[00:00] These sports betting markets look smart, but mathematically they're truly awful. Bookies have designed them to drain customer balance fast. And the worst part, they're some of the most popular bets on Bet365, Skybet and Betfair.
[00:13] So today I'll break down the 5 worst bets in sports betting, show exactly why they're so bad and how much money they cost beginners over time. Trap in because for some of you this might hurt a little.
[00:25] Kicking off with the 5th on my list, Antipost or Outright Bet. They're one of the oldest and easiest to understand in sports betting. Simply pick an outcome on a popular event long into the future and you're in business.
[00:37] The Premier League winner, Champions League or a runner at Cheltenham Festival next year. Often the prices are big and it's a great story to follow over the weeks and months ahead. This is exactly why the sports betting industry loves them.
[00:50] But mathematically, they're one of the worst betting markets you can touch. I'll explain with a couple of examples. First, look at this top goalscorer market for the Premier League on Betfair. It will conclude 6 months from now and at first glance the prices look attractive. However, if I
[01:06] take these prices, convert them to their respective chance and add the percentages together, there's a 41.11% margin on this betting market. Now, if I compare that to the odds of a weekend
[01:19] Premier League game and do the same maths, there's only 11.62% margin, nearly 4 times less. But it gets worse. Far worse. If we look at the anti-post bets on Betfair, we
[01:32] can see some of the prices for Cheltenham Festival next year. Here's the Albert Bartlett. Again, if I run the numbers for a similar situation in Raytheon, we can see how this is a truly horrific proposition. Betfair have applied a whopping 45.58% margin to this
[01:49] better market. Ouch. So why is this? When you find an anti-post or outright bet months ahead of time, there's no competitive market and very little liquidity. It gives bookmakers
[02:01] freedom to hide a huge over-round or margin amongst the hordes. So a selection at 20 to 1 might look generous initially, but on a betting exchange, the true price could be
[02:13] more like 60 to 1 or even 80 to 1. The difference is pure bookmaker margin shifting because the casual punters won't be checking anyway. And it gets worse. The player money is locked up for months If a key player gets injured the manager gets sacked or a runner is withdrawn tough The bookmakers are playing to a feeling most bettors have The earlier
[02:34] I bet, the better the value, because things can change. And yes, things can change, but don't forget it works both ways. And win or lose, the math shows that the bookmakers massively inflate margins on outright bets long into the future, which makes them one
[02:50] of the worst value bets in the entire industry. And if you think that's bad, the next one makes bookmakers even more money. Far, far stuff. Fourth on the list is a bet type that has become incredibly popular over the last few
[03:03] years. In-game bet builders. They look great to the average player. You pick your own combinations, a team to win, a strike and a score, over or under 2.5 goals perhaps, corners and bookings, and build your own bet with a solid payout. And it feels extremely personal. But there's
[03:19] more going on here because here's the trick that most people don't realize when you place a bet builder you're combining markets that are directly correlated when the gold go up wind probability changes when a striker scores
[03:32] shots assists and cards change when corners rise attacking play rises too and so on now normally when two markets overlap like that the bookmakers should offer better odds but bet builders offer worse odds because they control every price
[03:48] inside that debt builder including the correlating factors between those bets so let me show you how extreme it can get with an example say Liverpool to win is evens, Salah to score is 2 to 1 and over 2.5 goals is 4 to 5
[04:03] a naive bettor might think great combine them together and I'll get a massive price the final bet builder for a combination like this would typically come out of 4 to 1 whereas the true probability that it should actually be
[04:15] between is more like 6 to 1 or 7 to 1. The percentage difference is massive. Worse still, the more legs introduced into the BetBuilder, the nastier it gets. Once you hit 4, 5 or
[04:27] 6 selections, the bookmakers advantage is huge. And just like the lottery, you'll win from time to time. But long term, the mass leaves the player with no chance of winning. The worst part? BetBuilders are advertised as fun, smart and personal. They're pushed
[04:43] harder than ever on regulated sites like Bet365, Skybet and Betfair because the house edge is enormous but not as big as the next one on my list This one is particularly shocking in my opinion Request a bet your odds player milestones and other standalones are all within this bracket
[05:02] They aren't the specials you're so frequently pitched to as. Here's the brutal truth. Specials are where bookmakers can hide the largest margins in the entire industry because unlike match odds or handicaps, there's no real competition or fully formed betting market.
[05:16] There's only one option to bet on and the true value is almost completely hidden. You can't compare a special. You can't check the true market value easily. You can't shop for better value because the odds only exist in one place.
[05:31] For example, there's no way for this person to easily know if their bet should be 65 to 1, 80 to 1 or even 300 to 1. So bookmakers can simply pick a number that feels nice while embedding a massive overrun margin inside it.
[05:45] The bettors typically love it because they're not just betting, they're choosing the narratives and then predicting the outcome for that narrative. If we crunch numbers on some of them, the implied chance doesn't reflect the bet.
[05:57] So if bet builders are quietly expensive, specials are daylight robbery in a nice font. How exciting! Now I'll keep this one brief because we have a separate video on these and how to get them working for you.
[06:10] However, generally speaking, most betting accumulators are very bad for the player. They rely on some basic psychology, small stake, huge potential win and the thrill of cheering multiple matches. But mathematically, attas quietly crank the bookmaker's margin through the roof.
[06:26] Much like bet builders, each leg contains a margin, which is usually around 2-7% on a football match. When you stack those legs together, the margin is multiplied. So a four-fold atta isn't four bets with a 5% bookmaker edge.
[06:39] It's four bets with a 5% margin multiplied against each other which often wipes out the chance for a long term profit. So to show you the maths, if you take four even money true 50-50 outcomes, each bet's
[06:53] fair price is 2.0, but bookies would typically price it at 1.91. Put all four into an ACA and the true combined price should be 16 to 1, but at the bookies prices you only get 12 to 1.
[07:06] in value? Straight in the sportsbook's back pocket. But here's the point I want you to remember. If you aren't already beating single bets, adding more legs only makes things worse. However, there is good news.
[07:18] Ackers aren always a disaster It rarer and not as easy as most people think but it can be done mathematically There a video on this channel explaining exactly how to turn certain acres in your favor and the warning signs of a terrible one so make
[07:33] sure you check that out. I'll put it in the description but before you race off to fix your acres there's one last one on our list because this one sounds like a guaranteed win and it catches out more new bears than anything else. Number one
[07:48] on the list is the most misleading of all of them. It'll probably come as a shock to many of you, but risk-free bets from regulated sports bets, you know, the ones like this from Betfair. And because I can just hear the match bettors shouting at the screen right now, this isn't always bad
[08:03] if you know what to do with it. It's how the general public views them that makes them one of the worst bets in sports bets. Typically, a new customer sees their free risk label and thinks, I'll play it safe. I'll pick a heavy favourite.
[08:17] So they put £50 on something at short odds, say 1.5. If it wins, they get a tiny return compared to their stake. If it loses, they get a free bet, not cash. And it's a huge difference because you don't get your stake back, only the winnings.
[08:33] And because of that, it's not really risk-free. So if you use it on a short price favour at odds of 1.5, your £50 return gives a maximum of £25.
[08:45] Now, if it wins, you don't get anything extra, apart from a ton of prompts for you to keep on betting with them. And if it loses, your £50 down are now locked in with them for another pump.
[08:57] Should you choose another short price favour again, say 1.5 for argument's sake, you could potentially win £25. Woohoo! Yeah, you're still £25 down. So let's now consider what did they get?
[09:10] Your email, your phone number, your address, £50, and a customer that will no doubt continue using their product. So what's the best way to play such an offer? Mathematically, the answer is simple.
[09:22] For the opening bet, find the highest priced bet where the betting exchange has a price that's similar. Cancel out the risk of loss by laying it off on the exchange when placing the opening bet, and if the bet loses, the lay bet wins,
[09:34] meaning nothing is lost. Then you use the free credit as you wish. Most bettors completely mess this up, which is why risk-free bets fit at number one on this list. And speaking of tricks, this video breaks down exactly how they fool millions of sports betting fans every week.
[09:51] Check it out now, you won't regret it. It's a good one.