---
title: 'Tastylive July 21: Tesla, Google Earnings Preview, Nvidia''s $630B Math | Live Trading'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=DZwHowXJ3tw'
video_id: 'DZwHowXJ3tw'
date: 2026-08-07
duration_sec: 30540
---

# Tastylive July 21: Tesla, Google Earnings Preview, Nvidia's $630B Math | Live Trading

> Source: [Tastylive July 21: Tesla, Google Earnings Preview, Nvidia's $630B Math | Live Trading](https://youtube.com/watch?v=DZwHowXJ3tw)

## Summary

This episode of Tastylive covers a wide range of market topics on July 21st, including a preview of major earnings from Tesla and Google, an analysis of the gold and silver markets, and a discussion of trading strategies like diagonal spreads and broken wing butterflies. The show also features a deep dive into the bond market, Bitcoin, and the impact of geopolitical events on commodities like crude oil.

### Key Points

- **Earnings Preview: Tesla and Google** [00:57] — Tesla had a 5.6% implied move for earnings, while Google had a 19-point implied move. The market was in a waiting pattern ahead of these reports.
- **Gold Trading Strategy** [06:31] — Gold was short with a cost basis around 4162, using the one-month moving average as a guidepost. A close below 3955 was desired to add to the position.
- **Bitcoin Volatility and Price Action** [18:34] — Bitcoin had a 30-day implied volatility of 44% and an IVR of 1.3, indicating very low volatility. The price was attempting to break above a key resistance range of 66-67K.
- **Assignment Risk and Management** [08:42] — A research segment on option assignment showed that 61% of 30-delta strangles finish in the money, but only 11% pass 5% in the money. Cutting at 5% reduced losses, while cutting at 10% increased them.
- **DIA Diagonal Spread Trade** [35:35] — Dr. Jim Schultz put on a put diagonal spread in DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average), buying a 525 put in September and selling a 515 put in August for a $7 debit.
- **Macro Correlations: Oil and Rate Hikes** [52:31] — The 5-year break-even inflation rate was at 2.2%, and the correlation between oil prices and rate hike odds was -0.96, indicating a near-perfect inverse relationship.

## Transcript

kind of day, let's pull up the graphic and show the type of show we have in store today. You and I are going to talk about markets this morning at 8:30. We're going to get Liz to join us uh a little before the opening bell and
through the opening bell. And then we got Dr. Jim coming on solo doing the inside the trade. Then we have some tasty research uh that'll show up at 9:30 central time. Then we have uh at 10:00 a.m. be Chris and Liz doing live
trades. And then 11:30, something we started yesterday. And we're going to continue once again yourself um my me and Errol doing individual trades as well as Brent Kachuba from Spot Gaml. It's going to be great. Yep. Love it. Um
It's going to be great. Yep. Love it. Um yeah, we will uh be trading all day and we're waiting with baited breath for the Google and Tesla earnings tomorrow. Uh news and insights tab on Tasty Live if you want to check that out. But yeah, I
think Google is going to be interesting. You've got uh 19 point implied move and uh I think it's really going to be interesting to see what happens there all things considered. You've got Texas Instruments. Also, I put on a calendar
spread yesterday in there. Uh that one is going to be uh potential barn burner is going to be uh potential barn burner here. $284 stock, $28 implied move, but only a $32 implied move for the next week. So that's why I went with this
calendar spread. Long the 10day, short the 3-day. Uh we also have Tesla, of can we pull those Google earnings back up once again? Uh the preview. It's just interesting to me now just how much they have to focus on um you know, not only
point in time they they start talking about like data center revenue or companies, you know, like >> but those are the big numbers, right? Like cloud revenue, cloud margin, capex. I mean, uh, or or or if you're nasty,
don't, you know, whatever. But it these names. >> Yeah, I think it's going to these both on the revenue side, but also on the capex side or capeex side. I haven't
decided if I'm nasty yet. >> I know. Me neither. [laughter] Uh we'll have to see what happens there. But that's really uh that's going to be one of the driving needles of of these uh moves in the in the stocks. But
>> yep, >> Tesla had a big red day yesterday as I predicted many moons ago. Tesla [laughter] >> Tesla's selling off finally fulfilling the prophecy. I had this wild wild
assumption that Tesla would sell off uh when SpaceX IPOed, but seems like zero. Uh, >> yeah, this stock's been really quiet, honestly, over the last several months. Um, it's um I I don't even know why. I
attention to it that much to know if they they had any bad numbers, but I don't remember. But uh yet and still, I think maybe just the hype has died down some. Maybe that's what it is. >> And um I mean yet and still the options
are still like what in the top three every single day. People still trading really hasn't gone much of anywhere. >> Yeah, still super volatile. Um, but a 23 point implied move for the three-day cycle and that, you know, clocks in at
like 6% I want to say >> for the stock price. So definitely some >> Speaking of going down, Apple yesterday, right, after touching highs and it has right, after touching highs and it has been the the the the really good story
more recently as far as the Mac 7 goes and um big turnaround yesterday. You There's a lot, look, there's a lot of questions to be answered over the next roll into these earnings >> for sure. Uh, and then of course you
have IBM. That's going to be a really interesting one because uh they shot themselves in the foot and sold off 100 points in three days, four days last week. So >> definitely uh going to be wild to see
announced earnings and then the stock just like rips back up. That would be want to play for that. Something like that. the news is out, the stock's down, just kidding." And it goes up half the distance.
>> That's kind of my thought. Um I mean, I put on a short put that day. Um was it can't even remember. But I still have it on. Still deciding whether I'm going to keep it or just turn it into a different type of trade. Um like you said, like in
case it makes a real big move and I can play upside even better using like a diagonal calendar. We'll see. >> Yeah. But lots on the docket. Um, we've got Chris Veia on the line. I'd love to bring him in. I know Chris is a big
Canadian wine guy and we saw a headline this morning that your Canadian wine might get a little more expensive. Chris, how you doing this morning? >> Not great because apparently my Canadian wine got 50% more expensive overnight.
>> Yeah, sometimes it sometimes it'd be like that, you know. >> I mean, I didn't know neither. That's what I was just saying to him. I didn't know that that was that was such a thing. That's a delicacy. Canadian wine.
here, but I feel like Peter Griffin and Family Guy when he's like talking to what I learned today? Dogs uh don't lay eggs." [laughter] >> you got to say it like he right now. >> Hey, Brian. You know what they I can't
do it right now, [laughter] >> but you know that. have some really good I my one of my favorite wine regions is Austria. Austrian wine is [clears throat] very good. Yeah. It's like a pen noir on on
steroids. >> Pen noir on steroids. Huh. >> My wife went down the path of of taking the Somalier test a number of years ago having to go through all the wine tastings to help her practice. Um
some of that central European wine so petroly just not for me. >> Well, >> now we sound really pretentious. >> Can go further. >> I know we can.
>> we don't drink Long Island wine in this household. [laughter] That stuff is save >> Full circle. >> Oh, you Westchester people. [laughter] >> Um, how about this move in silver? Up almost 4%.
>> Double quadrupling the move in gold. >> I mean, hat tip off to to Ilia um if we put all the pieces together, the dollar was stronger yesterday. Yields were up. uh oil was higher and that has been a really toxic risk for the metals
in recent months and yet they kind of just took it on the chin and kept going. So today uh maybe perhaps a little bit of relief here. I'm still short gold right now. My cost basis is around 4162. Uh I'd like to get an ad below 3955 if
we clear out the yearly low, but we just haven't been able to push down through there yet. So depending upon what happens over the next few days, I'm fortunate enough that my my guidepost for trading short gold right now has
been the one-month moving average. Um something that we've closed below every single session since May 13th and rallies back into it end of May, middle beginning of July that they haven't crossed that threshold. So, if we were
from my view, not that the one month matters, but in terms of the character of this downtrend, something has broken and then being short would no longer be appropriate. So, um that's kind of what I'm watching for right now in the gold
hand, as I was talking about with yesterday with uh with Ilon, overtime, uh a close through 58 should be a golden ticket for a move higher. The fact that through 59 makes me feel like maybe I'm missing the boat a bit. So, I'm in dip
something may be changing here. The fact that gold and silver, uh, I mean, these have really, really hurt them in the recent weeks and months, they just not peique my interest. >> Is there any scenario you would,
excuse me, is there any scenario where you would remain short gold, but long you would remain short gold, but long silver? term. Um, [clears throat] you know, particularly if the AI trade is
retrenching and we're going through all this tariff jazz again. Uh, silver beta this tariff jazz again. Uh, silver beta is far too high in that regard. But days, I'm looking at this rebound from the lows that we had on the 16th. So,
we've gone from like 55 up to $59. Volatility is not expanding. One of the hallmarks of a sustainable bounce in the metals is volatility expansion alongside higher prices. And it's just not materializing right now. So, um I I
remain cautious here. I'm going to still stick short gold for the time being. Get us north of uh 4,100 and we can have a different conversation. >> Fair. >> Yeah. I think a lot of these uh even
though we're seeing a nice rally today in silver, little bit of a rally in gold that it's been such a fall far far fall. There you go. >> I was with you. I didn't I didn't notice that. [laughter] Yeah. So, yeah, I think
just like anything else, right? It's like if if silver like this today, another move like this today, then you're going to get the V expansion for sure. >> Um, so it's kind of a see if this is
actually something real and substantial and and sustainable. >> Go ahead, Chris. >> I mean, you got to look at what's happening with with yields in the dollar broadly speaking right now. um ZB, ZT,
they're all falling. Volatility is not going bonkers right now. And obviously volatility in the Treasury space typically is low, but uh ZB not for nothing maybe through 110 and a half today. ZN is getting closer, pushing
towards that 108 level. Uh Fed rate hike odds, they started to creep back up as well. The SR3s, for example, we're now pricing at a 20% chance of two hikes week where we were talking about like a 75% of only one and a 0% chance of two.
So these odds are starting to swing a little bit more. Um Mike, I'm going to assume that you guys think the same way. Whatever is happening right now in rates in oil probably can be subsumed by whatever happens with earnings tomorrow
with Alphabet with Tesla because those are just such significant components of the NASDAQ that yeah if yields go up another 10 basis points but earnings blow out the NASDAQ is going to run higher and kind of sweep this problem
under the rug for maybe a little bit longer. Yeah, I think it's a a slippery longer. Yeah, I think it's a a slippery slope though if they if they falter um and they have some, you know, slowing down issues or maybe the capex is too
big. If the market thinks the capex is too big relative to revenue, uh that could create a a big downside move, but I mean, we'll we're just going to have >> Today is an interesting day because it's like a a waiting waiting pattern. You
waiting pattern and and I don't know about you guys, but like, how do I want to say it? I don't want to say um there's really like they there's been a lot of dispersion. We've seen uh we've actually made a play on that. Um there
was some note that came out the other day and it was literally us. I retweeted it and oh, it was a SIBO note and it was talking about how there's just been this underlying rotation into um into consumer staples, etc. Uh, and
weeks." And somebody was like, "Who's we?" I was like, "Who the hell do you think?" Like, you follow me, you should know what I do and you should know we're little annoyed. I'm like, "What the hell is going on here?" Like, dude, I feel
like every single day we talk about this thing, but my point is is it seems like now. I don't know if that's just the earnings thing and things start to scatter, things start to change because of earnings, but it feels like it might
be changing a little bit. We saw on Friday how we had that um you know then all of a sudden they reversed and then just about everything was down and you know yesterday was a little bit weird. Uh that's what I've been noticing
I don't know if this is just because it's earnings, but things are starting your point, Chris, you talked about uh what's going on with the dollar and that's the guide for what's going on with gold and silver. But as much as
I have this trade, I might close my gold trade soon, which is a long MGC versus a short uh call spread uh in the GC contract because I'm winning on both right now. But I do think they're kind of weak and it it doesn't seem like it
might hold. So, and then you got the oil situation and things are just a little bit strange as of now to me it seems. >> Yeah. And the news I don't want to overnight that was aimed at helping stabilize their stock markets broadly
speaking. So, Chinese stimulus, what does that typically do? I mean, look to over to copper futures, HG. They're having another nice day up two and a having another nice day up two and a half% crossing 650. Uh the China
sensitive assets are the ones that are up today. And so you put those into a happening in the treasury space and the oil space and you kind of scratch your head and go, is this a one-off? So gold hasn't crossed any thresholds for me.
I'm going to remain short. Looking to add in more below 3955. But the pieces there that should bring it lower, not necessarily dragging it lower um right now. The reason why I'm looking at bonds though in you know instead of oil
here, I mean let's not ignore what Trump just did with this these tariffs. Um, just did with this these tariffs. Um, the section 338 of the 1938 tariff act has been used never before. He's touting
out a 96-y old law that lawmakers put on the books and decided, ah, this thing's kind of a piece of crap. No reason to use it. And he's using that to justify talking about like scratching and clawing and looking for anything to
enact his particular economic policy, uh, it does add to more inflation. So ZNZB yesterday TP and I were talking. We both were sitting in long put spreads in got out. There was no reason to be in that with uh just 4 days to expiration.
actually one of the first things I'm doing. I'm trying to find a setup here bigger product. So maybe TLT is the appropriate way for traders to think different duration, about 15 years instead of 20. Uh point being though, 31
days to expiration right now. something like the long 112 111 put spread here. Uh you know, maybe even something like a 111 110 looking for continued downward drift risking one to make one effectively at a 50% probability of
profit. I'm comfortable with that. It's obviously not a V sell play, but the way that the yields are moving, I you got to kind of not ignore them at >> Yeah. Oh, you got TP in a long put spread. I love it. He [laughter] He got
>> The world is getting better every single day. I love it. We We're We've gotten noticed how we've gotten to these people, Maurice? We've gotten to TP. We've gotten to Liz. We've gotten to them. I love it. This is great.
>> I know. No, I won't say anything. >> I mean, the nice thing about these products is the V is really low. So, if you do get a move, uh it's going to be great for a debit spread trade.
>> 9% implied volatility. Same thing with TLT. Uh, you know, really low implied volatility there. So, to your point, Chris, you can get super small in this product. 80 cents, a dollar for at the money premium. So, uh, you can do
anything you want in here, but I would keep it defined risk. I like the debit side as well. I've been doing like zebras in here in TLT just because, uh, the V is so low. So that would be to the downside, maybe throwing on like a short
downside, maybe throwing on like a short 84, long two of the 85s. And yeah, that literally one point wide kills all your extrinsic value. 220 bucks for unlimited downside profit potential on an $80 stock. Uh kind of a
potential on an $80 stock. Uh kind of a an interesting thing here. was I'm just dusting off the bond playbook here because I think it's going was >> Can I throw one more trade that your way
that's a little tangential to this? Um, if you were to throw dollarcad up on the platform and if you were to imagine a 50-day moving average, it What's remarkable about yesterday's low alongside of that is that you get this
Friday low, we close above the Friday high. That's what one would consider to reversal right at its 50-day moving average. Um, if we were to go over to 6C because it'd be CAD dollar effectively in spot terms. You see that there's
like a short call spread here. So, I'm looking at the 71.5 72 short call spread here in 60. I got filled on this. Um, it's 15 pips of credit versus for a 50
pip credit range. So, ideally, you'd want 17 pips right there to do oneird of the width of the strike, but you're getting 15. Okay, close enough. uh max profit of 150 versus a max loss of 350 55% probability of profit. So kind of
like right in that wheelhouse in terms of the tasty mechanics. It's also a that we're seeing yields go up. Uh gives you some dollar exposure in the event that things get a little bit more slippery out there. So uh different
nice little technical turn at a key level with a key candlestick pattern um mechanics for a little bit of loony weakness. So, I know we're straying away be talking stocks. I'll be talking futures. So, gold, Canadian dollar, oil,
copper. Um, that's all on the radar as far as I'm concerned. to be looking at Dollar CAD and CAD considering the the current catalyst. Well, another thing too, I'm curious um you know, with with uh as Mikey's
pulling up, ES Bitcoin, is is this the beginning of a a slow turnaround? Looks like it's trying. It really does. You know, Kai had a really great segment yesterday um for confir not for confirmance and market measures talking
about how the the relationship between stocks and Bitcoin has evolved in the postcoid era and since then we have basically a rolling correlation right plus 0.5. modestly positively correlated. That's
to say right now that if Bitcoin is going up, it's one of those things that and Mike have talked about this. Stocks are up. Okay, cool. Oh, but Bitcoin's risk on day, folks would be buying the
crap that's Bitcoin. And yet, here we are through 66K. So, if Bitcoin's turning the corner, if gold's turning the corner, I mean, what world? Do we really trust our adult longs? That's why I'm watching gold
out, there's probably other implications. Um, particularly for see if we can get it to stick. Volatility is just dead in the space right now, though. 1.3 IVR. >> Yeah. And, uh, this is a super low
reading, 44%. But if I if you are bullish on Bitcoin, this is exactly the better chart to look at unless this was a gap because this is just like we're at the top of this range. But this was just a liquidation event from 78K down to 68K
10k range. Just selling selling selling. No green bars. Not even a question of a of a green bar here. So if we do get above this range here from 66 to 67 68
maybe because there's a lack of resistance here you start to get a the upside which would be great for those Bitcoin holders out there which >> Yep. >> And uh I've got 100 shares and a super
mega what are we gonna call this? A one short put to buy two calls. We gota juicy than a Super Bowl. >> Yeah. Yeah, it is. >> I'm just grateful that that Bitcoin's just ever so slightly still below the
rid of it a few years ago. >> Just for the sake of the conversation in >> If it gets above, just put a little a piece of tape over the screen. >> And never change. >> Why did we buy this house? Isn't Bitcoin
double? Not [laughter] anymore. >> I love it. Well, Chris, appreciate your time. We will see you a little bit later and yeah, we'll keep our eye on gold and silver. See what happens the rest of the day.
E- minis up 30, NASDAQ up 380 uh down the Russell chopping around as well. But keep an eye on. We haven't seen a rally like this in quite some time. >> Mhm. >> Uh from the bottom of sub60 up to 66K in
let's call it two weeks and a bunch of big uh green bars here. So, I think that is a a decent sign at the very least. But I think this is going to be the the question. Can you get above 676, 675? Cuz this is where we sold off from. We
tried. We failed. We're trying again. But if you can get above, again, this is a big just like there's no resistance here. Uh you could just see a vacuum straight up through the channel. So, that's exactly what caught my eye.
to get you guys' thoughts because it looks like it's trying to go. It looks like it's turning around slowly and it's making a move. I'm seeing I bit up money a little bit obviously with the 100 shares as the start today. So, something
interesting is happening there overall. But you look at uh gold, you look at silver, you look at oil, um if you want to lump Bitcoin in with that, you got a couple of different commodities making a move higher today. And that to me is
interesting. Um, so I just can't wait for the for the actual open to see uh what else is is has changed or if uh everything that we know is still the today? Is it going to be the chips? Is it going to be software names? I think
think I saw something some negative news around surrounding them. A couple of today. Are chips going to be positive? Are consumer staples going to be up or down? This is what we come in every day and we think what are we going to do
today? The same thing we do every day. Pinky try and take over the world. >> Yeah, you got Nvidia, uh, SanDisk, Micron all up today. Got
Microsoft down a little bit. Uh, so the story continues. The tug of war story continues. The tug of war continues in those uh, sectors, but I feel like I want to I need something on S&P. I've been itching for a Super Bowl
here. We've we've rallied about 10 points. So, we look at a a one minute chart in the E- Minis. We've had a a nice volatile day in terms of range relative to yesterday. Uh 7:15. We
dropped from SE 7520 all the way down to 7507 and now we're back up. So, I kind of want to uh get into a Super Bowl here. I probably won't do it in the zero day. I'll probably do it in the one day. Um we're going to probably open right
now. If we look at S&P, we're gonna open around uh what do we what should we say? 70 74 7470ish. >> something like that. >> If we look at like a 74 a 7400, you
could just do like a super wide one too. Um give yourself a lot of room. 7,400 Um give yourself a lot of room. 7,400 7390 and then a like 7500 7510 or a 7505. Actually, I'm going to have to go much further than this.
7550 7560 that might work for a small credit. Uh and just play the game of, you know, if we get a continuation here, we go from up 30 to up 50 or up 60, this will be a nice
trade. But I want to I think I'm going to wait and see if we get a little a little sell-off here down closer to E- Minis only being up 20. waiting to see if we get a bump here so I can put on super bare, I feel. Um,
when we pull back. I just It just doesn't. And uh I think it's better for >> Totally fair. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. We threw on a uh NDX butterfly
>> These have been working nicely. Uh and it's the same thing that we've been Just >> keeping risk under $1,000 uh or around there and then just having a massive max profit here. So, this one specifically,
profit here. So, this one specifically, I got in for exactly $700 and uh the max profits close to 20K. That's over 10 days. If you get a move exactly to 28,000 and you hold it and you pin it, not looking for that. But I do like the
the whole portfolio. If we get a move down uh from 29,000 to 28,000 over the next week or so, if there's weak earnings, regardless of what earnings trades I do specifically, this will be a nice hedge against the portfolio. Uh and
value. Well, I like it in terms of timing, too. I mean, it's the end of the month and it's the end of a very busy week of earnings and the Fed. It mentioned this yesterday when Kevin David from NASDAQ was on the show, but
it captures a lot of different earnings. It captures a macro event in the Fed and it captures end of the month flows. Um it could it it could be interesting. >> I put it on with you. >> Yeah. Uh but yeah, other than that, we
will really just keep our eyes on on silver and gold. I think it's going to anything here in silver. I have 100 shares. My short call that I had against shares. My short call that I had against it fell off here. Uh, but I have a ton
of premium collected. So, silver, I've got shares at 87 from my short put that I was assigned on. Uh, and then I was just selling calls against it, picking up some pennies here and there, but I've got $2,300 in
premium. So, uh, the break even point is actually, uh, pretty close to where we are now, uh, honestly. So, we'll see if I can get any kind of premium here. If we go to like the 31day and just look right now, if we're at up, we're going
to open up three points, four points. So, I think maybe looking at something like this, like the 56, 57, uh we'll see what kind of premium uh changes in here. get a rally up there, I can always buy this back, roll it to September, move it
up. Uh so that that'll be the plan for the open craziness. Uh E- Minis chopping around up 30, NASDAQ up almost 400 points with uh the chips leading the way. But join us on the YouTube chat if you haven't
questions and trade ideas throughout the day. And uh you know, we got a lot going on with this week with Tesla, Google, IBM, Texas Instruments, you name it. Uh a lot of earnings are on the horizon and that will really be uh the narrative for
to take a quick 90 second break. We'll be back on the other side of it. You're be back on the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.
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show. Hopefully you enjoyed that new intro as much as we did. E- mini is up 28. NASDAQ up 380. We got Jamal in the house. We got Gus in the house. Gus is house. We got Gus in the house. Gus is fresh off a trip to Vegas. place that
three-standard deviation moves that resulted in more money in your bank moves. Unfortunately, they came to the downside. Uh, we we had some we we the cookie crumbles sometimes. You don't take any money to Vegas. You're not
prepared to lose. Uh, and boy was I prepared to lose all of it and did. So, great time. I had a great time with the boys, great time at the event. And yeah, happy to happy to be back refreshed uh before I I jet back out this weekend to
to national parks. So, all over these these past two weekends. >> Um, yeah, we got lots of lots of interesting stuff going on today. Also, yeah, new intro. Love the new intro. I I I leave for 4 days and a new intro is
don't even think I knew that that was in the works, but that's that's great >> Um, so yeah, we have all kinds of interesting stories happening this morning. Uh, kicking things off, first and foremost, Novo Nordisk has gotten
itself tied up in a lawsuit against Eli Liy. They alleged that Eli Liy uh had misleading advertising in an ad comparing Eli Liy's weight loss drugs to Novo Nordisk weight loss drugs. Now, I know this this weight loss drug
if anybody needs a refresher, Novo Nordisk has uh Zepbound and Ompic while Eli Liy has Wiggoi. Correct. Is that I I I'm I'm I'm reasonably certain that's correct. I just prepared these notes before I went on and I'm already getting
lost. There's too many of them floating around. But uh Nova Nordisk is specifically taking issue with with one specific ad where Eli Liy used a uh what what unit are these in? A 2.4 uh milligram a 2.4 milligram dose of
Nova Nordisk's treatment compared to a 7.2 mgram dose of Eli Liy's treatment and then just said Eli Liy makes you lose uh 50% more weight than Nova comparing different dosages of the drugs. allegedly. That's what Nova
Nordic says. So, that's what's going on with this lawsuit. Uh amounts are are court to determine, but Novo and and Eli Liy trading some blobes here. Uh and as somebody who has been long Novo Nordics for the last year and not Eli Liy, uh
this is a move I'm happy to see finally taking some initiative over there. I see the competition. >> Yeah, I mean that's the biggest way that that that's always probably the biggest risk for Lily, right? Is lawsuits like
company, people are coming after your cash on the regular. So, >> yeah, it'll be uh it'll be interesting to see how they open and and how that pans out. But either way, Lily's down right now, so they're taking a jab from
NVO. NVO's kind of chopping around flat, so we'll see. can get this to stick to Lily. Uh obviously these big pharma companies all have uh more more lawyers than you can count and this is you know a seemingly
sort of minute nitpicky thing like you're not this is not cool. You're not going to be able to get it to stick to them in court? I'm sure Eli Liy can the medicines are effective at different doses blah blah blah and something will
shocked to see anything come from it. But like I said, uh, Novo has has been although having a stringing together a few, you know, a nice month here. Uh, seriously off the highs. So, as a holder, I'm happy with it. Second thing
on the docket for today. Uh, Nvidia, I often joke about how a billion dollars is like $5 to Nvidia. They'll just hand a billion dollars out to to somebody that's what's what's going on here as Nvidia has disclosed a 9.3% stake in
Nebus Group. Uh this has been a trendy stock over the past year or two. NBIS is every now and then on your high options volume or or daily movers type screeners. Um but yes, Nvidia [clears throat] has disclosed an SEC
filing. They have a 9 9.3% stake in in the Dutch Neocloud company of Nebus. Uh shares of Nebus set to open up 7 to 9% this morning. Um and shares of Nebus also up 250% in the last 12 months. A pretty uh integral part of the AI boom.
essentially the Dutch equivalent of Coreeave. They do cloud computing, not as much JPUAs as Coreweave does. Uh, but it's a it's a cloud computing. They they business model to what Meta is now getting into with their extra AI
>> Love it. Yeah, we were just talking about Nebius uh a couple of days ago on the math check and yeah, this thing's up pre-market about 13 points. got decent
volatility and and these are the these are the things you want to see if you're >> for sure. >> Yeah, I traded this a few weeks back. Um expiration when um it was about 30 plus days out
since. Would definitely look to get back in at some point, probably after this one. This is this is one that's always I've always just sort of felt like I have no feel for. Uh a lot of these foreign tech giants kind of get
that way to me. Um, but yeah, I don't know. Like, like I say all the time, than they know what to do with. So, I suppose one of the things they decided Why not? >> I mean, it's smart. Why not, you know,
companies that are in the space? I mean, it and they understand the space, so >> Well, yeah. And I mean, it's it allows you to kind of skim from your there's Nvidia competitors who are using Nebius's services and then Nvidia has a
brings some of that competitor money right back into Nvidia's pocket. So, uh, right back into Nvidia's pocket. So, uh, yeah, never never hurts. Um, beyond got. We're in the thick of earning season right now, as I'm sure it's not
off a few of those that have gone off since yesterday's close. Uh, General since yesterday's close. Uh, General Motors, uh, posted $357 per share on 48 billion in revenue. Both came in above expectations. Looks like shares are set
>> Did they mention AI at all? >> Uh I don't I don't believe they did. I >> You got They should have done that at least five or six more times. You You Motors. What What year do you think it is?
>> Um beyond General Motors, Domino's Pizza. Uh who Domino's Pizza was like a really underrated grower for a long time, might I add? I'm not sure if that's still the case. I haven't checked in in a few months, but uh they are set
to open down 1%. um just missed expectations of $4.17 per share on their expectations of $4.17 per share on their $4.7 per share report. Revenue of 1.19 billion and 1.18 billion expected. So, uh perhaps arguably maybe a little bit
open down 1% uh pretty much coming in right on those numbers. Um, and oh, TSM, not an earnings report, but shares of TSM set to open 3% higher uh after uh an
Asian news source has reported the foundry will raise prices for chipmunk services by up to 10% next year. So, as demand goes, prices go with it. I'm sure haven't seen a a supply and demand graph, let me tell you, it's an
important thing. You know what's interesting about TSM is uh I did a math check yesterday just comparing the waitings and concentration of the top 10 waitings and concentration of the top 10 holdings in SMH, QQQ and SPY. And I had
no idea that TSM was number two on the list in SMH. >> Huh. Which is crazy. >> Mhm. I mean Nvidia's Nvidia is number one across the board for all three, but TSM is number two in SMH. And that was
>> I mean TSM's like I don't I don't know perspect I don't want to say the large but it's I mean it's a huge chip company like it's enormous. We don't talk about enough talking about like Micron and all these other ones but it is huge.
sixth biggest company in the world and I mean when you when you talk about the the semi space I feel like it's it's Nvidia and Nvidia's brothers are the first direction that you go. You know you go Nvidia TSM ASML then what what
guess that's a that's a deserved spot. I can't think of a company I would say more. >> They got to crank up their marketing efforts here in the US. I mean, >> no kidding. I guess Nvidia,
put it on the TV and some crazy stuff going on. >> it's in it's Nvidia, TSM, AVGO, and then SKH after that. But yeah, I mean, and we just it just it just doesn't do as the the type of moves more recently. It
does, but it's just different. I don't know. It's just it's trip. What a what a shakeup with the top 15 largest companies list has seen over the past the it's quite the turnover. You know, it's we always have a name for this this
top index. Mag 7, the fang index before it. But it's important to remember that this these things are are everchanging companies that you see as installed in that in that you know index sometimes more made up than others of the top
feel invincible. They feel like they could never lose that spot. But uh you things up and all of a sudden you got Yeah. TSM, SpaceX jumping into the top 10. SKHX obviously giant as well. Samsung at the 12 spot. Uh so yeah, it's
over. >> Oh, SpaceX is green pre-market. Say it >> I don't know if it'll last. >> It won't. >> I guess >> temporarily SEC took off the hold at at
130 [laughter] >> temporarily. Yeah. U but yeah, SpaceX catching a bid pre-market. SK Highix catching a bid pre-market just reversing to be a super volatile one. Like look at these bars. These are 10point bars every
single day. Uh it's kind of crazy considering it's a $150 price point. Bars. Bars. Skinx is spitting bars. We also have SKHX now. 2x leverage SKHEX.
>> Yeah, these things happen quick. But I tell you guys specifically because we were uh upset there was no X in the initial ticker for SKHEX. So the the 2x skhx. >> I saw that one day. I didn't want to
enrage you, but [laughter] I I saw that when it first came out. I >> you know, I I've come around sky. It's skinex. It's right there. It's the first four letters. You know [laughter] how how how much can I really critique that?
how how much can I really critique that? >> Yeah. I I was in the skx camp myself, but as time goes on, you start to just release your your qualms and accept. If going to be way more angry that Apple is an APL.
now you're going deep. [laughter] You know, just saying weep with that. Well, Gus, thank you. Appreciate your time. We will, uh, look at these stocks as they
fly around. NVO LLY. I think that'll be interesting. See how that narrative a quick 90 second break. You're watching Tasty Live.
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show. My name is Mike. I'm here with Jamal and uh the markets are chopping around just a little bit, but we got Liz Deerki on the line. And Liz, we have not Deerki on the line. And Liz, we have not yet placed an SPX Super Bowl in the
global trading hour session, but I'm wondering if you have. >> Uh I have uh I took a page out of your book. I did one yesterday on the close because we were down. >> So that's what I I mean I figured if
cuz yesterday was a whippy day in the market, right? So we wound up closing down 75. Now that being said, I have a drinking game for the people in the >> Ooh, nice. [laughter] Oh,
corrupted me. I'm officially corrupted by Mike and Jamal. I'd like to say that for the record, but anytime someone says Super Bear or Super Bowl, I think everyone should take a shot. >> This show wouldn't last very long. I
know, right? I mean, [laughter] a shot of what? Coffee. >> Anything you want, Jamal. Anything you want. What's your What's your drink of 50th birthday party this week? Um, I wasn't drinking the same thing at
home when I ended up staying with a couple of friends until 3:00 [laughter] a.m. Let's just say that it's different. >> I was just drinking high noon. Like when I'm like out being social, it's usually like high noons or sun cruisers, you
know? >> No. And I feel like Mike would be doing shots of like wheat grass. [laughter] >> So healthy. >> That's so kind of you. So kind of you. Um, no. I'm a I'm definitely a beer guy.
So, I have this issue where this is gonna sound crazy, but I just chug everything. Like, if I regardless [laughter] of it's water, coffee, like I chug it. So, I can't I actually have to stay away from the cocktails or
what? Like, I like the beer. Light beer >> cuz I just chug. I just chug. I don't just chug. >> Your mouth. Jam your mouth. CAN WE TAKE PLEASE. [laughter] >> Of course.
time I I played golf and I got I'm sure people can relate to the the giant Dunkin' Donuts like coffee. So it was a giant cold brew and by the second hole He's like what is wrong with you? I'm like [laughter] I don't know. I just
drink it. You know >> you only know one speed. That's my today? >> Actually I know the answer for you. It's >> Oh yeah. I drink procco like it like it's water. I chug that. I chug that.
>> Okay. With that being said, what are we trading today? Because honestly, it's all about gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and I am saved. >> Yeah. Uh that would be great for us, too. We got some long positions in IBIT.
silver. >> Uh I actually have 100 shares in IBIT and silver SLV. So, >> this is a great move here. like, guys, where you been? >> We have been waiting for these moves.
No, my question is are gold and silver going with I know for a while you know up and everything was awesome right um and now you're they're both getting the bump today now the Bitcoin move is because every all eyes are on you know
going to come out at some point this week Trump I guess and once again I'm using I'm putting air quotes around this Trump apparently agreed to the ethics >> an ethical comment in the clarity act and that's why I was up this morning I
know is that there should some clarity on the Clarity Act at some point this cryptos. >> Well, and that's great news. But even this morning, just look at this pattern. It looks like it's trying to break out
of a range of it can get above a move, a measured move above 67K and actually get to 70. All bets are off in a positive way. This thing could really take off. So, the positive news is only making this even better. I
the pool yet. If it does take off, you think it's going back to alltime highs? >> Whoa. >> But that'd be that'd be great. I would to alltime highs, that means the E- Minis are at 8,500. The NASDAQ's at 30
Minis are at 8,500. The NASDAQ's at 30 35 like 35K. Like it it would just be back at alltime highs and the E- Minis and NASDAQ are not just like screaming >> I I agree with you. I agree with you. And also too, I mean, I don't know, Liz,
it has it has a lot of damage to repair. I mean I mean, look at that, you know, that big waterfall. I mean, it's got some damage to repair. Um, so there's seeing alltime highs. I think it's going to be a while.
>> Again, we just need real positive news and we need sustained positive news. We need the situation where it's like, wow, Bitcoin is up. Why is it up every day? what that's when when it gets to alltime highs. We're a long way from that. And
that was a that was a pretty painful fall right from from up that high. So >> it does have a lot to recover from. It does have a lot to recover recover from. there right now? Because I found it fascinating. Oh god, MSDR is a good too
cryptocurrencies used to be very very rich and now it is not >> correct. >> Yeah. Only like 45% which is pretty low. Uh that's usually Bitcoin always had like a higher IV than your general uh
stock, but now it's the opposite. You're you're down below a lot of these tech stock implied volatilities. Um, Micro Strategy is the exception with 100% IV across the board, but as you know, that is a levered product really like that's
how it behaves. So, Micro Strategy catching a bit back up above 100 >> which has been something that they have not been able to do or sustain for a couple weeks here. So, but this is a similar chart. Just red day, red day,
red day, and just a massive fall from the highs here. And this is not even this is just the recent highs. This is not even the ma the mega highs that we saw a couple years ago. But yeah, I I like the way that this is shaping up
just because anywhere you look, whether it's IBIT, Bitcoin, Micro Strategy, you just had this like vertical double black diamond shoot down here from 44 to 36. there's just no there wasn't much resistance on the way down and maybe
back up if that's that's >> you know and and I am talking my book right here because I am long I'm long IBIT I'm long ETH A I'm long ETHB and and I'm so thankful for those products when they came out because we can trade
page and you can go into Tasty and trade, you know, you can buy Bitcoin, you can buy all of that stuff, but all of that is uh not it's not it's cash secured, right? So every dollar you put into actually buying Bitcoin is $1 in
IBIT and all these things that are out there now, you can actually use a little options on them. You can sell things against it. You can do something. So So I think my trading in these crypto products really changed when these um
>> Yeah. And they're liquid, too. And and then the even nicer thing of all of it then the even nicer thing of all of it is that they actually trade along with the pro they're good proxies. They trade along with the actual futures, you know,
past that just didn't work out well. >> Um, but these these do. >> Yeah, I have [clears throat] 100 shares in EA as well. Just realized. Uh, you can see this little flag here for the the 100 share mark. But I think for this
This has been a pretty volatile one. Anyways, >> There you go. >> Do you guys ever look at ETHB? ETHB. fascinating to me. So this is a well above my pay grade, but this was um
people were talking about how you can stake uh you can stake cryptos and ETHB I can I can I can rationalize it saying it's almost as if it's a covered call fund, right? So it's Ethereum. It's Ethereum but it's staked. So you're
kind of keep the premium from there. >> I like it. little bit too. >> Yeah. I think these the all these products are are nice where you have the the slight differentiation uh and you
things but >> uh yeah I think with between IBIT and EA really low price points now but even at their highs IBIT got up to 70 like that's still super digestible for all account sizes. Um but yeah I want to see
what happens here with IBIT and ETH. Uh if we get closer to 18, that's where my basis is in ETHA. I'll start selling a call back against the 100 shares. I bit super bowl setup with the intention to
take another 100 shares if we get stay below 35. But uh I always have the ability still to sell an extra call against uh this 100 shares as well. So my basis is down at like 35 because I've I collected so much premium last year in
here. $3,300 in premium collected. uh $3,400 in premium collected from last >> we'll see. >> I'm glad you're gonna have Tim Knight on later because I'm hoping because I'm bullish, you're bullish, Jamal, all the
three of us are bullish in both cryptos and gold and silver. So we need Tim >> And those No, he's kind of bullish. >> He does have flashes of of bullishness. >> Yeah, when it comes to like metals. >> Well, metals he does. Metals, he's got
he's a perma bear, isn't he? >> I think so. Yeah, [clears throat] I am bullish, but I'm starting to I don't know. This rally doesn't It's been kind of weak the last couple of days
territory, especially around this earnings right now as earnings are >> Are you talking cryptos or am I'm talking about ES actually? hold. I don't think this rally is going to hold. It didn't yesterday and I don't
>> Yeah, right. I feel like I feel like that too. >> Is this your super bear time? >> It is. I just I want to see if we go >> I want to see, you know, I want to see I want to see 50
there. >> That would that was easily a quick uh um how many handles was that yesterday? We had a 75 point range yesterday. >> Yeah. >> We've got a 30 point implied range uh
for today in the e- minis. We're up 36 right now. So we're we're at the upper bound if we were to just reset. Uh but looking at these in S&P 2, you got a 45
looking at these in S&P 2, you got a 45 point implied range in S&P and a 100 point range in the next 3 days. So you can clearly see that the market is waiting for this Thursday implied volatility. You got 15.7 15.8 and then
volatility. You got 15.7 15.8 and then it jumps to 16.7 which is reflective of it jumps to 16.7 which is reflective of >> the postmarket announcements in Google, Tesla, IBM. These are the things that can really move the markets. Texas
>> yep. >> That that'll be the the test, the first test of whether this market can stay afloat here. trade? Um, and I do it pretty much I do it almost every morning in one of my
accounts in the zero days. I know I know we like the Super Bowl and I do I do do those. cuz I had one in from yesterday, but I've been doing downside uh broken and take a credit in and those have been great even on up days like this because
sometimes I'm taking a credit in forum, but I have the shot of collecting a lot You have to figure out where the expected move is for the cycle. So, in expected move is for the cycle. So, in this one, what is it? You've got
>> 7480 probably. Yeah. >> So, 7480 and then you got to take away $45. So you you're going like um what 40? Yeah. It's right it's it's kind of now would be the expected where is the downside brown bar.
>> Yeah. >> Is so um you know you if I buy one sell sure that you're taking a credit. And it's been kind of fascinating cuz with that two-way action you you know what I mean? Like we I did this yesterday
right after the open a little bit yesterday and I wind up doing what I did Jamal with the with the natural gas position. I've I immediately put an order in to create that where the butterfly where I I you know sell out of
butterfly where I'm locking in a credit and that's been great because sometimes you can catch a falling knife. Yesterday I didn't I was this close to getting it had on. >> Yeah. So, you know what I mean? Like a
the wing and then you're taking out a credit and then if you get the up move because it's all this is all gone in one day, you can sometimes butterfly it off you can get some really decent profit in there if you do it.
>> Sounds like a nice trade. Yeah, I mean look, these markets are moving around and and and uh even especially you can put something like this on the morning and uh you know kind of see how the market ends up playing out.
a credit for that? There's a dollar, right? how your your wing is broken by a little bit. There you go. And then like I said, Mike, and I know I did this with because you can do them in the morning. You can do those pre-market, too. And
then immediately if I get filled on this, if you've collected a dollar, I try to move my my my shortest the long the long that's like the the least up to still locking in a credit. Like I'll put it in for 75 cents. So, I'll have taken
in 25 cents and I've got the shot today if the market reverses of making some >> Yep. I've been doing. Yes, it's been those have been those have been pretty consistent. Now, I'm not going to lie to you. I think there's been one where I
them I'm just taking in the credit. So, am I throwing money away by moving by I've got the shot and take the risk off the table. >> Yeah, I think there's a lot to be said about removing the risk and removing the
buying power requirement, too, where you can use that for something else. Um, and then you you have a you have a stressfree remainder of the day. >> Uh, but yeah, that's the name of the game with these broken butterflies. You
game with these broken butterflies. You pick up a credit with a uh asymmetric debit spread that you're buying. So, this is 10point wide debit spread, 20 point wide credit spread. If the market rips up 101 15 points, you can probably
rips up 101 15 points, you can probably move this 7470 up to the 7480 and create a 10point wide put spread against a 10point wide credit spread uh debit spread versus credit spread here. So you have no risk as long as you have routed
key like like Liz is saying, you've got to make sure that that adjustment from to make sure that that adjustment from 7470 up to 74.80 80 is for a debit that is less than your initial credit received and you lock in a free a free
shot with a a small credit overall. >> 30 seconds here, guys. >> 30 seconds. We're starting to push up a little bit into the open here. Similar >> Yes, yesterday we did push up into the open as well. You know, did you guys
the volatility futures yesterday? It was so bizarre to me because at some point um V was down and the market was down. >> Yeah, maybe >> it was I mean it was very it was very
slight but I was like that's always a telltale sign something is something is >> Yeah. I think yesterday was another weird day too where like in the morning and the e- minis had like a twopoint range, five point range. It was maybe it
it's like down a little bit but maybe it was a volatility crush due to the intraday range being smaller. >> Uh look at this thing ripping down >> I got to do it. >> You're doing it Jamal.
for the super bear. >> Yeah. And I hope I'm wrong. I want to >> There we are. >> Actually, you know what? I think I'm going to join you on that. I kind of like that idea. I don't like when you
like that idea. I don't like when you two are on the same side. [laughter] >> Uh, just for today, maybe. Maybe just for today. 75. >> I'm trying to buy the 7 >> 75 15 75 25 and then you buy the 74
7450. >> I'm out of my one from yesterday, Mikey. >> Love it. >> Love to see it. Uh, yeah. This is flying >> I know. >> Can't keep up.
>> Come on. Bounce back. [laughter] >> Faster. >> Faster. >> Um, yeah. I think 7500 7510. spread. And then >> there's not a lot of credit right now.
are kind of weird. >> Yeah, I need it to pop up a little more. These markets are saying here, >> but I do want to sell the 7500 7510 and then maybe buy the 7475 or 7560 put $15 wide. But I'm just
not going to force it. I'm going to wait. I need another >> You got filled. >> 20 second credit. I did the 75107520 right at the expected move to the upside and then I bought the 7445 7435 put
>> um Mike to make you feel better about your trade um the 7520 7510 has already been trading quite a bit in the opt in the sibo active most active love it
>> so right there positive day for the chips I see SanDisk well you know the storage as well chips and storage I see SMH Sandis Micron they're all positive circle that's making a move bro >> cryptos are back
>> [laughter] >> That is amazing. They're going to save >> Um, all right. So, we got we got into that super bare a little hedge against the portfolio. Texas Instruments up 12 bucks right now. How about that?
>> Yeah. Did you do any earnings and what earnings are you the most excited about >> Didn't do any last night. I mean, GM, sorry. GM doesn't Hallebertton and GM it's fun to say GM and 3M in the same sentence. But tonight, um,
>> there's really not much tonight. >> Yeah. Tomorrow, tomorrow is a big day, >> Yeah. Tomorrow we have >> Texas Instruments, IBM, Tesla, and >> Philip Morris, too. Don't forget about that. [clears throat]
>> Can't forget about Philip Morris. >> No, I think tomorrow is the big ones. excited and then it's like, oh, nothing until Wednesday and then bring >> for sure. But yeah, let's see. Let's see if we can do anything in silver sliding
a little bit. Uh actually no, it's up up two bucks here. 100 shares. My basis is two bucks here. 100 shares. My basis is at 87, but my my actual basis with the at 87, but my my actual basis with the premium received is at 65.
>> you know, do you know what I do to protect my long stock? And this is do downside ratio spreads to protect my long stock where I'm taking a credit a can because then I can dollar cost average, right? I know it's actually
more not capital efficient, but I will do downside downside wide ratio spreads hoping that it if it goes down and I get and I get back in it, I'm if you can stock >> for sure. Yeah. So like uh in this case
it would be uh 5148 for a small credit. Uh or you can Yeah. possible, giving up that credit but still routing it for a credit. >> Yeah. 5148. That gives you another $300 of downside protection. And to Liz's
dollar cost average down because your break even on this trade is down at 45. And if you take 100 shares at 45 and you already have 100 shares at 87,
you just cut your bases in half. Now you have a an average basis of 60 something calls against that uh twice, >> right? Or if it ends ends at or if it and you end at 48, then you've just taken $300 in cost basis off your long
>> 100%. >> Yeah. So I I mean I know it's for premium on the call side, but when my base is so far away and I don't want the downside ratio spread. >> I like it. Yeah. Especially Yeah. If you
intend to take another 100 shares, 100%. Love it. Now, I will tell you there's sudden I keep doing it and I come in way too long. Way [laughter] too long. doing it, then you have to be comfortable with where what your what
your total is. >> Yeah, for sure. Um, what a day. What a looking at >> Come on, get me filled. [laughter] >> spx. >> I forgot about I know my time is coming.
>> I forgot. I know my time is coming to an end here, so I need predictions from both of you. And we're going to talk only SPX cuz you know I love SPX. Where day? And we're going to start with Jeral.
>> What do you mean? Like I got to give you an actual like specific number. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You give me a number. >> Uh
>> Ooh, you think it's down from here? Okay. 7462. We've got one bear. Mikey, win on my super bear and market ends up lower too. [laughter] >> Uh I was going to say 7450. >> 7450.
>> Just erase erase this whole move. Bring us down to 7450. but we'll see. I mean we're only 10 points away from 7500 in SPX. And I >> That's what I'm saying. Hey, you're taking my thunder. I'm going 7500 even.
And I'm [laughter] going to say it's going to be like 7500 and like one penny. We're going to hit We're going to hit it. Today's the day. Yeah. Well, little bit later today. >> Happy trading, guys.
>> Thank you. Likewise. >> Uh, yeah. E- minis are trying so hard to rally further than the 30 handle, up 3750. NASDAQ is above the 400 handle, up 430. We got TP on the line, though, and I want to hear what he has to say, what
he's looking at with uh some of these zero day trades he's been doing so often. TP, how you doing this morning? >> I'm good, thank you. By the way, um I'm going to start working on a self-help book for broken butterflies.
>> Ah, >> where you know have people like you >> where you know have people like you yourself, Mike, Liz, Jamal, abusing them, breaking them, >> and rather than just lead lives of
little, you know, misery, I'm going to write them a self-help book to pull themselves together and hopefully lead happy, productive lives. All right. title? The broken broken. >> I don't know yet, Jamal. That's what I
you're an idea guy. >> Thank you. And so, and you're also very you're also very you have your finger on the pulse, Jamal. I you know, I want something that's going to work in 2027. You know what I mean? Cuz I it's going
time I get it to the publisher, etc., etc. Anyway, we can work on that later. broken butterfly. That's it. >> A broken broken bro. it's broken. >> And then we're broken by the way that
>> Yeah. >> The emo butterfly. >> So, here's here's what I'm seeing right now. When I look at a map of the green and red in the S&P 500, there's a lot of red. Basically, the market right now is
being held up by Google, AVgo, Microsoft, and Amazon. Microsoft, and Amazon. In Nvidia is flat. In Nvidia is flat. Um the bank stocks are down. The bank
Um the bank stocks are down. The bank stocks are down. Um a lot of the industrial stocks are are down. I'd say a majority are down. So I think there's a lot of weight on the market right now. You guys are talking to Liz about where
you think the S&P is going to be. I kind of agree with with Mike that it we could of agree with with Mike that it we could erase this $38 rally. Um, the other point is too if you open up the zero DTE options and Mike, do you have the open
interest up on there? >> Uh, yeah, I do. >> So, you look at the open interest. There's a lot of open interest at the G
There's a lot of open interest at the G 7500 calls. So it I'm I'm not saying 7500 calls. So it I'm I'm not saying that the S&P pins necessarily, but there can be some there can be some pulling towards a strike with a lot of open
interest. So Liz's point, 7,500 calls. They have 10,000 of uh contracts of open interest there. That's pretty high relative to the other ones. There's some sevens and eights and sevens. So, we could see a rally, but down on the
could see a rally, but down on the bottom down by the like the 7450s and there's there's a lot of open interest on the put side. Personally, I think they might pull them down towards those levels like the 7450s, 7430s, something
>> Well, that'd be great because I have a uh super bear here where we sold a call one, too. >> Uh so, yeah, that'd be great. It would from elsewhere. >> Yeah, it really would. I love it. TP, I
this area. I mean, that I feel like that's we're heading that's a hot button morning. Apparently, you guys have been talking about bonds a whole lot and in Canada. Is there is there anything that you're seeing in bonds? Cuz I'm
>> [clears throat] >> to that to that point specifically, Jamal, I'm going to short some call spreads in 6C u the Canadian dollar just because yeah I know it's down and you know not a
I know it's down and you know not a contrarian but whatever um the skew is pretty flat in the 6C options and again not to get away from bonds Jamal but this whole tariff thing I think could just weigh on um the Canadian dollar for
next month or so. So, I'm looking at like 17-day uh short call spreads in 6C. As for bonds, um looking at the I mean, they're
um looking at the I mean, they're obviously down now. ZN's volatility is about 5%, ZB volatility is about 9%. So, the I still argue that ZN's volatility is elevated relative to ZB. So, the the the big news
yesterday, I don't know if it was a big news, Jamal, but what came up was that the 30-year uh mortgage had gone back to its highest level in in a year or something like that. [snorts] So, there's a lot of upward pressure on
rates towards that far end, the 10ens and the 30s. Um, and yeah, the if I don't mind I would buy I would go in and do let's say a 10day um I'd buy in bond
ZB sell the 110s buy the 111 puts. So I'd buy a put spread and again this is me just being cute with the volatilities. You could sell a call spread in there, but I think relatively speaking, bond
volatility is inexpensive. So, I'm just leaning on um leaning on um uh debit spreads here, but something like that where it's it's basically a 50/50 bet.
You do have some positive theta on that trade because you're the debit you're paying is less than the intrinsic value of the 111 put. So, you're picking up some positive theta. But yeah, Jamal, I'm I'm I'm leaning bearish on ZB. I'm
they're not going to I don't think they're going to decouple. Um but I would sell a call if I would choose one or the other. I wouldn't necessarily do both. Buy a put spread in ZB, sell a call spread in ZN just to get cute.
Yeah, I mean to your point, the bond volatility is a lot of people know and some may not be aware, but it's it's it's single digits and I mean there's it's just not really that fun to sell a nine ball, right? Uh it's easier to just
play directionally. >> No. No. Hey, Mike, is that the it does that platform if you go to the charts, Mike,
and you go to um indicators that that button you're on right there? right there >> and go down to implied volatility. I think it's in there. There it is. So, I don't want to start a whole
argument here, but this is the only indicator that I look at on a chart. This is the this is the the VIX style calculation, the overall volatility for
ZN. To Jeral's point, it's been just dead. Okay. and do the same thing with ZB. It's just dead. There's no volatility in these things. >> What? I'm sorry, Jamal. >> These numbers are in ticks in this case
since it's bonds. These >> Yeah, just in in the the implied volatility is just the daily volatility. In other words, there's today's overall, stored. And we finally added this on here. This is a really I like this
chart. It just shows me it I I use this along with IV rank. I use this along with the overall actual volatility in in an options expiration. Um and then you
know determine the specific options to trade after that. But I like this chart and it and it shows graphically what you're talking about anecdotally Jamal. Right? You've just seen volatility drop. Well here's a chart. If you haven't been
staring at all bond volatility like Jamal for the past 6 months or like I have, it's this is this chart can can just get you up to speed. >> Yeah, we probably see we were talking about crypto as well. Um
>> this is another one where uh implied volatility has been on its butt. Uh we had it much higher of course into the big sell-off. You can see this this inverse reaction here all all the way up to 80% and now we're sitting at 40 and
that's at the lower end of the range we've seen for the last year. >> I like this. This is nice. >> I guess I guess I'm bullish on crypto at this point, specifically Bitcoin. >> Um I I haven't had I've had only like,
you know, like $1,000 worth of this. I don't trade size of Bitcoin. I'll buy $1,000 worth, sell it, you know, in and out. Um and it's not like I'm scalping it. and I'll hold on to it for a week, two week, 3 weeks until I see a little
bit of a profit. But, um, you know, I had held on to my original Bitcoin position for years and got out last year when it started to sell off. Um, but when it started to sell off. Um, but right now, yeah, I mean, it's I, you
know, Bitcoin didn't do well uh this past spring with all the the Iranian war anymore. >> Well, it's interesting. There really hasn't been any strongly negative news that I can think of. And I say that with
regard to, you know, years past you had FTX or you had some, you know, wallet Like those were the big negative newses that were really create these big draw while. And it's just, it just hasn't been interesting. Chips have been chips
every single trading room. And that's really what it's been more recently been. And people always went to Bitcoin for more alpha. And why would you go to can go to chips for the alpha? So that's really what it's been. But uh as Liz
brought up yesterday morning to start the week, this crypto some clarity on the crypto act has seems seemingly put some bullishness in and in Bitcoin right names whether it's IBIT, whether it's Circle or whether the actual coins
themselves are starting to move. Well, if it's if it's able to shrug off the bias towards higher rates throughout this year because Bitcoin obviously isn't a yieldbearing interestbearing security. So, if you're just looking to
stash money, um, Bitcoin's Bitcoin is not going to give you an interest rate like T bills would or something like that. Um, so if Bitcoin is able to shrug off the bias towards higher rates, yeah, you
know, maybe we will have a little bit of momentum to the upside. Maybe. >> Mhm. Love it. Well, TP, thank you for bringing this to our attention. Um, because this uh this really helps you see the range of IV rank as well. I
think that's the most powerful thing for premium selling. Like if if you see an IV rank of 100 that goes to zero, it means nothing to me if the actual implied volatility goes from 13 to 11. But in IV here, you can see an IV rank
of probably at an Ivy rank of 100 back here. We're talking 80% implied 40% implied volatility. That's a gigantic volatility crush. So like into perpetuity because this is what you want to see if you're trading Ivy Rank.
>> Yeah. And and to that point, just really quickly, Mike, and I'll end with this, is as you start to look at different products outside of individual equities, um, a lot of them just have just very low volatility,
>> you know, like currencies and bond. They're not like you think the VIX at 16 They're not like you think the VIX at 16 is cheap, try try note volatility at 5%. Right? >> And so if you don't have context for it,
5% can look really cheap. On the other hand, Mike, it can actually look a little bit rich maybe if you have some other context around it. So that's that's why I think it's a valuable tool and it's not the be all and end all.
>> Love it. >> Yep. later. >> See you, man. >> Adios. Yeah. Uh great tool there. And yeah, I think this is this is a great
addition to the platform because it does help solve that uh the issue of IV rank is the actual crush potential. That's what you need for the implied the other side of it. You're watching Tasty Live.
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>> explain pot odds. >> Pot odds is my favorite term. Uh but pot odds in the poker world or gambling world refers to having a greater payout
than your implied odds would would suggest. So let's say I have 3:1 odds to win a pot, but the pot is giving me 4 to one odds to make that bet. I would have a positive expected value over time. So in trading, let's say you have a defined
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trade like a trader, [music] tasty trade? the show. It appears the super bear is working out. Uh, E- Minis down to 25 uh
on the upside. NASDAQ up 360. We've got about a 15 point sell off from the high of course >> he Coleman. How you doing? today? Uh >> fantastic. Good. Stupendous.
I heard that one. Add that to the vernacular. Uh no, I know you were just been a little busy this morning. I'm not going to lie. I haven't had too much time to really lock in on what the market's been up to. Um but I mean I see
little bit more. I know yesterday for the trade of the day, I wanted to try and take advantage of some of the uh some of the memory companies. It's falling knife >> because it does look like there's been a
it is nice to see a little bit of momentum to the upside on some of those there, too. Oil's logging another good day. I know Bitcoin is logging another good day. IBIT, Bitcoin, a lot of those products have been really down in the
see those catch a little bit of live there. Um, but I would say top of the volatility for the day. Some of those memory names. Again, I know we were talking about a potential rotation as well, uh, in this overall market. Uh, I
putting in alltime highs? Maybe. I don't know. But I I do want to try and take advantage of of, you know, some of the momentum that is still in some of these names. >> I'm with you. I I jumped into Micron and
SanDisk >> Call Butterflies. Um and um they're the 1,100 1200 call butterfly and in SanDisk I have the 1600700 1800 call butterfly. So I'm I'm with you
on that. And then >> you mentioned these um these these mean Bitcoin um >> oil >> oil for sure >> but I Bitcoin
absolutely ripping. It's almost like they're coming after things that people haven't wanted for a while. We'll see if it holds though. Um, >> It's still early in the day. We're up 20 and change. Um, what we have seen in the
held. >> This is one of the reasons why we put on what happens. I love where we are right >> I'm making money. So, it makes me feel like we're not going to hold. [laughter]
feel right. >> Like all these chips are up, man. These running right now. You know, Marvel's back above 200. That stock's been really weak. Micron flying right now. Sandisk flying. SMH up 18 bones.
>> Um and then we talked about some of the crypto named Circle. We put on a position in there. Um I can't remember what the catalyst was and why we were rocked down, but okay, >> we um I think we have a similar trade. I
have it's in August and I'm short the 65 put versus being long the 8110 call out really well today. >> Yeah, I actually just closed mine uh cuz the intraday gain is like $500 and it it netted out to be $180 winner. So, yeah,
I had the 65 short put to buy the 80100 call spread >> and that was routed for a $3 credit. So, that was just like a a no-brainer for me 20 point wide long call spread. You're still picking up $3 in credit.
>> Uh plenty of upside profit potential. You get one one 10% pop and you get a nice winner. So, uh, yeah, I took that one off. We'll post it to the follow one off. We'll post it to the follow page shortly, but I just put in a GTC
for S&P to close for a $200 winner. If we keep selling off in the E- Minis, if we if we get another 10 points, that'll probably fill. Um, E- Minis. Can we talk right now. >> How silly. [laughter]
by the way. >> Index, but can we talk about some >> cues. and I know you you know exactly where index is, but like
>> which one do you uh trade? You know, matter of fact, right now, don't even >> We got a lot of screens around here. There's one right behind. test you. >> No, but what what what were you getting
one of those products of all of them do you do you gravitate towards the most? Regular like Q's, NQ's. I mean, so you know what's funny is whenever I got a little bit more involved with the micro NASDAQ market, I
started finding myself trading the Q's a little bit more often rather than spy. Not that I even have necessarily a bias. They're both extremely liquid. highly correlated towards each other usually and you know, except for what we
between both the assets, but that's pretty rare. But I find myself looking that I keep an eye on NASDAQ. in before when I was looking at the uh S&P 500 uh ES, you know, I tended to look at the SPY options a little bit more. So, I I
the futures products, but I do find the Q's and the SPY to have a little bit more volatility when it comes to the option side, but I would still say, you >> Yeah. >> Yeah, we're in we're in the micro
NASDAQ. Uh and yeah, I think there's still plenty of liquidity uh in these futures products. there's less options expirations. Uh but at the end of the day, if you're trying to get the most bang for your buck, I mean, the MNQ
product does give you that because you you have the ability to control a uh what $55,000 product for three grand. >> Yeah, that's nuts. >> If you're using QQQ or Spy, you have less leverage by way of buying power
requirement, which is safer because you can't you can't use as much leverage. But uh I know like for this product and the MEES as well. I just have one contract in here. Uh I have two contracts in MEES. But I
>> Right. You have a lot of experience trading the the ETFs. Uh but it's really on the futures yourself that you know what you've been doing in there. So uh I might have to even take advantage of the options on the futures a little bit more
>> Yeah, I think it's it's definitely a core position that I'll have into perpetuity. I mean, you just have so much uh you have so much wiggle room. >> If you have if you can do a strangle in an equity, you can do a strangle in in
me or MNQ much more easily because the realized moves in are just not as much. >> Period. So, you have the ability to have that uh flexible strike management. You've got uh near 24-hour trading. You can move it overnight if you need to.
All that stuff is is great for a core position. But yeah, both these are working out really nicely. 2K profit overall from the this year so far in MEES, 800 bucks in MNQ. And we've just been following the market. The market
goes up, we shift the whole thing up. If it goes down, we roll down and out, go always lean long, always have bullish delta in here. Uh, and we just size correctly to where nothing can really hurt us all too much.
>> love it. >> Uh, but yeah, E- Minis are trying to slide a little bit here. Only up 27 minis, man. >> I know. I got to stop. [laughter] Forget about the NASDAQ. NASDAQ only
forever. Um, we got about a minute left here. Uh, anything else catching your a little bit more light into the crypto products. I was getting a little bit little bit there as we, you know, slid down to the lows at around, you know, 55
60,000 on on Bitcoin and then just the overall sentiment started to feel really Mike, you mentioned the other day, it's one of the it's one of the more on a little bit more long delta in some of those products. But with that being
life cuz things were getting quiet. >> Yeah, we were talking about the just the like it's a really interesting point because we've got this previous resistance >> and then you look at the previous bars
after red day after red day. So, if they can break above here, uh, you do have the ability for to kind of just have no resistance in this range and you can just rocket ship right back to the 70,000 level. And if that happens, I
think E- mini's NASDAQ just continue to to push higher as well. >> Thank you guys. >> As always, we'll see you a little bit later today. Uh, for the folks out there, if you want to follow us on
Twitter, I'm at trader Mikey B. Jamal is at Jamal Chandler. We're going to kick it over to Dr. Jim after this, but we'll be back a little bit later today uh with Tim Knight and some trade ideas for you. So, don't go away. Uh stay tuned on the
Tasty Live YouTube channel as well as tasty.com, but we'll be back on the other side of this break. You're watching Tasty Live.
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Trade, a little morning edition of Dr. Jim. Hope you guys are doing okay out there here in these markets. What I want to do is I want to break down a trade. want to see where you guys are at in the chat. And so, let me know what you guys
you guys see in this market here on this Tuesday morning. So Ben, go and bring us into the market. EM S&P is up 33, NASDAQ up 355, also known as the risk-free
instrument for you from theory to practice fan that might be watching inside the trade. Got the boomers up about 200. Got the Russell 3,000, a little bit under 3,000, only up 14. All right, guys. So again, let's get a lay
of the land. What are we up against? It is earnings season right now. We've got report, I think, starting tomorrow. If I don't, if I remember uh here correctly, if you go to if you go to the tasty default watch list, if I sort by
default watch list, if I sort by earnings, you're going to see that again coming on down the shoots tomorrow, you've got Google, you've got IBM, you've got Tesla, you've got all these guys set to report. Then next week,
you've got Chipotle, they're still in business. I'm as shocked as you are. Starbucks, Meta, Microsoft, they're all coming on down the shoot. Oh, can be difficult to find trades to do that aren't associated with earnings that are
weeks, what have you. I've talked about this ad nauseium uh basically every 10 plus years. So, I'm not going to belabor that point any more than we've seconds of this show. So, what we're going to do, let's find something that
something that we can do that's not necessarily going to be associated with, you know, an individual stock, a binary event that is earnings coming on down the shoot. So, I was surveying the landscape. I was in my tasty default
watch list and I was just kind of poking around and sorting by different things and, you know, looking at IVX, looking at beta, looking at some correlations. But then, of course, I came back to, you know, you've got to dance with Brungy at
a certain point. like you've got to get back to the tried andrue and the Betty Crocker recipe. So if you go to IVR and you sort this guy now typically we're Because we're looking to sell premium. We're looking for short premium
opportunities. But every once in a while, right, you got to shock the muscle every once in a while. You got to roll in on a Tuesday and hit shoulders. that. We know that the Earth will reverse the spin on its axis if you do
that too often. But every once in a while, you just got to kind of give it a go. So, we're going to sort this guy from low to high. So, we're going to look for a lower volatility opportunity to go ahead and uh strategically
diversify here in the portfolio because again, there's so many things happening that there's going to be lots of premium to sell. There's going to be lots of short option opportunities. Let's do something from the long premium side.
taking advantage of lower volatility. Now, because volatility has been kind of on the higher end as of late, as you can see right here, I'm in the tasty default watch list. There aren't too many opportunities that are low volatility.
You've got bond futures, you've got UB40 futures, uh, which is very much in the past. You've got TLT, you've got notes, you've got a couple of things that are on the lower end, but then pretty quickly you get into the 20s. like
where it's like okay this volatility is not super duper low so what am I going to do well you kind of have to work with what you got like at a certain point and air like at a certain point you have to you know work with within the confines
of what the market is giving you at this moment in time so I was actually looking moment in time so I was actually looking at a DIA strategy shout out to all my boomers out there like y'all been awake for seven hours already man so we
appreciate y'all We appreciate the work that you guys have done. You guys built we are going to throw a shout out to you guys by doing a little DIA strategy right here and right now. Now, again, the IVR is 27.9. So, it's not as low as
something a little bit lower because of the strategy that we are going to do the diagonal spread. But again, it's not 50. It's not 70. It's not even 35 or 40. It And so we're gonna go ahead and give this guy a go from the standpoint of
setting up a diagonal set. So we go into DIA. We go into the trade page. Uh and I are already putting in some work, man. Booya is in the house, man. Look at Ron Vashard in the house. Christopher Springer Pus is here, man. Christopher
Springer's back, man. Point B is in the house, man. I appreciate you guys so very much. Get in that chat. Get in there. pump that algo because it is not ready to be pumped this early in the morning. But go ahead and if we go to uh
If I'm setting up a diagonal spread, again, remember the basic setup of a to be long in the back month, I'm going to be short in the front month. So, I'm month, I'm going to sell an option in the front month. And the basic idea
behind a diagonal spread, if you are brand new, welcome aboard. I'm so glad you are here. If you're trying to take an active approach to your portfolio, specifically using options and futures in the derivative space, then man, you
are in the right spot. A diagonal spread is long in the back month, short in the front month, very much the mullet of options trading strategies. And you want to take advantage of both a a directional move, and also b the time
differential between the expiration cycles. So, it has very much of a calendar spread feel to it. It is a together as one. So if I go into
September and I open this up, I've got 59 days to go. Now again, I don't really feel great about this. I don't really want to do this. I feel like we're doing something we shouldn't do, but the way the pricing
sets up, I was looking at this before the show, man, playing the boomers to the downside, it looks like it sets up pretty well from a pricing standpoint. Now, I understand, right? Like you think that fading AMD with your short calls is
a bad move. It very well might be. But fading the boomers, man, you have lost every single day for the last 137 years. But we're going to give it a shot here today, and we'll see if we can go ahead and uh and cheat the system. So, I'm
going to set up a put diagonal spread. I'm going to buy a put in this back going to sell a put in the front month in the August cycle. So, if I go to September, you've got the boomers trading at 520. If I go ahead and buy,
spread, you're buying one or two strikes in the money, then you're going to sell It's not super complicated when it comes to strike selection. You can play around with the sizing to kind of fit, you know, your profit objectives and how big
standpoint. Like you can do all that of course, but generally speaking, one to two strikes in the money on the long option and one to one to two strikes out of the money on the short option is a really solid way to kind of set this guy
up. So if I go ahead and if I buy the 525 put, if I buy, let me see. If I buy the 525 put, I'm going to buy I'm going to pay $12.50 for that guy in the September cycle.
Then I'm going to go ahead and I'm going to uh minimize the September cycle. Let's go into August and let's find a put to sell. Now again, usually you're going to be selling, you know, a couple of strikes in the money, but I kind of
of strikes in the money, but I kind of think since we bought the 525 put just think since we bought the 525 put just to make this as fune as we possibly can, what if we sell the 515 put against it?
That gives us a $10 wide spread, right? It's nice. It's a round number. The technical bros that like defending their round numbers, they're going to be very pleased with our selection. 525 long put in September, 515 short put in August,
it looks like we're going to pay $7 for this diagonal spread. Now, a couple of things to be mindful of. Number one, when it comes to the total cost on a diagonal spread, we like to keep this guy at about 75% of the width of the
strikes or less because you want to be able to, you know, have enough room to correct directionally on the strategy. So, if you get the move that you want, then you want to get paid on that move. If you find yourself in a situation
where you've got a $10 wide diagonal, you buy it for $9, like yes, that can work, but you're kind of making it a bit more difficult uh to be profitable in the trade in my opinion. And so for us here, you can see I'm only paying about
$7 for this guy. So, it is well underneath that 75% marker. That's the first thing to keep in mind. The second thing to keep in mind is I'm selling this August cycle against September. I'm still going to have additional
opportunities to sell premium against September, like in the weeklies between August and September if I need to. So, if I don't get the move that I want, if the Boomer index does not go down, which again, it hasn't gone down for more than
seven hours at any point in time over the last 39 years. So, the odds are clearly stacked against us. But if it does go down, everything's going to going to have a chance to sell more premium against this later on down the
road if it does indeed come to that. So that is a huge advantage of something like a diagonal spread when it comes to, you know, just reducing basis and having of things kind of working in your favor here. And so I'm kind of thinking I
think this is it, guys. Like I don't really think that uh I don't really think that uh Oh, yes, Ben, I got you. I don't really think that uh there's no I to say about this. I don't really think that there's anything more that we need
to uh pontificate about this uh this strategy. I think it is set and I think it is ready to go. So, let's go ahead. Let's let's buy this guy for $695. There you go. It got filled $6.99 on the old DIA index. And uh and there you go. So,
what you guys are trading now. Obviously, people are asking if inside the trade is here to stay. It is here to stay. Uh markets moving, things changing. So, here you go. inside the trade. Nine o'clock central, 10 o'clock
Eastern. I'm going to give you not only fadable opportunities in the afternoon, but fadable opportunities in the morning. Don't you guys ever forget, no matter what happens, I am here for you guys. I am trying to find ways for you
guys to make more money. I don't know that I can find a better way than just single trade that I do, but I'm going to keep searching. I'm going to keep keep though, man? Let me see you guys in the chat. I see you guys in the house. What
are you guys trading? Ron Bashard, the algo is confused. Is it leg day or shoulders day and calf day? Well, it's Tuesday, right? So, we know the algo knows that it has to be back day. But you come in with a bicep tricep pump, it
again, just to make sure that the algo understands that the humans still have a leg up, at least for now, I think every once in a while, you got to do it. But, uh, but let's see. Christopher Springer, uh, I appreciate you. Let's see. Let's
see. Let's see. Uh uh Platus, we call it TT. He is the you're talking about me. I think you're talking about Mike B. You should be talking about Mike B. Uh that is 100% 100% true. But let me see here. Oh, I
100% true. But let me see here. Oh, I see Bob. Uh Bob as M5T. I wish I could the show, I get stressed because I sometimes get lost like spreads, IVR, etc. Bob, man, you're in the right spot. Bob, thank you for being here. So, let
me slow it down real quick for Bob because we've all been there. Like, Bob, single one of us has been there. And I mean, there's 500 people watching right now. I guarantee you are not alone, Bob. So, here's what I would do. I would,
because you're in the YouTube chat. I would poke around on the YouTube channel, and I would actually make your way over to the Crash Course playlist. Now, I'm a bit biased. I know the guy who made all those videos. But if you
start with there's one in there that's like 2 hours long. And again, you're watching it at 1.5x, so it's only going to be an hour and 20 minutes for you. But I would start with that one because what I do is I go all the way from start
all the way to, okay, how do I actually and understand how to manage those trades? I take you all the way through that journey. So that's where I would begin, Bob, because that way you can
pause, you can stop, you can go as quickly or as you know, slowly as you want to go because I understand like in the a live in a in a live show format, we are kind of moving kind of quickly. I naturally talk very very quickly and so
if you are watching it on a 1.5x or 2x uh from your boys content, man, that is a power move. That is a power move indeed. But I understand the live show actually go to the crash courses and then of course you can always reach out
to me if I can help in any way. Like my email is just jshttastylive.com. So write that guy down and reach out anytime, man. I am very very happy to uh to help. So Brian Racketin uh Weiss is in the house, man. I appreciate you. Bob
Love that blob is here. Brian Racketin, forget to pump forgot forgot to pump the algo. Well, now you remembered. Very Gen X of me. That's correct. Good morning, Dr. Jim. What's going on? Uh let's see. David C is here. David C. Uh Dr. Jim in
the AM. That's correct. Again, we talked about this yesterday, but I I guess I'm this is an uptick, right? You got Dr. Jim in the afternoon from theory to the morning, now inside the trade. You got Dr. Jim for calculated risk, which
keep us on our toes, man. But a lot of times that drops in the evening hours. Dr. Jim in the infomercial slot. Like, that's all we need. Dr. Jim at that 12:30 slot. It's coming, man. Like, we can't stop it now. And so, uh, let's
house there, Bob. Let me see. The man from many places loses 100% of the time spread. Well, maybe in the boomers, but not diagonal spreads. Uh overall, and there's or denu in the house, man. I appreciate you so very much. Uh there is
Let's go, Doc. You always give me the confidence to trade. I'm doing options on futures thanks to you. Thank uh today I opened an MEES August 31st 7225
naked put. Yes, I love it. I have about 30 seconds to go, but let me take a look at this. All right, so you're in August. You said August 31. August 31 7225. So I You're down here. I'm not sure if you did this today or if you did it before,
but it's a solid trade, right? I mean, your delta's 25. Might go a little bit more premium, but usually anywhere to live when it comes to short puts. And so that's it, man. Another inside the
diagonal spread for you guys. I hope that really helped. Gave you a couple of tomorrow for inside the trade. I'll even be back later today for from theory to I'll see you guys there and I'll see you guys there.
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Tim Knight in the house. And Tim, you have planted the flag. 9:20 a.m. This is >> I love it. >> Yeah. Planted the freak flag. Okay.
[laughter] I know. Um Yes. Well, um I thank you. I appreciate that. Appreciate the slot. I I I also like I would It's a nice balance because the first 4550 minutes the day I can kind of do my housekeeping
on my positions and then you have my almost entirely undivided attention. So, >> Fantastic. Tim, yesterday we had a little bounce in the market to start the day. Be interesting to see if this rally holds or not. How are you feeling about
charts? >> Uh, well, I think that we're at a we're inflection point here and I'm going to highlight that with a couple of specific charts because yesterday was funny. Um, I lost a little ground yesterday, but I
felt really really good about the day because um, you know, I felt good about my positions and and um, you know, got more aggressively short and so forth. that we all have different trading styles. I know that um, I'm I'm probably
of old school. Just just sell them short sake. And this was one of those irksome mornings where I got popped out of a bunch of positions pretty much at lousy
prices cuz we had that that just brief blast of strength in tech stocks which faded away as it is now. We're still green across the board. But let's thumb up with some broad picture stuff to kind of show you what I'm talking about. The
diamonds um I've covered my short on this. This is my biggest position. Not cuz I think this is ready to blast lifetime highs or anything like that, but um we we've got a nice little tumble on this and it's got room to rally
to lighten my risk. I think it is important that we have broken this uh this trend line cuz one by one trend lines have been um have been breaking. So, by way of example, here's another IWM, the small caps. This broke um on
Friday. I guess we stayed below um but we've been kind of lingering below these trend uh below these broken trend lines for the for the duration. Um I think that their role has flipped from support to resistance in these cases. And the
reason this is a bit of an agonizing market for everybody is we have on the market for everybody is we have on the ES been grinding around in this range for so long. Um we pushed into this range by my estimation early in May. So,
all of May, all of June, here we are almost done with July, and we have been just going nowhere fast. Um, we're essentially now we're back on May 13 uh
with not much rhyme or reason. And I'm hoping that a critical mass of earnings uh this week, next week will break us out of this this uh this quagmire. Uh a
little more clarity, I think, is held with the semiconductors. Um there's been a lot of talk lately in the past few weeks about South Korea, memory, semiconductors and the breakdown we've been seeing in the whole hypers scaling
realm and I would say that there sort of three key lines on SMH. So the broken trend line is old news that was a long time ago. So now we're shaping out what to me seems to be a pretty substantial topping pattern which has not completed
topping pattern which has not completed yet. Um down here we've got the support level which was challenged on Friday. That was the low Friday. We bounced we essentially bounced Friday and um yesterday we opened strong closed weak
and today we opened strong and at the moment are trading a little bit weak but the strength today and this is the key point um put us at this line which really constitutes the base of the the the bulk of all the trading that's taken
place over the past couple of months. So yes, this is the whole pattern, but everything above the blue line is the principal part of the pattern. Putting it another way, so long as we don't meaningfully push above this blue line,
I think that the the bears are still in control of of the semiconductor uh universe. And it's just a little bit telling to me that the the open today course, we'll have to see how the day widens up, but that's kind of the big
picture on SMH. EW is just a different flavor of that. South Korea it's so dependent on semiconductors and we've been downtrending on this um ever since midJune. I haven't drawn the lines but you can see the very clear um descending
[clears throat] channel here uh week by week. Um I've been focusing more on China lately and this morning it's going pretty good. Uh Alibaba is down about 1.7% coming off of that resistance line. BYU,
which I prefer actually between the two of them, is also down more than 1%. And most principally, and this is um my biggest options short right now, is the biggest options short right now, is the FXI. I've got September $36 um FXI puts.
FXI. I've got September $36 um FXI puts. And this has been pushing higher for um And this has been pushing higher for um for weeks now ever since June 20 uh 26. Up up up up it goes. But my view on this is that we've reached that uh enormous
blob of overhead supply and for today at least we have affirmed that reversal least we have affirmed that reversal yesterday being the peak on that. Uh so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Obviously I hope it moves much lower
because the the narrative here has been that um Chinese AI is basically almost almost as good like 98% as good but for radically less money. And so they've been getting a lot of attention. Um so FXI kind of a key position for me on
some other items. Um I I like how Carvon is behaving itself. Um earnings on this aren't until I think the 29th, so next aren't until I think the 29th, so next week I believe. Um but it has been
slowly breaking away from what I perceive as an important topping pattern perceive as an important topping pattern there. So I've got um uh puts on that as well. January is on that one given a lot of time. One other theme I just want to
of time. One other theme I just want to touch on quickly is uh how home building by way of interest rates. So here bonds have been slipping the past few days. TLT has been a really not very exciting chart at all. It's been just a big fat
have noticed that as bonds have been weakening lately. We can see over the past few weeks we've really taken a tumble. That's beginning to be felt in the home building. So here we have uh laren
which is an enormous pattern but uh you can see here this massive top that's been breaking down. It had a nice tumble yesterday and the day before and today we're down a bit and a little more obscure uh floor and decor
also taking a nice fall the past 3 days. I think this is directly related to um I think this is directly related to um that weakness in in bonds. Um, just to wrap up with a couple of broad charts here, INQ is telling much the same story
here, INQ is telling much the same story as um as I was just showing with SMH. Um, and it's it's just a bouncing ball. So, uh, we got a nice tumble on, uh, So, uh, we got a nice tumble on, uh, Friday and, uh, yesterday
just a mess. We had a whole range of trading, the same body as as Friday, but just basically closed um, near the open. And then today we've reversed all of Friday's weakness. So what's been going on here is that we were trapped in this
range for weeks. We finally broke it on Thursday/ Friday, but since Friday, 1 2 range. So we're not going to get any meaningful new selling until we can finally get below the low of this pattern that's been in place since June
9. So this has just been just a ping-pong ball for 3 days. And the last last chart, I'm not really trading energy now. Um, but stocks seem to be kind of ignoring the uh continued strength with crude oil and the
worsening situation uh with Iran and this has been just a steady climber for this has been just a steady climber for some weeks now. Um, we uh we sealed this price gap beautifully and and a little bit more. We've been pushing higher. The
the key question here is what happens with this trend line? Do we pierce this trend line? because uh if we do, I think that opens up an entirely new argument is now, it's just heading toward resistance, but if it can break above
this trend line, that's a pretty big bullish signal for energy. >> Yeah, and I I got to agree there with crude. uh we're seeing a pretty steep backwardation getting infused into these futures markets with the uh U contract
futures markets with the uh U contract at 8460, the V at 8240 and the X at 8035. So we're seeing that steepen although uh the EM NASDAQ bitcoin even are just ripping higher. So >> Tim, appreciate your time. We'll see you
>> All righty. See you guys. >> See you. Uh yeah, I think that's going to be the the interesting story that starts to unfold here. Uh with crude oil ripping higher, backradation steepening, but E- Minis and NASDAQ up one and a
half% in the NASDAQ, half a percent in the E- Minis. Uh so we'll see how it all quick 90 second break. We'll be back on the other side of it with some research. the other side of it with some research. You're watching Tasty Live.
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When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So if you are assigned, it means your option against your will ultimately has turned
into 100 shares of long or short stock. >> What does a green scratch mean? >> Oo, a green scratch refers to stubbornness, getting the best of you. And when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green scratch refers to rolling a position,
defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than uh loss that you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss, a green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent winner, 10-cent winner, 15-cent winner. Just the
ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a profitable way screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.
>> Pot odds is my favorite term. Uh but pot odds in the poker world or gambling odds in the poker world or gambling world refers to having a greater payout than your implied odds would would suggest. So let's say I have 3 to one
odds to win a pot, but the pot is giving me 4:1 odds to make that bet. I would have a positive expected value over time. So, in trading, let's say you have a defined risk debit [music] or credit spread that's currently at a max loss,
and let's say there's 30 days left to go. There's not really a reason to close that position because you're already at max loss. You can only go up from there. positive pot odd scenario or something that would give us pot odds to stay in.
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show. We got a market measure sponsored by SIBO coming up for you. Uh EM's NASDAQ trudging higher. We'll see what happens the rest of the day. But I'm only Gad. Got it. Get it. I got to say you are looking dapper today. The
you doing? >> I'm good. Thank you, man. >> Thank you. You look good as well. So, >> yeah. How did uh before we get to the feel about the ending? >> Very good.
>> It's [laughter] true. >> Football one, baby. Yeah. >> I can tell you. Are you a fan of Messi or Cristiano? >> Um I am not not a fan of Messi. I'm not like a super fan of Messi. I mean, you
know, he's fascinating. Uh, but it's fascinating to me how a man can be in a word. Never even open his mouth. That's crazy to me how many commercials he's I know he doesn't speak English, but still, he doesn't even open his mouth.
>> Anyway. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I was so happy this weekend because like Spain won and that's football one. So, >> What do you got for us? >> So, I got a really a nice piece today.
So it's AR assignments. >> What's the area assignments? What happened to traders and what's traders to be aware of that? What's the risk involved into that? So you can pop the slides. So it's really a good piece
because like we have seen so many questions from the research emails and people asking us like what's the real cost of the area assignments? What's really assignments? I I'm pretty sure you know what's assignments. But most of
assignments? I trade a strangle every day but I don't know what's assignments. It's rare to just happen is rare to happen to you. So today I'm going to go happen to you. So today I'm going to go through the details details statistics
what's the assignments is the cost also how to mitigate the risk on the directional uh risk about the uh reassignments. Let's go to the first reassignments. Let's go to the first slides please. So we use like 5 years
study I mean years of study and it's a 30 delta um strangle SPI and we most of sellers would be like we think our SMS doesn't happen most often but it you you
feel it when it happens to you and what's the reassignments so the the uh the easiest meaning or the definition for assignments like you short calls and
then before And then the buy you short call for certain kind of like expiration date. And then the buy buyers exercise it before it goes to the expiration dates before it go to the expiration date.
That's where the the buyers buy exercise it. And then most of the time it turns >> Mhm. >> And when for example let's take an example of short call. Short calls turns to um a short uh stock. A short put
turns to a long stock overnight because of reassignments. And that's a huge gap. Also, it puts your buying power into exposure of directional risk because of
the stock which is being turned to from the options. So the question we have been asking is like so what's the assignments rational? How often does it put you at risk? And also does the managing area protect you or what does
it cost to you? So managing this uh area assignment is to cut by 5% in the money or 10% in the money. So that's kind of the area area management of those kind
of area assignments because most of the time it just finish in the money like time it just finish in the money like almost 60% the trades finish the money and then when you cut before it went in the money by 5% or 10% that's kind of
the money by 5% or 10% that's kind of the reassignment I mean management of your trades. So when you go to to next slides
call it it it happens into dividends. So it happen when the dividend is worth it happen when the dividend is worth more than the call leftover time value that's when the short uh the short call assignment happen on the short call. So
assignment happen on the short call. So when it happen short puts in high rates. So it happens when interest rates in on the cash beats the puts left over time of various that's where in on short puts these kind of area assignments happens
and then when there's high rates so this kind of like the a a study I mean a a slides which demonstrates when you you're trading strangle because you have those those above rates you you kind of have to be pay attentions when you're
you're trading because like when you are you have the dividends high rates dividends high rates there's a potential is possib possibility like you'll be assigned AR because your buyers will exercise it before it gets to expiration
dates so let's go to statistics and see what numbers will tell us what numbers will tell us so remember I told you like to do these segments we hold two expirations and then we manage by cutting 5% money and
then we manage by cutting 5% money and 10% money. So in general when you hold 30 delta strangle uh for 5 years stud from now it wins by 6 66%
of the time that's the pop probability of win of profit I mean and then the of win of profit I mean and then the median is almost like $500 and then but the losers you're going to lose a lot almost like 70 grand during
the sell off this is happened in April when the 30 sell happens. This is like worst uh ros happens, worst case scenario that happen on your trade when you're trading this third delta. And this comes to the to bring us to the uh
to the table of like discussions. This assignments needs to be needs to be needs to be happens in a deep in the money as I said and then that's rare. But in a general case for the strangle when you trade a strangle 30 delta
when you trade a strangle 30 delta strangle you see 65 uh 61% of your trade will finish in the money and that's where the reassignment happens during that time of the uh high interest rates. So and when 61% happens
interest rates. So and when 61% happens in the money but only 10% or 11% uh get past 5% of the strike in the money and then only less than 2% also money and then only less than 2% also get past pass to 10% in the money.
That's rare but that's where the ter risk lives because when you you put a risk lives because when you you put a strangle on 60 uh 61% strangle on 60 uh 61% will finish in the money only 11% will
will finish in the money only 11% will pass 5% and 2% will pass 10% in the money. So that's where the t risk will be will live in. So this is like a presentations how we can measure our ter risk in quantitative way. So let's put
risk in quantitative way. So let's put into perspective of not only percentage let's put perspective of dollars. Let's go to the next slides. So the obvious cut as I said the area management of these assignments is to cut by 5% money
10% in money before it get deeper enough to be assigned. So but when you hold to the explanations these are strangle you will see the the average P is 170 the
medium will be $546 the pop will be 66% and then the silver that's where you pay attention silver and the average P&L the silver is $3400 that's the oceros when you don't you
hold until the expirations and that's when the trade will finish in the money by 61%. And when you manage by 5% when you cut And when you manage by 5% when you cut 5% in the money on the whole strangle we
5% in the money on the whole strangle we look your P&L will be 66 6% which is look your P&L will be 66 6% which is like 22% in reduction and your silver will be less and when you go to the leg when you you only cut by which leg has
been uh tested you will see your silver also not change it's 2700 let's go to the hall when you manage by 10%. You will see like the average PNET is 112. But the silver is even greater than when
you hold until the expirations. On the next slide, I explain why the silver when you manage by 10 when you cut by 10% in the money. It's when even higher than when you hold it until the expirations. So, can you guess why?
>> Why it's cutting shrinks it? >> Yeah. When you cut by 5% it's less than when you hold. But when you cut by 10% in the money, it's even greater deceiver expirations. >> Well, you have the ability for that to
reverse. >> Smart. Correct. [laughter] So that's that's the real meaning. So when you cut by 5% in your money, it cuts by 3,400 to 2,600. That's real protections by
cutting 5%. But when you wait until uh 10% in your money, it gets to 10% in your money. So by then the de the damage has been occurred, you must you have
been already taken the ros and also usually the market bounce back and then you cut before the market bounce back. You then arrow your trade to bounce back a little bit, right? That's where the loss the ter risk it's enormous. That's
where when you cut by 10% you lose more than even you hold until the expirations. So this is kind of like a question you get from our customers. So can I cut by 5% 10% can I hold expirations? I think this slides can
answer your questions. When you hold until the expirations the P&L will be greater the silver will be a little bit also a lot but when you cut by 5%. your P&L will reduce but you will cut the losses and also when you you you cut by
10%. You cut you you allow the losses to sink in and also you didn't allow the market to bounce back for you to correct the premium or the profit as well. >> Mhm. >> So let's go to the final slides the the
>> So let's go to the final slides the the takeaways. So assignments is in the as I said it happens you feel it when it happens to you most of traders they don't feel it because they they manage they try to manage their trades
>> and when it happens just you feel it it can like overturn your your your whole can like overturn your your your whole profits. So the management of 5% on risk is the real precautions is your protections. When you wait until 10%
that's where you get the pain of your management. So keep it simple causing the whole triangle within the Doras. Just don't chase the profit
psychologically. Make sure you understand this logic. Don't just the understand this logic. Don't just the the like the profit just cause manage your trades as early as possible. Don't wait until you cut by 10% 5% it's okay.
You take your profit and you cut your losses. That's remain important. And you >> I like it. >> Mhm. I've been assigned maybe three times in my 10 plus years of trading. Mhm.
>> Um, [clears throat] so it it is really rare, but I think the the highest occurrence is certainly around dividends because those are really the ones where by it unless you're paying attention to it where and and dividends can be high
you're outside of assignment risk because you have a ton of extrinsic of exttrinsic value. >> Uh that would help you prevent that. But if the dividend is higher than the exttrinsic value, it actually makes
mathematical sense for the counterparty to exercise it where just a random assignment for other reasons like like low extrinsic value. We're offsetting days, 14 days, whatever, and we're adding more extrinsic value to the
trade. So that pushes us out of the assignment risk as well. But yeah, if 10% in the money move, especially in something like SPY or the NASDAQ, >> we've seen so many research pieces where the further down we go, the higher the
out, three months out, six months out, we're in the high 90% that we have a reversal. So, uh, yeah, love it. >> Thank you, man. >> Great stuff. >> Amazing. Um, and certainly the best
dressed man in the office. [laughter] Thank you guys. to eat the chicken. [laughter] So, >> hey, just eat a ton of chicken. That's all you can do. >> Uh, E- Mini's up 45, NASDAQ up 440.
flipping around, but we're going to take a quick 90 second break. You're watching a quick 90 second break. You're watching Tasty Live.
from this morning. Bodacia, our raid really distracted me. I was like, "Get away from me, uncontrollable fire." >> I told you, Tasty Gra, you can't plunder maybe. >> Sometimes I'll hide in a gross Pete bug
in the middle of a raid just so I don't miss market measures. I'm only recently comfortable admitting this, but I think I TRUST MARKET MEASURES MORE THAN I I TRUST MARKET MEASURES MORE THAN I TRUST my savage hellhorse, ARBITRAGE.
slaughtered a horde of conformants this morning. Did the whole terrifying row of severed heads on pikes as a warning thing, but you never know with those thing, but you never know with those idiots. Okay, thanks for the heads up.
>> Normally I hate puns, but that one was okay.
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tasty people are happy, I'm sure, with that. Uh, up 50, NASDAQ up 450. The that in quite some time. >> Everything big moves.
>> It's crazy. I'm here with Jal and we got Marty Vennett in the house, the one and >> Everything's obviously awesome, isn't it? Look at these markets. Everything is >> it seems. Yeah, >> that's what the people want. They want
smiling. Everyone's happy. that >> line of not line of demarcation, but it >> Yeah. >> Yeah. We've seen a couple of like um
volume pockets today at those levels. It's like boom, and then it just rips a >> and SpaceX is up today. >> That's the thing. >> That's the thing. SpaceX, CBRS, and SKH Highix.
>> And then, of course, MU made another like when that gets in that 850 range. It's >> It's unbelievable how that thing moves. I mean, I kind of like trading it, but I looked at it again this morning and it's
>> 940 almost. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And then it tests that 1,00 level. And >> that's what I'm hoping it does actually. >> SpaceX, what do you guys think? kind of like it like maybe 110 or something. I
mean, I don't know how you gauge where the support is in that. >> You don't exactly. I don't either. Like, how do you know levels? Like, I don't >> 225 isn't an anomaly, right? >> Trust me, I bet people have their levels
crazy. >> Had a couple calls about it and they're like I'm like, not that we ever give advice. But that being said, and isn't shares that that were restricted that they got to let out too that that are
maybe have been flooding the market >> maybe, >> Yeah, I can't determine if this is like beginning of the bounce after this low
guess you know, only time will tell in these situations. Yeah, that's what I I I'm like I don't know where this is going to go in the near term, but I feel go higher, maybe a little bit higher. So,
>> I sold a put at 125. We're This is the Jan 2028 cycle, 550 days out. >> Sold a put at 125 to buy a call at 300 and I routed the whole thing for a $350 Nothing happens. I still make a little bit, but if you get the ace if you get
>> you get that asymmetry. So >> he he's difficult to fade as I've said >> sir Elon Musk. >> Yeah. I mean it's just difficult to because you know obviously the way that
doesn't really matter if they actually make money but you know that becomes something that people have to have or want to have. So you're dealing with a different you know uh qualifier for it. But he's always been difficult to fade,
you know, even with Tesla and just >> But I can't get heads or tails around how this thing is going to move, which is, you know, I guess vexing to say the >> Tesla [snorts] was my first experience when I when it first started popping
from like 50 up to 100, up to 200, up to 300. And I started paying attention to these earnings calls and it was like >> we're only losing four$4 dollars a higher. I'm like, what is happening right now? like this to your point, it's
like it doesn't matter. It's it's not about the company itself. It's about the >> Yeah. >> How's the uh day so far? Pretty busy on the desk. Is it busy on days like that? >> Today has been a little There was a few
assignments early. I don't know. >> We just had an assignment piece. >> Um not that not like like Monday and Mondays now are like basically almost like Fridays. It gets really busy. It gets a little hectic, which is nice. Uh
today has been it's busy. It's just not crazy busy. And I think that this is part and parcel of it because everybody's so used to seeing this thing ripping higher every day. It's like, okay, it's just like another day in
this. But, uh, a few assignments in Spy. I saw somebody get a sign today. Spy was talking to my guys about it that had like, uh, a 760 753
like, uh, a 760 753 short put spread on and they he got assigned by someone. There was like $1,300 in extrinsic on it. Bonus. >> That happened to him a couple of weeks
>> That's crazy to me that these things happen like that. Like what? [laughter] >> Because you like I always would say like try to portray, you know, if it gets deep in the money, you might you probably got a target on your back. You
sometimes nothing happens. And then I'll see these assignments that make very I mean I don't know how bad you want it [laughter] to be long >> buy at 753 when you could just you know get out of your option and buy the stock
but you know there's it's it's I guess there's another thing that's kind of conceptual right >> there is no exact obviously but you know you try to give them as close to keeping an eye on their positions as possible so
>> Right. Right. >> Wow. These [snorts] super early people >> They don't understand options. >> I'm like it's $9 and of the spread at like I think the there was a 760 if I'm not mistaken. It was
they sold the whole spread at like 76820. Like okay well that's another way to strategize with spreads. Right. dinner. >> So it could happen. You know, you
probably would rather have luck than 100% of your skill when you're trading >> Work for me, you know, or still does. >> But what do we got for top 20 symbols there. >> Uh, you know, they are uh they got to be
>> no. >> No. Look at >> Well, look at them. All right. At number 20, we have Meta at a 90. Uh 19, MSTR at >> You go backwards. I forgot. I'm like, wait, what? Oh my god. Backwards guy. I
want It's a big lead up. Can't you see the big [laughter] It makes it so tantalizing when you're waiting to top five. Netflix at 18 and 34. TQQQ the five. Netflix at 18 and 34. TQQQ the triple Q 65 16 Amazon 58 15 Microsoft 98
triple Q 65 16 Amazon 58 15 Microsoft 98 nice SLV at 1429 IBIT 22 at 13 uh DOCN nice SLV at 1429 IBIT 22 at 13 uh DOCN at 12 at 106. S O XL 101 at 11. Top 10.
>> Feel it. >> I'll do a drum roll for you when it gets hot. >> Coin at number 10, 78%. SMH in the nine >> Coin at number 10, 78%. SMH in the nine spot 93. Intel at 101 at 8. Apple at
spot 93. Intel at 101 at 8. Apple at seven at 77. SanDisk at 98 at six. Top five SpaceX. >> No one can figure it out. at number five at 81%. All right, other small
companies, bigger company, Tesla is at a 44 at number four. Uh number three, AMD 44 at number four. Uh number three, AMD at 96. Nvidia, that's kind of shocking. >> that's you know, uh at 27 at number two and MU 89% at Numero Uno. How was that
>> I like it. Fantastic. I like it. Round of applause. We should start when you're >> Yeah, I know, right? >> Nobody know. and then have someone hand >> I'm [laughter] not going to believe this. It's a tie
>> between Tesla. >> Yeah. >> Micron's interesting though. Micron's uh to your point, it got down yesterday or >> Yep. So, >> I don't know if there's a number at that
820 850. I'm going to have to look when I go back to the desk, but it's just has an amazing ability in that low eights to mid8s number to pop right back up into >> Yeah. And that was >> that was exemplified. Yeah. On what is
that? Friday. Yeah. 17th. So we had a high of 903, a low of 804. there. >> Yeah. >> Short put spreads, people. Short put spreads.
>> We love them. Uh Marty, appreciate your time. Many time as always. Thanks for when you're on night. We have to [clears throat] >> We have to have someone handing me stuff. I mean, I do like the envelope
>> You have a TV spokes model. >> It's the number one envelope. >> I love it. Well, we've got a crazy market here. It means up 46. NASDAQ up 460. Everything's green on the screen. Uh crude oil up two points as well. But
morning. We got Liz and Chris on the other side of it. We'll see you a little bit later today. You're watching Tasty Live.
>> I had to rewatch that market measures from this morning. Bodacia, our raid really distracted me. I was like, "Get away from me, uncontrollable fire." plunder with headphones on. Light pillaging. Maybe sometimes I'll hide in
a gross pete pog in the middle of a raid just so I don't miss market measures. >> I'm only recently comfortable admitting this, but I THINK I TRUST MARKET MEASURES MORE THAN I TRUST MY SAVAGE HELLHORBITURE.
slaughtered a horde of conformants this morning. Did the whole terrifying row of thing, but you never know with those idiots. Okay, thanks for the heads up.
>> Normally, I hate puns, but that one was okay.
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It's still Tuesday, July 21st. Uh I'm Chris Veio. She's Liz Dear King. Liz, >> you know what? This is uh this is a great day. A great day to be alive, Chris Veio. A great day to be alive. Bitcoin's up. Gold is up. Silver is up.
>> Time out. You start off with it's a great day to be alive because Bitcoin's >> what's happened to you. >> We got We got to talk something. I mean, been kind of just holding I've been just holding my Bitcoin as it's been
plummeting. And by and when I say Bitcoin, I am doing the proxies. I've Bitcoin, I am doing the proxies. I've got the ETH. I bet EA. So, but yeah. good news. Uh we talked about on yesterday's market measures with Kai.
but we'll do it again. Uh Bitcoin tends to have a positive correlation with the stock market these days, particularly postcoid. So uh you know those days when of slouching down, you I always ask myself the question, doesn't really feel
like a solid risk rally, does it? >> No, it does not. It's been pretty that that can't catch a bid. And when the days of and I would love to deep dive deeper into this with Kai because Bitcoin used to have a high implied
of sucked out of all those cryptocurrencies and we're still seeing cryptocurrencies and we're still seeing that little meandering. Now I I I in as my favorite macroeconomist do not tell Ilia. Um I think it has to do with the
clarity and the clarity act is giving Bitcoin this little lift. Is it going to making conversation with Bitcoin being up three almost two and a half percent. >> So Beston said today that it's at the one yard line. I want to just draw the
that you point out the raw volatility in the 40s. I mean yeah the 10 days out is 51%. But sitting in the 40s I think we could head over to like a micron for And I mean that's probably part of the problem that cryptos had here, Liz.
>> When it came around, this is during the 2010s. Volatility is crushed. Interest nothing going on a lot of the time. >> And so you looked at Bitcoin and there was just just this gigantic >> volatility premium over everything else.
No matter where you looked >> over the case far and away over >> And it's all sucked out of it. And there's other things that are moving more. So, if you're a short-term trader who's looking for big price swings,
crypto doesn't give that to you anymore. Or at least on a relative basis, other >> but it's not as shiny and new, right? It's not the new object that everybody's that anymore. Now they're talking about semis. It's it's insane. Like when
be like, "Hey, do you own crypto?" Oh, and my favorite was XRP. When XRP that and my favorite was XRP. When XRP that XRP army is crazy, like [laughter]
are a few people who when they ask me and they're lovely people, but the finance is definitely not their forte or even markets and so they're like, "Yeah, coin is going to bottom?" It's like, "Oh, buddy."
>> Not yet. [laughter] Not yet. >> And I haven't been I haven't been wrong be >> Okay. No, but Chris, this is just to let >> Okay. No, but Chris, this is just to let you into my my weird personality. I So
was like, I got to get long XRP cuz if these fools make money and as much money I miss it, we're in the world. [laughter]
>> Exactly. That's conversation. >> I mean, the conversation about XRP, they millionaires. I was like, if these people become the wealthy, we are in a world of urge. [laughter] Before we hop over to confirm send a
mentioned the cryptos are doing well today. So are the tech stocks here. NASA is your leader Liz up 1.4% 412 points. You mentioned the semiconductors being a big part of it. Indeed they are. They're up 3.6% today. Uh we're getting a little
here. A little bit of recovery. But I mean Liz, today really is uh the come before the storm, is it not? Are we not waiting here for the Tesla earnings, the Alphabet earnings tomorrow? I see 500 I almost threw up. 531,000 contracts
poultry. That is [clears throat] >> It's weird. >> Who's trading this market? >> They're just waiting, right? So, it's something that I think that you might find interesting? I was asking you did a
you guys haven't [clears throat] seen Chris do do his thing, I believe it's on the Tasty YouTube channel. You're killing it, by the way. Um, and so this activity there. Can you do me a favor and go to SPX? So, I'm um like I said,
I'm old school. I I follow the SIBO the SIBO metric. So, I look at SPX. This is usually whenever I look at the most actively traded, it's always zeros across the board. Calls puts 00. Today, on the put side, go to September 4th in
>> September 4th. >> Yes. This is what I found fascinating. I I I I had to rub my eyes. So, September 4th, it's the 60 puts 6,1006,000.
>> Yeah. And it's all today the leader of the board right now in the put department. >> Now you know Frank the Great is telling is is currently I'm not looking at the chat but I'm sure he's telling me for
don't know what they have on the on that. But I just find it fascinating when you can see big players go into something right now. Do they buy it or >> It's cheap >> but it's for sure a spread for sure. the
6100 6,000 spread. That's easy because the numbers were identical. >> I mean, are you willing to put down 110 bucks to make uh almost $9,900? That >> I did. I did because I'm a junkie in the And so that's why there's a one next to
it on the other side because [laughter] I I bought it because I wanted to watch it and I know in my mind it's easier for me to keep an eye on things when I've got it in my account. So, I bought one.
unusual activity. I mean volume above the open interest 500 I mean 53,000 contracts compared to an open interest of less than a K there maybe those are fresh positions maybe someone's washing something rolling but uh we'll have to
keep an eye on that for tomorrow that's a huge swing in up 45 days you mentioned zero DTE being the point of interest here that's more volume than the current
here that's more volume than the current at the money calls have in S&P 7500 is >> it is the leader of the board. So the 7500 today 65,000 have traded, but the leader on the put side is you go September September. It's bonkers to me.
it because it's a number that I like to keep an eye on. And I made the boys this was going to end. And my pick was 7500 because of the gravitational pull activity that I'm seeing just and that's all I'm saying. I I think round numbers
when I looked at it to see about how accurate if those numbers were climbing, puts and I saidoo, I'm going to keep an eye on those. [laughter] it's one of the things that you're paying attention to today in part
it's worth. >> We mentioned the lack of volume in both very much the case even as we're seeing stocks pushing here to highs. Uh now 1.7% higher on the Nasdaq here. Nice little jump the past minute or two. But
the reason again is because of the earnings which as the audience may find what they're talking about. That's what they've been sending in questions about today. Liz here for confirm and send. As always, you can send us your questions.
Research tastily.com. Research tasty.com or put them in the chat. Subscribe and you're on the platform, thanks for being on the platform. But come over to YouTube, join the conversation. Hey uh producers, let's head over to our
confirm and send for the day, shall we? Let's get into it here. They are all >> They are all >> Tesla's priced for 5.6% tomorrow, but is gapped 8, 10, and even 12% on past prints. If you wanted to sell that rich
wiping you out, what defined risk structure actually makes sense here, twofold. We can do the theory here and then we can look to the actual options chain in Tesla. But let's break down the theory first.
I mean the the the actual answer here is that you a defined risk setup is the out with a double digit move. Iron condor or something of that nature if collapse but want to make sure that it's inside instead of outside Tesla. So for
earnings nine times out of 10 and that's nine times out of 10 the ball is pricing in less of a move than you get for this. Tesla Tesla is a gapper in my opinion. So, it does gap up and down um on earnings and it and it has pricier
moves, but that volatility should get you out of the way of the expected move. What are you going to do in Tesla? You condor. I like to use the premium to make a directional assumption. I will probably sell puts or put spreads um and
and and get myself out of the way of the expected move, but so here you could do the 60 36055 or the you got to go to the expected move. You can't bring it in that close. >> Yeah. No. So, can we address the first
>> If you think so say the market tomorrow's price for 5% 6% 5.6% move. >> But if you're looking at past reports and you go, uh, 8 10 12 I'm a little worried about that, then don't sell at the expected move,
>> But if you're going to follow the mechanics, that's where you'd go. You you're worried about the gap, you don't want to be caught caught in like a short you. I'm curious what you think about this though, Liz. If you have a
directional assumption here, but you want to take advantage of the volatility, would you do something like a broken iron condor where you instead you kind of maybe give a little bit more space to the downside? Sure, absolutely
directional assumption and it's earnings, I'm only playing one side though because I I I don't think that I I you are playing for a V collapse, directional, I'm typically playing one side. And in my I I know getting outside
the expected move is probably will give you will protect you when you get scenarios aren't there. If you were going to take this and go to, I don't getting pennies. It's not worth the risk.
have to push it out to a point where you're not getting compensated for the risk that you're taking, even if that seems to be like the proper setup, >> right? >> You don't need to trade every single
earnings report. So, I mean, uh yeah, if you sell too close trying to get paid, the trade's going to could wipe you out on a gap. >> It could tomorrow. So, three days to expectation.
impression if that's okay right now. Mhm. Because so TP always says that I because could it move? Sure. But this is my impression. Probabilities are the
probabilities is what he would say. So and ask him to do that. The the probabilities. So taking a look at this. Yeah, there you're at a standard it's anything else. Have they can they move outside? Sure. Right. But as long
as you stay defined risk and know that you can lose $349 if it blows it out of about, you're worried about it blowing out of the water, then definitely define your risk or avoid it, avoid it at all cost. But these are the probabilities
you can get. You have a high chance of getting $154 tomorrow, win this trade, widening this out a little bit because I'm worried it's 5.6% isn't enough, risk. I'm going out to the one standard deviation just to poke around here. And
you know what? We're going five points wide. You're probably looking for a $167 >> Yeah, probability of profit. So maybe that was too tight, but you can still do
something here in a risk defined manner that provides a decent. You know what? to the one standard deviation here. Let's see if we can get filled and put >> I like this because and you're and you're a day early, which is giving you
a little bit more um a little bit more room as well. little bit more room, teeny tiny bit more room. Question number two, >> Oracle, which is a really tough stock right now. Oracle here has been in freef
fall for weeks and is now oversold near its 52- week low. We'll get into that in hates it. Is a name that's actually this beaten down and this hated actually the dangerous. >> It's my favorite kind whether it's
dangerous or not. I love things that are beaten down and everyone hates. That is my favorite time to jump in. um and only to the one side. So when they say sell low, I'm selling puts. It's very hard for me and I know this is
those. That's just because I at some point I think at some point I think they pe Oracle might be a name that is beloved again and all of a sudden it's going to shoot up. >> Uh I don't really care that the stock is
oversold at a 52- week low. I mean, maybe that's a me personal thing, but when I think about RSI, it's all about relativity, and it's also predicated on a study that's tethered to the cycle of the moon, which I don't know that has
>> Wait, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Rewind. What's on the cycle of the moon? >> Uh, relative strength index, RSI, is uh predicated on following the half cycle of of of moon cycle. That's why it's set to 14 days.
>> Really? So I just don't I look at that and like it's a useful indicator when you're comparing it to itself how it but RSI alone something being overbought or a momentum person. So when something's oversold that means it's a great time to
sell because momentum's strong. I don't want to be buying something when momentum when momentum's on tilt. So right now I look at slow stochcastics Oracle. Slow stochcastics went into oversold territory in June. And if that
since about $180 a share. Instead, if you saw the slow stochcastics as the confirmation that momentum had accelerated into a defined state being bearish and you got short, then you've been short from 180 to about 124. So
that's that's how I use stochcastics. I don't RSI being overbought, oversold means nothing. >> I actually derive that indicator a lot. are my favorite macroeconomist because I will look at this chart. You can cover
it up and I would sell puts until my hands blood because not at the money way and like you said if I was going to be long at 180 it's only at 124 right you might have actually made money on selling puts out of the money puts in a
selling puts out of the money puts in a 45day cycle even with this move. I'm going back to the weekly chart here for Oracle. The lows that we had last March those are nearby just around 120. And so that I mean that to me is going
to be a more significant thing than any overbought and oversold. So Liz, if you catching a falling knife, but we're catching a falling knife into support. >> You can make a better case. >> That's the case I would make here. We're
at a multi- near a multi-year low, not just that 52- week low for a particular >> I know. I like it, but I don't look at any technical indicators. I look literally just look at I literally just look at the option chain. Sometimes I'll
chain says there's premium in there, you've got a you've got a 61 rank. So for me, I could go in the August 21st cycle with 31 days with a 61 rank and would do to avoid the earnings. >> Yeah. You know, Frank points out, he's
I'm not a contrarian. I'm more of a trend follower. That's true. I learned from reading the Jack Schwagger market wizard books and Richard Dennis Turtle Duck Miller did and George like that's
with the market. So, I just, you know, I see a falling knife and I don't say opportunity in my my words do, but that's what makes a market. It's so because one of my favorite trading strategies through the earning cycle is
to have to bear with me on this but one of the people where they were out they would every day um and if a big earning cycle came out and say say you know Oracle I forget what's on the deck Tesla they won't trade it for the earnings
morning if it's up they make a bullish play or buy the stock just for that day to see if the momentum keeps going the names. >> Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. And so it's one of
my favorite things to do because because you can look at it. So at Tesla's up big the stock just for the day and then get out of it. It's a one day play. I loved >> Yeah, he's a he has a lot of those good books, which I think, you know, for me,
>> I'm not going to be able to learn every trading style, so picking the brains of the way. >> Uh, who reads these days anymore, Question number three, we're reading here. When you're selling an earnings
decide between a straddle and a strangle? What makes one the better choice over the other? >> Uh I bore an ear earnings move. >> It is the purest way to sell an earnings
move. I And when you when you think about it, the math is the math is the you're selling a straddle, it is the expected move. So just kind of going, don't mind. So go to anything. You can go to Tesla. We've been talking about
it. So, if you go to Tesla and open the 3-day and then sell the Strat, just sell the the F at the money straddle, the 380 or 382 and a half, it doesn't matter either way. There you go. So, we are getting $23.
Look up in that at at the the the parenthesis, it's just about $23. Back at the napkin math, the straddle is the expected move for the cycle. And that's those are that's that's the math of it. So, if you are in it just for selling
premium and you want to do this, the straddle is just the cleanest. Um, that is the math portion of it and it's all there for you. And that's how before before you kids had that little expected move and the brown bar is the visual
representation of it. All we had was the throttle. So, that was the math behind There's no gaming of the system. These are very these are very um efficient liquid product. That's your cleanest way to do it. I typically do not sell
straddles because I want to give myself as much my high probability trade if I'm selling without risk definition is I would be doing the 360 and then whatever the top is is at 400 on the brown bar because that's where the expected move
of cushion behind there. That's what I do. straddle your gamma risk is highest right where the current stock is trading have a little bit of a problem on your hands. Um, but the the strangle on the
up some credit up front, but you're trading that off for a little bit more probability in your favor, so to speak. So, the market can oscillate a bit. It donkey right away for you to maximize your profit. Um, so yeah, you're
collecting less, but the market can afford to move more. It depends where something like Tesla, you mentioned yesterday Tesla being a unique stock, this is appropriate for like an Apple or an Alphabet that's coming out, but do
straddle versus strangle for a stock like a Tesla or maybe even a SpaceX now? >> So, like I said, I I'm never doing a straddle. I'm always going to be if I'm strangle and I will be doing a strangle in in in some of those as well because
it does it gives you it turns it into a more high probability trade. Now you So there is like I said the common sense like one will bring your break even if you say the straddle just stay right here
for a second. This brings your break even to you know you're just under 357. So let's say 356 right and it's it brings you to 356 right? That's my break even to the downside. Now if you just look and what I was saying was that I
want to sell that 360 put. Where does that bring my break even? Almost to the same spot. So these are all versions of the same trade. It's whatever. You know what I'm saying? There there's not that much difference between the two when you
compare break even to break even. >> I I think going back to question number one with Tesla, right? If someone was thinking about Tesla with like a stock where the the the move afterwards has been
consistently outperforming what the market's been pricing in, right? Tesla's 5.6%, but recently we've seen 8 10 12% gaps. you're not doing uh you're not defined risk. So yes, maximum opportunity also maximum loss tradeoff
with a little bit more risk definition. You lose some pro uh you know maximum probability of a better outcome for yourself. towards straddles and lower price products because there's no payment for
going to go out and sell something for 20 cents if it's a low price product where you might be able to get a dollar and a dollar for the call on the foot. Last question from an Alphabet perspective, which is one of those other
Google reports tomorrow after the close. Historically, the stock keeps grinding in the two weeks after the report. One quarter it was up 2.45% the day after and kept climbing to 4.46% two weeks later. If you wanted to play that upside
how would you structure it the morning after? So, not even going into report, interesting question. >> This is my fa This is kind of what I was if Google's up and you want to get in afterwards, I wait till it's open and I
trade. Have you ever heard of the buffer trade? and I would do all the time. A researcher a long time ago I think he was pre pre you would talk about this. There are things called the buffer ETF.
Now the buffer ETF on paper sounds so scary and everybody likes it because upside. You can you're going to give up a little bit of your upside to buffer right? And so I was like, "Wait a minute." As I say to my kids, I need
"More sugar. More sugar. More sugar." And I asking questions and asking questions. The buffer ETF and they're selling it like hot cakes is essentially um a covered call. A covered call with a put spread to protect it, right? With a
buffering your downside, but the width of the put spread by giving up your upside by using the call to buy that to buy that put spread. So, I will after earnings, especially in big products like this, put in my synthetic buffer.
Google and I'm you don't want to put it in today. You want to put it after the in today. You want to put it after the close and open up uh open up the 3-day. Fine. Okay. So, open up the 3-day and this is what I would do after earnings.
So, I'm not saying right now. Buy No, you got to go up farther. Buy the 350 >> 350 put. Buy 350 340. You're going to buffer your downside by by the 350 340. by $10. And then what are you paying for at 4? You're paying $480. So, then
cuz we're going to do a synthetic covered call. Stay in the puts. You're going to go to the you're going to sell the 362 put, which is a synthetic covered call. That is a buffer trade, which means you
can make money from 350 to 362, but you don't get long the stock until 340. And I do it in the zero day or the nearest term because if it continues its move up, great. If it falls back down, then I'm long it at a lower price than it
was. So, I will put these on a lot of times in big moving products after earnings. >> That's definitely not how I approach this. [laughter] >> I didn't think so. You and I are you and
I are two sides to the coin. >> You're the shinier side of the coin for that clear here. Uh, you know, listen, I'm I'm I like to play uh play my trades around these trying to look through and recently it was just I want to get to
that drift. I have high confidence in Google. The numbers look really good. CFA charter holder hat where I'm looking through their actual fundamentals. I go, still." And yeah, their free cash flow has come in a little bit, but it's still
a money printing machine here. I'm sitting short the 325 330 put spread right now. It's two pennies up right now. That's nice. Uh the idea here is lows and the report's going to give us that upward drift. I would personally I
like I'm gonna buy a $400 call for maybe like October Xree and set it forget it. But it's a little expensive right now and the market broadly speaking is money calls. >> But didn't they didn't they say what to
>> how would you structure it the morning after? Which is why like I just I'm not a morning after earnings type of trader. So I don't have a good answer. >> Yeah. No, I do it. I I do like that. I I know you're a momentum. You you do like
the momentum that I will follow is the day after earnings because sometimes, follow-through with with those big wide moves. And I mean, and does it work? Sure. Sometimes it's a it goes up and then comes right back down. So
>> yeah, if you were looking for the uh you and I were talking before by the way as the market wizards folks, it's Mark Minervini and David Ry and use their contraction patterns to trade earnings.
It was in one of the Jack Schwagger books. Uh market wizards, you should go endorsed, Liz, although if Jack Schwagger wants to pay tasty for, you know, maybe we can make something happen here. Uh Liz, we're getting ready to
close out this 30 minute section of confirm and send. Before we do, a quick look at these markets. SMH semis are up more than they were when we first checked in, 4.5% right now. S&P up now 8/10en of a percent, 60 points. Your
8/10en of a percent, 60 points. Your NASDAQ up nearly 1.9% right now. 29,317. erased for what it's worth. We've completely wiped those out. The Russell up over 1%. Even your Bitcoin, you said it's a good day to be alive, Liz,
because Bitcoin is up. Never thought I'd hear those words coming from your mouth. And crude here still the stick in the mud up 2.4%. We're going to find more out about that later. Liz, uh, end of day here, second half of the session,
just preparing for Alphabet earnings, Tesla earnings, or do you have big trade thus far? >> I have not been hiding anything. I am big big juicy earnings as they come in tomorrow. So, that's that's my plan.
>> There you have it. She's been Liz Ding. I've been Chris Veio. This has been another uh 30-minute episode of Confirm and Send. You're watching Tasty Live. Be at tastylive.com or put them in the chat. Come back in about two minutes
time. Errol and Gus are here. We have more live trading right ahead.
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club. Tasty Tra. [music] Tuesday. Uh we got a little bit more volatility in the market. We'll do a bit. But brother Gus, how we doing today? Glad to have you back. How we
Feeling feeling refreshed. I don't know. yesterday. I was happy to happy to have the travel day off yesterday to kind of but yeah, feeling feeling back on top of things and ready to uh ready to attack
>> What is it? Uh mountain time over there. >> Yeah, it's No, it's it's that's Pacific. >> Is it Pacific? Okay. Yeah, >> I got you. Yeah. No. Um, uh, again, like to ask you about how the trip was just because, uh, that's something I actually
know I asked you about some of the new releases. Is there any hidden gems that >> What you mean like about the event itself? gems? Anything to come uh that you guys got a little bit more of a sneak peek
>> Yeah. For those not in the loop, part of part of this this trip to Vegas was going to uh the the Call of Duty Championship, CDL Champs in Vegas. Um, it was cool. It was really really well done. I mean, there was certainly things
broadcast that they do in the arena to to you know, make it cool for the but no, I mean, I would say holistically, it was pretty much what I occasional uh you know, different different thing on uh on the on the
video board or whatever I may not have been aware of. Uh holistically, yeah, I expected. I wouldn't say there were crazy any crazy hidden gems. Met a few players around the arena. That was cool. I got a beta code for for the new game,
so that was cool. slide that beta code. >> Yeah. So, I don't know. A few few little really good job. >> Good, good, good. No, I mean, as we get into things, we can jump right into the TC platform. Um, again, I know it was a
not too much has has really gone on if if we're being completely honest. It's could say, over the last couple of days. Um, but it's nice to see some of the memory names kind of recovering a little bit more here on the day. I know things
like INCC, uh, Micron, SNDK, these things are recovering just a little bit more. So, that's been a little bit, uh, new. And finally, SpaceX is catching a bid. You got any thoughts on SpaceX? It's been such a downside ever since the
seen that you kind of pointed out and we've just been sliding lower and lower ever since. So, nice to see you catch a bid there. Uh, a little bit of life in >> Yeah. Yeah. The life has has really just been sucked out of this thing. Just
paper cut days over and over. I mean, all the way down from from 150 straight to, you know, we tested 120 uh yesterday. I I did pay some attention to that, but yeah, I mean, I don't know. It's just it's it's a tough spot. I I
growth vehicle. I would have I I would have no issue with anybody choosing to even, you know, go as far as some calls potentially, but uh I I just I I don't that I want to try to step in front of at this juncture.
could say we we can let SpaceX find itself. Yeah, I guess SpaceX is trying >> Well, yeah, exactly. It needs to it needs to find its its fair fair valuation. Is that is that 135? Is that the the you know, 150 that it actually
wound up IPOing at? Uh it's it's a it's a difficult uh line to line to try to tow what what fair value might might be on SpaceX here. Um and again, it's like, hits and we do all this talking about, oh, SpaceX is it's hurting so bad. Then
leaderboard, it's still the 10th largest company in the world. Well, it's still a $ 1.5 trillion company. It's just not 1.75 like it was when it first came out. giant company. I I still think the growth the growth prospects are there. I
leaps at these levels, but as far as actually trying to pick short-term week or 30 days or anything like that. I I'm I'm >> I hear you. I'm kind of in the same boat there. Kind of a little bit more hands
off of the same kind of opinion of you. Let it kind of figure out what this fair value that is going to be on this. It still feels like it's in kind of just IPO type behavior right now. So, I mean, with that being said, we had sold an out
of those are being tested. They're both in the money right now. Uh, we ended up selling the 135, bought the 13, $5 wide, nothing too crazy, but since we do have of in the boat of where we just got to sit patient, right? I mean, 31 days left
much sense to close this trade out right now. Um, it's best we just wait, see if and then we can redeploy that capital elsewhere. But since we're already, you you know, might as well sit in the next, you know, 31 days. Um, but then when I
like, yo, summer's going to be over in 31 days. I I look at some of these expirations like that. Sometimes I'm like, 90 days from now, like, wow, a lot can happen. [laughter] It does. That is a funny observation, but you're right.
expiration dates as well, or like, you know, I'll be thinking, oh, I want to I year, and I'm like, wait, the end of the year is only 150 days. like you know you that. You know you think these things are far away but definitely does uh help
help contextualize sometimes. What's going on everybody in chat? EM Media big deal guys. Christopher nice boy. Good to see all of you. Gus, you lose money and time. Yes. [laughter] Yes to both. I did not did not farewell on the tables this
done done pretty well in that regard, but just could not get anything going because lowkey bragging about that code. Lol. I'm not even sure I'm going to use a code. I've I've never I've never been one to be super interested in betas. I I
Perhaps get entertained doing a doing >> he's going to raffle that. with with that for our for our loyal viewers. Um Reggie, good to see you as well. Bought Google Gap fill at 34775. Love gaps. I see buyers stepping in.
We'll get out tomorrow before earnings. Beautiful. Reggie. Yes, I also am a gap enjoyer in a stock market context. You guys get your mind out of the gutter. Um but yeah, no, I I like uh I I love gap fills. I love overreactions and I I
trading the other side of overreactions and gap fills usually just serve as an example of an overreaction in in the market. So yeah, sounds like you you found a great trade on Google. Uh what what do we say or is this goggating
Which one are we doing today? >> GG is what I've always always gone to myself. Um but anyway, [clears throat] yes, that's a that's a nice nice trade peek at the volatility index. We're sitting at 1719 right now. So again,
it's not too low, but we have a little bit of a bid, you know, level of it's been lately. So I mean, we'll take a 1720. We've seen a little bit worse >> you guys are making me laugh in the chat. Big Omaha, bro, you are using that
code. [laughter] >> Yeah, I mean I I I suppose I'm forced to saying, yeah, it could could be something fun to give away. I I'm not interested, but I know it could be better used on somebody else who's much
better used on somebody else who's much more excited than me. Um, [laughter] You must love it when Trump opens his mouth. I do. I do. In fact, th those we're generally talking about a broader
Arrol and I have discussed at length before, it's it's hard to determine Because to make that determination requires you to decide whether you are trusting the news that is emerging and as has made itself very clear over the
as has made itself very clear over the past really year now uh news is a fickle thing an everchanging and and tough to figure out thing you know I mean you can go all the way back to liberation day which is now 16 17 months ago uh in 2025
and it was like this this this huge selloff the sky is falling the market's going to crash and then the news changes but that's the thing is as Trump starts rolling back all those tariffs. Had all of a sudden there been a story the next
things would have gone back down. And we did see some of that happening, you out of liberation day. But, uh, that's just one example of the broader been seeing, you know, uh, perpetuated perhaps more than anywhere else with
this Iran situation, which is just that the news changes all the time. is hard to determine what to trust, what to believe, what's actually going to stick because things are only an overreaction if the news isn't actually all that it's
that it's, you know, made out to be. Or perhaps the news is still all that it's made out to be. And it is even an overreaction to the truth. But then it's the news and as far as as far as Trump speaking goes. Those are hard trades to
make. I like when Trump says, "Buy this and then you buy it and then it goes back on that strategy [laughter] next time he drops a ticker in the tweet. I'm one. We'll let you guys know how that one goes, but 100%. You got any thoughts
weekend? >> No, I've seen like memes about it. I didn't even go into the details just cuz it was just fine all over all over social media and sometimes I just get a headache deciphering uh the legitimacy
of just certain posts in certain takes. But I haven't really heard uh too many about like the Trump subscription. is going to be uh releasing. If you going to be first to hear about uh certain info that's getting released. Um
going to be hedge funds, a lot of big money in the market that might subscribe >> I think it's going to be interesting. It's going to be interesting to see how market, I guess you could say. It almost sounds like a new Bloomberg. I was going
>> Yeah. Uh in in a way, but anyways, we'll circle back around to that whenever we >> It is very interesting. Who's who's got a company card I can use so we can get ourselves a Trump subscription. >> Um uh so CL is an overreaction right
oil. Let's uh let's do that. >> We should That's not a bad idea. Imagine drum subscription. >> Like not. >> I mean,
>> That would be interesting regards how we feel about this. I feel like a lot of intriguing. Anyways, we'll we'll take a quick look at oil. I mean, are people are we are people allowed to you hook an API up to these
>> I don't know exactly how it works. I don't know any details about it, but I did see it that thing going on a rave this weekend. Uh anything to do would the this is an off air conversation. What would the what would
wanted to get this and then make it available to Tasty Live viewers like on could we legally do that? Well, >> that's a really good question. >> that's a [laughter] great question. I genuinely that's a that's a great
I'm just thinking out loud. I have no idea if we can make that happen or not. Um [laughter] QQQ did the same gap fill yesterday as has best odds. I did play a little bit of roulette. Uh the only bet in the
odds bet and craps. I would float that. Any any sharp gambler would tell you odds. You're talking about the best odds. Uh roulette is fun. Did okay never could never really string string anything together. Y um TK might say the
>> Yeah. Um >> head and shoulders up there. I don't don't do a lot of the patterns myself. Uh also CL I I I think that CL perhaps
more so than any market right any any commodity any product in the market right now uh is affected the least by technicals just because it is such a such a news-driven thing. uh technicals generally are something that you use to
to gauge market sentiment to gauge you know uh it's it's it's tra trading psychology expressed through fundamentals is kind of how patterns wind up working out uh and psychology obviously still matters with CL but I
much people are are trusting the headlines how much people believe that we're actually nearing a resolution all of those things that uh may not actually be best exemplified by by patterns or or or by technicals it's just when the more
the less that technicals matter. To me, it's it's like sliders. And if something a headline happen in six months, those are going to be the most attractive technicals to me. Uh even though the PR same principles absolutely can hold up
with with a product like oil. But anyway, with the end of that soap box, um yeah, I still am just I don't want to touch this thing. I I've been I've been so scared of oil. I already have on the the losing shorts that I tried to get on
beginning. Uh, you know, we've we've begun to run back the other way now. Um, yeah, it's just this is scary. You you I was going to say you couldn't pay me to than the than the cost basis of my trade. I got to I got to make a profit
>> Yeah. These levels. >> No, oil oil, man. Oil is a wild one. Uh, that we've seen is just kind of just blows your mind a little bit here. Uh, my sentiment on oil has kind of shifted. I think later on we're going to see a
my viewpoint on oil with the top being in is a little bit different from like something like silver or uh gold or any of those other underlyings that we'd the beginning of the year. It doesn't
same category. The way things are working out, the way things could crunch into the future, I think I think we we oil the oil products get squeezed a of like like the points that you made and the points that I see in the chat.
oil really is like a barometer for news and and just the overall sentiment and it's very headline driven and it's very uh affected by any geopolitical events comes down to the tech technicals so difficult to trade sometimes. Yeah,
it's a it's a news barometer as Christopher puts it in chat. Um I want to get short on CL. I've got like 60% of my buying market. I am right there with you Christopher. I I uh let's see. I have I
think maybe north of that. Yeah. [snorts] Oh, yeah. I'm I'm about 70% of my buying power is is in cash right now. Um and yeah, I agree. I mean, I just I just keep finding reasons to talk myself out of out of all the trades. It's like,
you know, I I you know, I've I've I've tested the waters in the AI space, the sectors, and I just can't really find anything. And my portfolio right now is actually defined by more boring trades outside of, you know, the the the
trendiest newsiest names right now. Uh, as it pertains to a short in CL contrarian. I think we're I think we're we've discussed, you know, the most contrarian thing you could possibly do
with the directional environment that we're in with this product. Um, but, you know, short I definitely think is is a contrarian angle. I I could certainly mean, it's it's like, you know, talking in CL prices here. If if if somebody
came to me and said, "Hey, I'm I'm from August of 2026. I'm from a month in the highs." I'm not surprised by that at all either. I would say, "Oh, yeah. Well, the current environment." So, just feels like too crazy of a train to step in
these things where you don't you don't ever have to force a trade on something just because it's it's the hot topic just because it's, you know, what's what with through the news cycle. Uh if there's not an attractive spot, there's
what it is. Um nobody ever went broke holding cash as I like to say all the have more of your capital deployed, but uh you want to make sure you don't force uh you want to make sure you don't force any of those any of those spots. Um the
Oh, wait. Sam, what's up from the fields today, fellas? May your P&L still be fields today. That is hitting the barn hitting the bean fields next week. Love even in the equation for you. Although, I suppose I did know you were in Iowa,
so I The odds were pretty good. Um, yeah, corn. We got these corn futures. Let us know what's going on over there in the >> I was going to say I am still I am still long corn right now and it's uh it's
going really well. Um, actually has become I'm I'm so far out of the money on on a vertical, which is good. I'm so far in a just corn. >> Yeah, I'm I'm so far out of the money in a good way that there's actually no
chilling at max profit on corn right now, waiting uh waiting another 31 days for these to find expiration. But did uh did do a good job of of catching the bottom without really any TA. And if I had known that Jared was our resident
>> Yeah, Jared. Jared keeping it under wraps. You got to share the love. >> Ryan saying wheat is also a war disruption trade. What's that? ZWCW. disruption trade. What's that? ZWCW. See what we got here. ZW. I've never
the forward slash. Oh, whoops. >> Yeah. Yeah. CW. Yeah, there you go. before, but it's got a lot of volatility. Looks like it's pretty >> Yeah. Wheat is uh is running up actually. Not a
dissimilar to USO, actually. It's it's this is this has moved pretty pretty tightly with with oil. Obviously, it's uh retested the highs. oil has yet to do that. But, uh, similar similar situation happening with with the the highs coming
then and then a dip and then returning to the highs right now. So, uh, yeah, there, Ryan, that uh, the wheat is also a war disruption trade. Yeah, right. that Arrol is looking where the large amount of volume is in CL. Notice prices
point of control. Yes, that's those those are Errol's favorite words. Agent Purr, feels good here. Probably nearing a top here soon in corn. Thank you, Agent Purr. Much appreciated. Yeah, I will. I'm going to look to the second
that I can get 1 cent of liquidity on on my 16 strike on corn and get out of this for a 95% profit instead of 100, I will do. So, uh there's just no no liquidity at that 16 put strike right now. Obviously, this is not a volatile
product. 16 in in the next 31 days would be an insane move. We'd have to have a blight or something. >> Oh, yeah. I think I'm no corn expert. >> We got a lot of fun products though. A lot of a lot of these other commodities
seem to be really solid trading vehicles. Uh especially something like off guard. I mean, even corn. Uh so these things are moving. These provide a a little bit more love a little bit more often. A little bit more love a little
bit more often. Uh with that being said, quickly check out seeing what the market a little bit boring. Haven't taken any scalps on the Tasty account at least today or yesterday so far. Uh a little bit of a recap. If anybody's been
checking out NASDAQ, we did sweep these uh prominent swing lows that we had put interesting to see. It's nice to see. And again, if we quickly go over to the S&P 500, you can kind of see the lack of volatility that we experience on ES, you
which is interesting again, right? We're seeing NASDAQ clear uh prominent swing lows from about a month or two ago, and ES still comfortably trading within that for the market? I don't know. But there is a little bit of a divergence between
both of those assets that are typically highly correlated. So it's kind of potentially get next, I guess you could say. And it's funny every time uh even this morning Mike and Jamal quoting E- Min's like, "Oh, Ein's down on the day."
story on NASDAQ today. I've been feel like I just got thrown uh in the blender Everything's always calm over here on the S&P 500." Uh but no, with that being said, ES really uh not too far away from its highs, trading at about 7542 right
its highs, trading at about 7542 right now. uh high sitting at 70 76.91 on ES. waiting for the pin to drop. Like something's still got to happen. I know range, kind of trading inside that consolidated range all summer. Uh but
we're trading right back inside there. So, we're still waiting for the the >> Yeah, I'm like I've been saying everybody, it feels right now like the me, the word of the year is actually
consolidation. I I think I I think that we are just in into a into a similar holding pattern which could potentially last us months. Uh like what we saw, you know, at the at the end of end of 2026 and into or sorry, the end of 2025 and
into 2026. Um where yeah, S&P just had this basically 6 months of consolidation there were some stories here and there. The metals popped and you know, all we could just never burst through that ceiling on on SPX or NASDAQ. And it
feels like we're in a very similar spot right now. Uh I am I actually am going to go ahead and and and get a trade on expressing this sentiment. Uh gonna take me a little while but gonna do an iron condor here and try to uh you know just
just express this neutrality. Um trying to find the right balance of of time know while while we have been consolidating the range is large. I mean consolidating the range is large. I mean 7200 to 60 or sorry 7200 to 7600 is is
encompass that entire range in an iron condor without doing a ton of buying power. So, uh, trying, uh, trying to find my preferred angle of attack here. >> I hear you. See, excuse me. Seeing the sell off. Oh, volatility is pretty
something in there. >> Yeah. I mean, I just need it to be like I just want like a month, but I also want a fairly large range. >> Yeah. SPX. SPX. >> SPX. SPX.
>> Um, could I get like what happens if I go could I get like what happens if I go $200 wide uh a month out? Cuz but even
could stay within this range and still could stay within this range and still move more than $200 wide. We could maybe what are you feeling? Iron Condor. Strangle.
don't I don't have the facilities for a strangle in SPX. Let's >> see what we got here. Uh 7475. Let's just let's see what the Yeah, I mean this really isn't that bad. Yeah, I'm on the 31day uh the PM. There
is an AM settled on August 21st also, >> which is worth noting. >> Um but I mean this [clears throat] is pretty attractive to me. I can go 73.95 pretty attractive to me. I can go 73.95 7,400 on the bottom, 7,600 7605 on the
7,400 on the bottom, 7,600 7605 on the top. Uh mid price is 360 of credit for 130 in buying power. And again, I mean, I understand that this is a a dangerous game that I'm that I'm playing here. Expected move. Is this
right? Yeah. All one standard deviation all the way out to 78.880. So, there is there is a lot more range than I'm than I'm giving credit for here uh with with mean, I just don't hate this. I feel like for the risk profile I'm getting
we're in. How does this look on the chart? 7,400 is >> 74. >> Yeah. >> uh call side 76 >> call side 76 put side 74
>> 74 flat. >> Yeah. And then the long one is 74 9 or >> See there we go. >> Yeah. Yeah. That's this is well this yes setup that I'm looking at here at least. Um but yeah I think I am going to go
mean looking at the charts like this this feels like a like a fine range to me going going this wide. So yeah let's uh let's express this neutral sentiment. Let's Let's put some put some money where my mouth is. See if we can't can't
get a fill on this one. Iron condors are are tricky fills sometimes due to the >> It can be. You got some extra legs. >> Yeah, a lot of lot of contracts in the >> Okay, there we go. Got the fill at 360. So, I will uh I'll get this published in
expressing some neutral sentiment here. It really just the broader market just is screaming consolidation at me. And I I I made note of this the entire time it but never acted on it. And I was frustrated because it was at about this
notice this phenomenon and it lasted three more months and I just kept myself out of it here. Yes. Very well displayed on on the chart here. Uh you Like 72. >> Yeah, about 72 7240.
uncertainty is what it took to get us down to 72 and then obviously that came >> volatility barely spiked which was sus. like you're telling me we sold off this much and the fear in the market is only calculating a x whatever it was on
>> so we keep an eye on it >> when you're Boba saying when you're are you looking for slash at help I think uh I mean in in this context
>> yeah you're kind of just playing with it right to see what you're comfortable >> yeah more more broadly the things that I'll actually go to the options chain for uh are those one standard deviation moves the the expected moves which are
which nicely noted uh with with the dash line down at 7880 on this one. You're yeah, you yeah, that's a good good example there as well. Um so yeah, expected move uh IVX if that's something that you care about. I I'm I'm more of
an IVR guy myself. Um and then just yeah, liquidity volume obviously if guy like Errol, you know, looking at looking at where the volume is at on on like for instance just right now at a glance I can see call volume uh 31 days
from now on in S&P is particularly elevated at 7650 and 7675 as well as 7700 you expect that at those you know more more natural interview intervals options volume around those levels um and then yeah I mean as we go higher
7760 also a strangely heavy strike and 7770 so yeah just good good expressions what do you look at on the chain >> uh I I would say uh pretty much everything you pretty much touched on um looking at all the variables, but also
it's always nice to see the the little pop-up window down here at the bottom extrinsic value, the P50, the delta, the theta, and then whenever we adjust these have on, it kind of just gives you a good idea of where you're at, buying
>> Yeah, this trade execution screen is wonderful. Yes, exactly. Tell us the you're getting out of the trade. That's how I'm always scaling my my risk float as well, and I know Mike likes to do this a lot, uh, is look at the, you
option pricing themselves. If you Oh, I love I think it works on here. If you >> if you right click on any strike and yeah, view option and chart, >> you can do this. Uh, now let me be very clear. If you ever see anybody on social
media or elsewhere telling you to apply technical analysis to the chart of options price like this, they are full of it. Do do not listen. It it does not really translate that way that well. the principles can hold up. There are
out, but it's generally more happen stance when you're talking about these options prices. What these options price charts are useful for is trying to figure out where an option was when the stock was at a previous level without,
you know, actually doing all of the math. A common application and something show before and and a way that I've used this is like with UNH, you can look at say the 600 strike calls on UNH, which used to be a $600 stock, and say, "Wow,
these were 20x higher and the stock has only fallen 50%. So there's probably going to be disproportionate upside in play should the stock return to $600, expect them to to return to similar levels." So there's absolutely angles
that you can take there as well. >> Yeah. No, 100%. Are you looking Are you looking just for greater Are you looking just for higher volume? >> Oh, are you looking just for higher volume greater than OI?
throwing me off there. Um, no technicals and options prices. Yes. And yeah, and like I said, you can find examples where technicals appear to hold up. Um, but I would never be like, "Oh, look at this. Look at this cup and handle on the on
Look at this cup and handle on the on the S&P 7700 strike calls on on August 31st. It's like that that that starts to be a little bit frivolous to me. utilizing the the the options contracts and being able to view the price
themselves. Uh I think it's one of the best ways to actually be able to gauge the risk-to-reward whenever you're trading a lot of the zero DTE. Uh so if here, you'll probably see a little bit more volume in these contracts. Um, so
intraday trading these DDTs, let's just say you're buying a call or you're just buying a put. Um, nothing too complicated. Uh, right, you can you can to set if I wanted to buy this contract at 770, um, and I believe well if we get
I I only want to risk let's say.7 on this. I can put a stop loss on that individual contract as $7. And sometimes it's kind of nice to uh have an idea of whenever you're trading like a lot of the zero DTE directionally. So whether
low, being able to be like, "Okay, that's about 15 cents a risk. I don't have to I don't have to risk the entire value of the options contract to see whatever to see my trade thesis play out, whatever it might be." But, uh,
you can then kind of just drag it drag it and drop it to on the options regular chart that we typically trade on, which can be really helpful to to at least visualize that risk profile for directional trading at the same time.
>> Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. all kinds of uh wonderful niche things we we have to offer in in the platform here for all these different applications. Um and right on the head in the chat. Uh if deciding which strike, always make sure
will be high or the intraday trade will be thin, which probably means the open myself. Thank you, Frankie. I was going to point out uh the 7,400 that you were looking at on S&P has the highest open interest um
the surrounding contracts that we have too, which is really interesting because it's it's it's standing out like a sore thumb that 7,400 contract. So, very very made, >> well, yeah, that's the put size that
comfortable in the position. Admittedly, that was not something that I just on, but yeah, if you have if you have that open interest, if you have the high volume to those strikes, it means you would likely [snorts] see some exits
puts at those strikes, which could potentially act as a as another support broader calculus with everything else, but just another another factor to have there's a lot of market participants interested, right? Not saying
has to sell off here, but market participants are interested within this >> Yes. Exactly. Um, option price charts are better if you use line charts. Yes, astute. Ant said just clicked like. Thank you, Ant. We appreciate you.
like. Helps us out a ton with the algorithm and cost you nothing. We we 15 more minutes as well. We didn't we didn't mention that at the beginning, we're we're not not rolling at our at our usual time. Um, but yeah, I mean
beyond uh yeah, beyond everything we've discussed here, like like I said, Beyond >> what's that? What are they at? 60 Cents. >> Let's see what they've been up to. Uh, hamme. This is why just don't >> Exactly. Right. How about that?
>> Totally just pulled. >> Oh, totally just my butt. Last I saw figured they had slipped. >> That's hilarious. This is why you just don't fall for [laughter] the prop like I mean the SpaceX IPO. I mean, beyond
out, I think it was like 2020, 2021, this thing was popping, and everybody was talking about this is going to be the next whatever, and it's just like, you see how the hype of a lot of these underlyings end up playing out. I, you
different than Beyond Meat. I will I will I will put that out there. Uh, but in terms of, you know, hype when it comes to trading and investing, a lot of times it's like smoke and mirrors. >> Yeah. Yeah. Beyond Meat uh peaked at
over $85, by the way, >> it was the most popular traded stock. >> this was like uh at the same time Nicola was popping, which Beyond Meat never like they actually had burgers when they didn't, but they just those those stocks
in my brain. And Nicola is another great example of of seriously why you can't what you what you see. However, shout out Nicola for at least and obviously
the resources weren't available at this time, but at least they really went out there and rolled a truck down a hill, you know? At least they actually did. a video of your truck driving down a hill, but Nicola, they towed that thing
That's peak dedication to misleading your shareholders. I I must respect it. part, but the dedication. [laughter] I respect the dedication that is needed. >> No, that's crazy. I forgot about that slight detail. But yeah, no, beyond me
cent stock. I believe like 80 90 some percent of stocks, penny stocks end up that's gonna happen to be on me, but that's just what the statistics tell us. >> I would be very interested as well because I bet that this is even and
situation, but I bet the rate of bankruptcy is even much higher for become penny >> stock. And if you're selling fake meat, >> stock. And if you're selling fake meat, [laughter]
chains. It feels like it feels like if you It feels like if you have a product a food product that is in every Burger King in the nation that surely your cents. It feels like that's all you should need to push your share price
for the kind words. Of course, we're here to help. It's it's it's what we're It can definitely all be very overwhelming sometimes. Options are a it's why we're uh it's why we're here in the first place. We we were all once
remember before I got into options just seeing a chart and buying and stuff that >> Yes. >> You know. first parts >> first just when you think back to the to
>> Yeah. And and it's like it's like Yeah. Even just even just the levels like at like you got to learn long versus short, then you got to learn call versus put, short put. And it's like just just those things can be can be easy to to confuse.
people around the office sometimes I have to sit there and process for 5 position they're talking about. Um >> yeah, all good Bob. I'm overwhelmed too >> Ryan, thank you for the kind words also and thank you for the like, brother. We
peek at some semis. Strange. >> Some semis. We got SMH. >> Yeah, SMH. Good starting point. Uh AMD, maybe more specifically is what but I'm actually considering a
rangebound trade at AMD. Higher IVR at 96.3. Been stuck between 500 and 580. company. IMO. >> I can't stand it. I [laughter] can't >> Yes. Just briefly before we get into the semis. I agree. Not not a good name. Not
forgot. No. Oh, I see. He went back on it. Oh, man. Earning season. I forgot. exactly the first thing that was going to come out of my mouth here. Uh being oil, the most contrarian thing you could possibly do in the semis right now would
directional. Um it is it is certainly earning season >> the way that these you know similar sector companies all just move with one another is so challenging to keep up
with it's like all of them have five earnings calls like AMD you know AMD is just obviously just worried about themselves but when when when Nvidia report earnings you know all these other adjacent companies when they report
earnings AMD just moves like it's AMD's earnings call too uh so it going to be very difficult to keep up with. AMDIC reports August 4th. So, you have you do have two weeks before that happens, but as you said, uh you're, you know, you're
going to see all these other semis start going TSM making headlines today, propping the whole space up. AMD up 6% today, actually, logging a very good dangerous environment for neutrality in the semis. However, it's also the most
you mentioned, the the elevated IVR, which is which is due to the earnings premium if you're if you if you got the cojones to to step in front of them. cojones to to step in front of them. >> 100%. I if fake meat wasn't loaded with
It's It's true. It's true. >> You know what? I feel like I caught a stray with that one because I do like I do like regular >> Oh, no. You're saying the fake meat the fake meat is so is so pumped full of
>> Oh, it's pumped. It is pumped full of chemicals. Oh. Oh, I got you. Cuz it's like I eat I eat stuff every day that's pumped full of chemicals that tastes going to be like, "Bro, give me my GMOs. [laughter] My GMOs back, man."
>> No. Yeah. I'm I'm a god-fearing American and I eat ultrarocessed crap for every meal of the day. I love Red 40. I love GMOs. You can't take them from me Damn it. Come and take it. Come and take my GMOs. You can't.
>> Oh my goodness. A $500 stock with an IV of 83%. Holy crap. Yes. Oh my gosh. And what we're seeing in the entire semispace. And I mean and and who can who can blame him for the 70% or the 80% IV. I mean 80% of 500 $400 obviously
which would put him at $100. Guess how long ago AMD was at $100. It's like not a year. I mean I guess it is a little over a year. AMD was last $100 stock in May of last year. So we're just barely over a year since AMD was $100. Uh more
over a year since AMD was $100. Uh more recently we were at $200 on April 7th. So in in three months we've seen this you know uh north now of of 100% move nearing three nearing 300% move that we've seen to the upside in AMD. So you
know the the IV is is justified as as scary as it is. The market is just saying hey this could go back to 200 and that's and that's you know perhaps not that unfair or it could go up to whatever uh 900 on
>> the point you made. I mean we were trading at 463 days ago. 463 days ago extremely volatile names. >> Prop trader, I like the stream just for [laughter] an American. Thank you, Prop Trader. We're in this together. Um, when
lettuce, does that mean it's time to buy puts on lettuce companies? Uh, well, if publicly tradable company that really was just a lettuce company. The short
answer is yes, but you would have to be incredibly quick with your with your reaction. the market will react in seconds to to price in available and all all the people with the big money, the market makers, if you will,
quickly move prices in reaction to news like that and they're going to be to the news faster than us. Um so it would for a for a good news trade where you're trying to get out ahead of the news, it would need to be something like uh
that or you think that the situation is going to continue getting worse with information in the future that's worse than we have now. Or you could do if there's a problem with lettuce, maybe there's a problem with cabbage," which
shift over to a cabbage company in this example and try to get out ahead of the trying to trade immediately after the news comes out is is something we would generally say is not not the wisest choice. Buy the rumor, sell the news is
is what people always say. >> Bad day to be a vegan. [laughter] >> Bad week to be a vegan for sure. >> You're playing roulette. >> Did we Did we ever get confirmation that it was Taco Bell? I know everybody
away, but I don't think they [laughter] >> Bro, that Taco Bell guilty of anything. >> Just like a perfect encapsulation of human behavior. It's like just the first one to point to it. Reminds me of TMZ. Just the first one. [laughter] Get the
right or wrong. Just get the news out. It was Taco Bell. And then run with it. >> Yeah. TMZ will will cash you out if you got if [laughter] you got a video of something. They they want it quick. >> Um No. When are we going to do a fake
good point. That's a good point. Why don't we have meat? Why don't we have >> We [laughter] have brought up and I hate that you verbalized it out loud. Now I got that
>> Beef carrot. >> That [laughter] sounds terrible. >> We're getting a little bit of a recovery on some of these memory names. Got a We put uh we sold an out of the money put spread yesterday. $5 wide. It
expires in about 31 days. I don't think memory names are going to continue to go wrong. I would I would love for the range to increase, but it does kind of change of character here. So, we're going to try and get on a little bit of
a little bit more of a bid over the cross of this week, uh we're going to look to take off this micron position because then we want to try and get on kind of talking about, you know, the front side and back side of the move
whenever we believe the top might be in. And this left side is what we consider side is what we consider the back side of the move. So considering that the top let's let's allow the market to prove us wrong. But if if the top is in, you
long some of the bounces on the back side of the move because it does feel they can be a little bit more shortlived rather than or opposed to if they were where we were kind of continuously putting in highs. So, maybe we can kind
and SanDisk, but those names have been super volatile even though we're not You know, a lot of lot of volatility to the names. A lot of lot of opportunity for an active trader. Uh, regardless of the side of the market you're trading
>> Yeah. I hope everybody got long sandisk when I got out. [laughter] >> Is that the >> It's It's so comical. Yes. I was I was just saying uh that was that was on the 16th. Um, which was what Thursday?
be back to maybe we were back to the low. It It feels like um this is where This is where it starts to feel like musical chairs, especially being on the we're getting this pop, >> but it's like how long is is that going
technically on a downtrend if we look at the higher time frame. And if the top was put in and this was such a momentum move. I really don't believe this. I I do matter, but a lot of this move to the upside in such a short amount of time
was feels like it was really based off of a lot of momentum and it feels like a overexaggerated because we were running on hype. years from now, 20 years from now, just in the short term, but anyways, with
down to the lows fairly quickly. Uh but it does seem that >> we'll see. But it seems the seems the Gust inverse Sandis ETF. last 24 48 hours. >> Yes, precisely. But, uh, yeah, I know
that's going to be about all the, uh, all the time we have. Stay tuned. else top of mind for me. >> Cool, cool, cool. Uh, well, brother, thanks for taking the time to hang out with us today. Uh, Rancher, Big Deal,
Jared, Prop, everybody else. Uh, be sure to be sure to stay tuned for more the trades from the research team coming on soon. And we'll catch you guys here on soon. And we'll catch you guys here in a little bit. Peace.
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every second that I work. And if I don't clear 145,000 by the end of the day, I'm >> Okay. [laughter] >> It's a cute dress. Where'd you get it? >> Oh, thank you. H&M. >> $23. 10% off sale.
more than $4. No, that's too bad. Got to be aware of these things. Everything has >> Well, not everything has value. >> Everything has value. >> Go ahead. Go for it. >> Okay. U caution.
>> Feebleness. >> That's a sad one. $12. >> All right. >> What about us? >> Yeah. >> Two cents. [snorts] We should have sold
>> Yeah. Yeah, we could have made a lot of money on that one. Oops. [laughter] street. >> Exactly. I think that's more on you than
it is on me. >> Lord knows I'm trying. Hey, you know at you. You're a young buck. What are you like 37? I'm joking. [laughter] How old are you?
>> With your genetic makeup, you know, you're not putting on too much weight. I eggs of yours and make quite a profit online, but I wouldn't wait too long. time, especially if they keep eating the way you're eating.
>> Are you serious? >> Yeah. Hey, look. Can you get the check on this? I left my wallet in the car. I don't like to carry around bulky things. don't like to carry around bulky things. It slows me down.
When you are assigned, you are ultimately short an option that's in the money and the counterparty has the ability to exercise that option. So, if you are assigned, it means your option against your will ultimately has turned
into 100 shares of long or short stock. >> What does a green scratch mean? Oo, a green scratch [music] refers to stubbornness getting the best of you. And when I say you, I mean me. Uh, green scratch refers to rolling a position,
defending a position, and instead of just closing it for less than a loss that you're seeing, or maybe a $100 loss, $50 loss. A green scratch is when you close it for maybe a 5-cent winner, 10-cent winner, 15cent winner. Just the
ability to see that green number on your screen and get out in a profitable way screen and get out in a profitable way as opposed to a loss.
for you. We got trades from the research team. We got a few amazing trades coming perspective on that. Today we got our brother Sahil. Sahil, what's going on going with you? >> Pretty good. Um, lot of volatility into
the market. Uh, SpaceX has been a little bit disappointing since IPO. You got any >> I mean I mean it's been disappointing. I don't know what else to say about it. pretty well. SpaceX has not. >> Maybe due to Elon overpromising under
been eroding the trust. >> There was so much hype. I I have ever happened. We did some research on that and like on one of our segments after an IPO are not good for >> really, you know, so
>> I I did peep how there was about $320 million of retail investors >> that poured into the SpaceX IPO um one of the largest >> I was technically I mean if you want to count if you want to count the out of
>> Oh, you didn't mess with the IPOs. You're not an IPO trader. >> I'm not just because not that I don't think it can work out. I just don't have know what I'm I don't really >> That's a case of no experience, but I'm
>> Uh, you know what? You're right. You're right. I I got you. I got you. Um, the spy volume that's been happening? SPX, SPY volume. honestly, I think SpaceX the the right way to go about it was just to scalp the
>> should have, could have, would have. That's hindsight. >> We got some Oracle action. >> Oracle. I like It's going to be a little because we usually do trades from the research team before market open. So, we
uh we don't have to mess with the market that's already been happening and then how the pre-market's been doing. Should we be putting on the trade as a bullish or up from the previous day? >> Now, we're doing trades from the
happening. So, we have to adjust based off the volatility, the volume, the don't want to maybe you don't want to put in the trade now, maybe you want to >> So, we'll see what's happening. Also, the other difficulty is with all the
earnings that are coming up. So, people who don't want to mess with earnings too much, usually with earnings, people like to do ratio spreads and stuff like that. earnings trades if you want to go super shortterm. But for our standard trades,
take away all the earnings, and there's not too many interesting high high name up with. But Oracle is one of them that actually has earnings pretty later in September. Uh so we just got a standard short put at the 100 strike
>> right here 18 delta and it's actually pretty good credit to BPR ratio on just a naked short put you're getting $410 a credit which a little wild if you think So >> a,000 bucks for the buying power that
>> $125 stock. >> Yeah. $125 $1,000 worth of buying power >> Just selling the naked put. You would think you would think the buying power >> See, for the smaller accounts, for the seller smaller accounts, we like to go
>> but anytime I can get undefined risk, get that little bit more extra extra oomph into the trade, you know, it's a little bit hard for uh for stocks that >> for you, whenever you sell a naked put or a vertical spread, how do you how do
>> Is there a difference or are you kind of just like, ah, it's just another trade >> Well, as I've gotten more used to trading and getting we're getting a notice too much of a difference. Yeah. But there's always that little twinge of
stocks like what what if it just goes to zero somehow beyond me >> in all honesty you know like because the your max loss is going to be pretty much you know with undefined risk you don't
errand okay like [laughter] >> I think we worry a little bit too much scenario and yeah >> it's just how we are as humans you know intrusive thoughts like it's like that that's never going to happen you're
>> got to worry that >> I think people get burned on defined they're expecting it to be a little bit safer play and then but there's a lot more to manage there's a lot more to see because you have the uh long u you know
long strike price okay so >> no I like it I mean as we look at or $12544 right now it's been absolutely crushed right now are they getting drugged down with
AI >> that's why Oracle is getting criticized do you think AI's had such a negative sentiment? I I was listening to some of the validictorian speeches, right, at the end of the about in May and at a lot
they're booing everybody. They're booing them and it's just like you guys dissertations and a lot of your assignments utilizing AI. I'm just maybe >> Okay. No, no, no. Okay. Okay.
>> No, it's the valictorian. They're going to I think they're they're smart enough >> Yeah. >> So, you see what I'm saying though? I with hiring it, hiding it because people
want to feel like good people, but at the same time they end up using it in those things where it's coming whether or not you whether you like it or not >> you have very pro AI sentiment. >> No, no, no, no. [laughter] This guy, you
got to check his work. >> No, that's funny. Um, but with that out that oral uh that oracle trade. I don't see too many trades where the buying power is sufficient for my account type to not have to use a
>> Not many people trade with only $200, my man. [laughter] second on the board for you? We got Oracle number one. >> Let's go with some ETFs over here. Energy.
>> Yeah. So, what are we our opinions on energy, gold, oil, all these things that are happening. So, I know we were talking about oil just before with Gus headline driven it is and how much uncertainty there is, especially
whenever there is ongoing geopolitical events. Um, whatever Trump might want to type of assets are so affected by headlines rather than rather than it's extremely fundamental driven or the perception of the fundamentals, I guess
you could say. So, energy is always always it's always a beast in its own regard. >> Um, I guess you could do strangle. Okay, so another naked strategy going two for two naked strategies on here. Another
$750 uh dollar in buying power. It's trading sort of in the middle of its do obviously the strangles and the iron condors when when it's trading around recent low, right? >> So I think that just kind of makes the
strategy, you don't really know what direction uh it's going to be moving in. Uh I feel like that's the best time to do it. And yeah, so just to try to get I'm pretty much into oil a lot. You'll be seeing that in the in the third
stocks. So just try to do something a little bit more different. You know, energy and gold are kind of a little bit more safe haven kind of stocks even >> behaving wildly right now in this market. But we'll see how strangle in
is behaving wildly right now. And to the point that you're making right now, uh bringing up energy, I know we've seen we've seen a little bit of a reversal or into this oil market. Have you have you >> seen that at all? I'm sure that's
But uh it it seems like the sentiment could just shift didn't even consolidate whenever we started trading at around 70 on oil. We continue to put in new lows
reverse and we start putting in highs. It's just like no consolidation. It's of a finger sometimes. >> Yeah. I don't know. [laughter] >> Yeah. No, it definitely can be. But I like the I like the stringle on XLA. It
too, depending on what it does. And it's a cheaper underlying 700 just over $700. have been the Europeans who have been coming over. Okay, Americans always here. If [laughter] you do the liter to gallon conversion, you compare the uh
liter prices in Europe to the gallon prices over here. They uh the ones in twice as expensive really something like that. So, but they help they obviously networks that they like to use. >> That's true. They got higher taxes, too,
>> Oh, of course. [laughter] Mr. Just kidding. one, XLE number two. >> Get into that mess. [laughter] >> Next question. Um, what do we got for the third one? What are you feeling?
into double whammy. >> So, the reason I bought this up is uh XLE. If you want to trade a little bit more diversified as aspect of energy cuz into it. It has all the other energy stocks as well. But if you really want
kind of choose what ETF you want to go into. You want to go into XLE? You want to go into USO? If you're going into USO though, I suggest doing the full whammy covered call. This is an interesting one because a it's hard to borrow. So, just
be a little bit careful uh for the hard to borrow people out there. Um to avoid those types of stocks because they don't want [clears throat] to be assigned early and stuff. Yeah. But uh this is a debit um trade because it's a
poor man's covered call. uh the way USO has been going obviously been extremely volatile and stuff but >> because our governments are making uh
is happening the war is not happening oil prices are coming down oil prices down left right center okay >> right now it's on a little bit of its lower end it's actually been trending downwards a little bit and then has
slowly started been picking back up uh I think since the first week of July it's its most recent times it's been slowly tricking back up. Okay, I don't think this is the end of oil or like or the end of oil going up and up and up or
It's going to keep us going up. Okay, >> I'm I'm literally we're both in that going to run into a little bit of an energy crisis. Whatever. Blah blah blah You know, it's >> people people like to throw around the
things that are not actually crisis. >> It's fun. It's fun to speculate on, over for oil. Why don't we why don't we get on that bandwagon a little bit and covered call action. You want to not only you want to hold the underlying and
to sell the call over there. >> I like to make a little bit extra on the >> Get creative with it in the flexibility with options. be bullish right now and USO. I don't know if this is an popular opinion in
>> tasty trade. But >> I I I actually wouldn't mind getting on would want to wait for a little bit of a pullback just because it's had so much momentum over the last few days. But like overall, same sentiment. I I like
>> You know, I see what happens. >> It's tough. It's tough to pull the trigger sometimes into the into the strength. But um with that being said, Oracle, >> we got XLE, and then we got USO.
>> No, I I love it. It's funny. We got ahead of ourselves a little bit with USO on the third one. That's okay. >> All right, cool. Uh but with that being going to check these stocks out, see how these trades work out as time passes.
going to go to a quick break. Be sure to stay tuned. We have more trade ideas So be be sure to stay tuned for that. And we'll catch you guys here in a And we'll catch you guys here in a little bit.
from this morning. Bodacia, our raid really distracted me. I was like, "Get away from me, uncontrollable fire." >> I told you, Tasty Gra, you can't plunder maybe. >> Sometimes I'll hide in a gross Pete bug
in the middle of a raid just so I don't miss market measures. I'm only recently comfortable admitting this, but I think I TRUST MARKET MEASURES MORE THAN I I TRUST MARKET MEASURES MORE THAN I TRUST my savage hellhorse, ARBITRAGE.
slaughtered a horde of conformants this morning. Did the whole terrifying row of thing, but you never know with those idiots. Okay, thanks for the heads up.
>> Normally I hate puns, but that one was okay.
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you with another trade of the day. Uh but before we quickly get into that little bit about the trade that we had put on yesterday. Um so we can go ahead jump into this tasty platform. Uh again, as always, let us know what you're
trading, but we did get a little bit of long delta yesterday inside of Micron. which is nice. We're up about 72 73 bucks on the day. The overall position is up about 52 bucks. It was it was needed. We needed something to hedge
this SpaceX this disappointing SpaceX IPO that I might add here, but both of them are up on the day. Micron is catching a little bit of a bid. The overnight and we have had a little bit of a continuation into the highs. So,
momentum for a little bit longer and then we're going to look to close off this out of the money put spread we put on yesterday together. Uh, that still Um, so you can kind of see we gave oursel a little bit of room from a
strike perspective. And then also from a time standpoint, uh, just in case that little bit longer than we might have anticipated, but we might not even need, you know, all this extra time that we purchased on the Micron contracts. Uh,
but it's it's it's nice to be uh to air on the side of caution. Uh but with that being said, Micron trading at about 970 right now. SanDisk, Intel, those other names following suit. Uh but seeing a little bit more volatility on Micron.
And the next trade of the day, uh next trade idea of the day that I have today trade idea of the day that I have today is actually going to be down. Sahil just hopped on here for trades from the research team. uh and he
I genuinely find this one very attractive because of the fact that we out-of-the-money put uh which only took around $1,000 worth of buying power. So I want to go into this options chain and I want to find uh a naked put
bit of long delta in here. I think Oracle has been absolutely beaten down. Obviously they've had uh they've had more talks about AI and integrating AI of and things of the sort. So, we're getting a little bit of a pullback here.
think is going to be surviving and doing pretty well over the long term, too. So, perspective, not that us as active traders care too much about the the volatility and risk-to-rewards that we can get off these trades, it is
comfort knowing that fundamentally, unlike Beyond Meat, and I'm just going to beat that dead horse. I can't even call it a dead horse cuz it's Beyond Meat is not even real meat. But um aside from Beyond Meat, it's a company that
actually has um some some solid fundamentals. Uh but with that being said, we've been absolutely beaten down. We were trading at a high of about 250 uh early June, and now we're trading out uh we're trading near a low of 125 right
now. So really beaten down. It's $125 stock. Typically, these stocks are sometimes the options can get a little bit pricey when it comes down to uh when undefined risk position. But we're going to see what we can get. We're going to
see what type of time we can get on some of these trades. Um, but let's just go look at the put side. Uh, maybe we can sell a pretty decent out of the money put, get a little bit of long delta on, but also give oursel a decent amount of
same expiration like we did with Micron, the August 21st contracts that expire in the bat, when I look at this expected move, I look at the 110 calls. I mean, we could sell that. That's for about $1,100. Uh, the pop on that one is going
to be about 76%. um delta 21. So, it's not it's not too enough for me to feel comfortable to feel like I even have a long position on. Um and then max profit is going to be sitting around 315, right? I mean,
the the underlying right now is trading for about 3 315 on the bid, about, you for about 3 315 on the bid, about, you know, 330 uh on the ask. So, it's not enough. We'll put it that way. It's tight enough. See if we can get this one
to to send through. I I really like the pop. I like the P50. Um, and again, I mean, around $1,000 for an undefined risk trade, especially on an underlying the downside. I love these type of contrarian trades, especially when I can
there, too. So, we're going to try and send this one through, but let's see if we can catch a fill. Um, if anybody in chat wants to go ahead, never mind. We anybody wants to go ahead and buy that 110, we could just trade the contracts
ourselves within with within each other. We could do that. But we got filled for We could do that. But we got filled for the 110 put on uh on Oracle. So I just giving me the trade idea that that ended up trumping the other ideas that I had.
Um so we got a little bit of long delta and Oracle. Uh we'll keep an eye on beefing up the portfolio a little bit more here and by the end of the day you'll be able to see these on the trade page. Uh but we got more long delta in
Micron. uh we got more long delta in Oracle and then we also have uh unfortunately we have a little bit long delta in SpaceX at the same time. So this portfolio is leaning to the long side. A lot of these super hyped up
names are finding a little bit of a pullback. So the the position isn't oh we think these things are going to go on an insane run, but these three the short term over the last 2 to four weeks. You could put it that way. um we
just want to capitalize on the opposite direction on a little bit of that counter counter trend trade I guess you could put it and when it come again lastly when it comes down to these counter trend trades uh you know I know
we're trading but timing is timing is kind of important when it comes down to thing we don't want to do which our parents have taught us is overstay our welcome so it's going to be nice to continue to see some of these catch
momentum to the upside catch a little bit of a bid but overstaying the welcome do our best to avoid. Again, this could gap down tomorrow, right? Oracle could continue to sell off a little bit lower from where we had gotten the position
mentality, not overstaying the welcome, but being able to capitalize on a little the same time because like we've seen before, right, markets can continuously head in one direction, but at some time at some point in time, we typically see
a little bit of a relief pop um a little a little bit of a pause in the seen. Not to say that it's going to reverse course. Uh but you guys get the so we'll keep an eye on it. Um and as we
have just a little bit more time here, I just want to quickly uh go into another trade idea that we were offered earlier today was XLE. Um right, decent IV rank. Um obviously going to be correlated to a lot of these energy products. So
right? I know we were just looking at USO at the same time. I would love to get on a little bit of long delta in these energy names, but you know, something that's always been difficult for me was getting on long delta as
or getting on short delta as we're trading to the downside or we're trading difficult to put on the trades at that point. But if we do see some type of pullback in these names, uh maybe we pull back to 120, maybe we pull back,
you know, maybe we pull back to, I don't know, 110, 108, whatever it might be, I bit long. Uh I am still going to be leaning a little to the long side. So regardless if that's in USO, if that's an XLE, um anything to do especially
with the oil names, going to try and get on some long delta. But man, it can be so tough to get long as the market has already continuously been trading in that direction. Um, but no, with that being said, we're going to keep an eye
on this. We plotted our volume profile on our oil products just to give us an idea of where most of the trading activity has taken place. Um, and if we just quickly, you know, use these price lines to give you a visual uh for where
talk about one standard deviations and bell curves all the time on the Tasty too much from a price standpoint. Sometimes we can still take that data, the trading volume, um, and put that into a bell curve to give us an idea,
moves are, the two standard deviation moves. Um, so lastly, before we go here, just to give a little bit more context, especially for these oil names, just to give a little bit more context for these oil names, you can see in between 77 and
in between 90 on oil. That's the one standard deviation for the trading volume, right? That's for the trading activity that's taking place, the buying It doesn't matter if it's a if it's all buying. It doesn't matter if it's all
and every seller needs a buyer. And that's calculated as volume. But that gives us a better idea again for the for where the market has found these prices something right. And we can use something like a volume profile which
gives us a distribution of volume, a distribution of trading activity to show their money where their mouth. You know what I'm saying? Like that's one of the the best ways to view the volume. It's it's it's actual transacted volume in
the market. So the volume profile can let us know, you know, where are people putting um where are people actually putting money down? Are people putting what price levels, you know, is that standing at right now? Uh we have the
point of control uh trading at about 83.88 right now in oil, which is really interesting, right? Because uh we're just hovering above that price point right now. Um and the point of control stands for the PC or the point of
that distribution of volume. This is the point of control. This is a this is the specific price level where we had the most trading activity within that data set. And when I say that data set, it's everything that's encompassing inside
this uh fixed range volume profile. So, we'll keep an eye on this. It's going to be interesting to see if we can trade near our value area high. If we can and bit of continuation outside of this value area high, we most likely see new
I guess it's maybe just a little bit of a pullback that we're waiting on in oil, but like we were talking about with Sahil earlier again, um like we were I mean the sentiment on something like oil can switch at the snap of a finger,
right? We're we're putting in lower lows continuously day by day on oil and then in the bottom, you know, on this short-term move that we're looking at mean, we just completely reversed from there. That ended up being the low. Um,
and now we're trading at 84 where we were just trading at 66 on oil. So because we get to this value area high doesn't mean we're going to have a continued breakout or we're going to get a a reversal or a sell-off now from
here. All it does is it gives us a little bit more context, you know, for and how market participants are positioning themselves. Um, and lastly oil, uh, this one standard deviation or this range that we have marked off is
also known as fair value. Fair value being the price range where buyers and sellers quote unquote agree on the current range or the current prices. Um, activity. But no, with that being said, we're going to keep an eye on this oil
alive. Look, that's what I'm saying. Even with even with things like Micron these things come back around and make new highs. Right. I would love for us to little bit of a change of behavior because whenever you don't catch the
long side, maybe I'm projecting a little bit whenever I don't catch the long trigger to the upside. But we do know the the further these expand from a price point standpoint from a price point from a price point standpoint
standpoint price point. uh whenever that happens, you know, the names are because whenever these eventually pull back, they're still going to offer more opportunities for the longs and short side. So, I'm not
guys, as we start to wrap up here, again, lastly, we got on Micron, $5 wide put spread. We got on Oracle. It's not something we do very often, right? It's not very often you're able to find a trade that has a decent amount of buying
buying power, but also not a stock that is per se, I guess, too scary to get nerves are pretty calm when it comes to Oracle just because it's been so beaten tomorrow. Yeah, I could continue to sell off, but the fact that we've already
sold off over 100 points from its previous swing high, a little bit more on some long delta there. So, we'll be patient. And then SpaceX going to need know, lastly, again, I just got to I just got to pull up Beyond Me last
lastly before we go here. I just can't believe it. 60 cent stock, 59 cent stock, as it should be. No, I I don't I don't mean to get into the skin of any, you know, pro Beyond Meat lovers, but I just can't believe this thing has gotten
so much hype, so much volatility. Um, and it's just it's it's even such a it's want to do anything in that. But with that being said, guys, that's going to be the trade idea for the day. Uh, we got on Oracle. uh we sold a naked put,
throughout the rest of this week. But we're going to go ahead and toss this over to Mike and get his trade idea for the day. So, thanks for taking the time. Let's see what Mike got to say about these trade ideas.
today. If you join us in the morning show, we got filled on a bunch as well. show, we got filled on a bunch as well. But this is actually a trade idea that was derived from Liz. So Liz was saying, you know, one of my favorite things that
I like to do if I have 100 shares of stock, instead of selling a call against where I took the stock, I like to protect it with a put ratio spread. And I was like, okay, let me think about that. I love it. I love it. And really,
it makes a lot of sense. The the intention has to be though, you want to should say, you're willing to take another 100 shares of stock. You may not know, but a a put ratio spread is a really effective way to reduce cost
basis in general because you are ultimately financing the cost of a long put debit spread. Very similar to the Super Bowls or the Super Bears you hear us talking about all the time. Now, a put ratio spread is no different. You're
selling an extra short put to finance the entire cost of a long put debit spread. And that's how the trade can be routed for a credit on entry and also routed for a credit on exit if you get the timing right. and your short puts
lose value, your long put gains value. It's kind of this omnidirectional trade, Omniirectional, meaning the delta can go from positive to negative. You can make money in a myriad of different ways. But I really like the idea of using a put
ratio spread to reduce cost basis on a 100 shares of stock that I already own. So, let's dive in to the platform and we'll look at it right now. Uh, we're we'll look at it right now. Uh, we're looking at SLV. SLV is uh an interesting
little beast here. So on this day, January, what is this? January 29th, January 30th, I said, you know what, this implied volatility is so high, I'm going to go ahead and sell a strangle in this thing. And the next day, literally
the next day, and I can prove this with the order chains here, July, January the order chains here, July, January 29th, I sold an 87210 strangle and uh immediately the stock went down from 100 to 68. So that's what you call poor
timing, people. Poor timing. Uh but all that to say, I've got this 100 share short put, basically the entire trade. We can walk through my order chains and give you a holistic view of this entire trade. Uh, but I'm going to do just
that. I'm going to take Liz's thought process here and I'm going to reduce my cost basis on SLV or pick up another 80 cents or so and uh throw on a put ratio spread in SLV. So, we saw this big drop. Uh, it it was crazy. It had a huge
implied volatility. I mean, look at this. I had an 87210 strangle on uh in January. 50 days to go and I picked up $860 $860 for an 87210 strangle in SLV SLV which
has really low implied volatility. So the next day after the drop of course my 210 call instantly became worthless because the stock went from the ETF went because the stock went from the ETF went from 110 to 60 uhish. So rolled it down
from 210 to 150. Still maintained a really wide strangle and then a couple of weeks later it chopped around. chopped around uh in February 18th. So like right here, I rolled my 150 strike down to 87. So I basically went from an
down to 87. So I basically went from an 87210 strangle to an 871 150 strangle and then down to an 87 straddle. Uh and I haven't really looked back since. I've had an 87 straddle or an inversion ever since that point. So all along the way
started with eight bucks and change, rolled down for a$140, rolled down for another$140 when I arrived at the straddle. Then I moved the uh straddle out from March and out to April and I went from a 87 straddle up to an 87100
strangle. So that was just rolling into this the heightened implied volatility little bounce here. So we talk about this all the time rolling into exttrinsic value strength. Uh I timed it pretty well here. I rolled on the 23rd.
So into this big rally up here on this final green bar. That's when I rolled into that uh from the straddle into the strangle. Tons of exttrinsic value I collected. Picked up another $3.60 and then we saw it rise a little bit
more. That would have been the best possible day. Hindsight's 2020, but that day. I was pretty close to it. Uh so we'll take it either way. SLV chopping around and then boom, you see it fall all the way down into the 50 handle. And
that's when I was like, okay, I've collected enough so far that I'm just going to roll this back down from an 87100 strangle back to a 8797 strangle. So reduced the width a little bit. But look at that. Picked up another $3.40
going from May to June. And then after that, uh, we saw that the market wasn't really doing all that much. So, I ended up rolling to a uh 87 straddle at that
point and picked up another 250. And as you can see, I've basically just been rolling this short call and this this short put here uh al together. But started with $8.60 in credit and I've turned it into $2,300 in credit. So, I
took a 100 shares as SLV continued to drop. eventually had an inversion, sold drop. eventually had an inversion, sold a call against it uh at the 57 strike eventually SLV just dropped out to where it is now. We're finally starting to see
a nice little rally here though. So, I've got 100 shares at 87, $2,300 in premium, which means my break even is right around 65. So, if I draw another line here at 65, uh, we can see, you know, I've got a long ways to go before
I get to my share price. But because I collected so much premium, I've reduced my basis all the way down to 65. But the beauty of a put ratio spread, I believe we have a graphic we can throw up here to show you uh, the strike selection and
everything. But the put ratio spread, as you can see, max profit, this white line, max profit at the short strikes. So, looking at buying the 53 put 30 days out, selling two of the 51 puts and reducing my basis all the way down to 49
uh less than 49 actually because if you look at this risk profile, you've got 53 to 51. That's your long put spread, which means you will have $200 of additional protection on top of that credit received. Uh, so
we're down at like 48.20 would be my break even on the new trade if I'm filled at 80 cents of a credit, which is what I have it working in right now. So really like this type of trade, especially for cost basis reduction, but
I'm also picking up 80 cents. It's hard to find 80 cents of premium on the upside without totally capping out my recovery potential on my 100 shares at a recovery potential on my 100 shares at a basis of 87. So I like this trade. Uh we
can also look at the risk profile here on the platform. So I've got 100 shares of stock. If I'm filled on this trade, uh max profit on this isolated trade is $280 if it expires exactly at 51. But this is really what I'm looking for
because if I do end up taking another 100 shares, my 51 strike short put would be hit. So I'd have another 100 shares at 51 on top of my existing shares at
87. If you add those up, real quick math, we're talking 138, math, we're talking 138, then you divide 138 by two and you've then you divide 138 by two and you've got a basis of around uh 6768.
So you ultimately I'd bring my cost basis down looking at this chart kind of right between this range, right? So we've had uh 100 shares at 87. I would get another 100 shares with a basis of like 6768, but that's where my break
even already is. So if I were to achieve this, I'd have 200 shares at a basis of around this level, 6768, and uh I can continue to sell premium against 200 shares now. So it just creates an opportunity for me to sell
more premium against another 100 shares. SLV is a $50 stock. I can afford another 100 shares. That's the beauty of trading small. You can get your cost basis down in a number of different ways. Uh and ultimately, that's the plan here. So,
we're seeing a 4% rally in silver today. If we look at the watch list, uh here we can see on the futures, that's actually one of the leaders to the upside. It is the leader in the CME futures watch list, silver here. So, SLV going to move
in a similar way. I like the way that we're seeing this bounce today. And if continue, I'm still going to collect that 80 cents in the middle here. uh anywhere out of the money to the upside. But again, if we get that downside move,
I can pick up another 200 bucks uh with this vertical spread, which brings my this vertical spread, which brings my bases all the way down to 4820. bases all the way down to 4820. Uh so yeah, that is my trade uh for this
day here. And I think there's a number of different ways you can do it, but again, just looking at the table view here in August, I could sell a call, and I fully uh thought I was going to sell a call into this rally. I think you still
could if you wanted to be more uh simplistic with this sort of strategy. If you look at the net change today, this option is trading for the 5758 right at the expected move in August. Trading for about a dollar25 depending
on where you look. But these options have essentially doubled in price from yesterday. And that's to be expected with a 4% rally in something like silver that still doesn't have that much implied volatility. We're seeing a
two-point rally today to the upside. the next 30 days have a $5 implied move here. So, lots to consider. Uh, but again, I already have a 100 shares. I'm totally comfortable taking another 100 shares. And if I do get hit with another
100 shares, it's going to dramatically reduce that cost basis reduction. So, looking at SLV, I think uh it's a nice efficient use of capital, too. If you just look at a brand new short put or a brand new strangle, if you were to throw
on something new, if you're looking for maybe a perpetual premium short premium trade in something like SLV, you're putting up 600 bucks in buying power, you're picking up $200. In this example that I just threw on in August, 30 days
is a pretty short time frame. And a $600 buying power reduction for a $200 credit is a really high return on capital. I like to look at anything that's 20% or more. So, 600 bucks in buying power. I'm looking for a$120 or more. This
certainly exceeds that at $2, which means it's an efficient use of capital. Uh, I like to avoid the trades where you're putting up $600 and you're collecting like 50. I I think it's just a tough use of capital. You have a lot
of risk. You don't have a lot of profit potential. Uh, I'd rather just go defined risk if that is the case. But in SLV, right now, we're getting a nice little pickup in uh implied volatility here into this rally. We've got an IV of
47%. So, still plenty of premium to sell here. And you can see across the board in all of these expirations, we're above 40% uh for the most part. So, lots to consider, lots to think about. But I think this is an intelligent way to
reduce cost basis. This is the longest winded way of saying, Liz, I agree with winded way of saying, Liz, I agree with you. Uh I like the shortput ratio in uh 100 shares that you already own. you keep that premium, you have no cap on
the upside. Uh but that's really the case here. If I am going to take another case here. If I am going to take another 100 shares, then I will go to uh two two it's going to be nice, right? Because then I can pick up $300 instead of a
dollar for these strikes. And I always have the ability to roll up and out. And I think that is one of the most powerful things that you can do for covered call situations. Like if you have 100 shares of stock and you sell a call against it,
let's say you're trying to pick up this $150, which is great, reduces your cost basis, but if SLV rallies up to 58 or 56, I don't have to stop there. There's nothing that says I need to stop there. Uh, and that's really the the light bulb
moment that I think has hopefully permeated through the Tasty Live audience, but really for me too is like I don't need to uh let the Delta control undefined risk. That's what we've been doing with our year-long trades in ES
touches the short call, I'm not underhedging. I'm just shoot shifting really great trade because we haven't been caught on these upside moves that we're seeing today uh in this low VIX environment where I expect the market to
go higher with some chop here and there. But until the volatility environment changes, I'm still going to continue to play for some more upside moves. Um, but getting back to this SLV trade and how you can manipulate it, if you have a
$150 debit, all you have to do uh to offensively roll this covered call if you had 100 shares is buy it back for $150 and go out to any of these expirations like September or October. Uh, I would still stick with September
if I can help it, but you can move it up. So, I could go from a 56 short call in August to a 60 short call in September and pay 3 cents or collect a
credit if I want to move it to the 59, pick up 20 cents. Uh, this still reduces my cost basis, not by way of credit received, uh, but really uh, in terms of max profit, it increases my max profit because I'm moving it from 56 to 59, but
I'm not paying anything to do that. I'm still reducing cost bases a tiny bit, but this is again more of an offensive role when you get tested. Uh, and another good example is like let's say you're in August right now and into this
rally. You already sold a 53 strike and you're like, "Wow, maybe silver can continue higher." Same story applies. You can buy it back in August for 275 or whatever the debit is. Go out to September and look at a strike that is
September and look at a strike that is offering you 275 or around there. So, just looking at uh 55 a.5 or maybe it's the 55. You can move it up and out two points, pick up another 20 cents, give yourself another $200 of max profit
potential. But again, these trades, you don't need to stay in the cycle. Let's say you're super bullish. You could move this out to December if you really on delta. If you get a downside move in
reduce in value. You can see it here. 60 cents today, 50 cents today on this 4% rally. So, let's say you wanted to be super bullish here. You buy it back in August. You turn it into a long-term trade. You go to the 65 strike or the 64
strike out in December. You've totally shifted your exttrinsic value from at the money to far out of the money at the expected move. And you've given yourself another $1,100 of profit potential in silver. So, you can manipulate these
things however you like. But, uh, that's the trade of the day. Silver put ratio spread. I haven't been filled yet, but I'll be filled sometime today around 80 cents. the 5351 in the August cycle to reduce cost basis on my shares. But with
that, I'm going to pass it over to Jamal for the next trade idea of the day.
liking this stuff that we're doing here with Trades of the Day. Also, give me a there's some people out there who remember engineering trade. Just, you a like. But, uh, we're super excited to be here giving you trade ideas. This is
things that we're doing all day long anyway. And, um, we're here. So, I was racking my brain, you know, this morning. What could I do? What do I want to trade? Is it a semi? Is it a an ETF? Is it uh, you know, something in the
consumer staple space and get some exposure on there. And then I realized well of something I I was trading not too long ago and it's oil. So recently I too long ago and it's oil. So recently I had on some oil trades um and I
basically um you know as as I I initially did two trades. I did one trade in MCL and I went trade in CL and the CL trade was the one where it was just a long call spread and then I had a ratio spread to
the upside in MCL. Uh look recently we've seen this move. It started last week from like about 72 to 80 and change in oil. There's been a discussion again. straight of moves. We're talking about what's going on in Iran. And you can see
move in oil. And so, you want to try to find ways to take advantage of it. Initially, I did it as a result of the move. And um probably was expecting about maybe a move measured move towards 90, but I got the profit that I wanted
and I got out of the trade. And then um I decided once again the volatility actually picked up in NCL and MCL and I decided I wanted to do the trade. So obviously the easiest way to go about this. I mean, sure, we can go to CL. Um
look at the chart here and and going back to the beginning of the month, it it would seem as though right around um uh the day like about a day after the 4th of July essentially once that trading calmed down, we started to see
this move as we came back to trading the week after and it's just been a steady week after and it's just been a steady climb since then from about uh 72 um and change here uh basically around 70 to where we are now at 84. And um we
all know that MC uh CL is the big boy contract. And so I wanted to go to uh MCL and um this was actually one of the trades that I went back uh that I did uh earlier in the year. I did a strangle for here. Um I did a strangle in here
volatility just absolutely collapsed after the the things changed the regime change over there in Iran. there was just like a pullback in the price and remember volatility was in the 80s and 90s for a while there and it really
doesn't work what I'm about to do if we start to go back to that type of regime. you're seeing a lot calmer price move in oil than we did a while ago, right? So,
super long. I initially analyzed looking at uh maybe doing in September just to get a higher volume. I wanted um sorry, higher higher amount of premium from these options. And so I was going uh I looked initially at September and again
remember with oil is the different contracts, right? So right now the front month contract is U cycle, right? Uh which is signifies September for those who don't know. Um as far as futures go, U is September, V is October, X is
November, Z is December. Why is it like that? Nobody knows. There's a weird a lot of times right now we're looking at the MCL U6 right that's trading $8443
um the September contract is uh I should say the September options are being settled to the V contract and that's trading $8226 this has $2 of what we call backwardation meaning the front month
future is trading over the next month future and you usually see this in situations of a lot of demand for the current uh commodity In this case, now, right? Because of what's going on with the price and it's moving a lot
with the price and it's moving a lot higher in a very fast way. And um that's in futures. And then it's it's always interesting just to look across the curve. Uh we talk about this a lot here at Hasty Live, but just want to make
sure those who don't see this too often kind of understand. And I'm trying to be are probably new to the space and might not necessarily fully understand all these things. You'll see this in futures from time to time. Uh this is again the
example, I'm looking at volatility futures and we look at the VIX and this Now we don't have the futures listed here, but I do have them on the side of my panel here. You can see the front month VIX future Q is signifying August
futures. So that's August VIX future that's trading $18.40. that's trading $18.40. We actually um today is the last day for We actually um today is the last day for the uh the the VIX options in September.
gets a little confusing, but these VIX options in um in the July, excuse me, in the in contract July, these actually stop trading today and then tomorrow the VIX July contract will expire, right? And so that's the July right now. That's
trading $17. The Q August trading $18.40. September U trading 1940. We call that contango because the front month is lower than the months after it. And so to go back to oil, you're seeing a
what happens when something is beginning to get a little bit volatile, right? Um, and that's what we are seeing mostly in oil. Right now, we're seeing $84.40 for
the September contract. I know it says August options, but you always got to it's settling to. And if you can see in that small print there, it says / CLU6, which is the front contract. And so 8440, 8220 on down the list, you can see
it starts to calm down, meaning gets lower prices as we go further out conflict is going to last that long. Who knows if that really ends up happening. That all depends on the rhetoric that we hear, but that's kind of one way to
think about it. So, back to the trade here. Like I said, I initially looked at September, but I don't know again how long this is going to last. I don't know how much rhetoric is going to happen. Day in and day out, we come in and we
Not as much as we did three, four months ago, but still it's it's a ever evolving situation. So, as a result, I don't want to go too far out. Um, and again, you can just adjust this any given time. You can go to all expirations or uh which
you can just go to regular expirations. Um, sometimes that weeds out the weekly contracts. So, I decided I just want to stay in the 27-day cycle. Now, we've Tasty, as a lot of you probably know that shows that uh volatility declines
most quickly in the 45day cycle. And on we usually try to close those positions or roll out in 21 days. Why? Because as you get closer and closer to expiration, everything ratchets up. Whether it's gamma, whether it's Vega, uh not Vega,
sorry, that becomes more of a gamma, but a delta can probably get a little bit higher and ratchet up. And so things start to move a lot more quickly as you That's why a lot of times the 21 days were out. But if there were a 30 or
40day cycle, I would regular I would rather to be in that. Uh but I just That's a little bit too long for me right now. So I'm going to go in the right now. So I'm going to go in the August cycle and um I'm going to sell a
strangle here. We're going to go to this 20 delta option, this 75. I feel reasonably good that uh if oil starts to come back again. We just came back from where it was down to 6970. We could return to that. I think it would be a
lot slower. I think I have a chance to withstand that uh move down if it were to happen within this tight cycle here. And again, I don't expect to have this trade on much longer than maybe 15 days. We'll see. So, selling that 75 put
We'll see. So, selling that 75 put there. That's about uh maybe 10% out of the money. A little bit more, I think. 84. Yeah, it's a little more than than sounds good to me. And then I'm going to go to the upside. Um, I'm going to go,
deliberating how far to go. And again, the interesting thing about oil, as you you this, let's check it real quick. Let's look at skew. Um, let's look at uh, $10 out of the money. Let's look at the 74, which is essentially where we
were. I always like to check skew just a little bit and like sell the put. See what that's like. $10 out of the money. And then let's go to the 94. And I like to buy that. And you can see because there's a 143 debit, that means the call
is trading over the put, right? So, not surprising there, especially with oil, especially with oil moving to the upside. Oil tends to crash up, right? Um, and so as a result, that's why you'll see a lot of skewed to the upside
in oil. So, um, but what I'm going to do is go, uh, $10 in either direction. So, I'm going to sell the 95 and I'm going to sell the 75 put. Total premium of $4.17 here. Uh $900, $926 in buying power that
we're using. And you know, when you look at this trade, um let's do a little analysis on this thing going to the analysis on this thing going to the curve. And uh we'll we'll see like right
Obviously, if it moves around quite a can see your PL expiration. You can see PNL Theo, but let's just um let's see what it looks like. One, you should always take things to extreme um and see
always take things to extreme um and see what it looks like and at an expiration, right? So, on the 17th, obviously, if nothing were to happen, right? And um we were to continue to move uh around a little bit, but never really get out of
the range, obviously at expiration, I'd make the total amount if it stays within that 75 and 95. um sort of bracket there, right? But you know, that's probably this thing not moving over the next 27 days, me holding this
those things are probably going to happen. So, it's better to just sort of get an idea of going back to today. And you know, you can see your expiration idea. Right now, this sort of tells you if things were things were to move
could, you know, say we were to get back down to 70, right? Probably looking at a loss, probably a the loss of around $400 just from volatility alone. It depends on what time frame in which that happens. And then P&L expiration at 70.
You can see uh let's go to 70 just to get an idea cuz that's where we came from about down $72, right? And if we go to the upside, say all of a sudden oil jumps and it gets back up to 100, right? And get makes a big move. Even within
but then but if it were to do that in the meantime between time, I'm going to you can see I could possibly be down somewhat $6, $600. Now, let's just say oil stays somewhere between this 75 and 95 range. And let's just say what I I
95 range. And let's just say what I I said uh 15 days here. So, let's go um to the fourth, right? Say I'm around here. We could possibly make about half of our our money here just from oil sort of chopping around this range, if you will,
and not necessarily exceeding any price too high, especially going above 95. So, of my my idea. I'm going to take this down to even 415. Well, you know, will this thing trades in pennies, right? Let's double check. Um, hold on. Cancel.
Let's double check. Um, hold on. Cancel. Let's go back to the table here and see. Uh, yeah, it does trade in pennies. Maybe it'll fit me a 417. Okay, no, it doesn't. So, we'll step down a little bit just to get filled on this trade.
Um, I'm only giving you a penny trade. I'm not giving you much more. Oh god, it wants to be difficult. All right, I'm stepping down to 415. typically don't step down too often. Sometimes you got to let the trade come
to you. I kind of figured 415 would possibly be the number where it would possibly be the number where it would get me at anyway. Um but uh yeah, now get me at anyway. Um but uh yeah, now we're we're cooking with gas here, guys.
And so this is um the the uh trade that we decided to do in oil right now. Uh you know, volatility is is uh in in this in this volatility is is uh in in this in this contract is 66 as you can see. Uh let me
analysis tab, but let's look at implied here. Implied Vall is in the in the 50s bit higher on the upside. As you can see, that's why the the amalgamated number is 66. But you can see on the upside uh 67 68 like we just said, skew
is higher. That's your other indicator for why how skew is trading in oil right now. And so I like selling a 66 fall. I like doing in 27 days cycle. Again, I could probably hold this trade for maybe 15 days or so. and then eventually move
on. Just to give you an idea of what that looks like in CL, just to show you why we're choosing MCL as opposed to CL. Um let's sim similar trade here. Uh I mean this is a big boy contract here, folks. So that's why we're, you know,
folks. So that's why we're, you know, again, um 10 times bigger, $9,000 of of premium. Uh $9,000 of buying power for $400 in premium. That riskreward is just something in MCL because it's just a smaller contract. It makes it a whole
lot easier, a whole lot more digestible, too. I could also say, um, and this probably won't happen for me, but let's just say you're a little bit worried about oil eventually making a big move here, right? Um, you could also buy, you
know, the contract to protect yourself. For the most part, that short put's going to give you some long delta, minute amount. But let's just say you you're a little bit worried about uh the move in oil and it's possibly going
contracts, right? Uh they they're not that expensive from the standpoint of right? If you're trading somewhere between 25 and $50,000 book, buying this It can protect you a little bit, make you feel better, make you sleep better
at night if you want. But um that's the thing I like about trading this MCL. liquid, too, despite the fact that it didn't fill me at 417. It filled me 2 cents lower, but it is a pretty liquid contract. And so that is the trade of
contract. And so that is the trade of the day. Now we're going to go to um a special guest here in Mr. Bren Kachuba from Spotam and have him come on and from Spotam and have him come on and discuss his trade of the day.
>> from Spot. How you doing man? >> I'm doing wonderful. How you doing? wonderful man. Everything's pretty good here. We just had a huge bout of heat, Speaking of heat, I'm sure you're about to bring the heat.
show in Las Vegas. It's 99 degrees outside, so uh it's less hot. >> I got a little bit of weird background today, too. But I did push a trade of the day. I got one here uh queued up for you.
>> I'm looking and I put in the chat here. Um the semi-trade is a popular one right of wacky things happening in the volatility market when you look at tech volatility versus uh index like S&P index volatility. And what the
interesting thing about the AI environment right now is that it's minute the memory stocks are the best thing ever. The next minute you got you know the cost be selling off 30% and whatever else. So it's a very dynamic uh
who's fairly techsavvy, I can't make next step is going to be and whether I need to be in, you know, GPUs or memory >> Y >> So what has happened now though is the
VA has lifted a lot and we used to be in this very call skew dominated position in the memory names. If you look at like DRAM or if you look at the semispace and now it's happened. So we had extremely rich implied ball, rich call skew. Now
we've slid across sort of a matrix and now we have rich implied ball but we have a put skew and that is because obviously a lot of these names have been traded down and so the way that I look at this is
I think that what you've had over the last call it two weeks with like I'll last call it two weeks with like I'll just use DRAM or EW as a barometer is about down about 30% roughly 25 30% into yesterday I think it's up quite a bit
today um and bouncing back some but the V is still very elevated and that is the thing that I'm trying to isolate and kind of attack so to speak. Uh this may compliance part but let's just say I want to trade that. [laughter]
to point out real quick this volatility looking at the implied volatility on the you're right and it's and DRAM anyway and it's 97 on the upside in DRAM. Yeah, absolutely. And and so there's a
couple of different flavors to where where you want to trade this, right? And little bit of edge looking at a Micron or a SanDisk or uh you know, a specific company, you could put a same trade on one of those names, you could go to
because that's fairly elevated. I've also been looking at EWY as well as SKHY. That's the new uh ADR obviously. Um, and so the trade I proposed here with you, if you want to put this on an
>> Okay. >> Uh, I think with Sandis and Micron, it something like this. So, I sort of steer clear for this, you know, type of an little on this. The way that I was looking at this and
days here and I added a little bit to it this morning. I did just get off a plane check the numbers on this. Uh, but I did add to a little bit on a plane. It's I did add a little bit when I was looking at these trades. Uh, I put on
>> so this is my logic here. >> SK Highix. >> Yes. Yes, sir. Yep. Uh, I don't know if you can see the chat there too, but basically what I did is I sold Yep. I I bought the 125 puts and I sold the 100s.
>> And I did that for a credit of about four bucks is what I what I was able to of glanced quickly. >> So you bought one of the 125s and sold >> That's that's right. And you should be able to do that for about a $4 credit.
>> Yeah. And that's obviously bounced a little bit here today. Now this trade you could tweak the legs to it a little bit. And the reason I like this trade is because my target here again is the volatility component. I want to short
ball and the put skew if you look at some of our data I know show spot game high right now. Right? So if you look at the put wing I'm trying to get myself in the frame here. It's very steep. Y >> and so I want to sell two options at
that steep skew point. Right? And so that's why I'm selling those two 100 strike options and I'm buying that 125. I think roughly SKHX, which is already down a lot. These dering room names are already down a lot. You know, I don't
know. I'm not a fundamental analyst obviously, so I don't know how what the around 125. We're probably pretty safe. But the reason that I went out in know, sometimes you can be a little early could go a little bit higher here.
But this trade has a negative gamma profile. It is roughly delta neutral. little bit of negative gamma in there. So if we do have another big drop down and ball does spike a little bit, the trade will go against me a little, but
giving myself to January number one gave me a little bit more Vega. It also I it also if the stock rallies that ball comes in a little bit that'll profit it'll generate a little bit of uh positive PN on here. But the other thing
that's interesting me to me about this from a risk perspective is if the name or the sector continues to slide lower and as time passes obviously January is quite a ways from now but as time passes that 125 put right if it's near the
money it will pick up in gamma and so eventually this structure could turn into a positive gamma trade for me if we have a sort of sustained bearish move to grind down in the space for example and so again the the goal here is to be
short Vega and hopefully uh Vault comes in. That's what my view is here. If we bit of recovery, things kind of plane out a little bit in the volatility space here. This trade should do well. It's on for a net credit. Uh if I'm wrong and
the name kind of grinds lower. If I give it some time here, um then I think the positive Pino could could pick up again if V just simply comes in because I did it for a credit. The other thing about this trade is you could you could add
wing fly if you want. Right? So that's certainly an option if you wanted to could change the time frame uh a little more as well. So if you wanted to move September, slide the strikes up a little bit or widen them out. You could change
the profile pretty simply here uh based on exactly kind of what your view is. So Like I said, I have done a couple of these uh I have a a few of these on already. Uh I have played a little bit with different time frames uh going out
doing some of these similar trades in DRAM as well uh for uh full disclosure those around a bit. So that's my idea of the day. I think it's a little bit of a something different than I know you and your audience like to talk about this a
hear something like this on CNBC, for example. Uhuh. You definitely won't hear it on CN Are you kidding me right now? No way. You and I both know that. Good point though about the broken wing butterfly
because I mean just messing around here. I mean if I just added the the 55 and I that I could find where you could still get a credit. You get a 60 credit on that. You know that's one way to play it for those um who might be scared off say
from a you know $9,000 buying power. You could also like like like Brent said you could do this in broking butterfight. You can also do it like you said in DRAM um as well. I mean these names are all kind of similar. Uh so yeah, good call
problem I would say Jamal with with adding that extra but I mean in this case it's defined risk because it could go to zero right I mean I don't think zero I don't really know but they're making money last I checked and there's
like okay uh but you know enteron or something could always come but the problem with adding that broken link uh option the the the downside is it's expensive right that you when I'm when I say that skew is rich right you're just
higher and implied ball as you can see there right and so in this case you know risk just slide the entire structure down and still try to get maybe a 1 by two that can that can give you a credit knowing that you have zero as a lower
and we I wouldn't suggest one of these trades if you remember when ball was going up as these stocks were ripping into you know April and May because you have unlimited risk right those stocks are going up 20% a day and there is no
risk level so I would do a broken wing callf fly but in this is you know what the lower bound is right it's zero and so you can kind of manage your risk uh I did present it as buying that broken
that more expensive super expensive 50 strike option uh where if the vault to be the first one to lose uh most of its its value right and that dings the >> I'm 100% with you if I'm going to do the trade I would just rather do it you know
opposed to like buying this little thing down here um uh you know but I I know some people are a you know, ward it off a little bit because of of buying power or whatever, right? Um, but again, like you said, for those this trade might not
similar trade and you can do it in in similar products. I mean, again, this is strikes in here? You want me to pick some? >> Yeah. So, actually in DRM, what I was doing a bit more of was I was looking at
was selling a lot of the 40 strike puts. I was going also into December, for And the advantage >> with you, I'm doing the same thing. >> Yeah. and and in and a DRAM because it's an ETF, you know, the the chances of
basket, albeit not a big basket of stocks, but it's a basket of stocks, you quite a bit different from a single stock or a single name going to zero, maybe a little bit more risk in that,
but again, the lower bound is zero, so I can manage my risk appropriately uh in in that fashion. And and again, the goal here is to target the volatility and opposed to betting that there's going to be a huge spike higher in these names,
structure kind of differently. So, you know, if you kind of get this chop, if if the memory names just sort of plane out a little bit here, cool off, and even if earnings are are solid or as earnings come off, the vault should come
off in these names, right? As we get uh some more tech earnings coming in, that may help this structure as well. So, I I think there's a lot of interesting ways Move it around based on your risk profile. Uh keep that one by two
slide the wings down. You can do a whole bunch of uh of interesting things here. like January or or closer in with your short puts? a little bit of a higher strike uh in this case. So, I was selling some of
those se September 18s in particular there. Uh I was selling some of the 40 strikes uh in there and I think they're pretty meaty. the the IV rank we have it as over 90. Uh the put skew rank is over 90 as well based on you know where we
were at last night's close. And so to me to me statistically that is quite elevated right and so I'm playing with a little bit of that. I think in what I found with my experience here Jamal and you're probably the same thing is it's
hard to pick the exact right month and ex exact right strike. So rather than build one big single position, I kind of move things around a little bit uh based on kind of what I uh what I'm seeing out there. So kind of like you have multiple
positions. I won't concentrate too much uh in one expiration. And I've learned you could have these draw downs are a little more sustained than you think, necessarily put your eggs in one basket in that case. But sort of the most risky
short ball space is that September roughly 40 strike puts is uh something I've been I've been playing with and uh and it's been working out. I I haven't really been holding them uh long term when market rallies you get a 10% rally
today. I've kind of been rolling out of those um you know and it's been choppy so you can get in and out and and that's been pretty profitable uh thus far and chart looks pretty good right there. >> Yeah. Right. And I think it's a great
mean I think you you for for and again that you know this because you talked to you talked to plenty of audiences especially ours active traders there around a lot I mean again we got a big day in and a lot of these chips there's
market whether it's between chips or you know the consumer staple stuff at certain days even within tech we've seen the software falling down while you know think the ability to move in and out um I mean on a day like today I think it's
the best thing it's going to work well >> yeah and and in this case when you sell the puts like in DRAM and the stock pops 10% that's a positive delta trade right to the one by two structure which is a little bit more of a ball trade. So you
great I'll I'll roll some of that off and and look for another opportunity elsewhere. So uh a lot of possibilities now with these high ball environments a >> Absolutely. Well great trade with SKH Highix man and stay cool out there in
man. spot gamma. Thanks for watching the Tasty Live, folks. That's our trades of the day. We'll see you around. Watch and subscribe to all content on Tasty Live.
subscribe to all content on Tasty Live. I'm Jamal Chandler. See you.
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sponsored by CME Group. I'm your host Chris Veio. I spac joining us in about 10 or 15 minutes time. Um interesting day today in these markets. Nice little rebound here led by your tech stocks. Your semiconductors are surging once
besides that. So we can go to the chart here. We can take a look right at what's going on with our SMH up now 4.76% here. effect for your NASDAQ which is seeing
gains across the board back through its 50-day. below 29,348 1.5 that's a 570 point gain. Uh Russell 2000 not to be left behind is your 2000 not to be left behind is your second best performer up 1.18% 290 here
the course of the session is the hallmark of the day. VIX is back testing hallmark of the day. VIX is back testing the 17 almost a 16 handle by now 1706 lows. Same goes for your volatility futures which are coming in oh$1845.
They're just about 15 cents off the session lows here. But we're going to before Ilia joins us because there's a whole lot of things going on right now. I have some book trimming to do and some positions to look over. Um importantly
something that I put on with Liz recently in ASML. Liz and I took similar approach to this market but for a different rationale. uh this being one of your, you know, semicap stocks, a company that makes the
equipment for the semiconductor makers. Uh in any event, >> uh we have a little 4.5% bounce here today. What we do see here is uh yeah, that 50-day moving average holding. So, she got the bounce immediately after the
earnings report. I've stuck with it a little bit longer. It's working so far. Uh sitting at that short strike, 31 days to expiration. Short strike is now 1680. yes, the position could be monetized. is going to be taken off today, but there's
get to about 50% probability of profit. So, finally doing what it should be doing in my view, which is finding support where it should be. So, ASML is stocks that we'd say is working in today's session. Uh what else do we have
going on here that's related to tech? Yeah, there's an Amazon position that we have on related to a double, we'll call it the Super Bowl right now. uh given the break above 250 short put spread long call spread using this pivot this
bullish engulfing bar from July 9th as a reference low right now not exactly but broadly speaking it's a market that's up today so the exposure that I have sitting in MNQ what we're doing in the triple Q's right now it is
tentatively still hanging in there which yesterday was looking a little bit worse for the wear um 50-day moving average seems to be important at least for my view because that's a level that I'm tethered around I'm curious what Ilia
thinks here because he's finally on and he's now here to join us. Ilia Spivac, welcome. Uh you and I are going to chop this up for the next 25 minutes. feeling a little bit better about stocks.
>> Feel bad about them today. >> I pro say you probably don't feel bad because your call spreads are nested around the recent all-time highs and this is a 2% move off of a multi-month low. So, um first things first, is this
a reasonable low to look at right now? I'm seeing chart patterns that I find get into them. >> I don't think there's any reason to think that that this is anything other than a retest of the underside of the
range that we broke last week. Uh there's no confirmation of anything other than that. Uh in the NASDAQ, it is much more dramatic than it is in the S&P, which is quite telling. uh the essence of the sell-off has been in tech
essence of the sell-off has been in tech and in the uh distribution around the trade that's been driving this thing and it's been semis and the meltdown in it's been semis and the meltdown in Korea is looking increasingly like a
sort of precursor to what we're watching here. This to me looks like a mulligan to get short. A mulligan to get short in the NASDAQ looking a little bit better. I'm still nursing this. [laughter]
>> It is looking a little bit better. >> I didn't I didn't we didn't quite get which is my stopout point for my trade here, Ilia. Uh, but having top ticked this on July 6, very fortunate to top tick that, I still found myself
here right now, and we can stick with MES business. Show you the same thing as ES. Uh, one, two, three. That's looking a little bit like a morning star candlestick pattern. Um, and it's bringing you today
in ES at least, you're getting that against your 50-day where you're also and the one month. Last time that we saw something like this, we can go here on our 50-day, which did produce a swing low to work off of. Not like a push into
new highs, but it was a swing low. And just for good measure, when we've seen a against the 50, here's a bullish engulfing bar or key reversal. It didn't initially provide support. So sequentially right now, Ilia, if I'm
just being purely agnostic to the >> chart pattern, uh morning star moving average that pulls you through your one week and one month. It's one of adjust my stock long exposure right now. A lot of it's doing much better today.
are shaping up here, both in ES and then in NQ, very type of similar setup here, that maybe the market is trying to find some footing. And the short put spread
stuff can continue to work just like your short call spread stuff can. >> Yeah, basically I I I mean I'd agree with all of that. I would only caution if we go back to ES for a second. I think this is a this is an interesting
think this is a this is an interesting point. So we have these um we have these candlestick patterns and you can go back to the MEES uh chart where you had those think this is an important consideration. Right. So you and I have
been talking for the better part of >> well I don't know almost two decades now >> well I don't know almost two decades now about what you'd call a bullish reversal candlestick pattern. 18 18 years 18 years as of May.
>> Right. So you and I have been uh debating this for a while. And your point is well taken. The essence of the candlestick pattern is to give you a
right? It doesn't matter what the candlestick is called. It doesn't matter what the rules are. All that's whatever. What matters is that there's these patterns that give you a sense of the market's underlying mood.
as reflected in the price action itself which is the purest of all indicators which is the purest of all indicators you could possibly imagine. Okay. you could possibly imagine. Okay. Typically these patterns have a
constraint on them that I am always harping on in the most pedantic fashion possible. Uh that they occur at the tops and bottoms of trends because what they are are trend reversal signals. It's an interesting thing you see in
this structure here. It's not that they don't work. They do. But what they don't have is a trend reversal component. Look at the morning star before this most recent one. It peters out. Look at the bullish
engulfing before the morning star. It peters out. >> Certainly an exhausted market. >> These are not the kind of patterns. And by the way, again, it's not that they don't work. You can see them work in
front of you, but they're only good for a day or two, maybe a few days, maybe a meander into the top of the range. What they don't give you is that thing that they're supposed to show you when they appear in their sort of intended
appear in their sort of intended primordial way where you see them appear at the bottom of a long down move. >> Sure. And then you go, whoa, change of sentiment. So yes, the saw,
>> by the way, that was that was that March low. Is that exact is that exact >> perfect. So when you look at something like that and you go, wait a minute, this is different.
And when that occurs and you confirm it on a break, I mean, we can see the kind >> Oh, sure. So, a >> beautiful rally, >> right? One of the best rallies we've ever had. In fact,
>> right? And we're not cherryp picking. Sometimes these things don't work, but that's just a really good example. When you look at these most recent patterns because they occur at the bottom of a range after a long rally, they don't
have the same sort of dramatic implication. >> And so maybe you get a meander at the top of the range. There are there are implications though, right? Maybe they're not explosive implications,
>> but the implications if if if they were to follow, is today a good day to get we've seen the bottoming effort around the 50-day, >> the market usually has continued to bounce, which you know, tomorrow maybe
you get to the alphabet and the Tesla earnings, which after hours could short circuit the whole thing. So there's your one or two day bounce, right? You give it right back. That does beg the question, given what we're seeing here,
right? Is it better to short the market, you know, uh, 5% away from it 50-day moving average or after it's pulled back >> Well, here's an interesting point on that score.
that score. >> Let's zoom in to a 4hour uh chart. So, where are we here? Look at the underside of where we're testing. Let me
just clean this up a second real quick. Lots of noise here. >> Because I think that's an important consideration here. So, look at the most recent down swing. Then we break it and now we're re retesting it. Um right
So, >> somewhere in this zone. >> Some somewhere in there. Yeah. So, you look at this and you go, "Right." Okay. Barring the chop that you'd normally get on a 4 hour, eight hour, right? This is
not a daily chart. There's going to be a little bit of fuzz, but you're right at before. In fact, you're not even clearing the high of the last test. And clearing the high of the last test. And so, you go, right, is this a place where
I'm going to look for a long side position? Maybe not a short side. I I to be added. >> Yeah. I'm not buying. No, no, no. But confidence that the the positions that we're in right now, right? I'm thinking
>> Oh, I wouldn't be closing them either. >> An ASML, a Google, uh, you know, things that are related like a, you know, even Tesla, TSM, for example. TSM's had a of the trades that we put on last week,
which had 31 days to expiration, 39,400. Um, could you do it again today? Listen, you're still collecting $3.13 in credit for $10. That's pretty much a third of and it it looked like it was falling apart. You know, we're going to hold the
50-day around here. And worse comes to worse, you know, 385. That seems to be a swing zone down in this this area right here. That's here. So, like, okay, let's see what happens. We washed out Friday. I wasn't
in, so I didn't see the wash out, but then today, yesterday, we bounced back. at how some of these trades are shaping up as TSM. >> And it feels like the market action is reaffirming. Okay, we can keep running
down the clock. We are at 31 days to expiration. Don't need to take this off We can go to >> I think that's completely valid. action today. >> I think that's completely valid. I I I
think it's important to consider sort of the difference here. ultimately this is sort of the harping on the on
the candlesticks. It's not that they don't work. They do. It's not that the price action signal in a morning star is somehow not the price action signal when it doesn't appear at the bottom of a move. It is because the the psychology
of what makes those candlestick patterns appear is exactly the same psychology. The difference is when they appear at the bottom of a long move in the opposite direction, it's a tectonic sentiment shift
>> This is not that. >> No, no, no, no, no, no. To me, it we're going to stay within the trend. >> Well, and maybe to the top of the range,
page. >> Which is fine if you punch through the top of that range. It's a different conversation >> if yeah if we punch the top of the range different conversation. So uh in terms
>> I'll be on the long side with you. I mean it's it my calculus is simple. High is holding range is there since miday that's my mo. If the range breaks okay
>> So I'm going to hold MEES for now. Uh and M and Q. We're still sitting above the short strike the triple Q's which looking for a different structure there. Got better payout on the 700695 short put spread. That's a 24DT. I this is
of the week. Quite frankly, I may take this off before tomorrow's earnings just because we're so close to 21 and it's already, you know, small loss here. Um but again, right now, if I'm reapplying this position, it's 685 or so. 680 seems
rebasing above the 50-day, which is important. uh at 31 days to expiration for example if we were to look around there just to start to go fishing as TP or Liz would say you know $1.15 in credit for $5 wide strike not quite a
dollar you know 33 [clears throat] getting into that neighborhood where if you start to look something of an appealing setup if you're looking to sell some VA which
you're looking to sell some VA which it's still a 68.7 IVR Ilia um you raised back meaningfully enough and quite frankly between the highs in the lows. We should just pull up a Fibonacci retracement here just to emphasize this
point. We're basically at the halfway mark. >> In the range that we've been in since the high June, low June, you know, trading area. Um so, so do you want to just is this a great day to sell a put?
might be more prudent if you think the chop's going to continue to look at and we get close to that one month which is 713.60. I know this is a futures program, so the NASDAQ equivalent would be 29,
>> 565, but 29,565, you're at the midway point between the we'll call it the >> Mhm. >> Yeah. >> So, many ways to skip a cat here, I I'm comfortable. It feels like for the first
equity exposure because it looks like I have something that I like to hang my hat on that lets me sleep at night. No, I I think that if I were sitting on something that I was long at lower levels than here,
levels than here, this move today would tell me, okay, you can hold this for a while longer and see how this resolves. To that point, Russell here, uh, very much in that same basket. We're getting
close to, you know, taking this off, Ilia, probably a week out, but 2850 2875. I I think we're getting, you know, the this was initially put on July 8th. you're between the one month and the 50, we were getting good pricing.
>> The 50 is now at 29.29. So, consistent with that, if I were thinking about this today, because again, it's a good candlestick. again, it's a good candlestick. 30, we go to 41. That's pretty close. 29
go to 2950. I mean, Ella, this is this isn't terrible. 25 points wide. So, you're collecting almost $7 in credit. That's a you're sitting below the 50-day moving average for your short strike. Um,
yeah, you know what? I'm going to I like it. Let's get it working. Add more Russell in. Why not? Russell doesn't get any love around here. I'll give it some love. Mhm. That's one I am if I if I was
open-minded, and I am to looking at, okay, maybe if and I am to looking at, okay, maybe if the AI uh narrative has another leg in the meltup, I could get enthused about participating there.
Russell, I see such warts in the business cycle. Like the business cycle looks so hampered to me that companies. >> Yeah. Something this cyclical. No, thank
you. I don't want to accidentally end up on the on the wrong end of Oh my god, on the on the wrong end of Oh my god, this uh this consumption number was what this uh this consumption number was what I mean. We're at 7 um 21 here on the
I mean. We're at 7 um 21 here on the calendar, right? Our next GDP update is >> Sure. >> Take a look at the Atlanta Fed GDP now >> We'll do that. >> We haven't We haven't We haven't looked
at the good old uh the good old Atlanta Fed in a while. I took a look yesterday just to kind of check my sanity. My sanity is fine. >> 1.7%'s not >> It's at baseline. Let's say it's not
good, but it's at baseline. >> The New York Fed now cast is 2.8%. >> between those two >> New York Fed's not very good at this is and Atlanta Fed are the two good ones. St. Louis is garbage. Uh San Francisco's
bigations. >> San Franc San Francisco Fed is not good at GDP. They're much better at forecasting inflation number >> Yeah. New York, New York and and Atlanta. I usually take the midpoint of
the two for what like as I'm thinking. So 2.8 1.7 maybe it's 2% in that neighborhood, >> right? Which is about where we are now. war. >> Pretty bad how we got there though.
>> I know I know about the economy running hot. Can I bring up the something about the earnings here? >> Yes. Um, [clears throat] if Micron and Nvidia were taken out of the contributions for Q2 S&P 500 earnings
the uh, blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 would drop from 24.7 to 16.8%. Now, that seems like a steep drop, but if I recall correctly, last
quarter, even with those two companies in the mix, we were only expecting 12% start of Q1. So the rest of the market,
>> I'm I know this looks like, oh, this is so dramatic. These companies are so big numbers. It's true. But there is also a lot of money that's being made by a lot >> Even if you strip out the two heavyweights that are driving most of
>> Yes. Yes. >> Can't discount that. I don't think that's anything that the market cares about at this point. Not because it's insignificant. It is very significant.
>> but because it's it's discounted that in the price already the price already >> because you're very clearly seeing that >> I mean just look at again South Korea is obviously a dramatic example that there
was a speculative >> retirees dissolving their pension funds to buy triple lever stocks. >> As I say it was obviously going to come crashing at some point. This was a speculative uh a speculative bonanza.
speculative uh a speculative bonanza. >> Is it any different in >> Is it any different in philosophy than the speculative bonanza philosophy than the speculative bonanza happening in SMH or socks? No. It's
>> yes. >> And so you look at this and you go, okay, right. They're making a bunch of money. We know there's a buildout. Yes.
We know. Sort of. There's kind of a buildout. There's the intention to have the buildout. There's the promise of the money. And there's manufacturers buying inputs to get ready for when it'll start in earnest.
>> I'll see you there when the political position eases. But [laughter] >> but in the meantime, uh yes, of course, there's real money here. But the question is which part of this has the market not discounted yet?
news anymore. >> We're moving on to bonds here. Uh rate hike odds are going up today again. Fourth day in a row height odds have gone up >> today. Especially like ZN is fine. ZB ZB
>> but they're both down. Dollar's up. Gold is still going up. So I know we want to probably very excited about how this relationship's unfolding. But ZN here >> I unfortunately uh gosh I couldn't get filled on a ZV position earlier today as
it was breaking down. ZV chart is very annoying. I wanted the 111 110. It wasn't filled. I could still do it now. It's not really great risk-to-reward. I'd have to keep looking. I'd have to keep reaching a little bit here. And I
probably want to go out a little bit more to 66. I guess more to 66. I guess 110 108 Ilia, here's the thing. This is now a lower low here in ZB. Yes. That's the
>> Right. So, if there was ever a place >> that would be the part [laughter] that's difference if I held the position from yesterday because it was it got I was able to flip it for max profit. Um but the but the new one I wish I'd have been
another like nine ticks already. I digress. Uh maybe I'll find something a breakdown is the point I'm getting at which is why I'm still fishing here. It I'm gonna go to this 4 hour chart. I'm going to look at the recent low here 110
trying to defend it, but it's starting to leak through now as we get into our >> Yeah, >> there's this is probably the place where by the way, folks, inflation's still in
that inflation is making its way through the system. Even if oil's at 70 or it has a brief jump to 85 or so, >> inflation's in the system. >> And by the way, we did get another jump in oil today, up uh over two%. We have.
>> Which which, you know, I'm not mad at. That's cool. But but I don't like what what the bonds are doing here. Uh this is this is not are doing here. Uh this is this is not great. Um I still have tons of time on
my call verticals, but they're at the long end. And the long end is not >> no, >> I am given pause
to just go directly and take it off. There goes >> Well, you know how you feel about gold? It's like, well, if gold isn't falling up, then what happens? It's a kind of, you know, it's kind of like a beach ball
>> right? I mean, I like gold obviously, attention again after today. But like, don't that's kind of how I feel about know rates are doing that and the Russell's still going up then what
happens when those things come off right you right I mean the I guess the key difference for me is why they come off if they come off because we need to be
talking about rate cuts because the economy is choking on the AI buildout economy is choking on the AI buildout and the inflation that it's generating that environment. But let's see. I do like that gold seems
to be following the the playbook that I've following the the playbook that I've been working from. This idea that when gold stopped falling even though oil was surging, that to me, as you know, I've
>> Yeah. >> That for me was a tell. And so I started buying. I started buying silver. I started buying gold even as I stay long
oil because I think the the dynamics of the war trade here are changing. And so the war trade here are changing. And so I like this. Um I'm long. Let's go. I don't like that the bonds don't seem to want to play long, but I'm going to hang
want to play long, but I'm going to hang my hat on ZN holding and see if I can't I think this is gold is my worst thing today on the follow page right now. Um, so it's it's not working for me. I'm still in Moz. I never got, you know, I
contract in here. And the position is sitting at a break even just above the one month moving average. Ilia, my game plan here has not changed. Uh, 411.47
we have not seen since the middle of May. A two-month downtrend is ending. I could not get in when we got that move through 58. We were talking about this about that more a little bit later. If we can get a pullback into 58, I might
>> Okay. >> Yes. >> For copper. Hey, have you noticed that copper here is like no nowhere close to a 20% pullback from highs like gold, silver 30, 40,
50%. This is f I just name all of the bearish is copper doing this? And it kind of like I got out of a position recently
like a total idiot that I didn't roll it forward. Why is this not compelling to forward. Why is this not compelling to you? If if if copper's able to be at 655 despite Fed hikes, a weak Chinese economy and and the metals melting.
>> God, a weak Chinese economy. So weak. >> What does that say about copper? It feels like that maybe we've been looking past this for far too long. >> Maybe uh at this point it's in the middle of the of of this congestion
that's been there basically since the beginning of uh the year. If you put a horizontal line at the high you can kind of see it. Um and so for me this is kind of like okay well let's see because the riskreward I think is a
little iffy now. If it pulls back or it breaks, I'll become much more >> Ilia, one last quick thought here. Uh, with those yields going up, we have a for a fourth day in a row. We >> the stuff that we've been looking at in
the Canadian dollar, the euro, looking for Canadian dollar yesterday. Same thing for the euro. Edging back a little bit here. We'll cover those more I will get more into the stock conversation. And some of these names
that we're seeing in Sandis, SK Highix, Micron today, the semiconductors really truly are having a great session. Micron up 12.3% right now. Ilia back earnings in the 972. Yeah, Alphabet, Tesla, they're coming up tomorrow, but we're
Tasty Live. We'll be back in about 90 seconds, 2 minutes time. Uh more live trading ahead. Tom Preston TP coming up next.
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reference points. We'll see you guys later. going. I make $4.97 every second that I work. And if I don't
going to go crazy. >> Okay. >> It's a cute dress. Where'd you get it? >> Oh, thank you. H&M >> That's pretty good. >> Probably not worth more than $4. No,
things. Everything has value. >> Well, not everything has value. >> I am pretty sure I can name a couple of things that don't have value. >> Okay. U caution. >> 5 cents.
>> That's a sad one. $12. >> I have a toughy for you. >> What about us? >> Me and you. >> Yeah. Did we have a price? >> Yeah. Two cents. We should have sold
>> Two cents. >> Yeah. We could have made a lot of money on that one. Oops. two cents. street. >> Exactly. I think that's more on you than
it is on me. Lord knows I'm trying. Hey, you know everywhere. Take you for instance. Look at you. You're a young buck. What are you like 37? I'm joking. How old are you?
>> With your genetic makeup. You know, you're not putting on too much weight. eggs of yours and make quite a profit online. But I wouldn't wait too long. time. Especially if they keep eating the way you're eating. I got to take off. H
>> Are you serious? >> Yeah. Hey, look. Can you get the check on this? I left my wallet in the car. I don't like to carry around bulky things. It slows me down. [bell]
time to put some trades on. I'm Tom Preston and let's see what the S&Ps are doing right now. And why why do I even bother looking at this? Up 65 bucks. Um they were up about 38 when I was on the show with with Mike and Jamal earlier
today. Liz Deerking was betting on a rally. I was betting they were gonna drop. Um, I was wrong. Liz was right. Good for her. That's awesome. What I did for a trade, um, around nine o'clock, I put on in the zero DTE SPXs.
Um, I it was an unbalanced unbalanced butterfly. I bought the uh 74 butterfly. I bought the uh 74 7430 put. Sold two of the 7450s
7430 put. Sold two of the 7450s and bought one of the 7460s. Did that for a 60cent credit and I bought the embedded short 7430 7440
put vertical back for 15 cents. I got I got partial fills. It took me a while to get the size I had it on done. Um, it came spitting through in about 20 came spitting through in about 20 minutes, but I got filled total right
before noon. So, for 2 and 1/2 hours worth of taking risk, not bad. So, what I'm left with, so I sold, put the unbalanced butterfly on for 60, bought the embedded short put spread for 15. So, I have that butterfly on for a
45cent credit. Not bad. Um, that butterfly is worthless right now. Um, it's just it's with the with the index at 7509. Yeah. Yeah, I mean we have 2 hours for it to crash 60 points. Maybe that would be that would help. That
would help. Unchanged on the SPX would help that butterfly, but right now it is absolutely you worthless. I'm not even going to bother putting an order in to sell it. Uh if we're a little bit closer, I I would, but it's not worth it
at this point. Let's get into trading. Um, one of the stocks that popped up on Um, one of the stocks that popped up on a scanner I have, uh, where I look for the stocks with the biggest standard deviation price changes. In other words,
you have a point change, stock moves up or down a dollar. You have percent change, stock moves up or down 1 2%. Standard deviation change, uh, moves 1, two, three standard deviations. Um, Hallebertton really got smoked today.
Hallebertton really got smoked today. Down 5.88%. It was like two standard deviations, I think, something like that. Um, they had earnings before the before the open and apparently they beat the number, but the market didn't like
whatever their forecasts were. I really don't care. All I know is the stock did not respond positively to whatever the news was. Um, and it goes back to the story when I was traed at the board of trade in the in the bonds bond options,
you know, it's if you gave us the unemployment number the day before, we would have no idea which way bonds would move. Okay, it's [laughter] like I don't know, you know, comes out good, they go down, comes out good, they go go up, you
know. So, same thing with Hallebertton, same thing with earnings. And as a trader, I like to trade some earning stocks just if if if the opportunities present themselves, but it's not my bread and butter. That SPX stuff is how
I generate most of my profits. But that's it. That's it's it's a whole mish mash of stuff that I have on. Let's take a look what's going on in Hallebertton. [clears throat] Um so Hallebertton, this is a chart of Hallebertton. Um gapped
bit. [sighs and gasps] Ivy rank 40%. I wouldn't pay too much attention to that right now. The volatility came off. This is the chart of volatility. And I can zoom in a little bit here
um to see a little bit closer. It came off a little bit as to be expected. Earnings come out and they suck the ball right out of it. But um 31 days, let's take a look at the liquidity. It's not bad.
The 32 puts, you know, 86.94 6 cents wide. It's hella burn for Pete's sake. It's not the most. I mean, yeah, it's traded 21 million shares. That's think, with earnings. Let's go to the charts again and look at the actual
charts again and look at the actual volume. Yeah, volume is usually maybe usually, I don't know, maybe half of what it is today. But Albert Burton's a what it is today. But Albert Burton's a major stock, very liquid stock. Um, the
bid ask spreads in these things, it varies 7 cents, 13 cents. this 200 2,290 uh uh contracts open open interest is interesting. Um stocks at 33. Let's
check the skew down. Let's go down two points to uh 31 puts are at 60. Uh up two points, 35 calls are at 72. Skew is pointed to the upside for [snorts] what it's worth. Again, that's not it doesn't say the stock is going up. It just means
the market, the option market is pricing risk to the upside. So, let's just say we agree with that. Let me see if I get the 55 put. Uh what are the metrics on the 55 put. Uh what are the metrics on this thing? Uh 84% probability of making
half of its $55 max profit. So about 20 27 bucks or something like that. Um before expiration generates a $182 of theta versus $459 of buying power. In
fact, let's take a look at 1.82 82 divided by 459 is equal to 0.00 let's say 0.04. So that's 4/10 of a percent uh return daily uh return on
theta return on capital. I like that. Let's see if we can get it at 57. Let's see 57. Let's see if somebody bites filled filled to 57. All right, moving along. Um watch list. So, Nike is
along. Um watch list. So, Nike is another Nike. Do I have any Nike sneakers? I don't think I don't know if I do or not. Um, think I don't know if I do or not. Um, I'm not a big sports kind of clothing
guy. Um, I don't usually wear sneakers out on the ranch only because it's a little I mean, I can, it's just a little too dangerous sometimes. A lot of a lot of heavy machinery, things that can fall on me. I don't want to lose my foot. Um
anyway, Nike has been pummeled. Nike had earnings uh last week and just get clobbered. The nobody likes Nike anymore except it's basically been flat for the
past couple of months. Uh let's check the volatility skew. Um stocks at 4315. It's close enough to 43. Let's go down two points. 41 puts are at 90. 45 calls
at 120. skew looks like it's pointed north to me. Um, let's see what the let's see what the 40 halves the 40 half numbers are. If I sell this at 76 again, higher theta, that's pretty good.
So, an 87% probability of making half it max profit about 30 38 bucks or so uh before 31 days. So this is the number the P50 number is the number that I the P50 number is the number that I mainly base trades on mainly. Um uh
sometimes it isn't available for variety of technical reasons but the 84% I like of technical reasons but the 84% I like that number. I like it over 70 70%. I I do trades with less than 70% P50 but I like higher than 70. Uh $2.31 of theta.
$2.31 of theta divided by let's say $600 of of theta divided by let's say $600 of buying power is again 0.038. So almost4%
theta return on capital. I like that. Let's see if we get filled at 76 again. What do I know about Nike? Nothing. But we're going to put an order and see if it get filled. See if anybody wants to play. Uh General Motors that came out
with earnings today, too. And I guess things are looking up for GM. Uh, I didn't really follow the news very much. They had a I don't know. You guys can They had a I don't know. You guys can fill in um with what is going on. I can
now read the um comments in YouTube if anybody has an opinion about what's going on with GM. They're I guess they're doing some maybe write offs or something like that on their electric vehicles. I guess it it
seems to me that at least in the North American market or at least the American market, a lot of the manufacturers are moving away from the EVs. Um I know that you know VWs have trouble with them and not trouble not bad cars but you know
they're not selling. So GM is up on the day 4.76%. Um let's take a look at the the chart Um, and by the way, this is what I like to
have. I don't know if you again, I'm not a big chart person, but to get four simultaneous charts, you go up in in here, and this is on the web platform. multi-charts, and you can choose
which I can have eight. That's a little That's a little much. That's That's I'm too old to see eight symbols, but you can set up a bunch of different um different templates for charts. Kind of handy. GM
bounced off of lows. That's impressive. So, this would be I don't know, bullish, at the skew. So, they came out with earnings this morning. Go up to 31 days.
Markets are pretty tight. 7.43 million shares traded. That's 7.43 million shares traded. That's pretty typical for GM. Um markets are a little wide. Let's go down. I don't know. 38 day. No, these those
I don't know. 38 day. No, these those are worse. The weeklies are worse. Um about 17 days. Just I'm just fishing around here. No, these are even worse. around here. No, these are even worse. So, how about 3 days?
looking at is if I sell a naked put in here, this, let's say the 70 76s, here, this, let's say the 70 76s, um, $1,200, $1,250 of buying power, do I look at the max loss? Not really. Uh, of course, the max loss on that shortput is
course, the max loss on that shortput is $7,400 if GM goes to zero in 31 days. In other words, General Motors, the company loses the its entire value in 31 days loses the its entire value in 31 days and its stock is zero. Okay, I mean it's
it can happen, but you know the the likelihood of that happen is happening is kind of slim. So the max loss, yes, it's true, but the buying power effect is a little bit closer to what the um what the actual
closer to what the um what the actual risk of the position might be. So, $165 max profit, 83% probability of making half that. So, about 82 bucks versus 1,200. That's that's too much. I don't want to be spending spending this. And
and if you have a, you know, a little bit smaller account, let's say bit smaller account, let's say sub$10,000 or even sub $25,000, using $1,200 on a single $1,200 of capital on a single trade is that's a lot. you
you're sucking up a lot of using up a lot of capital um for a trade when if lot of capital um for a trade when if you balance things out. If you have each trade has a relatively small amount of capital requirement, you can put on
of capital requirement, you can put on you know 5 10 15 20 trades and do the whole trade small trade often thing uh to get the odds in your side hopefully over time. That's the goal of that strategy. But if I do, if I buy the 75
puts against it, create a short put spread and the
down one strike myself a little more room? No. Let's do the uh if you're bullish and how's the skew looking? 79 half. 79 half is in between 79 and 80 half. 79 half is in between 79 and 80 down two bucks. 77 puts at at the ask
price is 214 82 calls 236. So the skew is more to the upside. Let's try to route this out. Let's try to get 63 cents on this. It's a they're wide markets, but you know what? Let's let's give it a whirl.
Nothing ventured. Nothing gained. Filled. Filled to 63. Okay, I'll take it. How's our S&P looking? By the way, are am I getting my sell off? No, of course not. Of course not. By the way, I can't remember can't remember the last
time I actually nailed one of those butterflies. I mean, what drives those unbalanced butterflies is the embedded short vertical. Don't think it's the butterfly. I don't see it as trading a
butterfly. I have I see it as trading a short put spread in that example. Um, if the butterfly the butterfly is a lottery ticket, that's it. And I I don't play the lottery, but you know, last time I won on an SPX butterfly has been years.
Um, let's go into our watch list again. Uh, so Hallebertton, Nike, GM, one of the one of the symbols, what's one of the things going on, and I don't know if you've heard, probably have heard a lot of the tariffs going on with Canada, uh,
of the tariffs going on with Canada, uh, President Trump is wants to put a 50% tariff on Canadian goods and stuff and lumber and some concrete or whatever it is. all the stuff that we love from Canada, our our friends to the north.
What it sucks, but you know, it's it is what it is. Um I'm not president. Maybe someday I will be. If you all vote for me, I would appreciate it. But um until that time, we're stuck with these stuck with the tariffs. Um chart for 6C
sold off today. Is that the reason why? Well, I guess. I mean, I don't really follow the Canadian interest rates so much. With the pressure on um I want to talk about Bitcoin after this. With the pressure on um US rates, the bias to the
upside, um it's going to make the dollar stronger and the dollar is generally stronger today with the exception of the Aussie dollar. Let's go in. Aussie dollar. Let's go in. Let's go to the watch list. Um let's go
to futures. Futures with options. So, you have where are my little currencies? Here we go. The yen is down. I'm short a put spread in the yen. That's that's losing money today. The Aussie dollar is up.
The British pound is down. The euro is down. The Canadian the Canadian dollar is down. Um, so the dollar is generally stronger today. Um, and if you look at bonds, let's look at CB. CB is down. you know,
interest rates are interest rates are climbing up in the in the longer term of climbing up in the in the longer term of the yield curve. Um, notes are down. Um, the yield curve. Um, notes are down. Um, let's go to ZC again. Oops. Oh, not CC
6C. Sorry. Um, may want to take a look. I don't know. We'll see if we have time. look at wheat or something like that. Let's go to the um trade page for Let's go to the um trade page for Canadian dollar. Uh let's see here.
Let's see here. Last price and this is going at I'm trading trading the September contract. September contract 7160.
Let's take a look at the skew 71 and it's right in between 717 and 7110. Right in between here. So if I go down uh let's say two points up here to 18 up two points 713 18 it's balanced. There's no the skew is the
balanced. There's no the skew is the skew is balanced. Um what do I get for a short call spread in here? I assume it's I don't know if it's if it's still trading. Might not be. Might might have closed. Um but $40 of profit versus $160
max risk. Not bad. Let's tighten it up a little bit. Um 50 versus one. Let's Let's ship it. Let's see if it's Let's see if it's still open. Let's see if it's still open.
Working. Nothing done nothing on Canada. Um you could do an iron condor in there, we thought it was going to trade in a range, but I'm just kind of bearish. I just think there's downward pressure on a lot of these other currencies. Upward
pressure on the dollar, for example. The tariff won't help. interest rates rising tariff won't help. interest rates rising in the US won't help. Um, so that's again that's my that's as much macro analysis as I actually do. Let's go back
to our watch list. Let's go to the cherry bomb watch list. I set this up cherry bomb watch list. I set this up before I get on air. So, Cliff Natural Resources or Cleveland Cliffs, excuse me. Cleveland Cliff Cliffs [snorts] CLF
me. Cleveland Cliff Cliffs [snorts] CLF Cleveland Cliff is I believe it's a um it's a uh steel company I believe. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong on that. Um oh thank you TP for president.
at some point I think in the next week or so um BBB fine said TP do address your positions just keep trading. I I'm I I I'm in and out of a lot of stuff during the day. So, I close some things. I can't necessarily wait until I do this
segment to close positions. If I see that 50% profit, I take it, move on. Um at Wolf, for example. Wolf has been a horrible loser. Did that trade 10 days ago, sold a put vertical and they're going to sign on the short put. It's
losing money. So, I sold a call against it. It's a wheel trade, even though I I don't necessarily think Wolf is a great great stock for that. But, um, they're coming out. CLF is coming out with earnings on July 23rd.
What is this? What is CLF? Down 12 million shares traded. So, it's coming out in the next couple of days. Let's check the skew. Should we do
Let's check the skew. Should we do Should we do a pre-earnings trade? Let's see. 929. So, it's in between 9 and 9 and a half. Let's go down half a point to the 850 puts, up half a point to the 10 calls. So, the 850 puts are at
to the 10 calls. So, the 850 puts are at 24. The 10 calls are at 30. So, the skews point to the upside in CLF. Should we do a shortterm we do a shortterm naked shortp put in CLF? What does the
winner trades be on follow as soon as I can? Um, thank you, Grumpy Mike. Yeah, steel and mining. Got to love steel. Got I I I love steel. I'm learning how to weld and or at least I'm teaching myself how to weld. I'm not very good at it,
but the cheaper steel, I always appreciate it. Let's do Let's sell a naked short put in here. Let's just see what happens. Um, again, $228 of buying what happens. Um, again, $228 of buying power requirement for $7. $720 cents a
huge number. Let's ship it. Enough talk. Less talk, more trading. Um, let's go into let's go let's look at Bitcoin. I This is This is interesting. I bet I have a few more minutes left here. I
I have a few more minutes left here. I bet uh is the ETF that tracks Bitcoin. Um and it's been it's been rallying a little bit. I was talking to Mike and Jal this morning. What's interesting about Bitcoin is yeah, when when the the
shooting war started over in Iran back in late March, early April, Bitcoin got crushed. It was not what I thought it would. I thought it would be maybe a, would. I thought it would be maybe a, you know, a safe haven for wealth. It
turned out not to be the case. I was wrong. Um, and the problem with it is it doesn't earn any interest. So, if interest rates in the US are, if they do increase interest rates, um, that makes Bitcoin a
little less attractive just in general. But, they're coming out with this, what's the phrase? I think it's called the Clarify Act. I heard um, Bessant talking about it today. It would sort of sort out who's in charge of this crypto
stuff, whether it's the I think it's the SEC and CFTC and all that and and and it's just the the regulatory thing. Not the biggest fan of the regulatory agencies. I know I know why they exist. I they they help protect the individual
of it. Make sure that is a fair and orderly market. I am all for that. But sometimes they're a little behind the curve. Um, in any case, I don't really know much about this clarify act, but it's it's IBIT is up today probably
because of that. That probably is a is an is the reason why. Let's go and sell. an is the reason why. Let's go and sell. I don't know. Let's check the skew. 37 half is our price. Let's go down two points. 35 half is at 80. 39 half is 88.
Skew is little pointed to the upside. How much are they charging? No, that's too high. So, $1,300 too expensive. Let's do a vertical 24. Let's pull this Let's do a vertical 24. Let's pull this up. I'm looking for clear it out. 36 35
33 cents. Let's drag this down to the 34s. 58. 34s. 58. Let's do this.
this at 58. See if it get filled. Bullish on IBIT. Let's look at Coin. Coin is the biggest um uh crypto exchange.
They and they obviously are up today on that news too when it basically follows Bitcoin. Um I have a trade loaded up. I have a short put spread loaded up in here. 3 days to go. The nice thing about uh coin when are its earnings coming
out? Let me minimize this. Earnings is coming out on the 30th. If we can get in coming out on the 30th. If we can get in here before that the 72 half stocks trading at 78 right in between here down 2 and 1/2 up 2 and a half sku's pointed
to the upside a little bit little bit maybe um you could sell the the 7275 put spread for a dollar credit let's try it for 3 days
ship it so what have we done today let's go in activity filled on coin coin. Nothing done yet on IBIT that I can tell. So, done yet on IBIT that I can tell. So, we've coin working IBIT working CLF
working uh Canada dollar and I'll probably just cancel this stuff if I'm not filled. Fine. They don't want to play. Um Phil and GM working uh Nike and uh filled on Halburn. Let's check our Nike trade.
Let's see what I can get for it. 70. I'm at 76. 73. Let's offer it at 74. See if somebody bites. Did I get filled? Filled a 74. All right. That's not bad. All right. So, that's Let me do a quick count. So, Phil
that's Let me do a quick count. So, Phil on one Nike Coin, on one Nike Coin, GM, Hallebertton. We did four trades. We might get filled on a couple other of these things. IBIT might get filled. Um
CLF might get filled. May I may work uh that trade on on CLF a little bit, but that's how that is the process I use to find trades and the the speed with which I go through symbols. Am I an expert on any of these things? No. But I know
option markets anyway. None of this is a trade recommendation. If you do decide to trade this on your own, that's fine. But please don't take any more risk than But please don't take any more risk than you are comfortable with.
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myself. should know [music] that I was >> I'm Jim Schultz. This is from Theory to Practice. Welcome to the show today. to the Tuesday edition of what it is that we are trying to do. I'm so glad
that you guys are here because it is a taco Tuesday, right? I'm having tacos, you're having tacos, we're all having tacos, and the market loves it. So, are here. If you're watching over on the Tasty Live Network, I would actually
can join the conversation and join the discussion and communicate with your program. Man, you can celebrate if you are a taco fan. You can celebrate if you're an enchilada fan, you can celebrate if you are indeed a bull. But
if you are a bear, you can commiserate with your fellow brethren. But I can you might be on, it will be a good time had by some. And don't forget, your most important job today is to pop into the chat and pump that algo, man. Questions,
comments, stories, and jokes. Put them all in there because I want to know and the algorithm is dying dying to know. So, go ahead, Ben. Bring us into the market, man. Let's have a little look see what's happening out there. The S&P
is up 59. There you go. Risk-free instrument, also known as the NASDAQ futures, extremely high-risk product, up 541 on a day like today. You got the boomers doing some boomer things up 355 and then you've got
the Russell 3000 almost back to 3000 up 37 on the day technically of course it's the Russell 2000 but not on the streets it's definitely the Russell 3000 bonds down 11 notes down eight got oil up a couple of bucks you got UB40 down a
little bit you got the shifties out there man let's celebrate like it's 1999 or I'm sorry let's party like it's 1999 I definitely botched that one uh gold up 71 Hunt brothers out there. I got to imagine
I got to imagine they're doing pretty well. Yeah. Up $2.15 back up to 59. So silver is up, gold is up, the shifties are excited, the Hunt brothers are down, got the euro is down, you got volatility futures down 47, got spa
volatility futures down 47, got spa volatility, the old VIX down a $152. I mean, it's still at 17. So being down $152 as a volatility premium seller, not positions. Obviously for your current positions that are short Vega, a
volatility collapse like this today is going to help those positions, but this is not necessarily going to give you a ton of new opportunity uh down the uh down the shoots for any new trades that you might be looking to do. But still,
dropping to 17 is really not that bad. Like again, it wasn't that long ago. I mean, it was back to 15, I think. Did we even get did we get to 14? Did we get to a 14 handle on the VIX in the last couple of weeks? Let's have a little
couple of weeks? Let's have a little look see and let's consult the daily VIX all the way down to a low. Oh, look at that. We did it, guys. I'm going to leave my mouse right there. This is not my opinion. This is not subjective
my opinion. This is not subjective conjecture. This is an object an object objectifiable. No, objective and verifiable. And I went with objectifiable. This is an objectifiable fact that you can see on
objectifiable fact that you can see on the daily VIX chart. We got down to 1496 about a week and a half ago on July 10th. And so, man, being down a $150 to 10th. And so, man, being down a $150 to 1710 is really really not too bad uh
when it could be a whole lot worse. And so, okay. So, let's go ahead and let's see how the portfolio is doing today. Uh the market commentary phase of the show is over. Did it make you a better trader? No. Was it fun that we did it?
Not really. But at least it's over and we can move on. And so if I look at my see you guys already putting in work, man, you guys are doing it. John Coington is here. EMTT Morrison is here. Prop Trader Sam L Griffin Jones Ranch
Prop Trader Sam L Griffin Jones Ranch Ashin E Media PointB Ryan LP Ryan ZN3. Man, I see all you guys. Wolf Wolf is here. Mark Denu is here. and the core position is in the house. And so, all right, so let's go. Let's take a look at
what's going on in the uh in the portfolio. So, number one and number two, you know, I mean, we could take a couple of victory laps on MBS and MQ, I think, right? I mean, this isn't like a Boston Red Sox 14 game winning streak
type of victory lap, but it's a victory lap in its own right going for number 15 here tonight. And uh I mean, my autumn was asking me like, "What are we doing today? Like, would you have anything going on?" has to have a lot going on.
From 7 to 10, I'm going to be unavailable. And by unavailable, I mean zero communication. I don't want to hear a whisper. I don't want to hear a single thing. I'm going to be locked in going for number 15 tonight against the
Baltimore Orioles. You got Ranger Suarez coming off the the DL or the IIL, think he's coming off the IIL, coming from the DL, the down low. And uh maybe he'll uh maybe he'll get us to number 15 there. Anyway, that'll be uh tonight.
But if you look at MNQ and MEES, it may not be Red Sox worthy, but it's a victory lap in its own right. You can see MEES, we're back to about a scratch. Nobody takes [laughter] Nobody takes a victory lap on a scratch
position better than a Dr. J. And so we are [laughter] actually just I thought it was up more when I was getting ready for the show and as I was just saying that I'm like that is like a legitimate scratch. And
bases, man. And not even quickly. Like this is a slow trot around the bases on a green scratch. Nobody does it better, man. Nobody does it better when it comes to taking victory laps on trades you should not be even talking about. Uh
actually up uh we're up a little bit on the trade. Uh having a nice day today. Obviously, the taco Tuesday has saved us. Uh it has saved us before. It will save us again, I'm sure, next Tuesday. And so yeah, so MES will sit tight.
of room between, you know, a strike price of 7350, the stock price of 75.45 and we're just we're in a really really good spot when it comes to uh this
nothing and uh and then that is uh that is that. Okay, so that's MEES. So, now [clears throat] MNQ, if I go to uh if I go to MNQ, give me one second here. If I go to MNQ, give me one second here. If I go to MNQ,
Okay, there we go. If I go to MNQ, this guy we're doing much better on. So, this is actually potentially victory lap worthy right now. Again, have we closed we're going to get two, three, maybe seven days of content out of this one
position before it's even closed. And so, right here, MNQ, you can see our strike is 28,400 and the stock is at 29,300. So, we have about 900 points of room between where the stock is and where the
do? You guys already know the answer to this question. What is our number one favorite strategy? What is our default setting strategy? What do we do better setting strategy? What do we do better than anybody else? Nothing at all. Not a
anything with this position. There's no reason to, in my opinion. It's already doing what you have politely asked it to uh politely asked it to do. So, just let it cook, let it simmer, and just go live your life, right? The glutes aren't
going to pump themselves, right? They're going to need you to take an active role in getting that pump done. So, go get it done and let this guy just kind of sit and uh and work in uh in your favor. So, for me, we sit tight. For MNQ, we sit
for me, we sit tight. For MNQ, we sit tight. And now, if I go to uh let's see I got a couple of couple of questions coming in. We'll do the surprise and delight first and then we'll get to the uh the questions that Laura is bringing
us. So Laura Laura has man Ben Laura you guys are amazing. Laura's added a whole new element to the show. So we have me surprising and delighting you guys. But we also have speaking of coming up from the down low. We also have Laura
because if you follow the show for any length of time, you know that when I get to the questions portion of the show, I typically go back to the beginning and I again, you can check poly market yourself. This is not my opinion. This
expected move on the number of questions I get to per show is between 0.8 and 0.85. And so if you happen to like catch the show late or tune in later or whatever and just put your question kind of downstream, you might feel like the
question is very very low. And it may still be somewhat low, but now it's a lot further above zero than it was because a lower coming up clutch with the reverse inverted surprise and delight. And uh and there you go. All
delight. And uh and there you go. All right. So, there's MEES, there's MNQ. Uh oh, man. We wow. We have so much to do, guys. Wow. This is crazy, man. How long halfway through the intro. Like, this is
not this is not good. So, first and foremost, Alcoa. So, for Alcoa, we are in a situation where we have a winning trade on our hands. We actually did it, trade on our hands. We actually did it, guys. We cheated death and we sold a
take this guy off for a little bit of a profit. Now, it's not a huge profit. We're only talking about a $122. All right? But that's a$122 in the options world, which is $122 in the actual world. So, that's not too bad. And we
are beyond 50% of max profit. So when it comes to just kind of you know standardizing everything in terms of you know what you sold it for and you know it has to have economic significance in an absolute sense of course but if we
and just say hey when I sell something for two bucks I'm not looking to take that thing to expiration and get the full $2. Like I'm pretty happy if I get a dollar out of it. If I get a$120$125 I'm super happy with that trade. I'm not
going to go for any more than that. So for Alcoa here we're going to take this guy off and uh and move on. So, this is actually the only official victory lap that we should take on the show. And of course, it will be our shortest amount
of commentary. So, if I go ahead and I close this guy close this guy down done with Alcoa. That is uh that is all she wrote. So, if I go to Alcoa, let's see if I can buy it back for a
All right, we got Phil. So, there you go. Perfect. Okay, so there is a dollar3 Alco. Okay, number two. I do want to point out that we bought a put diagonal
spread this morning on Inside the Trade. So again, inside the trade, 10 o'clock Eastern, 9:00 Central, you get to see Dr. Jim putting on a trade right after earning season, so not doing a ton of individual stocks. Not yet, at least.
Tomorrow we are going to have obviously lots of earnings trades. I think Google and um hold on, let's just look. It's Google for sure. But then who else is tomorrow? It's somebody else, too. Let me go to uh
you maybe have heard of before. A little IBM, small little company out of Silicon Valley, IBM, and then Tesla, maybe you've heard of Tesla, TSLA. I think they're doing some pretty incredible things in terms of our voyage to Mars
one day. And so Google, IBM, Tesla, those guys are all going to be tomorrow man, tomorrow's going to have to be inside the trades, right? I think we're shoots for uh for these earnings. Well, actually, I don't want to do that
myself, right? Because I've got inside the trade in the morning. I've got from so, we'll probably do one in the morning for inside the trade and then we'll do the other two in the afternoon for from theory to practice because again, every
single day your boy needs that watch time, right? Morning, noon, and night. I got to have it. Like, I'm desperate for it. And so, inside the trade from theory with one earnings trade in the morning and then a couple in the uh the
earlier today. I'm not going to rehash this because you can go back and check just want to point out just in case you haven't seen inside the trade uh or you didn't see it this morning. Uh this was kind of the newcomer in the portfolio
that appears to be uh the latest trade on the books because it is the latest trade on the books. So that is uh that is the that is the diamonds I meant to say. But guys, look, it finally happened. So look at Netflix, guys. Look
what happened. We did it. And by we did it, I mean it got done to us. We finally got assigned. So it finally happened. So we were holding that in the money short put in Netflix, right? We've had this trade on for uh it's been probably maybe
And I've said all along cuz we sold the in the money put and when we sold it, it was only like a couple dollars in the money. It was like a 90 put or whatever. And I want to say Netflix was like, you know, maybe 88 or 87 or something like
like it was right there kind of on the razor's edge, but then Netflix just crashed, boom banged, went down beneath our put and it's been in the money the entire time. And so, you know, when we put this trade on, like everything was
just, you know, all fine and all dandy. But now the put was, you know, significantly in the money for most of the life of this trade. And so when you have an in the money option, the likelihood that you are assigned rises,
right? Whenever you sell any option, the probability that you are assigned on that option is never zero. It's always some positive number. But the reality is if it's out of the money, the likelihood that you're assigned is very, very low.
Because if the other side assigns you on an outofthe-oney option, look, you just got a windfall profit. Like you just got a true legitimate arbitrage situation that was just handed to you, dropped in your lap. So that's not going to happen
money, it's a different ballgame. Now, now all of a sudden it's like, hey, the Sox have won 10 in a row. The Red Sox have won 14 in a row. Things are very different now. And so for our Netflix in the money short put, we've been in the
money for probably three or four weeks now. But the entire time, uh, we've been been saying, hey, we've got enough extrinsic value. I'm not worried about it. I don't really think we're going to be assigned A, but also B. This is so
stock at this point. So, I'm not really too worried about assignment because buying power or whatever, but it's like I'm going to have the same risk parameters on the position after assignment as to what I have on the
The risk in the trade is literally not the other day, I think it was just yesterday actually, we were looking at know, make some sense of what happened after earnings, the super butterfly and
know, and all the cash that we just set ablaze there for uh for Friday. The exttrinsic value in this Netflix in the money short put was essentially zero. In fact, I think if you go back and check the tapes, it was quite literally zero.
And so all of a sudden the exttrinsic value shield is gone, the exttrinsic value, you know, kind of defense mechanism to ward off the potential longside exercising is just not there. And so whenever the extrinsic value runs
down to zero or let's say under I mean if it's under 10 cents or under a nickel let's say anything between zero and a nickel we'll call that zero that you're going to be assigned even more because now if the long side chooses to
uh exercise and assign you that option they're not losing out on anything the event of an assignment? They lose the extrinsic value. Well if there is no exttrinsic value they're literally not losing anything. And so that's why when
likelihood of assignment starts to climb and rise with just how deep in the money you might be. And so we are now long 100 shares in Netflix. Now, what am I going to do? And you can even see right here that we were assigned at 90. So it was a
90 short, but the memory is on point. The blueberry intake is incredibly frozen stuff. We're doing the fresh stuff. We're doing the organic stuff. We're doing the jet fuel laden stuff. We're hitting it from all angles. And so
we got uh assigned at 90. We bought the shares at 90. It is currently sitting at 67. What am I going to do? I'm not going to do anything. I'm going to sit tight this this may have to be this may have to be our new evolution of Starbucks,
it went away because I had to ghost y'all because of Eli's ninja tournament, El Amelia being sick and all that kind of stuff. And so we let the Starbucks that thing is gone and just floating off
have to be the new Starbucks. And so, what do you do when you sell a put in a stock? This is going to be a situation that has happened to many of you or will happen to many of you. You sell a put in a stock that you actually don't mind the
long-term prospects of the stock. Okay? You sell a put, crash, moon bank. You So, what do you do? Well, you just hold the put. You hold the put for a while. like stock. Blah blah blah blah. All the things we've already said. Okay.
comes, you've been assigned. Now, what do you do? Well, a lot of times in this situation, there's effect there's effectively two pathways forward through the forest. Number one, you kind of do the wheel type of strategy where now
I get assigned, I take the stock, I start selling calls against the stock. start the process over again, and it just goes round and round like a wheel. Hence the name, the wheel strategy. That's a great approach. That's a great
blah blah blah blah. Love that strategy. Love the idea of that strategy. I don't necessarily do wheels too often myself, but I love the structure and I love the, and just using premium in a very strategic way. But one thing you want to
be a little bit careful about, I'll even show you guys this right now. When you go to wheel something, you need to be very mindful of what is my basis on the trade. Like for instance, if I go into the August cycle, I'm just going to
position on in October and I don't really want to muddy the waters for the purposes of what we're doing uh right here. But if I go into August, so we know because the trade page told us so that I was assigned at 90 on this trade.
Generally speaking, especially for something longer term, right? Again, the key here is longer term. Want to sell calls above my basis. I want to sell calls that are above whatever my basis is on the position.
Now, the basis could be your just legitimate purchase price. That's fine. It could also be your purchase price, you know, uh with any credits or debits you've collected or paid along the way.
that basis and you're like, "Yeah, I bought the stock for 90, you know, three and a half years ago or in 1989, but now I've collected, you know, $40 worth of premium, so it's like I've only, you know, paid $50 for the stock or
whatever." You can go either way. I think it's fine to effectively look at your basis on the trade in either capacity. But for us here, it's actually basis. We just haven't had this trade on for long enough to accumulate lots of
credits and debits. Kind of like the Starbucks situation. So for Netflix Starbucks situation. So for Netflix here, I know that my basis is 90. In fact, the platform even helps me. Look at that. They even tell us, Jim,
this is where your basis is. Again, if you didn't even know what my position was. If you just looked at the option chain and you said, man, that's a really bad position to have. That's my position. If you if you looked at the
glad I don't have that position. That's my position. And so if you look at if you look at Netflix here, I'm long at the 90 strike uh effectively uh and I bought the shares at 90. So if I'm going to sell something above 90, then I'm in
a situation where I'm selling a 93 strike for 7 cents. I'm selling a 91 that. That doesn't make any sense. Why would I c my upside for literally sense. I don't want to sell it below my
basis because then if it does rally back now I'm really in the lurch and I don't the option? Well, it's the other pathway forward through the forest which in my opinion you can just hold the shares. There is no rule against that like there
is no you know guideline that you are violating like you can just hold the naked long crusty old shares and just put them in your sock drawer and go live your life. Like keep the clean delta to the upside. keep the keep the clean
exposure to the upside. So that way if Netflix does rally back, you get that move one for one with the rally and then if Netflix climbs out of the seller and it's, you know, 73 or 77 or heaven forbid 80, 82, now maybe we look to sell
some premium. And so that's my general playbook when it comes to uh short puts that go in the money. You know, we could roll out and down. Yeah. Well, we well but we already did that with the other position and uh yeah, so that's how I
think about this Netflix assignment and hopefully that uh that helps um a little a little bit uh for you guys out there. Okay, so let's go ahead and let me see surprises and delights. Man, that is some good stuff. So, let's go ahead and
um let me go ahead and surprise and delight somebody in the chat. So, okay, I got I see my man too much delta. Hey, Dr. Jim, an IBM earnings call butterfly question mark or kind of
pondering face emoji style. And the answer is you got to watch tomorrow. But going to frown myself again, right? You got to watch inside the trade and or because it could come your way in the morning. It could come your way in the
afternoon. You really just uh you really just don't know. And so there's a uh surprise and delight there for too much delta. But let me go to uh the surprises delta. But let me go to uh the surprises and delights from Laura first. So Laura
What's going on there E Media? I appreciate you very very much. Hey Dr. J. Why is it difficult to analyze a calendar spread by September till long-term trade we can follow like Starbucks? Okay. Well, I'll answer the
might be Netflix and so you got to stay tuned for that. But the calendar spread. So I think you mean like if you go to the actual analysis page like if I go to the trade bar like if I go to I actually just did. So you're not going to want
that. I mean we are well beyond the two months Dr. J gym level. I just want to we are I mean we were in the red zone a couple of days ago. Now we are in like the Planet Fitness lunk alarm like all
actually just did a calculated risk today. Like you'll know it when you see calculated risk today which I'm probably going to iterate tonight about calendar spreads and so e media man we are like right there we are in tune so definitely
give that guy a look but I did not address the uh the analysis tab I actually did uh I did a a calendar spread in United Healthcare or United Health Group whatever and uh so let me set this up in here this may not be the
set this up in here this may not be the exact same one but um actually it may be give away my secrets let me pick something else. Let's do uh let me do like meta. I mean, obviously the IV rank in Meta is astronomically high. So, this
is not a great candidate for a calendar spread, but I for uh for illustrated purposes, this will be fine. So, let's go to September. If I buy a 645 put and then I go to August and I sell a 645 put, man, that's
actually a really good looking calendar. Even though the IV rank is 88. I mean, look at that calendar. So, you're paying $8 for that guy when you're collecting $37 in premium in the front month. That's pretty wild stuff. But the reason
why the analysis tab can't really keep up with the calendar spread is there's you set up any strategy with multiple expiration cycles, calendar, diagonal,
poor man's cover call, poor man's cover put, whatever, you're going to be in a your pops. You're not going to see your maximum profits. You're not going to see your maximum losses. Uh, you know, zero is not correct. I don't really love the
zero there, you know? I'd much prefer like an NA. That would be better. I mean, I would even be happy with a TBD, right? I mean, I would definitely be tickled pink if they just put BEu down there, right? Any of those would be
acceptable in my opinion. But the reason why you don't see anything there is cycles, it's impossible for the option pricing models to know, you know, what are these numbers with precision. And so that's why you don't see them. You don't
see them show up. So hopefully that helps you there. Uh e media and so but Ranch is in the house with a second surprise and delay coming from Laura. It has been Amazon primed right to my doorstep. Doc, I have a winning vertical
doorstep. Doc, I have a winning vertical in USO 108 103 831 expiration. It's right at 50%. What would you do as far as rolling goes? Uh should I just I would not roll this thing at all. I would 100% take this guy off. If you're
at 50% of max profit, book the winner and then move on. If you want to trade maybe do a different strategy or whatever. I personally like to if I have then if I want to get back in that same underlying, this is just a personal
back this up. Like I can't give you a market measures. I can't give you a skinny. I can't give you an options jive. I like to wait at least a day before I get back in that underlying. Now, some traders like to they like to
working. like they actually kind of, you know, they have a short put or a short put spread and the market's rallying and they'll roll up with the actual really like that because I'm more of a contrarian trader and so looking at
things through a contrarian lens, I don't really love that strategy. And speaking of contrarian lens, is there anything more contrarian than TP rolling with the light platform on the show? I have never seen a better real time
illustration of contrarian behavior than TP rolling strong with that light platform on the platform or on the show I should say. And uh and yeah, but if I go ahead and uh if I want to do uh if I want to take off a trade because it's
worked, then I would 100% just take off the trade and I would not press it. I would not continue to try to dip into the uh the old uh the old dip there hopefully that helps you there. uh ranch. But let's see. Let's go back.
That's unbelievable. That's really, really crazy. Man, you guys, the work you guys are getting done, man. You guys must be draining banana natties left and right. Left and right. Or Denu in the house.
What is up? Hello, Dr. Dream. What is up? Second dose of Dr. Jim. What a great trading day. You are the greatest. I appreciate you. And the fact that you are cracking open a banana natty. uh because we all know that they're coming
in cans. That's a strong move on your part. That is 100% a strong move on your part. So, good job there uh or Danielu. Uh let's see. PE Leonard, thank you to TP. Yes, TP does a great job on the show before this one. Really, really awesome
job. And he's just putting in work, man. Putting in work. Point B, uh Rise and Grind Dr. J from PhD to AM trade of the day. This man's putting in more reps hear that blue breakdown. Doc, what's cooking today? Yeah, man. I mean today,
you know, we did the IBM trade earlier and then uh or not the IBM trade, but the I'm sorry, the DIA trade. I mean, when I think Boomer, I think IBM, Freudian slip there. But uh but yeah, and then we did um we did our Netflix
trade, we did our Alcoa trade. I don't really see anything new because again, tomorrow. Like we got to go ahead. We got to get the troops ready for battle tomorrow. Like today is a rest day. Like today is an off day just to kind of get
your mental game right, I think. So tomorrow we'll do lots of Google, we'll do lots of IBM and lots of uh whatever that other one was. We'll do that one thank you there point B. I appreciate you. Samuel, happy Taco Tuesday, Doc.
The most important economic report of the day, taco supply, that's correct, is stable. The ghost inventory is adequate and the algo behavior is completely irrational. That is 100% correct across the board. Uh apparently that taco
of funny because we actually are having tacos tonight. So, typically on like Sunday, uh, Autumn and I will talk about like, "Hey, what do you want to have for dinner?" Like, "Here's what I was
always work out this way, but this week it happened to be taco Tuesday on, uh, on Tuesday. And I'm like, "Well, you know, it's nothing if not fun." And so, there you go. But, uh, but BBB Fine is there. What's going on there, BBB Fine?
is in the house. Doc, offering my kids Taco Bell or Chick-fil-A for dinner. Man, you want to talk about a gotcha and a gimme, man? Let's go. their decision will let me know if there are going to be 10 delta option sellers or 35 delta
option sellers. Easy to see where they sit on the risk scale. That's true, but I'm curious how you're interpreting that. So, I'm very curious like the way you wrote that. Are you saying are you suggesting that
Are you saying are you suggesting that the 10 delta is safer than the 35 delta? actually think that your little Taco Bell Chick-fil-A scenario, it can get pretty deep, man. like we can get to some inception levels of understanding
here. I think I would actually say that the 10 delta is riskier than the 35 you may look at the probabilities. You may look at whatever and say that Jim that doesn't make any sense. But I think 10 delta might still be okay. You get to
56 delta. I definitely feel that way. But uh but yeah, I would actually kind of say in your little fictitious world, 35 delta is uh the Chick-fil-A and uh 10 what you meant. I'm actually curious. Let me know in the chat because the algo
the algo really really wants to know. Point B, will Netflix be your new you clearly explained the mechanics behind it. Uh the explanation you gave on Starbucks was instrumental for me on how to manage and trade short puts. Man,
look at you. Point B, man. Or you point B. I'm going to send you guys all that cash that we talked about for you guys planting these comments on the stream at this very time. I've got plants everywhere, man. Everywhere. Now, now I
wouldn't necessarily wait by the mailbox, but it is on route. It is in transit. And so, yes, Netflix will be the new Starbucks. Markets moving, the house. What is going on there, Ryan? Uh, day five. Dr. Jim, I think I know
what a put is. Thanks, man. You're welcome. If you're kind of new there, Ryan, man, you're in a good spot. You are 100% in a good spot. And so, stick practice, inside the trade, uh, whatever else might be coming on down the shoots,
just I appreciate you, man, so very much. And if I can ever help, like my pleasure to help you however I can. Uh you can find me on the Twitter or the X, whatever they call it. I'm J. Schultz F3 or we can uh you can shoot me an
email. I'm just J Schultz@tastylive.com. favorite ghost energy flavor. Dr. J, man. Just serving me up the whiffle
man. Just serving me up the whiffle balls. two, and a three. I go I go back and forth between which one of these three is in the top slot, but they are all clearly head and shoulders above the
rest. Sour Pink Lemonade, Sour Green Apple, and the original. Now, the Seven Up is an honorable mention, but it doesn't have the longevity yet. It hasn't put in the reps yet. Like, it's the new kid with the high VO that
I got to kind of go with the tried and true. Like, I got to dance with who's sour pink lemonade and sour green apple and then original. You can go with any one of the three and they will be uh they will be absolutely amazing. And so,
account based on the account Greeks and what do you like to keep the ratio between delta theta and extrinsic uh extrinsic of your account? Can you actually setting up to do something like that in the very near future. And so,
just hang tight for a bit longer there uh point B and we can talk about that in fine fine detail. And so, Grumpy Mike, Dr. Jim, as the DIY professional you've proven yourself to be. That's correct. I sided my whole front yard, my whole
front lawn about three years ago. It's all dirt now. It's [laughter] It's all Well, dirt and sand. There's no grass left. No, the grass is gone. It's just dirt and sand. Like, it's amazing what actually happened out there. And uh
amazing." We're going to be Mike, do I need to pull a vacuum when adding R134A to a sealed system refrigerator or just let it fly? Come on, man. You know, just
let it fly. The do nothing strategy is universal. Just let it go. Just let it fly. It'll fix itself. Eia. Oh, the calendar spread. I got back to a Laura Racketin is here. What's up there, Brian
there you go. Laura's in the house and for Dr. Jim and the algo, man. I appreciate you so very much. E Media for the algo. I'm celebrating. Appreciate you. Ash Finn, Dr. Jim, let's go, man. I appreciate you so very much. Prop Trader
aka Dr. Jim for president. He uses dark mode. Yeah, that's a power move by TP, man. I hope he keeps it up. I really do cuz he brands himself as a contrarian, fading, you know, the Johnny Public and the crowd. There's no better way to do
that than go with the light mode on the Tasty Trade platform. Uh, sure. Nobody can see anything, but you got to stand alone, man. Like, don't let them tear us apart. And so, uh, let's see. EMTT Morrison is in the house. Uh, EMTT
Morrison, what's up, Dr. Jim? It's been a minute since I've been able to tune it's back, man. It's back and it's consistent. Like, we are back to mid-season form. Right around that 80 to 83% level. Uh, that's typically where we
uh where we oscillate. John Cington is here. Dr. Jim, thanks for the beer. man. Appreciate you so very much. So very much. E Media commiserating with you all. Uh yes, Ash Finn is here. Dr. Jim with the bondelin. He's taking it on
the chin a little. Should we put on a ZB trade? Man, are we doing a little ZB action now? I mean, I might do a little something down to 110. Man, do you really think on a Taco Tuesday such as
this that the administration is going to let this thing persist? There's no way. been a minute. It's been a minute. But if I remember correctly,
the quotes on bond options are in half ticks. So like when you look, I'm pretty sure this is right. And by pretty sure, I mean it's 6040. If you look at like a 109, like if we sold a 109 put right here, which I think
we will, this should be kind of fun. These this 3739 quote, those are half ticks. So every every full tick of the bond quote is 31 and a quarter. So, So, that means a half tick. Man, that's
tricky. $1560 something give or take. And so, that's about $1560 give or take. And so, understand that you're that's what you're looking at. So, if I go in here and I sell the 109
put, my maximum profit is, my maximum profit is, let's see here, it's going to be 37 let's see here, it's going to be 37 37 half ticks. Is that right for $578? I
might not be right about that. Maximum loss is $108,000. I mean, that would be if bonds go to zero. I would suggest we might have bigger problems if that were effect. Ooh, that's a little bit too big for my account. Yeah, that's about n 8
and a half% of the account. And so I have to think I don't I don't think I'm doing this right. I don't think that it is a half a tick. And so wait, no, actually I think it is right. Huh. Yeah, if you do 40. Yeah, actually I think I
am doing it right. And so it is half a tick. Yeah, I think so. And it's about 8%. Yeah, let's ship it. Let's ship it. STP would say, let's do it. And not to mention, let me write this down. Keeping receipts again. ZB equals Ash Finn. Got
it. Done. Okay, let's put this guy on. It's a little higher from a position sizing standpoint, but it's not crazy crazy. And so, we've done crazier things bond uh action. So, thank you there, Ashman. That's a really good looking
trade. Uh Griffin Jones is here. NQ slowly covering short cash covered puts during this up move. Nicely done, my friend. Uh, don't let don't let Griffin Jones fool you guys, man. This guy is a rockolid trader. This guy is a superstar
trader. Do not let him fool you, man. He is he is putting in some work. So, Ranch you're here, man. And you got in with the Laura Surprise and Delight. Uh, freezer. And everything is slowly defrosting. So, it's either tamali's or
BRZ, whichever seems to be more thought. There you go, Sam. Shout out to Laura. correct. The community gets happier, the comments start flowing, the algo starts pumping. That's 100% correct. Uh, trade idea from Griffin Jones. Make a moving
crowd, man. I don't know. Crowd down $7. Well, they've got earnings on August 26. don't want to do Well, maybe we could do a defined risk trading crowd.
a defined risk trading crowd. Maybe. Uh, let's see here. Down $7. I everybody should be bullish in crowd, obviously. And so, if we go in here, if obviously. And so, if we go in here, if I sell 87 and Yeah, I don't like that,
man. That's just not great pricing. And so, yeah, that's real bad. Yeah. And so, do you mean? What do you mean? What what what is so bad about this? Let's take, you know, it'll be no more than seven minutes. And by no more, I mean no less.
If I look at this crowd short put spread, I'm selling a 190 strike. I'm buying a 185 strike. It's $5 wide. I am bad. For some reason, I thought it was $10 wide. That's actually okay. And so,
it's selling for 235. And so, when I originally thought, oh my gosh, that's thought we were $10 wide and only collecting $2.35. But now, I'm looking at it at $5 wide, that's actually not too bad at all. Uh, in fact, we can even
move the strikes down a little bit. And so if you are brand new, the reason why I balked initially is I want to be at least at one third the width of the strikes, if not, you know, closer to maybe 40% the width of the strikes. And
so 235 on a $10 wide, that's not going to work. But 235 on a $5 word uh $5 wide, that is going to work. So let's do uh Yeah, I mean, what if I do an 8580 for 210? That's actually not too bad. Whose trade is this now? Griffin Jones.
Yeah, Griffin Jones, man. Griffin Jones ain't going to take me down. Nah crowd, but I got it down now. We got our receipts. There they are. So 213. We'll just do something kind of defined risk. Nothing super crazy. Uh we have a lot
of, you know, a lot of undefined risk uh kind of floating out there in the ether. kind of floating out there in the ether. So I think this is good. Two uh 210. So I think this is good. Two uh 210. Let's do let's do 207 maybe. I don't
know. Wow. Crowd strike man. Liquidity is just Is it liquid? Griffin, what are you doing to me, man? Yeah, three stars. I mean, that's not too bad. It's not either. We should be getting filled there pretty soon. 205. I think it'll do
it. Didn't do it. Wow. Okay. Well, now it's personal. 202. I think it should work. Filled the 202. There you go. So, we got filled at 202.
So, we gave up, man. We gave up about 10 cents there on the price discovery. So, thing honestly with uh you know multiple like extra uh multiple like strategies to find risk spreads and such the price discovery can be a little bit more
tricky because you have multiple uh markets that you're negotiating at the same time and so that is going to factor in 100%. Jackie W is here. Uh Sam L is HQ. That's correct. Right. But be
looking out for the tweets man because again you got to know from VIX HQ if we can't always count them. You guys know this though. So, E Media, any trade idea I'm bursting at the seams. Now, we're going to pass on that, but I appreciate
you e media as get the court position here. That's correct. Sam L, surprise many stories can one man fit into a single market commentary? I don't know. There'll be a number for me tomorrow for sure. Ranch. Uh oh, there's ranches. Oh,
we got to the second surprise and delay. Man, that's pretty good. We got to that one, too. Uh point B. Did Doc say the Boston Red? Oh, no. No. This a family show. This is a family show. And that's 14 in a row, my friend. Point B, that's
14 in a row, right? And so, are we going to get 15 tonight? I don't know, but to get 15 tonight? I don't know, but I'll be watching every single pitch. And so, let's see. Uh, do Randall, what are your portfolio deltas? Yeah, I mean, my
portfolio, I haven't looked at my portfolio deltas in a while. Uh, I mean, and you guys can even say, "Hey, not doing too bad. Doing okay." And so, but the portfolio delta is 82. you know, I'm a little bit positive. And so
about 37,000 these days. And so at 82, you know, we're a little bit that's okay. I mean, that's that's totally fine. We're a bit leverage to the upside. We're at about 1 and a halfx or so. I typically
right now, but I'm not I'm not chomping at jumping out of my shoes to get there. And so right now, this is fine. We can just let it kind of, you know, just kind of meander forward. Uh but uh but yeah, we're right at about one and a halfx
leverage there uh to the upside and so but Drew Randall, thank you for being here, my friend. I appreciate you. Jackie W is here. Sam Al is here. Jackie W is here. Sam Al is here. Griffin Jones. Uh let's see. Ranch, uh
it's like a finger on the pulse. Yeah. Well, like I said, oh, I got to go. Wow. winning trade seems to make a lot of sense to me personally, but again, it's up to you, man. You are the judge, jury, and executioner of your portfolio. It
But I appreciate you guys, man. I appreciate you guys so much. If I can shoot me an email. I am J Schultz@tastylive.com or we can connect on Twitter. I'm J Schultz F3. I would love to hear from you guys on there as
well. But stay tuned. We do have Tim Knight coming up next with Trading the them small, trade them heavy, and stay generous. We'll see you guys tomorrow.
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happy Tuesday to you. Uh, we have a green day on our hands. U, like yesterday, I got stopped out of a bunch of stuff at the opening bell. Unlike yesterday, I did not rush right back into it, you know, half an hour later.
Um [clears throat] I uh my trust of this market has been diminished a little bit today. Don't take too much from that, but uh I've definitely cranked risk down somewhat. Um still purely short
Um still purely short and um a lot of different positions, but took off the big ones. Uh took my profits on my diamond short this got stopped out of my EFA short right away. Uh so although my risk has dropped
precipitously from like 250% down to about 95%. It was done mostly by way of about 95%. It was done mostly by way of a few big ETFs. Um so it's a green day a few big ETFs. Um so it's a green day as I said ESN INQ RT YM all green with
tech stocks in particular being strong. The ENQ is up over 500 points almost 2%. So, let us tiptoe into the tulips here to check out the charts together and get a better sense of where things are uh up
to date. So, the diamonds have been monkeying around for 3 days now. We had monkeying around for 3 days now. We had a nice tumble on uh Friday and it looked yesterday's action. a nice bearish engulfing pattern. But this illustrates
nicely that candlesticks aren't particularly predictive cuz they're particularly predictive cuz they're based on like one or two price bars. And today, uh, it's just shrugging. Um, the the price range we've been in is roughly
similar to yesterday's, although the bar is green instead of red. So, as I said, I got out of my entire diamond short. Um, and I'm just kind of waiting. Uh, this could rally back up to the trend line perhaps or it could tumble away
based on some nasty earnings or it could just sit there. Um, it's not clear enough for me to bother sticking around with that particular one. What I'm watching especially closely, of course, is semiconductors. Now, this is kind of
an exaggerated view of it. This is SOXL, which is the leveraged um bullish instrument on semiconductors. And you can see here for a while from the end of uh until pretty much here the um the start of
June. So basically all of April and all of May. Um it was essentially just blasting higher and the first big shot across the bow was here. Big plunge and
then it shook that right off for a couple of weeks and blasted to its couple of weeks and blasted to its lifetime peak on June 22nd. And that was kind of it because from there we went um from $32
there we went um from $32 down to uh $116. So just in a few weeks lost almost 2/3 of the value. And what's been happening of the value. And what's been happening recently is on Friday and today and
yesterday uh we've been recovering. So, as you can see here, we bottomed on Friday, and so we we we opened weak, closed strong yesterday, opened strong, closed weak, but still had a net gain. And today, open strong and are currently
still strong. We're up um on this one a hearty 15.3%. I I emphasize again, this is a leveraged instrument, triple, I think. But you can see from the pattern, this does not exactly scream new bull market. Uh it to
me it screams get out while you can. Um so because we've we've basically done the easy part. We've bounced right back to the pattern. So we'll see. Um I'm lighter on semis than I was because they move rather violently and uh the
forementioned stopouts uh were largely in that zone and I really haven't wanted to get back into them again. So if we plunge tomorrow on semis, great, but I won't partake of it as heavily as I would have. Um although I did um based
on today's strength get a little more aggressive on my SMH September puts. Uh EW is sort of a different flavor of the same argument. This is South Korea very very similar in setup different drawings here. Uh we broke this up trend a while
ago and on the whole have been in this descending channel for the past couple of months. You can see just just you know you can imagine in your mind's right through there.
right through there. Um XME which uh is metals is like a lot of metals having a much needed bounce today. Um there were so many sectors that were terribly sold off. Gold, silver, miners, platinum, palladium,
Bitcoin. Well, Bitcoin's been recovering recently, but um almost all assets recently, but um almost all assets really sank hard with the semiconductor um slipperiness. Uh and that's bouncing to some degree. And of course, the more
um badly things are beaten, like take an extreme example like American Bitcoin, something like that, it can easily bounce 7 8 9% um when it opens cuz they've been just mushed. So, here's XME, which is up
about 3 1/2% and it's it's a really tough read because this thing is slogged down for months now. It's not something I would trade. Um but uh I don't suspect
any of these counter trend rallies are going to yield any um lasting difference anymore than say this last one did. But um if forced, I would rather be long this than short right now because metals been so badly busted. Um here's another
been so badly busted. Um here's another one. GLD gold. Um on the one hand, we've got a big old right triangle pattern there, very bearish. And uh on the other hand, we've got room to bounce here. Plenty of room to bounce. So I could see
it maybe finding its way back to the baseline of that right triangle perhaps. Um the miners GDX are along for the ride. Definitely up um about 4 and a3% here. Again, a huge overhead supply, but it's a little ways away. We could rally
on this. Um, you know, I haven't calculated the percentage or anything, more, absolutely could believe that cuz it's so deeply sold off. And just one last metal example, uh, silver um, tends to be more volatile than gold. And it's
showing that here too, up, uh, over 4 and a/4% and a/4% and plenty of potential upside. not as clear sort of where the line in the sand is. Maybe as low as round about there.
So, um the mania is definitely busted and a lot of people are comparing the metals mania that terminated late in January and plunged thereafter with the January and plunged thereafter with the semiconductor mania. I u I've tried to
line those up in some kind of analog. It doesn't really work for me. I I don't from a narrative perspective I I get it. Yeah. Big run up. Everyone's buying it
lot. Okay. It's easy to say in a sentence, but when you actually overlay the charts and I love analogs more than anybody. I really wanted to see some anybody. I really wanted to see some kind of um tick by tick tracking. I it
didn't happen. But uh you do see that in terms of just the psyche of people getting all wrapped up in that like they did with SpaceX for example. But in did with SpaceX for example. But in SpaceX is uh getting a rare green day
here. I think of the past of the prior if my account's right of the prior 13 if my account's right of the prior 13 trading days two were green and um the of course red and green don't necessarily mean the change is up or
of the candle based on the relationship between the open price and the closing between the open price and the closing price. But red usually is not good. Um, but it's interesting because I noticed earlier today they had undone
yesterday's uh drop and we're actually pushing into toward Friday's high, but it's not sticking around. We're up 2.73% right now. And if we change the
granularity of this to say 5 minutes, you can see there was this burst of vine excitement, you know, the drop's finally over and it stalled out and then started to waterfall down again. I also noticed like moments before the camera clicked
on, I was curious, have they mentioned when they were going to have earnings? Just came out, not the earnings, but the announcement. They're going to um release earnings in I think two Tuesdays from now, August 4. Um so that should be
interesting and definitely be a lot of people listening to that one. So, we've people listening to that one. So, we've got a real um rockom sacum early August for SpaceX because as I say on a daily basis, August 11 is the first release
and then now we know August 4 is going to be the um the first earnings announce announcement as a public company. So, let's just say between August 4 and SpaceX going to be a very interesting critter. Um because it's done so poorly,
uh the whole space sector has been quite weak. Although like a lot of other stuff today, it's been so badly battered, like 70 and 80% drops that they're getting a little bit of a pop just cuz at some point someone's going to buy. Um here we
point someone's going to buy. Um here we see Firefly Aerospace up over 6%. see Firefly Aerospace up over 6%. And um Planet Labs up over 3%. And um Planet Labs up over 3%. That's nice, you know, from a kind of
it's it's really immaterial um in [clears throat] the grand scheme of the [clears throat] the grand scheme of the chart. And I've also noticed that the the chilly um aftermath of the SpaceX IPO is completely cooled interest in
these sort of preIPO funds that are traded. One in particular, 21 Capital, which has the Roman numeral XXI as their ticker symbol, lifetime low. Even though SpaceX is a little bit up to date, it's not especially germanine because it's
really more devoted to all the things that haven't gone public yet. It's just a hodgepodge of probably things like, you know, Enthropic and data bricks, things like that. Um, but the uh the peak excitement on that terminated
apparently on May 5th and um we've slipped on this from 9 down to like 4.4. slipped on this from 9 down to like 4.4. Oh, incidentally, um I meant to mention regarding SpaceX and I I sort of joke a little bit about these these YouTube
headlines. I noticed yesterday's YouTube title was something like, you know, Tim says $90 is next for SpaceX. No, I I I mentioned just off the cuff
that, wow, if if earnings don't go great and the lockup uh release has a lot of sellers, you could see 90 next. I mean, it was just like pulled out of nowhere. I'm a chartist. I'm not making any kind of projection about where the price is
going to go. Could it go to 90? Absolutely. which is why I said it. Um, but the chart there's nothing to go on. I'm I'm happy to state specific prices if there's some rationale for it, but I just threw threw a double- digit number
out there that seem plausible as a as a maybe. So, please don't take it as like I'm projecting $90. I have no basis for that. They could have earnings that blow people's socks into the air and go flying higher for all I know. Um, so
history. There's very little history [clears throat] to go on. Happy to talk to you about Walmart, which has decades of history, but not SpaceX. I just sort of like look at it bugeyed as it goes down every day. Um I still have puts on
Costco. I sold half of them today just because um there's other fish to fry. It's doing fine. sold out a profit and of course the remaining position is still profitable but it's it's kind of a kind of a meandering little critter but
still short Costco by way of those puts. Carvana is recovering a bit today. I sold a little bit of those today those September actually no January no they are September bigger put in puts um they're doing well but we have been
there's kind of two patterns cooking here. One of them is this huge diamond which um is complete, but the other is is this trading range we've been banging around within. So, we're kind of at the lower end of that range. Um I think
what'll snap this out of its stuper will be uh its own earnings report, which I I be uh its own earnings report, which I I think is um the memory serves the 29th. think is um the memory serves the 29th. Um FXI is a much needed bright spot for
me today because it's taken a nice tumble down more than 1%. Um, it's my biggest options position. Those are also September. Those are $36 puts. So, that's going the right way. I appreciate that. FXI. Um, Lenar also, um, short
mentioned this one yesterday because of this tremendous head and shoulders top. Um, but you know, it's really all about SMH at this point. Um, as I said
support here, which was tagged on Friday, and we've got resistance here, and it's not to the penny. I mean, it's in this vicinity. Uh, if we keep going reluctant to keep moving this line, but this isn't a bad approximation of
resistance right now. The easy part of the bounce, I think, is is kind of done. Um, I mentioned China doing the right thing. It's some very welcome red on the screen today. Uh Alibaba is down 1 and 2/3%. Uh BYU is down a bit more than 1%.
direction. And uh there's some other items that I'm short that are uh behaving themselves. We got Shopify, which has a big triple digit PE ratio. This is down 1 and a4%. Uh I like the exchanges right now. Uh Chicago
exchanges right now. Uh Chicago Merkantil's down over 2% and sort of um J curving the right direction here. New one I don't think I mentioned is uh one I don't think I mentioned is uh Dinatrix DT which is down I shorted this
one yesterday um or the day before it's down a bit more than 4% and another exchange inter intercontinental exchange ICC this is down about 1 and a.5% below that big big pattern right there. So I as I say the exchanges for whatever
reason are looking real good. Uh, one last individual item I like on the short side, which I shorted a week or so ago, MongoDB, MDB, and this is down almost 5%. It's a sloppy chart. Really no pattern to speak of. Um, very, very
[clears throat] sloppy, but uh, behaving itself nicely. Just to wrap things up itself nicely. Just to wrap things up real quick, here's the ES inscrutable. We've been banging around this range for months. Um, it was [clears throat]
big down Friday. It was all over the map yesterday and closed basically unchanged and it's big up today undoing Friday's damage. It's just whiplashing and damage. It's just whiplashing and whipsawing and uh as I said tough tough
and more important for my own purposes is the ENQ where we've got these kind of um chapters of a book these uh these different chunks of range which you know as with the ES we've banged around Friday yesterday today but we're at
least uh close to that important resistance level beneath all this range that we were trapped within. So hopefully tomorrow we'll get some selling to resume and undo this. Okay, so I'll see you tomorrow and thanks for
so I'll see you tomorrow and thanks for swinging by. Good night.
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open interest. Open interest, open trades. It's right there. Imagine all the trades are in XYZ at the same strike and expiration. Day [music] one, Britney buys four options to open a trade. Dean also opens, but he only buys two
also opens, but he only buys two options. And then closing bell. [music] Day two, open interest is six because of yesterday's trades. Now Jessica gets in on XYZ [music] and she buys two options.
Day three, since no one has closed any trades yet, open interest is at 8. Watch this. Britney closes her trades, Dean closes his, and Jessica keeps her eyes open. [music] On day four, open interest is now down to two. That's because
Britney and Dean closed their positions and there are only two still left open. different from volume. And both of them are parts of liquidity, which is into any trade. [music] Pretty simple.
>> Explain pots. pot odds is my favorite term. Uh, but pot odds in the poker world or gambling world refers to having a greater payout than your implied odds would would suggest. So, let's say I have 3 to one
odds to win a pot, [music] but the pot is giving me 4:1 odds to make that bet. I would have a positive expected value over time. So, in trading, let's say you have a defined risk debit or [music] credit spread that's currently at a max
to go. There's not really a reason to close that position because you're already at max loss. You can only go up from there. So, in that scenario, that something that would give give us pot odds to stay in. [music]
>> Hey, bring the alarm, boys. Turn up the charm. Listen up, y'all. Get out the damn song. It's the last call. >> Hey, the last call. The last call. >> We're back. You're watching Tasty Live. Final 30 minutes of the trading day. So
that means it's time for Last Call. I'm Chris Veio. He's Tom Preston. TP is what his friends call him. Hey TP, what's up? >> Together, Chris and I form the ProAmerica team. We were just commenting about how nice it is to be American and
not, you know, and be free from the British um thumb as it were. Chris K, as a British conglomerate. >> Yeah, but that's okay. >> Not quite so free. TP, >> that's okay. Money's money is money's
green. But the point is, what did you say? 65 countries, one once every six >> a country celebrates its independence from Great Britain. That's pretty That's imp That's less impressive for them than it is the scope of the British Empire.
it is the scope of the British Empire. >> That's really what it is. I mean, they they were everywhere. >> Yeah. They're still in the Falcons as we >> from the recent games between England and Argentina.
>> Yeah. >> So, all right. So I this is I was frustrated by the rally today. I my big trade was the doing the today. I my big trade was the doing the unbalanced butterfly in the SPX0DTS.
Bought the 4730 sold this 4750. Uh bought the 4760. So a 10point butterfly with a um 10point
short put spread attached to it. Uh, as I described back at in my 1 pm segment, I put that on for a 60-cent credit. Took the butter, took the embedded vertical off for 15 cents. So, I locked in 45 cents per per spread. And I thought
cents per per spread. And I thought maybe, just maybe, Chris, we'd get a maybe, just maybe, Chris, we'd get a selloff and once I would nail the middle strike of the butterfly. Alas, it doesn't seem to be the case today.
today. The market kind of just jumped up here and then stayed pinned all day. When I was last on, we were up around 2%. So, we've slouched off a little bit percent here. I don't know if that's really anything to write home about, TP,
most of the session. It's been led by our semis here, which have had a really, really nice bounce back. Uh, up 4.4%. Curious. I mean, I have some action going on in TSM, ASML, SMH itself. But, uh, how are you handling this move?
call it 2 three day correction after that gap opened lower on uh on Friday. that gap opened lower on uh on Friday. >> So, I'm doing pretty just in spite of myself. Um along Apple, Apple's making money. Just
going down the list of my positions. Um where's CMCSA making money? Uh CMG making money. Coin Coinbase is losing money right now. I got long Bitcoin. I
sold some put spreads in IBIT and uh coin CO I N um the making money in Hullet Packard little
bit of money in Hallebertton losing a little bit money little bit of money in Google um it's just a mishmash but overall this is a pretty good day still short the um I'm still short the call spread the 6606 662 two half call spread
in meta uh with 6 days. So when is that next week? Um and I'm down actually no I'm up a couple of bucks on that trade. But I would like to see Meta win as we
me on the chart where Meta hurt you? I would like to strike a blow for option traders anywhere everywhere and make a little bit of money on Meta. a Meta position yesterday. It's here on the follow page. 31 DTE the 615610 short
put spread which you know could still put it back on for maybe what's still an appealing setup right now. 189 in credit for $5 wide in that strike. Uh better maybe risking three to make two close to 60% probability of profit. Why those
strikes? 615 sits below the 50-day moving average TP. It also fits the taste and mechanics criteria. I like when those two things sit on top of each walk into the sunset. >> Right. And and the whole point is it's
you look for where I look for where and granted I don't use charts very much but comes together. There are a lot of symbols out there especially with the earnings coming up this week that just the products aren't tradable. I mean
tomorrow we have what Tesla and Google. Those are the big ones. >> Um and those are pretty liquid. You can trade those. But aside from that, I sold trade those. But aside from that, I sold a put in CLF, Cliff's Natural Resources.
Um, GM reported this morning. Hallebertton reported this morning. GM Chris, I don't know what the stories are, but I guess Hallebertton beat are, but I guess Hallebertton beat estimates and the stock was down. GM, I
guess, beat estimates and took a ride off and electric vehicles or something. I didn't read the story very closely. >> They raise their 2026 uh profit outlook by 500 million. Uh, and their Q2 core profit rose 30%.
profit rose 30%. >> So, yeah. So, General Motors is up 5%, Hallebertton, H is down 5%. Um, I sold a put in Hallebertton. Did I do a trade in Did I get Yeah, filled I sold a put spread 31
get Yeah, filled I sold a put spread 31 days in GM. Sold the 7577 in the August expiration. Took in 63 cents a credit on that GM put spread. Um, I'm just It's
not like I'm giving up. I mean, it's But this rally crude I was completely wrong bearish on crude oil. I'm still bearish on crude oil. >> Yeah. Well, Ilia, so last week when I did the did the um last call with Ilia,
2:30 to 3, the market was still open. He was, "Yes, I am bullish on," and I can't do a Russian accent anymore, but yes, I am bullish on oil. I said, "Okay, fine." Um, I think the CL options were closed, so I just went into USO, sold, so put
spreads in USO, took them off today for a nice little profit. Thank you, Ilia. a nice little profit. Thank you, Ilia. However, now I think uh this this whole, you know, the intensity of the bombing in Iran and the rally in crude oil, I
in Iran and the rally in crude oil, I understand that. Um, but this but this the the concurrent rally in the S&PS and the NASDAQ for example, it's it just it doesn't make sense. I mean, whatever it seems to care. You know, AI is going to
make money. AI is going to be our salvation. And if you're in the AI data centers that run it, you're going to be fine. >> Yeah. TP. I mean, yesterday I put on the short iron condor, but what I'm sitting
at in 27 days right now from uh a while back when the market was still figuring over, I had on a long put spread, which perhaps I should have monetized a bit spreads out here. So, I'm long a put spread sitting in roughly like the 97 96
and then two short put spread. So, I'm comfortable as long as the market stays below, you know, we'll call it what, uh 97 bucks. Um so, I got some wiggle room upside and the downside right now. The market can just chop around here. I
happens. But if if we get a bigger break to the upside, maybe we have a reconsideration. >> So the question is, do I trade Google and or Tesla? I like to instead of saying [laughter] what I'm doing there
Just Tesla. >> No, I like saying Tesla, you know, because you know in Massachusetts we don't pronounce er everything's e, right? So if it were Tesla, we would pronounce it Tesla. So I just go
backwards and call it Tesla. Um, but if Tesla announces tomorrow morning,
what's which way is the skew? The stock's at 377.82, so right around 37750. Down five bucks, up five bucks. So the skew is pointed to up five bucks. So the skew is pointed to the upside. Chris expected move is $21.
Help me with the math here. 377 minus 21 is what? 56 >> 356. >> So the 352 355 it would be right there. I can sell that for maybe 48 cents. It's not enough
money. I would like to see a bigger credit, but I have to push it up beyond that um expected move. Um, and by the way, just so long as everybody knows what that, if you're looking in the upper right hand corner, that plus minus
2141, that's a weighted average of the eth the money strangles. It's the it's the trick we used to use on the floor before we had computers. So, we just money strangle prices, and that's what that number is. It's best in situations
like this where there are 1 2 3 4 days um until expiration. Um, so I'm going to just do this. I'm going to sell. I'm going to try 49. The mid price is 49. Let's lock it in at 49. Ship it.
Filled. Filled at 49. >> Yeah, TP. I know the market's right now when we were looking at it earlier today. Similar pricing right now. Uh but here in Tesla. >> Oh yeah. You know, someone pointed out
in today's confirmance we've seen gaps 8 10 12%. So, if you're thinking that the that, you have to give yourself more wiggle room, even if you want to play the earnings for a bit of an inside move here. And that's exactly what I did. I
went out. I went to the 355 350 and then also 410415 here, which again $5 wide. It was a little bit healthier before when I got little bit healthier before when I got in, but around a$150 a credit or so. And
risking 354 to make around 14 150 near 66% probability of profit. So I I I took a little bit less upside potential to go out to the one standard deviation instead of just the expected move. >> Tesla can be jumpy like Tesla, right?
Tesla is not just an Elon Musk stock. It's also AI right now >> and there's these merger rumors with with SpaceX. So I'm in. >> Well, no, but you know what the the
>> Well, no, but you know what the the point is it's you know I do one of point is it's you know I do one of these. Okay, I sell one put spread. hundred. I don't want to lose a couple hundred. That stinks. I don't want to,
but I understand that's part of how you a trader makes money. You have to take risk to make money. Okay, whatever. Um, so you got to be comfortable with that. One of the things I want to point out to folks, Chris, is if you look at Google
right now. So Google the earnings come out on the So Google the earnings come out on the 22nd. We have a one day. We have we have options expiring tomorrow, one day. And the expected move for that one day is
2471. As we go past that earnings line, that purple line in the um on the on the on the on the um uh option grid, the 3-day
the on the um uh option grid, the 3-day expected move is $20. In this case, in this case, I'm going to use the 24 day, the 24 point expected move from the 1 days because that's that's a going to be a little bit more sensitive to what the
earnings might be in my opinion. >> I would take that extra four bucks of >> I would take that extra four bucks of room um to to do a trade in here. So if room um to to do a trade in here. So if I went into 3 days and 24,
I went into 3 days and 24, let's say make it 25. What's 348US is? >> 23. So I have the 220s. Markets are so wide in here. I can't do this. No, I can't do this.
wrong one. I'm sorry. I was looking at the wrong one. I was looking at the 200 the wrong one. I was looking at the 200 um handle. So 320. What did we say? 320 >> 323 32 >> 323 So the 322 days
>> are you getting the price 77 cents a credit on a $5 wide strike? >> Well, no, I'm doing a 2 and 12 point. Um, [clears throat] no, I'm doing 2 and 12 point. So buying the 320, selling the 322 with 3 days to go 35 that's really
not enough credit. I don't necessarily like that. Um, >> unless I'm doing something wrong here. No, I am I am right. So 3.49US 25 would
be uh 20. Yeah, 24. If I want to give to the 25s. It's not It's not really it. I I I don't know. I don't like the credits in Google right now. I like the credit in better
>> I don't like Google. I'm going to walk away from Google. I already have a position on in Google. I already have the um in the August expiration. and I'm the um in the August expiration. and I'm short the 325 330 put spread. Um I'm
>> that's exactly what I'm doing too and I found that to be more appealing last week when I was looking through this and today is there a reason to take this off or maybe shift duration shift cycles? I don't really think so. No,
like you I found myself putting on this directionally neutral short iron condor in Tesla right now going into uh tomorrow's trade. So TP uh real quick I lined up. We have a quick uh referral friend. Can we do a quick referral
think that's allowed. We'll get that going here on the screen. Uh as we do, going here on the screen. Uh as we do, just reminder, tastyrade.com/refer friend. Tastyrade.com/referfriend. TP. $100 for you, $100 for your friend.
TP. $100 for you, $100 for your friend. It's a pretty good deal obviously. Uh [laughter] there is that. Uh tasty.com back, you know, forward slash I should say refer
friend. Uh TP, speaking of friends here, one thing that's been a good friend to me recent sessions has been that 50-day moving average in a bunch of names. If it's been uh you know ASML, if it's been a TSM, today it's the NASDAQ, we're
>> Some of these dips that I've been buying recently have turned out well so far. Um recently have turned out well so far. Um >> in his 50day moving average, >> is that is that how you convinced your wife to marry you? Is that was that the
line? Was that the line? >> You know, pretty close because it involved Gilead and their hepatitis C drug. [laughter] And when that went to were out of the money, that rang a bell. So, one of my favorite trades I've ever
had in the books. Tertainly not a tasty trade, let me tell you. When a stock's at 60 bucks and you're buying $90 calls, that's not a tasty trade. >> Well, see, right. Anyway, all right. So, the 50-day moving average, we are What
TSM, Chris? >> Well, TSM uh when we had that initial pullback last week, I got them at the 400 uh 390 short put spread here. I still think considering it's $10 wide strike even with today's move, there's
so much volatility still pumped into this product. You can get about $35 on you pull it forward a little bit. But, we bounced at an area where the market has been holding up since early May. I mean, I just drew a straight line at 385
here on my screen. TP market doesn't seem to want to go below there. And healthy rebound past two sessions really. Um, I think this is definitely position I'm going to start rolling forward if we continue to see this
upward price movement because quite frankly, uh, the semiconductor story hasn't changed. It's just the fact that you have a bunch of leverage junkies who getting blown up on the way out. Oh, well, yeah, that's that's a the leverage
well, yeah, that's that's a the leverage is a growing problem and and packaging crappy debt into bonds and selling it to the public as bonds is another growing problem. Here's what I see in here's what I see in TSM, though, Chris,
>> and I'm not disagreeing with your 50-day moving average. Don't don't think this moving average, >> but personal attacks. The skew is pointed towards the put side a little bit. Not dramatically, not like, oh my
half times what the calls are. That's not what it is. This is, you know, compare. Let's say go out to August. Look at the 420 puts 22. They're at Look at the 420 puts 22. They're at 2290. 430 calls 23. Actually, no. You
know what? No, I'm wrong, Chris. I'm wrong. I was looking at 10 points. I was doing 10 points, not uh not five points. My mistake. The skew is pointed towards >> So yeah, >> ever so slightly
>> just as good as 50day. I've got my skew. >> Maybe we're there. >> So I have So if I I'm looking at 31 days. If I
So if I I'm looking at 31 days. If I sell the 395 397 half. So 2 1/2 points sell the 395 397 half. So 2 1/2 points divided by 3 is about 80 cents. Yeah, I can sell this. I can get 80. Markets are wide, but I can try it. 87 cents. Let's
ship it TSM. Nothing done yet. Nothing done. Okay, Nothing done yet. Nothing done. Okay, fine. Um, so yeah, I'll work that order. >> Yeah. And you know, something away from the semiconductor space today. I know it
got slammed the other day on Friday at some hack >> related to Coca-Cola. Who cares? >> Uh, fits a criteria for a dip. I mean, for the past few months. GP we get there's your 50 right April uh June mid
June now here again maybe it's worth a swing I'm in at 31 days there's not a ton of premium out there but at the 8078 short put spread again $2 wide looking for around 67 uh I got in a little bit under 60 close
enough for me good enough for me criteria move on >> yeah I tried to trade I tried to sell some puts in Coca-Cola last week nothing some puts in Coca-Cola last week nothing done didn't didn't get filled. Um
the problem I'm looking at some naked short puts in there. It's an $82 stock. So the margin requirements on plain naked short options are expensive. You have larger accounts, not a problem, but if you're just kind of starting starting
out in this makes it a little expensive. Um, yeah, I think verticals going out to 31 days. Maybe the 7678.
go up to the 8078. No, I got to fiddle around with this. I got to fiddle. I got to I got to get my price for CocaCola. >> It might be something like the 7981. Um, but you know, I'm just sprinkling out
different bets that are uncorrelated to each I don't think Coca-Cola's, you going to be contingent upon whether or not, you know, another overleveraged [laughter] off a semiconductor holding. But no, TP, like that is just a sounding
not one in 30 traders in Korea. Not one in 30 traders, one in 30 residents of the entire country have been margin called as a result of that we just saw. >> 3% of the population. That's wild. >> Nice. That's awesome.
>> Hey, you know what? They are firing. Good for them. Good for them. They're taking risk. They're doing it. You only live once. And now they know what a >> Oh gosh. >> No, it sucks.
>> It sucks. I've done back in back in a previous life in in in previous companies that that we've created, I was the I wore a lot of hats. One of which was sorting out the margin problems after every expiration. And so, yes, you
know, we offer, you know, we try to get people to send in money. A lot of times they would just send in money. And most of the time it wasn't huge. There weren't huge debits. They they nobody there weren't huge margin problems. So,
had negative option buying power, but as long as they closed out a stock position negative short options, they'd be fine. Um, but yeah, if you're an in if you don't if you don't really understand the markets or trading or you get wacky
positions and you get a margin call, you don't know what to do. What do you do? don't know what to do. What do you do? You you you sell a kidney? I don't know. no. >> Is it [laughter] Is that on Kelshi?
>> Leave that on. >> Yeah. No, donate plasma. That's how you >> I don't know if there's enough money in plasma. It depend. It depends on the size of the call. So anyway, where are SP? What's the S&P? Am I going to get a
>> No, you're not. No, you're not. We're both trapped in hell. I'm still top ticking my 7600 MES position. Although, you know, a lot of the exposure that I put on recently is is having a nice little turn today. Um, the worst thing
think, is actually gold here. >> Yeah, gold's been a dog today. I mean, Maybe I have too much macro on the brain, which is always a problem for me. But Ilia has too much macro on the brain and he's been doing this right. So
>> I think it's just a me problem. >> Well, what's Illy? Is he Is he long or days ago and he's like, "Look, oil keeps going up. Yields keep going up. The >> Gold isn't doing anything." >> Yeah.
>> And today's another day. Yields up, oil up, dollar up. And gold finds itself >> So, you know, regimes change in the correlations, they they tighten. They loosen up, they break apart. Uh maybe
have any good read on gold? I mean, I'm taking a look at volatility in the space. It doesn't feel like there's a great deal. And V has continued to come alluring >> for how I short an iron condor in GLD.
Where is that? I got to find it in my I got to dig through it. Anyway, I'm short short iron condor in GLD. Um, and I think that was I did a cherry bomb on that last week or the week prior. And I
just think gold, you know, it's been noodling around for the past month or that. I would just sell I would sell an iron condor and G in either GLD if you want an ETF or GC if you want to trade the futures or the minis or the minis.
>> that was actually your Friday, believe it or not, it was your Friday cherry it or not, it was your Friday cherry bomb from July. Uh July 10th. >> there you have it. >> Right. The um the futures cheat sheet.
So the micros, what is that? Um >> 359 >> M or 10ZQ6.
symbols. >> Too many symbols. >> Too many symbols. Uh hold on. I'm just putting on your trade here. the 398400. This was the uh trade that you had on from your cherry bomb the other day, by
still riding this out at 10 days to expiration. Even, you know, now it's inside the move for what it's worth. The plus or minus $9.91 is inside both of now. >> Yeah, I'll hang on to it. I mean, it's a
defined risk trade. I'm okay with that. >> Do you ride this into the ground or do profit threshold at this point? How are you managing it? No, I would I would I'm going to hang on to this stupid trade. Um I don't have a reason to roll it yet.
I suppose I could. I suppose I could. I'm just kind of letting it go. I just >> It's a defined gross trade. I'm not worried about it. less than two minutes to go until the market close here. The NASDAQ is trying
to close near session highs. I know that you've been uh caveeting here a little bit about S&P not giving you a selloff, but does does today's movement change your perspective at all? It feels like today is a a nothing day. I know it's a
rally here, but where the heck are the traders? We're not going to cross a million contracts here in ES. Is this just all pre-earnings >> com before the storm? >> The liquidity stinks. The liquidity in
this stuff stinks. And what I'm seeing is what I saw earlier today, Chris, in my heat map was that there was a lot of red. A lot of little stocks were red. There were a few stocks like I think it was Google,
uh, Nvidia was unchanged. Apple was up. I think there were a few big stocks propping up the market with the S&Ps up about 38 bucks and then it slowly started to get green for the rest of the day. So yeah, I mean, if you're bullish
on this stuff, if you think that we're going to ride through 82 or 83 or higher dollar, you know, barrel oil, um, and think that, you know, the market's just
going to keep moving higher. Yeah, you can you can sell put spreads in the S&P, Selman SPY, just get in there and trade. That's my point. I have no idea which way the stocks are going to go. I have a hunch. Whatever. You know, I was betting
still made money. So, what do I care? >> I'd rather make money than be right. business. I mean, you got to think of yourself like a baseball players TP, they hit 300. They
>> You don't need to you don't need to be more right than wrong. >> Uh S&P 500 slinks into the close because today. 954,000 contracts [laughter] traded 7545. good for 62 points
>> higher. All the big earnings are coming out tomorrow, but that gives us a VIX reading. Did we close under 17? We did 1693. Folks, we are out of time here on last call, which means it's overtime next. TP, we'll catch you tomorrow.
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here. [music]
lightest volume days that we've seen in a long time. It is still Tuesday, July 21st, 2026. This is overtime. I'm your host, Chris Veio in New York. SP back in San Francisco. We're here for the next 30 minutes as we wind down this trading
day. A trading day that is remarkable for many reasons. Oil is up, yields are up, and gold does not care whatsoever. Of course, nor does silver or copper, which IA, we promised a conversation earlier about that. It's a beach ball.
We also have to talk about the dollar, which continues to run here uh as our US Treasury yields go up and rate hike odds continue to rise back. But all that seems to be tied to oil which IA we have the sweet nectar of earnings ahead. Who
cares what's happening in the straight of four moves. Does that remind you of where we were 3 months ago? Who cares about war headlines when we have money to count? So today the market focused perhaps tomorrow on Alphabet on Tesla on
the earnings that are coming here henceforth because folks were just painting well the windows today. Window dressing I think is the expression it dressing I think is the expression it is. I'm not guessing. Uh 968,000
contracts here. So no one nothing. This is usually good volume for like noon. the >> This is why Yeah. I mean you needless to say, you're absolutely right. And this is why I don't really put a whole lot of
stock into anything I'm seeing in these markets today because this just looks like dispersion like like the kids were left dispersion like like the kids were left to wander in the playroom without the
teacher and they just dispersed into various corners. Somebody's eating Play-Doh over here. Someone uh is is wall over there. There's no rhyme or reason to any of this.
[laughter] you make of the market. Just sitting around eating Play-Doh. >> I mean, the volumes are non-existent. Market relationships even versus where they were yesterday are not holding up. There
was no data. There were no headlines to inspire any of this. And there's obviously no conviction. Yeah, I'd say we're just eating Play-Doh today. >> Uh, sure. Yeah, it maybe, but we're
we're doing with this market, uh, it definitely feels like this is a market tailwind out of China. They're trying to take more steps to stabilize their market, um, >> well, we've heard this song before. They
haven't done anything since before they exited COVID lockdowns to do anything meaningful to this economy. that's actually worked. So, >> Godspeed. >> Godspeed, of course. But if they're
that the semiconductor pullback doesn't drag down the rest of the uh financial >> that could be something. >> Uh, you know, semis do get a nice little I'm just thinking about what I'm trading
there are a few positions that I have on in the space. I'm going to just alphabetize this so I can find them easier. ASML, for example. Uh this was put on with Liz on a confirm and send a while back. The 1680 1640 short put
spread. That still means that we are looking at a short strike nestled below 50-day moving average. So I'm going to hang on to this here. It's uh a nice thinking about Google heading into tomorrow's results. That's a short put
spread sitting at 325 330. TP and I both have discussed that here today on last something related to the earnings itself because just the pricing and the options change through the end of the week. It's not the not exactly the mechanics that
you want to stick to if you do things the tasty way. Um other than that, Meta of a jostle here today, but we've had that rebound. Um 615 610 still sitting in, still see no reason to get out of it. And then I suppose TSM and WDC TSM's
sessions. >> Yeah. So, a lot of the things that I've looking into getting into and you know we definitely overshot that. But now we're back to them and if we were at
this level the whole time, I'd be fine. You think though that someone like me trying to buy that dip initially, we've run off the clock. Even if prices haven't moved up substantially higher, this is a good place to get out, take
the money and run. you see this as a sell the rally move today across the board in NQ and ES no matter where you look I think >> yeah I mean pretty much I think NQ is a great uh kind of standin for what this
looks like in my mind it's sort of like this either this is a turn or it isn't and we don't have any confirmation that it is and
until it is the path of least resistance is we got a break of a range last week and now we're testing the underside of where that that that break occurred. Maybe we'll overcome it, possible,
certainly. But maybe we won't. And we just don't know. And until we do, just don't know. And until we do, the status quo before is where I'm at
the status quo before is where I'm at now. Of course, I wasn't trading the the break. I was trading the topping going back to the beginning of June. >> Sure. >> And so I'm sitting short call verticals
basically just on the premise that as long as this thing doesn't have a scorching rally, I'm going to pick up premium and keep it moving. And if it falls off and there's a more significant sell-off, well, that's just a nice pound
of icing on the cake. But that doesn't have to happen. That's just the way I want to be leaning because I think the risk is tilted that way. But
I don't think I would be looking at this as anything other at this point than a retracement with the bias favoring weakness. Now tomorrow we might find something else but today especially with volume
non-existent I think that's where my head is you have to go so the way that I'm structured here right uh let's see there's M and Q which is sitting out at 41 that's got some time to go there's
triple Q NASDAQ exposure which is at 24 so maybe I roll that this week RTY doublebarreled in at 31 and 41 of course the long messes position. So, that's kind of open-ended until, you know, at least September 18th in terms of when
that would be expiring. Uh, when are you running into your consideration for your positions? Because you being in >> I got at this point, >> if you're like 24 DTE here, right? And we can go into the technical discussion
again about how the market you and I think the daily chart here about how higher. Maybe it's not a turn higher into new highs, but when you see bottom >> could be. Now, I think your point is well is well taken there.
expiration, you're handling it differently than if little more% room to burn. If you're at 2 days to expiration and you're sitting sitting short at the 7600 puts, that's a very different consideration. So, you're
differently. You're right. >> What's the time? What's the time scale? >> What's the time? What's the time scale? I mean, for me, so just to kind of start at the beginning, my sweet spot for the way that I approach markets is a few
weeks in a trade. The ones that work typically are four to five weeks. The ones that don't work are typically two weeks or so where usually within two
weeks the trade will either do something that violates the trade parameters or that violates the trade parameters or it'll do something that looks bad enough don't want to have this exposure. Goodbye.
Goodbye. So when I look at the current situation, I don't really have much of a forcing function. The soonest expiry I have is function. The soonest expiry I have is the silver which has 31 days to go.
Everything else is pushed out further. Uh crude oil also uh 31 days to to go which by the way I will happily at this rate I'll happily keep rolling it out.
rate I'll happily keep rolling it out. This is this is minting money so far. So This is this is minting money so far. So if it keeps going cool. Um it's the right now. Mh. >> So
as I look at all of this then I mean as far as the indexes far as the indexes I have 38 days, 41 days depending on I have 38 days, 41 days depending on where. So in the Q's 41 days um in
where. So in the Q's 41 days um in TLT 38 days I mean some positions I have like for example EWZ 59 days and I've already been in it for 78 days. So these are sort of things that exist on a different time scam, but you know, my
different time scam, but you know, my MSOS position has 178 days and I've been in it for 252. So these are these are different ideas. >> Um, no, >> but the active stuff, I got time. I'm
not doing anything. >> So I was uh, you know, looking for uncorrelated positions today to things. Uh, you know, one chart that stuck out anything but like Live Nation. >> Yeah.
they are monopoly. >> They just had a big win that Jay-Z show in in in New York was apparently quite the thing.
automated channel here. The regression channel from the bottom to the top here. channel. It's a pretty clean looking channel, Ilia, that we've seen since uh >> And to that point, the market's coming into an area near 175 where it hit a
into an area near 175 where it hit a high on September 11th, 2025. Uh hit and then since then has pull up. So, I'm thinking 175 tomorrow. They have which is the only thing that throws me for a loop. It's uh next uh next
Thursday. So if you're sitting out at 10 days to expiration, you do have to worry about that risk. But it does mean that you're getting compensated a little bit here if you take risk around that level. So like 172 and a half 170 here building
pricing is the point I'm getting at because if you're going five points wide or $25 wide, you're going to get to somewhere in the neighborhood of uh that 172 and a half 175 in fact is going to bring you right there on a little bit
healthier. You want to get more than 80 cents or so. 83 cents would actually be your third of the width. So getting to 93 fits the criteria. But this is one of tomorrow morning. I have my little watch list here. I like to go through in the
morning first through the mega cap names stocks that are below their two their one month moving average but still above their 50 and then I broaden that out to just any large cap stocks with uh market caps north of $10 billion and just see
if there's something I could pick up or trade around. Um, Live Nation was one of those stocks that caught my eye today, even though it's it's down in a in an uptape. >> Yeah. I mean, it's something to keep an
>> Yeah. I mean, it's something to keep an eye on. I worry as ever that if there is some sort of a distribution that occurs in the AI story that really starts to in the AI story that really starts to take hold for US markets. the way maybe
not even the way that it's taken hold in Korea that's a much more liquid market aggressively but something that's a little bit more directional for US markets which has started to happen a little bit but I would say is not really
confirmed as a larger move if that occurs correlations are going to go to one and these distinctions between you know live nation or schlumbumber won't matter >> you know seven rising by By the way, I
according to the SIBO's uh core 1M index, uh I believe >> never mind that came back in. So much for that. Um last Friday,
>> it depends. It depends on which correlations, right? Like rolling what? >> Well, this is this is just their core M index over the over the month, >> There's core 3M. So correlations had typed on Friday. The core one index was
typed on Friday. The core one index was up at uh 7.7 7.57. It's now back down to 4.98. All right. Yeah, there's still high you know, we're in the middle of earning season. That kind of makes sense. You'd
stocks to kind of do things on their own terms. Um >> Yeah. >> Can we talk about the currencies though and what's happening with gold and silver? Because bonds took another dip
to the downside today. Uh they're off the low, but we did hit a new relative recent weeks when we tried to bottom in the middle of May. You see it in ZB. You see it in ZN here. ZN doesn't quite break down to a new cycle low just yet,
this does feel like it's hinging upon what's going on with oil, which you know, I've been trading this across expirations here. I clu V6 uh Z long deltas. Uh so I maybe I have the same position on right now. I got back into a
ZB position towards the end of the day. Why are you so confident right now that gold is able to shoe away these two factors? Is gold looking around the corner to a world that because energy has been so high
actually teetering into demand destruction. Yes. >> And so gold can gold can see Okay. Gold can see that. [laughter] It's like Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You guys in your higher inflation. Yeah.
Remember, you remember my role historically? I protect your purchasing power. Remember when I had outperformed the S&P 500 since the year 2000? That was me. Why are you confident that now's the turning point? Because, you know, I
love a good gold story. I could get on board again very easily. I'm only trading it short through 10 because I have my longerterm bullish biases and I being short because I'll hate myself for it.
So tell me, IA, why is now the time that gold's turning the corner with yields up Because today is starting to feel a little bit different. >> I think it's the price action. And I think for me, it's always the price
think for me, it's always the price action first. U I love my macro narrative, but if the macro narrative comes before the price action, you're and >> I thought that that descending trend
middle of Maze Broken, but that doesn't right? >> Right. But I mean, I think you could see started to take out any levels, which is why I started to kind of nibble on the
why I started to kind of nibble on the long side here and in silver. uh because >> well >> we've had crude oil surging for a while >> we've had crude oil surging for a while now couple of weeks
and gold and silver couldn't be bothered. Neither could the bonds for that matter. They ultimately didn't really sell off. They're a little bit heavier today. They're heavier within their range today. ZB looks a
little ugly and I'm tempted to write it off at least until I get a conf a day of confirmation from ZN which didn't break
down today. But ZB does look a little dicey. Um, and I got to be careful about that. >> I'm I want to buy into this, but I'm thinking about 22 and 23 when we had higher inflation. It
you're effectively making a depending upon your window, right? If you're certainly making a different bet. If then if you're shorting, expires next week. >> But
you're also effectively making a bet that the Fed's not going to hike if you gold position. Are you not? I'm making the case that the Fed is
I'm making the case that the Fed is expected to hike with near certainty now and that probability is going to come down it won't. >> Are they hiking before midterms?
>> I don't think so. I don't think so. But again, it's not It doesn't matter what I think. What matters is what does the market think? And the market thinks that we're going to get a hike. The market thinks we
might get one before the midterms at this point. I think the market >> I think the larger Yeah. I mean, I think the the and I'm not here to argue with the market to me. What
seems apparent is two things. The first is that raising rates will not solve the inflation issue coming from oil because there is nothing that interest rate hikes are going to do to
change what's happening in the straight of Hamuz or how the president is interacting with the leaders in Thran. None of that becomes better, worse, different, otherwise if you raise rates by 25 basis points.
It doesn't matter. It's useless and everybody understands that. The only reason you would do that >> oil production if you raise rates, >> Not much. >> Does 25 basis points do anything?
>> Did you Did you see the Hallebertton results? This these companies are like, "We're not expanding production outside of the Middle East. Our Middle East of the Middle East. Our Middle East sales are down. We have no plans to
sales are down. We have no plans to start new operations. 25 basis points is going to change that kill us this way. >> No, but I think it just it just going to make the cost of capital that much more expensive are already not interested in
opening new operations. >> Sure. I agree with you. I mean, I'm still long crude oil. I think the Fed's calculus, forget the oil majors for a second. The Fed's calculus is why would
second. The Fed's calculus is why would I, the Federal Reserve, do this? What am I going to achieve with this rate hike? I would maybe check the slide in inflation expectations and tell them, hey, hey, hey, we need to stay anchored.
But that's not a problem that we have. Inflation expectations are down. They're not up. If we look at if if we look at break evens, we don't have an issue here. And so the question then becomes, okay,
well, so what are you solving with a rate hike? What are you doing? Nothing. Unless you hike so many times that you crush the economy.
>> Can I just point out that we did have inflation expectations tumbling again by the end of June, but they are up. >> Well, crude oil has popped back up, but >> Well, crude oil has popped back up, but but we're by no means rallying.
>> No, we've stabilized. I mean and 2.2% for long-term 5y year 5year inflation inflation swap forward. It's like five years from now what are you betting on >> Yes. >> Why you would make this trade? I've
never found a practical reason to do so from a retail perspective. There's lots or institution it's not something that a trade that any retail >> break even rates I think they're a little bit for me at least more
intuitive. But this range here, Ilia, over the past 10, like five years, 1.9 up to 2.7, we're effectively sitting at the midpoint of it. And a lot of this is postcoid, so it's a little bit higher inflation than we had typically seen.
But even so, we can go back, right, 10 years. We can go back as much as you midpoint of a lower range than we were for much of the 2000s. And I don't think anyone wants to go back to the second half of the 2010s when there was just no
volatility, no inflation, low y. I mean, that was a mess for the market. >> Well, and look at the break even rates, the 5year break even, the 10-year break >> They're not going anywhere. And by the way, it's not like they weren't
responsive. They were very responsive. When crude oil started to rally at the start of the war, the break even surged. >> They jumped. They surged almost tick for tick, especially the 5-year, almost tick for
especially the 5-year, almost tick for tick with crude oil. Since this crude oil rebound, though, they are not going back up. They've stopped falling, but they're not going back up. And that's telling you, hang on
a minute now. There's something else that's going on here. The dynamics in these markets are changing. Now, of course, this is a very low volume day,
so who knows what knuckleheads are running around uh behind this volume, knocking in to each other today. This is not conviction. not conviction. But at the same time,
this has been happening for a few weeks now. now. So, there is a pivot that's starting to So, there is a pivot that's starting to creep here. Who knows what it is, but
something is changing. And that's why I'm long gold. It's why And that's why I'm long gold. It's why I'm short dollar. It's why I'm uh long the bonds. I think the market is about to learn that it doesn't actually think
quite so convincingly about these rate hikes. >> Yeah. One's priced for September. 53% chance that we get a second one uh by December of this year. Directly tied to what's happening in oil right now. So
>> Yes. >> You know, I don't know if we could separate the two. Uh the correlations seem to be tight, Ilia. In fact, just for the sake of this conversation, I'm just going to run the run the
correlation coefficient. uh oil we'll set as the base and we'll just slap on set as the base and we'll just slap on the ZQZ 2026 and the oneweek moving average rolling correlation between these two. Um negative0.96.
these two. Um negative0.96. So yeah, near perfect as as oil as oil prices are going up, you're seeing the rate hike odds go up or I should say the SR3Z6 contract price goes down which means higher rate hike odds. Yeah, I
means higher rate hike odds. Yeah, I mean clearly there is a reaction function and then you look at what's actually and then you look at what's actually going on in ZT ZN you go okay but does
going on in ZT ZN you go okay but does anybody buy any of this or is this just capital spinning because again like okay so they hike rates And
rates And and what I mean if you want to do demand destruction, okay, do what Powell did. Give us some 75 basis point backto back Give us some 75 basis point backto back hikes. Yeah, you you'll have an effect.
favorite thing that I got working that I put on in the last two days is probably yesterday decided to take. >> Hats off on that one. That was that was clean and it happened without the other u the other pairs really participating
which is very telling >> telling you know bounce at the 50 above a former major swing level from end of March beginning of April bullish engulfing bar uh decent pricing on the 71 and a half 72 for 6C I still think
it's viable what was really fascinating to me was you get this inflation report juxtaposed against all the bo commentary where these policy makers have been all real tough we're going to have to hike rates and then inflation comes in
negative0.4% versus negative0.2 expected and it's like okay guys all right tough guy you're not hiking rates anytime soon with that attitude. Um and so you're here the the dollar index as we go into the close still holding that former
swing level and now four days of gains off of that return to former resistance turn support. So today was a today was broadly speaking a good day for me. Gold in the follow account. uh which is still a profitable position, but it's, you
Someone did ask if I'm still holding long the end ofear S&P 500 calls sitting long the end ofear S&P 500 calls sitting out at uh, you know, 8,000. Yeah, 8,8200 call spread. We could monetize this for a gain right now. Uh, this is predicated
saw going through the middle of April earlier, right? Market had typically earlier, right? Market had typically added on another like 14% in years where just added 14% to where we were and found the 8,000 call. So, I'm not taking
this off until something proves me wrong, but I trust the history and the wrong, but I trust the history and the data to have put this position on. I mean, there's nothing wrong with the history or the data. We're just going to
have to see if the if the sentiment situation remains the same. I mean, I think since miday, we've seen maybe it's changing.
since been made to that point. But to So we'll be back tomorrow. Same time, same place for Eastern 3 Central right after last call. Uh for specio, good luck trading. Stick around. Ilia is
money coming up next. You're watching Tasty Live. See you then everybody.
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What are these markets trying to tell us? It's a quiet day. We have a kind of us? It's a quiet day. We have a kind of meltup in the stock market for no reason meltup in the stock market for no reason and on really thin volume. So, should we
take it at face value or are we setting up for something else? That's what we're up for something else? That's what we're going to try to explore here on Macro Money. This is Spacback, head of global macro here at Tasty Live, and we are
macro here at Tasty Live, and we are going to get into the price action right away because we need to understand what the markets seem to be saying here uh the markets seem to be saying here uh and uh really start from that as a sort
and uh really start from that as a sort of first principle because when we look at the positioning here and we'll start with the S&P 500 as we always do, It's not readily apparent that we're looking at something that really has
changed very much even as we have had this move in uh markets today on the top side. So we're basically still within the same congestion where we've been
sitting. Today we get a little bit of an upswing within that congestion. Perhaps upswing within that congestion. Perhaps most interestingly, we are touching the underside of the trend that we ostensibly tried to break down last
week. We're testing the underside of where the congestion was before that where the congestion was before that break and we're pointedly not making headway beyond that. Moreover, the volumes here are comically low. I mean,
we're looking at some of the lowest volumes that we'd seen u tracked on the continuous contract here since basically back here at the turn of the calendar year. So, this is not exactly a rally with a whole lot of convincing momentum
behind it, if only because the money is not there to tell us that it's pouring not there to tell us that it's pouring in to drive this move higher. So, we get a bounce. We're getting closer to some sort of meaningful event risk.
There was none of it really over the past 24 hours. As we get further down into the week, more of it is drawing closer. So perhaps we're getting a bit closer. So perhaps we're getting a bit of uh portfolio rebalancing at the sort
of uh portfolio rebalancing at the sort of speculative uh more active hands-on u of speculative uh more active hands-on u corner of where market participants sit. But as far as the kind of conviction you need to make a trend
and really secure a break this way or that, that is not what this looks like. Um, it's an even more dramatic picture for the NASDAQ where the break of the
for the NASDAQ where the break of the congestive range last week was more congestive range last week was more clear, more definitive, and the retest clear, more definitive, and the retest today was more obvious and looking even
more corrective uh than what's going on in the S&P. Perhaps most critically for NASDAQ, the most recent series of lower highs here continues to cap and define
the price action. So if anything, what this looks like is congestion, breakdown, retest. It's difficult to want to short right here in this very spot. But gun to the head, if there was something to do here,
it might be on the short side because this looks like a breakdown that was this looks like a breakdown that was confirmed today, if only by resisting a rebound back through its bounds. Now,
not a lot of conviction. So, it's difficult to read into this or that difficult to read into this or that thing when volumes are this low. And so u the commitment that people have to this or that reading of the narrative is
this or that reading of the narrative is implied at relatively low levels. So implied at relatively low levels. So there is still seemingly a big decision that these markets need to make before this looks like a
to make before this looks like a directional move with legs. This or that way. Now there's no shortage of conviction in there's no shortage of conviction in crude oil. it continues to power higher.
So we get this gap at the start of the week. The markets attempt to close it week. The markets attempt to close it that ultimately does not suffer um uh so that ultimately does not suffer um uh so much but also does not give us the
unclenching that we might have wanted. We erase all of this attempt to uh take us back through the opening gap. we don't get upside followthrough and then
don't get upside followthrough and then today we do. So oil is uh seemingly trying to find its path of least resistance here and resolving that that path is higher. What's interesting in that environment
What's interesting in that environment is if yesterday we thought, oh well, maybe the soggginess in the S&P was related to crude oil having gapped related to crude oil having gapped higher and then held. Well, today
higher and then held. Well, today we get oil and stocks up in tandem. And are fraught when volumes are this low and conviction this weak. So read this all with a very large grain of salt. But
it is certainly the case that if there was some kind of a war trade dynamic, this was not the day for it because we again see the relationship between
again see the relationship between stocks and oil is tenuous at best and stocks and oil is tenuous at best and has been really until uh or really after the initial war trade from the start of the year. So here was where that began.
And you can see stocks initially sell off with bonds, with gold, as the dollar is rallying, as crude oil is uh spiking. And all of this makes very clear sense
until you get to here. That's the start of the previous earnings season. Obviously, we're uh just getting going on another one now. And stocks go off on another one now. And stocks go off and do their own thing.
the bonds. That's not what we see in gold. It's not what we see in the dollar. It's not what we see really anywhere other than stocks. And just when we thought we were maybe getting those dynamics a little bit more
consistent, uh the example from today is well just because crude oil is up does not mean stocks need to be down or for that matter vice versa.
that matter vice versa. Where we are seemingly seeing a knock uh on effect from oil is again in the bonds. There's a little bit of weakness here. So, yields are a little bit higher. And what's interesting is we are
higher. And what's interesting is we are still not breaking the lows that we've had here going all the way back to miday. Now, this is the 10-year note. It looks a little bit more precarious. If we go out on maturities to the long bond
we go out on maturities to the long bond ZB, the 30-year bond future, it looks a little bit worse for the wear. But again, on a low volume day like this, it's tough to make the determination that this is something to
determination that this is something to be firmly convinced of when you see the price action and you go, "Okay, yes, this is uh definitely telling me xyz
thing about relationships across markets or about what um expectations are doing Instead, it looks more like the markets are better given a little bit of room to
are better given a little bit of room to reconsider what they're thinking day in day out because on volume days like this, on thin days like this, it's tough to ask the markets to look convincing. And if they then do something that seems
in congruous in my mind, it's probably not a bad thing if it can be be made uh to make sense if it can be be made uh to make sense from a riskreward perspective to give
themselves out. Because on a day like this, it's not clear that anything that we see in the cross market relationships is
necessarily something we can still count on when we get into tomorrow's session, on when we get into tomorrow's session, never mind even just the overnight. So, as we look at then what's going on here, I think the path of least resistance
might be to say, well, if the 10-year and the 30 don't agree, let's go with the status quo until proven otherwise. And that status quo is proven otherwise. And that status quo is we're holding here for now. So the bonds
are responsive to some extent to the higher uh higher uh reading on uh crude oil, but that's not necessarily something that you can take with you and take to the bank as a trade
idea for now or at least so it would seem. for now or at least so it would seem. Now,
because of all things, what do we get with higher bonds and higher oil today? We get higher gold, which again in the context of a war trade makes absolutely context of a war trade makes absolutely no sense because we can see how gold has
no sense because we can see how gold has responded to this war trade so far. Here's where the war starts. And really, is it any wonder And really, is it any wonder The markets from the very beginning
approach the oil shock that comes with the start of the US Iran war as an inflation risk. They drive up interest rates. They sink the bonds. They boost the US dollar. Of course, that is a toxic mix for gold,
the perennial anti-at non-interestbearing kind of asset. And so to see that gold and by the way, silver too is rallying today in this
environment really starts to get you questioning, wait a second, do I really read this right, that the bonds are going to care here and extrapolate more
rate hikes as a consequence of oil going up here? Or is that just a reflexive thing that's happening at the long end of the curve and apparently only at the long end of the curve in this thin environment where
in this thin environment where conviction can't be taken as given. little bit stronger today and it's trying to re-engage the up move from
late April, early May. We can see we tried to kind of take this out yesterday uh and over the prior several days. So far, it looks like we're trying to catch far, it looks like we're trying to catch on this support, former rangetop
resistance turned support. Uh and of course, that range top uh was very significant. It held for the better part of a year until it broke right here. We're retesting it here. Maybe this is the start of a push higher. Maybe this
is still congestion. We still have lower highs here going into this test. So, uh, we haven't crossed, uh, any lubicons yet, uh, to the top side. And again,
when you see all of this together, it kind of has you scratching your head, or at least it has me scratching mine the same way that what's happening at the long end of the curve does. I'm not sure I believe it. And it's because you don't
I believe it. And it's because you don't get this convincing story from oil to stocks to bonds and frankly never mind stocks. Let's leave them aside. They've got an earning season coming up. Maybe they
earning season coming up. Maybe they want to wander off by themselves again. But when you don't see conviction across oil to gold to bonds to the dollar and it all kind of starts looking like a bit of a hodge podge, the
looking like a bit of a hodge podge, the directional thread on a low volume day doesn't look like it can really be counted on one way or another. Now, not surprisingly, we don't really have much of a lead from the data today.
have much of a lead from the data today. Uh, a bit of um relatively baseline UK uh jobs growth isn't going to really move the needle here. Um, we have a little bit more uh event risk over the next 24 hours, but again, this is event
risk outside of the US. And so outside of the kind of main sentiment narrative, u we're going to get UK inflation data, we're going to get uh Australian jobs data that could factor into the conversation somewhat, but um it doesn't
seem like that's the kind of thing that we need to really move the dial on we need to really move the dial on overall sentiment. Thursday, things get a little bit spicier. We get a Japanese CPI. we get an ECB rate decision. But
CPI. we get an ECB rate decision. But again, it seems like the big story now with what these markets are trying to tell us in the price action has to do tell us in the price action has to do with whether all of this uh fire and
with whether all of this uh fire and fury with crude oil has already created fury with crude oil has already created demand destruction at a time when global economies were already being squeezed by the contradictions of the AI boom and
corner. corner. of the macro universe. And so if that's where the markets are going, then the big story is going to be less about
what all of these things are, although again depending on what happens, they could factor into the conversation, and more about what's happening with the global business cycle. Because this is where
bonds trying to find a bottom, gold attempting to turn all while crude oil continues to power higher would start to paint a story and
would start to make sense because it could very well be that crude oil still has whatever geopolitical risk premium makes sense to add into the price because the US and Iran continue to lob projectiles at each
projectiles at each But the story that the markets might be thinking in their ever forwardlooking nature is we've got a a turn in the business cycle that's maybe starting to ripen here.
And all of this back and forth on crude oil is not going to mean a whole lot if demand falls out through the floor. And so when we look at then what's coming up, we've got S&P global survey data for
July. This is a timely approximation of GDP that's on the menu. Thursday, it starts with Australia and Japan, but the two main events are going to be on Friday with the Euro zone and the US because collectively they make up a huge
chunk of global GDP. And the contrast here between the two is fairly clear. In the US, you've got an economy that's still growing at a reasonable speed. As ever, of course, these numbers are uh structured around a
center line of 50 where that's neutral. Above 50 is growth. Below 50 is contraction. The further you go above 50, the faster the growth. The further contraction. Take a look for example
then at the US where manufacturing is growing much faster than services. But of course, services is much bigger than manufacturing as a share of the economy. And so you distill to a growth rate a little bit better than services thanks
to this um boost from manufacturing and that's where you land. In the case of the Euro area, you still get a pretty buoyant manufacturing sector. In fact, manufacturing is going to be relatively
economies because all of it is catching the AI data center buildout tailwind to various extents. Obviously in the US that exposure is greater. In Japan it's
bigger. In the Euro zone in Australia, in the UK it's smaller. So in the Euro area you get this really clean setup where manufacturing is growing.
The service sector at 49.4 is in contraction mode and expected to stay there in July. And so the net result for the economy is standstill. Nothing. Nobody's going anywhere. And that's the kind of thing you worry
And that's the kind of thing you worry about occurring in the US if you were to have a situation where the service sector were to get meaningfully weaker. It is of course the dominant part of the economy. It's also where consumers
primarily shop and where consumer demand primarily lives. Whereas manufacturing at this point is where the AI boom seems to be. talked about at length here, the economy was almost
singlehandedly powered by this investment boom. Meanwhile, the investment boom. Meanwhile, the contribution from consumption was in relative terms almost non-existent. In fact, in prior quarters where we've
recently had similarly weak consumption, first quarter of last year, first quarter of 2022, GDP for that quarter was actually negative. So the AI boom was really the difference
So the AI boom was really the difference maker this time and we already see that when that rapidly growing manufacturing boom in addition of course to the inflationary impetus from the oil spike starts to bear down on consumers
and they retrench service sectors slow into contraction mode. We see that already in uh the EU as we've just said and in the UK as well for that matter.
If that happens, that overpowers the AI boom because consumption is so much bigger as a share of GDP. The danger is that the same thing happens in the US and more broadly. Now
looking at this economic surprise index from the uh Croup set of U indicators here, this one captures the whole world.
And of course there's nuances here, but you can already see there's a little bit of soggginess emerging here since the beginning of July. Now the trend has beginning of July. Now the trend has been higher
beating relative to what those expectations were when the war started. And we can clearly see here expectations for um economic growth were higher and then the the numbers started to look uh soggier
as we started to get into the war especially uh deeper into it. And it especially uh deeper into it. And it seems like we've recovered some, not unlike uh what crude oil has done, but now we've started to pull back.
And so maybe we're starting to sniff something out here cycllically. If these worries about crude oil were in fact stoking inflation, that might help to revive the war uh trade, but they're not.
break even inflation expectations priced into bond markets are pointedly not going up here. They're they've stopped falling, but they're kind of anchoring here even as crude oil rebounds. as if to say that they're worried about
something else, that they're not just taking this oil jump as inflation because something else they see is bearing down on that inflation. Which might again explain why gold is
anchoring, why the bonds won't sell off more aggressively in this environment where crude oil is once again on the margin and by a meaningful uh margin too. Looking at the Atlanta Fed's GDP now um
forecast here, we can see growth expectations are retrenching significantly and we're now looking at 1.7% growth in and we're now looking at 1.7% growth in the second quarter, down from the 2.1%
in the first quarter. Now, that's a number that's going to change until we get those second quarter numbers actually reported. But most numbers actually reported. But most importantly, the direction of travel in
this model and so the tone of the economic data going into this model economic data going into this model that's been deteriorating since miday. Now explosive tech earnings wouldn't tell us that.
Back and forth headlines on the straight of Hormuz wouldn't tell us that. of Hormuz wouldn't tell us that. But if this is how we are going to look after the kind of quarter we had in the first quarter where we barely managed
growth and only really because of the AI boom and the pregame for it by manufacturers. If consumption is meaningfully weaker again, then this economy is going to look like it's on weak footing and the
kind of template that we see in the Euro area is going to start to look much more plausible for the US, which is perhaps why we get a little bit of an uptick on why we get a little bit of an uptick on rate hike expectations here today with
bonds, but we're still in the same range where but we're still in the same range where we've been basically since mid June. So yes, now we're looking at almost 35 basis points. So that's at least one
hike and maybe 50/50 chance of a second this year. But whether this holds up against what seem to be emerging cyclical concerns, that's still unclear.
And so there's going to be lots to watch here because the markets seem to be starting to show that they are turning and they're not doing it all at the same time. But what's going on in gold and to some extent in the bonds relative to
some extent in the bonds relative to what's going on in um the situation for what's going on in um the situation for stocks and of course for oil does seem stocks and of course for oil does seem to suggest that something is starting to
brew around the corner here. With that in mind, uh we go to where uh we have uh in mind, uh we go to where uh we have uh our exposure here. Uh, and there really
our exposure here. Uh, and there really was not major uh changes here that I was not major uh changes here that I made over the recent days. Um, I've for the most part uh kept things unchanged. So now I'm just watching how this
develops. So I'm still long gold. I am still outright short the micro uh futures dollar. So long Aussie, long pound, long euro. I still have a call vertical on in Bitcoin which is working a little bit. All of that a part of this
rates rethink uh that I think it is coming. I'm still short the headline indexes but through short call indexes but through short call verticals. So I've collected the premium
there up front and the way that the V was structured because of the call skew that we had here was you could get off a short call vertical with better than one to one riskreward which of course just means you're receiving more premium up
front than the max loss on the trade which is of course excellent riskreward. So I've got plenty of time uh on this uh 40 odd days to go. So, I'm just going to let that sit and as long as there's not an explosion higher, these ideas should
work. And of course, if there is an explosion lower, they'll work uh that much better. I'm still holding on to this uh long uh calls vertical in TLT. I
don't quite buy what's happening at the long end of the bonds here today. As as we've said, I'm willing to give it another day to think about things. And of of course I'm still long crude oil that continues to march higher and long
silver through a call vertical there. And that is macro money for today. As And that is macro money for today. As ever we are here Monday through Thursday. That's right after overtime, a show that I co-host with Chris Veio
where things may go there from. I'm also writing for the news and insights portion of tasty live.com and commenting at ilaspac on former Twitter and on blue. If you're watching this on YouTube, like and subscribe. Macro Buddy
returns tomorrow. They be trading. [clears throat]