---
title: 'I Found an Arbitrage Tool for Prediction Markets (Kalshi & Polymarket)'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=PaQjSUCZVb0'
video_id: 'PaQjSUCZVb0'
date: 2026-07-26
duration_sec: 920
---

# I Found an Arbitrage Tool for Prediction Markets (Kalshi & Polymarket)

> Source: [I Found an Arbitrage Tool for Prediction Markets (Kalshi & Polymarket)](https://youtube.com/watch?v=PaQjSUCZVb0)

## Summary

This video explains how to profit from arbitrage opportunities between prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket using a software tool called arbs.xyz. The presenter demonstrates how to exploit pricing discrepancies with minimal risk, highlighting the advantages over traditional sportsbooks, such as no limits on bet sizes. The tool automates buying both sides of a market and alerts users when to cash out for a profit.

### Key Points

- **Introduction to Arbitrage Betting** [00:01] — Arbitrage betting is introduced as the closest thing to risk-free betting by taking both sides of a bet. The video will cover how it works and how to take advantage of it.
- **Sportsbook Limitation** [00:15] — The main issue with arbitrage sports betting is that sportsbooks limit bet sizes once you start winning. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi do not have this problem.
- **Arbitrage Explained with Example** [01:20] — Arbitrage is buying and selling identical assets on different platforms. Example: If Kalshi has JD Vance at 60% yes and Polymarket at 65% yes, you can buy yes on Kalshi and no on Polymarket to guarantee a profit.
- **Guaranteed Profit Calculation** [02:48] — By buying yes on Kalshi for 60 cents and no on Polymarket for 35 cents, total cost is 95 cents per share. Regardless of outcome, you get $1 back, yielding a 5% profit.
- **Early Exit Strategy** [03:41] — You can cash out early when markets cross over, allowing you to take profit without waiting for resolution. The software helps identify these crossover opportunities.
- **Introduction to arbs.xyz** [05:34] — The presenter recommends arbs.xyz as a tool that automatically finds arbitrage opportunities, places bets, and notifies users when to sell. It simplifies the process with one-click actions.
- **Terminal View Demonstration** [06:47] — The software displays potential arbitrage opportunities with percentage gain and potential profit. Users can filter by spread, volume, and end date.
- **Historical Crossover Frequency** [08:08] — For long-dated markets, the chart shows how often prices overlap, indicating frequent opportunities to exit early. Example: Taylor Swift market crosses over every two weeks.
- **Handling Same Arbitrage Opportunities** [09:54] — The tool updates every 2-3 seconds. If another user takes the opportunity first, it updates automatically. If you only get one side, it tells you how much to hedge on the other.
- **VPN Requirement for US Users** [11:33] — Kalshi is US-only, while Polymarket's international site is needed for matching markets. US users need a VPN to sign up for Polymarket, but after that, bets are placed via API.
- **Pricing and Risk** [12:38] — The software costs $997 per year (discounted from $4,000). It is not fully risk-free due to potential tech issues, but very close. Users can earn $50-$250 per day.

### Conclusion

Arbitrage between prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket offers a low-risk way to profit from pricing inefficiencies. Tools like arbs.xyz automate the process, making it accessible even for beginners, though US users must use a VPN.

## Transcript

on sports, arbitrage sports betting is the best place to start because it doesn't really get any closer to risk-free betting than arbitrage betting because you're taking both sides of a bet. In this video, I'm going to go over
exactly how it works, how the math works, how you can take advantage of this. But before we get into it, the main issue with arbitrage sports betting is once you start to make money, these sports books catch on and they limit
your bet size so you can no longer really capture that value and actually >> [music] >> However, now with prediction markets being on the scene, you can take advantage of arbitrage between
Polymarket, Kalshi, and a couple other prediction markets while never running the risk of being limited. These platforms have no issue with arbitrage betting [music] because they're not a sports book. They're not making money
when you lose. They're just making money on a fee on every single trade or bet being placed. So in this video, going to go over exactly how this works, [music] to show you the software that I use to
arbitrage betting manually is an absolute pain in the ass. So, [music] without further ado, let me go into exactly how the arbitrage process works on prediction markets and then we'll get
into the software that I use and show you how it works to help you find these All right, let's start off by breaking down exactly what arbitrage means. So, simple. It's the practice of buying and selling identical assets or markets or
in this case bets on different [music] sports books or marketplaces or brokerages. And again, in this case, it would be prediction markets [music] with little to no risk. So, think of it like
if on a single market, J.D. Vance to win the presidential election and Kalshi has the yes odds at 60% and the no odds are at 40%. [music] And then on the same market on Polymarket, they have the yes odds
[music] at 65% and the no odds are at 35%. [music] There is free money for us to make here without even having any clue whether J.D. Vance is going to win this presidential election. It doesn't even
matter because we can literally just buy yes on Kalshi for 60% and we can buy no yes on Kalshi for 60% and we can buy no on Polymarket for 35%. Once the market resolves or you were to cash out of this bet, the market goes to [music] 100% and
those shares that you got at 60% or 60 cents would resolve to $1. So, you would make 40 cents per share. And if it goes to no, then those shares go to 0 cents or 0%. Meaning, if we buy yes shares on Kalshi and we buy no shares on
Polymarket, [music] we now have covered every single outcome in that market. That means that if he wins or loses, we bought both sides >> [music] >> and we've only had to pay 95 cents when
we're going to get 100 cents back regardless of the outcome. So, that is a 5-cent profit per share that we buy. Meaning, a profit per share that we buy. Meaning, a 5% ROI on that [music] arbitrage trade.
Now, obviously with arbitrage sports betting or arbitrage prediction markets, you're going to be tying up money on both [music] sides of a trade and the only time that you get your money back is when that trade or that bet resolves.
However, with prediction markets, what's really, really interesting is you don't If you're doing that J.D. Vance presidential election market, well, you don't want to have your money tied up for the next [music] 2 years until he
either wins or loses the election. But, what's very interesting is these markets what's very interesting is these markets cross over a ton of times [music] from Kalshi to Polymarket, meaning there are many opportunities where you can simply
many opportunities where you can simply cash out of that trade and make that profit. Now, obviously, when these markets are [music] crossing over, that's the perfect time to cash out of your arbitrage opportunity, take your
profit, and run. Now, one thing to understand as well is that even if you don't cash out early [music] to take that profit, when the market does [music] It's just you don't want to have that tied up for 2 years. So, what we
like to do is [music] use, again, software to help us find those opportunities where they do cross over. So, now you can absolutely capture that risk-free money. So, as an example, you're using this piece of software that
I'm going to show you in just a second [music] here, and we can see that are aliens going to exist before [music] 2027? You could buy yes for 14 cents on 2027? You could buy yes for 14 cents on Kalshi, you could buy no for 76 cents on
Polymarket. That means you spend 90 cents total for a guaranteed profit of cents total for a guaranteed profit of 10 cents per contract traded, and that is a 10% profit. And then, almost immediately after that market ended up
immediately after that market ended up crossing over, one of them moved their percentages, moved their lines on that bet, and you were then [music] able to cash out of both sides and capture that 10% profit literally just a couple
information being thrown at you, a lot of really promising things, but how does software work? Let me show you exactly what I use and how [music] it notifies when things are crossing over, notifies you when to sell, and you're actually
[music] So, I've been using arbs.xyz as my software of choice, mainly because they just make it so easy, and I've just heard a ton of success stories of actual [music] people making actual money. So
obviously that's very important, but very very simply they find you the spread the arbitrage opportunity. They do the math for you where you literally click one button to buy both sides of [music] it. So it's really really
simple. They buy the perfect amount on both sides to make [music] sure you're maximizing your return and then when your arbitrage is sellable, [music] they ping you either in Telegram or Discord saying, "Hey, you can now sell
[music] this for a profit." And again, you literally click one button to really doesn't get any easier than that. That's why I'm using this premium piece >> There are other ones out there that are a lot cheaper, but just a lot clunkier
and really not that clean. So that to me making it clean and easy is the biggest doing this for hours [music] on end. So let's look at some examples. This is the terminal view. Your arbitrage opportunities pop up on the
right-hand side. It tells you what kind of what kind of percent gain you can make and then also the amount of money you can make based on the liquidity in that market. You can filter it based on the percent spread like we have right
amount of profit that you can make on that one like you can see some of these then you got volume, volatility, and then the end date. You can also do it where if you don't want to have to like cash out, you can do it on the lower
soccer game ending you know tomorrow or something thing where you don't have to I recommend looking at the spread at least for what I'm showing you guys how it. It'll pull it up in this terminal view and it'll show you exactly the
spread you're getting, the estimated profit, the prices on Call Sheet and Polymarket. As you can see, Polymarket has it at [music] 4 cents to the yes and then Call Sheet has it at 91 cents to the no. Add those two up. That's 95
cents. Regardless of the outcome, you get 100 cents. So, [music] that's a 5% edge there. And they also have this view here that shows you the exact price [music] and when it does cross over. And what's important, especially if you're
taking a long-dated arbitrage opportunity like this one here, the top artist on Spotify [music] in 2026 being Taylor Swift, this one's right? So, locking up your money for 6 months, no bueno in my opinion. So,
what you can do here is you can see how often these overlap. You can see Kalshi and Polymarket right here [music] overlap to where you can cash out. Same with back over here. And this is just showing you the last month. If we look
at all time on this market, how many times this has crossed over? [music] I mean, just look at it. It's almost every every 2 weeks or so, >> it's crossing over to where the blue line's going below the green and vice
And it's going up and down, up and down, crossing over because these markets are not efficient. [music] They're moving, they're changing, and they're giving you these opportunities to simply just [music] be smart with your money, use
math, use software, and take advantage of these pricing discrepancies. So, this would be a fantastic market to do this on because [music] it has crossed over so many times over the past 6 months that, [music] I mean,
it's pretty safe to say it likely will do it again quite soon. And that really is all you need to know about [music] how this works. I mean, at the end of the day, it comes down to you connect your Polymarket account, you connect
your money [music] at all. You just connect your wallets. And then, once an arbitrage alert comes in, you would click this button at the bottom here to place the bet on both sides. It places it for you on both books.
>> And then, when you get an alert, I'll show a screenshot of an alert pop up >> It'll tell you, "Hey, now's the time to go sell these." You click the button, it brings you to the terminal, you click sell, [music] and you lock in your
profit. So, really the the main key things here, make sure that you have enough funds in both your wallets, so you are able to complete [music] both sides of the trades. Some other frequently asked questions that we got
this product in the Juice Bets VIP Discord, which we've had also a ton of with it as well. Some of the main questions were, "Well, what if [music] the same arbitrage opportunity at the same time?" Well, this updates every 2
to 3 seconds. So, you're actually able to see when these markets are changing [music] and moving. And so, somebody captures that arbitrage before you can, well, it'll simply update and you won't be able to take [music] that bet again.
And on the off chance you are able to get one side [music] like on Polymarket not able to get that side, [music] it will tell you how much you have to place on that Kalshi side to make sure that you are hedged and you're not losing
one outcome. So, that's a really important thing to understand. Now, it's time to be fully transparent and talk about all the little things that you need to understand before you start doing this. First of all, this will take
It could take 5 minutes, [music] you know, at different points in the day where you do have to go in and check the tool and make sure that you are [music] entering these trades and then also you're checking your notifications when
[music] and then you are going in and sell. The second thing to understand is that Polymarket and Kalshi are the two prediction markets that are the best to one, they have the most markets. Number two, there's the most liquidity and
volume coming in. And so, those are pretty much the main reasons why those are [music] the best prediction markets to do it on. However, if you're using Kalshi, [music] you have to be in the United States, but PolyMarket's
international website is the one that you need to use for these markets that match with Kalshi. And so, technically, you can't get that [music] in the United you can't get that [music] in the United States. However, if you use a VPN, it is
seamless, incredibly [music] easy, and no problems whatsoever. So, I highly recommend that if you're thinking about purchasing this product, you're in [music] the United States with a Kalshi and a PolyMarket account, you
use a VPN for the PolyMarket account. You just need that for when [music] you sign up. And if you were to ever actually go on PolyMarket. But once you're using this tool, you're placing those bets through the tool, through
their API. [music] And so, the the whole VPN issue doesn't really become that difficult at that point. [music] Another thing to keep in mind, you can do this on your phone as well. So, that that makes it very easy and nice to be able
Now, now that we're talking about things to consider, this is an expensive piece of software again because [music] this is risk Well, it's not fully risk-free, obviously. There are can be tech issues
and and whatnot. But it's [music] as close to risk-free as you can get arbitrage betting, right? However, we did talk with the team and we're trying to make it more accessible for people, but only those who want to use this
So, we do have a discount link down below using a code down there and using below using a code down there and using our special link. It's going to be $997 per year. So, [music] that's basically, you know,
you know, $2-3 a day to make 50 to 250 bucks a day. Obviously makes sense when you look at it that way. However, I want you to keep in mind that that is the cost. And now, that is very, very
discounted. Previously, it was like I think it was like $4,000 a year. If you the tool, feel free to drop them down below as well. I'll be happy to answer anything [music] else to know about this tool besides the fact that it just does
genuinely [music] work specifically for College and Poly Market. It's a no-brainer for anybody in the United States who can get a VPN. A VPNs are five bucks [music] a month, no problem there either. And also, if you do want
about their experience with this tool, [music] feel free to drop a comment. I can get you in the Discord to ask other people how it's gone for, you know, [music] that's all I got for you guys. Definitely a really, really cool
product, something brand new that I [music] had really never even thought little too efficient, but they're really just not. There's so many markets, so >> so many arbitrage opportunities. I appreciate you guys watching this video.
Thank you for your support, and we'll see you in the next one. I haven't mentioned yet in this video that bet tracking is an incredibly important this is something that is done automatically for me [music] by using
the app called Pikkit. Pikkit connects all your sportsbooks and DFS apps into one area and shows you exactly [music] how profitable you are, how much money you're making, are you beating the closing line. You can go granular down
to, okay, how well am I doing with this specific player or this specific team. It's a fantastic app, and it's [music] completely free. I've linked it down below to check out cuz this is something that profitable better has in their
toolkit, some way to track your bets and understand are [music] you profitable. So, make sure that you at least are using Pikkit for bet tracking. using Pikkit for bet tracking. >> [music]