[00:01] spring right now. The government shutdown, the TGA rebuild, and the step up in issuance have been holding liquidity back, but all of that is about to flip. The shutdown is coming to an end. QT is finally stopping and we're
[00:14] primed for an absolutely insane liquidity wave going into 2026. And in my opinion, that means that the bottom is in and I'm finally ready to start going through the exact details as to why I believe the bottom is firmly in
[00:29] place and the exact catalyst that I believe are about to unleash a liquidity wave unlike anything we've seen since 2021. As I've been saying over and over for months now, the current weakness that the market is going through is a
[00:41] story of weak liquidity. We had weak liquidity from the TGA rebuild. We had issuance. And then we had exasperated weak liquidity from the government shutdown. And with the TGA rebuild finished and the step up in issuance
[00:54] finally being absorbed by global market plumbing, the only thing that really matters right now is the government shutdown. That has been the number one thing that I've been watching as to when the market would start to turn higher.
[01:07] And right after Bitcoin went down to $98,000 last week, I posted this on X. If the shutdown was over tomorrow, I'd say the bottom was in. With the odds though, I think there is still ample
[01:20] I had said that was because back then when I posted that, the odds for the shutdown ending soon were really low and the odds for it extending past November 16th were really high. And the longer
[01:33] that the government shutdown goes on, the weaker and the more fragile the liquidity environment gets. The US government spends a ridiculous amount of money and shutting that off after we had this massive TGA rebuild, which is
[01:46] basically like imagine like this prolonged drought period and then this you know, shut off the main water valve. It's not a recipe for for good things to happen in the markets. It's a recipe for weak and fragile liquidity. And so even
[02:01] though uh when we went down to 98K, it really did feel like a bottoming day because in terms of sentiment, I just couldn't see how it could get worse, I if the government shutdown did really extend past November 16th, things could
[02:15] still get worse. However, as of yesterday, the odds started to flip going to finally get a deal to end the government shutdown to where as of 88% that we see the government shutdown end between November 12th and the 15th
[02:30] with Poly Market predicting it should be around November 14th. And for me, that felt like we'd bottomed in terms of sentiment when we went down to 98K because there was just too many people throwing a fit on X and giving up or
[02:42] I' I've been through quite a few bottoming processes and it felt like on point for what a bottom a market bottom typically feels like and the end of the likely bottomed in terms of liquidity as well. And to clarify when I say the
[02:56] Bitcoin price. I'm saying we're not reason to go lower than that outside of some sort of crazy headline event like China invades Taiwan or some insane thing. uh there's no reason uh because
[03:10] liquidity environment is now flipping from a fragile one to a strong one and by mid December it should be pretty dang strong in terms of things which means where over the last couple months it's like it wanted to go down so anytime you
[03:25] gave it an excuse to go down it would go down okay and it was really hard pushed anytime you give it an excuse to go up it's going to go up that doesn't mean things can't crash it but it wants to go up as that liquidity increases and here
[03:37] are some of the reasons why I'm insanely bullish in terms of liquidity and the off, we had the Fed decision in December, although PAL came out and said it wasn't a sure thing. Uh poly market odds currently hold it around 70% odds
[03:50] that we get a cut in December. We have tariffs uh which are a catalyst both ways uh in terms of things. So, one way we have tariffs keep going into 2026. They're not uh knocked down by the courts in which case Trump has announced
[04:04] a $2,000 tariff dividend for Americans. I don't know how he's going to pull this off, but it's a genius move in terms of getting everyone to support tariffs, midterms, and kind of shows some of his internal uh thought process uh going
[04:19] into midterms, which is let's stimulate, let's give away as much as we can. Let's get this economy pumping so that we can absolutely dominate on these midterms. And so, um you know, on one case, you might see something like this happen.
[04:32] Again, I don't know how exactly it would translate. uh Besson has talked about maybe tax breaks or floating this a different way. I don't know if that would fly or what. Uh but this is maybe one possible scenario. The other
[04:44] possible scenario is that the courts actually strike down tariffs as illegal uh and say hey Trump you don't have the power to unilaterally um impose these according to poly market the odds are higher that that happens than it
[04:57] bullish for markets because uh the number one driver or the worry for in over and over is tariffs in terms of inflation. And so removing that just gives more room for the Fed to ease uh going into 2026. And so that's not
[05:12] kind of think either outcome when it comes to resolving tariffs is going to end up being bullish uh in terms of things. So that's another thing to keep an eye on going into 2026. We have the fact that overall institutions are
[05:25] ramping up their adoption and their product productization of crypto going into 2026. ETF flow should massively accelerate. They just continue to don't know how you could fade this. Like this metric alone uh you you really
[05:39] can't fade it. You you need a blowoff top to be able to fade this. You need parabolic and just saying, "Hey, it's gone too high. It's going to have to crash." That is your that is the only way that I could see you saying, "Hey,
[05:52] um I'm going to fade these flows because these flows are just absolutely crazy." Okay? Absolutely crazy. And I've point I point out all the time the crypto market is smaller than Nvidia, you know, as a stock. Okay? Nvidia as a single stock is
[06:06] bigger than the entire crypto market. It is just tiny today. You have the fact that all those people who sold in 2025 because they were freaked out because ultimately going to have to buy back in. Okay? They're going to get FOMO. they're
[06:19] things even higher. You have the fact that because of this like multi-month just draw down in crypto, the shorts have really piled up and those short positions as soon as that liquidity flips from the government shutdown uh
[06:32] Okay, it's just going to take one little cat callous for for price to jump up and pushing price higher and higher and higher. And actually that brings me to an interesting point that I almost forgot about and that is we do have the
[06:46] possibility for some turbulence around all the data releases coming out. So uh going to get a CPI data print on Thursday. And so that's going to tell us if inflation's accelerating or not. Every time these come out, it's always
[07:00] Either it comes in in line with expectations, then you could probably expect not really much. If it comes in hot, uh, you can expect definitely maybe a move down back, maybe even sub 100k Bitcoin. And if it comes in cool, you
[07:14] could probably expect almost nothing to happen. But more importantly, on top of we're going to get a lot of backdated data coming through the pipeline, which shotgun of information all at once. And although liquidity, you know, can start
[07:27] rebuilding again post the government shutdown, that doesn't mean it's rebuilt automatically. It takes some time for that reservoir to fill back up. And so you can definitely if that data is like super super negative in terms of like
[07:39] what the markets expect and want, you can expect some crazy market turbulence. And I made this post recently talking about uh this chart that everyone posts around where it's like global M2 in Bitcoin's price. For a while they were
[07:52] correlation broke. Everyone's freaking out and they're like why is it broke? highlighted the fact that if you actually notice uh correlation breaks around the time that the RRP is getting run down uh during the TJ rebuild and
[08:07] out of banking reserves. And the reason this is important is because there's multiple forms of liquidity. There's market tradable liquidity aka liquidity that makes its way into the market and then there's liquidity that's kind of
[08:19] stuck in the plumbing that never necessarily affects uh the market in the TJ rebuild once the RP was run down was a lot of liquidity getting sucked out of that market tradable liquidity at the same time that overall global M2 was
[08:33] different places that aren't necessarily impacting the market. And the way this chart works if if you actually like go back and test it like the the lead lag time breaks and changes. it syncs up and then it breaks and then it syncs up and
[08:47] the fact that when you have you know market tradable liquidity or M2 heading makes sense Bitcoin kind of follows that but when that breaks and it's not market it's like other liquidity in the financial plumbing system heading higher
[09:03] but the important fact to remember is that in terms of the TGA which is where a lot of the this banking reserves got pulled into uh in terms of that like eventually you do see the TGA draw down um not just like government shutdown
[09:16] ends yet some of that excess gets poured in the economy uh but in general it's like the the piggy bank of the United States and it eventually gets drawn down on like a rainy day like when you know they need the cash they need a lot of it
[09:29] and you'll see that TGA just absolutely plummet as a lot of that gets spent out the TGA rebuild is because we had a big draw down in the TGA a lot of that got spent and the government's like hey our piggy banks our saving account is low
[09:42] maybe we should save up a bit and make sure we have enough for a rainy day, the first place. And so there is a good amount of that liquidity that will get point. And that is a bullish future catalyst in terms of liquidity.
[09:57] time, we've been having this fragile liquidity environment for the past couple months. The liquidity is there. It's like somewhere out there in the market tradable liquidity. You can see it in this chart. We didn't have this
[10:10] huge dip off. you know, this is this is last year uh where we actually saw a huge decline in in year-over-year liquidity momentum. Like liquidity genuinely was leaving the system. That's not what just happened. Like liquidity
[10:22] the plumbing system. And you know, from time to time, it will work its way back into that market tradable liquidity. And so you're starting to save up a lot of that momentum uh that could get pushed into the market through various levers
[10:35] and means potentially in 2026 or potentially in the future. Basically, if they kink the hose and then like the hose starts growing and growing and big because all the water is getting held back or whatever and then finally
[10:48] hose. I'm not saying necessarily that exactly will happen, but I'm saying like exactly will happen, but I'm saying like that general kind of idea is akin to sort of what could happen. I don't know. It's kind of hard more complicated than
[11:01] won't ever go into market tradable liquidity. But as a general loose concept, not just with liquidity, but just heading into an easing cycle, etc. experiencing right now. We have that hose, it's being kinkedked. You know, we
[11:15] have this big old bubble that's forming on the back end. And you know, one day I do see that liquidity that, you know, that kink being let go and that And when when that happens, that's when you see these big year-over-year moves
[11:31] causes all season. That's what causes all these frothy bullish uh markets. And that is where I'm hoping we're heading going into 2026. And I think there's a lot of positive uh data and catalysts and reasons to believe that that's
[11:44] possible going into 2026. So to summarize, I believe the bottom is in. I we're going to go up only from here. It could still be turbulent between now and chop between, you know, over the next few weeks or even the next month. Uh,
[11:59] government shutdown ends, that's when we start seeing things improve going into 2026. And there are a lot of reasons to be extremely excited and bullish. And soon talking about what I'm buying on this dip and what I'm accumulating going
[12:13] into 2026. And really quick, I want to give a shout out because I haven't publish a weekly newsletter, the Never Die Newsletter. It's mostly just kind of like a recap of like everything I talked about during the week, but it does kind
[12:25] of the week, uh, some of the content that I put out during the week and some other really important, impactful information that's really critical. I don't personally put this newsletter together. I hired a guy that like
[12:37] commented on my YouTube videos for like 2 years straight. He's really cool and thing. He works really hard putting it together every single week and he's been begging me to do a shout out on it. So, if you want to support him and what he's
[12:50] and kind of just, you know, make sure you don't miss any of my content, make going to have a link in the description of this video. As always, none of this telling you to do anything with your money. I'm obviously not your financial
[13:03] own research. If this video is helpful, make sure to hit that like button. And button and the little bell next to it to be notified each time I release a new video. Thanks for watching and I'll see you next