---
title: 'The ONE Betting Strategy That Actually Works'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=MWD59aG-cZo'
video_id: 'MWD59aG-cZo'
date: 2026-07-06
duration_sec: 0
---

# The ONE Betting Strategy That Actually Works

> Source: [The ONE Betting Strategy That Actually Works](https://youtube.com/watch?v=MWD59aG-cZo)

## Summary

This video reveals the only betting strategy that works long-term: betting on prices that are larger than they should be. The presenter explains five places where value odds consistently appear and why, emphasizing that understanding the core concept is more important than individual examples.

### Key Points

- **The Only Betting Strategy That Works** [00:01] — Betting on prices that are bigger than they should be is the only long-term winning strategy. Professional gamblers like Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham have made hundreds of millions using this approach.
- **Example of Value Betting** [01:06] — If a team wins 3 out of 12 matches, at 2/1 you lose money, at 3/1 you break even, at 4/1 you profit. Same results, different price – the key is getting a price higher than the true probability.
- **Hotspot 1: Early Pricing** [02:14] — Bookmakers make rougher estimates early, especially in horse racing the evening before. Example: Bryony Wells priced at 6/1 evening before, then 3/1 by 11am next day – a clear value opportunity.
- **Hotspot 2: Smaller Leagues and Events** [03:39] — Lower league football, women's football, youth football, and smaller horse racing meetings get less attention, leading to more pricing errors. Look where the attention isn't.
- **Hotspot 3: Niche Sports** [05:13] — Sports like greyhounds, darts, snooker, lower tier tennis have less efficient markets. If you have specialist knowledge, you can exploit mispricing.
- **Hotspot 4: Public Bias** [06:21] — Recreational bettors create price distortions by overreacting to upsets, recent results, and media hype. In-play betting after a surprise goal or at half-time often offers inflated prices on favorites.
- **Hotspot 5: Information Changes** [10:30] — New information like team news, injuries, weather changes prices. The opportunity is when the market hasn't fully adjusted yet. Example: Haaland unexpectedly rested – odds move significantly within minutes.
- **Hotspot 6: Fast-Moving Markets** [13:39] — Price movements without new information, especially in greyhound racing and horse racing in the last minutes before a race. Late money from sharp bettors and bookmaker hedging create value.
- **Hotspot 7: Poorly Monitored Markets** [18:36] — Less important events (e.g., all-weather horse racing on a Monday night) have fewer eyes, so incorrect pricing survives longer. Bookmakers focus on high-revenue events like the Premier League.

### Conclusion

The only sustainable betting strategy is to find and bet on prices that are higher than the true probability. By focusing on areas where bookmakers are less efficient or where public bias distorts prices, you can consistently find value.

## Transcript

betting is about gambling, but it isn't. After more than a decade in this industry, I've become convinced there's only one betting strategy that actually works long-term. So, in this video, I'll show you exactly what it is, five places
that it can be used again and again across multiple sports, real examples that prove it works, and a shortcut that uncovers opportunities in minutes. But first, before I show you where these opportunities appear, I need to explain
understand. Not because it's complicated, but because it's the foundation behind everything else that follows. I could just show you a couple of examples and tell you what to back, but understanding why this works is far
more useful. You see, markets move, prices change, and opportunities disappear. But once you understand the core concept, you're able to spot these opportunities for yourself. So, smash the subscribe button if that sounds good
to you. Now, this strategy doesn't mean that every bet wins. Many won't, but it doesn't matter. To explain, if you imagine that I have an opportunity to back a football team on their next 12 appearances all at the same price. They
win just three of those [snorts] 12 matches. Now, if the price was two to one, I would actually lose money overall. If the price was three to one, I'd break even. And if the price was four to one, I would win money overall.
Same team, same results, but a different price. So, the underlying logic here is clear. Only one betting strategy truly works. Betting on prices that are bigger than they should be. In fact, this is exactly how professional gamblers like
Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham have made hundreds of millions. It's simple to grasp. The real challenge is finding the right prices. So now, let me show you these five places where value odds appear again and again, and more
importantly, explain why that is. Most people never spot it. So, I want to kick my first hotspot on the list because it's very simple and everyone can understand. Now, there's an example here on Oddschecker, which I'll come back to
in a moment, but bookmakers are usually very good at what they do. With the exception being that they have to price thousands of different markets every single day of the week. So, it's inevitable that mistakes will follow.
these mistakes occur so that we can get a larger price than something is it down into a few different areas and I'm going to show you some examples. So, let's kick off with the first point, which is early pricing. Now, opening
football lines is a place where we could do this potentially, but maybe one of the easiest and most recognizable is via horse racing the evening before. If you take a look at this example on the screen, we've got Bryony Wells that's
priced at 6 to 1 the evening before. Now, there's less information available and less money has been bet, so the bookmakers are doing their roughest work, so to speak. If we fast forward to 11:00 a.m. the next morning, you'll see
that Bryony Wells, that same runner, is now priced at 3 to 1, half of the price that it was originally valued. So, that would have clearly been a high value bet for our betting strategy. Now, you can do this on ante-post markets far into
the future, but I should warn you that they have the worst possible margins on with the bookmakers. Now, this is why bookmakers absolutely hate people betting on horse racing to bigger stakes the evening before. Now, I should also
mention that Bryony Wells went on to win that race at a shorter price of 11 to 4. But, the key takeaway is their roughest work is early and that is one of the earliest places that we can exploit them for a value price. Now, the second place
that I want to mention here is smaller leagues and events. Lower league football, women's football, youth football, the price highlighted on Oddschecker shows a great example here on the screen. Because there's one clear
standout there from Bet Victor at a price of 8.0. So, these are the places where I'd like to look earlier on to identify value bets that can be a higher price than they should be. And I'm asking myself, why is the price
different? What am I missing from this situation? And it warrants further investigation. Similarly, you can think of smaller horse racing meetings, stuff on the all weather, where there's less turnover and less resources on the
bookmaker's part to ensure that prices are accurate and problem free. The Premier League is on the other end of that spectrum because typically it gets a lot more of attention. There's more televised stuff, whereas the smaller
stuff just doesn't. The bookmakers focus their attention where the money is and the attention is. So, this is an opportunity for us in busy periods such football on or the Cheltenham Festival,
major sporting events, stuff like that. So, we can focus on other places where there's incorrect pricing that could be exploited for our own personal value. So, the key takeaway here to this particular hotspot is to look where the
attention isn't. For example, betting on the all weather at Wolverhampton whilst shortcut in a moment on how you can do some of this. But the third place that I want to mention here is via niche sports. It is very similar, same
different place. So, especially if you have specialist knowledge on a particular sport or section of a sport, and it's a low priority to the bookies. For example, greyhounds, darts, snooker, lower tier tennis, where there's less
expertise, the market is less efficient, and they're more likely to have made a mistake with their pricing. It's the same reason, but in a different place. Now, I don't want you to get predictions confused with pricing here because I'm
to predict the future. Remember, our one strategy is to get more value from a bet than it's truly worth. So, practical takeaway for this particular section is to look for those outliers on places
like Oddschecker, see why is the price so different. Obviously, we don't want error. Compare bookmaker pricing, compare it to the exchanges if there's liquidity and it's available, and make sure you focus on the biggest prices and
give those the most investigation before you look at potentially backing them. Now, I want to be honest here. This is obviously useful, but these prices can be hard to find. They're a little bit sporadic, a little bit inconsistent. So,
down below that will help you do that. But now, I want to move on to the second hotspot because it's created by bettors and you guys instead of the actual bookmakers. Now, historically, this section is my specialist area. It's what
I've focused on as a Betfair trader that led to them promoting me nationally and various other stuff. So, combined with the third hotspot that I'm going to one of the biggest on my list because it's made me hundreds of thousands of
pounds in doing it. If we look at this example on the screen here, you can see historically this betting market's pricing illustrates what I'm trying to highlight perfectly. We can get a bigger price than something is truly worth. So,
we're going to see this a lot over the World Cup, particularly in the earlier stages, and it's created by the bettors themselves, not the bookmakers. So, what is actually happening here? Well, the price is changing due to betting
activity within the market. It's simply supply and demand. But, with the betting public's impulses and bias at work for us, allowing us to get that more enhanced price. It's one of the most common reasons prices drift away from
their true probability. It means that we can use our one betting strategy and get a better price than something should be. So, I can hear you asking, "Where can we regularly get these opportunities come? Well, my top tip is to get inside the
average bear's head. The bias is driven by human behavior and recreational bettors love betting on teams that they know and support, especially in situations where there's been a little bit of an upset. Think Liverpool,
Arsenal, Manchester United, England, those type stuff where there's lots of courage and lots of sentiment in the market. It creates these overreactions and price inflation at certain points. Additionally, the public tend to react
impulsively to surprise situations. In-play betting prices are particularly good for this. Think about half-time for overreactions or after there's been a surprise goal, particularly if the underdog scores. Think if the underdog
is 1-0 ahead at the end of the first half, what typically happens? Everybody backs the favorite at half-time expecting them to come out um fully refreshed and bring the game back under control. So, the money often flows
towards the popular side, particularly when there's TV hype um at these different points. Now, media hype at these different tournaments can be a really big deal because it means you can get a far bigger price than what
something typically would have been um because the casual money is just flowing because the casual money is just flowing in on that one side. Popularity and betting volumes are not the same thing. So, similar to the first hotspot, the
key question is is the price right, not who's going to win. Remember, our one bigger than the price should actually be. Now, also, a second bias amongst
this group of people is recent results bias, which is something you see across all different sports. People often place too much value and weight on recent results. It's a very human thing to do. If a team has won five in a row or if a
team's lost five in a row, if a horse has won impressively the last time it run, it becomes a talking point and people are either too optimistic or too pessimistic. And that shows inside the pricing data, and so you can get those
larger prices. Recent form obviously matters, but people overestimate the importance of that particular form. The result ends up being an artificially inflated price, one that's worth taking potentially on our part. So, ask
yourself, has the public opinion distorted the price here? Has everybody become too confident, too fearful, or too emotional about the situation? Because if they have, our 1 betting strategy becomes very useful very
quickly. Now, public bias is just one way that prices become distorted, but sometimes the market isn't reacting to emotion at all. Sometimes it's just reacting to brand new information, which takes me onto my third hotspot where you
can find some of these great prices. Now, as the saying goes, where there's change, there's opportunity. So, for our 1 betting strategy, this is no different. Betting prices are based on available information and probability.
So, if information changes, the price changes inevitably. But, prices don't change everywhere instantly. And this is why I've made so much money from this particular edge, because this repeatedly creates situations where the pricing is
wrong. Think about football, think about team news. Round about an hour before the start, some of the most obvious examples like this, key striker that's injured or just a star player that's missing from the lineup that the wider
public expected. That last announcement for the team entirely changes the market sometimes, and it shows inside the pricing data on stuff here like Betfair Exchange. But, the interesting part isn't the news itself. It's whether the
market is fully adjusted yet or not. For example, if someone like Haaland is unexpectedly rested, odds move significantly often within a few minutes
even have to be on the first part of that move. You can still get value price a few minutes afterwards, but it's a huge chance to get a better price than something's truly worth and therefore use our one betting strategy which quite
clearly works. Another place is injuries, late withdrawals, similar principle, but obviously less often and less obvious. And again, in-play betting offers some of the greatest opportunities because so many
things change so fast. In fact, in-play changes often lead to price changes on later competitions whilst they're happening. Think about that during the World Cup. When a match is in-play, is it affecting the price of something
that's happening the following week? It's a prime opportunity for finding incorrectly priced bets. The list of potential items that change the price is long. Weather changes, you know, if you think to horse racing, you've got ground
types. If you think about tactical changes, formation, star players, but the context matters. Not all information is useful. Higher quality and widely broadcast information moves the price most, particularly when it's around
those key people, key teams, key situations. For example, the news of injury on a star player during pre-match coverage on a mainstream channel has way more weight and impact than a pundit just tweeting their opinion far before.
So, get this right. It's important to ask yourself, how impactful is this new information that's come to the market? How many people are being exposed to this information right now and how many are going to expose shortly afterwards?
And has the market already moved significantly? Is there still value left can get that bigger price than something's truly worth. Again, shortcut, coming for that in a bit. Building habits around the team news,
injury reports, and weather is a good idea. Information changes create lucrative opportunity, but they're not alone because the next hot spot that I'm about to share exposes a pricing change that doesn't require information at all.
This is hot spot number four. So, sometimes there's no new information at all. There's no injury, no team news, no bookmakers mistakes, um but there's bookmakers mistakes, um but there's still a hot spot due to structure and
timing and the way things function. Now, as a pro exchange trader, over the years this has probably been maybe my second biggest thing that's allowed me to make a lot of money. And a good example of this would be one of the previous videos
I uploaded to the channel where I made, I think it was about 7,000 pounds on an link to that in the description down below. But, we just have to listen to the market to use this advantage. Now, if I go to the greyhound racing example,
see that the price has changed dramatically in the last 2 to 3 minutes. greyhounds because the liquidity comes so late because the television coverage
every single day. If we look at the chart on the Betfair screen for the price history for Beachwood Kate, you can see that the price has come in around about a whole point in that last minute or two, and money has been
matched on that in terms of betting volumes. So, if you want additional clarity on this, just watch a few of the charts and the price history on the greyhounds races over on Betfair's exchange because a little better money
can change everything all at once. The late money that comes is usually sharper than elsewhere. Bookmakers even hedge their liability and they're dumping that which makes it such a great place to look. But, the prices collapse
frequently. That's the point I want to make here, which means that it's far easier to get a far bigger price than something it's truly worth and catch that as it's moving. So, if we compare the exchange prices to say Bet365,
they're also often lagging, which means that you can get a bigger price on the you doing this. They could restrict your account over time, but quite frankly, I'm not worried about that. I just want to make money. So, it's very possible to
get a far bigger price than it should be using our one betting strategy that actually works. And also, if you take a look at this example, you'll see that the race, which is something that happens frequently on the greyhounds.
But, the key lesson here is fast markets often reveal where the money is flowing. what's going on, and that's what happens on that greyhound example there. But, than anything else because it's actual money. It's where people are putting
the wisdom of the crowd is usually quite influential if you've heard about that. So, another example would be on horse racing. Here's one on the screen here. You can see quite clearly in those last 5 minutes before the start of the race,
there's been a flow of money pushing a price in, um and it's gone all the way from around about 12s into 8.0 there on the chart. It's a similar principle, but
slightly different with more betting volume and a slightly larger window for about this is there's a little bit more noise in the market in terms of betting make it a little bit more advanced for people. However, it is possible to get
is something that historically I've obviously Betfair have promoted me for doing that. I'm not saying that absolutely everybody can, but the premise is the same. One simple betting
strategy, bigger prices, and then if you want to hedge afterwards, you can. Moving on to football, if we think about football, the movement is typically slower. Um the hour before kick-off, in-play betting are the exceptions, but
football typically, especially on the larger events. Just take a look at this chart. Some heavy bets have moved the market before it starts. So, the key points, change means opportunity. Sometimes it's structured change that
changes things rather than actual new information. Price movement often deserves further investigation, much like those outlier prices that we've seen earlier on. Notice how I'm basing my betting activity around pricing and
value and not trying to predict the future. So, the market information is the best information itself. Professional bettors don't always need to know why the price is moving to identify value. They just need to know
and it's nothing to do with predictions. The practical things to do here is watch football prices an hour before kickoff horse racing prices in the last 5 minutes, 10 minutes before the post
market, but you'll see it there also. And watch the greyhound prices particularly in the last 2 to 3 minutes because it becomes very obvious once you've watched, you know, a fair sample of races. You don't need every single
answer. You just need to pay attention and get an enhanced price on one or two of those bets where you feel very confident and then you're getting that some shortcuts, but again, I'm going to get to them in just a second. So,
fast-moving prices are useful, but there's an even easier hotspot that we can focus on here that doesn't require watching markets all day long like I would. This exists because nobody is paying attention. It's hotspot number
five, poorly monitored markets. Because this is down to one of the simplest reasons that value exists in the first place, efficiency. Fewer eyes means more mistakes and less attention means less effective pricing. So, limited attention
means incorrect pricing survives a lot longer and therefore we can get that value that I keep talking about. Now, sometimes you might find with the larger brands like Bet365, William Hill, or Betfair Sportsbook, they don't
situations because they're so focused elsewhere and that's where the money is. So, bookmakers prioritize revenue. So, get inside their head. Think about it. Bookmakers allocate resources based on their potential commercial gain. And why
wouldn't they? The Premier League gets huge attention. Champions League, huge attention, although a little bit trickier, especially in the early stages. And smaller, less important leagues don't. And the same goes for
horse racing and even greyhounds. So, Cheltenham gets attention with all its superstars, but some small all-weather fixture on a Monday night gets very little. And this is why some of the most celebrated tipsters focus on
all-weather. Think about Hugh Taylor's column, for example. He always focuses on all-weather horse racing because he knows that that's where he can pick off some value prices. My point here is the more important the event is commercially
to a betting brand, the harder it is to find value. So, just look in those other places. Less betting volume, less media coverage, less bookmaker attention. It means more chance to get a bigger price than something is truly worth. And this
applies to every single sports betting category. So, ask yourself this when you're going to find yourself a high-quality bet. Where is the attention high-quality bet. Where is the attention lowest? Where is the pricing hardest for
the bookmaker? And where do they care? And where are fewer people looking? These are the places to look for an over-priced bet repeatedly. Putting them all together gives you some really good opportunities. Now, the shortcut that I
noticed that there's a problem here. Bookmaker mistakes, public bias, information changes, fast-moving prices, the whole lot. These opportunities exist and they exist repeatedly, but the challenge is finding them consistently
bit of a moving target. It's harder for me to give you arbitrary answers to this for this reason. So, how do you find them very quickly without spending hours of searching? And that is where the shortcut comes in this next video here
in the end screen. I'd rather explain and show you in that video than try to tell you here. So, check it out. Thanks for watching. Don't forget to subscribe.