---
title: 'I Put Everything on the 5-Year Crypto Cycle… The Final Test Has Begun'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=TSiIB3vYKRs'
video_id: 'TSiIB3vYKRs'
date: 2026-07-31
duration_sec: 1063
---

# I Put Everything on the 5-Year Crypto Cycle… The Final Test Has Begun

> Source: [I Put Everything on the 5-Year Crypto Cycle… The Final Test Has Begun](https://youtube.com/watch?v=TSiIB3vYKRs)

## Summary

This video makes a macro case for a crypto boom in 2026, centered on Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond program and a wave of policy stimulus. The speaker argues that housing-led economic activity will push the ISM above 50, create the excess liquidity altcoins need, and extend the crypto cycle into late 2026.

### Key Points

- **Alts thrive on economic excess** [00:18] — Altcoins sit at the far edges of the risk curve and behave like luxury assets — they need froth and excess liquidity to go vertical. Since the business cycle flatlined in 2021, alts have stayed dormant.
- **Trump orders $200B mortgage bond purchases** [01:41] — Breaking announcement: Trump orders the US government to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to drive mortgage rates down, calling it 'bringing back the American dream.' Most people miss the second- and third-order effects.
- **Locked-in homeowners create pent-up demand** [02:21] — Millions of people locked into 3% mortgages avoided moving because current mortgage rates are far higher. Lower rates would unlock five years of pent-up moving demand.
- **Housing cascade kicks the economy** [04:09] — If rates fall to the high 4s or low 5s, homeowners who waited five years will move — triggering spending on movers, painters, contractors, appliances, and new goods that cascades through the wider economy.
- **Trump keeps inventing new QE tools** [05:43] — Within the first two weeks of January, Trump has already found new ways to do QE. Mortgage rates could drop into the 5% range or lower, which is enough to unlock the housing market.
- **ISM above 50 triggers alt season** [06:49] — The last time ISM ticked above 50, in late 2024, altcoins went bananas. A sustained move above 50 in 2026 could produce a real alt season.
- **Trump's midterm motivation** [07:28] — Trump has pivoted to midterms mode and said 'If we don't win midterms, I will get impeached.' He is pulling every lever: mortgage bonds, credit card rate caps, and record tax refunds.
- **Record tax refunds to juice spending** [08:20] — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant says millions will see the largest tax refunds of their lives in 2026. Tax season opens January 26, and withholdings adjustments will boost monthly paychecks.
- **Inflation under 2% clears path for Fed cuts** [11:30] — True Inflation is under 2%, giving the Fed no excuse not to cut. Polymarket shows an 89% chance rates fall to 3% or lower in 2026, and Venezuelan crude supply could push energy costs down.
- **Clarity Act pulls alts closer to center** [12:39] — The Clarity Act is a massive regulatory event that should pull altcoins from the far edges of the risk curve inward, meaning they need less economic excess to rally.
- **Bitcoin never had its parabolic move** [13:44] — Last cycle's all-time high was $69,000 per Bitcoin; the low this cycle was only around $80,000. The typical parabolic top never happened, suggesting the cycle is not over.
- **All bull markets start with policy** [15:16] — The speaker argues policy is the foundation of every bull run. All current policy incentives point toward an economic boom in 2026, likely extending the crypto cycle to the end of 2026.

### Conclusion

The final takeaway is that policy incentives, especially Trump's need to win the midterms, are aligned toward juicing the economy in 2026 — and that setup historically precedes altcoin rallies. Whether the exact timing works is uncertain, but the speaker is all-in on the thesis.

## Transcript

mortgage bond program, which some people are already calling presidential QE or whatever you want to call it. And if you understand the implications of what this does, it's not very hard to be insanely bullish because this move isn't just
kickstarting the economy, compressing mortgage rates, and as a consequence, setting up the exact economic conditions where altcoins historically go vertical. Historically, as I pointed out in last
week's video, altcoins typically go up with the business cycle, and the business cycle has been flatlined since 2021. The reason that altcoins perform the far edges of the risk curve. As I say all the time, alts eat last. They
require excess in froth in order to do well. In that way, they're a lot like Lambos and Rolexes and a lot of these luxury items. People don't go buy a Lambo. Smart people don't go buy a Lambo and a Rolex when they're fighting to
survive. They buy them when they have excess. Alts are basically your average American's excess spending mechanism. Obviously, they'll spend it on a lot of things uh you know when your average American gets an extra thousand bucks
that they'll dedicate some of their money to. And unlike a Rolex or uh you know Lambo, this isn't a flex uh but it's a potential ticket to a better life. So, in my opinion, alts are laying dormant, waiting for the right macro
conditions for them to spring back to life. All the while, alts are poised to instead of being out on the extreme edges of it due to things like the Clarity Act, altcoin ETFs, and the overall institutionalization of crypto,
little bit later in this video. But first, I want to highlight this because it has huge implications for how 2026 plays out. It says, "Breaking, Trump orders the US government to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to drive
mortgage rates down." And then Trump says, "We are bringing back the American dream." Now, most people do not understand the huge, massive second and understand the huge, massive second and third order implications of what this
does. When the housing market picks up, when people start moving around, you get just a swath of real economic activity that really kickstarts everything into motion. Uh there's a lot of people who who locked into a 3% mortgage rate back
in 2021 who have refused to move because you know mortgage rates have been in the to swallow when you have this really great mortgage rate at 3% and you're Most people don't want to do that. So they have avoided and put off moving
because of that. But now Trump is doing his own form of like presidential executive QE trying to drive mortgage rates down. And at the same time, he's also trying to continue to pressure the Fed to cut rates to to also push
mortgage rates down. He's kind of using every, you know, means that he has to to do with a lot of what we're going to talk about in a second. That's midterms that were coming that I've been saying Trump has pivoted to midterms mode. And
you are seeing him like full on full send into midterms mode. And it's actually insane what we've already in like the first two weeks of January. The already happened actually exceeds anything that
the end of last year. But this one this one is really like a cornerstone. Not not just in sentiment like most people deeply in America deeply care about dream. Own their own home, white picket fans, all that kind of stuff. And it is
out of reach for for most of the younger generation. And and this is a huge move toward the right direction. They want to see housing get cheaper and Trump knows that and that's why he's so gung-ho about pushing mortgage rates down and
cheaper. He did a bunch of executive orders about like, you know, kind of stuff. He's kind of attacking it from all angles. But the thing that we really care about is actually the second and third order effects of this. Once
the the high sixes, right? Uh let's say they get to the low fives or even like the high fours. If you locked in a mortgage rate at 3% and now it's sitting at like 4%, you know, whatever. Um,
that's not as hard of a sell as it's sitting at double, you know, 6%. So, so if if you've been waiting 5 years, because 2021 was 5 years ago at at this point, you've been waiting 5 years to move. Mortgage rates finally break down
into the low four or the high fours, low fives. That is your opportunity to take that opportunity. You're going to be like, "Okay, 3% to 4%, even if it's a difference in your head, at least after you've waited 5 years, like you
are ready to move." And when you move there, this kicks off all sorts of moving truck, maybe you're hiring movers, maybe you're hiring painters to to patch your house, a contractor to fix different things. You move into your new
decorations, maybe buy new TV, buy a new washing washer and dryer. Uh you know, all sorts of new purchases happen. and they're tied directly to somebody moving and buying a new house. And and alongside of that, uh say you're a
these people start to move. Your your business is picking up. What are you marketing firm. You're going to market harder because, you know, like there's a real opportunity here. You're going to hire more workers. You're going to go,
You're going to buy more vehicles because you, you know, your workers need they're making more money. And they're thinking the same thing. Oh my gosh, I got to hire more marketers. I got to, you know, expand my staff, etc., etc.
order cascade effects across the entire economy that kind of it's like throwing reverberates across, you know, all the water um and really kickstarts the economy in into action. And right now, obviously, you know, we dipped into the
high fives. We we went right back down to the or right up to the low sixes. Um Again, we're we're not even two weeks into January. Trump has already invented new ways to do QE and I don't think he's going to stop here. I think he's going
to continue to hit this hard from all different angles and I think it is continue to drop lower. It is possible something like high 4%, you know, is is a stretch that that's definitely pushing it. But honestly, just dropping anywhere
into the 5% range, I think for a lot of people is going to unlock um you know, You know, this is going to be the best chance I'm going to get. And I wouldn't put it past Trump to unlock some new funky thing that we're not even thinking
Like, you know, maybe the rates are in high 5%, but he's already talked about have your rate at 3%, you can carry that over to your new house or whatever. Like I don't know ex exactly how it's going to play out specifically, but I do know
that if he's able to game this right and unlock that economic activity that comes from people moving into new houses, that really does kickstart the economy in a very real way, that has huge second order and third order implications for
getting that ISM uh chart higher that that we talked about earlier and taking conditions to to the more this economic boom conditions. And once the economy is booming and the ISM is tick ticking up above 50, I pointed out in last week's
video, you know, last time it just barely ticked above 50 was late 2024. That was when, you know, alts were going bananas. You had all the agent uh the AI kind that was like a mini little alt season that we felt back then and that
was just this little move. Okay, so imagine a real move above 50. Uh what that would look like. That is when alts shine. That is when alts go bananas. And I think that is where we're heading in 2026. And the reason I think that's
where we're headed is because Trump is highly, highly motivated to win midterms. He's going to do whatever it takes. Whatever it takes, consequences, you know, he'll have to deal with those in 2027. Whatever it takes to win the
midterms because, as he says, this is his own words. Um, four days ago, Trump said, "If we don't win midterms, I will get impeached." Trump is highly, highly motivated to win midterms. He is going all out. We've already gotten the $200
billion mortgage uh bond program. We have uh Trump coming out saying he's he's going to cap credit card rates to 10% and if credit card companies will be in violation of the law if they charge over 10% interest rates after January
20th. And as this post says, Americans will see the largest tax refunds ever in 2026. Many families will be saving between 11,000 and $20,000 a year. And juicing as of today. This is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant saying, "Thanks
bill, millions of Americans will see the largest tax refunds of their lives in 2026. And as a withholdings and as withholdings are adjusted, millions will take home bigger paychecks every month this year. The president wants to get
this money into the hands of American people as soon as possible. That's why to announce that one of the ear this the tax season in the last decade. This year, the tax season will officially
begin on January 26th. people are getting huge tax refunds back and into those people's hands as soon as feel wealthy. They want people to start spending money. They want to juice the
economy and just like you know the economy is massive. Okay, it it's it's a got to start early. They got to start right now. They got to hit it as hard as they can so that by midterms the economy is humming. It is just in overdrive. And
look around, they they see how good it is, and they're like, "We want more of this, and they vote the way that President Trump wants them to vote during midterms." And if it wasn't clear already, Trump understands the
this a lot. It's very important that Trump understands what the mission is for 2026. If he if he didn't get it, if he's like, "Oh my gosh, um, you know, we're already good." Uh, then that would be bad, right? like we need we need him
know, okay, I got to win midterms, but he's got to know how he wins midterms seeing uh here's an announcement where it says President Trump says no new understands that the tariff announcements, all that kind of stuff
has not been helping the economy, has not been helping the markets, etc. Um as Bessant and I and I've said a bunch, um they were saying 2025 was about setting the table, 2026 the feast. Um in earlier podcasts he talked about you know, the
and that was tariffs and all all that kind of stuff. 2026, they're not hitting on any of that stuff is no none of the bad stuff, only the good stuff, only the stuff that juices up the market. And this isn't just me saying this. They are
literally telling you exactly what they expect will happen in 2026. This post the US is preparing for a massive economic boom. This has been their plan since he took office. Their plan has been set the table in 2025, economic
boom in 2026. And as we have mapped out, alts perform the best when the economy is booming. When the ISM is is ticking up above 50, that's when alts are going parabolic. They're going bananas. Again, the problem that we've had with alts is
they haven't been doing that since 2021. Okay, since 2021. This this chart makes this only updates once a month. You can see in 2022, we dropped below the 50 line. It was just like a a down move all of 2022. Dropped below the 50 line and
we just stayed there. Okay. Uh we like tapped it a little baby tap right here and then we we ticked just above it right here first time and it's like just went crazy. It was like the craziest altcoin party you've ever seen.
craziest one you've ever seen, but like you know over this period it was. And uh below. And at the same time as all of this I I talk about a lot that inflation the thing we got to watch. If inflation gets out of control, we are screwed. I I
entire life saving in crypto. I like that is that is the one thing I'm like keeps me up in ice. Like inflation gets crazy. Uh that ruins all my plans. Uh rock. According to True Inflation, right now it's sitting under 2%. Um so so the
Fed doesn't really have any good excuse not to cut rates. We want to continue to according to Poly Market, there's an 89% chance the Fed cuts rate interest rates chance the Fed cuts rate interest rates to 3% or lower in 2026. And at the same
baked into the price of everything. So like when when energy prices go up, inflation goes bananas. When energy prices go down, that is really really this is Trump saying the US will immediately begin refining and selling
up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil, which will continue indefinitely. Our refining capacity was actually based on Venezuelan oil, Trump adds. And that is very very bullish for inflation, the cost of energy, and
getting the economy to cook into overdrive in 2026. Now, on top of this, are the last one to eat. They're far out on the risk curve, but they're coming in closer. And one of the things that that is primed to pull alts, you know, from
the far edges of like deep space on the risk curve in closer to the center of the risk curve is the Clarity Act. And I don't know exactly when the Clarity Act speculating it's going to happen this week. I I don't know, you know, when
political expert when it comes to those things, but whenever it happens, you know, this week, next week, whatever, that is going to be a massive regulatory event that that pulls alts from from the far reaches of space uh closer in on the
risk curve. Uh which means you don't have to have uh you know, as much excess closer they are on the risk curve, the more you know, just a little bit Okay, right now you got to have like this super massive expansion so it can
closer they get in, the less that expansion has to be massive and and the more massive that expansion is, the more it like envelops alts because alts are showing, you know, the classic Bitcoin rainbow chart and he's saying we're
top. And whether you agree with this chart or not, um I would say even the four-year cyclers would say we're closer to the bottom than we are the top in the Bitcoin's like low price. Um because this is what happens with the typical
all-time high of last cycle. The all-time high of last cycle was $69,000 per Bitcoin. Uh like at the low we were at like 81 80 82,000 maybe we $80,000 of Bitcoin. like that that's not that much small lower
never had the parabolic move up in in Bitcoin's price. Uh which again should be confirmation enough for people that like okay yeah the 40 cycle definitely didn't play out as it typically does. We didn't have the parabolic move up in in
that you know like low to go. And so I I are closer to the bottom than we are to the top. Like even in the worst worst case scenario that the four-year cyclist would say and how things play out,
you're talking about going to $69,000 Bitcoin. Like that's not that's not that bad from where prices are today. And I put on past videos, I don't know if you gosh, uh the cycle is going to extend
Ralph Paul saying he thought it was just kind of like copied him. They're like, "Oh my gosh, we also now think it's going to be Q2 2026." And everyone's going bananas on that. Um but
wrong that it was going to actually go well beyond Q226. There was actually no the the reason I think they were doing was because of the um Michael How's uh stuff. And they're all basing off that and I just thought they were all wrong.
And now you've seen a uh at least Ralph has come out and said that he believes the crypto cycle will extend to the end of 2026. And so and I believe soon a lot that bandwagon. And that is because all
bull runs, all bull markets originate with policy. That is that is the foundation of bull markets is policy. Policy decisions are what shape everything. If you want to get to the lowest lowest lowest levels, it sits at
policy. And policy is only headed one direction. It's is heading one place. The incentives are aligned. The place it's going, all of it all of it is heading towards a crazy economic boom in 2026. And so I want to leave you with
this pure unashamed absolute hopeium. This is justopium. Uh but but but maybe it is a hint where at least I hope and I expect is possible in 2026. And that is this. This is this is what happened in 2020. This is what I think is is defin I
don't know if we're going to $380,000 of Bitcoin. That seems a bit crazy to me. peak around 250,000 somewhere around here. But I do fully align that things are about to get crazy. Okay. I think things are about to get crazy in 2026 as
the economic activity spikes up, picks up. I think there's going to be a point like, "Wow, the four-year cycle is definitely dead." As we cross the the things all this stuff gets priced in, things go bananas and as the ISM picks
up as the real economic activity spills over and we have that excess and that bananas. We'll have all season and all of that will take off. That is my where my mouth is and if I am wrong, I will lose so hard. Okay, I don't have
like 5% I don't have 10% of my you know net worth investment everything money where my mouth is and you know it it I I cannot afford to be to to lose or to be delusional or to be stupid about this and I'm just I'm just tracking
originates from policy. I know where policyy's going and so I'm just stepping don't know exact timing, all that kind of stuff. Uh and and I have been I have start Q, you know, the end of 2025. But I was wrong about that. But I believe I
am right about the long-term trajectory of where we're headed and where 2026 is investment advice. None of this is me telling you what to do with your own financial adviser and you should do your
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