--- title: 'How to Find 100% Safe Bets: Sports Arbitrage Explained' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=TfuT40YFIAM' video_id: 'TfuT40YFIAM' date: 2026-07-11 duration_sec: 921 --- # How to Find 100% Safe Bets: Sports Arbitrage Explained > Source: [How to Find 100% Safe Bets: Sports Arbitrage Explained](https://youtube.com/watch?v=TfuT40YFIAM) ## Summary This video explains how to find 100% safe bets through sports arbitrage (sure betting). The presenter demonstrates a method using odds from multiple bookmakers to guarantee profit regardless of match outcome, though profits are typically small. ### Key Points - **Definition of Sports Arbitrage** [00:49] — Sports arbitrage (sure betting) involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers to guarantee a profit, regardless of the result. - **Profit Potential** [02:32] — While sure bets guarantee profit, the winnings are usually small. However, large sums can be bet safely to increase absolute returns. - **Excel Spreadsheet Method** [03:09] — The presenter uses an Excel spreadsheet to collect odds from various bookmakers (e.g., W Play, Pinnacle, Marathon) for a Russian league match (Sochi vs. Rural) and calculates probabilities. - **Probability Calculation** [05:31] — Probability is calculated as 1 divided by the odds. The sum of probabilities for all outcomes must be less than 1 for an arbitrage opportunity to exist. - **Arbitrage Condition** [06:15] — If the sum of probabilities is greater than 1, no arbitrage exists. A sum less than 1 indicates a guaranteed profit. - **Example Found** [07:05] — Using three foreign bookmakers (Marathon, Pinnacle, and another), the sum of probabilities was 0.99, confirming an arbitrage opportunity. - **Bet Amount Calculation** [08:25] — To win a desired amount (e.g., 500,000 pesos), the bet amounts are calculated proportionally based on the odds. The example shows betting 499,352 pesos to win 500,000. - **Best Markets for Arbitrage** [12:49] — Obscure sports and unknown leagues (e.g., African or Asian leagues) offer better arbitrage opportunities because odds are less tightly set compared to major leagues. ### Conclusion Sports arbitrage is a mathematically guaranteed way to profit from betting, but it requires accounts with multiple bookmakers and yields small margins. The best opportunities are found in less popular sports and leagues. ## Transcript with videos, so let's get back to it. Thank you so much videos, so let's get back to it. Thank you so much to the channel, for continuing to watch my videos, for continuing to comment. It's for continuing to comment. It's very, very busy, and we've had a lot to do, so we've lot to do, so we've We'll keep going. I'm calling on Ale to be even harder. Today I'm going to show you something that people are waiting to see, and that's how to find 100% safe bets, that is, how to find or how to do sports arbitrage or surf betting. It's an exercise I just did. Maybe it 's not very applicable because we haven't managed to get it 100% for Colombia, 100% for just one country, but I'm going to show you how it works and that it is possible to find 100% safe bets. So, we've talked about how txuribeltz are bets where you bet differently at a bookmaker and bet against the bottom-ranked team, if you understand what I mean. It's about how to cover... All the possibilities, but this bet is... it does n't matter if he wins, loses, or draws, we're going to win. That's the idea. That's why they're the best, sure bets. They best, sure bets. They are very difficult to find, especially in a country, and you probably have to register with bookmakers from different countries, like the global ones described here in Spain, here in England, here in Chile, here in Colombia, and somehow you can withdraw the money. You have to figure out how to money. You have to figure out how to do it. In another video, I'll show you how I do it because that's how I've done it in this video, and we'll sometimes show you how I do it. So, found, and you can win money with them. Although when you find them, the winnings are small, but if they are sure bets, you are guaranteed a profit, and you could bet large sums of money knowing that you were definitely going to win. in mind, so I'm going to show you that they are found, and we're going to see them. So, let's go to this Excel spreadsheet. Today I reviewed all these pages; the ones in green are pages... All the betting odds in in green are pages... All the betting odds in Colombia green are, I think, from a Spanish bookmaker, another from Chile, and I don't remember. Here I have odds for a match, a Here I have odds for a match, a Russian league match, Sochi versus Rural. This match will be played on for Sochi to win, the odds for a draw, the odds for Rural to win. the odds for Rural to win. From all the bookmakers, the result is... well, the goal is to find the perfect combination that always makes perfect combination that always makes one team win. Here I put the odds and then translated them into probability. Right, one divided by the odds gives me the probability. It's the probability that they win at W Play. There's the so on. These are the odds that Pinnacle wins. This is the probability that they win at Marathons. The probability that Gol wins. Look, here are the pages where I show the odds. Here's Doubleplay, here's Roosevelt, here's Look Ya, here's Ice Samba, here's here's Ice Samba, here's Codere, here are Codere's. William Hill, from Achilles to William Hill's power, and so on. For example, that's the one for Marathon 1000, that's the one for Marathon here, Milan Moraton here, this is the one for Pinnacle 1000, here's the one for this is the one for Pinnacle 1000, here's the one for Pinnacle, and so on. It helps us successively. Likewise, we might have another one, right, from another one, right, from Colombia, friend. Well, there was the jackpot, the Colombia, friend. Well, there was the jackpot, the game of the goose, ready. So these are the bets for him to win, right? What do I do? I calculate the probability of the probability. Remember that to capture the probability, it probability, it 's equal to 1 over Laporta. Here are all the probabilities calculated. After that, what do I do? What adjustments? After that, I look for the minimum probability After that, I look for the minimum probability of winning, the minimum probability of tying, the minimum of winning, the minimum probability of tying, the minimum Durango I make is that he wins in a long run, that the partner loses. I look for that the partner loses. I look for those probabilities here, those probabilities here, and it must give me less than one. and it must give me less than one. When the sum of the probabilities is greater than 1, it means there is no greater than 1, it means there is no arbitrage. That is, if you bet on all arbitrage. That is, if you bet on all three options, you won't there is one, it's less than one. Crisis, if there's a way to win, I 'll show you. I found that Colbert's bet, look where that Colbert's bet, look where Kolbe is here. It's a Chilean company, right? Marathon, let's see where it is. Marathon is over here. Marathon is over here. Marathon is Spanish, and Pinnacle Marathon is Spanish, and Pinnacle is also Spanish. I found that the three foreign bets—not the Colombian ones, but the foreign ones— the sum of the odds if I beat Camps, or if it's a draw, or if I win, gives me a probability of 0.99. That's a probability of 0.99. That's half below one, which means I'm going to make a profit no matter what. are free to suspend the match, since bookmakers are always at a since bookmakers are always at a disadvantage. But in this case, disadvantage. But in this case, mathematically, Once we have those probabilities and know which of our three options we should choose to win, we'll... To calculate the amounts we're going to bet, bet, we have that for Sochi these are the probabilities of a tie in the strokes, the probability of a tie in the marathon, the probability of a win in the rural, and so on. of a win in the rural, and so on. Now, how much do I want to win? Let's say, one does the calculation: I want to win, I don't know, I want to win, I don't know, 500,000 pesos. So I should bet 500,000 pesos. So I should bet 499,352 pesos. Obviously, the more you bet, the more you'll bet. If they win, you can win 5 million euros. I'm going to bet an amount that gives me a win, and that's the total of 5 million. So, I'm going to bet 499,352 pesos. This is a difference of percentage here, if these three things are lower, for example, things are lower, for example, if it's 0.97, you'll win more. The lower this sum of the odds is, the more you'll win. So it all depends on win. So it all depends on how you find how You find that, that's how you find how You find that, that's my sports suit, and here I found it very low, I found a low one, but if I find the arbitrage with the sum of the probability is much lower than this, I'm going to win more money. Okay, so I'm this, I'm going to win more money. Okay, so I'm going to bet 444,993,500 pesos. So, it's that amount, I multiply the probability by that amount, and it tells me the probability of Marathon by the probability of Pinnacle by the amount you're going to bet, and it tells me, look, if you going to bet, and it tells me, look, if you probability, you're going to get 500,000 pesos. If we're going to bet this amount of money on Marathon at this probability, you're going to win 5 million pesos. If you bet that amount on Pinnacle at this probability, you're going to get 520 pesos. But in reality, whatever happens, you're going to win. Simply opening your paper, you're going to bet 4,993,000 pesos. If you always do this, whatever 4,993,000 pesos. If you always do this, whatever happens, you're going to have a positive balance, which is what I wanted to show you. One can find Courbet bets or arbitrage bets. The thing about sports betting is that you arbitrage bets. The thing about sports betting is that you win very little, very little indeed, and it's very difficult to find. You wouldn't need accounts at several bookmakers accounts at several bookmakers accurate bets and make a profit, but the profit is obviously very small. It's a 100% sure bet, and you don't feel like the bookmaker is betting at the last minute, saying things like, "I'm betting today," or "I'm betting saying things like, "I'm betting today," or "I'm betting wherever you've heard." Mathematically or probabilistically, these are 100% sure bets. If we're always going to bet a certain amount and win a larger amount no matter what happens, 100% sure bets. You win very little, but the important thing is to choose something with lower odds, to find probabilities, the highest possible probability, and much lower to win more money. And what's money. And what's one of the two ways to find these sports betting markets or sponsors? It's to look for sports betting markets or sponsors? It's to look for obscure sports, rare sports, obscure sports, rare sports, unknown leagues, because the most the Spanish League, the French League, the German League, are leagues that are very well-studied. Probabilistically, the stability and the odds placed are very tight in those matches because they know that people bet too much on those encounters. But in a league of those encounters. But in a league of countries like African countries, Asian countries, or in unusual sports, or sports that we're not familiar with, things like that can happen things like that can happen sports arbitrage. So that's something I wanted to show you guys. Thank you very much for watching the video. At any time in Guadalest, I'm going to continue showing more things and how these are calculated. I'm going to continue showing you some strategies and showing how you can strategies and showing how you can win many times over. Do win many times over. Do n't forget to subscribe to the channel, hit the bell so you know when I upload a video, or subscribe to my Tele Grant Hill School channel where I'll be showing you, in addition to these videos, some free betting clips. Thank you free betting clips. Thank you all very much. Enjoy!