[00:00] for Barack Obama. [upbeat music] @Sean17Henley asks, "So in your opinion,
[00:15] I think we are uncomfortably close to it. So we already have a major land war in Europe, that has killed probably hundreds of thousands of people
[00:32] We've already seen a major conflict in the Middle East in seven or eight countries, and we see this state of war between the United States
[00:44] could lead to major refugee flows. if you look at the map of World War II. And now, the third piece of this could be the Taiwan Strait.
[00:57] that it doesn't see Taiwan as separate from China. and the Taiwanese increasingly do not wanna be If China were to try to militarily take control of Taiwan,
[01:10] then we'd really be in a situation where that entire map of World War II, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, East Asia, I think the bigger reason
[01:22] of people who are in charge of the most powerful countries Vladimir Putin in Russia, Xi Jinping in China,
[01:34] Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey. they are strongmen. These are the kind of leaders that can get into conflict.
[01:46] doesn't seem like the Chinese are looking for a world war, to have territorial expansion again, a United States that may try to take land
[01:59] a China that may try to take land in Taiwan. and given the fact by the rules that were set after World War II
[02:13] that's why we set up the United Nations, As those rules and laws and institutions are being ignored, with way too much risk of the potential
[02:26] a conflict among the great powers. @ninzaverse asks, "What if China wins the AI race?" so if whether, you know, a large language model
[02:41] in the US is the first to get to some AGI, it's not I think there are some security people or at least maintaining that lead
[02:53] because if they do, they could pose cyber risks to RAI, if you take the premise that we're all getting there, whose technology does the rest of the world use,
[03:09] of the AI race. but it's gonna matter a lot whether Africa and Europe decide to use American or Chinese AI.
[03:25] If you will remember, one of the grievances that Trump had of the world was starting Huawei and telecommunications is nothing compared to AI.
[03:38] If most of the world ends up running on Chinese AI, Like, their economies will depend There's obviously all kinds of ways that the Chinese can,
[03:53] can use artificial intelligence technologies to kind of spy So now you're starting to see the AI race become about who is going to win the domination
[04:07] and Trump is starting in the Gulf, right, of computing power, essentially, from US companies I think that this is complicated, though,
[04:20] to think of this in terms of LLMs, right? of AI to date might be with an agent, a ChatGPT or a Claude.
[04:32] by saying, well, if you put and you say what happened in Tiananmen Square, I remember meeting with somebody, a Chinese investor,
[04:49] who kind of looked at me, of what happened in Tiananmen Square? We wanna dominate robotics."
[05:04] that they had a one-child policy for a long time. and they want to continue to be able What do you need for that?
[05:18] You need robots to take the roles of younger human beings of the rest of the countries in the world want?
[05:30] They want industrial efficiency. that the American AI is designed for what American economy is, which is services, right,
[05:43] or, you know, creative economies or white-collar economies. The Chinese AI is going to have these other uses And so, it's not necessarily about who gets
[05:55] The question is, whose AI is the world gonna run on? because they are developing AI technologies
[06:08] and if those developing countries, as they have in other cases, look to China those countries are gonna have [keyboard keys clicking]
[06:21] PoppyBell123 asks, "Why can Iran It's a question weighing on all of us right now.
[06:33] At core, this is fundamental to the kind of identity The Iranian Revolution happened in 1979 to oust a US-backed autocratic government, the Shah of Iran,
[06:48] as the kind of power behind the autocratic leader So the Iranian Revolution wasn't just against the Shah,
[07:00] so it was in the DNA of the Iranian Revolution into the Islamic Republic of Iran, that lead
[07:12] This kind of idea that this wasn't just an Islamic Republic, an Islamic state, it was also a country that was against Israel and the Middle East
[07:26] That kind of infused the Iranian government from the beginning, and then it kind of moved out that the Iranian government backed for many years
[07:39] On the other hand, the United States tends If you look at the countries So we have a Cuban Revolution under Fidel Castro
[07:58] in the late 1950s against a US-backed corrupt autocrat. in the failed Bay of Pigs Invasion in 1961 Ever since, we have been pretty fixated
[08:15] I mean, maybe the Cuban Missile Crisis it did, we still have an embargo on Cuba, I think We were humiliated in 1979.
[08:29] when they took our embassy personnel hostage inside of Iran. If you fast forward, too, there's been this kind and Iran over the years, often through Iranian proxies.
[08:44] So, in Lebanon, the US Marine barracks was bombed by Hezbollah, you know, an ally of the Iranians. After the Iraq War, when the United States invaded Iraq
[09:00] Iran's biggest adversary, Saddam Hussein, by kind of Iranian-backed militias inside of Iraq. So, you've had kind of an ongoing state of conflict, really,
[09:14] Add to that decades of US sanctions on Iran, At the end of the day, in the Obama years, we tried to at least restart diplomacy.
[09:27] It was just meant to solve the nuclear problem, but I felt at that time, and certainly experienced, in the United States that are just dead set
[09:40] with any piece of the Iranian system, They're committed to regime change. in Iran, they are a threat to us, they must be removed.
[09:56] in aspects of American politics and government, that is very prevalent in his administration. a lot of Iranian Americans who had to leave Iran
[10:11] under the Islamic Revolution, and this kind of obviously then plays into the mindset in Tehran that the US is our enemy, our existential enemy,
[10:24] in this conflict spiral with the Iranians, and at any time, that can lead to a pretty explosive war of 90 million people, you're talking about a country
[10:37] We decapitated that regime, took out its leaders, the Revolutionary Guard inside of Iran, so you've got a recipe that could lead, could,
[10:54] in the event [keyboard keys clicking] @DireReport asks, "When have sanctions ever, Name one single time ever."
[11:08] I do not think sanctions work. If you look at the most heavily sanctioned countries Russia, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela, how did that go?
[11:24] I'll just take Cuba, which I worked on. with Cuba in the Obama administration. to squeeze that government out of existence,
[11:36] but the reality is we had the strongest sanctions possible, All it did is entrench the Cuban government in power. you're not gonna get change in those countries,
[11:51] We said we're trying to help the Cuban people Well, we have done nothing but make the lives We said we were going to change Russia's behavior.
[12:06] the more he's been sanctioned. sometimes it makes people but we just don't have a lot of evidence
[12:18] of certain kinds of leaders and governments. The rest of the world is getting pretty sick of the fact that we control the world financial system
[12:32] I think you can say, of course, in normal trade with governments or some kind of national security threat.
[12:44] in place often ends up punishing the populations because what we do is we don't just say other countries that trade with you.
[12:59] that leads to currency problems in those countries. Guess who figures out the way around that? there's an entire black market economy that developed
[13:14] if you're just a small businessperson, but if you're the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard, So I often think sometimes we end up empowering the people
[13:28] that we're actually trying to undercut with sanctions. Okay, Raminax asks, "When and how did the word globalist of essentially political, security, financial elites
[13:43] since the end of the Cold War. really after the global financial crisis in 2008. of the Iraq invasion, which made the security elites look
[13:58] and then you have the bottom fall out of the global economy and middle-class people all over the world. to see this kind of building resentment
[14:10] or international conferences, as if they know better than people around the world And you've really seen this take off over the course
[14:23] of essentially the globalist class has fueled a lot where that system is being broken apart,
[14:35] Now, of course, the solution to those who don't like globalism is increasingly nationalism, or in China or certainly in Russia
[14:48] and other places, Turkey, Israel, this rising nationalism, We are going to do what we want to do in this country. We don't wanna let people in.
[15:03] in some international system of rules that constrain us. to control your own country, make your own decisions, that were more globalist to begin with is nationalism led
[15:18] and so this is kind of really the tension, which is often conflict, out of touch elites [keyboard keys clicking]
[15:32] in the interests of people around the world. TankSubject6469 asks, "Why the world is shifting And if I had to give a shorthand answer, I'd say this.
[15:46] by the time, say, Barack Obama was elected in 2008, on their traditional identities. or in some places, suddenly, the global culture
[16:01] in a way that makes me uncomfortable, right? or in the United States, there's a view that there's this kind of overly liberal culture
[16:15] So I think people were already uncomfortable with globalization, but the basic bargain was, This is ultimately a net positive for me.
[16:27] and all of a sudden, it feels like, wait a second, Globalization isn't working on me. There are these people moving into my country,
[16:40] of living is not getting better. inside my country. and I see a bunch of people getting screwed down here
[16:52] What's interesting is even though there's a kind as someone who is to the left of the center on these things, you get the exploding inequality
[17:08] the backlash to globalization was captured by right-wing populists, by right-wing nationalists. of politics there is, an us versus them politics.
[17:24] us, the real Hungarians, us, the real Russians, the globalists, the migrants, right,
[17:36] And I think what we've seen is almost kind of a set because this is not limited to the United States, This is happening all over the world,
[17:49] in Hungary, in Russia, in India, in Turkey under Tayyip Erdogan, in the Philippines under Rodrigo Duterte.
[18:04] What they have in common is people unsettled to the most familiar form of politics there is, nationalism, us versus them.
[18:19] I think those of us who are on the center left in our politics over the course of the last 15 to 20 years,
[18:31] and we tried to kind of solve the problem almost What can we do to arrest the collapse of the global economy? for people from governments?
[18:46] that people felt against elites. We weren't speaking to the need that people had to belong and what ended up happening is that the Democrats
[19:01] those are the center left parties in Europe, because we're people that wanna follow rules, even though we might have had a lotta problems
[19:16] we allowed ourselves to be cast and institutions that people were sick of. somewhat realistic solutions to the current state in Gaza?"
[19:33] but let's go through some of the possibilities. If you listen to the right wing their solution is pretty clear, they want to control Gaza.
[19:49] they want to move the Palestinians out, This is not my view. And already, Israel has essentially control
[20:05] over 50% of the Gaza Strip, even under the agreement So one possible scenario is Israeli control, because where are those Palestinians going to go?
[20:19] into ever-shrinking pieces of land? that Palestinians are pushed in the same way that we've seen them pushed
[20:32] Another solution is this kind of redevelopment and under the Trump plan, to provide security after Hamas is demilitarized,
[20:50] to the Jared Kushner presentation I mean, this, I think, is nuts, in the next 10 years,
[21:05] You have to clear tens of thousands You have to clear the rubble, right? just to clean up the destruction
[21:20] Hamas has not demilitarized. if not impossible, for a peacekeeping force where Hamas is still the kind of controlling power.
[21:34] Yes, you would want Hamas to demilitarize. to come in, but I see some real problems I think the best solution to the problem is
[21:49] of a Palestinian-Israeli settlement of some kind, of Palestinian leadership that is negotiated as a part of a Palestinian state that is going to be
[22:05] That creates greater incentive for Hamas to go away creates a lot more incentive for the Arab states as kind of willing partners to ethnically cleansing Gaza
[22:20] They all of a sudden have a lot more reason to kick in money The problem is there's no indication from Israel in any kind of resolution with the Palestinians whatsoever.
[22:35] in the West Bank?" and ultimately annex the West Bank. that territory into your sovereign borders
[22:49] But we should rewind the tape. to go through a little bit of the history. So first of all, after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War,
[23:02] Israel conquered all the land That included East Jerusalem, Between 1967 and the Oslo Accords in 1993,
[23:17] inside of the West Bank. the West Bank is occupied territory. It is Palestinian territory that Israel formally occupies.
[23:29] You're not supposed to move into occupied territories but that's what Israel started to do over time. as Israel's moved further and further away
[23:44] particularly since the election of Benjamin Netanyahu in 2009, is a rapid growth in the Israeli settlements. the Israeli settlements are making the idea
[23:57] It's kind of a network of checkpoints and security barriers, Palestinian homes and structures are being demolished
[24:09] Every time you have Israeli settlements set up, and Palestinians are kinda pushed where they have second-class citizenship.
[24:21] we're going to see either a de facto Then the question comes, what happens to the Palestinians of military occupation with kind of second-class citizenship
[24:37] or are they gonna get [keyboard keys clicking] or other surrounding countries? to describe Israeli actions in Gaza?"
[24:50] and I understand the very profound emotions I say that as someone who has been sympathetic for reasons that I'll talk about,
[25:05] that lost a lotta people in the Holocaust, so very complex. of is this a genocide, first of all, the definition
[25:19] in whole or in part. That's the legal definition, and this is important. It's about whether you have an intention
[25:32] and it doesn't have to be completely destroy them, And to give some examples in recent history, that there was genocide in Darfur
[25:44] and targeting people for destruction there. there was a genocide taking place where the Uyghurs were not even really being killed,
[25:56] because they're basically being put forcibly So I say that to give the context that it doesn't just mean Are you trying to eliminate a people in whole or in part?
[26:11] You've had a significant number of organizations say This includes a United Nations Commission of Inquiry, including Israeli human rights organizations,
[26:25] Why have they said this? First of all, they point to some of the statements made And so, after October 7th, and at the beginning
[26:40] you have had statements that were clearly in which essentially Gaza was put under siege,
[26:52] and water and power into Gaza, There had been imagery that talked of Gaza City or parts of the Gaza Strip.
[27:08] Then, there's the conduct of the military operation itself, of whole apartment blocks being leveled. there's really almost nothing left standing.
[27:22] they were not taking any care to avoid killing significant numbers of civilians. That encompasses Hamas fighters and civilians.
[27:36] But then there's also this question And there, actually, I would say, are pretty clear they wanna destroy the Palestinian people.
[27:52] such as a Palestinian state, They're just Arabs who happen, you know, to live here, And so, if you take the combination of these things,
[28:05] the state intent that goes far beyond just destroying Hamas, of the people of Gaza, the military operation and by the way, that has continued
[28:18] to restrict basic goods getting into Gaza, right, at anywhere near the levels that are necessary, they go far beyond just the violence of bombs,
[28:31] because of those restrictions of food getting into Gaza, to essentially kind of eliminate the Palestinians as a category of people with a right to sovereign territory.
[28:46] because, particularly on the further right side of Israeli politics, it's a very religious point of view. That kind of runs up against international law
[29:02] of Palestinians that live between the river and the sea. that adds up to a genocide. who will say that's not the case.
[29:15] Hamas started this latest war I would certainly say, on the latter point, yes, with an abhorrent, grotesque attack
[29:28] That doesn't give you carte blanche You're supposed to follow laws of war that were set up to prevent mass atrocities,
[29:42] So, at a minimum, I feel very comfortable I think it's quite clear that war crimes are committed, far beyond kind of legitimate self-defense.
[29:56] the most significant war crime that can be committed and frankly, this isn't over yet.
[30:08] that they're not trying to eliminate the Palestinian people, have a legitimate right to self-determination. So, cynicalxidealist points out that, "Some young Americans
[30:21] If you read Osama bin Laden's fatwas, his writings, of American society and foreign policy have some credence.
[30:36] and in part because he was trying to appeal and Europe, has hit upon arguments, you know, I also believe it's the case
[30:50] of the last 25 years, our reaction You know, we've invaded Afghanistan, Iraq,
[31:03] military operations all across the Middle East Is it better? of young people kind of looking
[31:17] and I'm gonna come back to that, of this war on terror seems like it was nuts, you know? Now, I think the problem with this is,
[31:32] of people is completely unjustified. from what bin Laden actually did. that some of what bin Laden said was intentionally designed
[31:48] If you look at his words inside of Afghanistan, which completely represses women, He certainly believes in violence
[32:03] So I think there's kind of an airbrushed bin Laden here. that young people may have seized on, and look at what George Bush said
[32:17] And he said this in his famous speech because they hate what they say here. and I thought it was bullshit at the time.
[32:30] or because of what happened in Congress. that the United States supported these regimes he hated, that the United States supported Israel, right?
[32:44] but we have to be able to be uncomfortable that goes around the world backing regimes and going to war. Like, bin Laden was a bad guy who did bad things
[32:59] but bin Laden was also not the cartoon version Okay, a Reddit user asks, "Change my view. for peace we have ever invented."
[33:13] that because nuclear weapons are so devastating and the proof point they might use is that the United States and the Soviet Union had thousands
[33:27] and never went to war directly Now, there's something to this. The idea that if both countries have the ability
[33:39] However, I think there are a couple of problems with this. despite the existence of nuclear weapons. because of those nuclear weapons to support proxy wars
[33:57] Classic example of this is the war in Ukraine. because he believes he can't be stopped the Biden administration would say there's a limit
[34:11] to the Ukrainians because we're worried about getting I think the bigger problem I have, though, until they are used.
[34:24] in a world in which a very small number of people have the capacity to destroy entire countries. that there are far less of them,
[34:37] because essentially, if you normalize the proliferation that, at one of these flashpoints and that's obviously nothing [keyboard keys clicking]
[34:51] "Why and when did USA-China relations become so hostile?" after Donald Trump's first election, that were leading things in this direction already.
[35:06] China is this emerging power, up to, say, the election of Barack Obama, beginning to become more confident of itself
[35:21] But always the idea that analysts have they're gonna get bigger, they're gonna get richer, We brought them into the World Trade Organization,
[35:33] And then, over time, they'll start to follow rules And by the time we got pretty deep
[35:49] this is in 2013, it was pretty clear So first of all, China was breaking a lotta rules. and using it to build their own companies, right?
[36:07] in a variety of ways to advantage their own capacity without necessarily importing that much stuff in essentially trying to erase Tibetan identity
[36:24] inside of Tibet, or ultimately to move into Hong Kong which was supposed to be separate from China's. on intellectual property theft.
[36:36] And so, there was a lot of frustration I think, in the Obama years, it was still the idea, though, It's better to have lines of communication open.
[36:49] There's trillions of dollars of trade that flow through us. or the South China Sea that we don't wanna see explode, we may need to impose certain penalties on the Chinese,
[37:04] to have more leverage on the Chinese, Well, when Trump came in, he tore up that playbook,
[37:16] with the Chinese to address what I think has been and we've been in a trade war with China ever since. you saw all the kind of dialogues
[37:31] to communicate essentially collapse, And Xi Jinping, for his part, in trying to build essentially an alternative
[37:45] I'm building a whole set of institutions in Southeast Asia that I want to be led by China,
[37:57] And so we've really been living since around 2016, 2017 and it doesn't really show [keyboard keys clicking] Okay, @tulobh asks, "When will Xi invade Taiwan,
[38:14] First of all, there's no guarantee it's necessary to do a little bit of history. And why is Taiwan so reluctant to be a part of China?
[38:30] under Mao Zedong conquered China, won the civil war, of China, he fled to Taiwan with a lot of people, right,
[38:43] but Chiang Kai-shek comes, and he essentially takes it over. So, to the Chinese Communist Party, this is a gigantic piece This is the last piece of territory
[38:57] and it's also the piece that was an adversary because, after 1949, for a long time, in Beijing as the government of China.
[39:11] in Taiwan as the government of China. that should be in charge. Why is Taiwan reluctant to go along with this?
[39:26] that, in the '90s, you actually had a democratic revolution but essentially, that Chiang Kai-shek government, was very authoritarian
[39:41] and thought of themselves as very Chinese. of China, even though they're in Taipei. and the kinda post-Cold War movement
[39:55] to democracy led to the KMT essentially being ousted and ever since then, you've had Taiwan's politics evolve that they are not Chinese, they believe they are Taiwanese.
[40:11] in control of Taiwan is called the DPP, They don't say this out loud but everybody knows that the DPP has no interest
[40:26] There's one other complicating factor to this too. in which Taiwan might peacefully reunite with China, essentially one country, China,
[40:41] That was the offer that Beijing was making to Taiwan. Well, that was the deal that Beijing made with Hong Kong, and said that's not the offer anymore.
[40:55] and you had a massive protest movement, So that sent a message to the people in Taiwan, So that kinda leaves us where we are here today,
[41:10] he's not gonna let Taiwan go, I think people also see Xi Jinping, he's getting older. of unfinished business unaddressed?
[41:24] that Taiwan is only gonna move further away over time, There are a couple timelines that I would watch here. and people who have testified to this
[41:39] that China's military will be ready for some kind of operation to retake Taiwan around 2027. on their navy, on their air force, on their rocket force,
[41:53] those different military forces be able to work together, in some kind of complex, amphibious invasion I think another thing I look to is in 2028,
[42:08] Now, the last one was won by a DP politician, and more likely to wanna pursue independence. maybe we are seeing the convergence of the perfect storm.
[42:24] well, Donald Trump's not gonna go to war to protect Taiwan. like we're never gonna be able to do this politically,
[42:36] that's when the Chinese military will be ready for this. We've already seen them intimidate, you know, fly planes
[42:49] or encroach upon Taiwan at sea. or China could impose a blockade on Taiwan nothing's coming in or out
[43:04] in terms of how China could do this, that there'll be some kind of Chinese effort to either squeeze or take Taiwan by force
[43:19] Now, in terms of the US coming to Taiwan's aid, First of all, you gotta get the entire United States Navy Pacific Fleet
[43:32] So if the Chinese move quickly, Second, if the United States Navy is going that it's not at risk from Chinese rocket forces.
[43:47] Those rocket forces are usually along the coastline here. against mainland China to have the security Well, if we hit mainland China, any war game I've been in,
[44:02] in places like Okinawa in Japan or Guam Very quickly, this could become a big war, and that, I think, is what weighs on any US president.
[44:16] with China over Taiwan? hey, we're not gonna do anything, I think the most important thing that we can do is try
[44:29] so the cost of a potential invasion goes up to China. like Japan, like Australia, other countries in the region
[44:41] But ultimately, I think we need to have more diplomacy and with the Taiwanese about this. This is an internal issue for them.
[44:56] The Taiwanese don't wanna be seen to be some kind Just one more point on the cost to the global economy. Not only is Taiwan itself like a substantially sized place
[45:12] they make the vast majority like the things you rely on in your car If that essentially goes offline
[45:27] and then the US is imposing sanctions on China we could see an economic disruption that is far greater AbunRoman asks, "What is the pro-China view
[45:42] is this very large body of water along Southern China like Vietnam, the Philippines. China claims the entire body of water,
[45:58] and it is actually, on its face, a totally absurd claim. up against the territory of Vietnam, right? and there's international conventions,
[46:13] China's essentially ignoring all of that and we want kind of freedom of action here. of a Southeast Asian country that has a claim on this
[46:29] about the South China Sea is whoever named it," but it should be a body of water that is kind of divided up A tremendous amount of the world's shipping goes
[46:45] because so many things are made in China or in Malaysia So ultimately, it's not just an issue for those countries,
[46:57] Since the Chinese have gotten much more aggressive they've also started to do things that are pretty ominous, in the middle of the South China Sea,
[47:10] so they're kinda creating kind of a network of almost bases They've harassed fishing vessels of some of these smaller Southeast Asian countries.
[47:25] beyond just the kind of crude this is all ours, is They kind of have a view of the South China Sea that's kinda similar to Putin's view of Ukraine,
[47:39] You guys have bases in Japan that's right next to us. The US Navy conducts operations in the South China Sea. Why do you need to have
[47:55] If we don't kind of extend out a buffer, I think what the most legitimate claims here, though, and the Philippines who've just said, hey,
[48:10] There are courts, there's arbitration processes where we go, and whose rock belongs to who. why does Putin want Ukraine?"
[48:26] and one having to do with history. essentially, Putin's view was the Soviet Union collapses. They lose essentially an empire, right?
[48:40] that the West broke all of its promises. NATO was not supposed to expand beyond its borders According to Putin, that was kind of a commitment,
[48:52] by the then George H.W. Bush administration. Instead, what you got is NATO expanding steadily into former Soviet republics,
[49:05] And then, you have NATO membership action plans, on the waiting list to get into NATO, you have those plans offered to Georgia and Ukraine in 2008.
[49:19] Vladimir Putin invades Georgia and then fast forward six years, Now, the security grievance that Putin has
[49:34] You are expanding your military alliance, NATO, He also had grievances that the United States had pulled that had been negotiated between the United States
[49:48] So there's a security argument that Putin makes and Ukraine, obviously, is somewhat of a buffer, Now, the history argument is deeper and more emotional,
[50:04] and I think ultimately more important to Vladimir Putin. Ukraine and Russia have a long and intermingled history. to a place called Kyiv Rus.
[50:17] used to be the capital of Russia, Now, over the centuries, you've had lots
[50:29] you've had Ukrainian nationalism, so it's a lot more complicated than Putin says. is kind of reestablish not just the Soviet Union.
[50:45] as Putin wants to reestablish the Russian Empire, these Slavic Russian-speaking peoples of the Russian state governed from Moscow.
[51:00] he said he was doing it to protect Russian speakers But I think Putin sees himself and in his view, he is restoring Russian greatness,
[51:17] and Ukraine is kind of central to his belief in what is Russian land. obviously reject that view.
[51:31] [mouse clicking] of the currently ongoing Russia-Ukraine war?" It's proven to be much more difficult,
[51:46] that Vladimir Putin currently believes he has the upper hand Now, the reality is you have essentially this kind of 800-mile front line between Russia and Ukraine,
[52:00] They've been also bombarding the Ukrainians' infrastructure. they can resupply their army, they can restock it whereas Ukrainians are starting to have manpower shortages,
[52:15] in terms of enlistment, Simple math, if you have a bigger country fighting a war Putin believes we have the upper hand.
[52:29] because Ukraine is not getting the same kind and so he also knows that, well, by the Americans, I can just keep grinding and grinding
[52:43] Well, at a minimum, he wants the land that he currently controls to be recognized by the world, That would include the Crimean Peninsula
[52:58] but it also includes this huge chunk that includes areas that Russia currently occupies. And the Russian proposals in these peace negotiations,
[53:12] that Russia doesn't currently occupy Now, the Ukrainians don't wanna do that. to give away their land.
[53:24] They want credible security guarantees. It means that Ukraine is not in NATO. to come to Ukraine's aid if they're invaded again by Russia.
[53:38] is the war stops for a few years, The US has already said that we're not gonna put that So what can reassure them that they can stop this war
[53:53] And you see a lotta countries in Europe trying Will there be some European force that is on Ukrainian soil? to provide arms to the Ukrainians
[54:07] so at least they're in a political club, in the negotiations that are ongoing. and I don't wanna predict exactly when that'll happen,
[54:21] You will have not a formal end of the war, along a line of control in the eastern side of Ukraine,
[54:33] and a de facto Russia control of the land it occupies, these security guarantees for the Ukrainians. It's certainly not the Ukrainians retaking their territory,
[54:46] It would alleviate the suffering in the short term, of will Russia come in again, And that's why there's gonna have to be a lot of work done,
[55:00] to use that time after a ceasefire to give Ukraine so Russia just doesn't come back for more in the future. and EU send troops to Ukraine?"
[55:15] and there is a real fear among the US and European countries that Russia will use nuclear weapons inside of Ukraine,
[55:30] There's a separate question if there is a ceasefire, about whether you'd station US and/or European countries I think this is a much more live option.
[55:44] by the United Kingdom and France, have talked Trump has taken US participation in that off the table, of European troops in Ukraine
[55:59] that security assurance that they so desperately want. is playing Trump?" and look, some of this is just obvious on the surface.
[56:15] and trying to weaken the US support for Ukraine Putin thinks he has the upper hand in the battlefield. he's bombing Ukrainian infrastructure,
[56:29] Putin comes to Alaska for a summit with Trump. Now, what is happening while this is going on,
[56:41] Zelenskyy is getting beat up the US is fighting with our European allies, He's taking more land from the Ukrainians,
[56:55] he's dividing the US from Europe, and meanwhile, he's just pushing away at Ukraine. that's really important that people need to understand here.
[57:10] and there were all these questions in the previous election, what do they want from him, is not Trump to do something for them,
[57:24] They want the rules-based order that used to be run because they felt that that order disadvantaged them. and Europe, that alliance, to fall apart
[57:38] in Europe a lot easier as the big brother to push Russia back. where they have kind of freedom to maneuver.
[57:51] to be utterly discredited. essentially dictatorial control, to be as legitimized as democracy, and that's happening too.
[58:03] who was the Russian opposition leader in a gulag by Vladimir Putin, to Russia to be imprisoned,
[58:17] to convince his people that he is not corrupt He just needs to convince his people There's no difference between Russia and the West,
[58:32] Look at the Americans. who surround that corrupt president. And essentially, Trump is proving to a lot of Russians
[58:47] Now, I don't believe that. as much as I'm critical of Trump, but there's enough overlap here
[59:00] that the strongman system [keyboard keys clicking] @MurtCrypto asks, "So, Trump wants Greenland, Can diplomacy actually get him what he wants,
[59:14] So first of all, why does Trump want Greenland? I could offer you a couple of possibilities. to US national security.
[59:28] It's becoming more important because of climate change, including oil and gas, China and Russia kind of are adjacent
[59:40] but I don't really put any stock in that purpose They're a member of NATO. so I don't really see why it's necessary
[59:55] Second is he may just want the resource bonanza There's critical minerals in Greenland, This is not as easy as it sounds, right?
[01:00:07] but some of this could just be Now, even that, the Danes, so it still doesn't feel like it's necessary.
[01:00:21] and is like, this is a big piece of land, and I want it. And, you know, it's not an insane thing to think. Actually, the territory of the United States
[01:00:35] Alaska is a pretty random piece but that was kind of back in the days of imperial expansion. there's kind of two ways that Trump could do this.
[01:00:49] One that you felt them already try is get some Greenlanders towards the Danes, who've been the controlling power there to say, well, we'd rather be part of the United States
[01:01:06] and then the United States enters There's a lot of examples of this in history. We had to kinda come to the aid of people that wanted us
[01:01:21] It's something that Vladimir Putin has used time and again. of Ukraine was we are coming to support who wanna be part of Russia, not Ukraine.
[01:01:35] The problem is the Greenlanders have been very disciplined We even had, you know, Don Jr. go out to Greenland trying and the Greenlanders, kind of seeing this playbook,
[01:01:50] that we may have some issues with Denmark, Then the other way that Trump has suggested Writing some gigantic check
[01:02:02] and there's only about 50,000 of them. for sale, Denmark's made clear it's not for sale, other than some kind of military force
[01:02:17] you're gonna have to take it. ComfortablePool4684 asks, "What do you believe, or is going to do, will benefit America?"
[01:02:30] some of his critiques are important and useful. that globalization has been very damaging particularly working-class Americans harmed
[01:02:45] It is the case, and I have made the argument myself, in both parties that has been unaccountable, since 9/11 have had terrible outcomes
[01:02:59] in our commitments around the world. So I think the critique is helpful On the other hand, I don't think the answer
[01:03:13] and arbitrary tariffs, right? which is we're bombing more countries than we did before to bigger conflicts or quagmires.
[01:03:28] that Trump is saying we gotta end this way of doing things. to those problems, though, are the right ones. so many immigrants to enter the US?
[01:03:43] B, a philosophical stance that we should let everyone in, to slow it down, D, other?" I'm gonna say it's a combination of all of the above.
[01:03:58] Trump's immigration policies had been very divisive and frankly, the Democratic primary candidates
[01:04:10] on immigration that were much more to the left and so from the get, there's a kind of ideological sense I don't think it was essentially we should let everybody in,
[01:04:25] to have strict border enforcement policies. across the southern border started to just exceed anything and here, I think they were just too slow to deal with this
[01:04:40] The numbers were going up and up and up, to have pretty strict border enforcement, It's also the case, to be fair to the Biden administration,
[01:04:56] The problem is in this country since really like the 1980s. so the system has gotten creaky.
[01:05:09] and especially got on top of him when you had governors and sending them up to Washington, DC or to New York City, which was a bit more of a political stunt.
[01:05:25] and, frankly, effective as a political strategy of absorbing these immigrant populations does fall
[01:05:37] when you start to have tens of thousands up to places like New York City, on local governments in other parts of the United States
[01:05:52] that is spotlighting for people a sense If it's not just affecting, you know, people but it's affecting people all over the country,
[01:06:05] of regional interest or regional issue, Now, while I do think there was a lot of legitimacy that the southern border was too open,
[01:06:21] I also think that the kind of toxic of our politics did not help here. in certain kind of right-wing media ecosystems to elevate
[01:06:38] the potential violent danger posed by immigrants. So you had, you know, these ideas that whole cities by violent undocumented people,
[01:06:52] of what was being said on X But I think more broadly, on the far right, the great replacement theory,
[01:07:08] that essentially, Democratic politicians or globalists of this, Jews have some big conspiracy theory with Brown people who will vote for their interests
[01:07:23] and essentially take away the privileges of white Americans in this country. I think Joe Biden inherited a broken border policy.
[01:07:36] I actually think that some in certainly some of the kind of more sensationalist efforts to say here's this one violent crime committed
[01:07:51] and undoubtedly was a tragedy, All these people coming are violent and dangerous criminals. that led not just to the kinda politics
[01:08:05] it's that mindset that led to the kind where essentially, they're treating all undocumented people But there was even an effort made by Joe Biden to pass
[01:08:20] a pretty strict immigration bill, working with Congress. that we can accept and support it. among Republicans and Democrats in the Senate
[01:08:32] but Trump at that time, he actually signaled to the Republicans I don't want this to be solved [keyboard keys clicking]
[01:08:46] shwarma_heaven, a good name, asks, "Change my view. and the drugs and corruption are just the public pretext."
[01:08:58] because I agree with it. of US military forces around Venezuela, Second, Venezuela was just not a particularly important part
[01:09:15] like not even anywhere near the top venue. When you're talking about fentanyl, Colombia is a much bigger source of cocaine for the cartels,
[01:09:30] as the place to take a stand against drug trafficking. Donald Trump's, let's just say, his concerns about democracy I mean, I don't believe
[01:09:46] when, after he deposed Maduro, abducted Maduro, the democratic opposition in Venezuela. and now we're gonna do some oil deals, essentially.
[01:10:01] and it's about the fact [keyboard keys clicking] in the world. The answer is not Donald Trump or Marco Rubio.
[01:10:15] Other than taking Maduro away and abducting him nothing really changed about the apparatus It's still governed by the communist party there.
[01:10:30] who was the vice president to Maduro, still has its origins So what happens next? Well, Trump's main interests seem to be about oil,
[01:10:44] but the problem with that is Venezuela's oil infrastructure It's not pumping oil out of interest to American oil companies.
[01:10:57] So are we gonna go in and rebuild that oil infrastructure If we do, that's like a multi-year project At the same time, the Venezuelan government,
[01:11:11] in having some transition to democracy. If people like Maria Machado, the Nobel Peace Prize winner, in the country, well, if she wants
[01:11:27] I'm not sure the government's gonna go along with that, So apart from what Trump's done thus far, of barrels of Venezuelan oil and taking some of the profits,
[01:11:41] Otherwise, I think you have a lot of risks. Sometimes, it's purely resource reasons, listen to what Donald Trump said
[01:11:55] And if you look at the kinds of places oftentimes, there's some resource nexus, let's say.
[01:12:07] by Saddam Hussein, or the Iraq War itself, I think people were looking at the potential Sometimes, it's a national security threat.
[01:12:19] After 9/11, for instance, the idea was Al-Qaeda did this, So we went to Afghanistan to get Al-Qaeda, then we had to train security forces
[01:12:33] And so, oftentimes, in history, whether it's Vietnam where what was launched as a war for one purpose became I will say one other thing, though.
[01:12:48] in places that have been affected to me we know what you guys are doing. You want to kind of create chaos around the periphery.
[01:13:01] if there are refugee flows, if they're weak governments, you get to keep your privileged position in the world. of the last, I don't know, several decades
[01:13:18] I never went into a meeting in the White House But I do have to acknowledge, that these interventions that we do,
[01:13:31] You know, is the Middle East better off And I think there's something to the idea of stability in the world, and the United States
[01:13:45] Japan, South Korea, Australia, and makes it harder for those countries to kind of emerge So, even if that may not be the kind of stated reason,
[01:14:00] preserve our own position [keyboard keys clicking] @PolPredictionX asks, "Will there be another Arab Spring? The first Arab Spring in 2011 was a mass popular uprising,
[01:14:17] the sense that in places like Tunisia and Egypt and Syria where you had these protests, If you look at some of the same countries
[01:14:30] from terrible corruption and economic mismanagement, If you look at Jordan, they're suffering from what's happened in Gaza, pressure
[01:14:45] like Iran, I think if you look of mass protest movements is simmering under the surface, that you start to see instability spread.
[01:15:00] And unfortunately, I don't necessarily see I see, once again, power struggles that probably lead more responsive to the people, but might not be.
[01:15:14] when two countries launch cyberattacks on one another? Well, first of all, I think it's really important to note of different cyberattacks that can take place.
[01:15:29] We're stealing secrets from another country, to spy on that country's systems. Increasingly, we see the theft of resources, the theft
[01:15:42] There's sometimes just an effort to burrow inside of a country's networks and we've seen China do a lot of this
[01:15:56] so that if you attack us, you know, we can shut this down. But we've also seen just kinda outright cyber acts of war. when they, you know, go into a Georgia
[01:16:09] The United States, in certain cases, in a place, will have a cyber dimension to it. There are millions and millions of these attacks a day
[01:16:25] certainly across Europe, too, Why aren't cyberattacks an act of war, this is a question a lotta time talking about and debating
[01:16:39] of the cyberattack, right? well, countries have been involved in espionage If I send a spy into your country,
[01:16:52] we don't necessarily go to war against that, even though we don't like it, right? when the cyberattack has a dramatic impact inside a country.
[01:17:08] Could it cause a loss of life, right? A lot of European countries are beginning as Russia gets more aggressive with its cyberattacks,
[01:17:23] Article Five is the declaration on all that requires a response against Russia. with the United States, Russia, and China,
[01:17:36] and North Korea, is there's an ongoing cyber war. Like, we are in a cyber war every day, really every second, And then the question is, when is the outcome
[01:17:51] that it might lead to some other response, And I think this is gonna increasingly be a part as cyber capabilities become ever more important.
[01:18:06] @imthatvalentine asks, "Why does Modi remind me of Trump? and Modi bears a resemblance to Trump to me." I would put Modi in the club
[01:18:19] who have emerged over the last 15, 20 years. Now, what they have in common, right, is they are strongmen. but it has very much been about Modi
[01:18:31] But also, there is this kind of authoritarian playbook where you start to intimidate the media, you start to use social media to demonize your opponents
[01:18:46] you might start to kind of intimidate parts and be a part and finance your politics, If you look at Modi's playbook,
[01:19:00] that can be reminiscent of American politics. in India has been targeted politically in the same way that, in the US,
[01:19:12] including Muslim minorities here in the United States. There are also, I think, important differences too. I mean, Modi, his nationalism is kind of deeply embedded
[01:19:27] in traditional Indian Hindu nationalism. Like, Modi comes out of that wing of Indian politics of the Congress Party, the secular post-independence party,
[01:19:42] and character to Indian identity. of Modi's whole career and his tenure as a leader.
[01:19:54] Whereas Donald Trump, not a particularly religious guy. I mean, he's not personally a kind of Christian nationalist Another difference is just in the kind of interests
[01:20:08] You know, Trump is a strongman of a superpower abducting the president of Venezuela, You know, Modi's someone who's trying to get along
[01:20:22] Like, he maintains his relationship with Russia, he's building closer ties to the European Union, that kind of looks at the world like a menu and picks
[01:20:39] It's been interesting to me between Trump and Modi during Trump's first term. You saw Modi basically endorse Trump for reelection in 2020
[01:20:52] They both have these kind of conservative personas. Modi was, you know, perfectly fine with that. in the sense that Trump imposed significant tariffs
[01:21:09] One, there was a war between India and Pakistan. where there's a terrorist attack inside of Kashmir, India responds, Pakistan responds,
[01:21:24] and then there's a ceasefire. I think, well beyond any evidence. to the Indians and Pakistanis,
[01:21:37] about to break out, and he ended it. and ended this war because it kinda humiliated Modi. you know, not a greater power than Pakistan,
[01:21:52] The Pakistanis nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. It was not a coincidence to me that these tariffs and sanctions were put in place on India after that episode.
[01:22:06] but Trump was pretty late to be concerned about that. And you have to remember, Modi thinks of India
[01:22:19] They want to be someday the world's largest economy. in the way that the United States has the way the Chinese are doing,
[01:22:33] and they want to be accepted as a power with the United States and China and Russia A Reddit user asks, "What are the geopolitical implications
[01:22:47] So first of all, the obvious point the Arctic is warming, it's melting, and it's opening up new waterways, new shipping lanes.
[01:22:59] in the Arctic has also opened up access So suddenly, you can get at things, oil and gas and then the shipping lanes allow you to transport them out,
[01:23:13] I think another point is the shipping lanes opening up So, for instance, China is already looking and faster way for them to export to places like Europe.
[01:23:30] over the top, you know what I'm talking about. And so China, as a net exporter, an enormous exporter Okay, that's it.
[01:23:45] [gentle upbeat music]