---
title: 'The Most Profitable Sports Betting Strategy (Crossed Market +EV)'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=_FNM2TZZi-E'
video_id: '_FNM2TZZi-E'
date: 2026-07-14
duration_sec: 1293
---

# The Most Profitable Sports Betting Strategy (Crossed Market +EV)

> Source: [The Most Profitable Sports Betting Strategy (Crossed Market +EV)](https://youtube.com/watch?v=_FNM2TZZi-E)

## Summary

This video presents a data-driven sports betting strategy called the cross-market betting strategy, which leverages arbitrage opportunities to identify plus-EV bets. The creator explains how to use an arbitrage tool to find crossed markets where two sportsbooks have significantly different odds, guaranteeing that one side is a profitable wager. By betting on the side with value, the creator claims to have made hundreds of thousands of dollars over five years.

### Key Points

- **Introduction to Data-Driven Betting** [00:02] — The creator introduces a favorite data-driven sports betting strategy used for 5 years, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in tracked profit via Pickcket Sports.
- **Cross-Market Betting Strategy Overview** [01:00] — The cross-market strategy works for straight bets, round robins, and parlays. It relies on finding crossed markets where two sportsbooks have odds that allow arbitrage.
- **Arbitrage Example** [01:31] — Arbitrage occurs when two sportsbooks have such different odds that betting equal and opposite outcomes guarantees a risk-free profit. Example: Nesmith over 2.5 threes on FanDuel at +200 vs. under on Rebet at -198.
- **Identifying Plus-EV Bets** [03:52] — In a crossed market, one side must be a plus-EV bet. By comparing odds across all sportsbooks, the outlier with value can be identified. Example: FanDuel offering +200 on Nesmith while others offer +165 or less.
- **Practical Demonstration** [05:29] — The creator shows how to use the OddsJam arbitrage tool, selecting sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, and sharp books like Pinnacle to find crossed markets.
- **Blues Jets Example** [06:22] — FanDuel has over 5 goals at -115, BetOnline has under at +120. By scanning other books, FanDuel's over is identified as the value side because it's crossed with many books.
- **Additional Examples** [08:20] — Multiple crossed markets are shown, including FanDuel vs. SportTrade and DraftKings vs. Novig. The creator bets on the side with clear value, often betting the maximum allowed.
- **Christian Braun Example** [12:27] — FanDuel offers Christian Braun over 10.5 points at -125, crossed with peer-to-peer exchanges. The creator bets $240 on the over, identifying value from the exchange's odds.
- **Steven Adams Rebounds** [14:21] — Flip is the only book with the under favored; all others have the over favored. The creator bets $1,000 on the over, identifying it as the value side.
- **Handling Unclear Markets** [16:50] — When it's unclear which side has value, the creator arbitrage bets for risk-free profit. Example: Batum points, where odds are similar across books.
- **Speed and Limits** [20:43] — There is a speed component; odds can adjust quickly. The creator emphasizes betting max limits and using the arbitrage tool to find crossed markets.

### Conclusion

The cross-market betting strategy relies on finding arbitrage opportunities to identify plus-EV bets. By consistently betting on the value side in crossed markets, the creator claims long-term profitability.

## Transcript

this video I'm going to be running you through one of my favorite datadriven sports betting strategies. I realized I hadn't actually made a full YouTube video on this and I've used it for the past 5 years. I'm up hundreds of
thousands of dollars and tracked profit. Um I use a verified bet tracker called Pickicket Sports. But this is a data driven sports betting strategy that I'm going to I'm going to run you through. And again, like I'm a data driven
better. I don't wake up and place bets with my gut. I love sports. I watch sports, but I don't use really I I honestly don't really use sports knowledge to make my bets, right? Like 99% of sports betterers lose money
long-term. And guess what? They all watch sports. So if you're trying to beat the books, you need to use datadriven betting strategies that are proven to win long term. So without further ado, let's get into the
crossmarket betting strategy. This works for straight bets. It works for round robins and it also works for parlays. So let's get into it. So you've probably heard me talk about arbitrage betting. I love arbitrage betting. This video
though it's not about arbitrage betting, but it's important to understanding this strategy. So, arbitrage, here's an example from the odds jam arbitrage tool example from the odds jam arbitrage tool for game one of Pacers Cavs. Arbitrage
is when two sports books have such different odds. All of these books want to be unique. So, they all set their own odds. An arbitrage is quite simply when two books have such different odds that you can bet the over on one book, the
under on a different book, equal and opposite outcomes to guarantee a opposite outcomes to guarantee a risk-free profit. So in this scenario, I could bet Nesmith's over on FanDuel, his under on rebet, and if I do it in the
proper proportion following an arbitrage calculator, I'll make a small risk-free profit. And again, the reason that arbitrage betting is is possible in the first place is all of these books, you know, the market is so fragmented. They
all set their own odds. So you can see Nmith over 2 and 1/2 threes. FanDuel has Nmith over 2 and 1/2 threes. FanDuel has this priced at plus 200. Rebet, another sports book for the exact same bet is super different. They have this at plus
super different. They have this at plus 142. So obviously I'd rather bet 100 to win 200 on FanDuel as opposed to 100 to win 142 on Rebet. But basically this
video again it's not about arbitrage betting. However, whenever there's arbitrage, whenever the market is crossed, that's the word that I like to use. Whenever the market is crossed, you can bet equal and opposite outcomes to
can bet equal and opposite outcomes to guarantee a profit. We know one side of the ARB has to be a profitable bet, a plus EV bet, right? It's impossible. If I can bet the over on FanDuel, the under on rebet and guarantee a risk-free
profit, one of these two bets has to be a plus EV bet or a profitable bet, right? Either the over on FanDuel at plus 200 or the under on rebet at minus
plus 200 or the under on rebet at minus 198. One of the two bets has to be by 198. One of the two bets has to be by definition a profitable plus EV positive EV wager because again I could just bet both of them following an arbitrage
calculator and guarantee a profit. In this case the profit's very small but the point holds one of these two bets either FanDuel or Rebet has to be a profitable bet. So basically what I like
to do is kind of camp on the arbitrage tool. I put in all the sports books I use. Look for crossed markets. Figure out which side is plus EV and just bet out which side is plus EV and just bet that. So in this example, I played
Nismith over two and a half threes. You may be like, why did you bet this random FanDuel limited me to. You know, the sports betting market, it's not that liquid. You can't bet whatever you want on any bet. So this is just the max
on any bet. So this is just the max FanDuel gave me like 9375 or whatever. But basically this is a cross market. We know one of the two bets has to be a plus EV wager. And if you look at all other sports books, right, no other book
is offering Nismith's over above plus 165 odds. So, it's pretty clear that hey, in this scenario, FanDuel is messing up and offering way too much
messing up and offering way too much value on NISmith at plus 200. That's the value on NISmith at plus 200. That's the plus EV EV bet. Rebet has pretty similar odds to all the other sports books. So, in this case, it was pretty clear.
FanDuel's the outlier. Plus 200 is incredible value. We already know by definition, right? This is a data driven betting strategy. either the over at plus 200 or the under at minus 198 is profitable. And it's really easy to
determine just by checking the market, looking at all other sports books that yeah, FanDuel is messing up and offering way too much value on Nismith at plus way too much value on Nismith at plus 200. So that's what I bet. So this is
probably a little theoretical. So what I wanted to do is just kind of show how this works in practice. So, the first thing I do is pull up the odds jam arbitrage tool, which again is just going to point out crossed markets. When
two books are so out of sync, you can make a risk-free profit. I put in the sports books that I use that I bet on like FanDuel, you know, I'm in Virginia, so I use basically every book in Virginia, FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings,
Virginia, FanDuel, Caesars, DraftKings, whatever. And I also put in sharp books whatever. And I also put in sharp books like Pinnacle and Bet Online and Circa. Let's see if I have Circa selected. So now I have, you know, all these books
selected. So Pinnacle, it's not even a book that's legal in the US, but again, it's known to be a pretty sharp book. So I'll give you an example of a play that
I'm going to lock in is check this out for tomorrow. We have the Blues Jets for tomorrow. We have the Blues Jets game. FanDuel has the over at minus 115. Bet online has the under at plus 120. So, one of these two bets by definition
has to be profitable or plus EV. So, let's pull it up on FanDuel over five goals minus 115. And let's see how much they let me bet. So, they're going to let me bet 14375.
And again, we know for a fact either the over at minus 115 or the under at plus 120. One of these two bets has to be plus EV. We could even randomly flip a coin and just bet one side. One of these two bets has to be profitable. But if
you do a quick scan of every other sports book, I mean, FanDuel is sports book, I mean, FanDuel is arbitrage to Bovvada. So again, like if you're in, you know, Canada and you have access to Pinnacle, it's not available
in the US, but I still look at their odds. It's known to be a pretty sharp, accurate sports book. So I still look at Pinnacle's odds as a source of information. But you can see FanDuel is arbitrage with so many different sports
books. I mean, FanDuel basically is giving us the same price, the same odds on both the over and the under, whereas every other book has the over massively every other book has the over massively favored. FanDuel is crossed to 1 2 3 4 5
like so many different books. So, it's pretty clear that yeah, FanDuel is messing up. That's the side with value that I want to lock in. So, I locked it in. So, that's an example of using the arbitrage tool. So again, even though I
personally don't bet on Pinnacle, I'm still looking at their odds, their lines as a source of information, so I still like to have it on my arbitrage tool. So
we can go through, you know, a couple more examples. I obviously I don't want to waste people's time cuz once I start betting, sometimes it's hard to stop betting. But here's another one, right? FanDuel Pinnacle Cross. I could bet
both. If I was in Canada, I could bet both of these. Guarantee a risk-free profit. Just a quick scan of the market. Again, I follow a super data driven approach. One of these two bets, by definition, has to be plus EV or
profitable. FanDuel is crossed with Sport Trade, which is a peer-to-peer betting exchange. It's really clear the values on the FanDuel side. So, let's pull this up. They're going to let me bet
up. They're going to let me bet 5952. Nope. 59.50. I apologize. So, I'm going to lock in this bet and then I'm just going to hide it um from my arbitrage tool cuz I already locked in the play. So, again, we could keep doing
this with DraftKings. I mean, I do this all day long. Like, you can place bets on DraftKings. So, in this case, you know, kind of random bet. I don't even know what this league is, AHL. But again, it doesn't matter. It doesn't
even matter if you know what league it is. We know one of these two bets either plus 185 or minus 175. One of those two bets has to be profitable because I could bet both and guarantee a risk-free profit. So if I was in Canada and I was
like, yo, I don't even know what these two teams are, you know, I could just two teams are, you know, I could just arbitrage bet it, make a risk-free $10. But long story short, let's see here. Another one, another over for the
Blues game. So, it's pretty clear FanDuel's offering a lot of value in this Blues game over 1 and a half third period goals. FanDuel has this at minus 130 arbitrage to Pinnacle. So, either Pinnacle, which is known to be a really
sharp book, or FanDuel. One of those two bets is offering value, a plus EV, a mathematically profitable positive ROI wager. Because again, I could bet the
over, the under, make a risk-free profit if I were in Canada and have access to Pinnacle. So, you know, pretty clear value on the FanDuel side. All these other books have the line around minus 170. So, again, more bets is better.
Basically, I just like sit on the arbitrage tool and fire off as, you know, many bets as I can in a given night. So here, you know, definitely seems like the values on the DraftKings side plus 125 on the under. I could bet
the over on NOVIG, the under on DraftKings, make a risk-free profit. One of those two bets has to be profitable. Seems like the values on the DraftKings side in this example, but let's continue going. Let's
see if there's anything else on FanDuel cuz FanDuel is the book I'm I'm currently logged into. And then some plays I'll skip over or I'll arbitrage bet because it's not always clear. So like for example
here, eh, it definitely seems like the values on the ballet bet side minus 150 values on the ballet bet side minus 150 on Cal Maker under half of a power play point. Kind of random betting market, but again like ballet bet is arbitrage
to bet MGM, you know, a bunch of other books. the books offering two-way markets odds on the under. They have this around like minus 250 to go under. So, it definitely seems like in in this scenario, the under on Ballet Bet is
definitely the side with value. But, let me get rid of Ballet Bet into it. And let's see if there's anything else that we fall in love with real quickly. Real quickly.
Um, I mean, here's another one. It's not really clear. Plus 142. Like, it's not like FanDuel's a massive massive outlier. Man, there are a lot of books to go through. Oh, baby. So, here's one I I
very much so like Christian Braun over 10 and a half points. 10 and a half points. So, FanDuel is arbitrage to not only Novig but also Profitex. These are peer-to-peer betting
exchanges. And you can see on the betting exchange, these are peer-to-peer. Somebody is offering about $6,000, $5.7K on Christian Braun to go under at plus 125, which means that person is
trying to take the opposing side. bronze over at minus25. So, long story short, and again, the difference is Profitex charges, it's a peer-to-peer betting exchange. They charge a small 3% fee on
winning wages, which is why Profitex says plus 125 is the odds, whereas Odds Jam says plus 121 cuz it just bakes in that 3% fee. But long story short,
clearly someone has a very strong opinion that Braun is, you know, going over. So, I actually like this a lot. 240. Bang. So, there we go. We got another bet locked in again. I could have arbitrage bet it guarantee a
profit, but I'm not going to do that. I'm not logged into Caesars, so let me get rid of that quickly. This play I'm going to hold off on. You know, you can see some other books are offering better prices. I'm just not logged into them
prices. I'm just not logged into them right now. This one it's not really clear in my opinion. Batum over 6 and a half points and under six and a half points. Do I have no vague selected? Give me one sec.
have no vague selected? Give me one sec. Yeah, I do. So, Stephen Adams Yeah, I do. So, Stephen Adams rebounds. So, here's one on
that's available in basically every state. So this is Steven Adams rebounds. You can see flip is the only book with Adams favored to go under or juiced. All these other books have his overheavily favored. This is a cross market. This is
arbitrage. So we know one of these two bats has to be profitable by definition. And in my opinion, it's pretty clear that the value is on the over. Where is Steven Adams? Boom. A,000 bucks. Again, usually
I'm just betting the the max that they give me. So, in this case for Stephen Adams, it's $1,000. Again, flips the only book with the under favorite. It's arbitrage to bet on the line. You could bet both. Guarantee a risk-free profit.
Like, I could go over to this other book, bet the under at 929, make a risk-free profit. Look at that. Flip already adjusted their odds. They know I'm a sharp customer. They don't want too much of my action.
So, this play on pod again, I just kind of like to hide the bets where I don't have a super, you know, strong opinion. But let's see if there's anything else. This play I actually already bet. Bailey Ober over six and a half strikeouts at
Ober over six and a half strikeouts at plus 300. Cross market arbitrage. So, you can see my max wager zero because I already bet it. But, um, let's see.
has the underfed. Pinnacle known to be a pretty sharp book. They have the over pretty heavily favored, right? Where is where did they go? They may have just moved the line. But anyways, this is arbitrage. I don't really have a strong
opinion there. Obviously, as you get lower and lower in terms of the profit margin, it becomes a little less clear sometimes, but let's see this play. Chris Bubick plus 144 on FanDuel. FanDuel is
Bubick plus 144 on FanDuel. FanDuel is arbitrage to rebet. It's also arbitrage to bet online. No other book offering above plus 130. It definitely seems like this play has value. I may have already locked it in. Yeah, I did. So, they're
giving me $0. So again, I like to camp on this ARB tool. And again, why it's on this ARB tool. And again, why it's amazing is we know literally for effect one of the two bets has to be profitable. And if it's not clear, so
profitable. And if it's not clear, so for example, in this example on Batum, I don't necessarily really think it's clear which side has value. Like you can see Pinnacle which is known to be a pretty sharp book as well as bet
be a pretty sharp book as well as bet online. They have Batum's overfed right pretty similar to Rebet but then Caesars and Profitex have the underfed. So this may be a play for example where I just say hey I'll just
arbitrage bet it. I'll take the risk-free money and I won't overthink it because it's not clear which side has value. I haven't used where is Batum.
Batum Batum. So here he is. This is actually slightly different odds minus 108. So they might have just bumped it. I'm not sure how much they're going to take. They're going to take 81573. So again, in this scenario, I don't
necessarily think it's clear which one of these is profitable. So what I'm going to do is I'm just going to say whatever. I'm just going to take the risk-free money available to me.
$81573. The odds were actually minus 108. So I'm going to take the risk-free profit of $7.19. Again, Profitex says the odds are plus 113, but they take, you know, it's a peer-to-peer betting exchange, so the
way they make money, right? They don't make money when you lose money. That's why Profitex, they'll never limit you. They'll never ban you. So, you're not They'll never ban you. So, you're not actually getting plus 113. It's plus 113
minus 3%. So, Odds Jam just factors that in. You're actually getting plus 110. So in this scenario, I just arbitrage bet it. Rebet gave me this as my max. I just followed the calculator. Bet 74811 on
the under. What I have noticed about rebet is sometimes they'll let me rebet a prop. Maybe that's why it's called rebet. I don't know. So if I try to bet it again, are they going to take zero?
Yeah, they're going to take nothing. Okay. So I can get rid of this bet. And basically this is all I do all day every day. So Norman day. So Norman Powell
Kawawaii. What do we think, man? Let's see what else we got. So Bailey Ober, I already locked this in. Let me just hide it. My bad. Jokic. I don't really think it's clear.
And the arbitrage bet isn't even that enticing. So, I'm just going to skip that over Murray. I mean, I don't really think it's clear. Again, as you get lower and lower in terms of percentage, the same thing is true, right? One of
these two bets has to be profitable, but sometimes I'm like, okay, it's not sometimes I'm like, okay, it's not necessarily clear. Like here, I don't really think it's necessarily clear is the plus 111 on the under or the minus
the plus 111 on the under or the minus 108. Dang. Now, Profitex, you can see on the exchange, they just moved the odds, it looks like, to + 123. Nope. Back down to minus 108. So, let's see how much FanDuel even lets me
bet on this. So, they're going to let me bet 216 max. Again, all these books determine your max betting limit. Unfortunately, we don't. So, this arbitrage bet, I'm not making as much money. I'm only making
284 risk-free, but I mean, this game starts in a couple hours. 284 risk- free isn't particularly bad for clicking a couple buttons. Bang. Got it locked in. FanDuel just adjusted their odds. So, there is a speed component
there is a speed component here. There is a speed component here. What is going on on Kawaii? What's the deal with Kawaii, guys?
So, let me refresh this real briefly. So, you can see bet online. I Oh, it actually looks like Kawaii moved. So, that's basically what I do, right?
Sometimes I orbit, I take the risk-free profit. Sometimes it's clear the values on the FanDuel side. Like in the Blues game, I thought all these plays had extremely clear value, so I just locked them in. But that's kind of how I use
the arbitrage tool. Find crossed markets. We know one of the two bets has to be plus EV or profitable by definition.