[0:01] Wow, what a wipeout in the stock market.
[0:04] We need to talk about what's going on
[0:06] and specifically the Bank of America red
[0:10] dragon warning. Really, the dragon
[0:12] warning. It's just often called a red
[0:15] dragon because well, it means stocks end
[0:17] up going red. We're going to talk about
[0:19] that. We're going to break down exactly
[0:21] what's going on with this liquidity
[0:23] issue coming from SpaceX, Google, and
[0:26] the timing around these. Very important.
[0:29] uh some miscellaneous other news in
[0:30] addition to what's going on with Micron
[0:32] Wednesday. We already have a full
[0:34] breakdown video on that. Uh then we'll
[0:35] be moving into the Bank of America
[0:37] Dragon warning and then of course we'll
[0:39] talk about the Federal Reserve and
[0:40] something that's really contributing to
[0:42] some of the pain that we're seeing
[0:43] today. So let's get some of the simpler
[0:46] news out of the way first. Uh of course
[0:48] you've probably already seen it at this
[0:49] point. SpaceX is refinancing about $20
[0:52] billion of their debt that was really
[0:55] due within the next year. And so it
[0:57] makes sense they're trying to get rid of
[0:59] that debt. But the problem is they're
[1:00] already going back to the market after
[1:02] raising 75 billion plus another10
[1:04] billion dollar green shoe. And now
[1:06] they're hitting up bankers for even more
[1:08] money. It is a suck of liquidity.
[1:11] There's only so much to go around. Uh
[1:13] and so unsurprisingly that momentum that
[1:17] SpaceX had been experiencing with just
[1:19] 4.2ish% two-ish percent of the stock
[1:21] available to trade. Uh that really
[1:24] helped propel the stock up well over
[1:26] $200 uh up to like $217 per share after
[1:30] IPO has now completely reversed as that
[1:34] initial lack of access for shares and
[1:38] momentum trading has turned into a
[1:41] downward trending disaster. The stock
[1:44] now down 16.4%
[1:47] just on the day. This is not a surprise.
[1:50] This is what we expected going through
[1:51] the company's fundamentals. Although, I
[1:54] will say it happened about a week
[1:55] earlier than I expected. I thought we'd
[1:57] have at least until that NASDAQ 100
[2:01] inclusion before we'd start seeing
[2:02] SpaceX fall. It started falling before
[2:05] that. And you know, usually the market
[2:07] is forward looking, so maybe that's not
[2:08] a terrible surprise. But as a result,
[2:10] the NASDAQ is also going down in part
[2:12] because of SpaceX. Because even though
[2:14] SpaceX isn't part of NASDAQ, the NASDAQ
[2:16] 100, we expect it will be within 15 days
[2:19] of trading. And so therefore, when
[2:21] SpaceX plummets, people start selling
[2:23] off the index as a whole, which then
[2:25] indiscriminately sells everything.
[2:28] That's not great at the same time as you
[2:30] have liquidity concerns. Look at, for
[2:32] example, what's happening over at
[2:33] Google. We had already previously heard
[2:35] about the $80 billion stock sale, but
[2:38] the timing of it of that $80 billion
[2:40] stock sale actually really matters. See,
[2:43] Berkshire Hathaway underwrote about a
[2:45] $10 billion private placement and they
[2:47] got a discount for doing that of about
[2:49] 7%. Which I personally thought was not
[2:51] enough. They should really be trying to
[2:52] go for like a reinvest style 20%
[2:55] discount like we do on real estate. So,
[2:57] I think this was a little surprising. I
[2:59] think Greg Ael kind of needed to show he
[3:00] was able to do a deal and get a
[3:02] discount, but it certainly wasn't what
[3:04] we're used to when it comes to Buffett
[3:06] style negotiated discounts. So a 7%
[3:09] discount has already basically been
[3:10] evaporated in the market. And the issue
[3:12] with that is what's going on with the
[3:14] other $70 billion that Google is trying
[3:16] to move into the market with their stock
[3:18] sale. $30 billion of which are expected
[3:21] to hit the market as soon as the end of
[3:24] June. So that means between June and
[3:27] July and August, we're expecting to see
[3:29] $30 billion of Google stock dump so
[3:32] Google can raise money for their
[3:33] artificial intelligence endeavors. But
[3:35] on top of that, their at the money $40
[3:37] billion portion begins in the third
[3:40] quarter as well, which is July, August,
[3:42] September. So you potentially have this
[3:44] overlapping $70 billion of selling
[3:46] pressure for Google. And so it's no
[3:49] surprise that right now the stock is
[3:51] down about 12% off all-time highs. Still
[3:54] obviously a great company, still doing
[3:56] really well. It's up 33% year to date.
[3:58] So you can't really, you know, uh, slate
[4:01] them here for for wanting to raise
[4:02] money. But the point is it's happening
[4:04] at the same time as SpaceX is raising
[4:06] money. At the same time, companies are
[4:08] starting to go, it's getting a little
[4:09] more expensive and harder to raise money
[4:11] at the same time as yields keep rising
[4:14] following Worsh. Now, we're going to
[4:16] talk a lot about that because obviously
[4:18] yields have been rising. If we actually
[4:20] look at the bond market, we can see the
[4:21] 10-year is up about six basis points
[4:23] today. The 2-year as well. So, the
[4:25] entire yield curve just moved in the
[4:27] bearish direction. We didn't really get
[4:29] any kind of flattening or steepening. we
[4:30] just went straight bearish where
[4:32] basically both the 10 and the two are
[4:34] going up aggressively in the same
[4:36] direction. Not ideal. And eventually it
[4:39] becomes a longerterm risk for the stock
[4:41] market because one of the things that
[4:42] keeps the stock market moving is the
[4:45] fact that there's been relatively cheap
[4:47] access to capital. But SpaceX, because
[4:50] its fundamentals are kind of crappy, is
[4:53] having to raise at higher interest rates
[4:55] than people expected. Especially now
[4:57] with the stock falling, you're probably
[4:58] going to see even more of a premium for
[5:01] SpaceX level bonds. And it just means
[5:03] the entire artificial intelligence
[5:04] capital stack has to pay more money in
[5:07] interest than they could spend on
[5:08] hardware or otherwise. That said, we
[5:11] still had decent movement today on
[5:13] stocks like uh Micron or SanDisk. Micron
[5:17] today was up 6.8% which is great. Marll
[5:20] was pretty much flat today. SanDisk was
[5:22] up 4%. A lot of this is anticipation
[5:25] around uh not only earnings for Micron
[5:27] on Wednesday, but they also had this
[5:29] really weird which I thought was just
[5:31] sort of a pump announcement. This
[5:33] morning, Micron announced basically
[5:35] nothing right before earnings, but it
[5:37] got a lot of news attention where Micron
[5:40] announced that they are partnering with
[5:42] Anthropic to optimize systems for
[5:44] workloads and secure the supply that
[5:47] Anthropic needs. And so then when I
[5:50] actually got to like, okay, cool. So
[5:51] what does this mean? like you guys can
[5:52] make a chip together, you guys going to
[5:54] like invest in a fab together? No, it
[5:57] literally says Micron and Anthropic are
[6:00] basically agreeing to quote will I
[6:03] should rephrase the grammar here, but
[6:04] I'll just quote it here. Micron and
[6:06] Anthropic quote will analyze how memory
[6:10] and storage subsystems perform across
[6:13] various workloads and interact across
[6:16] the full infrastructure stack. Like
[6:18] what? Wait, so you guys announced this
[6:21] crazy multi-year partnership to analyze
[6:25] how things are going and you know to me
[6:27] that helped pump those stocks today
[6:29] because pretty much everything else sold
[6:30] off. You know in this morning's alpha
[6:32] report uh a few things happened. Uh we
[6:34] correctly identified that software was
[6:36] still going to be bearish for the next 3
[6:37] to 6 months. This is not a very hard
[6:39] estimate to make but we did correctly
[6:41] say like be careful. Uh we also did
[6:43] correctly say that SpaceX we maintain
[6:45] our bearishness on it. And if you
[6:48] actually look at SpaceX this morning in
[6:50] the pre-market, and mind you, I'm in
[6:51] Hawaii, so the time zone is crazy, but
[6:53] in the pre-market, SpaceX was actually
[6:56] okay. It was down like a percent or two.
[6:58] And in our alpha report, we're like
[7:00] super bearish on SpaceX. The thing
[7:02] freaking tanks another 14%. So, the
[7:04] alpha hit it there. Where it did not hit
[7:06] though was, and I should have seen this
[7:08] coming. It's hard to be bearish SpaceX
[7:11] and bullish on the cues, and that was my
[7:13] fault. Last week, I was optimistic on us
[7:16] getting over 740, regaining an easy 735
[7:20] on the NASDAQ and breaking through 740.
[7:23] That's what happened last week. Today, I
[7:26] was bullish that we'd be able to push
[7:28] further and through those levels.
[7:31] Unfortunately, I didn't reconcile that
[7:32] if SpaceX tanks, even though it's not in
[7:34] the index, it's also potentially going
[7:36] to take the market with it a little bit.
[7:38] Now, the market only went down 25 basis
[7:40] points on the cues, so NASDAQ 100 isn't
[7:42] really down that much. Uh and news out
[7:44] of Iran was pretty much just
[7:45] embarrassing and didn't really move any
[7:47] needles this weekend. We've got oil
[7:49] flowing in the straight of Hormuz. We
[7:51] know that we've given up a lot to Iran.
[7:54] Iran has a lot of strength that they
[7:56] didn't have previously. Iran not only
[7:59] able to likely monetize the straight of
[8:00] horses, but frankly they they might not
[8:02] even need a bomb to exert their
[8:06] leverage. They have a new bomb called
[8:08] the straight of Hormuz. Iran is keeping
[8:09] their missiles. They're gaining leverage
[8:11] over Donald Trump. At the same time,
[8:13] Trump is undermining Israel in their
[8:15] fight in Lebanon. So, it really seems
[8:18] like, as The Economist puts it, that
[8:19] Iran is going to get their yellow cake
[8:22] and eat it too, which is of course a
[8:25] reference to highlyenriched uranium.
[8:28] Anyway, uh so, you know, none of that
[8:31] really ideal. some of these negotiations
[8:33] with Vance. You know, there were some
[8:35] moments over the weekend about what was
[8:36] going on, but so far most of this ended
[8:39] up relatively bullish. The problem that
[8:42] really hit markets, in my opinion, is
[8:44] this liquidity issue with SpaceX and
[8:46] Google, those Google shares starting to
[8:48] hit the market, but also the warning
[8:49] around what Bank of America calls the
[8:53] dragon. Now, the dragon is basically an
[8:56] instance where all of a sudden you see
[8:59] the CPI rate go above the unemployment
[9:03] rate and that's a concern where the
[9:06] unemployment rate is low, you know,
[9:08] 4.3ish%
[9:10] right now. Uh, and the expectation is
[9:13] that CPI inflation in the United States
[9:17] could exceed that 4.3%. Right now, in
[9:20] the last 12 months, ending May of 2026,
[9:22] it was at 4.2. 2%. Now, of course, we
[9:26] expect that's going to roll over. Well,
[9:29] at least I do. But because of the
[9:33] near-term damage that does to the
[9:35] economy uh by keeping rates higher for
[9:38] longer, you could actually be
[9:40] intentionally keeping rates higher to
[9:43] fight down CPI like Kevin Walsh said he
[9:46] was going to do, especially when CPI
[9:49] exceeds the unemployment rate. Now you
[9:51] have to stay high for even longer, more
[9:53] aggressive with those rates, which means
[9:55] you squeeze AI liquidity even more at a
[9:59] time when it might not be that capable
[10:01] of absorbing any more of that squeeze. I
[10:03] mean, Satya Nadella literally just
[10:05] started talking about the
[10:06] commoditization of artificial
[10:07] intelligence, which you know, it's not
[10:09] great when they start talking about
[10:10] this. We started talking about this. I
[10:12] mean, well, we started warning about
[10:14] this years ago, but more recently,
[10:16] Google's IO really told us the
[10:18] commoditization is starting where we're
[10:20] starting to see the growth rates in
[10:22] token usage on a second derivative fall.
[10:25] That's scary. Basically, we grew token
[10:28] usage 50x from 24 to 25 on a 1-month
[10:32] period. And then from 25 to 26, we grew
[10:34] at 6.7x.
[10:36] So, the growth rate is negative on token
[10:39] usage. At the same time, we've got more
[10:41] efficient models, more efficient chips.
[10:43] Uh, and so that value per token is
[10:45] starting to fade. It's probably also why
[10:48] we're starting to see stocks like Google
[10:50] fall because Google had really been
[10:52] crushing it with their Gemini model in
[10:54] November of last year. Anthropic really
[10:56] took the lead here in the spring, but
[10:58] now you're actually seeing a little bit,
[11:00] this is me saying this early, a little
[11:03] bit of a chat GPT resurgence. I hate to
[11:05] say it, but but they're they're you
[11:06] know, all of them are close, but I'm
[11:08] seeing a little bit of an edge ahead in
[11:10] chat right now. Uh and maybe that's why
[11:12] there's no surprise that you've actually
[11:14] got one of the co-leads of Gemini and a
[11:17] VP of engineering, uh Noam Charzier.
[11:21] Probably screwed that name up. Sorry.
[11:23] But anyway, he just left Google to join
[11:26] Open AI and he had been only been there
[11:28] for like two years or whatever, but
[11:31] whatever, you know. So, all of this kind
[11:32] of comes together. So what is the dragon
[11:34] warning? Well, the dragon is basically
[11:37] the Fed keeping rates too high for too
[11:40] long and then what you end up with is
[11:42] what is called a bare flattener. A bare
[11:45] flattener is basically when we
[11:47] cyclically go from a boom. Commodities
[11:50] are winning like gold earlier this year.
[11:53] Stocks are booming. Everything's
[11:54] booming. Kevin Worsh gets appointed. It
[11:57] signals the top for gold, the top for
[11:59] some commodities, but it also post the
[12:02] Iran war ceasefire at the beginning of
[12:04] April, quote unquote ceasefire, what do
[12:06] we get? We start getting a bare
[12:08] flattening. Remember on Okay, let me
[12:10] explain this because I know this one's a
[12:12] little complicated and convoluted.
[12:14] Basically, there's this line called the
[12:16] spread between the 2-year yield and the
[12:19] 10-year yield. And if you chart the
[12:21] difference between the two, you get a
[12:23] curve, which is a fancy mathematical way
[12:25] of calling a line something that goes up
[12:28] and down. Okay, Iran war starts, that
[12:31] sucker goes all the way up to 71, which
[12:34] is like well in shock territory. It's
[12:36] often the market starting to say, "Crap,
[12:38] we're possibly going to have to print
[12:40] money because we're going to get driven
[12:42] into a recession with the closed
[12:43] straight of our moves." when we get
[12:45] ceasefire and now we're starting to see
[12:47] a recovery post that or have seen that
[12:49] in the stock market. What do we actually
[12:50] have? We have a very low uh spread
[12:54] between the two. In fact, we are at the
[12:56] lowest levels in all of Donald Trump's
[13:00] second term and we are at the lowest
[13:03] levels that we have seen since uh right
[13:07] before his term about December of 2024.
[13:11] That is a sign that that curve is
[13:14] flattening. The number is going down.
[13:16] When the number goes down, it means it's
[13:18] flattening and it's bearish because
[13:20] while the spread is shrinking or
[13:23] flattening, yields are going up. And
[13:26] that Bank of America says usually means
[13:29] we are moving into an era of stagflation
[13:33] where cash is more desirable. Now, the
[13:37] only way we can really get bailed out of
[13:40] this is if inflation rolls over. So, we
[13:43] get oil prices fall more than they
[13:45] already have, right? Because even though
[13:47] oil prices are down, they're still
[13:49] obviously up from where we have been. If
[13:51] we look at uh oil prices right now,
[13:53] we're at 78 on Brent. At the beginning
[13:55] of the year, we were at like 60 bucks a
[13:56] barrel. So, we're well above where we
[13:59] were at the beginning of the year. I
[14:00] mean, we dropped to like 59 there. kind
[14:02] of dragging dragging along the anchor,
[14:04] if you will, along the floor of 60 bucks
[14:06] there on Brent. So, we're still quite a
[14:08] bit higher. I mean, that's about 30%
[14:10] higher still on Brett, even though oil
[14:13] has come down. So, we're still more
[14:14] expensive on oil. Yields are rising
[14:17] because people are like, "Oh, AI
[14:19] spending isn't stopping." Yet, because
[14:21] AI spenders are spending and borrowing
[14:25] like crazy at the same time as yields
[14:26] are going up, people are going, "Man,
[14:28] there's actually not going to be as much
[14:30] money left because you're going to spend
[14:31] more on higher interest rates." Look at
[14:33] what's happening with SpaceX. Now,
[14:36] again, you get bailed out of this by
[14:40] oil falling and ideally AI disinflation
[14:44] and a tariff rollover. So, we want a lot
[14:46] of disinflation. If we get disinflation,
[14:50] then we could go back to bullishness
[14:53] where yields come down. That would be
[14:57] really, really good. We want that. What
[15:00] we don't want is yields to come down and
[15:02] then we go back into a reinverted yield
[15:05] curve because the Fed was too late and
[15:08] then we end up triggering a recession.
[15:10] Now, that's moving way too far down the
[15:13] curve. And I'm sorry to talk, you know,
[15:16] so like I feel like I I'm speaking in
[15:18] tongue about this. So, I'm just going to
[15:20] try to simplify this. Uh, just to to
[15:22] send this point home, okay? Go to
[15:24] mekevin.com, join the courses of
[15:26] building your wealth. Use coupon code
[15:27] pope. You could see the co pope's nod. I
[15:30] almost said cop pope pope's nod on
[15:33] Instagram. You can follow me there or on
[15:34] Twitter. You can see some uh pictures on
[15:36] Instagram from Hawaii. Uh but anyway,
[15:39] let's let's focus for a moment on on
[15:40] rephrasing that and get into some of the
[15:42] other data here. Uh that coupon, by the
[15:44] way, we've got another like week and a
[15:46] bit before that comes to expire. So,
[15:47] there's no major rush, but if you want
[15:49] to join the alpha membership and see
[15:50] what we're talking about every day and
[15:51] what stocks we're looking at, you can
[15:53] always do that over at mekevin.com. Uh
[15:55] now, and and keep in mind, you know, I'm
[15:56] not always perfect. I mean, I think the
[15:58] SpaceX calls were great. The calls on
[16:00] AMD and Marll and all of that in the
[16:02] near term were great. uh the last like I
[16:05] feel like five QQQ price targets we've
[16:07] had. We've hit them all. Just got a
[16:09] little too excited over this last week
[16:11] here without recognizing that SpaceX was
[16:14] going to drag the QQQ calls down. Uh so
[16:17] we missed that by about nine bucks on
[16:18] the QQQ for our near-term target. Little
[16:21] bummed about that, but that's also why I
[16:23] like studying what's going on in the
[16:25] market so we could talk knowledge
[16:27] knowledgeably. Let's make sure this is
[16:29] still recording. Yeah, we're still
[16:30] recording. Okay, good. knowledgeably
[16:32] about what the heck is uh is going on
[16:34] out there. So, to simplify this and then
[16:36] we're going to get into a little bit
[16:37] more data and and look at this from
[16:39] another point of view. Basically, uh the
[16:42] money vacuum is going on, right? You've
[16:44] got a lot of companies spending a lot of
[16:46] money chasing tokens when we don't
[16:49] actually really need that many more
[16:51] tokens. We're kind of plateauing out
[16:52] with the usage of artificial
[16:54] intelligence in terms of what it's good
[16:56] for. Yes, it's fantastic for coding.
[16:59] Yes, it's fantastic for cyber security,
[17:01] but beyond that, we sort of cap out and
[17:04] even in coding, there's going to be a
[17:06] cap out. There are only so many
[17:08] databases every engineer can make and
[17:10] eventually those have to have a usage
[17:12] and they have to prove profitability.
[17:13] And when you got Satiana going, "Yeah,
[17:15] go ahead open AAI, go to anyone else."
[17:18] What you really have is companies like
[17:20] Microsoft saying, "hm, all this crap is
[17:23] commoditizing so fast that we just need
[17:26] to be the one who actually profits from
[17:27] AI rather than goes all in on all of
[17:30] this capex." Now, they're still spending
[17:32] money and blowing money on capex, but
[17:34] that's going to flip. And the beauty
[17:35] about when that flips is Microsoft's all
[17:38] of a sudden going to look really
[17:40] profitable again. Now, that's not the
[17:42] case now. Microsoft stock was down like
[17:44] another 3% today. That's okay because
[17:46] right now they're still spending. Yeah.
[17:48] Down 3.18%. But what'll happen in the
[17:50] future is companies like Meta and
[17:52] Microsoft will actually turn around be
[17:54] like look at how much money we make. And
[17:56] people are going to be like wait I
[17:57] thought you were blowing all your money
[17:59] on capex. And then people are going to
[18:01] go or sp Microsoft and Met are going to
[18:03] go not anymore. We actually just make
[18:06] money through advertising and providing
[18:08] uh services you know productized
[18:10] services. Great. That's that's a cool
[18:13] long-term investment thesis for
[18:16] advertising plays or software plays.
[18:19] That's going to take time to play out
[18:20] though. In the near term, what we're
[18:22] most worried about is this dragon
[18:24] warning because Kevin Worsh is taking
[18:27] this approach of yeah uh I need to
[18:30] distance myself from uh Donald Trump
[18:33] pressuring me to cut rates. So, what's
[18:35] the easiest way to do that? Oh, uh let
[18:37] me just look at the clock over here. Oh,
[18:39] I know. I'll buy time. Now, how is Kevin
[18:43] Worsh going to possibly buy time if he
[18:46] just says, "Oh, yeah, JK, I don't want
[18:48] to cut rates. Donald Trump will just
[18:51] harp on him." Not that that necessarily
[18:53] should matter. Oh, Kevin Worsh could
[18:55] just end up being another drone Powell
[18:57] where you just take it. Um or you pull
[19:00] what Kevin Worsh did and you do a uh
[19:03] we're going to consult five different
[19:05] tasks for task forces and you know I
[19:08] think it's going to take them until the
[19:09] end of the year to really give me
[19:11] guidance on what's going on out there.
[19:13] So we're just going to be patient. It
[19:15] takes some time. Well that time gives
[19:19] him the luxury of saying to Donald
[19:22] Trump, "Hey, as soon as the task forces
[19:23] get back, we'll work at lower rates."
[19:27] But between now and then, he could
[19:28] actually make sure oil prices come down.
[19:30] He can make sure AI disinflation starts
[19:33] coming. Maybe some of the crazy capex
[19:35] investment starts slowing down. In that
[19:37] case, he's going to have a free license
[19:39] to cut rates. The problem with the
[19:41] dragon warning is how long can the
[19:44] economy sustain rates basically high
[19:48] while CPI is at the same level as the
[19:50] unemployment rate or higher. Basically
[19:53] in the same spot right now and then you
[19:55] end up crushing the economy. Now, not
[19:57] everybody thinks this way. You have the
[19:59] hawks over at TS Lombard who are
[20:02] actually pro a potential rate hike. They
[20:04] think inflation is going to last years.
[20:06] I think they're totally wrong. Now, in
[20:08] fairness, I know there are some of you
[20:10] right now that are like, "No, Kevin, I
[20:12] think you're wrong." But Kevin,
[20:16] inflation is going to stay higher for
[20:18] longer. That's fine. I respect that. I
[20:22] highly disagree with that. I highly
[20:24] think we are going to see massive
[20:27] deflation and the biggest concern that I
[20:30] have is that we have a Kevin Bush who
[20:32] doesn't help pump us out of that because
[20:33] we will be in the dumps for years. I
[20:36] hope that doesn't happen. Uh now the
[20:39] argument that the inflation hooks have
[20:42] is basically, oh this is good. Kevin
[20:44] Walsh taking his time and not rushing to
[20:47] cut rates is great. We were worried he
[20:49] was going to be too doubbish, especially
[20:52] at a time where tech companies are
[20:54] taking on more leverage. Uh, and what we
[20:57] need to do is keep rates high to prevent
[20:59] them from levering up too quickly.
[21:02] That's why we need to raise rates to
[21:04] constrain AI spending. Now, that's fair.
[21:08] I get it. Like, if it keeps going like
[21:10] drunken sailor style spending, sure. But
[21:13] if at the same time you stay hawkish on
[21:15] rates and the companies themselves start
[21:17] spending less money then you get
[21:19] pressure down on pressure down and you
[21:22] really rapidly you turn the economy
[21:24] down. So there are arguments here on
[21:26] both sides. The dragon just says we're
[21:29] at an aggressive time. In addition to
[21:31] what the dragon article says is that
[21:33] they talk about that right now the uh
[21:36] Bank of America bull bear indicator is
[21:38] sitting at a 9.2. This is a very high
[21:40] level. This is an extreme bull
[21:43] positioning. Their sell trigger
[21:45] triggered uh last month and uh of their
[21:49] last 17 sell signals since 2002, the
[21:53] average loss for global stocks over the
[21:55] next 2 to 3 months was 2 to 3% with a
[21:57] hit ratio of 60% and a max draw down of
[22:01] 20%. So, you know, I personally don't
[22:04] think any of that is scary enough to run
[22:05] for the exits, but I do think it is
[22:09] enough information to say, okay, maybe
[22:11] we have to be careful betting on this
[22:15] short-term everybody's going to believe
[22:16] in the disinflation narrative and the
[22:18] stock market's going to keep going to
[22:20] the moon at the same time as a meme like
[22:22] SpaceX rolls over, those probably don't
[22:25] align. Probably going to need some more
[22:27] patience. And the big thing that's next
[22:29] is Micron earnings. Now, if Micron
[22:31] misses on anything, one little thing,
[22:34] the stock will be down 16% or more,
[22:37] it'll be down like 30%. Overnight,
[22:40] there's no like and and I don't play
[22:42] earnings, so I'm not making this bet
[22:44] year. I'm just saying if I were a
[22:46] betting man, there's no way in hell I
[22:48] would buy calls for Micron. Now, famous
[22:51] last words, it could skyrocket the next
[22:53] day. Fine. I actually think Micron is
[22:56] relatively cheap, but all like there's
[22:59] so much hope on this company that one
[23:01] little thing they say wrong and that
[23:03] stock tanks and it'll tank really fast.
[23:07] Now, keep in mind I have a full micron
[23:09] video that I made at the end of last
[23:10] week. I highly encourage you watch it.
[23:12] It was basically in the same setting
[23:13] here. Uh and it, you know, it made it
[23:15] very clear what the expectations are for
[23:18] the company. At the same time that
[23:20] Microsoft Meta and Walmart are starting
[23:22] to limit their artificial intelligence
[23:24] usage. We talked about that. We also
[23:26] talked about the core components of why
[23:28] Micron is making so much money right
[23:30] now. Why they're sitting at a 1.1 peg
[23:32] which is very cheap, but what it
[23:35] requires to stay that cheap. All of that
[23:38] is in the other video. So that is more
[23:40] than a micron video. That is like your
[23:42] AI market video and I highly encourage
[23:44] you watch it. Rest in peace to Alan
[23:47] Greenspan. This is like losing a uh uh
[23:50] Jerome Powell of the prior generation.
[23:52] So, a little sad the guy was in um I
[23:55] mean he was a hund so you know good for
[23:57] him on that side. But uh you know he was
[23:59] if I have it correct he was in his
[24:01] chairmanship from 1987 through 2006.
[24:05] So the guy saw some stuff over at the
[24:07] Fed. But uh anyway that's what I got. So
[24:11] thank you so much for watching. Consider
[24:12] subscribing to the YouTube channel.
[24:13] Follow me on Instagram at me Kevin.
[24:15] Follow me on uh actually Instagram is
[24:18] real Kevin and yeah. No, no, no. That's
[24:20] right. Instagram is me Kevin. X is
[24:22] realme Kevin. Yeah, gold's down again
[24:24] over here. Uh and um yeah, consider
[24:27] sharing the video. Ah, yeah. Gold really
[24:29] peaked out right there when we said it
[24:31] would after that Kevin War confirmation.
[24:33] That was a good call. Uh but uh I can't
[24:36] get them all. My goal is just to be
[24:37] right more than I'm wrong, as everybody,
[24:40] right? Thank you so much for watching.
[24:41] We'll see you in the next one. Goodbye.
[24:42] Good luck and enjoy your day.