[00:08] We have a banger of a market here today. 7612 here in the S&P 500. Another 1.4% right now in the Nasdaq. Up at session highs. Not sure what Gus and Arold are sands here. We have calls to print, mouths to feed, bills to pay in this
[00:22] thing keeps running. We have a special guest here today on the show though. We're going to take a step back from the intraday market action so to speak and talk with uh Meet Kakadia. He is the founder, the proprietor of the YouTube
[00:35] channel. You can find him online at Meet Investing. Over 130,000 followers. This not, I just happened to be scrolling through and watched his interview with Alex Karp, the CEO of Palantir over the weekend and then I found this on our
[00:48] production list for today. That's great timing. I mean, it's a pleasure to meet tasty live. >> It is a pleasure to meet you as well. But uh yeah, excited to be here. Thanks for having me on and excited to get into
[01:02] bit because you've obviously been doing this for a long time in a little bit of a different way. Your videos are not centered around like day trading so to conversations with important people in the industry and you're relaying that
[01:14] manner I think that we're trying to do similar here. But when you start try to figure out who to talk to and and what conversation runs important, how do those filter into your investing process? Because there's just
[01:26] so much information out there for people to consume these days. A lot of it can >> Yeah, that's a great question. I mean, I I I I think the the the the epicenter of what makes investing and finance media fun is looking for stories that have
[01:40] gaps in those stories. I mean, I think that's the the biggest way that people something that the market's not paying attention to and then try to bring more attention and light to it. I think in the age of finance right now where
[01:53] all that stuff has such an impact on financial markets second by second, post. You kind of have to look at what's happening from a multi-faceted scale. And why are the semis down if oil is down? Well, maybe the semis are down cuz
[02:08] the hyperscalers go down, the semis go up. Like all of those narratives kind of figure out how those narratives can then impact people's day-to-day viewing in the market. That that's been the fun of doing this full-time and it's also
[02:21] there's a new puzzle to uncover. people are always focused on the big names, right? But the real opportunity aren't looking or even talking. So, how do you even get to a point where you
[02:34] find a name that you like? It makes it worthwhile for you to discuss or you to investigate a little bit further beyond looking at CNBC, of course, which anyone >> Yeah, I mean, for me a lot of it's earnings growth. So, one of the names
[02:46] is Reddit. I bought it at 142 in the Memorial Day. And then I think it low bottomed out at like 127 this year, got a little bit of 180, so it looked kind of attractive. And what attracted to me to Reddit was
[03:00] growth. 178% EPS growth, 60% revenue growth, keger earnings from 2026 to 2030 by 30% for the next 4 years. It's one of those things where growth in this stock market is rewarded, but the sustainability of that growth
[03:13] growth that we're seeing in the semiconductor names is not rewarded as much. So, I think when you find a name that is actually showing real profitable growth with sustainable margins, that already gets me excited. A personal
[03:25] companies that are founder-run. So, Steve Huffman, founder of Reddit, him dive a little bit deeper into it. And then big TAMs, right? Obviously, the AI neo clouds get a lot of love because there's a massive TAM when it comes to
[03:39] even though they've been struggling over the past couple of weeks because there these names. total addressable market. >> Total addressable market, right. So,
[03:51] like there is a lot of TAM for a lot of market opportunity for the Microns, for Um so, the names that are profitable, the names that are growing, the names that are sustainable, and the names that are in the right thematic are very
[04:04] though that the thematic of semis has been something that I've not been super quite frankly, I didn't fully understand how incredible the capex story was going exposure, which obviously has underperformed a lot of the semi names.
[04:19] But B, I didn't realize the supply demand imbalance that was happening in memory or optics. And so, those two, you know, photonics and memory have been the so, it's nice to see the software names and the hyperscalers, which is where my
[04:31] it's obviously underperformed massively the semiconductor conduct names. But that also meant that July's drawdown wasn't as ugly for me cuz I didn't buy >> So, you mentioned, you know, you're kind of wading into my corner of the world,
[04:45] myself delving into spreadsheets after these earnings and and convincing myself like this is a really good story. I need to put more weight behind this idea. But How do you figure out sizing when you start to delve into something like
[04:58] this longer-term view? How do you build into that position over the course of >> Yeah, I I think it's incredibly contingent on, you know, your portfolio. uh buying 100 shares of Reddit is
[05:12] portfolio, buying 100 shares of Reddit, which would be 15,000 bucks, is, you it's one of those things where I think usually when it comes to sizing for me, uh especially if it's a new position, it's usually less than like 2 to 3% of
[05:26] And then the question is is the company executing enough for it to be able to grow into like a 3, 4, 5% position if I really have conviction, or is there a which is what I think happened on
[05:38] so, I added to Reddit at 147 on Friday because it was like, okay, stock's down a better opportunity, but the earnings were amazing, the stock fell 25%. fully understand the dislocation and maybe I'm wrong and the market's right,
[05:52] think that's literally what's happened with Microsoft, Google, Amazon all year. today at least are being rewarded for taking advantage of it. getting to here is a bit of a process, right? Some folks when they start
[06:06] newsletter do you need to subscribe to? Can you send me the scan? Can you just give me the secret formula? And that's not really how all this works. You the time horizon here, but I don't think in terms of sticking to process it's any
[06:19] investor. So, just how do you figure out your process? How do you stay What do you find yourself making mistake about and avoiding those mistakes in the the important things that we as traders have to do. Kind of be a little bit more
[06:32] you know, stop getting into those pitfalls so we stop losing money. this year. I've been telling my audience day trading in particular has really started to excite me and and part
[06:46] equity no options, but part of the reason for that is because can take advantage of a trend intraday. So, last week there were some amazing shorts, right? And it's just like it's pretty obvious it's losing VWAP, losing
[06:59] support, getting resistance, five over the nine EMA crossing into a bearish is a good short right here. And I think it's very encouraging if you have a investing account where you can take advantage of some of those trades
[07:12] short Micron for the next, you know, a year, if you could be short Micron for think the process is very similar for investing, right? When you have a thesis validate that thesis, you continually validate that thesis in the midst of the
[07:26] macro uncertainty that may exist. And you also recognize that and this is the is like are you buying these names for the next five years? Because I've traded intraday scalp. And you know, you make a couple hundred bucks, couple thousand
[07:40] a name that had a lot of momentum going up or down. But I personally don't I just don't. I'm not holding on to uh legacy commodity memory maker that
[07:52] balance we've seen in the history of humanity. It's like, I don't know if I can hold it for 5 years. And when I've asked a lot of my chat, um they also are years. So, like, Reddit I can buy for 5 years. Shopify I can buy for 5 years.
[08:05] of these memory names and semiconductor names. So, I think that is a you're usually not buying it for 5 years. You're buying it for the next 5 minutes, maybe 5 weeks, maybe 5 months, 5 days. But staying true to
[08:18] is like the most important thing about trading and investing, in my opinion. it's a little specific to folks like you and me, but I think it does broaden out social media, right? Uh when when you build an audience around engagement in
[08:33] >> What's your opinion on this? What's your social media as a retail trader, right? You're participating on Reddit, or you're on Twitter X, uh and you jump into the stew, you're inclined to give
[08:45] look at the general sentiment in markets, how do you avoid letting that noise of social media, of the zeitgeist, actually influence your process, knowing there. Uh and and I'd say this because I know a
[09:00] like, get off of Twitter. >> Yeah. not going to help you as a retail trader make better informed decisions. that the the the large the larger FinTwit community that's out there is an
[09:14] updates around what's happening and hear different perspectives. But you know, I single individual accounts. And, you know, I've been through this before, it's working, and people think you're like an oracle or something, and then
[09:26] you get one name that doesn't really do what the other names did. In fact, it >> And it's like, you know, your thesis on the first two names were sound, but it's really hard to bat a thousand. And so, I think from that perspective and I've
[09:38] a name get mentioned so many times and then I dive into it and I'm like, "I just bought this because other people were hyped about it, not because I love and I think I learned a lot from that mistake, lost some money on that
[09:50] mistake. This year, I really kept myself stringent to not buy the latest bottleneck trade that uh for some reason is going up 50% in a day. Like, I tried you made 50% a day, but I I can't live with that type of volatility." And in
[10:03] July, many of those things went down 70% in a day. So, I think it's really important to have your own process to kind of shut out the noise, but in the perspectives cuz there's been plenty of stocks that I found on X that people
[10:17] interest. Um It all It all comes down to like, do you have the independence to like think for yourself? And it's not an easy thing. But, I think over time and it it probably involves losing some money, you
[10:30] cuz if you can't, you're just never going to survive as like an investor investments. >> I mean, it's crazy that there's We already have cognitive offloading going on society-wide. Uh
[10:42] people looking for avatars or, you know, thought leaders. Oh, this person says this, I like what they say, they have I like the cut of their jib. So, I'm going >> Yeah. >> Uh and now we have AI replacing whatever
[10:55] remnants of critical thinking that were left over. So, just I mean, I I find it stick to your plans, stick to your process, and you have to avoid it here. little bit though if that's okay with you because those earnings are coming up
[11:07] tonight here. Um stock's up 1.8% today when we're talking here on Monday, this Alex Karp and I got the pleasure of again listening to you over the weekend schedule, which is odd serendipity. I think my team may be
[11:21] I'm going to look into that. But, the cleanest takeaway seems that he's not cleanest takeaway seems that he's not talking about AI in the way that most public market investors and company operators are talking AI right now.
[11:33] Um, you know, the you hear people like Dario to some extent and certainly Sam Altman. The models get better, so the value has to keep going up to a certain degree. What was your takeaway with Karp after
[11:47] about the AI trade now? >> I think Karp basically got the entire market with his appearance on CNBC a few weeks ago to to start really understanding that the value from AI is not going to the model layer. And
[12:02] ago, this is part of the reason I invested in Palantir back in 2024. The compute that's needed to create the models, and then to the application have been dead all year uh, because of the narrative that Anthropic's going to
[12:16] kill them, to make those models useful. The actual models producing tokens, in saying, aren't valuable for two reasons. Number one, it's a commodity, and more up to reduce the cost. We're seeing Anthropic reduce their cost, we're
[12:30] It's because they need to keep people hooked onto the models, and the only way to have it cheaper. Number two, the model companies aren't actually creating transformational change. I mean, I think this is pretty obvious.
[12:43] tokens, and they're going to sell you a process or a subscription or a workflow more tokens, not actually deliver outcomes. They're not judged on outcomes is. And so, as a result of that, I think the AI trade, once again, is bullish for
[12:58] the semis because you need the compute. It's bullish for the application layer. model layer, and I think when those companies go public, their S-1s are where is this revenue coming from, and is there an actual path to
[13:11] >> One of the topics that I heard him discuss, he's been talking about this for a while, is the idea around sovereign AI. It's not the most popular Obviously, everything's on semis and what the latest Kimmy model out of China
[13:24] sovereign AI become something that comes you think that the market adjusts to that type of narrative shift? >> Well, sovereign AI to me is once again bullish for the semiconductor stack
[13:37] hosting your own models locally, uh you're going to need GPUs, you're going partnership with Nvidia and Dell. So, I think that the market will think AI infrastructure should go up over time as sovereign AI and actually building your
[13:51] own models, hosting them locally is relevant. Uh but I also think the application layer will benefit from that in and of itself. The problem with the foundation models like OpenAI and Anthropic failing, which I don't think
[14:03] they have so many spending commitments. There's so much of the RPO of the Mac 7 that is OpenAI. So, that's the fear. Like if an OpenAI and Anthropic fail, I think the AI trade will continue because like there's plenty of demand for AI
[14:17] writ large and there's plenty of models to be provided. But, if the valuations expectations of spending commitments from the foundation labs, that's where >> I think Karp's, you know, Karp's point about the labs or rather the models
[14:31] most profitable, I mean, the refrigerator, the advent of the it was ultimately the companies that were able to produce the goods that were stored in it that made more money. I mean, like Coca-Cola made more money
[14:43] refrigerator, not the refrigerator company at the end of the day here. So, maybe that's a perhaps a proper corollary. Uh you mentioned tokens here models right now? I know Karp's been very critical of the way that the AI
[14:56] industry has shifted around token consumption. Is this broken? Is this going over to Reddit as an aside and seeing these engineers who are like, "I'm at the top of my company's token user board. I cost my company $1.4
[15:09] getting fired." It's like, "Is that the right set of incentives that we want?" now that's over. I mean, like I think token maxing cannot happen. unbelievable that companies were excited about their employees using all these
[15:24] "Okay, my employee will become 10x more productive. So, just let them spend the "Wait a second. We've got to orchestrate the era of token maxing is over. It lasted for about a week. Uh the market
[15:38] needs to actually see results from the tokens. And I think internally companies billions of dollars on this AI stuff, we we need to make sure we're getting the output that is required." That doesn't mean the ROI needs to be direct
[15:50] path to an ROI and token maxing, you know, doesn't give you that type of >> So, what's the next step for AI here? We just got through uh you know, you've with Leopold Aschenbrenner's situational awareness. He's been the poster child
[16:04] I know that he still finishes the year with an 80% year-to-date up move when appear that is mostly from Anthropic's private >> Yeah. >> Is the Is the Is that trade done right
[16:18] leverage? Perhaps there's a story in there. I mean, want to say that the AI trade and the semiconductor trade will continue because the demand for computers is monumental and the hyperscalers last
[16:32] spent. And I want to say the Leopold leverage situation was just a small of the system and we can move forward. And that's what the stock market's kind are rebounding. The problem is, what if it's not? Like, what if there was a
[16:47] little bit deeper of a concern around CapEx, ROI, etc. and this is a bounce, from their all-time highs. Again, my when Amazon, Microsoft, and Google say they're going to be spending close to a
[17:00] start to think, "Okay, like that money's going to go somewhere and that's going holding and hopefully the leverage is out of the system." And if there's not room to go higher. But, if that leverage gets back into the system or if the
[17:13] system's not fully okay with the sustainability of the earnings and you weakness. That could all push things down. So, I'm really impressed by the rebuking Friday's rejection of the Thursday price action that we got that
[17:26] was monumental. Sure. But, I think we need at least another week or two to see sustained. >> I think it'd be Listen, I got sucked into a long S&P 500 position on July 6th, and it has been a terrible month
[17:40] we're back to break even today. So, now the question is, well, now that I'm I'm going to sell. >> out? Right, yeah. Well, of getting out or letting it ride? >> I'm thinking about it, but I like to I
[17:54] charts are moving right now. I mean, like the indexes are shaping up. RSP has in this market have come in substantially. I mean, you look look at the P/E ratios for the Mag 7, for the S&P 500, large cap, the mid cap. They're
[18:08] all sitting at levels that they were at last April or last April. We'll just right? March, April. Uh and we're how many points higher? 16, 17% higher in the S at this point in time? So, to make the overvaluation
[18:21] difficult, and I hear all those people from last year saying, "Oh, it's just the Mag 7 lifting the indexes." As of Friday, the Mag 7 year-to-date return >> So, all of this has been This is all the breadth that everyone's been complaining
[18:35] about wanting. It's here. The earnings growth is there. rate is fantastic, by the way. I was checking out FactSet's report at the end insight report. They said that the Are you blended earnings growth rate for the
[18:47] S&P 500 is 47.4%? Now, granted, that's huge, and a lot of that's Alphabet. A lot of that's what we saw last week with Amazon. If you take out their contributions, we're still looking at 28, 29% growth for the
[19:00] >> Which you say you start with earnings analysis, and me Can you just what those numbers mean? I'm looking at this from how I mean, I remember in 2014, '15, '16 studying for the CFA charter and thinking stocks will turn 8%
[19:12] a year, and earnings growth is maybe around 10% a year. So, some of these numbers just seem impossible from what I know. >> Well, I mean, 88% of companies so far in the S&P 500 have beat earnings. They
[19:26] the beats of the past 10 years. So, it makes sense why the multiple on the S&P beginning to expand because the multiple mean, the story of the entire bull market, at least for the past year and a
[19:38] half, um has been earnings. Like, 2023, it was 2024, it was more liquidity entering the system because we finally got some cuts. I think 2025 was like, now we're seeing the earnings inflection. 2026, we're
[19:51] because that's part of the bull the bull earnings growth. We've never seen this type of earnings growth. AI is the culprit for it. 50% of our GDP is CapEx. That CapEx is leading to a lot
[20:04] eventual ROI of that CapEx in a meaningful way, but as long as that >> you know, maybe it really is that golden age for earnings in the S&P. last week? I mean, the market clearly thinks something changed, but Microsoft
[20:18] and Amazon are we finally getting proof of work that you can make money when you build out your AI offerings? >> I think so. Azure just hit 100 billion. quarter. Amazon was the one that said, no,
[20:31] Amazon and Google are negative. Amazon increased their CapEx by 20 billion. increase it for this year. And the you know, the stock went down a little bit, Jassy throughout the call was communicating why they are increasing
[20:45] he said, look, if we see demand slow off, we're going to stop our CapEx. But, can't stop our CapEx. And if you guys want us to accelerate AWS at 37%, the want us to accelerate AWS at 37%, the highest in 5 years, I mean, yeah,
[20:59] there's the ROI. It's coming through. Now, the ROI is in the cloud. robotics and self-driving and all that stuff, but at least on the cloud layer return on capex, and as long as that continues, I think the market will
[21:14] talked to Microsoft and Amazon. Let's do one more question as we uh go out the door. I'm thinking of Elon Musk and SpaceX this week. They have earnings coming up, of course. SpaceX is heavily shorted right now, about 25% of
[21:28] the outstanding float is uh is shorted. It's not a Musk bet because it's only 2.5% short float in Tesla, as it were. Um but there's been these talks of a a merger. One of the ideas that a few people that I work with around here
[21:40] someone who's monetized this view quite handsomely since the IPO, Mike Butler, handsomely since the IPO, Mike Butler, has been that you now have Elon Musk fan >> Yeah. >> Before, if you wanted to bet on Elon,
[21:53] you only had one vehicle to do it. Now, depending upon what you like, if you're there for the robotics or for the AI or the space stuff, you can pick and choose what you want to eat. Does Elon need to shut down one of these restaurants so
[22:05] he's overcrowded back at one, basically is what I'm asking. >> Well, there is an argument that he wants Tesla stock to go down so that SpaceX there is that argument, that's hard to avoid. You got a lot of Tesla bulls that
[22:19] positions go down. Uh you have a lot of SpaceX bulls that are upset because the IPO has not worked in any meaningful way. Um that would love to subsume Tesla and have just like Elon Enterprises.
[22:32] Tesla has a lot of business in China. And obviously, combining that with security perspective something that makes sense. stock's not getting rewarded that much. SpaceX, I don't understand how anyone
[22:45] getting ready to enter into the open market. So, I think both are like really tough things to touch. I think if we get super euphoric again, they both go up, Seven trading at the multiples that they're trading at,
[22:58] than Tesla. And then SpaceX, it's not even anything against the company. It's just there's 96% of shares. I have friends personally that have been in SpaceX for 5 years. They have told me a bit the day our brokers tell us we're
[23:10] allowed to sell cuz they're all been in a lockup. We are selling. to be up 120X. Like we're taking our profits. right now with SpaceX. >> I mean this is a fascinating
[23:22] joined us. So what's your YouTube channel? Is it Meet Investing? Is that YouTube and uh I do a live stream every morning and in the afternoon market open to check it out I'll I'll be there every day.
[23:36] 130,000 followers. You don't just do that on And certainly go check out that interview that he had with Alex Karp. Palantir earnings are later today. Uh Amit, well hopefully do it again.
[23:48] next time. >> We'll talk soon.