[00:01] good as you could hope for right now, in my opinion. So, and the price of Bitcoin So, clarity went through yesterday. I through, right? If it passes the house, I believe it will go through to the
[00:14] So, um fantastic news for the industry, Uh the banana skin here is that inflation is picking up and producer and gas prices. We know what's happening, right? So,
[00:28] to have gone fairly okay. Um it doesn't look like China are going screw through their proxy, um and it looks like China kind of wants something means that something will get done. Uh maybe a deal. And if that happens and
[00:43] inflation that people are starting to price in starts to come off as well, super bullish for Bitcoin, especially with the clarity that coming through. Um That's my assumption on things. I could be wrong. It could get way worse, but I
[00:58] just don't feel that. Maybe I'm wrong. That's just one guy's opinion. Uh the, you know, the the bad scenario is that it kind of just stays as it is. shortage of oil and gas, but the US now has
[01:11] going to buy way more oil and gas from the US, which means you can get way more gas pumping out of the US. Um so, it's going to be a short-term disruption, and I don't think the Fed with the new Fed chair, who's now been
[01:24] basically appointed, um is going to not look through that. He's going to say, to look through it." He wants to cut rates, but it doesn't even matter what matter if, you know, rates on the short end are 3% or 4% or 2 and 1/2. It
[01:39] What's happening in Bitcoin is too big. There's too much money flowing in. Also, I'll show you that in a second. We're right at the realized cap, or the true market mean. This is a huge level. Look where we are here, right?
[01:52] This is an unbelievable buying opportunity. This is a fantastic price. market, I don't think we got massively ever done ever, but we're at a right at the true market mean. Look at the previous times we're here. These
[02:07] were, you know, big bear markets. The like screaming buy territory, right? Red This is a fantastic. We're right at that again. It's unbelievable. With so much passing. Right?
[02:20] They don't really care. They, you know, gone elsewhere, trading other things. Bitcoin's at its trend, and you've got so much like fundamental positivity absolutely fantastic time. I think the
[02:33] trend. You've got strategy buying billions, right? Like STR going through the roof. Um, clarity at going through potential deal in the Middle East potentially, right? So, look, inflation's always there. It's
[02:48] just not invest because of inflation, you know. No, no, no, no. That That's always there. Um, and that's why you buy Bitcoin. Because you don't want to be in what. I think it's a a pretty good scenario that we're in, to be honest,
[03:03] right now. If you do trade Bitcoin, crypto, or anything else you can trade, the link in the description, sign up for Bybit, make a deposit, they'll give you way up to $30,000. To show where we are with Bitcoin now, and I kind of
[03:16] understand how like normal kind of everyday investors wouldn't find this interesting anymore. Because strategy bought a billion dollars of Bitcoin yesterday. In one day, right? A billion dollars.
[03:29] like, should I put 500 bucks into this thing? Or is it? Right? So, it's kind of not interesting from that point of view from totally moved into a completely different space. And the the sheer
[03:43] amount of capital that is going to flow in is is kind of you can't even imagine the Bitcoin is at its trend rate of growth. Uh, what a fantastic time to buy bought a billion dollars of Bitcoin yesterday through STRC.
[03:59] In one day. Now, you have to do a 10-year calculation on this, which uh, here. Uh, so saved me from writing it out. Uh, he's great with STRC and uh, and strategy and Bitcoin. Um, so look, he
[04:14] say that, right? Cuz you have to do the the 10-year calculation, which is yesterday, which was 14,000 Bitcoin at an average price of 81,000. Right? So, cash. He went and bought Bitcoin. Smash bought Bitcoin yesterday, 81,000, right?
[04:31] So, if a billion dollars invested, he has to pay 11.5% annually back in Right? But, the Bitcoin's going to compound each year at, let's say, 25%. Now, is it 25%? Is it less than that? Let's go back to the trend rate of
[04:45] growth. You're at the trend rate of growth. You're at the true market mean. So, yeah, I would suggest a 25% CAGR on that. If we're up here at 250,000, maybe
[04:57] not a 25% CAGR. Down here, certainly. So, a 25% CAGR on a billion dollars raised yesterday, 1 day. Right? Over 10 years, 25% CAGR of Right? Over 10 years, 25% CAGR of Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin 25% a year
[05:12] to the power of 10 years, right? $762,000 Bitcoin. Bitcoin that they just bought in 10 years is 10 billion. And they pay 133 million a year in dividends.
[05:26] So, the total dividends over those 10 years is 1.3 billion. And the Bitcoin will be worth over 10 billion. If you assume 25% CAGR and 11.5% uh, out. STRC is a variable rate. Over time as the market matures, that will come down.
[05:41] Um, and Bitcoin's CAGR will come down as well. But, you're looking at 1 day. Strategy buying a billion dollars which over 10 years is maybe 8 to 9 billion over 10 years is maybe 8 to 9 billion in just clear arbitrage.
[05:55] that that's one day that that's one day and the market cap is 65 billion here. mispriced ever. The the price is the price.
[06:07] bullish on Bitcoin to understand what's happening here. Now, Strategy aren't in the S&P 500 and all of their preferred are rated as junk. Every single month they pay the dividend. Eventually, they're going to be in the
[06:21] more. Um it's just sometimes the risk reward kind of stands out, right? When the price is low off of some far down potential war and that happens and guess what? This happens
[06:36] like all the time. The price is at the trend and you can see what's happening, right? Money flowing in. So, I sometimes the risk reward just stands out to you trade, right?" And I think we're at that point now. Like I said at the start of
[06:49] the video, inflation is the potential banana skin here now. We had clarity banana skin, that's gone. Um the meeting between, you know, Xi and Trump, that's that's gone now. It's fairly positive. You got the war kind of
[07:01] creating this inflation, right? Um which isn't great news. Let's see how that pans out, right? If you get negotiated settlement here, oil price comes down 20, 30, 40%, right? Um which is
[07:15] obviously off to the races. Um Yeah, look. Producer prices are just best news, right? But you have to also figure out what the Fed is going to do because inflation being very high isn't actually bearish. Uh look what happened
[07:31] inflation spike. That was when Bitcoin had a crazy bull run, right? Uh money printing, crazy inflation crazy, uh asset prices will go higher. Now, obviously the feed through is that if inflation is high, potentially the Fed
[07:45] supply, which is obviously bearish things like Bitcoin. But the Fed coming with a new Fed chair, you know, is he going to try and look through this? It's an issue, but it's always an issue, right? In fact, 62
[07:58] consecutive months above 2%. Guess what? 2% is fake. Completely fake target. That's not the real rate of inflation anyway. The real rate is the S&P 10 12% Um inflation is fake anyway. Inflation during Powell was 3%
[08:15] and the growth is 2.7%. So basically, all growth is inflation anyway. Because this is fiat. This is fiat stuff we're looking at. GDP is measured in
[08:28] fiat currency. You print GDP by printing the currency, enter and print. It's all fake. This is totally fake. Inflation is money printing. Growth is money printing.
[08:41] Fed funds rate is underneath the rate of growth and inflation. currency. Everyone knows that now. It's Bitcoin, different. The crypto industry is is un-
[08:56] uninteresting to me at this point. Stablecoins and payments, I'm not really financial services, I'm not really interested, to be honest. Block- blockchain infrastructure, I'm I'm not interested. Um if you're interested,
[09:08] just buy buy like a an ETF with the top 20 coins or something, but like Cuz then you've got like SpaceX coming in, Tesla. That's kind of interesting. products, but background infrastructure is like a snorefest to me.
[09:23] Bitcoin is genuinely unique. It's a different asset class, right? Um this is money pouring in is absolutely insane. I just don't see how um you know, the the next 10 years aren't absolutely fantastic for BTC. Trade Bitcoin crypto,
[09:37] up to a $30,000 deposit bonus from Bybit. Click the link below, sign up, to trade with. I'm James, it's for watching, and I'll see you in the for watching, and I'll see you in the next one.