[00:03] breaking news from Blackstone about Anthropic. And as if it wasn't already bad enough, the stock market opened with Intel down 25%. [00:15] Intel down 25%. At the time of this, Intel is now down 31%. And right here where my mouse is, right there at about 12:45, the NASDAQ 100 went from 692 to peace [00:32] down another six points on the triple down another six points on the triple Q's. Now down over 4% because of news Q's. Now down over 4% because of news out of Anthropic and it is just bad news [00:44] talk anthropic. We're going to look at some of the anthropic numbers. Are the anthropic numbers as bad as they seem? Is this a run from anthropic? It's over. The AI bubbles cooked. Well, stock market to tell you was say, "Hell yeah, [00:57] it's over." Consumer and internet software got hit even harder than chips. Reddit down negative 20%, Roblox 17%, Twilio 17%, Marll's down 11% on this [01:10] idea that it's going to acquire Lumenum and this mega deal on an all stock transaction. But you'd think Lumenum would be doing well on that. Momentum's down 9% at 834. When this deal first got announced, it literally shot up in the [01:27] announced, it literally shot up in the pre-market to something like 10,000 or pre-market to something like 10,000 or 1,84 bucks. Yeah, here it is. $1,77. $1,077 when this deal was announced. It is now [01:39] trading for $835. That is a decline of 22.5% since the deal was announced. on the stock that is not getting diluted. stock that is not getting diluted. This is crazy. Fear gauges are flashing. [01:55] The volatility index is freaking out on the 5minute. It's finally finally peaked out. But you can see we've now intraday had the highest Dow Jones volatility had the highest Dow Jones volatility since basically April when we had the [02:09] volatility of of uh uh the war all throughout March over here. here and then all of a sudden we get a deal and that volatility comes down. That downtrend that's the highest volatility we've seen now in what 6 months. Goldman [02:23] Sachs has a panic index and it indicates that panic index numbers have jumped that panic index numbers have jumped from 4.63 to 7.94 which is the first time it has triggered panic level since late July which is [02:38] when Leopold got liquidated. And there are now rumors circulating that potentially, and these are just unconfirmed rumors, four to five institutional funds have gotten liquidated today. [02:52] This is wild. Goldman Sachs risk appetite indicator also hit.5, which is appetite indicator also hit.5, which is the lowest level that we have seen since liberation day. Think about that. Goldman Sachs risk appetite is at the [03:06] Goldman Sachs risk appetite is at the lowest level since we got liberated. Baby, you know what I think about that? Little piggy, little piggy, let me in. [03:20] And you can get in. And we got a coupon code expiring today at reinvest one.com. for the company. We'd love for you to join us, but it's a ton of existing course members who are upgrading. But less about that. We really need to talk [03:33] about what's going on with Anthropic and why that just gave the stock market a heart attack. And you can see the beautiful revisions that I made myself uh over at reinvest one.com including this new little section we added here, [03:47] the low lowest price guarantee we added. And so in other words, join sooner and you guarantee the best price. And I added that we had 58,000 added that we had 58,000 paying members since 2018 and 11,000 of [04:01] y'all own multiple products, which in my opinion is a a really good testament to that's coming out later this year. Join us at reinvest one.com. Now, four of the seven mag seven are in a bare market. The NASDAQ 100 just entered into [04:16] correction down 10%. We literally have SAM sites sitting I know we have SAM sites sitting outside of Mara Lago now because there's so much fear the [04:28] Iranians are coming for Donald Trump's home now and Ukraine has now started striking Russian oil refineries allegedly in response to Russian attacks ending Melania Trump's short-lived ceasefire. The IRS email system is also [04:43] now being weaponized for politics so that they can brag about Donald Trump that they can brag about Donald Trump tax cuts. All this while the market is on a selling spree and you have charts of degrossing activity. Freaking out. [04:59] of degrossing activity. Freaking out. Degrossing selling activity uh is one way to sort of measure some of the pain that's going on in the market. Uh I'll pull up the chart here uh in just a moment. I thought I'd be able to have it [05:11] up for us, but it is taking me. Oh, there we go. Okay, here is the degrossing chart. Take a look at this. Equity long and short activity degrossing events per Morgan Stanley's Prime Brokerage. This is the largest [05:25] amount of degrossing that we have seen going all the way back well, frankly, to the start of when this damn chart began. This chart began January 2016 and we [05:38] This chart began January 2016 and we have never seen more of a selling spree. >> Man, that was well timed. Uh anyway, so this is problematic and [05:50] again I think it's accelerated by what we're seeing with this synthropic news. But Wells Fargo also reported $1 billion of mostly NASDAQ 100 selling occurred through Thursday. Today's Friday. It's blood bath Friday. I mean, I'm [06:06] blood bath Friday. I mean, I'm basically, you know, trying to egg or basically, you know, trying to egg or taco Donald Trump into striking a deal because if you follow me on X at Realme Kevin, you already know that I wrote, [06:19] "Today would be a great day for tacos." Just saying. I was a little hungry and then Lauren brought me grilled cheese. Shout out to Lauren. Commodity Trading uh Association sellers have cut their equity length down 67%. [06:36] In just the last one month, they literally went from $125 billion long to $43 billion long. Now, that right there, that money, that's money that usually flows right back into the stock market really freaking fast when you get a good [06:51] catalyst. Now, could you potentially get a good catalyst? I don't know. The a good catalyst? I don't know. The Pakistanis are optimistic, but um I don't know that that helps soothe the pain that's happening right now at all. [07:05] Right now, Goldman Sachs says that short sales are exceeding long purchases on a sales are exceeding long purchases on a ratio of five to one. So, people are literally going short five times as much as they are going long right now. Short [07:19] leverage sits at the 99th percentile of the last five years. This is literally the last five years. This is literally setting up for the greatest, most epic rally up. But then of course we have bad news with Anthropic that I am still [07:34] teasing and still need to get to. Don't worry, we will get to it. We just need to cover some of the background data so you can see how extreme this is. non- dealers are selling $70 billion in S&P 500 futures, which just so you know is [07:49] 500 futures, which just so you know is the largest unwind that we have seen in the largest unwind that we have seen in 15 years. Shout out to Dakota Lars, uh, you have not upgraded to the Reinvest terminal yet, email us at staffreinvest [08:05] one.com. We can upgrade you. We look up that you're a member. We upgrade you so that way you could lock in that lifetime access. Reason we're doing that is once we get into, you know, January, we're not doing lifetime access anymore. [08:17] You're going to ARR and that is good for the startup, baby. Reinvest. Also, the to see it and they're going to pay more for seeing it. But anyway, uh this is really broad-based shorting by hedge funds and some of it is due to probably [08:33] the rumorings that have been coming about these anthropic problems. And so, this is where we get into the anthropic problems. The Financial Times dropped at know, things were falling off a cliff on the NASDAQ. Uh, it was revealed by the [08:51] Financial Times that Anthropic is probably not going to get an investment grade credit rating. And a lot of people wonder why is that fair when SpaceX got [09:03] an investment grade credit rating from all three of the major credit rating agencies. Now, maybe it has to do with the fact that they're not only AI dependent, that they also have a rocket ship business and Starlink, but [09:18] nonetheless, people are pissed. And so, the second this story dropped, the market tanked even harder. And so, we got to do some financials for Anthropic. Anthropic may not secure investment grade rating after IPO, Blackstone tells [09:33] investors. Well, that's not good. Thanks, Blackstone. Way to ruin what otherwise would be a good day here. Uh, we just got two more upgrades. 12:28. It's 12:29 over here. Okay, so within the last minute, we just got Amen and [09:48] Jacob, shout out to you. Thank you so much for upgrading as existing members to reinvest a one terminal. Okay, so what is this news here? Anthropic, a reversal from its previous guidance that would complicate the AI lab's ability to [10:04] finance its massive spending. The private capital giant Blackstone told investors in Anthropic's latest $63 billion financing deal that the startup is exceeded to receive a high junk rating from the [10:19] to receive a high junk rating from the major rating agencies after its IPO. Let major rating agencies after its IPO. Let that sink in for a moment. lot of suckening. Except that suckening is going to cost you more money now. The [10:34] cost of getting sucked just went up. Inflation everywhere. Yeah. Look, here's basically how this works. So, the rating agencies, they look at your risk and they look at the sustainability of your revenue and they try to put a stamp on [10:50] your bonds or your debt to say how much is your word worth. is your word worth. The whole purpose of that is pricing. When you pick up the phone as a salesperson, which these days I guess [11:05] looks something like this giant iPhone duo call here. Hey, you want to buy some bonds? You're a JP Morgan whatever me private bank client. We [11:19] could get you in. We could interest you in these 7% bonds. You'll make 7%. Uh and we'll sell them to you at a 10% discount. So you'll make 7.7% investing [11:31] in data centers, you know, and then they try to get the boomers and the pension funds or whatever to go for these data center deals and finance it. And all the bankers do this across the whole nation. And generally the first question that [11:44] comes up from the older times, which is fine and totally reasonable, is oh what kind of credit rating these things got. Credit's a big deal. Boomers usually Nothing wrong with being boomer. I'm just saying it's respectable. Boomers [11:58] care about their credit, so they also care about the credit for companies. So when these rating agencies say something's AAA, take my money. When they go, h it's investment grade, but it's a startup. Oh, that's pretty good. [12:11] know, at the higher end. Now, if it's it's technically junk, uh, you're going to lose a lot of your buyers. You lose buyers, financing costs go up. The whole pain trade this week [12:26] has been talking about financing costs going up for these companies. It's why credit default swaps uh have been going crazy because people are looking at crazy because people are looking at CDS's as insurance against the cost of [12:39] capital going up. Shout out to Andrew who literally just upgraded at 1231. Also, it seems like there's a one minute lag between when I get the update. Anyway, Blackstone uh is acting as an anchor to the deal known as Project [12:51] anthropic file to go public. They expect to spend more than $800 billion in the they're going to spend $800 billion in the next like two or three years. So, I they're going to spend that over the next 20 years when Elon Musk is probably [13:07] going to spend about a trillion dollars. But, he also has to raise that money. So, if you think about it, SpaceX with an investment grade credit rating and Enthropic without an investment grade credit rating, with a junk, now it's the [13:19] high end of junk, but it's still junk. With a junk credit rating, Enthropic just got an L. SpaceX and Gro just got a W. Mhm. SpaceX basically is walking >> Big PP. >> And uh Anthropic, [13:34] >> big L. >> Now, Anthropic expects to raise hundred already got over hundred billion dollars on their balance sheet, which is good. They actually don't have that many bills to pay. Their balance sheet looks good. [13:47] It's just the amount of commitments they have are pretty freaking huge. And so would have been clutch for anthropic. But major rating agencies are saying, happen." Now, I personally think that's actually a good thing. This, by the way, [14:01] is a package deal where Broadcom is backing with their investment grade credit rating $42 billion of this. And Anthropic is backing the $18 billion of junior debt. And that is going to essentially get the junk rating, which [14:15] harder to sell that. Rates are going to be higher, but again, it's a W for be higher, but again, it's a W for SpaceX. The problem overall is that the market thinks if spending gets harder for these companies, then less money is [14:28] going to go to chip companies and everything's going to slow down. Now, so deep into the others because I want to talk about anthropic. Some of the issues in markets are frankly very idiosyncratic. So, what you have at [14:41] Intel is you have a stock that got pumped up by Donald Trump that had very low retail exposure, all of a sudden became a retail favorite. Donald Trump loves it. And then what happens? Well, surprise, surprise. It's really hard to [14:56] surprise, surprise. It's really hard to perform when your core business shrinks because PCs are way more expensive to buy and you end up having a bomb go off costing you $300 billion worth of forecast, sorry, $300 million worth of [15:10] forecast revenue and production. That's a problem in the time of a chip shortage. So, Intel has this sort of idiosyncratic problem. Amazon's actually people just have this mindset that oh well, you know, if they are going to [15:23] spend more on AI chips, sure that's more AI revenue, but but man, where are they going to get the money? Because Amazon's going to raise money as well. This morning in our uh course member live stream, we actually opened a bullish [15:35] option position on Amazon. Full disclosure, I have exposure to Amazon position on Amazon and we did that in part because we measured where its historic volatility was and you know what sort of opportunity there was to [15:50] pick up some dough and uh so we did that over here somewhere around here and uh stock as the market opens. So we're really excited about that. You can [16:02] course member live stream or the trade alert that went out. That's in addition to the broader dip by that we did. But what's my take? Why did I just say we did a broader dip by with all this sucking going on? And isn't this all bad [16:17] sucking going on? And isn't this all bad news for Anthropic? Well, let's go statements for Anthropic. And let's try to look at this from a level-headed perspective, and I want to be crystal clear here. We have way more, and it's [16:30] always going to be this way, substantially more real estate exposure than we do to stocks. So, like if anything, we don't really care if stocks go on sale because we'll just go buy more. So, when I argue that I am now a [16:45] nine out of 10 on the bareb scale, it's because I actually think fundamentally portfolio talking, it's because I think fundamentally on the data, I kind of stuff's about to skyrocket. Shout out to Peter, by the way. Peter just joined [16:58] 1234. That's an existing course member who just upgraded. Uh, thank you, Peter, for for upgrading. So, what do the financials tell us for Anthropic? financials tell us for Anthropic? Honestly, they're not as bad as a lot of [17:13] people are making it out to be on X. X is, you know, X sort of feeds off negativity. You just have to be careful about that. So, you could follow a positive person like me, not jaded at all. So, what do we have [17:27] not jaded at all. So, what do we have here? We've got uh 112 bill uh $112 million of cash. I've got um sorry uh billion. This is billion. Uh [17:39] so we've got $112 billion of cash plus $19 billion of short-term investments. That puts us at $131 billion of cash plus about $6 billion in receivables. If I look at their current liabilities, their current [17:54] literally wash out their current liabilities and their accounts receivable. Boom. You have no bills to pay. deferreds over here. So you can see accounts receivable 5.8, accounts [18:07] payable 5.4. Okay, we got that covered. The convertibles highly likely to convert to equity. So that's stock dilution, not a balance sheet hit. Fine. So the balance sheet's actually very clean here. They've got a good amount of [18:21] free cash, $131 billion. If they come in now at IPO and raise another $100 billion, they will literally have $231 billion of capital, that is very impressive. They will literally have about three times the spending money, [18:37] about three times the spending money, three times the allowance of Elon Musk at SpaceX. Scott says, "If you break 200K today, I still have that shine I promised." I don't know what that means, Scott, but [18:50] thank you. Uh, we just had a pastor upgrade. Pastor, I won't say the rest of your email here, but it says pastor in it. You know, I was blessed by the pope. Well, actually, the pope just gave me a nod. I have to say it as it was, but we [19:03] just had a pastor upgrade. Thank you so much for upgrading. And uh, that's an existing course member who's upgraded. So, here's the thing. The balance sheet's good. The cash flow statement's good. They're going to have [19:16] before they raise more money at Anthropic. their cash flow statement is actually pretty decent because if I look at their net cash from operations, they're positive. Now, I'm going to be clear, this is somewhat what I mean, not [19:33] dollars. We're a tiny little startup child baby, you know, uh but our child baby, you know, uh but our operating cash flow went positive at the [19:46] end of last year at Reinvest. We're really excited about that. So, that's what's happened here at Anthropic, too. See, negative, negative, negative, negative, positive. Okay, we had the same moment and and we're like, this is [20:00] great. Uh, like this is really cool. You know, this is the evolution of a startup. And so, seeing this obviously at a much larger scale here at Anthropic is is actually a good thing. You can see their free cash flow is pretty decent. [20:12] I've got about 3.5 billion in free cash flow in 6 months. It's not bad. Uh lot higher, but what that means is they're really spending their revenue on their future commitments. So their revenue over here is coming in at 16 in [20:28] well that's in the 6 months ended June 26th. We expect their ARR to end the 26th. We expect their ARR to end the year somewhere around 80 billion per year, which obviously $80 billion per year and then you've got $800 billion of [20:43] year and then you've got $800 billion of commitments less 231 in cash. That means you've got $569 billion of commitments and if you're making $80 billion a year, there's going to be a margin on that, right? So, say your margin, you know, [20:57] once all of this stabilizes because right now, you know, uh the operating expenses are going to be elevated because of stock compensation, IPO expenses, change in fair value of convertibles and derivatives and all [21:11] this, whatever. Say they're at a net margin of 40%. Okay? not including like because we're about to calculate these commitments. So at 40% you know what what what are you doing there? It's 40 that's 32 that's $ 32 billion right? How [21:27] many years is a $569 billion commitment? Well at that level 17 years. That's the part that makes people nervous when you're basically committing 17 years of [21:39] you're basically committing 17 years of your operating income to future commitments on compute. How are you going to do that when you just basically got a junk credit rating? That's what pissing people off today. That's why the [21:55] pissing people off today. That's why the market just poopy dupied and people are a little nervous about that. Okay, we just had another join here. King, the first part of your email here is king. Thank you for upgrading. Reinvest [22:09] Thank you for upgrading. Reinvest one.com, baby. Okay, so overall balance sheet is actually really good right now. The income statement, the cash flow statement, they're actually really good at anthropic. [22:23] The commitments and the junk rating and the FUD, the fear, uncertainty, and doubt and the election and Iran. That's what's pissing people off right now. But wait, there's more because we actually have a bunch of little notes that I want [22:37] more color on anthropic. And we won't spend too much time on it, but I think first thing you need to know is yes, there is a lot of vendor financing going there is a lot of vendor financing going on. Broadcom has 55% net margins though, [22:50] so who cares if they're like, "Hey, we'll basically give you our chips." They're five 55% net margins. They're like 75% gross margins. Even if they only pay 25%. Broadcom gets their costs covered. [23:06] Doesn't freaking matter at all. Monty, thanks for upgrading. So, something to keep in mind. Uh these right here, this is a chart of all of the various uh commitments. There are Broadcom leases, $125 billion over five years. Broadcom [23:23] notes, $42 billion. We've got committed spend. That's another 518 billion. This is how it all totals to about $800 billion. Customer concentration. No revenue. However, their top five customers do make up 25% of the [23:40] business's revenue. So those top five customers, you better hope you can suck them onto this platform and keep them onto this platform. And that's the point of these companies is to really become that SAS destination where you do your [23:52] video editing, your photography editing, your website editing, your coding, your legal work, your word docs, your Excel spreadsheets, your insurance spreadsheets, your insurance underwriting, everything under the shell [24:05] of the anthropic software. What do you basically have? You have SAS 2.0, baby. So, you basically go and this is the this is going to be the weirdest transition for people, okay? Everybody is freaking out about the SAS [24:20] is freaking out about the SAS apocalypse. SAS 1.0 is really sad unless you could prove really good AI revenues, right? But what's actually happening with artificial intelligence is the really good and creative businesses, the [24:35] people and businesses coming up with new and better ideas. Uh, thanks for the $5 donation, Robert. Is Nvidia a buy? Yes. Not personalized financial advice. You did just pay us $5. So, I got to make it really freaking crystal clear. This is [24:48] not personalized advice. I don't know what your portfolio is. I think a video is a buy. You can also follow us in the daily digest. That's free. You go to meet Kevin.com/digest and I'll put like my bearbull scale in [25:00] I don't know your situation. I can't tell you what to do. So, when I say yes, I say Nvidia is a buy for me. Now, add AI to companies. What's going [25:12] to happen is SAS 1.0 companies, they're going to die. The companies that do not adapt are going to die. It's adapt or die. But then there's going to be SAS [25:25] 2.0. And these are going to be a whole host of AI and software startups [25:37] and uh not only a bunch of startups but also legacy that adapt that uh adapt and uh some of these startups are obviously also going to be the labs. So labs legacy that adapt and other [25:52] startups. SAS 2.0 is coming. It's about getting people on your platform and providing value to them and or their agents and that's a big thing that well reinvest terminal which we're really excited but but also it's a big thing [26:07] for for Anthropic. So if Anthropic can suck people into the platform and then agents anywhere else they can keep printing money. I mean look at this. This company makes $15 million of revenue per employee. [26:21] Nvidia is at half of that. Nvidia does $7.2 million per employee with 42,000 staff. Apple's at like 2 million. Apploving actually beats Nvidia. I think [26:33] that's actually they're a very good company. Once advertising gets some love, maybe they'll actually do better. But anyway, Apploven is the 18th fast fattest in the S&P 500 at $7.8 million of revenue per employee. They have a $15 [26:47] billion revolver to help them with the timing of payroll and payments. They do not provide a breakdown of API revenue or consumer revenue. They do not provide segments or geography. So, we have a limited amount of color there. But [27:00] here's where they talk about over 50% of their $100,000 plus customers use both the cloud platform and firstparty applications. So, in other words, getting people into the cloud platform. That's the key. [27:15] That's clutch. That keeps people embedded. Okay. If we get to commitments, these are all the various uh different commitments uh that have been made. So you could see uh here we've got $44 billion committed with [27:30] Microsoft. We've got Google's uh these are compute commitments, right? So Microsoft is providing $44 billion from compute. Google is providing 114 with additional TPU potentially estimated to be around 125 billion. Amazon 110 [27:47] billion blah blah blah. kind of SpaceX is providing compute infrastructure, right? 120 billion over here. AMD is providing AMDA, by the way, has an option to buy Anthropic stock. So AMD already has calls on Anthropic, so to [28:00] speak. OpenAI also has calls on Anthropic. Anthropic. Sorry, OpenAI has calls on AMD. OpenAI, I put this note in here, has uh gotten warrants, which are basically call [28:13] options, to buy up to 160 million shares of AMD at one penny per share in exchange for OpenAI committing to buy AMD chips for a certain batch instead of AMD chips for a certain batch instead of Nvidia chips. Oo, and scale Lambda's in [28:27] you kind of get the idea. All right, pretty diversified. Uh, right now their commitments are about 14x their current revenue. And uh like I said, it take about 17 years of operating income to pay their commitments right now. That is [28:42] the kind of stuff that makes people nervous. big of a deal because I think their revenue is going to grow. I don't think crazily as some people estimate on the internet, but but more so than I think [28:54] the broader market expects. I I think what's happened in the last 6 months has intelligence. And it's actually gone from being, you know, a hallucinogenic from being, you know, a hallucinogenic tool to uh a tool that actually makes [29:09] people money. It's really good. Like I I look at my anthropic bill now and we do at at reinvest. We look at our digital ocean bill. We look at, you know, our data licensing bills and, you know, we our GitHub, whatever. We look at all [29:23] these bills, our security bills. We look at all of this and what we say is thank you because you are enabling what we are building which is really exciting. Top 5% of CL claude enterprise users who use claude code spend 20 times $75 per [29:40] claude code spend 20 times $75 per month. So that means the top 5% of users oh it's about $1,500 per month right here. Puts you in the top 5%. So if you spend $1,500 a month on Claude you're in the top 5%. Uh spoiler alert, I'm I'm in [29:53] the top 5%. Anyway, uh mind you, they don't do video or image generation yet. And they also do not have compute deals with Cerebrris. Cerebras just expanded their availability on the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure platform. Uh I was very [30:10] bearish Cerebrris IPO. I am now bullish Cerebrris. I have flip-flopped. I did flip-flop a little bit too early. There was a two in the front and that's gotten a little low, but my exposure is very limited to Cerebrus uh relative to to [30:24] others. But I but I will say I'm excited about the hardware stack overall. And hardware in the last like two months, you're probably down on hardware. And there are other stocks that you could be up on. Uh you know, whether that's uh in [30:39] the health care space, you know, Madna, that's been a massive boon for us. We bought that puppy I think at like 142 or something like that. poof. That that's to. That and Eli Liy, that's where the money's been going to because people are [30:53] pissing their pants. Uh you know, I hope they got their pooping pants on because of uh the hardware sell off. But anyway, uh Anthropicus deals with Amazon, Google, Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Fluid Stack. Uh lots of lease [31:05] agreements. If we go on over here, this is where they think they'll have uh impact. Lots of knowledge workers, lots of IT spend, relatively old news. All seven of the co-founders are still at Anthropic. They'll have a crap ton of [31:18] share classes and basically their nonprofit is going to control over 50 just over 50% of voting rights. And they're going to be a crapload of lockups with potentially as much as 10% [31:32] of the insider stock available for lockup on day uno, which is generally a little surprising to have not any lockup for insiders on day one. [31:47] That's the sound of a lot of suck. Yeah. So, obviously that moment when we heard rating issue has created a lot of nervousness. It's likely that there were a lot of liquidations. I maintain these are buy the dip opportunities. I [32:04] maintain my bullishness, baby, and I video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it. told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. [32:16] see how it goes. >> Congratulations, man. You have done so you. Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.