[0:00] In 2025, US stocks rallied by over 16%.
[0:04] International stocks rallied by almost
[0:06] 30%, gold rallied by around 70% and
[0:10] silver rallied by a whopping
[0:13] 150%. Meanwhile, the crypto market fell
[0:17] by 10%. This therefore has everyone
[0:20] wondering, is there any point to holding
[0:22] crypto in 2026, or is it better to stick
[0:26] to last year's winning assets? And if
[0:28] there is a point to holding crypto,
[0:30] which ones make the most sense to hold?
[0:33] That's why today we're going to figure
[0:34] out what an optimized crypto portfolio
[0:37] for 2026 looks like. Allin, all out, or
[0:41] somewhere in between. My name is Guy,
[0:43] and if you hold crypto, this is a video
[0:46] you can't afford to miss. Before we
[0:49] begin though, you need to know that I am
[0:51] not a financial adviser, and nothing in
[0:53] this video is financial advice. It's
[0:55] educational content intended to inform
[0:57] you about the factors driving the
[0:58] markets and which cryptos, if any, could
[1:01] perform well in 2026 given these
[1:04] factors. If that sounds good, smash that
[1:06] like button and let's get into it. Now,
[1:09] I want to start off with something you
[1:11] may have noticed in the intro, and
[1:13] that's the fact that international
[1:15] stocks rallied twice as much as US
[1:17] stocks last year, and precious metals
[1:20] rallied twice as much as international
[1:22] stocks. Yes, some US stocks rallied more
[1:26] than international stocks and even gold,
[1:28] but the trend is clear. Global capital
[1:31] is rotating out of the US and into other
[1:34] countries and commodities. This is due
[1:36] to a combination of factors, including
[1:39] the US dollar, which fell by almost 10%
[1:42] in 2025, and concerns around things like
[1:45] Trump's tariffs and America's
[1:47] reliability as an ally. Whereas a
[1:50] falling US dollar provides a boost to
[1:52] international economies, concerns around
[1:54] the US's political and geopolitical
[1:57] stances have caused capital to flow
[1:59] elsewhere, boosted by the narrative of
[2:01] booming emerging market economies. As
[2:04] you can see, the outperformance of US
[2:06] stocks versus international stocks
[2:08] follows a cycle just like everything
[2:10] else in the markets. This image is from
[2:13] early 2025, but we can draw in what
[2:16] happened. International stocks
[2:18] outperformed US stocks at a level not
[2:21] seen since the early 2000s. Now, believe
[2:24] it or not, but this could be why crypto
[2:26] and US small cap stocks struggled in
[2:29] 2025. You see, all the world's assets
[2:32] exist on a risk spectrum. At one end of
[2:35] the spectrum, you have safe assets like
[2:37] government bonds, and at the other end
[2:39] of the spectrum, you have riskier assets
[2:41] like penny stocks. As investors feel
[2:44] more confident about the future of the
[2:46] economy and the markets, the more they
[2:48] start allocating further down the risk
[2:51] spectrum. The catch though is that not
[2:54] all assets across the spectrum are
[2:56] equal. For example, since the reserves
[2:58] of Russia's central bank were frozen
[3:00] following Russia's invasion of Ukraine
[3:02] in 2022, many countries decided to
[3:05] accumulate gold in lie of Western
[3:08] government bonds as reserves. In other
[3:10] words, more of the capital being
[3:12] allocated into the low-risk part of the
[3:15] market started finding its way into
[3:17] gold. It's possible that something
[3:19] similar happened on the opposite end of
[3:21] the risk spectrum. As more capital
[3:23] started going into the high-risk part of
[3:25] the market, it was allocated to
[3:26] international stocks and commodities
[3:28] instead of crypto and US small cap
[3:31] stocks. Some would argue that this
[3:33] capital went into AI stocks and there's
[3:35] certainly some truth to that when it
[3:37] comes to retail investors, but most of
[3:40] the money is with the institutions and
[3:42] it looks like they went into foreign
[3:44] stocks and metals in 2025. If this is
[3:47] indeed the case, then it begs the
[3:49] question of whether any of this risk on
[3:51] capital will find its way into crypto in
[3:54] 2026. Before I give you the answer
[3:56] though, I need to tell you about the
[3:57] Coinb Club. That's where we do weekly
[4:00] deep dives into promising crypto assets
[4:02] of all kinds, provide daily updates
[4:04] about what's going on in the markets,
[4:06] and reveal how we are personally
[4:08] positioned. So, if you want to know
[4:10] which cryptos we're holding in 2026 and
[4:13] which ones we're considering buying,
[4:14] then become a member of the Coin Bureau
[4:16] Club using the link down in the
[4:18] description. Now, let's go back to that
[4:21] chart showing the historical
[4:23] outperformance of US stocks versus
[4:25] international stocks. As you may have
[4:27] noticed, there's never been a period in
[4:29] crypto's history where international
[4:31] stocks significantly outperformed US
[4:34] stocks, at least not until 2025. Besides
[4:37] the fact that this supports the idea
[4:39] that international stocks drained
[4:41] liquidity from crypto, it could be the
[4:43] start of a bigger trend. As you can see,
[4:46] every decade has had its own investment
[4:48] theme. In the 1950s, it was European
[4:51] stocks. In the 1960s, it was US stocks.
[4:54] In the 1970s, it was emerging markets
[4:57] and commodities. In the 1980s, it was
[4:59] Japanese stocks, i.e. international
[5:01] stocks. In the 1990s, it was US stocks.
[5:04] In the 2000s, it was emerging markets
[5:06] and commodities again. And in the 2010s,
[5:08] it was US stocks again. Again, there
[5:11] seems to be a cycle. And this cycle
[5:14] suggests that the 2020s will likely be
[5:17] dominated by international stocks and
[5:20] commodities. At first glance, you might
[5:22] think that this means the crypto market
[5:24] is going to struggle. After all, these
[5:26] international stocks and commodities
[5:28] appear to be competing for the same risk
[5:31] capital as crypto. The caveat, though,
[5:33] is that these flows into international
[5:35] stocks and commodities could kickstart a
[5:38] new riskon wave. You see, international
[5:41] stocks and commodities are seen as risk
[5:43] assets by investors in developed
[5:45] countries, namely the US. However, this
[5:48] isn't the case in many other countries,
[5:50] especially emerging markets. This makes
[5:52] sense when you consider that for most
[5:54] investors, the safest assets are those
[5:57] found in their own countries. And in
[5:59] many countries, lots of these assets are
[6:01] tied up in commodities. Take the
[6:04] Canadian stock market for instance.
[6:06] Resource and commodity companies make up
[6:08] more than a third of the TSX. That's
[6:11] Canada's version of the S&P 500. To put
[6:14] things into perspective, resource and
[6:15] commodity companies make up less than 5%
[6:18] of the S&P 500. By this point, you're
[6:21] probably wondering how any of this is
[6:23] related to crypto. Well, it becomes
[6:26] clear when you look closely at the
[6:28] capital flows at play. Some US investors
[6:31] looking to allocate further out along
[6:32] the risk spectrum will invest in the
[6:34] Canadian stock market. This will cause
[6:37] the Canadian stock market to rise, and
[6:39] the TSX went up by 30% in 2025, by the
[6:42] way. Whereas Canadian stocks are seen as
[6:45] riskier by US investors, they're seen as
[6:47] the safest option by most Canadian
[6:49] investors. The huge rise in the TSX will
[6:52] inevitably increase risk on sentiment
[6:55] among Canadians. So where will Canadian
[6:58] investors allocate their capital if
[7:00] they're looking to invest in riskier
[7:02] assets? Sure, they could invest in other
[7:04] international stocks and commodities,
[7:06] but it's not as easy for Canadians to
[7:08] invest internationally. And commodities
[7:10] aren't anything exciting. They're the
[7:12] boring old backbone of the Canadian
[7:14] economy. It's possible, therefore,
[7:16] keyword possible, that some of this
[7:19] capital goes into crypto. In other
[7:21] words, liquidity started off by flowing
[7:24] into US stocks, then it flowed into
[7:26] international stocks and commodities
[7:28] instead of flowing into crypto and small
[7:30] cap US stocks as it had in previous
[7:32] cycles. As such, you could say that
[7:35] liquidity from US investors took a
[7:37] detour. It went overseas instead of
[7:39] online. The thing is that this overseas
[7:42] capital will need to flow somewhere once
[7:44] foreign markets are flooded with
[7:46] liquidity. And one of the places it
[7:48] could flow into is crypto. Aside from
[7:51] the fact that crypto also lies further
[7:53] out along the risk spectrum for
[7:55] international investors, it's also much
[7:57] easier for international investors to
[7:59] access compared to say the Polish stock
[8:02] market, which was up 45% in 2025. By the
[8:05] way, this begs a bigger question though,
[8:07] and that's when foreign investors will
[8:10] buy crypto and which ones they will buy,
[8:13] if any. And the answer here is
[8:15] fascinating because it ultimately
[8:17] depends on a combination of two factors.
[8:20] Which countries are opening their doors
[8:22] to crypto and which particular cryptos
[8:25] investors in those jurisdictions are
[8:27] interested in. Suppose we're dealing
[8:29] with a European investor. The DAX, the
[8:32] German stock market index, is hitting
[8:33] new all-time highs, and they want to
[8:35] invest some of this capital out along
[8:37] the risk spectrum into crypto. Now, as
[8:40] some of you will know, the EU recently
[8:42] introduced its markets in crypto assets
[8:44] or MIA regulation, which creates clarity
[8:47] for crypto, particularly altcoins
[8:49] listing on exchanges. What you may not
[8:51] know though is that the EU also
[8:53] introduced strict travel rule
[8:55] regulations which make it very
[8:57] inconvenient to move crypto off
[8:59] exchanges. At the same time, many
[9:02] European investors are environmentally
[9:04] conscious, if you catch my drift. This
[9:06] means that European investors are likely
[9:08] to stay away from crypto niches like
[9:10] DeFi and could even steer clear of
[9:12] proofof work cryptos like Bitcoin due to
[9:15] their resource inensive mining.
[9:17] Logically, this means that most of the
[9:19] risk on capital from European investors
[9:21] will probably find its way into larger
[9:23] altcoins which are easily accessible on
[9:25] exchanges, including on traditional
[9:27] centralized exchanges. As it so happens,
[9:30] there are a lot of altcoin ETPs listed
[9:33] in Europe. Beyond Bitcoin, the largest
[9:36] ETPs by assets under management are
[9:38] those for Ethereum, Salana, and XRP. So,
[9:41] it stands to reason that ETH, Soul, XRP,
[9:45] and other large altcoins will start to
[9:47] get investment once European stock
[9:49] indices are saturated with enough
[9:51] liquidity that European investors start
[9:53] going further out along the risk
[9:55] spectrum, whenever that may be. If we
[9:58] had to guess, the boom in European stock
[10:00] markets will probably happen once the
[10:02] war in Ukraine is over, which will
[10:05] hopefully be by the end of 2026. It goes
[10:08] without saying that it would take time
[10:10] for liquidity in European markets to
[10:12] rise after that. And it would also take
[10:14] time for that liquidity to find its way
[10:16] into crypto. But we'll come back to the
[10:19] time it will take for that to happen a
[10:20] little bit later on. First though, I
[10:23] want to drive the point home. Suppose
[10:25] instead we're dealing with a South
[10:27] Korean investor. The Cosby, the South
[10:30] Korean stock market index, is hitting
[10:32] new all-time highs and they want to
[10:33] invest some of this capital out along
[10:35] the risk spectrum into crypto. Similar
[10:37] to Europe, South Korea has incredibly
[10:40] strict regulations that make it very
[10:42] difficult to do onchain things like DeFi
[10:45] and invest in cryptos that aren't on
[10:47] centralized exchanges. The difference is
[10:49] that South Koreans invest almost
[10:52] exclusively in altcoins, presumably
[10:54] because they have smaller price tags and
[10:56] are perceived as having more upside
[10:58] potential. As a fun fact, XRP is the
[11:01] most traded cryptocurrency in South
[11:03] Korea by a wide margin. And if you look
[11:06] at the top trading pairs on South Korean
[11:08] crypto exchanges like Upbit, it's mostly
[11:11] obscure small cap altcoins we've never
[11:13] even heard about. Once again, the main
[11:16] question here is time. When will South
[11:19] Korean capital flow into the crypto
[11:20] market in size? Well, believe it or not,
[11:23] but it could be a decline in tensions
[11:25] with North Korea. To bring you up to
[11:27] speed, the new South Korean
[11:28] administration wants to become
[11:30] friendlier with North Korea and has even
[11:32] asked the Chinese government to help.
[11:34] So, a decline in tensions would likely
[11:37] result in more investment and
[11:39] speculation. And regarding which cryptos
[11:42] South Koreans would buy, trading volume
[11:44] suggests XRP and ETH top the list.
[11:47] Though this list is subject to change,
[11:49] and everything else that comes after it
[11:51] is, well, anyone's guess. By now though,
[11:54] it should be clear that investors in
[11:56] many countries seem to be primarily
[11:58] interested in altcoins. Be it because of
[12:01] environmental sensibilities or the
[12:03] perception that altcoins offer higher
[12:05] returns. And this brings me to the big
[12:07] question and that's how we can use all
[12:09] of this information to construct a
[12:11] crypto portfolio for 2026. The answer
[12:15] depends on where we are in the process
[12:17] we just discussed. Specifically, how
[12:19] long it will take for global liquidity
[12:21] to finish flowing into international
[12:23] markets and commodities and when this
[12:25] international liquidity would start
[12:26] flowing into crypto, if at all. Well, if
[12:29] the DAX and Cosby are anything to go by,
[12:32] many international stock markets have
[12:34] only just started breaking out, which is
[12:36] remarkable when you remember that they
[12:38] already beat US stocks in 2025.
[12:41] Unfortunately, this means that
[12:43] international liquidity is unlikely to
[12:45] flow into crypto anytime soon, but there
[12:48] are signs that the altcoin bias of
[12:50] international investors is already
[12:52] starting to reflect in the charts. If
[12:54] you're addicted to social media, then
[12:56] chances are you've seen this chart of
[12:58] others BTC. To refresh your memory,
[13:01] others measures the combined market cap
[13:03] of cryptos outside of the top 10. So,
[13:06] altcoins. So, what others BTC shows us
[13:09] is the strength of smaller altcoins
[13:12] relative to Bitcoin. As you can see,
[13:14] altcoins were weakening against Bitcoin
[13:16] until recently, and it looks like this
[13:19] viral ratio has bottomed out. Naturally,
[13:22] this has led to speculation that there's
[13:24] going to be a massive breakout in
[13:25] altcoins relative to Bitcoin in the
[13:27] coming weeks and months, which seems
[13:29] impossible given where we are in the
[13:31] crypto market cycle, as well as the
[13:33] liquidity cycle. That is until you
[13:36] realize that others doesn't just include
[13:38] altcoins. It also includes stable coins
[13:41] and tokenized assets, notably tokenized
[13:44] gold. So then what happens if precious
[13:48] metals keep rallying and we start seeing
[13:50] tokenized silver, tokenized platinum and
[13:53] other tokens for precious metals?
[13:55] Obviously others would rise in both fiat
[13:57] terms and relative to BTC. This is
[14:00] incredibly important to understand as
[14:02] it's something that everyone seems to be
[14:04] missing. Others BTC could rise
[14:07] significantly in 2026, but it may not be
[14:10] because of growth in altcoins. It could
[14:13] be because of the growth in stable coins
[14:15] and tokenized assets which happen to be
[14:17] of interest to investors in the US right
[14:19] now and have been highlighted as key
[14:21] themes for 2026 by institutions. In
[14:25] practical terms, this means that the
[14:26] optimal crypto portfolio in 2026 could
[14:29] be one that's focused on stable coins
[14:31] and tokenized assets simply because some
[14:34] of the risk on capital could go into
[14:37] these niches. And of course, most of the
[14:39] stable coins and tokenized assets
[14:41] currently exist on Ethereum. It should
[14:44] come as no surprise then that ETH BTC
[14:46] has been rising since last summer when
[14:48] the Genius Act regulating stable coins
[14:51] was passed in the US. What is surprising
[14:54] is that ETH BTC has technically been in
[14:56] an uptrend since April of 2025. As crazy
[15:00] as it sounds, this means there's been
[15:02] rotation into ETH beneath the surface.
[15:05] Things get even crazier when you
[15:07] consider what this means for altcoin
[15:09] rotation. In case you forgot, it's
[15:12] assumed that any money that goes into
[15:13] crypto first gets invested into BTC,
[15:16] then it rotates into ETH, and then into
[15:19] other altcoins. Upon closer inspection,
[15:21] though, you realize this rotation is a
[15:23] bit more complicated, but it nonetheless
[15:26] suggests that the rotation from BTC into
[15:28] ETH could have only begun in the spring
[15:31] of 2025. Again, it sounds crazy, but
[15:34] recall the nuances I just explained.
[15:36] Stable coins and tokenized assets were
[15:39] key themes for institutional investors
[15:41] in 2025 and have been underscored as key
[15:43] themes for 2026. Most stable coins and
[15:46] tokenized assets exist on Ethereum. So,
[15:49] it makes sense that ETH has strengthened
[15:51] relative to BTC in recent months. And
[15:53] the same is true for others BTC rising
[15:56] due to stable coins and tokenized
[15:58] assets. So, does this mean go allin on
[16:02] ETH stable coins and tokenized assets
[16:04] for 2026? Not so fast. You see, for
[16:08] starters, ETH BTC and others BTC don't
[16:11] tell us anything about the prices of any
[16:13] of the assets in question. If BTC fell
[16:16] by 55% and ETH fell by 50%, ETH BTC
[16:21] would rise. Similarly, if BTC fell by
[16:23] 55% and most altcoins fell by 70%,
[16:26] others BTC could still rise if the
[16:29] market cap of others is growing from
[16:31] stable coins and tokenized RWA. Well,
[16:34] historical crypto cycles and the
[16:36] liquidity cycle suggest 2026 is going to
[16:39] be a bearish year for BTC, ETH, and
[16:42] altcoins regardless of what ratios like
[16:45] ETHBTC and others BTC suggest. But
[16:48] before you go all into stable coins
[16:50] though, there's another nuance to keep
[16:52] in mind. Whether it makes sense to go
[16:54] into stable coins or not fundamentally
[16:56] depends on how the US dollar's value
[16:59] will change in 2026 versus the currency
[17:02] that you use. If you use the euro and go
[17:04] all into stable coins and the US dollar
[17:07] falls in 2026, you'll lose money in real
[17:10] terms. Conversely, if you use the euro
[17:12] and go all into stable coins and the US
[17:14] dollar rises in 2026, you'll make money
[17:16] in real terms. Before you ask, we're not
[17:19] sure where the US dollar will go in
[17:21] 2026, but historically bare market years
[17:24] corresponded to a rise in the US dollar
[17:27] and therefore this could happen in 2026.
[17:31] And what about tokenized assets then?
[17:33] Well, it's a similar story to stable
[17:35] coins. If you go all into tokenized US
[17:38] bonds and US bond prices fall, you'll
[17:40] lose money and vice versa. Fortunately,
[17:43] we're likely to see new natively issued
[17:45] tokenized assets like companies
[17:47] launching their stocks as digital tokens
[17:49] instead of physical shares. So getting
[17:52] in early on these opportunities could be
[17:54] lucrative. You'll have to dy about
[17:56] those. So then what does the optimal
[17:59] crypto portfolio for 2026 look like
[18:02] given these dynamics? Well, at the end
[18:05] of the day, it depends on your risk
[18:07] tolerance and time horizon. If you don't
[18:09] mind holding ETH for a couple of years,
[18:11] even if prices fall another 50 to 70%,
[18:14] then it could potentially be a better
[18:16] portfolio anchor than BTC. If you can't
[18:19] stand that volatility and can't stand
[18:21] waiting, then stable coins may be a
[18:23] better anchor. Just keep in mind though
[18:25] that US dollar stable coins could still
[18:28] lose you money depending on exchange
[18:30] rates. The same goes for tokenized gold,
[18:33] which could be another potential anchor
[18:35] depending on your time horizon and risk
[18:37] tolerance. In a perfect world, it would
[18:39] be possible to invest in companies that
[18:41] are involved in stable coins and
[18:43] tokenization, but most of these
[18:45] companies are highly correlated to
[18:47] crypto. In theory, stocks like Circle
[18:49] and Coinbase would be good bets for 2026
[18:52] since Circle issues USDC and Coinbase
[18:55] will offer tokenized RWA trading and
[18:58] presumably issuance. In reality though,
[19:00] they could get dragged down with the
[19:02] rest of the crypto market if crypto
[19:04] enters a bare market later this year,
[19:06] which is likely historically speaking.
[19:09] The silver lining though is that the
[19:10] 2027 2028 period is shaping up to be
[19:14] explosive. By that point, most countries
[19:16] should have reasonable crypto
[19:18] regulations in place. And factors making
[19:20] international investors hesitant to
[19:22] allocate into risk assets like the war
[19:24] in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East,
[19:26] and issues in Asia will hopefully be
[19:29] resolved. This will make it possible for
[19:31] liquidity to flow from international
[19:33] markets into crypto by the end of the
[19:35] decade when international stocks will
[19:38] likely peak. So, TLDDR, pay attention to
[19:41] assets related to stable coins and
[19:43] tokenization in 2026, and watch altcoins
[19:47] closely as we approach 2027, starting
[19:50] with Ethereum. And be sure to watch the
[19:52] Coin Bureau so you know where we are in
[19:55] this process. And if you want to know
[19:57] what other themes investors are watching
[19:59] in 2026 and which cryptos could benefit,
[20:02] then be sure to check out this video
[20:04] here. And if you made it this far, thank
[20:06] you so much for watching and I'll see
[20:07] you in the next one. This is guy. Over
[20:10] and out.