---
title: 'Back from Vacation | Stocks Rocket'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=KHXXmxApxrk'
video_id: 'KHXXmxApxrk'
date: 2026-07-22
duration_sec: 1505
channel: 'Meet Kevin'
---

# Back from Vacation | Stocks Rocket

> Source: [Back from Vacation | Stocks Rocket](https://youtube.com/watch?v=KHXXmxApxrk)

## Summary

The host returns from vacation and analyzes the day's market movements, highlighting a bullish rebound in the S&P 500 (QQQ) to 627 and a precise Tesla drop to $414.50. He discusses the impact of Kevin Warsh's nomination, Oracle's debt, and software sector weakness, while promoting his real estate investment platform.

### Key Points

- **Return from Vacation and Market Outlook** [00:02] — Host returns from vacation and predicts a move to 627 on QQQ, 41450 on Tesla, and downside for Robinhood, based on no early liquidations.
- **Warsh Nomination as Buy-the-Dip Opportunity** [01:39] — The negative reaction to Kevin Warsh's nomination is seen as a buying opportunity since he doesn't take office until June and needs confirmation.
- **Oracle's Debt and Equity Concerns** [04:00] — Oracle has about $25 billion in debt and $20 billion in equity, leading to potential downward pressure from share issuance.
- **Gold and Silver Tumble on Warsh News** [04:41] — Gold and silver tanked hard on Friday, with Warsh seen as a top signal for these metals.
- **ISM/PMI Data Beat but Show Risks** [05:11] — ISM and PMI reports beat expectations but contain bearish details, hinting at production slowdown and employment risks unless demand improves.
- **SanDisk and Memory Stocks Risk** [07:21] — SanDisk is up 3x since $20 analysis, but faces risk from OpenAI's 40% DRAM contracts and potential Stargate slowdown.
- **QQQ Hits 627 Target** [09:28] — The QQQ reaches the predicted 627 level, confirming the rebound thesis.
- **Tesla-SpaceX Merger Talks Dilutive** [11:27] — Advanced talks between Elon Musk's XAI and SpaceX could lead to a dilutive merger for Tesla shareholders, used to fund XAI.
- **Yields Rising on Inflation Data** [12:23] — PPI and PMI data show input and output prices trending up, pushing yields higher and countering Trump's lower rate goals.
- **Palantir Earnings and Software Rebound** [14:25] — Palantir's after-hours earnings could reverse the software sector's decline, with many software stocks like ServiceNow down 50%.
- **Disney Warns on Foreign Tourist Drop** [17:26] — Disney warns of a hit to US theme parks as foreign tourist numbers fell 6% last year, partly due to geopolitical tensions.
- **Software Stocks Pummeled by AI and Economy** [22:08] — Software stocks are down due to economic uncertainty and AI disruption, with AI services like OpenAI's Codex threatening traditional software moats.

### Conclusion

The market shows a cautious optimism with a rebound in QQQ, but risks remain from inflation, software sector weakness, and geopolitical factors. The host emphasizes trailing stops for momentum names and watches for a lunchtime selloff.

## Transcript

All right, here we go. Here we go. Welcome on back everyone to another Welcome on back everyone to another live stream. We are back from vacation. We're really grateful to be back. Uh and so as usual this morning, we're like,
member live stream, we're back from vacation. So unless we get massive liquidations in the first five minutes, we're probably going up to 627 today. Uh we're probably going up to 627 today. Uh we called for 627 on the cues. Called
for 41450, our line 414 on Tesla. Uh and Robin Hood down. Take a look at what happened today, folks. Holy smokes. No
liquidations at the A.M. which was our bullish signal for the cues that we're going to 627. We start moving towards 627 over this last, you know, 45 minutes 627 over this last, you know, 45 minutes or so. Tesla, I kid you not, we called
in the pre-market. This was probably going to 414 because of the XAI SpaceX going to 414 because of the XAI SpaceX talk. It hit my line. Exactly. Which was scary. Uh and then uh and then Hood is selling off mostly because of a crypto
it bounce on the line right here too within like 18 cents of it. That's remarkable. This is a gray line, but that might actually upgrade it. So kind of perfect bounce right there at 90. remarkable. So, I think great calls in
the alpha today. Uh let's knock on wood that we can keep it going. But I think that optimism is is really just that the worsh negativity really just broadly for everybody, the worsh negativity isn't actually practically going to be
negative until he takes the job. He doesn't take the job until uh you know June and he's still got to get confirmed. So, a lot of this actually creates a pretty juicy buy the dip opportunity. like a lot of stocks are
I think that's so I think there's You're welcome for the buy the dip opportunity. Went on vacation. Uh here's Lauren and I. We found massive PP. You can see we located some PP over here. Uh
you know uh the Meta glasses, the water resistant Vanguard ones are great. Just resistant Vanguard ones are great. Just a heads up for actual water. Uh so really quite enjoyed how soaked you could get here. Uh you've got uh you
know obviously uh the Vanguard glasses perspective on roller coaster rides as well. So have to say big fan and the color here at sunset was gorgeous. I was talking briefly we we did an analysis on
big water in Disney World in the Magic Kingdom in in the middle with the boat. All that water is going away and they're baby. Obviously, you've got the Tron
ride. That was pretty incredible. We did all four parks in one day. Uh which was kind of fun. Uh you know, the way you got to do it is you got to go with with a group and kind of get like a VIP thing going, you know. Uh obviously, this is
probably my favorite coaster out there, but this is um uh this is Islands of Adventure. The Veloca Coaster is probably the best roller coaster that exists. Uh like over here in the loop, it actually rides the top of the loop,
which is just insane for a roller coaster. So, uh Incredible Hulk, you coasters as a kid, so that's always a fun one to go on. It's like 25 years old now. So, that's always fun. Uh but but you can see just with these glasses,
it's fun. But, uh in case you ever want to, you know, see more of those sort of stories or insights, make sure you follow me on Instagram. That's uh all follow me on Instagram. That's uh all over at Instagram is meet Kevin and uh X
over at Instagram is meet Kevin and uh X is uh realme Kevin. Now something to know about what we talked about this weekend on X. We uh we mentioned some of weekend on X. We uh we mentioned some of the risks related to uh Oracle's debt
about about $25 billion of debt uh and uh about $20 billion of equity. So you're going to see some downward pressure on share
issuance um over at um at Oracle uh and obviously taking on a good chunk of more debt here. So uh important to watch and uh
suffering. You know, I was in line too. We were we were watching what was going gold and silver. I mean, it was it was remarkable, which um yeah, if you watch my video Friday morning, I even talked about how, you know, WASH was likely a
about how, you know, WASH was likely a top signal for gold and silver. Uh and uh and I mean, they tanked hard on Friday. Holy smokes, that was crazy. Obviously, you know, crypto's getting hit. Uh but uh you
know, broadly, I think people look at our ISM and PMI reports this morning. Both of them beat by the way. Some risks in them. Like if you look at the uh S&P manufacturing read that came out this morning, you like they were bullish on
the headline, but then in the deets they were a little bearish. You know, this was a little bearish. They're like this unusual situation is clearly hinting at the risk of a production slowdown and a potential knock-on effect
of employment unless demand improves marketably. So, you know, to me, I took my bare bull scale and because of worsh, I reduced it uh a whole percent. Uh so, a whole point. So, I'm at like 55 right now,
which is still optimistic, but it's like cautious optimism, right? Cautious optimism remains. Uh worsh was a negative catalyst. It did give us a buy of the dip opportunity. Is not what I expected to happen. I did not think
Trump would make that kind of loony of a decision, but you know, whatever. Uh and then, you know, Hood is obviously getting whacked because of the uh you getting whacked because of the uh you know, because of crypto exposure. Um
know, because of crypto exposure. Um so, Uh then uh SanDisk, you know, this is just really incredible because it's like
every day this keeps going. Uh we'll talk about this in just a moment. Hold >> here. Listen here for a moment. >> DXY back above 97. wins the day on that one? >> Um I think that the debasement trade and
hand ringing over really stems from fiscal and and that's why like the Fed all kind of a big distraction. It all comes down to fiscal. I don't think when it comes to the the fiscal trajectory. Uh gold is kind of your
quintessential debasement asset. It was 44% above its 200 day moving average. You go back through all of history when since GO gold's been floating um freely and it has only hit that point. >> All right. Whatever. So, sorry about
that. I had to get a piece of toast cuz I have too much tea first thing in the morning. Oh morning. Oh Okay, so SanDisk,
this is like the greatest meme cycle ever and it's glorious because they actually do make a crapload of money. So it's kind of like meme cycle combined it's kind of like meme cycle combined with really good numbers.
The problem is the only problem is Open AAI. they have 40% uh of DRAM contracts and wafers under OpenAI.
OpenAI. So if Star or Stargate slows down, which that's being talked about that Soft Bank and the UAE or whatever, they're all frustrated that you know things are slowing down with Stargate.
That is a risk factor to the memory stocks. And as I've been saying with memory stocks, you don't sell the memory stocks. You know, we did our fundamental analysis on SanDisk when it was 200 like 20 bucks. It's 3xed since then. Roughly
3x, which is remarkable. This is not a sell stock. This is a trailing stopper. Trailing stopper would have been glorious on gold, by the way. have been glorious on gold, by the way. If you had an 8% trailing stop on gold,
it would have gone up to 5,500 and you would have been out by like h depending on exactly where 5,60 to 5100, you know, now what is it like 4600 or whatever. Trailing stops are useful for
those really big collapses and you still get the benefit of the upside. It's one of the best ways uh to to trade momentum names. SanDisk will probably one day
names. SanDisk will probably one day have a big 50% collapse. So that's not because they're, you know, their fundamental value is fair at about the fundamental value is fair at about the mid twos. It's just because of Sam Alman
likely contributing to the temporary downfall probably not something we have to worry about super soon, but something to keep about super soon, but something to keep an eye on. Now look at this folks. 627.
an eye on. Now look at this folks. 627. Let's freaking go folks. Holy smokes. Let's freaking go folks. Holy smokes. Holy smokes. 627. That's incredible. Um I mean straight rebound on all this war stuff, which is again expected. The
reason you look for a rebound, why? Because he's not going to do anything Because he's not going to do anything for months anyway, right? It doesn't freaking matter. So, um,
text of the alpha this morning and I explained this verbally too so I could explained this verbally too so I could add some context to it, right? Uh, so um, my call for today was I'm watching 617
hold at the open, you know, watching for a risk of a dump in the first five minutes. mostly because of liquidations and as I said if we don't get those we slog back to 627 on the cues if we hold 617 in the first five minutes slow
uptrend seems reasonable today 627 is the target and then I was bearish look at this Tesla likely to our 414 line which is exactly 41450 uh and and then crypto exposed likely down including hood
uh and so that was um that was just part because then we have some long-term stuff. So, we do short, medium, and long-term generally in the alpha report. And so, you can see we held that 617 from the morning here. You could learn
pay for it. You could learn from it. This is again on just like, you know, you had 3 days of red on the cues. Time for a rebound. We got the rebound here. Uh we didn't get the drop at the open, so we continued. We held 617, continued
so we continued. We held 617, continued to 627 on Tesla. You could see it perfect drop to 41450. I actually don't know that I've had it this perfect cuz it it nailed it to the penny. And and really the idea here is that there's
talk now expanding that there are quote advanced talks between Elon and Elon uh advanced talks between Elon and Elon uh at XAI and uh SpaceX and some people had pumped up Tesla in the hope that Tesla and SpaceX would merge which then of
would be really dilutive to you as a Tesla shareholder. Like people think, "Oh, I'm magically going to own SpaceX if I hold Tesla shares." But no, you're diluted. They'll issue twice as many shares to go buy SpaceX at a premium,
the massive premium, the fattest premium possible. And uh you know, the actual outcome to the shares might might not be that near-term desirable, especially as I suspect uh Elon Musk would would use it as a liquidity ploy to continue to
fund his money losing business at XAI. That's my take. You know, I'm I'm a little bearish on on the uh XAI buildout. Uh so not great. Uh somebody buildout. Uh so not great. Uh somebody here says yields are up five pips each.
So uh the problem with this is if you actually look at the producer price and actually look at the producer price and PMI reads, look at the inflation chart, PMI reads, look at the inflation chart, right? So you know PPI last week was
high. I've got input prices and output prices both trending in the wrong direction. So, one of the reasons you're continuing to see those yields go up, in actually look at the what the manufacturers are saying, things are
of peaked out right over here on liberation, but we're not continuing down. We're coming back up. See this little like extension over here. So, you know, it's too early to really say, but
it's something to watch. And, uh, that that definitely is contributing uh to a move in yields, uh, which isn't great. you know, I've got the tenure up 3.8 basis points. It's not great. You know, that undoes a lot of Donald Trump's
desire to have uh, you know, lower rates for home buyers. But then again, we know that in the short term, manipulation by an administration and central planning isn't a way to actually run an economy. The free market always tends to win. I
shouldn't even say tends to. The free market always wins. Uh but um you know it's crazy that China's pulling off more free market than us and like you know portions of Hong Kong and otherwise.
portions of Hong Kong and otherwise. It was remarkable. So now Elon talking to himself doesn't sound healthy. All right, All right, let's do a quick um scan here of uh what
let's do a quick um scan here of uh what else we got going on. Oh. Uh, today Summer, Violet, and Jay's birthday. Two years ago, Summer almost died. She's years ago, Summer almost died. She's alive. He's great. I hear him out there.
alive. He's great. I hear him out there. Um, so today's her birthday. Palanteer is after the bell. That'll be huge, by the way, for software. A lot of
software stocks have act like absolutely gotten reamed. Palanteer could reverse that which would be very nice. Uh the uh oh yeah and then of course remember that uh it's just a smaller note if you
haven't obviously considered it yet. This um the reinvest AI uh at fund raise This um the reinvest AI uh at fund raise expiration is uh February 6th. So, a where we're fully caught up. Should be
able to shut that door pretty hard. So, read the solicitation there. But if you wanted to uh uh wanted to check that out, you could do that over at house hack.com or reinvest.
And that fund raise closes Friday. My million dollars have cleared and they are in the house hack bank. All right, good. So, then we have here housing tilted towards buyers. Let's take a look at some of the news. this morning.
Obviously, there was a lot of uh drama over the weekend with uh not of uh drama over the weekend with uh not just crypto, but also the Epstein files. Less market related. I think the Epstein files probably increase the odds that
Donald Trump will get impeached for a third time, but that's all like a midterm thing, which is kind of wild. Um, so hold on a second. Let me close the door. Does uh reinvesting I help with design choice and color? Uh yes, in
the future, not now. Uh in the future it will. So home buyers last year purchased at a discount to the original port uh listing discount to the original port uh listing price. Highest proportion since 2019.
Nice. Uh a little bit more buyer power. Uh that's cool. Uh but these are these think that's a actually a really particularly useful
uh chart to care about. Okay, so nothing really on the journal today. Vanguard slashing fees again. Saw that this morning. CBOE more options.
Yeah, remember broker dealers love options. You have to remember that the reason they love options is frankly because it's a thinner market. So they could take a whole lot more of a spread between that bid and the ask. And that's
where the dollar hollowos are. You know, that's why these these like trading firms like Citadel, they make so much money. It's not on always being like a king trader. It's by basically by being a market maker. You know, they win on
every single trade because they're just taking the spread. Uh you know, almost every single trade obviously. Uh but anyway, so fine. Uh, you know, I think Robin Hood just introduced same day options on like Nvidia and Tesla
expiring 3 days a week instead of uh, you know, uh, you know, sometimes you'll get them weekly, sometimes you'll get them every 3 weeks, right? Uh, so Disney them every 3 weeks, right? Uh, so Disney warns of hit to US theme park as foreign
warns of hit to US theme park as foreign tourist numbers fall. Wow, look at that. That I did not see. Look at that. guidance comes after a 6% drop in foreign visitors to the US last year. Yeah, this doesn't surprise me. You
know, we have a lot of tourists that come from Mexico and Canada and and there are a lot of people who are who are kind of pissed. Uh they feel like uh you know, their countries are getting bullied, but uh I don't know what would
make them think that. That'd be crazy. All right, what else we have here? Um ice agents hate being filmed. I mean, I don't think anybody really likes being filmed. Puts you under the spotlight.
So, all right. Let's see here. Deep fried stocks that spurred the market melt. Oh, this is Indonesia. Okay. Deep fried. Um,
very actual little news today other than the uh S&P PMIs manufacturing numbers, which we already went through those here, which again came with that red flag warning right here. the numbers are
really great but but potentially unsustainable as there's inventory unsustainable as there's inventory building uh going on here. Uh so I find that very interesting. Uh okay. So then we've got
okay. So then we've got let's see here. the app. It says it's closed. Yeah. Um we we did not think that we would open
uh the fund raise again. So just go to househack.com uh cuz we did a very brief extension through Feb 6 here. So if you go to househack.com you could just press invest right here.
to use the app. No tenants, no toilets or headaches. Invest in diversified real estate and real estate software as a service. 5% plus upside real estate backed. Invest with credit card a wires. No fees. Investment round closes
No fees. Investment round closes February 6, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. We raised $10.8 million in the 30 days ending Jan 20th, 15.1 in the 90 days uh ending Jan 20th. Um percent yield paid monthly through conversion. Conversion to stock
exceeds our valuation today at the earliest uh in 27. Anyway, obviously a solicitation. There's risk with every investment. Okay, I got all of that out. It's always a mouthful. All right. So, but yeah, you don't have to use the app
to to invest. Look at that. Oh, freaking awesome alpha call today. Beautiful line awesome alpha call today. Beautiful line to 627. So, um what else do we have going on? SanDisk keeps going. It's actually really impressive. Uh not a lot
of news. We got that Robin Hood recovery right on 90. I might increase the color of this line now. Uh I'm going to go green over here.
green over here. Uh, okay. Then I've got here. Uh, palis.
this. This has been a little anchor to the toilet. Uh, a lot of the software, I mean, this has been since 2021, right? Anchor to the toilet. A lot of software stocks recently have gotten hit, but
look at the volumes on PATH. The volumes like doubled the average volume over They're in the middle of a potential turnaround. The problem is you've got a right now. Look at, for example, Service Now, which is actually rebounding right
now. Look at Service Now. Service Now has lost 50%. Holy smokes, dude. So today today's a big deal with Palunteer because you know it could be good for for software and potentially see some rebounding here.
But look at Adobe man. This is just a spear straight down. This is insane. Uh then I've got what's another one? Service Now CRM is another one. Salesforce slow down. I mean the only software company that's killing it is
the advertising over at Google. Look at that. Beautiful at Google. not we're basically all-time highs today on Google. And then Meta had a nice recovery after earnings, but certainly doing nowhere near as well as Google.
Uh, very good. Okay, let's go see. So, we got uh let's Okay, let's go see. So, we got uh let's go hit the economist. software stocks are getting pummeled? Well, it's clearly because of uh the
artificial intelligence seatbased takeover, the uh agentic artificial intelligence. This idea that these new services from Google or Claude uh will they say. The main reason behind the slowdown is the economy. Oh, they say
it's the economy. Look at that. Workday, Salesforce, Service Now. During the pandemic, businesses spent on software and that spending soared. Low rates helped companies borrow heavily to invest. With workers and consumers stuck
at home, many bosses felt they had to improve their digital offerings. After the pandemic, a surge in uncertainty trimmed such spending. But could an AI upheaval be just around the corner? Pundits have focused on two threats,
OpenAI's Codeex and Clawude Code, among other things. Basically, the idea is, hey, you know, spending slowing down in part because of the economy, but also part because of the economy, but also potentially because of, you know, AI
potentially because of, you know, AI services like eating into the um moat of software. You know, it's a lot easier to make an app now and put a wrapper around AI or whatever. That's I think the lame way to do it. it's a lot harder to
actually build a real artificial intelligence model that that you yourself use uh for a specific purpose. That is what we do at at Reinvest AI. We build and train our own models. Uh but it's it's specific, you know, vision-
based and valuation models, but they have to be uh you know, because nobody's done it. There's no plugin for that. Kind of interesting. So uh but otherwise, yeah, the seedbase have just been getting crushed. Uh, and then, uh,
let's see what else we have here. 99 cent. Oh, thanks for the 99 cents. Um, yeah. I mean, there's honestly very yeah. I mean, there's honestly very little in the way of news today.
Uh, so look at that. Oh my gosh. Rejecting at 627 or or, you know, failed breakout essentially. I don't know what it is with the lines, man. The lines the lines just kill me. They're funny. But yeah.
House Hack or Reinvest, just email us at irir@houseack.com. Uh IR, like investor relations@ househack.com. Uh near-term, I do want to flag near-term bearish Tesla post earnings, postpiv uh you know, but
there's still some hope regarding um the Starlink, you know, merger there. we'll look at that one in the course live tomorrow. I'm going to go take the their first day to school going to school and it's their birthday. So, I
love y'all. I don't want to feel like or seem like I'm bailing. I think today's a, you know, special opportunity. So, uh stay tuned later for a big video on AI and Oracle and Sam Alman and all that. I think it'll be a really good video. And
then, of course, as usual, watch for that uh watch for that lunchtime selldown. Uh we'll see how it goes. But, uh great great great work everybody this uh great great great work everybody this morning. I appreciate you all. I love