[00:02] the geek and today we're taking a look at i've talked about pretty much throughout throughout the year on my um on my podcast and i promised a specific video
[00:16] breaking down the power of leveraging ownership in dfs where i believe this is the single most important tool in our arsenal for becoming a profitable player and it's probably
[00:31] the one theory let's call it that people get wrong the most so i wanted to sort of show a visualization of how ownership projections work relative to uh player projections and why leveraging
[00:45] ownership is our most powerful tool so i want to get started with a few different examples but essentially all of the examples i'm going to do right now are coin flip so the idea is the baseline
[00:58] presumption is one thousand people enter a contest dollar entry contest one thousand entrance and there are two possible
[01:11] answers yes or no heads or tails all right it's not always going to be a 50 50 proposition but in the case of our first example it will be it's a coin that is weighted equally
[01:24] to be heads or tails right that's the basic assumption and the second thing we're going to provide in this example is an ownership projection so you as a user as an entrant in this
[01:38] tournament you get a choice all right heads or tails without knowing anything else say well what are the odds of each event happening 50 50. it's 50 50 it's going to be heads
[01:50] correct answer well you don't have enough information but if we add in another piece of information projected ownerships or ownerships in the contest and we find out that 60 of the entrants in the contest
[02:04] then we should always choose tails and we will make money doing that you know well how do you do it let's take a look right so in our assumption
[02:20] and half the time it's going to be tails you have to pick one for the entire tent so you pick tails why are we picking tails because we know that the ownership
[02:32] projection for the contest show that heads will be chosen 60 of the time so here are the results for each time that the
[02:46] and we get heads five times the people who picked heads would win back a dollar investment that's because sixty percent of the entrance in the contest chose
[02:58] head so you're not even doubling your money money in the other five spins or or flips when the coin hits tails the forty percent of people that chose tails will
[03:10] get two dollars and fifty cents for each flip the net result will be after ten spins the heads pickers had entered ten dollars into the contest they got back eight dollars and thirty three cents for
[03:23] a net loss of a dollar sixty seven whereas the tails pickers thousand fifty cents less their investment equals two dollars and fifty
[03:37] cents so right here is a really basic example showing why ownership leverage is actually more important than the projection itself because the projections were correct here but because more people chose heads
[03:53] the tails pickers ended up putting money and as a matter of fact even if we add a situation where the the coin flipped two heads one extra time so we got
[04:06] sixty percent of the time the coin flipping to heads all that happens at flipping to heads all that happens at that point is a break even so for the heads pickers because it's 60 of them you really had to have something
[04:19] crazy going on like heads hitting not 50 percent of the time not 60 percent of the time but 70 percent of the time in order to get enough leverage on heads to make up for the fact that these players chose the uh
[04:32] they they put their ownership on the higher owned situation on the higher owned situation okay now because you might be saying well 50 50 proposition
[04:47] the takeaway for dfs from this is if you have two players about the same price with similar projections and one is going to be 30 owned whereas the other one is only going to be 10 percent owned
[05:00] over time in dfs you will make more money by going with the lower owned player even if the higher employer has a slightly higher projection or is slightly more likely to score better it doesn't matter
[05:13] because over time because we're in a tournament setting the profit the more profitable approach is to leverage ownership and i'm going to show you in a more dramatic example up here what i mean because this one
[05:26] really drives it home now in the case of this the coin is weighted and this is much more like a real world scenario it's really really hard to go against this but you really should in this scenario
[05:39] but you really should in this scenario the coin is weighted 70 heads 30 tails so this is a specialty coin where and and the field knows it they they're aware that we are dealing with a coin flip contest
[05:53] and this coin is weighted to hit heads seventy percent of the time entails only thirty percent of the time okay so you're going into this contest
[06:05] you know this same scenario as before a thousand people entering a dollar each in this contest in the pool the losers nothing
[06:20] for each flip so check this out it's 70 of the time it's gonna hit heads right all right let me pick heads well ninety percent so in our assumption here ninety 90 of the entrance in the contest
[06:34] pick heads because it's obvious that more often than not it's going to fall on heads so it's hard to do the opposite no i'm taking heads i know it i'm smart i'm taking hits right 90 of the entrance into the contest also pickheads because
[06:48] it's so obviously going to be the right play right it's the right play it's 70 percent more likely to hit heads but let's play this out in real time so in the case of
[07:00] this scenario the coin flip works exactly as weighted seven out of the ten spins are heads with only three hitting it tails for the heads pickers ninety percent of the field picks heads
[07:15] when they win they only get a dollar 11 back so 1.11 back
[07:27] their total net for this contest is minus 22 cents so essentially they lost money they were right and they lost money anyway because so much ownership was on heads that when it did choose heads they didn't make much
[07:41] because everybody's sharing in the pot but when it fell on tails the tails pickers really feasted and and take a look at this so in that same scenario the ten percent of people that chose tails when it did
[07:55] finally fall on tails they made ten dollars right for each spin so for the three occasions where it fell on tails they made 10 20 30 less their investment 10 so the tails pickers in this scenario
[08:08] they were only right three times out of ten the heads pickers were are down 2.22 cents and they were right seven times out of ten and wait let me show you even out of ten and wait let me show you even more dramatic
[08:25] we know we know going into the contest that the coin was weighted 70 percent to fall on heads and 30 to fall and tails but when reality struck we actually got
[08:39] eight rolls of heads and only two of tails probably two we still had ninety percent of the field picking heads because hey they were
[08:51] massively favored to have the coin fall on them of course you should choose heads right or maybe not so how did it play out the hedge pickers win
[09:03] eight times out of ten but because so much of the field also piled on heads they didn't make any money there was no point right eight times out of ten even beating the odds
[09:22] after ten spins because on the two times when it came two tails they made zero that was enough to give back all the profit from the eight times it fell on heads on the flip side again tails pickers
[09:38] zero zero zero zero zero zero but when they finally do win the only two spins only two spins uh or it spins i keep saying spins only two flips of the coin hit tails but each time they made 10 bucks
[09:51] the first time they made all the money back from all the entries and the second time was ten dollars in pure profit so what does this illustrate well it shows that even when the player is in a good position
[10:05] and then and we can we're going to take it out to dfs hey they look like the in a great spot tonight they're going to smash if a player is going to be 80 or 90 owned you borderline cannot make money
[10:19] now of course dfs contests are not a zero sum game and that's just one player single contest and whatnot but
[10:32] is leveraging ownership when you know what things we do at dfs army is we project ownerships for just about every single contest the takeaway is you must use the
[10:46] ownerships when crafting your dfs lineups because ownership leverage itself is just as important or more important than the projection itself so hopefully this helps you kind of change your game a
[11:00] reinforces some things that you already thought but understanding the power of leveraging ownership is one of the keys to being a profitable daily fantasy sports player and this game theory
[11:12] really translates across a lot of different contests and competitions so keep it in mind you know experiment with it all you want but make sure that you are applying this knowledge in your dfs game um that's all
[11:26] i got for today guys good luck and we'll see you next time of course if on in we've got a chat we're talking strategy we're breaking everything down optimizer projections everything you need go check it out at dfsarmy.com
[11:39] see you next time with more strategy content