---
title: '100% Винрейт на Вилках | Гарантированная Прибыль Без Риска в 2026'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=61VDqJR1vIk'
video_id: '61VDqJR1vIk'
date: 2026-08-06
duration_sec: 416
---

# 100% Винрейт на Вилках | Гарантированная Прибыль Без Риска в 2026

> Source: [100% Винрейт на Вилках | Гарантированная Прибыль Без Риска в 2026](https://youtube.com/watch?v=61VDqJR1vIk)

## Summary

This video explains a fork arbitrage strategy for prediction markets that claims a 100% win rate. By buying both 'yes' and 'no' outcomes of the same event across different platforms for less than $1 total, the trader locks in a guaranteed profit. The video walks through a concrete example, discusses compounding returns, and highlights the most liquid markets for finding forks.

### Key Points

- **Core fork strategy** [00:28] — The strategy involves placing a 'yes' bet on one prediction market and a 'no' bet on another for the same event, ensuring the total purchase price is less than $1.
- **Example: SpaceX IPO fork** [00:42] — For the SpaceX IPO event, buy 'yes' on Polymarket at $0.15 and 'no' on Predictfun at $0.837. Total cost is under $1, guaranteeing profit.
- **Profit calculation** [01:55] — On a $1,000 total bet, the guaranteed income is approximately $9.83–$9.84, which is about 0.98% return per trade.
- **Compounding returns** [02:33] — If at least five 1% fork events are found per month, $1,000 compounds to $1,816 in a year — more than 80% per annum.
- **Liquid markets: Fed rate forks** [02:58] — US Federal Reserve rate decisions (e.g., a 25-basis-point cut) had excellent forks between Kalshi and Polymarket, with hundreds of thousands of dollars in liquidity.
- **Platforms to use** [04:05] — Main platforms include Polymarket, Kalshi (requires verification), Predictfun, and Opinion. Smaller platforms may have thinner liquidity.
- **Critical nuance: verify rules** [05:50] — Always check that markets have identical rules and end dates. For example, 'IPO announcement' and 'IPO date' are completely different markets and cannot be forked.

## Transcript

Today we'll talk about a strategy that truly has a 100% win rate.  We've already discussed the 99% rate strategy.  If you haven't seen it, be sure to check it out; it also has a pretty interesting strategy.
Today we will look at how to place bets without losing at all.  So, of course, many could already understand what we will talk about .  We'll talk about forks. Today we'll look at forks between different prediction markets.  For
example, let's start with this strategy and between the prediction markets Poy Market and Predictfun.  Our next IPO event is, accordingly, in 2027. It's either yes or no.  We have super simple bets here.  And
the essence of the fork is to place an insert on one prediction market , yes, on the second no.  And do it in such a way that the total purchase price from us is less than $1.  In this case, what can we notice?  We
can buy the outcome, yes, at Polymarket for 15 cents and the outcome no, for 15 cents and the outcome no, respectively, at Predictvan for 83.7 cents.  Thanks to this, we can, uh, just calculate that, naturally,
the amount of this bet will be less than 1 dollar .  And there we see that we can buy a little less than $1,000 for these amounts directly on the limits, but it is best, naturally, to do this according to the market.  To
potential profit we will have, you can use absolutely any You can use any one that is convenient for you.  And let's look, in principle, at the coefficients.  The first coefficient when buying, yes, at 15 cents we will have 6
dollars 67 cents, namely the coefficient 6.67. our calculator accordingly.  Next, we go and look at the odds for the opposite event.  Here our coefficient is 119. We also indicate all of this here as
1.19 and also put there, for example, 1,000 dollars as the total bet amount and we get that the income in any case will be approximately 9 dollars 83 or 84 cents.
calculates for us how much we need to bet on each outcome .  That is, on odds of .  That is, on odds of 6.67 we bet $151, $119,848.60. Many people may decide that
earning, say, 10 dollars from 1,000 dollars is very, very little.  But keep in mind that this is a 100% rate. That is, it doesn’t matter to us which way the event ends; we will take this profit in any case.  This is approximately 0.98
percent of our income. And, if we calculate, accordingly, using a compound interest calculator, in principle, if at least five events per in principle, if at least five events per month are found with 1%, respectively,
yield, then in a year, accordingly, from $1,000 we will get 1.816, and this is more than 80% per annum.  And at the same time, naturally, it is also possible to take
larger amounts in more liquid markets.  In terms of more liquid markets, a very good example is actually the US Federal Reserve rate. Literally yesterday and the day before yesterday there were excellent, respectively, forks on
two points at once.  This is a change and a decrease of 25 points.  Accordingly, they essentially stayed between Kalshi and Palmaert for 2 days.  And I think more will appear by the end of April .  So you can keep an eye on these markets specifically.  Here.  And
if forks appear, you can also place them.  There was, uh, a gap of about the same percentage here .  And as for liquidity, it is much higher here.  And we can see, uh, that there are quite large amounts in the
glass, both in one direction and the other. If we take, for example, a cut of 25 points, then there are hundreds of thousands of dollars here that we can buy directly from the glass. At the moment, the fork has disappeared, but, as
it could appear more than once before the end of April, so you can again follow this particular market on different platforms. As for the platforms themselves, that is, prediction markets, of the main ones, of course,
I can highlight PolyMarket, as well as Kolshi, but verification is needed here. We also have some smaller ones - this is the fun predictor.  In general, he will also still points, but that's a slightly different story.  There is the same Opinion, which is generally
quite popular.  And you can search all available various events. As for the nuances in general, and, of course We have already discussed this with you more than once, that is, so that we can collect the amount we need
orders.  But often, of course, it is best to enter exactly on the glass, and not wait for our limits to fill.  And the most important thing, in essence, is the Accordingly,
let's consider an option, for example, like this fork, where we have SpaceX IPO Buy and, accordingly, the same thing, that is, when SpaceX announces an IPO.  In essence, the market seems to be very similar, and you can look for forks here,
for example, let's look at May 1st, that is, yes, here, May 1st, that is, yes, here, and, accordingly, at 5.96, and here at the end, on April 30th, accordingly, 2.9.  That is, we can
take it here for 2.9, and take it here with you for 96 and earn a little more than a percent there.  But here the context and the rules themselves are very important. Here we are talking about the announcement of an IPO, and here we are specifically talking about when the IPO will take place, and
in the rules we can read that here we are specifically talking about the first sale, and public, respectively, of shares.  Uh, we can also go down here and look at the market rules, which is exactly what is said here about the announcement, and therefore these are
completely two different markets that cannot be welcomed.  There So when you look at markets and analyze them, be sure to check that they end exactly the same, that
is, have the same.  If this video gets enough comments and a good following, we'll definitely make another video about sports betting, and, accordingly, about eSports betting, along with
bookmakers.  That is, for example, there is a Polymarket there and a bookmaker's office. There are also a lot of forks there, often they are live.  In general, we’ll also talk about this separately .  Finally, I would like to shed light on one very pressing issue
for many.  This is access to Telegram.  In general, many people are having problems with this right now, and that's why we have a post right here on our Telegram channel with a completely free proxy and use it.  With it, absolutely everything
loads well, without any delays and so on.  Well, thank you all so much for Telegram channel.  You can also find a lot of interesting content about Polimarketet.  M.