---
title: 'Plan BTC: Live Market Analysis and Favorite Altcoins for the Next Cycle'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=g_5z48TFLYM'
video_id: 'g_5z48TFLYM'
date: 2026-08-10
duration_sec: 3484
channel: 'Descentralizados Crypto'
---

# Plan BTC: Live Market Analysis and Favorite Altcoins for the Next Cycle

> Source: [Plan BTC: Live Market Analysis and Favorite Altcoins for the Next Cycle](https://youtube.com/watch?v=g_5z48TFLYM)

## Summary

In this interview, Carlos Lozano from Plan BTC shares his journey from the construction industry to full-time crypto content creation and trading. He discusses his daily routine, the importance of discipline and passion, and provides a detailed technical and on-chain analysis of Bitcoin, predicting a potential correction to $20,000 before the next halving. The conversation also covers trading strategies, risk management, and his outlook on the future of Bitcoin cycles.

### Key Points

- **Carlos's Background** [02:38] — Carlos started in construction, began trading courses in 2016-2017, and dove deep into crypto during the 2020 pandemic lockdown, eventually leaving his job to create content full-time.
- **Daily Routine** [05:35] — Carlos wakes at 5:30, goes to the gym, then spends his day analyzing charts, preparing YouTube content, and trading, with a focus on the New York session. He dedicates 85-90% of his day to work.
- **Passion and Discipline** [08:32] — Carlos emphasizes that success requires both passion and discipline. He shares a mindset of envisioning success and persevering through obstacles, as rewards may not come immediately.
- **Common Trading Mistakes** [17:10] — A typical mistake is seeking quick results. Carlos advises against trading out of financial need and stresses the importance of humility, learning from mistakes, and sticking to a trading plan.
- **Bitcoin Technical Analysis** [25:55] — Carlos predicts a correction of the five-wave bullish move, with a minimum target of $20,000 (60-65% Fibonacci retracement). He sees a bearish sideways market until year-end, with a potential Christmas rally to $25,000 as resistance.
- **On-Chain Metrics** [32:36] — Carlos uses on-chain data like NVT Price and supply delta to reinforce his bearish view. He notes low network usability and a lack of new money entering, suggesting Bitcoin is below its fair value.
- **Macro Outlook** [41:44] — He expects rate cuts only in response to an economic collapse, similar to 2008, which could lead to market crashes. He highlights uncertainty as a key market killer.
- **Next Bull Run Prediction** [50:00] — Carlos estimates the next bull run could reach $60,000-$70,000, possibly breaking all-time highs, but with lower returns than previous cycles due to institutional involvement and changing macro conditions.

### Conclusion

Carlos provides a comprehensive view of Bitcoin's likely path, combining technical and on-chain analysis to suggest a correction to $20,000 before a potential recovery. He emphasizes the importance of patience, risk management, and adapting to a changing market landscape.

## Transcript

to another afternoon teacher.  Today my camera is cutting out a little because you've taken me away from home, but hey, we have two amazing guys with us, Kevin and Carlos from Plan BTC. Welcome. Hey guys!  Well, good afternoon.
always, very happy to be here sharing another afternoon with all of you Carlos, who in fact had been requested by the community for a while, well, for a while, and this week, since some people already knew because we mentioned it with
you were coming this week, people were really looking forward to seeing you, so it's a real as always on the afternoon show, we're trying to get to know a little more about all the hard work on YouTube videos, the person who left their previous job
to dedicate themselves 100% to this. We want to get to know you a little better, but obviously we never forget about the market side, so we'll also be asking you what you think about the market in the coming weeks
all, welcome.  that I have told you. Remember, everyone here, if you want to ask anything, leave it in the chat, in the questions section, and give it a like if you like everything we're discussing. Carlos also sees the questions
choosing some to answer for everyone.  I already know Carlos because we met at an event in Granada. I've known him for a while now, but for those of you who do n't know him, Carlos,
who are you and what do you do? Who is Carlos Lozano?  Well, he's a person who has been working for many, many years, very hard, dedicating many hours to work, really, and prioritizing it over a lot of
leisure time.  Well, this is already starting from a base that is something that comes out naturally. Um, I started in the construction industry, through a family business in that field, in construction, renovations and such, and I started
taking my first trading courses at the end of 2016, 2017, but it wasn't until 2020, when we were all locked down at home, that I said, we're going to try to go a little further and it can't be that my business
lock me up, that I'm in my house and can't generate anything.  In my case, the pandemic changed me for the better, to be honest.  Well, I'm not happy about it at all, but it led me to investigate the world of cryptocurrencies more deeply. I only
knew about it superficially, because I had already invested in Bitcoin around 2018. But in of 2020, I really got into it. professional in the sector, and, well, without quitting my job, it was work, study,
study, like that for many, many months, until I reached a to do with what I have now, enough to open a YouTube channel.  And well, I opened it in April or so, April, May.  We kept at it, at it
, at it, at it, and in September of that same year I was able to leave my job to dedicate myself entirely to my passion, which at that time was the content creation.  And little by little I discovered another world, which is the world
of trading, which today is, well, it is my number one passion. And that's it, we're still here, man.  Well, I'm a good person, I consider myself a good person, I sing very well, that's what my grandmother tells me, right?  And I'm very much an animal lover, I really
like animals and little else, to be honest, trying to add value, a slightly bigger channel. Anyway, I'm very happy with my I want to send a big hug to everyone in my community and
yours who are watching us. Excellent.  It's curious how on many occasions we've heard that the issue of Covid, the pandemic, that pause we all experienced, has served many people as a, well, a catapult
to also consider what we were doing before, what we really want, and at a time that in principle or in theory should be bad and something fatal for everyone, for many people it has helped a lot.  So,
now, since you've been full-time for quite some time dedicated to content creation and cryptocurrencies, what's the routine of Carlos, the person also know from social media that you love everything about physical fitness and
taking care of your health.  So, we want to ask you, what is your routine? hand with anyone's path because in the end you get into a work rut and if you don't have an escape route that also helps you
boost your self-esteem, to see yourself better, it 's complicated.  Sometimes you're lost.  And not something personal, but something that happens to many people, when they rely on sport they give their best version at work and in their
interpersonal relationships.  Well, my routine is that I get up at 5:30, have breakfast and at 6:30 or 7:00 I leave for the gym.  Around 9 am I'm back here again, I have lunch and I spend my days looking at charts,
to see if there's anything interesting to share with the community.  I start preparing the YouTube video while also preparing the premarket for some weeks now I have only been trading in New York.  Uh, and well, you
content creator is like.  It's practically full time here .  I could tell you that one .  I could tell you that one day I might rest for an hour from 12 to night.  I don't really have a set routine, except for
Wednesdays, and Fridays. On those days, I spend 8 hours preparing the content, and I stop working around 6:30 or 7 in the evening to walk the dog, come back, and start commenting, answering comments, validating them, and
social media.  I think the world of content creation is a new profession that's really difficult to understand until you experience it from the inside, right?  I come, for example, to dedicate a lot of time every Saturday,
even some Sundays, to my working life for many, many years in the construction industry, well, the typical thing, right? You finish the ready for Monday, talk to the workers, prepare the tools,
has nothing to do with what I do now, man.  It has nothing to do with the point at which I work. Practically 85-90% of my day-to-day life is work, because I've reached a very interesting point.  I've reached a
point where I consider myself a big YouTube channel, you could say, but the important thing isn't getting there. You might get lucky and suddenly traffic to your channel, and people might start liking it, but the important thing is to maintain
that frequency and not only maintain it, but increase it over time. holy [ __ ], that's it, I've found the magic pill, now I just have to do this. You have to innovate, and that innovation is a process that isn't really seen because
behind the camera you're researching potential content ideas, how new people, and that's the research process that takes up most YouTube videos or operating.  So , basically, my life is full time,
uh, working, I like the gym, which I do in the morning, and occasionally I play a game of paddle tennis, and on weekends I like to be with my family, walk the dogs, be with my wife, and little else.  I'm a
very normal person, really. Excellent.  Um, there's something you and I'm going to ask you a question about it. It is, indeed, this whole sector is your passion , isn't it?  Whether it's crypto, the technical analysis part, in fact you're
on-chain analysis, which we'll ask you about later, but I big difference between the one who reaches the top and the one who falls short, which is the difference between motivation or passion and discipline.  And then I think
the trading aspect is also very closely linked, and I would like you to give your point of view on this point. Yes, look, I, and I'm sure there are many other people who feel related to what I'm about to say.  There came a
point in my life where I didn't really know what I wanted to do.  What I did know was that I did was doing.  And it's at that point that, well, for one reason or another, look, COVID locked me in my house and boom, this world appeared and I was able to exploit all
all the working hours I can now exploit in this market niche that, apart from generating a much higher source of income, also gives me a tech, I mean, it has no limits, right?  But it is impossible to
succeed at something, in my view, if it is not accompanied by passion.  Hey, there's a really interesting short that I shared a few days ago on Instagram.  He was a guy, probably a successful businessman, who said something like, "
work, work, work, work, work, I don't get anything, there are no I work, I work, I work, there are no results, but I'm a little better. work, I work, I work, I don't get anything, I'm a little better.  Work, boom, and
there's the reward, right?  And there are many people who do the wayside.  I've always said it, in fact, the Discord community that I've most... Oh, okay,
. Little things happen.  Okay, we're getting started.  I mentioned to the Discord community that we should start in Discord community that we should start in September 2021, let's
see if it works out perfectly now.  In September 2021 we also had face-to-face meetings trading, right?  In the end, I've seen hundreds of people starting out in this field, and the most important thing is to envision yourself because you're going to
have so many obstacles along the way that if you don't envision yourself as having already achieved time before you prove it to yourself, if you don't envision yourself and convince yourself that you're going to achieve it no matter what, 100%.  If you don't do that job, you'll fall
right?  So, there's a very, very important task that ultimately allows you to keep going all the way, and all those times when you don't receive a reward, keep trying, and that is to project your mind because don't
expect support from anyone, even many family members won't understand you. the average person, it's normal that those people don't understand you.  And how do they express that uncertainty?  Well, they do n't usually support you, do they?  Damn, you're definitely going to
insecure.  So, it's achieve it no matter what, because otherwise it's difficult to achieve it.  And obviously, if there's no passion involved, it's very
start on a path of many months and years of work in something that you're not going to receive a reward for and that you're not passionate about.  So it's simply a matter of damn, I like this, let's exploit it.
100% agree.  Even what you mentioned about people I think it can even be related to haters many times because I think it's a bit of a reflection of something that
like haters, would like to see, all the things they criticize and stuff, like, damn , look at Carlos, he's but I haven't put in enough effort to do it.  He creates content, and many people follow him.  I'd like to do it, but well, since I don't know how,
I'm going to take the weight off my shoulders, criticize calmer and I'll go to sleep more peacefully.  when it's actually much quite related to that. Yes, it's just that people find it difficult, not
least I'm talking about my community, the majority are wonderful people with a grateful to me, but there is also a sector, as in all communities, of envious people and in the end envy is something that is there and
until you get rid of it it is very difficult to move forward, right?  That's a typical example, but you say, "Damn, look, uh, excuse me, uh, that son of a [ __ ] in the Ferrari, right? At some point in my life I've probably thought
that, but as the process goes on you mature and you say, damn, how did that guy manage to buy a Ferrari?", right?  And that's the change in mindset that gives you at least a greater chance of getting closer to that Ferrari,
envious and are not able to go any further .  So, well, there are the haters and it's something that will always be there, I had a bad time at one stage of my something that I don't care about, to be honest. Besides, they're the first to comment,
huh?  The video comes out, people start commenting and they're the first to see it and then well, that's just how it is, man.  We have to live with them.  These are collateral damages Total, total.  Then you have to learn to focus only on the positive,
ignore the haters, and everything goes better. So, based on this, I wanted to ask you, what would you say that would even be useful for someone who wants to start or you say to the Carlos of the past when he was working at his company and
had that dream of dedicating himself to creating content and trading? Look, really, well, people already know me, I'm sincere and transparent, I couldn't tell you anything because in the past I didn't know I was going to come across
this market niche.   It is true that during many before, what I knew was that I didn't want to continue there.  I'm sure there are a lot of people watching us, because earning € 1,000, €100, €1,700, or even €2,000
here in Spain is a decent salary, but if you stop to think about it you say, "Damn, huh, how far can I go with this?"  No?  And it is perfectly respectable for someone to be content with that.  I'm not criticizing at all
, but it's also respectable that other people don't want to depend on the State, and have to find ways to earn more than the normal salary here in Spain, as is my case, right?  So, what I was doing was
the construction company to another level, but I found myself overwhelmed.  There were 15 of us and it was already completely overwhelmed.  And that's it, what I said reward.  When I've said work, work, on many occasions it's
simply about persevering in your daily routine and finding the market niche where you can thrive, because, well, we shouldn't something isn't working for you, it's okay, you tried it, man, get up and let's try something
else.  And that's where the real difficulty lies.  I wouldn't keep trying until probably in the future, global pandemic, he would find the world of cryptocurrencies and today we would
surely be back in the same situation. How great.  Completely.  Look, actually very similar to what Jiménez is asking you, right?  The question for Carlos is: what part of your trading plan has been the most difficult
to implement?  I want to focus a little on what has been the most difficult and little on what has been the most difficult and what mistake that people who are new here "Hey, well if I went back I wouldn't make that mistake."
make that mistake." Uh, related to trading too. trading.  Yes, with trading.  We're going to react with trading.  There are many of them around Uh, with content creation, it's simply about trying to
with some pathetic peripherals and little by little you research OBS, point where you stagnate, right? You say, "Damn, I'm comfortable, it works for me, don't stop, keep improving, man. How can I improve?"  It doesn't matter, just
can be improved and don't worry, through brainstorming you'll come up with 15 or 20 in one part of the process I perhaps got stuck in terms of editing and such, and I would have liked to have explored it earlier.  And then, by the way, a hug, Besai, my
friend, who is always there supporting, supporting everything.  Um, regarding where I've made the most mistakes or what is a typical mistake that I've made.  Then I'll move on trading does, or at least many people do. Well, as I've mentioned to you, or rather,
privately, I started my training in the trading community in training in the trading community in September 2022 with the help of I have always been very transparent with my community and have told them, look, it is
in technical analysis for many years and that will probably help me to achieve my goal before other people who start from scratch, but in the end are relying on these people, on these strategies.
professional traders also came to help us with psychotrading, and at that point we faced funding accounts. There was a two-week phase in which I felt the need to open a funding account to
tell the community that it can be done, guys, it can be done.  That's also a lack of maturity.  So, uh, that also fits very well with a very typical mistake that everyone makes, which is coming here looking for results.  You start out
and they tell you, "No, man, relax, in a year or two we'll see if you get a reward, trade, it's a profession, and it requires a lot of work and daily discipline." But hey, that's a human failing, isn't it? We're results-oriented by nature, and
time to it, we want to see a reward. Think about it: when we go to a job for 8 or 10 hours a day, at the end of the month we know we'll get, like I But in trading, it's totally different. Sometimes, by dedicating less
time, you end the month in a better position. And that's something that's hard to understand mentally, and it's something I would tell everyone: when you start here, don't come out of financial need or
a job need. I've seen the "I'll take six months off until I'm a profitable trader" thing a lot, I know it, and it doesn't work. So, it's better to get in.  Simply with a lot of humility, knowing that the market is going to
just try to improve, learn from your mistakes, and not repeat them , above all, and stick to your trading plan. From there, there are thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of hours of work, many hundreds and several thousand
reward. Until you reach that point, don't expect it. Great. In fact, I wanted to comment on something we discussed in the something we discussed in the previous afternoon chat with John Economist, and it was,
well, he mentioned that a very common thing, or a very common mistake, when people start, the first thing they do is trade because that way they gradually modify their trading strategy, and as soon as they see that two or four months in a row
are profitable, they think they have the right strategy and they're going to continue like that. So, I don't know if you think that's very common and that you everything about the market, even in a much more theoretical way, and when you
have the basics, start to...  Trading. Look, in the end, it's true that I do have a basic understanding of macroeconomics because I've exploited that niche market a lot on YouTube, although I have n't been focusing on it as much lately. And it helps me
, for example, an inflation figure like the one we saw today might mean in affect the DXI, and in turn, the euro/dollar exchange rate. That's good, but it's also can dedicate yourself to trading professionally without
needing a huge knowledge of macroeconomics. But the emotional factor is good; it's rare to go three months with a well, assuming that happens, the most likely thing is that when the
strategy is correct or not, because I've seen it a lot, right? guys, for all of you who aren't watching, who are thinking about it, there's no strategy that's infallible, that you can say, "Damn, with this I'm 100% sure nothing will work."
Forget it, because then there's each trader's individual approach. differently. So, understand that losses will be there with one strategy or another. If you fail with one, focus on a pattern
pivot to other strategies because all you'll do is and become proficient in that strategy and a pattern, that's where I think you start to see sustained results. But it's... I'd
say it's the hardest way to make easy money. Trading is very complicated. The emotional factor is very complicated, which is why so few people technical factor, it's all there. If you manage to control this, I think it's
end up generating good returns. But if you're an impulsive person, if you're not humble, if you're not able to learn from your mistakes...  It's very likely he'll be out of the game sooner or later.
talks about emotions, and knowing how to control those emotions is key to good risk management and precisely that way—you don't blow your account, you know when to stop and continue another day if you're not trading well . Well, having a
We were talking about having a trading plan with certain principles that you absolutely have to trading plan with certain principles that you absolutely have to respect. Okay? Hey, I think we've gotten to know you quite well on a more personal level. I'm
but in any case, let's move a little more to the market side, okay? And the market like? What I want to ask you is, Carlos, were you born with a bit of a BTC plan? The first question is, apart from the crypto sector, which I understand you are,
are you exposed to any other sector right now? I bought some right now? I bought some
was, well, I already mentioned it on the channel, and I started tracking other assets, but really, far from that, I have my stake in Bitcoin and, above all, liquidity. Right now, I'm at a point where I'm not
get nervous; I feel very comfortable with the management I'm doing because I'm not in a hurry, since ultimately my main source of income is going to be trading. Right now, it's an additional source of income, but as I
have more capital, obviously the return will be greater. So, the people have is, damn, if Bitcoin skyrockets, if Bitcoin skyrockets, what little higher, and that's it. And if it falls, well, you have liquidity to buy, and
that's it. So, uh, I'm at that point. Little exposure to other assets exposure, which isn't super high, and right now I have a lot of liquidity, which I'm also using for
trading, since the  Funded accounts have been wiped out, or at least FTMO and good opportunities in the future. That's great. And if someone asked you right now that they want to start
trading, okay? Trading strategy, what would you recommend to them to start from you recommend they start? No way, no way. That's it, that's a very good question because there are many
people who tell me, "But this strategy works for Bitcoin." Look, if what you really want is to squeeze a percentage out of the market, you have to be a whether you're trading Bitcoin or not. So, what I would
most liquid assets, the euro/dollar, for example, the German DAX, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq, which you know are n't going to take a sudden 3% swing up or down on a silly day
because the CEO  If someone from Binance decides to say something, I don't know what, they'll wipe you out. stick to solid assets, forget about the emotional aspect of the crypto world, just leave it alone, and be a mercenary of financial return. And
the euro-dollar lately. I've also worked with oil, but I euro-dollar, which is working out very, very well for me. I really like how it's performing. It strategy you use. If it's related to smart trading, and in this case,
liquidity, the euro-dollar performs very, very well, and it's the asset I would recommend. But like I said, from there on, man, you know what happens? Even if do, everyone's going to do whatever they want . I mean, until they make
the mistakes themselves, they're not going to say, "Damn, it's true, I should that the person has enough willpower not to repeat the mistakes. YouTube is full of videos of people
saying how to become a profitable trader, and many of those videos probably have valuable content, but beyond that, the value of being able to succeed or not lies with the person consuming that content, depending on the emotional factor. I
you mentioned FTMO, and I think that what was once PTO was NF. Something has happened with FTMO too Oh, no, sorry, My Forex Phone. Sorry, sorry. Yes. Oh, okay, okay, okay, okay. No, the people at FTMO must be
ecstatic because they've now become number one. Yes, that's great. Okay, okay, I'll continue. Next question. Well, speaking of all this, now I'd really like to do a little analysis of
Bitcoin. I know you're an expert on it and you're always up-to-date on your YouTube channel,  But for all of you here, our followers and an analysis of how you see Bitcoin, perhaps in the coming
screen? Yes, of course. I'm going over there. I'm not sure if it's showing up there. Let's see, now. Okay.
completely subjective perspective. You know how this works. I could could do the opposite of what I say, okay? In the end, the important thing is to have a battle plan, and based on that battle plan, you pivot
understand this; they think it's all a matter of statistical probability. Well, look, the scenario I have in mind between now and the end of the year is a correction of all five waves we've seen so far this year.
It's been a bullish period of almost 200 days, and what I would expect between now and the end of the year is a correction of these five waves, although I would n't rule out seeing new lows. I'm telling you this , I know it's something that hasn't
also important to mention that at a macro level, in terms of interest rates and inflation, we're going to see, with the refinancing of quarter of 2025, when they have to
refinance at much higher rates . We're also going to see, in the last quarter of this year, the corporate results of all those were going to grow a lot with artificial intelligence . We'll see if all this ends up
many things up in the air to say that we're not going to break through the lows, okay? It's a scenario I don't rule out, but I like to take things one step at a time because otherwise, I'll get attacked see new lows, well, a lot of people will say, "You're crazy, you're
crazy."  If tomorrow we see a candlestick up 7% , then I'm already having a bad day because of this, right?  So, well, taking it one step at a time, the minimum corrections I expect are around 60 to 65%.  And in this case, well, in these lines we
have here, we have the Fibonacci ratio of this entire impulse movement, which would be these five waves.  And now, from my point of view, we would be at the first of five, okay?  Now, notice that the
Fibonacci ratio of approximately 60% is at the 20,000 level where we have left normal thing is that if everyone expects that ratio, that point, that the gap will close, that it will be surpassed or that it will not be reached, that is normal.  It would be very strange if it got
there, reached that point, and then suddenly went up.  Okay, so from here on out, moment, after the rebound we've seen these last few days, is to see what the asset is telling me, because maybe we could have a period of, let's
see, here we could already be in a two-part correction, which would be an A, B, and in this case, have a C to resume the downward movement.  And this would be my wave 3, which would follow up on this wave one.  This
would be number one, a normal plan.  Or well, normal, normal at first glance, right?  That's the most likely count, from which a wave 3 would derive. And from here we'll probably see a year-end with the Christmas rally attacking levels
around 25,000, these areas here, but which in this case would act as resistance before the start of a final downward move, which I think would lead to the best buying zone, taking into account everything I
've mentioned at a macro level, okay? Then again, there are obviously many possibilities, such as this movement not going much further would give continuity to this wave one and we would see where this
imagine that we reach the 20,000 level and stabilize around here, we are being silly all October, November, attacking the 25 level and we cannot.  Well, we would probably have to execute this projection
So, let's say we're at a point where the asset is that we're in a new bearish dynamic that has nothing to do with the bullish one we've seen these last 8 months, from the beginning of the year until
August.  And now this is going to be a process probably of several months in downs, but a predominantly downward trend whose minimum target point in my view, in my view of these five
waves, would be at the 20,000 level. And if this is lost, I think a narrative will emerge that will lead Bitcoin to lose its lows, which I'm not the 20,000 or 1,000 level, that would be the next narrative.  Bitcoin
narrative.  Bitcoin .  It's a guaranteed purchase, and that's probably what will happen if this ends up happening, leading us to clear out
just a clear-out, if we actually get there or not.  This is the scenario I have in mind from now until the end of the year.  We already know that the halving is in April of 2024, and that we also have the approval of spot
Bitcoin ETFs probably in March of that same year.  And from my totally subjective point of view, I repeat, perhaps the narrative of the approval of ETFs is what will get us out of the lows.  That's the scenario
of the lows.  That's the scenario I have in mind. Excellent.  You also mentioned something important: that the Halvint is next year to launch next year, and that the US elections are
next year.  I think many factors are coming together that may lead to a sharp drop, allowing large funds to enter at discounted prices. CL is also kind of weird, isn't it?
Larry Pink's CEO, around the $25,000 mark, TV set saying, "Holy crap, Bitcoin is amazing, ETFs are weird, at least weird."  Well, that makes me think, doesn't it?
of what they say; otherwise, imagine where the business is.  Holy [ __ ], let's see what the CEO of RFINK says and I'll be a millionaire in 5 years, dude.  So, this also bothers me and leads me to wonder if they do
intend to enter the market, but not at the point where Larrifin mentioned they were going to Precisely for this reason, it may generate downward pressure from now until the end of the 2023, to accumulate at lower levels.  We'll see.  There is a
lot of uncertainty, but in the end everyone has to have their battle plan. I know that historically the best points to accumulate are the six months prior to the halving or so, or they are very good areas to accumulate.  But like I
said, nothing makes sense to me.  We are at a point where, at a macro level, market as it has since Bitcoin began, and this is also a factor that may change the dynamics a little. So, it's important to understand this
, I won't buy until I reach 20,000." Well, that's it.  Well, you'll probably be left occasion, because when you're waiting for the lows of a movement, you get left interesting to enter into that win-win dynamic; if it goes up you win, if it goes down you win.
percentage of market exposure based on their risk tolerance. This analysis is fantastic, I think everyone is loving it.  And I also wanted to ask you, since we know you're an expert in on-chain metrics,
well, expert, let's see, I try to study a lot every day, yes, but well, expert in the sense of knowing considerably more than the average person, and that's something we can already achieve, and you can teach quite a bit about it, so I wanted to
prepared or any metrics you'd like to share with us.  It is like to share with us.  It is also important that I, for example, uh, there are many people who undervalue, right?, the fact of being an analyst, right?  If
you're not a trader, you're worthless.  There are many traders who don't know how to do a good nevertheless they are real pros and make a return of 7-10% every month or 15, I'm making it up.  Therefore, the role of the
analyst, and especially the on- chain analyst, is also important: to interpret what the blockchain tells you and extrapolate it to the point at which Bitcoin finds itself at a technical level and be able to develop a projection.  Okay?   So from here we're going to start,
ultimately are also the ones that lead me to propose this, or rather reinforce this technical scenario.  The first is the point at which we find ourselves.  This is a graph that I show quite often on the channel, and it shows the
performance of Bitcoin's price from halving to halving.  The current cycle is in green right?  Then we can go to the two previous cycles, but I want to focus on the current cycle and the previous one because those are the ones in which the asset
was already certainly mature, we could say.  Well, look, we're going to expand directly to this entire period.  The fall, this whole fall zone of the year 2018, this was September, yes, 2018,
the lows, which so far have been the cycle lows.  And the breakout from the similar process, but if we go a little further, for example, the last climb, the highs, we had in a very similar stage and the last
downward movement, look, this downward movement we have seems ridiculous how similar Bitcoin is to the mean we have to have a
similar resolution, but it's curious because, look, on a day like today, 4 years ago, the minimum of this whole structure was being made before a major rebound, and now we are in the middle of a
.  Well, what this is useful for, at least it is useful for me, is Bitcoin from this moment in which we find ourselves until the halving, which following year.  Note that Bitcoin usually tends to have
explain why I believe we will not see this development, but rather a development similar to this, a bearish sideways market from now until the end of the year, or precisely this bearish sideways market whose lows in
this case were generated at the beginning of November and then came COVID, and perhaps if COVID had not come we would not have seen those lows. with this other one because I said before, "For me, it's more likely that Bitcoin
will have a similar trajectory to this one than to this one, because there are many analysts who say, "No, it's also possible that a bullish sideways market will develop, that we won't go below $25,000 and that suddenly one day, bam, it'll happen, okay?"
If we look at this graph, we're going to take the two phases of the cycle we 're comparing, which would be this area here in 2016 and this area here in 2020. Okay?  Well, notice that we came out of the lows, the first
rally, and from there we are in a very similar phase to the current one in terms of the days remaining until the next halving, okay?  these green and red lines we have here.  Green represents an average of 28 and red an average of 90. And
the NVT Price tells us the amount of dollars that are moved on the blockchain.  And by dollars we mean those rewards for miners, transaction validations, network usability, and it divides it by the
market capitalization, and this tries to give us a fair price based on the usability of the network.  And look how, for example, in the cycle we were discussing in 2016, the network's usability indicated that Bitcoin was
below its real value, specifically showing a price of 425, of around 700, practically double, right? because the network is being used a lot. However, in the previous cycle,
notice how Bitcoin, every time it tested the green line, let's say, every time it reached its fair price, had a certain rebound, right? We could say that it aligned with the price, with the value of the network, and from
there it bounced back.  That's why, since the value of the network was below the price of the asset, that's why it's more likely, or that's why in this case because the price of Bitcoin was adjusting to the real value of the network.
phase very similar to this other one here, the second climb to historic highs.  And in this case, what we have is, look, a network that has very, very limited usability.  In fact, it gives us a fair price for Bitcoin
below $0,000 and is in a very significant drop, which tells us that there is really very little activity on the network.  Is it possible to accumulate Bitcoin with the future in mind?  Yes, yes, all this could be done and I think so, and
reality is this.  At least what the chain tells us is that Bitcoin is from my point of view, it is more likely that as more weeks go by,
first target point that Bitcoin could reach?  Well, this line we , because they are at the same point, which is the realized price of the long-term operator or of the entire chain.  In this case, it would be the price at which all
average price.  It was also the point at which the COVID-related decline of which the COVID-related decline of 2020 stopped, and in this case that point is around $20,000 approximately.  And finally, this graph is the one that
catches my attention and also reinforces the bearish scenario, because on the screen we are seeing the delta of the Bitcoin supply.  What does delta mean?  The delta is the red part.  In blue we have the amount of Bitcoin supply
term trader, who is accumulating like a real madman, to be honest.  And in orange we have the supply that belongs to the short-term operator.  The include because it tells us about the new money entering the Bitcoin network.  This includes
everyone who has bought Bitcoin or who is entering the Bitcoin blockchain from 155 days ago to the present moment.  Therefore, if we see a drop in the Delta, it tells us that the current supply, that is, with each
passing day, is in the hands of the long-term operator rather than the short- term operator.  However, when we see, for example, as we get closer to the current stage, when we see a significant spike in Delta, while
marks an area of ​​interest from which new money enters the ecosystem.  It also marked it for us in the low zone after the that, for example, while we were falling with the whole banking crisis, Silvergate,
important rebound in the Delta that was entering the ecosystem despite all the food that was there and Bitcoin rebounded afterwards, just as we also had this rebound in the Delta when Bitcoin
was retreating to reach this low of 25,000.  Inflow of new money that generates momentum.  The influx of new money creates momentum, and we the difference with the current moment where we are seeing
this downward movement of Bitcoin and we don't see an influx of new money into the see an influx of new money into the ecosystem?  So, well, that's a rough outline so I don't bore you with too much detail .  It's a long-term scenario for
the coming months, but I have my foundations here.  Well, I wasn't naive; I up and said, 'This is what's going to happen.' That's clear.  Ultimately, the good thing about the chain's data is that it
gives you a lot of information, and if you look at the historical data, it will surely give you a good idea of ​​what might happen.  Okay, so you've said something important, that in the end what you realize is that when
capital comes in it's usually long-term investment capital, right?  Or rather, investment funds or large capital that buy capital that buy
happens.  I believe that in the following months.  In the end we don't have a crystal ball, but I think you've done some crystal ball, but I think you've done some very interesting things.  There's a
reply, is interesting, this is all well and good, but these are completely isolated pieces of data, aren't they?  He says, if you compare data as if it were an industrial component of the economy.  Okay, let's see if I can
previous halving a lot of printed money was available.  Indeed, this now needs to be added to it.  The state of the economy will be affected by the US elections and the Fed lowering interest rates in 2024, but we have to
well, I understand that he'll say it's possible we're close to a liquidity injection into the system, I understand, because of the US elections and the 2024 rate cut.
Ultimately, with each rate cut, we have to understand that the reached the pivot." They never said that in the previous two pivots always said, "Depending on how we see it, we'll raise rates, we don't like this,
no, let's not rule this out." And then suddenly one day they come and cut rates by 50 or 75 basis points, right? I think we're in that phase; in the pivot phase, it interest rates will be raised, and I don't think it will affect the market much more, but
inflation data; we had 3.7% compared to 3.2%. Lowering rates... I see one option for lowering rates, and it's because...  Some economic collapse that forces the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in 2024. And if that happens, I
2000, in 2008, I don't want to be a doomsayer, right? But in a natural period of interest rate cuts , we'd probably see it at the end of 2024, beginning of 2025,
end of 2024, beginning of 2025, to bring rates back to 0%. On a to lower rates, how would that affect the market? Well, yes, liquidity is injected not knowing where the real problem lies, and uncertainty is what
lowering rates because this company has collapsed, but what's behind it? Sell, sell, sell. Nothing, we've all seen the movie The Big Short, I think. Well, that movie expresses very well what I think could happen, and I sincerely
everything will turn out alright.  We might have a soft landing, but we'll see what happens. I think opportunities like in 2024 or 2025 don't come around the same macroeconomic conditions every decade.
in class we were talking about macroeconomics, right? And we were connecting it a lot with what you're saying, and the reality is that we're coming from a growth is negative and inflation is extremely high, so you can't
take anything away from either side. But what's key is liquidity, and what you're saying, if they can do QE or QT, well, QE and inject liquidity into the market, but at what price? Because they might reach a point where they have to
somehow, I don't know if it will be with the regional banks, somehow, so that in the end there's a market cleanup. idea, and what we've seen
interest rates have been lowered, the market has always fallen, even though it might seem the opposite, even though it should seem the opposite. the market starts to recover .
Yes, in fact, this has been the period of rising interest rates in which the S&P 500 has fallen the most. Normally, when interest rates rise, the S&P 500 remains rather bullish. In fact, we can go to the chart, or you can go
to the chart and see it, right? And the moment rates are lowered, the What kills the market is uncertainty. So, if we see, for uncertainty. So, if we see, for example, Beren Stearns collapse, we see
Lehman Brothers collapse, AIG collapse, where is the bottom? No, the market doesn't this.  Well, rates have gone down, but nothing else is going to collapse.  So that uncertainty is what leads to market crashes, because if we
no, that's it, with Liman Brothers everything ends, it would be very easy.  That's this end-of- year/beginning-of-next-year period is going to be more complicated than many people expect, because there are certain
crazy valuations or crazy stock market revaluations due to but now they have to start proving that it works.  As we have also mentioned, the refinancing of debt for many companies will
begin in 2024 at very high interest rates.  All of this eventually leads to a business restructuring, worse business results, lower domestic consumption, and ultimately
higher unemployment, and all of this makes me feel calm about the risk management I'm currently implementing.  But looking at it in perspective, man, I realize there are a lot of people who aren't, um, capable of having patience, you know?
He sees a Bitcoin momentum movement, today's and yesterday's, and then the whole long-term scenario he's built up, boom, he forgets it all.  And that's something I We need to improve in working on patience, in having a clear understanding of
our short, medium and long term scenario.  And sure, if certain circumstances arise, we can move, but we ca n't move to the rhythm many people do it, man.  Well, many of you around here are old dogs, huh?  Sure, I'm sure
.  Uh, totally.  Furthermore, uh, to do this part, we negative scenario for the market in the short term.  The side of the coin, when there have been crises or very
the best opportunities have appeared, right?  Now you look back and say, "Damn, during COVID, I wish I'd been around during COVID to invest in Bitcoin back then, to had the guts when Bitcoin was plummeting to 3,000. To see who
had the guts to put money in there, thinking it would keep falling. So, in any case, yes, you have to take advantage of crises, and well, in the someone here mentioned about DCAS, also taking advantage of corrections to
accumulate projects where you really understand the fundamentals and have That's it. Very good analysis, Carlos, man. We've been at it for 47 minutes now, so if you want, we can move on to the last phase, which
. We'll be asking some decision is. Well, the idea is that there are about seven or so the answers aren't too long, and then we'll get to the big one, and at the end, we'll take
chat from someone asking you something." answer it. Yes, perfect, that's why. . Okay, fine. First question, rank
the top three in your Bitcoin portfolio. alcoins I've been holding since 2021. We could say Teta and
BNB, but honestly, I don't have much of them. Uh, Uh, okay, great. Uh, second question for Carlos, the analyst trader. Smart money or
chartism? Wow, smart money for trading Wow, smart money for trading and chartism for analysis.
most profitable investment to date? Well, my most profitable investment to date has also been in the world of cryptocurrencies. I was saying earlier that cryptocurrencies. I was saying earlier that I started in 2020. I invested in Teta at
0.25, Cardano at 0.07 or 0.10, I don't remember exactly, and I also bought Bitcoin below 7000. Of course, then came the price explosion and I...  I was terrified. The moment I
saw things starting to go up, I converted everything to Bitcoin, and then I saw that it would have multiplied much more. But anyway, let's just say those three gave me anyway, let's just say those three gave me a good return.
coin, what has been your biggest loss in the crypto world? Whether No, I'll tell you the amount, no problem. I lost about €15,000 on Ax Infinity. On Ax Infinity, I built a team of 50 scholarship recipients. I started in October
2022, and back then, each recipient gave you a certain amount of money a month, 50% for the recipient and the remaining 50% split evenly between them and the team managing the project. My best month was earning $3,000, and then from then on, I
started losing money left and right , you know? Everything started to explode, $1,000 or  Euros, I don't remember exactly, but anyway, like we were saying before, work, work, work, and things will work out, right? No
better opportunities will come. It's interesting because you agree with John; he Infinity. I think a lot of people got caught out said, but anyway.
Next question: can you give a rough estimate, if you want to suggest a range? BTC price for the next bull run. ATH. Hmm. Bitcoin price for the next bull run. There are many
variables here. I'll give you a rough estimate, just to give you an idea. I'd like to reiterate that I think we'll start from a lower point than, well, lower than the current one, and that the next bull run
into the system as, for example, the previous one. Therefore, the return, in my opinion, should be lower, and in the previous one, we went up 600%.  I think, or well, around 1000. It wouldn't surprise me if
we reached the all-time highs and maybe even broke through, but like I said, between the all-time highs, between 60,000 and I'd say
Thirrium. Deum. Well, let's see, Deium, around 5000. I think the next bullish cycle could break the all-time highs, and from there, certain
corrective process, and we'd be more in a sideways market until system again in a way as significant as before, from current levels. Yes, yes.
No, no, absolutely, definitely, definitely. Okay, next question, a bit trickier. Do you think this is going to be one of the... Well, do you think this is going to be the last bullish cycle as we currently know it for Bitcoin?
currently know it for Bitcoin? Um, yes, yes, yes.  I'm clear on this in my mind, but I could be wrong. Simply because of two things: first, because in this case, institutions have entered
Bitcoin in a way they never have before. And regarding ETFs, it's important to emphasize that institutions really make their money from transactions. As collateral damage, we could also mention
they hold, which is Bitcoin, which is always welcome. But precisely that, I think, is what will happen to all these institutions, which I believe represent a large long-term supply. I think it belongs to institutions, and perhaps they will shift
towards ETFs. That's precisely what a more sideways Bitcoin can do, generating a ceiling and floor zone and increasing right? If we look at gold and say, " Damn, why hasn't gold
because it's highly manipulated. We've been in a sideways movement for many years. So, I think  That's one. And point number two, because the liquidity injections that have been generated since
2018—sorry, since 2008— have nothing to do with those that will probably be generated from now on, because those now, with inflation problems that we haven't seen since the
1970s. So, both at a macro level and at the level of participants, I think things are changing. That doesn't mean that Bitcoin won't continue to have upward movements, but I do enter a more sideways market, slightly bullish, and that
all these movements will become a little less pronounced compared to previous cycles. Great. We'll see what happens. Next question. Who did you follow before you started creating content? Who were your role models? Where
did you learn? You mentioned that you've been heavily involved with YouTube, learning there? Yes. Um, in the crypto world, I followed David Bataglia, and I also followed Bitcoin al Día, which...
Look, I have nothing against Bitcoin, so it's true that when I changed my position and became bearish, well, the guy never spoke to me again, you know? So, well, and then I
also consumed a lot of macroeconomics. Think about it, at the technical analysis level it's relatively easier to learn and improve than at the macro level, because in interest rates, how the economy is affected, like QT,
inflation. So I really went all out on Pablo Hill, José Luis Cava, and all those random "I'll explain the economy in 15 minutes" videos. Well explain the economy in 15 minutes" videos. Well , I watched almost all of them.
Great. What question did you ask? Who did you follow before you started creating content? So, for anyone who wants to take note, in case you didn't know
. I have to say that now I don't crypto ecosystem. Okay, okay, okay, fine. Do you want to say who you're following now in the crypto ecosystem? Who do
you think? Hmm. Well, honestly, I mostly consume macro data, but I especially watch John, I with him. We're like friends too. I also always try to help Gerard from your first Bitcoin with
always try to help Gerard from your first Bitcoin with very young guy, which is normal; you make a lot of mistakes in the beginning, and I see myself reflected in him to some extent, so I try to help him as much as possible,
and that's about it, really. I'm very much in my own world, man. I mean, not at the Luis Carpatos in the morning, that's something I 100% recommend everyone do . It's a 10-15 minute video where he
Goldman Sachs paper, in which he talks about market liquidity, positioning, and Jamie Diamond's comments, all of this is explained by this guy in the morning, and I  He gives a good summary, and that's about it, like I said. In the
rely on other people's analyses to confirm my own, but I reached a point where, well, I just compare to see if I'm way off,
but they don't hold me back in my analysis at all. That's great. Hey, so to wrap up with the last question we always ask, since you're a content creator, do you prefer a like or a subscription
to your channel? Wow, that's a great question, man. Look, I'd say a like, a like, because a like strengthens your community,
the community you already have, you know? Obviously, we all want to grow and get subscribers and all that, but I think that in answering this question about what a like means to you, if I said growth, I'd be forgetting the people who have
shared this whole journey with me and a like. I see those people who have been helped by the video, those people who like me, or who simply decide to support me.  The channel, I prioritize them, of course, over strangers. That's how I
see it. Those who have been there from the beginning. two and a half years now, man, and there are people who say, "Yeah, I've been following you since." Yeah, it's been a while, man." Yeah, yeah. No, no, the truth is our
community was thrilled to have you here as soon as we announced you were the guest, everyone was delighted, so it was great. Well, a huge hug to your I'm a really nice guy and well, whenever I can, we'll be here
thanks a million for all the content you create. For those who didn't know, we'll leave your social media links right below the comments so you content you upload daily. I know you
give that video a like so you can see that you support that content. see you soon, for sure, whether it's at European or at one of those events where we pleasure and you know, this is your home.
The pleasure is all mine. Thank you Eric and thank you Kevin and everyone in the chat, . Thank you so much, family. We'll talk soon. Bye. , family. Take care. Bye. Bye. Bye.