---
title: 'The Fed SHOCK Hits *TOMORROW* | Watch BEFORE WEDNESDAY'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=RIruchen9JY'
video_id: 'RIruchen9JY'
date: 2026-06-28
duration_sec: 785
---

# The Fed SHOCK Hits *TOMORROW* | Watch BEFORE WEDNESDAY

> Source: [The Fed SHOCK Hits *TOMORROW* | Watch BEFORE WEDNESDAY](https://youtube.com/watch?v=RIruchen9JY)

## Summary

The video analyzes the strategic timing of a potential US-Iran oil deal ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting led by Kevin Worsh. The speaker argues that Trump is orchestrating oil price drops to influence the Fed toward rate cuts, countering market expectations for hikes. The analysis also covers market reactions, cash levels, and the AI-driven deflationary outlook.

### Conclusion

The video suggests that Trump's geopolitical moves are designed to enable rate cuts and sustain market growth, while warning of potential recession risks under Worsh's deflationary stance.

## Transcript

Donald Trump is playing a great game of
4D chess with markets. And with the
Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow and
Kevin Worsh's first Federal Reserve
meeting, oh, it is so weird to say that.
No JP, pal. Dang, we have to prepare for
what we should expect for tomorrow. Now,
let me start by saying this. I think
there is absolutely zero shocker that
Donald Trump is doing everything in his
power to get a deal signed with Iran,
including begging BB to stop attacking
or striking Hezbollah inside of Lebanon
for obviously retaliating against
Hezbollah, who's retaliating for Israel,
attacking Iran, who'sal, this keeps
going, okay, we don't need to go down
this rabbit hole. Point is, Donald Trump
is like, "Yo, we need this deal done
this week and we need to do everything
in our power to get oil prices to go
down because we need Kevin Walsh to be a
good little puppy and start talking
about rate cuts because that's what the
market is not doing right now." And so
far, Donald Trump's call it
announcements or convenient timing or
manipulation is working out quite well
for oil. Now, that is creating some
nervousness in the stock market, but
I'll explain exactly why in just a
moment. But first, regarding oil, take a
look at this. International Brent crude
down under 80. Let's freaking go. That's
actually huge. My goal was to get to
about $65 to $70 by the first quarter of
2027.
We're already at $79 in June. That's
fantastic. WTI sits at 76 bucks. So, we
still have a little bit of room to go.
But one of the big reasons we're
dropping today is because of this Wall
Street Journal exclusive, which
indicates that the Trump Iran deal is
immediately allowing Iran to sell oil.
In other words, if you've been paying
attention to what Donald Trump has been
saying, he's been consistently saying
that oil is going to drop like a rock as
soon as a deal is signed. And so, it's
no surprise to me that the deal is
actually going to immediately, there's
no like, hey, we'll give you half of the
$24 billion now. Hey, if things go well,
we'll give you $300 billion in
investment money over time and Jared
Kushner is going to help you rebuild.
There's none of this like, hey, we'll
talk about it later crap. It's quite
literally the provisions for waiverss of
sanctions on oil take effect immediately
upon signing the agreement this week and
also enable whatever is necessary to
make sure that banking infrastructure,
transportation, insurance policies,
whatever it is, even if the United
States has to do an insurance like
guarantee fund or whatever is done to
make sure that oil keeps flowing. I kid
you not. This is all part of the plan to
make sure that Kevin Worsh can show up
tomorrow and talk to us about recuts
because that's how you keep this boom
going. It's not just going to be SpaceX,
which obviously is doing a fantastic
movement. I'm very happy about because
we got a lot of money in SpaceX, but
hey, you know, let's be clear here. It's
going through its meme movement. This is
what we thought. We're like, "Okay, it's
going to get a little bit of a meme bump
for the first 15 to 30 days cuz nobody
can sell." Uh, even people who bought on
IPO day, a lot of brokers require them
to hold for at least two weeks. So, this
is totally reasonable. We made a little
SpaceX and Tesla video this morning. You
should check out if you haven't seen it
yet. But most importantly right now is
what do we expect for Kevin Worsh
tomorrow? Well, I've said it before and
I'll say it again. And I think Kevin
Worsh is going to be an anchor for
interest rates. He has no appetite to
actually increase interest rates. But
when there's a big inflationary regime,
obviously there's going to be a lot of
pressure to potentially raise rates. So
what is the market doing right now?
Well, the market is screaming at the
Fed, you should raise rates. In fact,
with about a 58.6% 6% likelihood. The
market says the Federal Reserve should
raise rates once by the end of the year.
And with about a 16% likelihood, the
market should or the Fed should raise
rates twice by the end of the year. And
if we go to the uh let's see, July 28th
of 2027, we would only have about a
combined 31% chance of staying where we
are with rates or going down. Only about
a 2.3% chance of getting a rate cut. So,
the market's not pricing in any cuts.
The market's pricing in two rate cuts
certainly by next summer, but maybe even
by the end of the year. And in order to
U-turn that, you suddenly need
inflationary pressures to tank. Pun
intended, because now we're going to
have tankers tanking oil by literally
tanking oil. Get it? Anyway, uh oil
prices are tanking because oil is
finally going to get tanked out of the
straight of four moves again. And this,
in my opinion, is all happening
purposefully right before the Kevin
Worsh meeting tomorrow. Think about it.
The Federal Reserve, they start their
meeting today. Wow. Hey, big news on the
Wall Street Journal conveniently, right
as the meeting starting, you know, maybe
a couple hours into the Fed meeting.
We're going to give insurance
guarantees. That's been rumored that
part, but we're going to enable
insurance a colloquialism for insurance
guarantees, I think. uh and we're going
to make sure that they can transport oil
immediately without any kind of delay or
issues and we'll let the Iranians sell
their oil to the global market.
Conveniently, as the Fed meeting starts
today, the Fed meeting ends tomorrow
morning and it culminates with a rate
decision. We'll probably get a hold and
then of course we'll get Kevin Walsh's
yapping. Now, I'm personally really
excited to see the Kevin Wars yapping
because I think today uh you have a lot
of market participants that are kind of
nervous. They're like, "Oh my gosh, what
are we going to get? The Fed's going to
be forced to talk about a rate hike.
This is bearish. Let's take some money
off the table." We also get a summary of
economic projections tomorrow. Unless
Kevin Worsh for some reason removes the
summary of economic projections, it is
an SEP meeting. But what's more
interesting to me is that right now
you've got a lot of people with a lot of
money in markets and I think people
hearing, "Oh no, the Fed meeting is
tomorrow." Has people going, "All right,
all right. Well, let's be a little
cautious. We had a big run yesterday.
Maybe we don't want to be so aggressive
going into a Fed meeting." Today in the
course member liveream, I actually said,
"Hey, to don't do not expect it to
rocket like it did yesterday." Yesterday
in our course member live stream in our
alpha report I'm like hey I bet up today
like calls baby and today what we said
in the alpha report was be careful a lot
of the juice has already been thrown
into the market on Monday we had a great
extension yesterday expect that to slow
down today as people get nervous about
the Fed in fact we specifically pointed
out the 735 line which we've been rubber
banding aroundish here I really hope we
close at 735 really don't want to lose
that 730 35 line although it is a pretty
loose line. Anyway, uh one thing to note
is financials are actually doing pretty
decently right now. Visa, JP Morgan,
Veru, SoFi, all doing really well. And
even though Robin Hood is red today, it
has shot up over the past few days from
about the mid to low 70s. That support
somewhere around 69 to 80 in that range
is where we kind of keep bouncing up on
Robin Hood. So financials are starting
to kind of be like, "Hey, Kevin, you
looking for another sector here.
Look at that." I mean, look at my my my
shares.
Uh yeah. So anyway, where were we? Oh,
yeah. Uh over here, Bank of America.
Look at this. This I thought was
actually kind of incredible and imply
like reiterates to me why there's some
red today. Bank of America private
client cash holdings as a percentage of
assets under management. Keep in mind
Bank of America doesn't manage real
estate. So when you know like for
example, House hack has a bunch of
assets. But if you just look at you know
stocks to cash that's going to be very
different than if you look at the stocks
we own versus the real estate that we
own because we own so much more real
estate. The reason I say that is because
Bank of America private cash holdings
are not going to show you percentage of
cash cash compared to real estate. And
so if people had real estate and stocks,
their actual cash allocation would be
even lower. And right now we're at
basically the lowest level of cash
allocation we've seen going back well
forever in this chart which is about
2006. We briefly bottomed out around
that bond crisis at the end of 2018 and
early 19. It looks like over here
actually this I think this is all bond
crisis at the end of 18 over here. So
basically no cash fear right now which
is surprising that during the bond
crisis people were plowing money in and
not really raising cash. Maybe the bond
crisis is actually that little peak
right here because people freaked out in
like December. So it's a little hard to
see where that line is right here. So
maybe right before that bond crisis
right here, right? Anyway, it's been a
while and so people don't actually have
that terribly much cash right now. And
of course, we're seeing outflows in
crypto. We're seeing outflows in gold.
Not a surprise that we're seeing
outflows here. Both of these heavily
driven by momentum. Kevin Worsh is very
bearish for gold. I call the top on gold
when Worsh was chosen and we topped
within 2 days of my call on that.
Honestly, I think Kevin Worsh could
usher in 8 years of a bare market for
gold. That should sound really bearish
for gold bugs and I apologize. It's my
opinion. I'm just going to give it to
you straight. Uh this unfortunately this
is where the tech is the the momentum is
rather. So I always like to be cautious
about just like chasing momentum. Tech
flows are obviously quite high but
that's also where like earnings happen
to be. And right now Bank of America
private clients hold 65.5% of their
assets uh at Bank of America in stocks
with 17.4% 4% in bonds. And I wrote, you
better hope the market doesn't crash cuz
that's a lot. It's pretty big. Uh, also,
Bank of America is under the impression
that Kevin Walsh is going to turn
hawkish at the July 29th FOMC. And to
me, I wrote that the market doesn't
actually peak until the market prices in
rate cuts again.
And so, if Bank of America's like, "Oh,
he's going to turn hawkish." That's
probably why you're seeing red in
markets right now because some of the
institutions are like, "Oh, yeah, no,
you know, things are going to go uh uh
they're going to hawk to us. They're
going to hawk to us real bad." I'm like,
"I don't think so, but whatever." So, uh
again, I think there's no surprise that
Donald Trump is timing this, you know,
these oil announcements right before the
Fed meeting because it's going to give
Kevin Walsh the license to say, "Hey,
boys and girls, look, we know there have
been some inflationary pressures. We
think they're one-time inflationary
pressures along with all the other
onetime inflationary pressures we've
seen. And ultimately, we think the
artificial intelligence deflation is
going to show up. And when it shows up,
then, you know, we'll um uh we'll be
able to go back to rate cuts. And to
some extent, you will see it come up. I
mean, something that I thought was very
interesting is that sonnet uh the AI
model costs about 120th of what Opus
over at Claude costs. and a Kimmy from
Moon Moon Moonshot AI, the Chinese
startup, cost about 120th of what Sonnet
costs. So, it's like you've got all
these like cheaper choices of LLMs. And
I think that's going to keep happening.
So, I actually agree with Kevin Worsh.
That's his sort of that's the reason why
he's at the Fed. He's a deflation bug.
Uh I really hope we don't have a
recession under WSH. We probably will,
but I really hope we don't because I
don't think he's going to run the money
money printer like JPAL would, which is
a risk factor because well, while it's
probably healthier and more free market
is a risk factor in that you will go
through pain for longer, which isn't
great. Now, obviously going back to
looking at the market for right now,
it's not just I mean, obviously SpaceX
is getting everybody's attention right
now. This is part of the meme cycle. But
I do want to also point out that Google
talking about these LLM models. Look at
this. Google again rejecting 374. Uh and
so it it's really not been able to get
through that 400 level even though there
was a period of time it was really
pushing for it. Uh and uh now we're kind
of getting stuck in the mud. Look at
that. We briefly broke out to 404 and
now we're getting rejected by some of
these upper lines here. So a little
shortterm bearish there on Google.
Anyway, that's uh that's what we got. I
will see you live for the Fed meeting
tomorrow. Thank you so much for being
here. Consider following me on Instagram
and X and we'll see you in the next
video. Goodbye and good luck.
>> Why not advertise these things that you
told us here? I feel like nobody else
knows about this. We'll we'll try a
little advertising and see how it goes.
>> Congratulations, man. You have done so
much. People love you. People look up to
you.
>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst
and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great
to get your take.