---
title: 'How to Win at Roulette: Avoid These Mistakes - Part 3'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=kcukwsD3iWs'
video_id: 'kcukwsD3iWs'
date: 2026-07-24
duration_sec: 1121
channel: 'Roulette Physics'
---

# How to Win at Roulette: Avoid These Mistakes - Part 3

> Source: [How to Win at Roulette: Avoid These Mistakes - Part 3](https://youtube.com/watch?v=kcukwsD3iWs)

## Summary

This video explains common mistakes roulette players make, emphasizing that most systems fail because they rely on patterns and progressions that don't improve odds. The speaker, a 20-year veteran, urges viewers to test strategies with simulation software and focus on advantage play instead.

### Key Points

- **Common Mistakes Overview** [00:06] — The video aims to explain mistakes almost every player makes, including how to test systems yourself.
- **Truth vs. Beliefs** [01:04] — If you find the truth offensive or believe in unicorns, this video is for you. It's about saving time and avoiding reinventing the wheel.
- **Speaker's Background** [01:32] — The speaker has been a roulette player for over 20 years and manages the largest roulette teams.
- **Most Players Are Clueless** [02:02] — Most roulette players don't think they're clueless, but unless you're winning hundreds of thousands yearly, you might be.
- **Roulette History** [02:45] — Roulette has been around for hundreds of years; anything you've thought of has likely been tried before.
- **Random Bets Can Be Profitable Temporarily** [03:37] — Even random bets can profit over 10,000 spins, which is more than most people play in a lifetime.
- **Advantage Play Introduction** [04:21] — Advantage play is the only way to consistently win. Testing systems with software saves time and money.
- **Win Rate Is Irrelevant** [05:47] — Win rate doesn't matter; the combined result does. Example: winning 90% of days but losing big on 10%.
- **Perception vs. Reality** [06:52] — Many players, even veterans, don't understand basics and have overall lost money.
- **Casino Odds and Payouts** [08:24] — All gambling games have odds vs. payouts. Casinos profit because payouts are unfair. To win consistently, you must increase win frequency above random.
- **The Cycle of System Creation** [09:14] — Players start with an idea, test it, and if it wins initially, they think it works. But over time, most lose.
- **Survivorship Bias** [10:30] — After a year, maybe one player is still winning with the same system, but that's due to luck, not system effectiveness.
- **Few Wins Are Meaningless** [12:30] — Even random bets often win, especially with progression. Progression is like a loan you must eventually pay back.
- **Betting Progression Explained** [13:04] — Progression changes bet size after wins/losses. If bet selection isn't better than random, progression is useless.
- **Independence of Spins** [13:30] — Each spin is independent; past spins don't affect future ones. Progression doesn't change odds.
- **Progression Changes Nothing** [15:41] — No combination of bets changes the odds. Progression is just different size bets on independent spins.
- **Money Management Doesn't Help** [16:42] — Money management doesn't contribute to a winning system; it only affects when you stop playing.
- **Focus on Advantage Play** [17:28] — Players should focus on advantage play methods, which have proven effective, instead of repeating common mistakes.

### Conclusion

The video concludes that most roulette systems fail due to fundamental misunderstandings of probability and independence of spins. The speaker encourages viewers to focus on advantage play and to test systems with simulation software to avoid wasting time and money.

## Transcript

I'll explain the mistakes almost every player makes. Firstly, according to Youtube, 99.5% of my viewers are male.
So I'll add the occasional video, to help hold your attention. And please don't use this video for anything other than learning about roulette. It would I also apologize to female viewers.
Unless you like this kind of thing, in which case you can reach me through my website. Besides, I promise to add something that's more your taste - in the correct proportion to viewers.
Again I'll explain the mistakes almost every player makes. This includes how you can do the testing yourself.
If you find the truth offensive, or if you believe in unicorns and faries, this video It's so you stop wasting time reinventing the wheel. Because life is short. And you don't want to waste time beating off a dead horse.
If you have the time to waste repeating the same mistakes, I'm happy for you. roulette strategies. If that's you, subscribe to the channel and watch the whole series. Click the bell icon
I know I might sound like I'm waffling on. But it's actually very important for you to If you're new to my series, here's some background about me: I've been a roulette player for over 20 years. And I manage the largest roulette teams anywhere.
But what's important is the message I'm trying to convey. I explain the real truth about roulette strategies. Most roulette players don't think they're clueless. They think they're different. They
But unless you're already winning hundreds of thousands of dollars each year, you might I dont want to come accross as arrogant, or like I think I know it all. I know I will never know everything. On some level, we are all clueless.
my mistakes. So I was on the other side for a long time. Looking back now, I wish someone would have slapped me around a bit. I should probably elaborate on that. I mean to say see reality - to save years of messing
You have the chance to do this now, and avoid wasting time like I did. But I know even if I watched this video 20 years ago, I probably wouldn't have listened. You don't need to use the systems I personally prefer. Most people don't have the right mindset
But whatever system you do use, it can't make the mistakes I'll explain here. Roulette has been around for hundreds of years. Gambling has been around for thousands of The chances are that anything you've thought of, has been tried before.
Something might be new and shiny to you. But in reality, it's probably old and useless. Still, there are always new discoveries to make. We should never stop looking. On this note - especially in future videos - I'll explain what I think are the most promising
Anyway, I'm just saying don't repeat the same mistakes. Even if you've been playing for years - you're probably making the same mistakes. But the reality might be you're just someone who has been gambling a long time.
Well, if you've been making hundreds of thousands of dollars per year, for years, you could That is unless you play high stakes, and only play maybe a few times per month. In this
Remember that even random bets are sometimes profitable. Even random bets can profit over 10,000 spins. That's more spins than most people play in Here's a video of 100,000 spins being played with a losing system.
The system is essentially random bets, and increasing bet size after losses. Most of the time, it loses. But sometimes, it profits. It just means the winning number happened to include numbers you bet, on the spins you
But I'll explain more about that later. It's a great program every roulette player should have. You can very easily test your systems and theories, before risking real money.
called advantage play. Most importantly, you can learn a lot about what doesn't work. Again it saves you a lot The video is long, so i'll speed it up to the end.
100,000 spins were tested.
part of the test, like this. It looks like the system worked. Like almost every system, this one uses elaborate logic to determine where to bet next.
In this chart showing 100,000 spins, you can see the vertical lines that separate each There are 10 groups of 10,000 spins, because we have 100,000 spins in total.
Now carefully check the bankroll at the beginning of each 10,000 spins. You'll notice in some groups of 10,000 spins, we profit. It isn't important how many times we won or lost. You might call this the "win rate".
But how often you win is irrelevant. You could win even 90% of the time. But what really For example, imagine playing 10 different days. On 90% of the days, you might win $1000. That's a profit of $9000.
But on 10% of days, you lose $10,000. The win rate of 90% sounds great. But again the combined result is what matters. So forget about win rates. They are meaningless.
So if you haven't already made hundreds of thousands of dollars with your system, why Again if you really want to profit from roulette, it makes sense to learn what others have tried. Then you'd save a lot of time.
And that's what this video is about - saving you time. And probably a lot of money. Then you can focus on roulette strategies that work - before casinos change, and roulette If that happens, you will have missed your window. Because for now, roulette is actually
But only with the right approaches. your success. You need to understand your perceptions of reality are very often wrong.
good handle on reality. even call themselves veterans. But usually they still don't even understand the basics, and have overall lost money.
At best, maybe they've overall won money - but still played less than 10,000 spins in their I see hundreds of people every day on forums and in emails - who all think they're onto This video is partly for them.
But people usually see only what they want. They prefer fairytales. I've been trying to wake some people up on my forum for years. With crystal clear proof. I mean the truth and verifiable fact is slapping them in the face. It's teabagging them. And
Some of them even think the actual truth is part of a conspiracy to hide winning roulette I don't expect this video will change them. These kind of players probably already stopped So this video is mostly for rational people who want to learn.
Always verify facts, for yourself. When I say facts, I mean things like test of billions of spins - from statisticians, mathematicians, and other professionals in the gaming industry.
But more importantly, I'll explain how you can verify these facts, for yourself. There's a lot more to explain. And again it needs to be in several different videos. To summarize previous videos, all gambling games are odds versus payouts.
And the payout is what you're paid when you win. The casino profits because they pay unfair amounts, even when you win. So the only way to consistently win at roulette, and any casino game, is by increasing the
This means your system must win more frequently than random bets. Because if your bets have the same win rate as random, you've changed nothing.
But players get stuck on the delusions like patterns they think they see, but don't really There are too many mistakes for me to explain in one video. So I'll explain more of the But first, we'll start with the most common mistakes.
When creating roulette systems, most players repeat a particular cycle. First, they start with an idea. It seems unique - like nobody probably thought of it before. It's probably the same rubbish, just repackaged - but they probably don't understand why.
If tests and go bad and you lose, you probably just scrap the idea, and think of something But if tests are good and you profit, you might think your system "works". You might Let's say 1,000 players throughout the world used your awesome new system.
There will be both winners, and losers. But if your system was completely ineffective, Let's say 400 players win, and 600 players lose. But the 400 winners think they've finally got a system that "works". They think they've
The reality is the system probably never "worked". So now, forget about the 600 players who lost. They've moved on. The remaining 400 players then continue to play, for about a week.
At the end of a week, half of the 400 players have lost, and the other half continue to Over time, fewer and fewer players are winning. Even with the same system.
After a whole year, there's maybe 1 player who's still winning with the same system. They wont let anyone tell them otherwise. After all, they've got the money to prove That's exactly the situation I was in. I won for about a year straight, and thought my
My first thought was the casino must have changed something to make me lose. The reality is my system was just the same as random bets. But I only saw that after It's the same cycle for every inexperienced player.
You quickly forget about systems when you lose with them. But if you win at the start, It's a very persistent illusion. It makes you think your system works. Now let's say your system initially worked, but then started to lose. We've all been in
You might then think the system just need refining. But it goes nowhere. The modified system might win for a bit, then lose. Or it might lose from the start.
In this case, you're just repeating the same cycle - thinking the system is new and better. It still has a win rate, or bet accuracy, no better than random bets. I know what some of you might be thinking - that some new system you have seems to win
After all, the system follows patterns you think you see. But even a streak of reds or blacks looks like a pattern. It's just normal random behavior. But when more complicated patterns are involved, the same logic goes out the window.
Like for example, the law of a third - which is misunderstood normal behavior of random It's as usless as knowing betting one number averages 1 win per 37 spins. In reality, almost every pattern you think you see, only exists in your head.
So if you think your system uses some awesome new pattern you discovered, and testing so And if you repeat the cycle, eventually you'll lose, and go back to the start.
So the key point here is a few wins are meaningless. Even random bets often win. Especially if you use progression, where you increase bets after losses. With progression, you'll win most of the time. So you'll think your system works.
Look at it this way: betting progression is like a loan. You can't possibly know when you'll need to pay it all back. I'll explain more about betting progressions in the next point.
Betting progression is where you change the size of bets, after wins or losses. This is where you increase the size of the bets after losses. You might think progression helps you win.
If your system's bet selection isn't better than random bets, betting progression is useless. And I'm sounding like a stuck record, because still people don't understand it.
risk, on the next spin. Every spin is independent. The past spins are in the past. In the way that most systems assume, the past spins have no affect on future spins.
You probably heard people say this before. But maybe you don't properly understand it. Let's say there were 3 players at the table. On the first spin, the first player bets $10 on green 0. He has a 1 in 37 chance of winning.
Then the second player, on the second spin, bets $20 on green zero. He also has 1 in 37 Now on the third spin, the third player bets $40 on green zero. Like the other players,
But let's say he won. On each of the 3 spins, there was a 1 in 37 chance of winning - for the European wheel. And the amount bet does not, and cannot change the odds of winning. It will always be 1 in
Also, that payout for wins never changed. It was always 35-1, on a win. Now let's say the same three bets were made by a single player - on the 3 different spins. My point is progression bets change nothing, except the amount you risk on the next spin.
Each spin is independent. And has the same risks vs reward. The same odds versus payout. It's not hard to understand the basics of this principle. Most players understand it But they don't apply the same principle with thier own systems.
Especially when their system uses more elaborate methods, that determine where to bet next. It's initially hard to get your head around it. I mean to properly understand it. Well if I keep increasing my bets, eventually I'm going to win.
But you're forgetting your bankroll is limited. And you can't keep increasing bets forever. Also the table has a maximum bet limit. So even if you had an unlimited bankroll, your The key point here is no matter how elaborate your system might be, it is probably still
If your system bets just one number, then you'd be stuck averaging a 1 in 37 win rate. It would just be different size bets, on a different spin - with each spin offering unfair
So betting progressions change nothing. It drives me nuts when some posts an image like this on my forum. But all that happened is they kept increasing their bets after losses - and got lucky - that
In this case, they'd have a 1 in 37 chance of winning back losses. And a 36 in 37 chance You'll only save your bankroll 1 in 37 times this happens.
And there's no combination of bets that will change this - because each bet is a bet on So with betting progression, you can either get lucky and win big. Or, you can lose even
Underneath it all, it's nothing more than different size bets on different spins. No It's the much the same with money management strategies. Like where you quit for the day, after reaching your target profit.
But it does not in any way contribute to a "winning roulette system" - I mean a system Remember, if your system hasn't increased the accuracy of predictions - it's the same
And if you leave for the day, after your bankroll is up - you might be missing out on some huge Or you might be avoiding a losing streak. So progression bets change nothing, except the amount you risk on independent spins.
And money management doesn't change the effectiveness of a system. At best, leaving while your chips But if your system really worked, then you'd generally only stop playing if your wins became So far I've explained some very basic principles.
But they'll probably close the video, and continue working on a system that makes the But I hope at least some people learned something new. There are some very promising approaches that have barely been tested.
These are the methods players should focus on developing - instead of repeating the same I'll explain more about them later. The videos in this series will gradually cover more advanced But if you just want to get started on roulette systems that have already proven effective,
These systems are called advantage play. There's several of them. And all except one are completely legal everywhere, because they Anyway this video is already too long, so I'll wind it up for now.
I'll publish the next video soon. If you'd like to be notified, subscribe to this channel and click the bell icon.