---
title: 'Jobs Report Just Forced The Fed to Wait'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=LfoWzedzphQ'
video_id: 'LfoWzedzphQ'
date: 2026-08-01
duration_sec: 229
---

# Jobs Report Just Forced The Fed to Wait

> Source: [Jobs Report Just Forced The Fed to Wait](https://youtube.com/watch?v=LfoWzedzphQ)

## Summary

The video analyzes the April jobs report and its implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. It covers job additions, unemployment, wage growth, and updated rate cut probabilities, concluding that the solid report means the Fed is unlikely to cut rates soon.

### Key Points

- **Video overview** [00:02] — This is a shorter video because the information will be included in upcoming planned videos.
- **Jobs added in April** [00:14] — 115,000 jobs were added for the month of April, beating expectations of 55,000.
- **Historical job growth context** [00:28] — For the past 16 months, job additions have been choppy, with some months adding 180,000 and others losing 150,000. Numbers are way down compared to 2022, 2023, and 2024.
- **Unemployment rate unchanged** [00:57] — The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.3%. The Fed's latest projections expect it to end the year at 4.4%, which is still within good standing.
- **Wage growth not keeping up with inflation** [01:24] — Average wage growth is 3.6%, which is not keeping up with inflation, causing Americans to lose purchasing power.
- **M2 money supply expansion** [01:50] — M2 money supply has been expanding at a rate of 5% for the past year. The difference between 5% and wage growth indicates the purchasing power lost by the average American.
- **June rate cut odds after report** [02:20] — Before the report, there was a 4.7% chance of a rate cut at the June 17 meeting. After the report, odds increased to 6.1%, but there is still a 93.9% chance of no cut.
- **July rate cut odds after report** [02:48] — Before the report, there was an 8.8% chance of a rate cut by July. After the report, odds increased to 12.1%, but the odds still heavily favor no change.
- **No need for Fed to cut rates** [03:15] — The jobs report was not a disaster, so the labor market does not need rescuing. Therefore, it makes no sense for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June or July.
- **Sign-off** [03:41] — The presenter asks viewers to subscribe for updates and wishes a happy Friday.

### Conclusion

The April jobs report was stronger than expected, and with unemployment stable and wage growth lagging inflation, the Federal Reserve has no urgent reason to cut interest rates, making a June or July cut highly unlikely.

## Transcript

highlights. And today's video is going to be a shorter video because this information is going to be included in the upcoming videos that I have planned Okay, so when looking at the reports, if you take a look at the report at face
value, then it's a solid report. 115,000 jobs added for the month of April. So this beat expectations of 55,000. Now, I want to show you this chart so that you have some context and you can
compare. So as you can see for the past about 16 months, it's been choppy the amount of jobs added per month. Certain months will add 180,000 jobs and then another month will lose 150,000 jobs.
And as you can see, the numbers are way down compared to 2022, 23, and 24. Now, I want to show you the unemployment rate. And this is the most important they're taking a look at the labor markets.
So the rate of unemployment remains unchanged at a 4.3%. In their latest projections, they expect that the unemployment rate is going to that the unemployment rate is going to end the year at 4.4%.
So where we are right now at 4.3% is still within good standing according to their expectations. So in other words, we are not at a like a freak out moment where the Federal Reserve needs to make an emergency or a critical decision.
Essentially, they can just sit back and relax for now if it's at 4.3%. Now, I want you to take a look at the average growth in wages. And as you can see, wages are growing at a rate of 3.6%. In my opinion, this is actually
not good because it means that wage growth is not keeping up with the rate of inflation and Americans continue to lose purchasing power. So if you take a look at the M2 money
you're going to see that it's been expanding at a rate of of 5% for the past year. So, I've marked off 5% on the chart and the difference between 5% and the wage growth is how much purchasing power that
the average American has lost over the past year or so. Okay, now I want to changed the odds of an interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. FedWatch tool. The next Federal Reserve meeting's going
to take place on June 17th. And before today's report, there was a 4.7% chance that they would cut interest rates at that meeting in June. After the jobs report, the odds of a rate cut in June have increased from
rate cut in June have increased from 4.7% to 6.1%. So, yes, it went up. However, there's still a 93.9% chance that the Federal Reserve's not going to cut interest rates in June. And now I want to show
you the odds for the July meeting. Before the jobs report was released today, there was an 8.8% chance that interest rates would be lower by the July meeting. Now, after the jobs report was released,
the odds of a rate cut have increased from 8.8% to 12.1%. So, although the odds of a rate cut have increased for June and July, the odds are still highly in favor of no change to the interest rate. Anyways, I want
you to understand the situation. The situation is that the jobs report was not a disaster. Therefore, well, just think about it. If it wasn't a disaster, then the labor markets does not need any rescuing,
Therefore, it makes no sense for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. probabilities remain high that they're not going to remain high that they're not going to cut interest rates in June or July.
status update on the labor markets. Please subscribe. I'll keep you updated very happy Friday. Thank you, and take care.