---
title: 'How I Made $40,000 Betting on the NFL Last Year: Tips & Strategies to WIN (Step by Step Tutorial)'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=mSripn4Lffc'
video_id: 'mSripn4Lffc'
date: 2026-09-19
duration_sec: 1388
channel: 'OddsJam Sports Betting Picks'
---

# How I Made $40,000 Betting on the NFL Last Year: Tips & Strategies to WIN (Step by Step Tutorial)

> Source: [How I Made $40,000 Betting on the NFL Last Year: Tips & Strategies to WIN (Step by Step Tutorial)](https://youtube.com/watch?v=mSripn4Lffc)

## Summary

This video is a comprehensive guide to profitable NFL sports betting, presented by Alex, who claims to have made over $40,000 last season. It covers foundational principles like line shopping and taking advantage of promotions, then dives into more advanced, data-driven strategies including arbitrage betting, middle betting, positive EV betting, and correlation betting on fixed-payout DFS sites.

### Key Points

- **Introduction and Credibility** [00:00] — Alex introduces the video, stating he made over $40,000 betting on the NFL last season and gave out all his plays for free on Twitter and YouTube livestreams, allowing viewers to verify his claims.
- **Core Principle: Line Shopping** [00:56] — The most important tip is to use multiple sportsbooks because they set their own odds, creating an inefficient market. Betting at worse odds (e.g., -260 vs -210) erodes all value and long-term profitability.
- **Low-Hanging Fruit: Sportsbook Promos** [02:34] — Sportsbooks run lucrative promotions like odds boosts, profit boosts, and risk-free bets to attract customers. These are especially effective for smaller bankroll bettors to grow their funds.
- **Strategy 1: Arbitrage Betting** [03:38] — Arbitrage involves betting on all outcomes across different sportsbooks when their odds are out of sync, guaranteeing a risk-free profit. Example: betting Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown on one book and not to score on another, locking in a profit regardless of the outcome.
- **Strategy 2: Middle Betting** [11:12] — Middle betting exploits discrepancies in player prop lines between sportsbooks. By betting the over on a lower line and the under on a higher line, you win both bets if the player's stat lands in the middle range.
- **Strategy 3: Positive EV Betting** [14:09] — Positive EV betting involves finding bets where the odds are better than the true probability suggests. By removing the vig (using a no-vig calculator) from a sportsbook's market, you can identify fair odds and bet when another book offers better value.
- **Strategy 4: Correlation Betting** [19:40] — On fixed-payout DFS sites like PrizePicks, pairing positively correlated picks (e.g., QB over passing yards with WR over receiving yards from the same team) increases the chance of winning without changing the payout.

### Conclusion

The video provides a solid foundation for profitable NFL betting, emphasizing the importance of finding value through line shopping and exploiting market inefficiencies with strategies like arbitrage, middling, positive EV, and correlation betting.

## Transcript

Yo, what's up YouTube? Really excited to bring you this video because that means it's football season, or at least close to football season. I'm going to be breaking down how to bet on the NFL, some strategies, as well as some tips.
It's going to start out a little bit beginner level, but we'll ramp up as we get in the strategies that you can use to make money betting on the NFL. So my name's Alex. Last year, I gave out all my plays for free, by the way, on Twitter or on YouTube livestream.
So you can go back and verify all of this. But last NFL season, I made over $40,000. And I'm super pumped for it. I'm not going to lie. I do think NBA is a more profitable sport to bet on because there's a lot more games.
With NFL, we only get games Monday, Thursday, and then obviously a ton of games on Sunday. Regardless, really excited. So let's get into it. So my first tip, it's not only relevant to the NFL.
literally every sport, this is the core of profitable sports betting, is you need to be line shopping, which just means using multiple sports books. I've used literally over 50,
depending on where I'm living at the given time. All of these books set their own prices. They set their own odds, which is really unique if you think about it, right? Like, if you want to buy a stock, it doesn't matter if you buy that stock on Apple or Fidelity, you get the same price.
However, in sports betting, that's not the case. It's a very inefficient market. Every book wants to be unique, so they set their own odds. So, for example, I bet the Bears money line at minus 210. Every other sports book has this like minus 250, minus 260.
So I got really good value on my play. So when you look at my NFL profit from last year, $40,000, if I was betting things at minus 260 instead of minus 210,
all the value evaporates, that makes a huge difference in your ROI long term, right? Like, sports betting is not about winning one bet, it's about winning long term, and if you're not finding value, you're not getting the best possible odds, you don't even stand
a chance, right? If you're betting things at minus 260, when other books are offering minus 210, you know you're getting ripped off, right? Like, imagine being a day trader, buying a stock at $260, as opposed to $210, you won't
stand a chance at making money. So line shopping, finding value, that's really the core of profitable sports betting. And you just got to be doing it. I mean, if you're not doing it, don't even gamble.
So my third tip, and sorry, you're getting a bunch of different outfits in this video. I recorded this over a few days. But regardless, my third tip, or my second tip, whatever, is take advantage of the low hanging fruit, which is sportsbook promos. All these books are commodity businesses, they
just take bets. So to try to be unique, to try to draw in customers, they run promos, they run discounts, and some of these discounts are really lucrative. So on PrizePix, this is even before the season started, they had three discounts, NFL season-long player props.
All of them were super profitable, so I took advantage of them, right? Everyone loves to talk about who's winning this week, Chiefs or Bears, which side of the spread are you on? But the easiest money you're going to make in all these books run them is through
promos. On FanDuel, you'll see odds boost, profit boost, risk-free plays, where if you lose, you get your money back, and you should be taking advantage of them, especially if you're a smaller bankroll better. These promos are super effective at helping you grow your bankroll. So now we can get into
some strategies. I follow a super data-driven approach to my sports betting, so all of these strategies are very data-driven, and the first one, I love this strategy, is how I started sports betting and these my first $40,000 is called arbitrage. Arbitrage sports betting. So there's
a ton of resources online on Reddit, Reddit threads, YouTube videos to learn about arbitrage. I've done videos on this topic, but essentially all sports books set their own odds. So for example,
in the Panther States week one game, you can see that the over 37 points, this is an alternate total market is minus 157 on Pinnacle. On Bet365, it's minus 210. So essentially, arbitrage
betting is when two sportsbooks get super out of sync. They have such different odds that you can bet the over on one book, the under on another book, and guarantee a profit. So I'll give you an example of an arbitrage bet that I locked in, which was a player prop.
I gave this play out on Twitter. A bunch of people were able to tail it for a risk-free profit of $8. So in this case, two sportsbooks that I used as an arbitrage bettor, you want to use as many bucks as possible. You're essentially just day trading the books, inefficiencies in the
market to guarantee a profit. And the numbers may not seem big, but you do it multiple times. So for example, this arbitrage bet is making a risk-free profit of $8. It literally took me only
20 seconds to lock this in, and I give out tons of arbitrage bets, you know, on a daily basis on my Twitter, so you can follow along if you want to make risk-free money. But anyways, this discrepancy was between Flip and DraftKings. They had super different odds on Lamar Jackson
scoring a touchdown. So on DraftKings, I bet $175, that's essentially what they limited me to on Lamar Jackson to not score a touchdown at minus 175 betting 175 to win 100 in profit and then on Flip a different sportsbook you know all these books got got their own odds I bet on Lamar to score a touchdown at plus So essentially regardless of what
happens, regardless of what happens, if he scores a touchdown or doesn't score a touchdown, I'm making a risk-free profit of approximately $8. That's arbitrage betting, day trading the
books, inefficiencies in the market, and sports books, this may seem crazy, but there's millions of NFL lines up on sports books every week, right? Every book is setting lines for player
props, main lines, everything. So on the rare few scenarios where two sports books get super out of sync, you can bet the over on one book, under on a different book, and guarantee a profit. It's an amazing strategy. You've got to put in work. These arbitrage bets aren't
kind of place themselves, but if you put in the work to find these plays, lock them in, you can make a lot of money with arbitrage. So I really think the best way to really learn and understand arbitrage betting, this is what I did when I started arbitrage betting. I had my friend
who was a really good arbitrage bettor. He took me through a bunch of examples. So again, arbitrage, it's a way to make risk-free money based on two sportsbooks getting super out of sync and having way different odds. And this example I'm going to take you through is on Lamar Jackson.
Swift has Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown at plus 200, so you're betting 100 to profit 200. On DraftKings, his under, him to not score a touchdown, was minus 175.
So you have to bet 175 to win 100 and profit. So these two books are super out of sync, and you can guarantee a win. So the first thing I did is these sportsbooks, they set max betting limits.
You can't just bet whatever you want. I wish you could just bet whatever you want, but that's not how it works. So I saw on DraftKings, they're only going to let me bet $175.67 on Lamar Jackson to not score a touchdown.
So I put that into this calculator. It's called an arbitrage calculator. And basically what it does is you put in your stake on one book, and it shows you how much to bet on the other book. In this case, $91.67 on Swift.
And you guarantee a profit of $8.33. So what this means is if you bet $91.67 on Swift on Lamar to score at plus $200, you bet $175 on him not to score on DraftKings at minus $175,
it doesn't matter what happens. If he scores or doesn't score, you are going to make a risk-free profit of $833. However, I rounded my bet size on Swift. I like to round my numbers.
I think it's less sketchy, you know, to the sportsbooks. You want to round your numbers. ideally to the nearest hundred, something like that. But in this case, I did 97.50 on flip on Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown at plus 200.
So you're betting 97.50 for a total payout of 292.50. So now I figure we can just kind of go through the math, because I have two different bets on, as you can see right here. I have 97.50 on Lamar to score a touchdown at plus 200,
and 175-67 on Lamar to not score a touchdown at minus 175 odds. So I'm going to show you how I guarantee a win no matter what. So I'm betting 273-17 total, and if Lamar does score a touchdown on flip,
I'm going to win 97-50 times 2. I'm betting 97-50 at plus 200 odds. I'm going to win 195 in profit, and on draft kings, I'm losing 175-67.
If Lamar scores a touchdown, I win my bet on Swift, and I profit $195. I lose $175.67 on DraftKings, so I come out with a net profit of $19.33.
So if Lamar scores a touchdown, I win my bet on Swift, I lose on DraftKings, but I profit overall $19.33. Now on the other hand, if Lamar doesn't score, I lose $97.50 on Swift.
Lamar doesn't score a touchdown, I lose $97.50 on flip, but on DraftKings, I win $175.67 times 100 over $175. I win $100.38 for a net profit of $288. So the reason it's not exactly the $8 risk-free
profit is because I rounded the arbitrage calculator a bit to try to get to the nearest round number. But regardless, you get the point. If he scores or if he doesn't score, I just took
you through the math, I'm making a profit no matter what. And that's the power of arbitrage betting, is these bets, this specific arbitrage play. I log into Flip, I log into DraftKings, I place my bets, I guarantee a profit day trading the sportsbook. It takes like 20-30
seconds to lock in your bets. That's it. Now we're already up $8 on average risk-free. Move on to the next arbitrage play. Sometimes there's really good arbitrage bets, sometimes there's not, but my goal as a sports better is essentially walk in as many of these plays as I
can. Each one takes only, you know, 20, 30 seconds to play. We're making, let's say, $8, $10 risk-free on average. Hit 10 arbitrage bets in 30 minutes on, you know, an NFL Sunday where the average
profit is $10. You just guaranteed yourself $100 profit. That's amazing, right? You're day trading the books to guarantee a profit, you're growing your bankroll, and also now you have some money,
if you want, to throw on some of your parlays and stuff like that. So the next data-driven strategy that I absolutely love, it's somewhat similar to arbitrage betting, but it's called middle betting And I call middle bets the low lottery tickets of sports betting So essentially all books set their own odds their own lines And especially in the NFL and college football sometimes two books especially when they first released market
they set lines at way different levels. So for example, you can see in this game, this was from last season, the Minnesota quarterback, his name's Afton, his line on prize picks, they opened him up at 201.5 passing yards, and then on FanDuel, they had his line
at 184.5. So you have this big discrepancy. These books are 17 yards different on a QB's passing yards line. So what you'd want to do is bet the over 184.5 on FanDuel, the under 201.5 on prize
picks, you're paying the juice, but in the rare scenario, the quarterback has 185 to 201 yards, then you win both bets. You win your over and you win your under. So many people think of sports
betting about, is the game going to go over or under? But at the end of the day, it depends where is the line set, right? In this case, we bet the over 184 half, the under 201 half. We're
always going to win at least one bet, but in the rare scenario, and it's a fun sweat, that this guy Aspen has exactly 185 to 201 passing yards, we win both bets. So this is another strategy,
day trading the sportsbooks. It's called middle betting. You'll see tons of people online having success with it. I love this strategy, especially for the NFL receiver prof, QB passing prof.
There's a lot of opportunities with middle. Definitely recommend it. So as a recap, so far we've gone through three strategies to make money off the sportsbooks, all very data-driven, super profitable, taking advantage of promos like discounts, odds boosts, risk-free bets.
We've gone through arbitrage betting, which is a way to guarantee a risk-free profit off the sportsbooks. Bet the over on one book, the under on a different book, and you guarantee a profit. and we've gone through middle betting, which is when books are out of sync in where they're setting a player's line.
That's over 184 half on one book, the under 201 half on another book. So if you enjoy this type of content on data-driven sports betting, please like the video, subscribe to the channel,
and comment any questions you have. I love this. I love beating the sports books I've been betting for... Man, I can't even remember the last day I haven't placed a bet for years and years and years, and I really love helping other people learn how to beat the sportsbooks.
But anyways, the next strategy, I probably spend most of my time on this strategy nowadays, is called positive easy betting. And it's essentially risking capital for an expected return.
So the way you can think about this is being a poker player. If you're the best poker player in the world, and you show up to a table, you know you're not going to win every single hand. However, you know because you're the best player,
the most skilled player, even though sometimes you're going to get dealt two seven, over the course of the long run, you're going to make money. So that's essentially what positive EV betting is, is you're finding discrepancies in the
market and taking advantage of them. So I'll give you an example of a play that I locked in on a sportsbook called Swift. It's Williams under three and a half receptions. This was a play I gave out on Twitter.
So I bet on flip. Williams under 3.5 receptions at minus 105 odds. Again, the odds are super important. All of sports betting is about finding value.
Nobody wins every bet, right? Placing a bet at minus 105 versus minus 150 is a completely different bet. So let me take you through why I like this play and why it's profitable.
So you can see on flip, they have Williams. His over is minus 135. You have to bet 135 to win 100 in profit. His under is minus 105.
You have to bet 105 to win 100. So this sportsbook, Fliss, they're the only book with Williams favored to go over three and a half receptions. They have his over favored, his overs juiced.
So according to Fliss, they think that's the more likely outcome. However, you look at every other sportsbook, FanDuel, DraftKings, BetOnline, Caesars, all these other books, Williams is a big favorite to go under 3.5 receptions.
So, for example, on Flitz, they have his over at plus 102 and his under at minus 139. So the under is a pretty heavy favorite around minus 139, and on this other sportsbook, Flitz, we're able to get minus 105.
Again, all books set their own odds, their own lines. That's why the markets are super inefficient, fragmented, and there's a lot of opportunity to make money. So Caesars is telling us, hey, we think they should be priced at minus 139 odds.
On Flick, we can get it at minus 105. So the analogy I like to give is it's kind of like being a stock trader and having all these other stock markets telling you, hey, we think this stock is worth $130, and then you can buy it for $105.
dollars. We have all these other sportsbooks, billion dollar companies, these books that are taking bets, moving lines around based on where action is coming in. They're saying, hey, we think this is minus 135. This is the favorite outcome, the under. We think this is 135. We're able to
bet it at minus 105 on flip. It's like being able to buy a stock at $105 when it's trading in the market at 135 So if you think of how a sportsbook makes money it by charging a spread called the So for example on Caesars they have the over at plus 102 the under at minus 139 It kind of like a stockbroker saying hey I buy this stock for 102 I sell it for 139
They make money by charging a spread. So to figure out the true odds, the fair odds, you need to remove the big, which is called using a no-big odds calculator.
So you're essentially squeaking out, removing the spread or the VIG that a sportsbook is charging. So if you do that to Caesars Market, plus 102, minus 139, you'll see that the fair odds with the VIG removed, you squeak out the spread,
is approximately minus 117. So it's kind of like if a stockbroker says, I'll buy this stock at 9, I'll sell it at 11, you can kind of back out the midpoint at 10,
so that's what they actually think the stock is worth. That's called fair value. So what you do in sports betting is you remove the big from a sportsbook's market, and in this case on Caesars, the fair odds would be minus 117.5 for the under.
We're getting minus 105 on flip, which is a better price. So the true price, according to Caesars market, when you remove the big, is minus 117.5. We're able to get this at minus 105 on flip, so it's a profitable bet.
It's a positive EV bet. It's like if the true price of a stock was $117 and we were able to buy it at $105. That would be a plus EV trade. We're getting $1250 of value relative to the market.
And again, this specific bet may not win, but if we're finding bets that are plus EV value to the market long term, we are going to make money sports betting. That's the power of plus EV betting is all these sports books, Caesars, DraftKings,
FanDuel. They're multi-billion dollar companies. They're experts in setting lines. And most importantly, they have access to flow. All of these sportsbooks are taking bets. They're moving their odds based on where action is coming in. Bets are coming in from sharp customers. They're
profitable customers, which is why it's so important to find value between sportsbooks. If every book is saying, hey, we think this should be priced at minus 140. We're able to get it at minus 105, that's a clear indication of value. And you need to be finding value as a sports bettor
if you want to make money long term. So the next strategy we can discuss is super effective for the NFL in betting on same game parlays, when you're playing picks in the same game. And it's called
correlation betting, and it's very effective, especially on fixed payout fantasy sites, like prize picks and underdog fantasy. So the way that prize picks works is they have fixed payouts.
Any two picks you select, you're going to get a 3x payout. So you're putting down 20 to win 60. So for example, if I take Travis Kelsey over, Saquon over,
I'm going to get 20 to win 60. If I switch Saquon to an under, I'm still getting 20 to win 60. If I replace Saquon with Jalen Hurts, I'm still getting 20 to win 60. Literally, any two picks you select on the board, doesn't matter if it's NFL or not, on prize picks, you are going to get 20 to win 60.
So where this really starts to matter is when you start pairing picks from the same game. So for example, for a three pick entry, you get a 5x payout. If I take Kelsey over, Mahomes over, Shaquan over, I get 20 to win 100, a 5x payout.
If I take Kelsey over, Mahomes under, Shaquan over, I replace one of the picks. I'm still getting 20 to win 100. But you're probably thinking, well, that wouldn't make much sense.
Why would you take Travis Kelsey over in receiving yards and Mahomes under? And that's exactly the point, right? If Mahomes has a great game and throws for over 263 half passing, then Travis Kelsey is going to be a lot more likely to go over.
If Mahomes has a good game, has a lot of passing yards, Travis Kelsey is going to be much more likely to go over his receiving yards line. So taking Mahomes over and Kelsey over, those two plays are positively correlated.
It doesn't make any sense whatsoever for the exact same payout to take Mahomes over, Kelsey under, as opposed to Mahomes over, Kelsey over, or, you know, Kelsey over, Mahomes under.
You obviously want to pair QB overs with wide receiver overs for players on the same team. You can think about it like Travis Kelsey's line is 271.5. That's over 25%.
That's almost 30% of Mahomes' passing yards line. So if Mahomes goes over, Kelsey's a lot more likely to go over. So this is called correlation betting. It's really effective on prize picks. Prize picks sometimes, depending on the type of slip, what you're trying to pair,
you'll occasionally see them add in payout shifts. So you need to be a little shifty. But regardless, correlation is a super effective strategy. especially in football, to make money on these fixed payout DFS sites like PrizePix.
Regardless, I hope you enjoyed this video. I know it was a little long, but we discussed a ton of profitable betting strategies, taking advantage of the low-hanging fruit promos.
We explained arbitrage and middle betting, which are two very low-risk betting strategies, very data-driven. We explained positive EV betting as well as correlation betting. and I really, really hope this video makes you more money going into NFL season.
Please comment any questions, like and subscribe to the channel, like the video, and email me anytime if you have questions about short, profitable sports betting. I live for this. I love this. Thank you so much for your time.