---
title: 'The Bond Market Is Breaking'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=QQj06EwrgJY'
video_id: 'QQj06EwrgJY'
date: 2026-09-16
duration_sec: 2021
channel: 'Minority Mindset'
---

# The Bond Market Is Breaking

> Source: [The Bond Market Is Breaking](https://youtube.com/watch?v=QQj06EwrgJY)

## Summary

The video explains the bond market's critical role in the global economy, highlighting the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields to two-decade highs. It breaks down the mechanics of bonds versus stocks, the reasons behind the bond sell-off, and the potential consequences for everyday consumers and investors, including the risk of a 'doom loop'.

### Key Points

- **Bond Market Crack** [00:00] — The bond market, not the stock market, is the most important investment market and it's cracking. U.S. 30-year interest rates hit the highest levels in about two decades due to a global bond sell-off.
- **Emergency Government Intervention** [01:03] — The bond market cracks got so bad that the U.S. government announced an emergency program where it would act as its own lender to keep the bond market safe and solvent.
- **Stocks vs. Bonds** [02:23] — A stock is ownership, offering unlimited profit potential but last claim in bankruptcy. A bond is debt, providing fixed interest but first claim in bankruptcy.
- **Government Debt and Treasuries** [05:08] — The U.S. government spends more than it collects in taxes ($7T vs $5T in 2025), making up the difference through debt. These are Treasury bonds, historically considered risk-free.
- **Impact on Consumer Rates** [07:27] — The 10-year Treasury yield sets the baseline for mortgage rates, car loans, credit cards, and business loans. When Treasury rates rise, all other loan rates rise.
- **Rising Yields and Debasement Concerns** [09:01] — Treasury yields are rising because lenders are worried about debasement (money printing) and inflation, not default. To attract lenders, the government must offer higher interest rates.
- **Interest Payments Exceed Military Spending** [10:24] — For the first time in history, the U.S. is paying more in interest on its debt than on its military. This is due to $40 trillion in debt and refinancing at variable rates.
- **Debt-to-GDP Ratio at 125%** [12:29] — The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is about 125%, the worst since World War II (excluding pandemic). In 2000, it was 55%. This makes lenders cautious.
- **Who Are the Lenders?** [14:29] — The Federal Reserve, foreign governments (China now sells, Japan is selling), and banks/private entities are all reducing their lending. Crypto companies are now the fastest-growing lenders due to the Genius Act.
- **Silicon Valley Bank Collapse Explained** [16:32] — Banks like Silicon Valley Bank collapsed because they held Treasuries that lost value when interest rates rose. Bond prices fall when yields rise.
- **The Genius Act and Crypto Lending** [19:11] — The Genius Act requires crypto companies to back stablecoins with U.S. Treasuries, making them significant buyers, but mostly of short-term debt.
- **Government Buying Its Own Debt** [20:27] — The government is issuing short-term debt (bought by crypto firms) to pay off long-term debt, and may work with the Fed to print money, essentially using new money to pay old debt.
- **Impact on Economy and Jobs** [21:04] — Rising rates lead to higher business costs, causing layoffs and a weaker job market. It also creates stock market volatility as investors fear a recession.
- **Two Possible Scenarios** [25:00] — The White House hopes to outgrow the debt (economy grows faster than debt). The alternative is a 'doom loop' where economic struggles lead to more debt, higher rates, more inflation, and further economic pain.
- **Investment Implications** [27:15] — Investors should consider holding assets like gold if they expect a doom loop, or own the economy if they believe it will outpace debt.

### Conclusion

The bond market's instability is a critical signal for the broader economy, affecting everything from mortgage rates to job security. Understanding the dynamics of debt, debasement, and lender confidence is essential for making informed investment decisions in the current environment.

## Transcript

The most important investment market in the world has begun to crack. I'm not talking about the stock market, I'm talking about the bond market. And you want to pay attention because this has a direct implication on your money, your savings, and your paycheck.
Right now, the interest rate that the United States is paying to borrow money for 30 years has hit the highest levels that we have seen in about two decades. Right now, the interest rate that the United States government pays to borrow money for 30 years
has hit the highest levels we have seen in about two decades because we're seeing a global bond sell-off. And not too long ago, the CEO of the largest bank in the world, J.P. Morgan Chase Bank, said that this would happen
and he said that people would panic just like we're seeing right now. Take a listen. You are going to see a crack in the bond market. Okay? It is going to happen. And I tell this to my regulars, some of you in this room,
I'm telling you it's going to happen and you're going to panic. I'm not going to panic. we'll be fine. We'll probably make more money. And then some of my friends will tell me that we like crises
because it's good for JPMorgan Chase. Not really. These cracks in the bond market got so bad that the United States government had to announce an emergency program where the United States would be the lender to the United States.
Sounds a little weird, but it's happening to keep the bond market safe and solvent. So what I want to do in this video is number one, lay the foundation and explain what the bond market is because I feel like a lot of people have no idea of what a bond is.
And then number two, I'm going to break down what's going on and why this matters for you and why you want to pay attention because this is going to create investment opportunities. So make sure you stick with me until the end of this video. And because of all the concerns that people have been having about the United States dollar falling,
I am hosting a live, free, and virtual investor workshop on September 29th where I'm going to show you how you can profit when the dollar falls. I'm hosting the workshop twice on September 29th, once in the morning,
at 10 30 a.m eastern time and then again in the evening at 8 p.m eastern time and again the goal of this workshop is to understand how you can use your money to take advantage of the dollar losing value so if you want to see what we're doing i encourage you to register there are a limited
number of people that can actually join your lives if you'd like to join i have that link for you down in the description hello and when you register for the workshop we're also going to get market briefs which is my newsletter for investors completely for free if you're like most people you grew up hearing what the stock market is but have really no idea of what the
bond market is. So let me break that down. A stock is ownership. If I buy one share of the McDonald's company, I become one of the owners of McDonald's. A bond is debt. If I buy a McDonald's bond,
that means I'm lending money to McDonald's. Now, the way you get paid as a stock investor versus a bond investor is very different because as a stock investor, I get profit, which means the stock price could go up, the stock price could go down, but I'm hoping that the stock price goes up
and I will get a profit share, which is dividends. So there's no limit to how much money I can make as a stock investor because if McDonald's takes over the world, my share price is going to go up a lot. As a bond investor, I am loaning money to McDonald's.
So I am just getting interest. Whether McDonald's makes money or loses money, I'm just trying to get my contracted interest, which might be 4% a year or 8% a year, but that's all I'm going to get whether McDonald's loses money or takes over the world.
And the last difference, but arguably the most important difference between a stock investor and a bond investor is who gets paid first when something bad happens, when there's a default or a bankruptcy.
And when you are a stock owner, you are the last person to get paid. As a bondholder, as a lender, you are the first person to get paid. So when you go out and you buy a share of McDonald's, you become one of the owners of McDonald's trying to make profit when the company covers all their expenses.
This profit comes in the form of dividends, and it comes in the form of the stock price going up. There's no limit to how much you can get paid because the stock price go up to a million dollars a share, and they could pay out huge dividends if McDonald's takes over the world.
But if McDonald's were to go bankrupt, you're probably going to get none of your money back. So every dollar that you invest is probably gone. Now, if you were a bondholder, what that means now is you are lending money to McDonald's.
You are now essentially the bank, and the way that you're going to get paid is through interest. And this is now a contract. You might set an agreement that you're going to lend McDonald's money at 6% a year,
and that's the most amount of money that you're going to make. If McDonald's takes over the world and they double, triple, 10x the profits, you only make a 6%, and that's it. But if McDonald's loses money, they're still contracted to pay you.
And so if McDonald's were to go bankrupt, then what would happen is a bankruptcy judge would then sell off all of McDonald's assets, and the first person to pay are their bondholders, because you have a contract to get paid.
Now, the reason why the bond market is the most important market in the world, not the stock market, isn't because McDonald's is borrowing money and Apple is borrowing money on the bond market. It's because the biggest countries in the world are also working to borrow money from the bond market, including the United States government.
The way the United States government works is the government has one source of revenue. It's tax dollars from taxpayers. And in 2025, the United States government collected something like $5 trillion in taxes.
And then the United States government is going to go out and spend the money. They're going to spend money on our military. They're going to spend money on health care. They're going to spend money on social security. They're going to spend money paying back the debt, the interest payments. and in 2025, the government spent something like $7 trillion.
Now, you don't have to be a math genius to know that we're spending more money than we're bringing in in revenue. And so the way the government makes up that difference is through debt. And this debt is what these bonds are.
When it's our United States debt, it's called a treasury bond. These treasuries are loans that you're making to the United States government. Now, historically, these treasuries are known as risk-free investments.
And the reason why they're called risk-free investments is it's the only investment where you cannot default. Because everybody assumes that the government is not going to default. And I'll streamline just a second.
Because if you put your money in the stock market, you could lose your money. If you put your money in the bank, well, the bank could fail. Now, you might say, well, my bank is FDIC insured. But yes, only up to a quarter million dollars. After that, if the bank fails, you could lose the rest of the money.
So if you put in a million dollars and the bank collapses, you're only going to get back a quarter million out of the million dollars that you saved in the bank. Which is what the United States government, the only way that you don't get paid back is if the United States government defaults on the debt.
And every economist textbook will tell you that the United States government will not default. The reason why the United States government will not default This means that instead of defaulting, we will do something called debasement.
What is debasement? That is when we work with our central bank, the Federal Reserve Bank, to essentially print money. So if the government can't pay back its debt, what they do is they get this money printed.
That way they can pay this money back with new dollars. That is debasement. That's why the government will not default, although the debasement does have a cost, which is the dollar that you're getting, now have less buying power.
Now the reason why it's so important for you to understand how this system works is because this United States debt, particularly the 10-year treasury, meaning the 10-year loan to the United States government is so important,
is this is the rate that sets your mortgage rate, your car loan rate, and pretty much every other type of interest rate in the market right now. Why? Because remember what I said just a moment ago.
The United States government is a risk-free investment. So when you go to Chase Bank and you open up a credit card, or you go to get a mortgage, or you go to get a car loan, they're comparing the different investment options.
And they say, hmm, we can lend our money to you, you could lose your job, you could forget to pay us, or we can lend our money to the United States government. The government will always pay us. The government can't default. You can. And so the government is less risky as an investment than you are So who do you think is going to be a lower rate of interest Well you Because if you are more risky the bank needs a premium to justify lending the money to you instead
of the United States government. So when these interest rates go up, particularly the 10-year yield, your mortgage rate goes up, your call loan rate goes up, your credit card interest rate goes up, business loan rates go up. So that's why you want to pay attention to this
bond market because when the government interest rates go up, every other loan in the economy goes up as well. And what we've been seeing happen is that these treasury yields have been going up to
the highest levels we have seen in decades. And the reason why they've been going up so aggressively is because lenders are saying, we don't want to keep lending money to the United States government. We might not be worried about your default, but we're worried about your debasement.
and because of that concern about debasement, because of those concerns about inflation, because of those concerns about the dollar, because of the concerns about the United States economy, we don't want to keep lending money to you.
We don't think that's a safe investment for us. And so now the United States government has to say, what do we do to get more borrowers? Well, if we want to incentivize people to lend money to us, we need to make it a sweeter deal for you,
which means we're going to pay you a higher rate of interest. And so because the demand for United States debt has gone down, the interest rate has gone up to drive more potential lenders. And it got so bad that we could not find lenders for the United States government
that the government had to step up and say, we are going to now be our own lender. The United States government is now going to spend the money to lend the money to itself. Which might seem a little bit weird, considering we're already spending trillions of dollars that we don't have.
but this was one way that the government is going to try to stabilize the bond market and keep interest rates contained and stop them from going too high which would cause even more pain in the economy.
Now that you understand how the bond market works, let's go a little bit deeper into what's happening right now. The four largest expenses for the United States government are number one, Social Security, number two, Health Care, that's things like Medicare and Medicaid,
number three, interest payments, all of our debt, And then number four is our military, which means for the first time in history, we are paying more money in interest payments on all of our debt than we are on our military.
And the reason why that's happening is because, number one, we have accumulated so much debt. We have about $40 trillion worth of national debt. And then reason number two is this is not a fixed-rate debt.
The United States has about $40 trillion worth of national debt, which is more than we've ever had before. But the other problem is the interest rate that we're paying on this $40 trillion keeps going up. Because during 2020 and 2021, the United States did something that, well, a lot of people did.
They refinanced their debt because in 2020 and 2021, interest rates were the lowest that they had ever been in the history of time. So we refinanced. But instead of being, I guess, financially savvy and refinancing our debt at a 30-year fixed rate loan, we got a little bit greedy.
And we said, instead of refinancing the debt at 2.1 or 2.2% for 30 years, how about we do a five-year loan at 1.8%?
And so we were able to save a little bit of money and interest. But now here we are in 2026, and a huge chunk of our national debt is readjusting now. And it's readjusting because we did a five-year loan back in 2020 and 2021.
and in 2020-2021, interest rates were 1.8%, 2%. Today, they're significantly higher. So the debt that we have is becoming more expensive,
not just because we're accumulating more debt, because it's readjusting today at a higher rate of interest. And now that it's readjusting at a higher rate of interest, we have more money going in interest.
And this is where now new lenders are saying, hmm, do we want to keep lending our money to the United States? Because, well, as you assess the investment, you take a look at the health of the underlying asset.
And what we see today is that the United States is becoming underwater on its assets. Now, what does underwater mean? And the simplest way to understand this is to think about real estate. If you buy a $500,000 house and you have $400,000 of debt against it,
you're not underwater. is 80% loan-to-value because they have $100,000 worth of equity. But now take the same situation. They have a half a million dollar house with $600,000 worth of debt. Now you're underwater because you have 120% loan-to-value.
In the United States government, the way you calculate the loan-to-value is by comparing our national debt to our economy. Today at the time of the recording of this video, our national debt is about $40 trillion. In 2026, our economy is estimated to be around $32 trillion.
This is a number called GDP, which is a measure of our economy, which means our debt-to-GDP ratio is now about 125%. This is the worst debt-to-GDP ratio that we have seen in the United States
since living ever outside of the pandemic time. It's worse than what we saw during World War II, and we are in a healthy economy today. Now, to put this number in perspective, back in the year 2000, 26 years ago,
our debt-to-GDP ratio in the United States was about 55%, which means over the last 26 years, our economy grew. But you want to know what grew even faster than our economy? Our national debt.
Our national debt exploded now to where we are today, which is why we have a debt-to-GDP ratio of 125%. And this is why the top lenders to the United States are saying, you know what, I don't feel so comfortable lending money to the United States anymore
because the United States economy is not looking so strong right now. Now your question is, well, who are these lenders to the United States? Let me show you. Number one is the Federal Reserve Bank, which is a central bank here in the United States.
Now the interesting thing about the Federal Reserve Bank is they're not a bank, they're not a reserve, and they're not federal. But they have the ability to print money. So they've been able to print money and lend it to the United States government
every time we want to spend more money. The problem is when you print money out of thin air without having more wealth, you have a consequence, which is inflation. And we've been seeing a big inflation problem. You've been hearing about it since the pandemic.
And that's why, very recently, the Federal Reserve Bank started something called quantitative tightening. Quantitative tightening means we're going to stop lending so much money to the United States government.
However, the quantitative tightening stopped in 2026 and has now become quantitative easing again, which means, yes, the Federal Reserve Bank is still lending money to the United States government. Yes, the Federal Reserve Bank is still printing money to continue funding these loans.
However, the Federal Reserve Bank has to be cautious because we're already facing an inflation problem. So the Federal Reserve Bank cannot do unlimited money printing without making the inflation problem get out of control.
So the Federal Reserve Bank is lending money to the government, but it's going to be cautiously to not spiral inflation out of control. Number two are foreign governments like Japan and China.
Well, there's a couple problems here. China used to be the largest foreign lender to the United States. Today, they're not a lender to the United States. They are a seller of United States debt because they don't want to continue owning the United States treasuries.
The largest owner of United States debt is now Japan. But Japan is no longer buying more United States debt. Instead, what they're doing is selling United States debt. Why? Well, some of this has to do with concerns in their own economies, but it also has to do with concerns about the United States government and the United States economy.
So foreign lenders are also having to be cautious. Number three are banks and private entities. If you remember when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed back in 2022 the reason why Silicon Valley Bank collapsed was they were holding all of their savings in treasuries Now remember what I said a little while ago Treasuries are the safest investment in the world So why would that cause Silicon Valley Bank to collapse
And this has to go into the actual pricing of bonds. See, when interest rates on bonds go up, the price of bonds go down. That's just the way that they work. So what happened in 2022 was we were facing a huge inflation problem
because of the pandemic. The government printed all this money in 2020 and 2021. Inflation became a massive problem. So in 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank started raising interest rates to fight inflation.
Well, when the Federal Reserve Bank started raising interest rates, treasury rates went up as well. When treasury rates went up, well, banks were holding on to these treasuries because they were the safest investment. What happens when treasury rates go up?
The price of these treasuries goes down. So now all of a sudden banks, like Silicon Valley Bank, were holding on to these treasuries that were paying more interest, but they were dropping in value. And now that they're dropping in value,
Silicon Valley Bank is now underwater. Because they thought that they had the assets that were worth these billions of dollars, but they're only worth a fraction of that. Because these bonds kept dropping.
Again, why were the bonds dropping? Because as bond interest rates go up, the bond price goes down. That then created a collapse in Silicon Valley Bank, and that created a lot of concerns in the banking market. So yes, banks are concerned about treasuries
because they don't want to see a repeat of Silicon Valley Bank. And same thing with private people who are big lenders to the United States government as well. People are just being more cautious. They're saying, well, you know, I am concerned about the dollar.
I'm concerned about inflation. Maybe I should be a little more cautious when I save my money in treasuries. Maybe I should save my money in gold or something else. And so what we're seeing is just a more cautiousness are lending money to the United States government,
and because of that, that created more of this collapse in the bond market because the government is constantly spending more money. That hasn't slowed down. The government is, in fact, spending more money this year than they did last year.
So the United States government's need to borrow more money went up because we're continually spending more money that we don't have. Our deficit went up. So we need more debt, but we don't have as many lenders because of these problems.
This is a situation that has been creating a lot of chaos in the bond market and is now starting to trickle into the economy. Now, one thing that the United States government did back in 2025 to help protect against this problem was the United States government passed something called the June Effect.
And what it said was if you are a cryptocurrency company with stablecoins, you are required by law to back your stablecoins one-to-one with the United States Treasuries. Meaning, if you are a crypto company like Tether, you are issuing stable coins, you now have to buy an equal amount of United States treasuries, which is why the fastest growing lender to the United States is not any of these, it is now crypto companies because they have been working by law to now grow, but also then buy more United States debt.
but it hasn't been enough. And what I said in the beginning of this video is that the United States government is having difficulty finding lenders for their debt, more specifically, their long-term debt. These crypto companies are generally lending money
to the United States government on short-term debt. That's under 10 years, generally 5 years or less. And so what now the government is doing is they have started buying their own debt.
They have become their own lender. Now you're going to say, well, how are we funding that when we're spending trillions of dollars that we don't have? How do we just lend the money to ourselves? And what the government is doing is, number one, we're going to issue more short-term debt,
which is being bought up by these crypto companies, that is then going to pay off the long-term debt that nobody wants. The other part to that is, maybe we can work with the Federal Reserve Bank to print some money and then help pay off the debt as well.
Now you can start to see where that's the problem. We're printing money to pay off our debt, which means we're essentially getting new AMEX to pay off our visa, except that Amex is being fueled by the money pincher.
That's why we've been seeing so much confusion and chaos in the bond market. Now, a lot of people don't actually know what's happening in the bond market. What they're seeing is mortgage rates are up, car loan rates are up,
credit card rates are up. There's more pain in the job market and we're starting to see the stock market get hurt as well. How are all of these five things being impacted by this? Well, they're directly linked,
including the stock market, including the job market. And the reason why all has to start with here. As that 10-year rate goes up and as the treasury rates go up because there's not enough lenders
well that directly impacts your mortgage rate your car loan rate and your credit card rate. I'm not going to explain why again right now but when banks see that the government is paying higher rates of interest they're going to charge you higher rates of interest.
But then the next thing that happens is businesses start to get hurt and the reason why businesses start to get hurt is because do you want to know who also borrow a lot of money? Businesses. And these businesses also don't get 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
They get adjustable-rate mortgages because that's what's offered to them. And as interest rates go up now for those businesses, they now have to pay more money on their loans. Not just their new loans,
but also their old loans that are readjusting right now. And so we have businesses across the economy that are seeing their debts readjust because in 2021, the businesses that readjusted their loans
when they were the lowest rates ever for five years are now today seeing those loans readjust. And today, the interest rate on those loans are a lot higher than they were back in 2021. So now many businesses that have debt
are seeing their costs go up. Not just because salaries are higher or office rents are higher or software costs are higher, but because their debt servicing costs are higher. Why are the debt servicing costs higher?
it's not just because they have more debt. It's because their debt readjusted at a higher rate of interest. And so now as businesses are seeing their costs go up, they're now having to figure out how they can keep their margins. And that might mean hiring less people.
That might mean cutting some people. But that's why we're seeing that pain in the economy and the job market. A lot of it has to do with the inability to continue to grow because they're being constrained by how much debt that they have
and how much debt servicing costs that they have. We're also sometimes seeing the pain in the bond market trickle down into the stock market as well. Because the stock market, although it's not a direct one-to-one correlation of what's happening in the economy,
it's what people think is going to happen in the economy. When people buy stocks, they believe the economy is going to grow. If you didn't, you wouldn't buy stocks. Well, one of the biggest indications of a recession coming in the past has generally been a big rise of interest rates,
particularly these treasury rates because we've seen time and time again that as treasury rates go too high, too fast that generally indicates investors' concern about the economy and this can be a self-fulfilling prophecy
because as interest rates go up it just becomes harder to do business and it becomes harder for people to service their own debt that creates more defaults and that does create that recession. And in world we've been seeing interest rates stay higher for longer
and we've been seeing interest rates go up rather quickly and so we're starting to see more and more concerns in the stock market that people say, huh, I wonder if these higher bond rates are going to not trickle down into the economy and cause more defaults, cause more bankruptcies, and maybe push the economy
into a recession. If that doesn't happen, maybe I don't want to go out and dump more money into the stock market right now. That's why we've been seeing a lot of volatility in the stock market today outside of the war in the Middle East, outside of the inflation that's happening, outside of all the other
things that are happening in the world. these bond yields are also now creating concern for investors in the stock market. Again, this is why I'm hosting a workshop on September 29th because I'm going to show you what we're doing to be able to take advantage of the falling dollars.
If you haven't registered yet, I have that link for you down in the description. So the question now becomes, what's going to come next? And if you ask the White House, their goal is to outgrow the debt. They want to see the economy grow a lot faster than the national debt which will solve a lot of these problems because right now we are underwater We have 125 debt to GDP but according to the White House if we continue to focus in on the economy not the debt our
economy will be able to explode and then we'll be able to bring the debt to GDP ratio down, that way now our economy is healthy and stable without having to pay back the debt because we just grew the economy faster than the debt. On the
The other side, if we're not able to do that, that creates something called the doom loop. So the best case scenario is that our economy outgrows our national debt. On the other side, the worst case scenario is the doom loop, which is, number one, our economy struggles.
That means, number two, the government's going to spend more money to stimulate the economy, which means we're going to need more debt nationally to continue funding all of this spending. That would lead to, number three, treasury rates having to go up even more
because the government doesn't have enough lenders as it is. And so now if we start to spend even more money, well, now you bet that the government's going to struggle finding lenders, causing treasury rates to go up even more, causing mortgage rates, car loan rates, business loan rates, and everything else to go up along with it.
That then would mean that all of our national debt becomes more expensive because, remember, we don't have a 30-year fixed-rate national debt. It readjusts every single year. So not only are we seeing the amount of debt go up, but the interest rate on that debt goes up.
So now all of a sudden the interest payments on our debt go up even more. Not just because we got more money, but because the interest payments on those debts are more expensive, which means more tax dollars are going to be used to pay back the debt.
And we might have to print more money to pay back our debt. That then leads to number five, which would be more inflation, because all the money printing has a cost, which is inflation. And then it repeats the cycle, bringing us right back here to causing more pain in the economy.
This is the doom loop because it is a cycle that once you start to go down the system, more of this creates more of the cycle and it's a spiral. So what does this mean for you? Well, as an investor, you want to understand what is happening that way to better allocate your money
because if you believe that we're going to see something like this doom loop, well then you don't want to necessarily be holding on to dollars and cash and sell what you want or debase in assets which could include things like gold.
If you believe that the economy is going to outpace the national debt, well, then you want to own the economy. And this is where you as an investor want to be able to identify the best way for you to invest your money based off of what you're seeing happening in the economy,
because while history doesn't exactly repeat itself, it does rhyme. When I first started learning about money management, I avoided using a credit card because I thought that credit cards were bad and evil. And then when I realized that I knew how to spend my money
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over some of my favorite cash back credit cards that way you can earn more points and cash back while you spend on your normal transactions. I go over some of my favorite travel cards for those of you that are traveling more often and earning more income and then I go over some of my favorite business credit
cards as well. So if you know how to manage your money and you're comfortable using your credit card, you can see some of my top credit cards right now in the free article that I have for you down in the description. So what we talked about in this video is that the most important market
in the world is the bond market, and the bond market has been cracking. So what we first started talking about is what is the bond market versus the stock market? Because when you invest in a stock, you're getting ownership in something. You buy a stock of McDonald's, you become one of the
owners of McDonald's. You're working for the profit share. There's an unlimited amount of money that you can make, but you are the last person to get paid if McDonald's defaults. On the flip side, a bond is a loan. It's not ownership, it's a loan, which means you're not
working for profit, you're working to generate interest. There's a maximum amount of money that you can make because if a bond contract says that you're going to get 6% in interest, if McDonald's makes 10x more money, you only get your 6% in interest, but if McDonald's defaults, you're the
first person to get paid versus stock owners are the last people to get paid. Now, when we talk about the bond market, the reason why it's so special is you're not just lending money to private companies, but you can lend money to the United States government
and foreign countries around the world. And what we've seen happen is that over the last number of years, especially in 2026, the bond market has really begun to crack. And the reason why I say that is the United States government kept needing more and more
debt, but we couldn't find lenders for this debt, causing interest rate on our United States debt, our United States treasuries, to go up to some of the highest levels that we have seen in decades.
Now, why does that matter? Because now when you go to get a mortgage or car loan or credit card or business loan, all of those interest rates are dependent on treasury yields, specifically the 10-year treasury. So as treasury rates go up, all loan rates go up, making it more expensive to do business.
What we then looked at is, why are lenders not lending as much money to the United States? And we started by taking a look at the Federal Reserve Bank. The Federal Reserve Bank cannot just continue lending money to the government,
because that money has to be printed, and the concern is, if the Federal Reserve Bank keeps printing more money, we're going to have an inflation problem that's going to get way out of control, because we already have an inflation problem.
Number two are foreign countries. Previously, the largest lender to the United States was China. China is now a seller of United States debt. Today, the large sender to the United States, foreign, is Japan.
But Japan is also struggling. Now they're selling off United States debt as well. So we're not seeing that same demand for foreign countries. Then number three are banks and private individuals. But what we saw happen is that banks got burned holding treasuries back in 2022
because as interest rates on these United States treasuries went up, the prices and value of the bonds went down, causing banks like Silicon Valley Bank to be underwater on their assets,
which caused Silicon Valley Bank to collapse. So banks are being more cautious. And private individuals are saying, you know what, I don't know if I want to just keep all my money in treasuries because I'm concerned about inflation. And that's what we've seen happen is number four, because of the Genius Act,
where crypto companies are being required by law to hold on to United States treasuries, which is supporting that United States debt. But here's the problem. Right now, the United States is underwater because our debt-to-GDP ratio is about 125%
because we keep spending money that we don't have. Compare that to when we were back in the year 2000 when our debt-to-GDP ratio was only about 55%. So over the last 26 years, we have seen our debt explode relative to our economy.
And now the question is what is going to come next because there's two options. Option number one, which is what the White House is hoping for and promising, is that our economy is going to explode and our economy is going to outgrow our national debt.
Option number two is what we talked about, the doom loop. The doom loop is our national debt keeps going faster than our economy and this now puts us into a very difficult situation which is where the economy is struggling.
We then need more debt. We then have to raise interest rates causing a bigger deficit as more of our money has to go to pay back that debt causing more inflation and then more pain in the economy. And the reason why that matters is you as an investor
want to be able to understand what's happening now we can invest our money through all the changes. If you got value out of this video, the best thank you is a referral. So if you could share this video with a friend, family member, colleague, or fellow investor,
that way we can continue to spread this type of financial education. Thank you. For most of the last 15 years, it was cheaper for you to buy a house than it was to actually rent a house. But now that has flipped. It has become so expensive to buy a house
that we're now turning into a buyer's market because sellers can't sell their houses for the current prices and giving concessions because buyers are saying, it's cheaper for me to rent. This is where things get weird.