---
title: 'If Bitcoin Breaks This Level… $44K Is Next (Here’s the Plan)'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=jpSKVxgfru4'
video_id: 'jpSKVxgfru4'
date: 2026-08-17
duration_sec: 868
channel: 'Jude Umeano'
---

# If Bitcoin Breaks This Level… $44K Is Next (Here’s the Plan)

> Source: [If Bitcoin Breaks This Level… $44K Is Next (Here’s the Plan)](https://youtube.com/watch?v=jpSKVxgfru4)

## Summary

The video presents a technical analysis of Bitcoin, arguing that a drop to $44,000 is not only possible but necessary for the market to reset and sustain a future bull run. The creator, Jude, outlines two main reasons for this potential decline—a fair value gap on the yearly chart and consistent percentage drops in trading ranges—and provides a detailed trading strategy to profit from the move regardless of direction.

### Key Points

- **Bitcoin $44K Prediction** [00:02] — Jude reiterates his earlier prediction of Bitcoin dropping to $44,000, a level he mentioned in January when Bitcoin was above $90,000. He notes that Bitcoin has already dipped below $60,000, and he believes a further drop is necessary to fill a fair value gap and reset the market for a new all-time high.
- **Yearly Fair Value Gap** [01:38] — On the yearly chart, there is a fair value gap between the current year's bottom and the 2023 candle's top. Jude explains that fair value gaps typically get filled, and this one represents the reset needed for a sustainable bull season.
- **Percentage Drop Pattern** [02:41] — Jude identifies a pattern of percentage drops between trading ranges: a 36% drop from the first range top to the second range bottom, a 38% drop from the second to the third, and a projected 40% drop from the current range top, which would put Bitcoin at approximately $44,700.
- **Macro Support for Drop** [03:48] — Macro factors, particularly the ongoing war, support the potential drop. In times of uncertainty, money flows out of risk assets like Bitcoin into safe havens like USD and gold. The dollar index shows a change of character, signaling potential upward movement, which would weaken Bitcoin.
- **If-Then Trading Approach** [04:47] — Jude recommends an 'if this, then that' approach to trade regardless of direction. He marks breaker structures and changes of character on the 4-hour chart, then drops to lower timeframes (15-minute and 5-minute) to identify points of interest and wait for confirmation.
- **Trading the Range** [05:32] — Bitcoin is currently within a range. A break below the range low could lead to a move toward $44,000, while a break above the range high could signal a move higher. Jude emphasizes waiting for a proper break, not just an internal break, before taking action.
- **Supply Zone Entries** [07:33] — If the protected low is taken out with a candle body closure, Jude would look for supply zones to enter short, targeting lower levels and eventually the $44,000 zone. He marks multiple supply zones on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts as potential reversal areas.
- **Alert and 5-Minute Confirmation** [10:25] — Jude sets an alert at a demand zone on the 1-hour chart. When price reaches this zone, he drops to the 5-minute timeframe to wait for a change of character with a candle closure before entering a long position, with a stop loss below and targets at higher highs.
- **Risk-to-Reward Ratios** [12:39] — Jude calculates risk-to-reward ratios for potential trades: 1.69 and 2.56 for risk entries, and 4.41, 4.48, and 7.18 for entries after a change of character on the 5-minute chart. He personally requires at least a 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio before taking a trade.
- **Avoid Overcomplicating** [14:00] — Jude concludes by warning against learning too much, which leads to overcomplicating trading. He emphasizes sticking to the simple if-then approach and watching for break of structure and change of character on lower timeframes.

### Conclusion

The video provides a clear, data-driven case for a potential Bitcoin drop to $44,000, supported by technical patterns and macro factors. Jude offers a practical trading framework that allows traders to profit from both upward and downward moves, emphasizing simplicity and risk management.

## Transcript

we'll be seeing a $44,000 Bitcoin. People don't like it when I say this. In January this year, I said I am only considering buying Bitcoin at $70,000. That ain't going to happen in no day of
Some said it would never happen because Bitcoin was actually sitting comfortably Bitcoin was actually sitting comfortably above $90,000. And it seems only up from there. But just a few weeks later
>> Three weeks later. >> Bitcoin didn't just dip, but it went below $60,000. This is a tweet I dropped recently asking if Bitcoin could drop further to $44,000. Again, some said it would never
happen. But if you look at the follow-up tweet, Bitcoin has already pulled away from that supply zone. In this video, I'm going to show you why a $44,000 Bitcoin is not just a possibility, but a
necessity for the end of the bear season, for a new all-time high, >> [music] >> and how to trade it profitably, whether price actually goes up or go down. My name is Jude. [music]
My mission is helping aspiring traders make their first 10K trading. If that is what you are working towards, subscribe and hit that bell icon. So, you would want to also go to the description and join the wait list of the app that I am
building that lets you connect your trading accounts and automatically copy my trades for free while being in total control of your risk exposure.
there are two reasons why Bitcoin could drop below $44,000. First, let's look at the big picture narrative from the yearly candle. So, this is yearly candle. This is the current bottom we have here from this
year's candle. [music] And here is a top of the 2023 candle. You can see there's there's a [music] fair value gap between them. This is the only fair value gap in this chart. If you're a trader,
you would know that fair value gap always eventually get filled. It is >> [music] >> for price. And in this case, it's just simply the reset we need for Bitcoin to start going up, and
it is what we need for a real bull season to sustain itself. If you go to the daily chart as well, if you look at this, we had a range here then it dropped. Another range here,
then it dropped. And this range is also similar. We might as well. Now, the interesting thing is that if you check out the percentage drop. [music] So, for this first one, from the
[music] So, for this first one, from the top of this range to the bottom of the second range is a 36% [music] um drop. um drop. From the top of the second range to the
From the top of the second range to the bottom of the third range is a 38% drop. [music] So, if you look at the top of this particular range we are in, from here, and we draw it down,
>> a 40% drop puts us at 44,700. is [music] actually filling that gap that we saw on the higher time frame. And from here, we can see some ranges, and [music] price could
just start shooting up from this particular region. [music] Now, beyond these charts, there are other things that that will support the possible movement down. One is the the it one is macro. Now, beyond these
charts, macros is actually supporting this drop, especially the ongoing war. So, in times of uncertainties like the current war, money usually flow out from risk asset like Bitcoin into safe haven asset like
like Bitcoin into safe haven asset like USD and gold. And if you also look at USD and gold. And if you also look at the dollar index, we had a change of character here after this particular range that started in 2005
May. After this range, we have the first change of character here, signaling that we can now have um price start going up from [music] this particular the bearish [music] disposition of Bitcoin because when the
>> [music] >> we'll start seeing the weakening of Bitcoin. Now, the real question is, this? The best way to do this is using the if
then that [music] approach. This way, even if Bitcoin doesn't go down to $44,000 and start going up from where it currently [music] is, you can still profit from the move. The simplest way I do this is this. I
mark all the breaker structures and change of character on the 4-hour and Then, I go down to identify the points [music] of interest, areas of reversal, then wait for confirmation to take that trade
on the 15-minute and the 5-minute time frame. So, let's get to that. So, this >> [music] >> And we are currently within this range. >> to here.
Okay? If we break down, just like I mentioned earlier, if you break down below this level, >> [music] >> Okay?
>> Okay? And if we go above this level here, then And if we go above this level here, then I'm seeing um we going [music] higher. or to take out this first. Or we can start going higher from here.
>> But we are currently in this range, right? So, we can actually trade this range pending what happens. So, if you look at this from [music] this um angle a break. Now, this is not a proper break because if you want to look at a break,
you want to look [music] at something like this. Something like this before you call it a break. But >> I can call this an internal break. Okay, so I'm going to mark it out, this
Again, I said mark out all your breaker [music] structures and change of So, if you look at this price action, we had this movement. [music]
We all had a break. And we had uh it go lower again. Then another break this way. So, this is the next [music] break, this particular It's the next break. Okay? [music] So, this is a low. It's a
Okay? [music] So, this is a low. It's a protected low. Okay? So, this is a low we are [music] looking at. So, if this low gets taken out, if this low we have here gets [music]
taken out, then from what we see here right now, it is not yet taken out. Because this [music] is a candle. This is a wick.
>> [music] >> The candle body is what confirms it. So, if we have had this [music] taken out with a candle body closure, then I am more inclined to
look for a [music] supply zone to take an entry to take this lower, to take out >> from here. Then from here, we can go lower to take out this this one. And we are more likely to start going [music] deeper
likely to start going [music] deeper into this particular $44,000 zone. As it stands now, this is the low we should be looking at. So, the next [music] now mark here is possible areas of reversal. This is one.
Let me remove this [music] bigger um rectangle. here. This is another supply zone >> [music] >> So, these are areas that we can see
>> So, these are areas that we can see possible reversal from. So, what I like to do is actually to label that means a 4-hour supply zone is >> [music] >> supply zone. Right now, I can now go to
So, the 1-hour time frame, this is another supply zone that we are looking Okay? And you can see here that this supply zone has been taken out. So, I can potentially call this [music] a break of structure, this one.
Even though I really need this to break above [music] this before I can call it a break of structure. I need to break this high here. So, this one is basically a supply zone
here. This tells me that because we are having this price [music] action this Okay, this price action this way. Right? having [music] internal breaker structure here. So,
what could have possibly happen is that we see this retrace into this region, [music] then we can go higher to this supply zone. And we can wait for a shift here
to go lower. [music] Or if it breaks it, then we'll have to consider a supply zone above here before we start attacking >> um these lows here. All right?
So, from here, I could then mark out supply [music] zones again. So, if you look at this, if you go if I open this, within here is a [music] fair value gap. Here, you can see it.
Okay? Then, [music] we have a 1-hour supply A demand zone, rather, in this [music] candle. So, all price needs to do is to retrace to this [music] point
to this point and we can go higher from here. So, this is the play I'll be looking at for this particular As simple as this. Like, I could choose to go down further, but [music] So, what
I would do is it is simply to do this. I'm going to mark out this zone and [music] just put an alert. Put an alert here. So, that I'm reminded when price comes
>> Now, what you want to do is when price comes to this zone, you want to go down to the 5-minutes time [music] frame. In the 5-minutes time frame right now. [music] So, this is a smaller time frame. In the 5-minutes time frame,
you don't just take your trade from here. If I'm to take my trade from here, mind you, this is my [music] Let me take this back to the 1-hour.
>> [music] >> So, I could be targeting this zone and ultimately targeting this zone. So, what I could do if [music] I'm just taking a risk entry is to do this. Take a
>> [music] >> I could target the low from here >> I could target the low from here and aim for this high. This gives me a 1.69 risk-to-reward ratio. [music] Or aim for this high, this gives me a 2.56
the way I trade, you know [music] I don't take a trade unless I'm having at least a three risk-to-reward ratio [music] um before I take that trade. So, that is why it's important that you now go down
>> [music] >> Now, at this point, what you want to do is this. When price drops into this zone When price drops [music] into this zone On the 5-minutes, you want to see price do this.
trade. So, if you look at this, if you zoom into this [music] this way. Then, we have a change of character this way.
>> When price gives you a change of character, this is the point that in this zone, which is the hour zone of interest, right? [music] Our point of interest. This is where you now want to take your trade from a long position
from this Once you have [music] the candle closure confirming that change of character You want to take it from there. >> Your stop loss below. Right? By aiming for just this high
the high of this candle we're seeing here now, you already have a 4.41. >> at this high that we have here we are already >> [music] >> at a 4. 41. If you are taking this high
>> [music] >> 48. And this last high here is a 7.18 [music] Now I am actually good at just three.
Once I get a three R um [music] I'm taking profit. Okay? But, >> [music] >> I could take some partial profit, my gains, my stop loss, and all that. So, this is basically how to trade it.
>> it's simply watch for where you get break of structure. Once that is [music] Just like I'm waiting for here. When we that trade. You want to go down to the lower time frame, 5-minutes, [music]
15-minutes, and wait for a change of character in that lower time frame you trade this way irrespective of what or what price is is doing, like on the higher time frame, my disposition based on what is happening
in the behavior of the chart is that price is going to go down. Okay? But, you can see on the lower time frame, 4-hour, 1-hour I'm seeing [music] opportunities to go long. You don't take trade based on what [music] you think
the general time frame is. You just use the if this then that approach. If this happens, then I'm doing [music] this. And that's how simple it is. One of the biggest mistakes that hold
[music] traders back is learning too much. And when you learn too much, you simply overcomplicate [music] things. overcomplicate [music] things. If you want the simplest way
to trade then you need to watch this video here.