--- title: 'Last Bounce Before the Crash: Bitcoin Analysis' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=N3L0zHOkl14' video_id: 'N3L0zHOkl14' date: 2026-07-24 duration_sec: 469 channel: 'IKIGAI' --- # Last Bounce Before the Crash: Bitcoin Analysis > Source: [Last Bounce Before the Crash: Bitcoin Analysis](https://youtube.com/watch?v=N3L0zHOkl14) ## Summary This video provides a detailed technical analysis of Bitcoin's price action, suggesting that the current market is forming a bearish structure. The analyst revises a previous scenario, now expecting an upward correction (bull trap) before a significant decline. The analysis is supported by altcoin charts, particularly XRP, and emphasizes a long-term bearish outlook with a target near $30,000. ### Key Points - **Introduction and Scenario Revision** [00:01] — The analyst introduces the video as an important update on Bitcoin. Two months ago, a downward movement was predicted, which occurred. One month ago, a continuation was expected. Now, the vision has changed based on altcoin market conditions. - **Initial Bear Market Wave Structure** [00:57] — Initially, the analyst assumed the downward impulse was the first wave of a bear market (impulse wave), followed by an upward correction (bull trap), and then the third final wave (zigzag ABC). Now, wave B is not yet formed; wave A is still forming with an ending diagonal. - **XRP Altcoin Analysis** [01:38] — The analyst uses XRP as an example. A scenario published in mid-2024 is playing out accurately. Price hit first and second profit targets. The current downward movement target is at a scale where only halfway has been traveled. - **XRP Daily Chart Structure** [02:26] — On the daily timeframe, XRP shows a clearly defined initial diagonal consisting of zigzags, with a gradual narrowing range. This indicates only the first wave of the bear market. An upward correction is expected, then continuation to the final target of $0.4. - **Bitcoin Chart and Fibonacci Levels** [03:36] — Bitcoin shows a similar narrowing range and potential upward rebound. The 0.382 Fibonacci level from the previous bull market is a strong level. Previously thought to have reacted, now the upward move is part of an ending diagonal. An upward correction (bull trap) is expected. - **Bear Market Zigzag Structure** [04:44] — Every bear market starts with a zigzag structure. The analyst assumes only the first wave is completing. The second wave will be an upward correction, followed by the third wave causing disappointment. The global picture is accompanied by pessimistic psychology. - **Revised Scenario and Targets** [05:12] — The previous trend line is no longer relied upon. Even if broken, it's likely a bull trap. The analyst will set correction targets once the correction begins. The minimum target for the bear market is $30,000 (0.618 Fibonacci), but could go lower based on cyclical analysis. - **Investment Strategy Advice** [06:37] — Deep downward corrections should be celebrated, not feared. Lower prices allow buying more quality assets. The analyst recommends gradually buying Bitcoin at equal intervals (e.g., monthly) and setting aside an investment reserve for larger purchases at key levels. ### Conclusion The analyst expects an upward correction (bull trap) in Bitcoin before a continuation of the bear market to at least $30,000. Investors are advised to accumulate quality assets during the decline and plan actions based on forecasts. ## Transcript Sergey, this is the Kigai channel. And today we have a very important video about Bitcoin cryptocurrency. First, let's go through the chronology of our scenario. 2 months ago, when Bitcoin was going up, I published a video was a common trap. And downward movement and a renewal of the local minimum. We saw the expected downward movement, and the local minimum was updated. A month ago, I published a scenario in which I expected a continuation of the downward movement, with a higher probability, and a breakout of the 0382 Fibonacci level. We are currently moving within this scenario, but given the overall situation on the cryptocurrency market, as well as the picture emerging for altcoins, my vision has changed slightly. And in this video I will reveal to you exactly what changes have taken place. So, initially I assumed that this downward impulse was the first wave of a bear market, the first impulse wave. Then there was an upward correction, that is, a bull trap, and now the third and final wave of the bear market is emerging, that and final wave of the bear market is emerging, that is, a single zigzag ABC. Now my vision has shifted to the point that wave B has not yet formed, meaning we have not yet seen full-fledged bull traps. I assume that wave A is still forming now with an ending wave A is still forming now with an ending diagonal at the end. That is, we are still within the momentum. And now wave five of this impulse is being formed in the form of a final diagonal. As I said earlier, my vision is based on the general situation in the cryptocurrency market. As an example, let's open the XRP altcoin chart and see what's happening there. We have been managing this Altcoin for 2 years now. In mid-2024, I published the following scenario of movement. If we now open the XRP cryptocurrency chart, we will see that the price is moving exactly according to our scenario. The price very accurately achieved the first and second targets for profit taking. And the target for the current downward movement is at downward movement is at scale, we have only gone halfway. And now let's turn to the local picture and see what emerges there. I opened the daily time frame, and here we see a clearly defined structure of the initial diagonal, which consists of zigzags. We see a gradual narrowing of the range at the beginning of the trend. This situation means that this is only the first wave of the bear market. This is exactly what she looks like. For example, let's recall the cryptocurrency optimism, where we saw the same situation, expecting an upward correction and a continuation of the downward movement. If I open the logarithmic graph, we will see what happened after that. Accordingly, based on the structure, we can conclude that we can expect the formation of an upward correction and a continuation of the downward movement in the near future, with the realization of our final target of $0.4. I noted this scenario and recently published it on the Telegram channel. The screen. Regular market reviews are published there . So, this picture is emerging not only for the is emerging not only for the XRP cryptocurrency, but also for other significant altcoins. That's why I synchronized the altcoin scenarios with the Bitcoin scenario so that they would be identical in correlation. Accordingly, returning to the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, here we can see the formation of the same narrowing range and a subsequent upward rebound. If we recall the Fibonacci retracement levels that I noted during the previous bull market, we will see the 0382 Fibonacci level here. A strong level from which a reaction is quite likely to occur . Previously, I believed that the reaction had already occurred and that this reaction served as this upward movement. But now I suggest that this upward move was just a part of the current ending diagonal that is now forming. And now, based on the general situation on the cryptocurrency market, I assume that we are expecting an upward correction, which will most likely be a bull trap. Many will believe that with this upward movement, Bitcoin has reversed, ATC has reversed, a small frenzy will begin , people will believe in further growth and a renewal of the global maximum, and then total disappointment will come with wave C. Every bear market has the same zigzag structure at its beginning . This structure may become more complex later, but the minimum structure is a zigzag. And now I assume that we are only completing the first wave of the bear market. Next, within the framework of an upward correction, we will see a second wave and then total disappointment within the framework of the third wave. The occurs in a global picture, is always accompanied by a pessimistic psychological background. And now let me summarize briefly. So, we no longer rely on this trend line that I noted in the previous review. Even if it breaks, it is likely a bull trap. When this correction and if this correction begins to occur, then I will set correction. Now, to begin with, we need to observe the formation of a local minimum. And then it will be necessary to monitor the implementation of these goals and the response to key levels. Once again, I'll keep you informed about everything on Telegram. The QR code Also subscribe to the channel and click the bell. Regular market reviews and useful educational content are published here. And I also remind you that we recently launched full-fledged training from scratch. The first level of training costs only $100. It's like ordering groceries for the family once. It contains about 50 lessons from investing to understanding the market and trading system. The link is in the description. And so on. After this upward correction, after this bullish trap, I expect a continuation of the downward movement, an update of the local minimum, which we will set soon, and a movement to the Fibonacci level of 0618. This is and a movement to the Fibonacci level of 0618. This is our target in the region of $30,000. I guess the minimum target for the current bear market is $30,000. But, given the scale of the correction based on cyclical analysis, we may go even lower. When the time comes, we will look at the reaction from this level. Deep downward corrections should not be feared, but celebrated, as these corrections are a real treat for investors. The lower the price of an asset, the more of this asset we can buy for the same amount of money. If you have a regular savings rate, you are in a very good position during a bear market because you will be able to accumulate a large number of quality assets in your portfolio. I would like to emphasize the word “quality”. Therefore, as I previously recommended, I now recommend gradually buying back bitcoins at equal intervals, for example, every month for the same set aside a portion in an investment reserve in order to purchase larger volumes at key levels during the target decline. Forecasts are not needed to predict price movements, but to plan actions. And I make such forecasts so that you can plan your actions in the market, so that you act wisely. If this video was useful for you, I would be likes, comments, and subscription to the channel. I wish everyone all the best, profit, and victory. I love you all and bye to everyone.