[00:00] Donald Trump has just set a date for taco. Now, hopefully we actually get a full-on taco and we come to some form of a revolution with Iran. Maybe it's Charles Pope.
[00:12] But remember that this Monday there was supposed to be a meeting between Gulf leaders, so countries like Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and otherwise, as well as Oman,
[00:25] to meet with Iran to negotiate a deal. Well, after the Houthis ended up striking the fuel facilities for Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia requested a delay in that Monday meeting.
[00:41] And instead, now, Donald Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders on Tuesday. It's this Tuesday coming up, which, if you've been following along with the memes,
[00:54] September the 22nd, a Tuesday, happens to be in alignment with Taco Tuesday. We like Taco Tuesday because it's a reference to Trump always chickens out and we end up having some form of good news.
[01:06] Maybe that's false hopium, but it's a good sign that we are now transitioning from a place of This war might go on for the rest of Donald Trump's term, which was leaked by the White House.
[01:18] Leaked by the White House. Donald Trump literally saying we are slow-walking negotiations with Iran. Donald Trump saying the war will not end by midterms, and Americans will be okay with higher gas prices because we can't afford to have Iran have a nuclear weapon.
[01:34] Now, that commentary is turning into, we're going to meet Gulf leaders on Tuesday outside the UN meeting, which happens to mean that meeting is coming right before Gulf leaders potentially reconvene
[01:48] that meeting that was delayed for Monday with Iran. This is interesting. So, let's see what's going on and what contributes to this. First, we know there's a lot of drama going on between the Saudis and the Houthis right now
[02:03] because Yemen can't keep a lid on the Houthis who are an Iranian-backed, essentially terrorist group. they are striking Saudi infrastructure and shipping
[02:15] making it hard for the Saudis to get oil out of the region China, as reportedly per Al Jazeera privately asked Iranian officials to help rein in Yemeni Houthis after Saudi Arabia appealed to Beijing following the recent attacks
[02:31] this is also convenient for China because China depends on these energy routes and lower oil prices that they can get through the Red Sea so they can get that shipment going through the southern Babamanda Strait.
[02:44] Coming out of there, that's where the Houthis are kind of choke-pointing the Saudi oil shipments right now, affecting oil prices in China. Of course, oil prices have globally risen. We're sitting at about 103 right now on Brent,
[02:57] which is lower than the peak of 108 we hit when that Saudi pipeline was first struck. So we're seeing some relaxation right now. Could be because we expect some of these Houthi attacks to hopefully slow,
[03:11] as China is not only trying to get the Houthis to relax, but China's Xi Jinping is also coming to meet Donald Trump, allegedly, next Thursday. So next Thursday is a quite interesting week for geopolitics.
[03:26] I mean, the Warsh's Balls coupon code at Meet, Reinvest will be expired, but you can still get that now over at meetreinvest.com. But what it means is on Tuesday we got a meeting with Gulf states between Donald Trump and Gulf states Then on Thursday we have the Xi Jinping tentative meeting The dates for that obviously could change but that expected Iran this is expected to be a big topic here Now there
[03:49] been a lot of talk that Iran is going to keep this war going. And this could be U.S. propaganda, but I think it's interesting that the Wall Street Journal is now reporting about severe
[04:02] blockade issues that Iran is facing. And I deem this to be believable. Of course, I'm also aware that U.S. propaganda is also real. But I've seen the Wall Street Journal criticize
[04:14] issues with the Trump administration a lot where I don't really think they're just purely bending the knee here to the Trump administration. But I think this is very interesting. Iran vowed to respond to the U.S. blockades by pushing more trade over land.
[04:26] However, on the ground, this is not going according to plan. Iranian truck drivers are currently stuck at the Iranian border with Pakistan, unable to get their goods across the border
[04:38] because of bureaucratic hurdles and costs. Tons of stranded fruits like apricots have spoiled because of the delays. Cement and bottled gas is stuck at entry points going into Pakistan or out of Pakistan and Afghanistan borders.
[04:55] You've got the Navy helping get oil through the Strait of Hormuz. These are the night operations we're well aware of. We have not, in the last about week now, heard about newer attacks on tankers from either side, right?
[05:09] We haven't heard Iran trying to lay new mines. We haven't heard Iran strike tankers. And we haven't heard of the U.S. in their tanker-for-tanker strategy counterattacking Iran, suggesting some of this peak ping could be behind us,
[05:23] partly because the blockade is probably exerting its toll on Iran. Take a look at this. Because of the blockade, you have collapsing seaborne exports, we know that. They've been relying on trucking and training, literally trains between Iran and China,
[05:40] which we've seen a doubling of activity on the train systems between China and Iran. But now you've also got the country's Mahan Air, which just got sanctioned by the United States,
[05:53] suspending all flights to Oman and Turkey, yet another cargo route crushed by sanctions and U.S. efforts. And I'm definitely not here to try to shill, you know, that the Trump blockade is working,
[06:07] but to me, I'm seeing signs of cooler heads. You know, the lack of new attacks on ships, cargo ships, oil tanker ships, is a good thing.
[06:20] China getting involved to chill out the Houthis is a good thing. The Saudi-East-West pipeline will be back online probably in three to four weeks. I think that's a good thing. Donald Trump actually getting involved again, as opposed to slow-walking negotiations, is a good thing.
[06:37] Iran having major issues circumventing the naval blockade, even just to some degree, like this. videos posted on social media last week shows cranes at one of Iran's largest commercial
[06:51] container ports at a standstill as thousands of containers remain stranded in Pakistan, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Basically, you got this blockade over here and you got sanctions hitting them from all the other ends. You got Karachi, Pakistan over here. They're going
[07:06] to be stuck. You've got Afghanistan here. You've got Iraq over here. You're not really getting your product in or out They kind of getting through which should open the door to more diplomacy from Iran or more of a desire to strike a deal Now the Caspian Sea could obviously be an
[07:24] alternate route out, and traffic in the Caspian Sea has gone up about 70% in part because of this blockade. That's right here. But you still have problems. And so my hope is
[07:37] that we have peace here now behind us, and we can start recovering. Obviously, we have big dates ahead of us. We have the 22nd and 24th for Taco Tuesday and then Chinese Thursday,
[07:50] I guess. You do still have the concern that the United Nations is now calling U.S. strikes against the Iranian school, a clearly identifiable school, a potential war crime. Still have
[08:04] concerns that we're running low after that Pentagon report on interceptors, that we're not remanufacturing fast enough, and frankly that we took way more damage than was previously let on, that is a little bit of a black eye that Donald Trump has to deal with with midterms,
[08:20] and getting a deal before midterms would be really beneficial. So a lot of reasons to see relaxation from all sides. It makes me cautiously optimistic that some of the heavier sets of pain might now be behind
[08:35] us. This is the Axios reporting on President Trump expected to hold a meeting with Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, cited by three sources with direct knowledge, tell Axios.
[08:49] Axios is usually pretty good at actually getting scoop out of the White House. Post-war strategy is what the goal is going to be. In order to have a post-war strategy, you need the war to end.
[09:04] So I find this good. Obviously, last year, at this time, we had the Gaza peace plan, which, you know, it comes into question about how much funding is actually flowing through there. How much peace is there actually in Gaza, given that Israel has gotten really aggressive in Gaza and Lebanon, looking to basically force all of the weaponry out of the areas.
[09:30] Of course, you've got Israel claiming that they're going after leftover Hamas cells in Gaza and that they're not fully disarmed, which was part of the Gaza peace plan that Hamas would disarm,
[09:43] which we did question how Donald Trump could argue Hamas is agreeing to throw down their arms when there's really a lack of leadership. You've got really splinter cells throughout Gaza. And then, of course, you've got Hezbollah to the north in Lebanon that Israel is having to deal with.
[09:58] really the same splinter cell context over there, maybe less so, maybe a little bit more coordinated to the north than what they're dealing with in Gaza. So the bearish view here is that
[10:10] that Gaza peace plan didn't really go anywhere. The bullish view is we got a peace plan or a concept of a plan at the same meeting last year.
[10:22] And now there's a meeting between Gulf states and Trump, same place, same time we got something bullish out of last year. Donald Trump's also ramped up his commentary in just the last few days
[10:34] that the war is going to end soon and that he's hopeful there's going to be a deal. Not yet, but it's coming. See, we're hopefully towards the end of the war, Donald Trump said as recently as yesterday.
[10:47] We've heard that same crap over and over again, so nobody's holding their breath for this. But my point is we have gone from you know this war is going to go on for the next two years we slow walking a deal to hey we got some real catalysts here for at least
[11:06] some more optimism that, in my opinion, is going to drive oil off of the 100, the triple digit level. I am therefore optimistic that this was peak fear over here.
[11:18] Over the last week, this double top right here was peak fear, which we did make videos on the channel talking about peak fear. And frankly, we've been buying the dip as well in the stock market around it. And of course, we've been sending those alerts
[11:30] to everybody in the Alpha membership, which you can join as well. Just go to meetreinvest.com. You can click on the Alpha membership. You can see all the beautiful, wonderful things that are included in the Alpha membership.
[11:42] You also get free access to the Reinvest Terminal for a period of time once you join. The Reinvest Terminal is going to be frickin' amazing. I cannot wait for this to come out. It's really going to be a consumer-grade version of, like, a prosumer version of the Bloomberg terminal,
[11:58] but I think it's going to be so good in the future that you won't even have to use something like a $2,500 a month Bloomberg terminal. That's sort of my guiding light is I want to beat them. I don't like the doomers, okay? I got beef with the doomers.
[12:10] So I'm coming for you. and so if you join the Alpha membership you'll get probably like over $1,000 worth of value out of the terminal for free just for joining the Alpha membership
[12:23] so we're going to raise the price on the Alpha membership again Friday night that's tomorrow night and we've got our flows worked out on this new website, everything's redirected now to Meet Reinvest, it's kind of weird I'm so used to everything being Meet Kevin
[12:36] and now it's Meet Reinvest it's kind of cool, you go to meetkevin.com it redirects to Meet Reinvest It's like, oh, man, poor Kevin got gutted. But that's okay. All in on the startup, man. I love this baby.
[12:49] So I'm optimistic. Who knows? Maybe I'm too optimistic. But I think what I've been saying, the buy the dips we've been doing and sending trade alerts on are the right move. And so I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I could be wrong, obviously.
[13:02] This is a personalized financial advice video. but the delta that I'm seeing between what led up to, because if you remember three weeks ago, I said, crap, this period of time between now and the election
[13:18] could be a time where Iran ramps up attacks. I made that video. Within a week of that video, we get seven tankers attacked, the U.S. is attacking tankers, Iran is launching MLRS,
[13:30] Iran is launching, you know, threatening the lay mines. They're capturing our sea drones, our, you know, UAV, so to speak. Well, it's not an aerial vehicle, so it's UVV, or whatever it's called.
[13:45] You know, they took our sub, our unmanned sub. And then you've got this strike by the Houthis after they advanced to the Mokapur, I guess the Saudi East-West Type 1 pumping facility.
[13:57] That was a lot. But I think now that peach is behind us. So we told that escalation was coming. The escalation came. We bought the dip. Now I think the escalation is over.
[14:09] Now just because we were right then doesn't mean we're going to be right now. But that's the reason for my optimism. And I think it's just fair to lay that on the table and be transparent about it. I'm hopeful. I'm looking forward to these days. I don't know about advertising.
[14:21] These things that you told us here, I feel like nobody else knows about it. We'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. Kevin Parker, F.I. National Analyst. And you too, but meet Kevin.
[14:33] Always great to get your take.