[0:01] Well, well, well, well, well, well. Here
[0:04] we go, folks. It looks like and we still
[0:07] have to make sure everything gets tea
[0:10] crossed and eyes dotted, but it looks
[0:12] like the market is reacting to really
[0:14] big enthusiasm about a deal. I got to
[0:16] run out of the door in a few minutes
[0:18] here. I actually shouldn't even be
[0:19] streaming right now. But this is great
[0:21] news because what's happening now and
[0:23] we're going to go through the news is we
[0:25] are getting a broadening finally in the
[0:28] market on news of this deal. We could
[0:31] see that the cues the NASDAQ 100 is up.
[0:34] But what even happened before this deal
[0:36] was announced is thanks to Snowflake
[0:39] holding on to its 35% gains. We did a
[0:42] full fundamental analysis on Snowflake
[0:44] in a course member live stream. We've
[0:46] been paying attention to the software
[0:48] bottom forming. Look at what's happening
[0:50] in software. Cloudflare is up 6 1/2%.
[0:54] You've got Palunteer up nearly 4%.
[0:56] Meta's actually green. It's bounced off
[0:59] actually pretty nicely off of this 607
[1:02] level. Pretty important line that we
[1:04] have recently continued to hit. Uh Axon
[1:06] up another 9%
[1:09] which is remarkable on the day here. Uh
[1:12] and finally solidifying a little bit of
[1:14] a bottom. Why? Why is some of this
[1:17] happening now? Well, some of it's
[1:19] happening because of this Iran uh likely
[1:22] deal that has been reached according to
[1:24] leakers inside the White House. We do
[1:26] not yet have Donald Trump's truth social
[1:28] post on this. But we're going to go
[1:30] through the details of uh what what is
[1:33] rumored to be announced very shortly.
[1:36] And this is what the market is starting
[1:37] to move on. We could actually see uh oil
[1:41] and yields move on this deal as well.
[1:43] So, we have to be careful not to get
[1:45] super excited yet because there's always
[1:47] a chance one side's going to come out
[1:49] and go, "This is fake news." But,
[1:52] frankly, we keep moving closer and
[1:54] closer uh to um uh to a deal, you know,
[1:59] almost on a daily basis. It seems like
[2:01] on a daily basis, we're moving inch inch
[2:03] inch closer. And even though yesterday
[2:05] we had some nervousness in the market
[2:08] over, oh no, we got drones flying and
[2:11] we're striking each other with defensive
[2:13] strikes again, which is just kooky
[2:14] dookie. It does seem like it's fair to
[2:16] get excited over the fact that we are
[2:19] approaching finalizing getting Hormuz
[2:22] reopened, which is great. This morning
[2:25] we were sitting at 76 on Brent. That is
[2:28] despite the fact that we had uh in the
[2:31] uh PCE inflation read this morning and
[2:33] the GDP read although in fairness the
[2:35] GDP read indicated Q1 our economy grew
[2:39] slightly slower than expected at 1.6%
[2:41] rather than 2%. Most people aren't going
[2:43] to pay attention to that. We did get uh
[2:46] Brent though come down now about $2
[2:48] intraday. You've got WTI coming down
[2:50] also about a buck and a half intraday.
[2:52] Uh 10-year Treasury yield down about 1.6
[2:56] bips. So you can see a lot of this deal
[2:58] almost already feels like it's you know
[3:02] we're not seeing much reaction in the
[3:04] bond market yet. I think markets now are
[3:06] like all right can can we actually let
[3:09] this be a final deal now but according
[3:12] to the leakers inside of the White House
[3:14] the deal has been reached. So there is
[3:17] an understanding to extend the ceasefire
[3:19] and separately negotiate Iran's nuclear
[3:22] program. So the Iran nuclear program
[3:24] will be negotiated separately. There
[3:26] have been discussions already about
[3:27] potentially China or Russia taking
[3:31] Iran's nuclear highlyenriched material.
[3:33] Uh it is unlikely that is uh going to be
[3:37] acceptable to Donald Trump. We also see
[3:39] that the Israelis are still expanding
[3:41] their incursion into um Lebanon. You've
[3:45] got two more large city evacuations were
[3:47] just issued yesterday. Donald Trump says
[3:50] ultimately nobody will control Hormuz
[3:52] and it will be open for all. As part of
[3:54] this deal that is currently being
[3:56] leaked, we're expecting Hormuz to open.
[4:00] And Donald Trump is saying he's going to
[4:02] remove the blockade
[4:05] in pieces based on how much Iran loosens
[4:09] their blockade and how much untold
[4:12] traffic Iran lets through. So, we'll
[4:15] see. This is good progress so far. It
[4:19] would be the signing of that memorandum
[4:21] of understanding. We've heard about
[4:22] since Saturday. Both of them did after
[4:26] Saturday's excitement was announced.
[4:28] Both of them said, "Hey, this is still
[4:29] going to take days. We're not in a major
[4:31] rush to get this done." It seems like
[4:34] now we are getting even closer to this.
[4:36] US negotiators briefed Trump on the
[4:38] details of the final deal, but did not
[4:40] immediately sign off yet. The president
[4:42] relayed to the mediators that he wants a
[4:44] couple days to think about it. So, in
[4:46] fairness, we're now waiting for Donald
[4:48] Trump to craft his truth social post to
[4:51] show how he can declare victory on this.
[4:54] Overall, this is obviously extremely
[4:56] exciting. Uh it is worth noting uh that
[5:00] uh the US officials claim the Iranians
[5:02] did come back and say that they had
[5:04] necessary approvals and were prepared to
[5:06] sign. Now, to be determined if that is
[5:09] definitely true, some of the stuff comes
[5:11] from leakers, so we don't know. Uh, the
[5:13] Iranians did circulate a 14-point plan
[5:16] that did not include the Iranian nuclear
[5:19] program 2 days ago, which Donald Trump
[5:22] called fake news. But if you think about
[5:24] it, this current framework and
[5:26] memorandum of understanding is also not
[5:28] expected to include the nuclear program
[5:30] because we expect to just kick the can
[5:32] down the road on the nuclear program and
[5:34] the highlyenriched uranium, which does
[5:36] mean we're still in a worse off position
[5:38] than where we were before, where we had
[5:40] weapons inspectors and an understanding
[5:42] of where the uranium was. But it is a
[5:45] sign that after the damage that was
[5:47] caused on February 28th by attacking
[5:49] Iran and uh Iran essentially taking
[5:52] control via strangle hold of the
[5:54] straight of Hormuz we can now see that
[5:56] we are getting alleviated tensions and
[5:59] we're trying to at least get back to par
[6:02] which remember in January oil prices
[6:04] were 60 bucks. So if we could get back
[6:06] there we could also see that PCE
[6:08] inflation which came out this morning.
[6:10] We could see that number come down. By
[6:12] the way, PC inflation numbers this
[6:14] morning, while the GDP numbers weren't
[6:16] great on the revision, the PC numbers
[6:18] were a lot less scary than feared. We
[6:20] had 2% on core versus the feared.3%.
[6:24] And exer or core services excluding
[6:26] housing which were rising in CPI came in
[6:30] only at.1% on PP or PCE. Here we did
[6:34] also see households
[6:36] uh see their household incomes basically
[6:38] go stagnant. essentially no growth in
[6:41] household income. Uh in despite the fact
[6:44] that you're seeing household expenses up
[6:45] 0.5% more than expected. So households
[6:49] getting squeezed a little bit of relief
[6:52] on some of that core services inflation
[6:54] we saw from CPI which is good for yields
[6:57] and I would call it another step closer
[7:00] to a deal. It's not 100% official. It's
[7:03] not all going to be over until as I say
[7:05] the fat lady sings or whatever we want
[7:06] to call it. uh but uh but this is really
[7:10] taking shape because we are seeing
[7:12] probably the biggest sort of issue left
[7:15] is dealing with Israel and Lebanon. But
[7:18] I think one of the reasons and I
[7:19] mentioned this on Saturday, I think one
[7:20] of the reasons Israel is ramping up
[7:24] their attacks into Lebanon uh is because
[7:27] they know this deal is imminent. Uh, in
[7:30] fact, because this deal is so imminent,
[7:34] uh, we're doing a little special thing
[7:36] for people watching this live stream.
[7:38] Uh, we're we're we're doing we we were
[7:40] just changing getting ready to change
[7:42] the prices, changing all the prices on
[7:43] all the courses. Uh, we're going to do a
[7:46] really quick like 12-hour extension.
[7:48] That's it. 12 hours. Then the prices
[7:50] going up. Coupon code deal is going to
[7:53] expire tonight. Uh, and we have already
[7:55] set June 8th as our tentative target for
[7:58] releasing a lot of new features that
[8:00] course members are absolutely going to
[8:02] love. So, we've got a really big release
[8:04] coming out on June 8th. The pricing for
[8:05] the courses will be a lot higher then.
[8:07] But, if you want to join the membership,
[8:08] use coupon code deal on the announcement
[8:10] of this deal. That'll uh we'll we'll
[8:12] raise the pricing tonight on it. Very
[8:15] brief extension here. Just about 12ish
[8:17] hours, 13 14-ish hours, something like
[8:19] that. Uh, but let's keep looking at this
[8:21] here. Trump and his adviserss thought
[8:22] they were close to a deal several times
[8:24] earlier the stage of war but nothing has
[8:26] materialized. The uh US officials said
[8:28] the 60-day memorandum of understanding
[8:31] will state um uh that shipping through
[8:33] the straight of Hormuz will be
[8:34] unrestricted, no tolls and no harassment
[8:37] and will have Iran will have 30 days to
[8:40] remove all the mines from the straight
[8:41] if any. I wouldn't actually be surprised
[8:43] if the United States helps or Iran just
[8:45] provides the corridor. Remember the way
[8:48] the straight of hormuz works is I'll
[8:49] show you where we think the minds are
[8:51] just sort of consolidating uh the the
[8:54] research and knowledge that we have of
[8:55] the area. We believe that the mind areas
[8:59] of the straight of Hormuz which is right
[9:01] here right you've got the Persian Gulf
[9:03] right here the Gulf of Oman on the right
[9:04] side. Uh you know that Saudi Arabia is
[9:07] using their east west pipeline to get
[9:09] oil over to the Red Sea. We know that
[9:11] the Houthis over in Yemen have not shut
[9:13] down uh the straight over here which is
[9:16] great. We don't need another choke
[9:17] point. But we believe that the mining
[9:20] has mostly occurred on this bottom half
[9:23] of the straight of Hormuz. And that's
[9:25] why Iran forces ships close to their
[9:29] coastline around Lorac Island right
[9:33] here. That this is the safe passage
[9:35] around Lorac and then out, suggesting
[9:38] that this is the mind area. Which means
[9:41] even if Iran doesn't clean all up all of
[9:43] the mines, you could still move through
[9:44] this section right here, which would be
[9:46] fantastic. I'm almost done. I'll be
[9:47] right there. I got to run. I'm getting
[9:49] in trouble. Uh Oman should know that the
[9:51] US Treasury will target any actors
[9:53] involved in facilitating tolls of the
[9:55] Straight of Hormuz. Oh, this is Besson.
[9:57] Besson's talking right now. Any willing
[9:59] partners in tolling in the Straight of
[10:00] Hormuz will be penalized, including
[10:02] Oman. And Oman is a friend and a peace
[10:05] negotiator for the US. So Bessant is now
[10:07] sticking it to Oman saying you better
[10:10] not participate in tolling them. This
[10:12] needs to be open. You guys need to clean
[10:14] up your crappy mines over here. Iran
[10:16] again I think we'll just send people
[10:18] through Lak over here and then you can
[10:20] avoid the mines. Uh but that's also
[10:22] where you're within drone range, right?
[10:24] That's why most of the ships that are
[10:26] stuck over here don't want to go through
[10:28] there because they know they're just
[10:30] going to get droned by the Iranians.
[10:32] You're really close to land that way. So
[10:34] anyway, the blockade will be lifted in
[10:36] proportion to the restoration of
[10:38] commercial shipping. The MOU will
[10:41] include an Iranian commitment not to
[10:42] pursue a nuclear weapon and we'll figure
[10:44] out how to dispose the highlyenly
[10:46] enriched uranium within 60 days. Very
[10:50] impressive, I have to say. Um this is
[10:52] another step in the right direction. I'm
[10:53] very excited that we can actually
[10:55] potentially broaden this market rally.
[10:58] Uh I think that's very likely especially
[11:00] as oil continues to drop and bonds
[11:02] continue to uh bond yields continue to
[11:04] drop. I do think we are moving to about
[11:06] 739 pretty soon on the NASDAQ 100 but it
[11:10] needs to be driven by that 21% portion
[11:12] of the NASDAQ 100. That's software Axon
[11:16] which is one of our uh you know one of
[11:18] our our targets for a really big bounce
[11:21] off the software bottom mostly because
[11:23] police departments aren't going to vibe
[11:24] code their software away for this. Uh
[11:26] this right here is going to be in my
[11:28] opinion huge uh a huge opportunity in
[11:31] the longer term. And if you want to see
[11:32] more of those huge opportunities and
[11:34] stocks like we've been calling out in
[11:36] the course member live streams, make
[11:37] sure you join us. You could use that
[11:39] coupon code deal. Again, we just very
[11:41] briefly extended it solely on this deal
[11:44] right here. Big price increase tonight.
[11:46] You get every trade alert, all nine
[11:47] courses, every private live stream,
[11:48] every alpha report, uh every single
[11:50] course that we've got allin-one
[11:52] membership and new features coming out
[11:54] on June 8th. I think everybody's going
[11:55] to love. Thanks so much for being here.
[11:57] Go to meet Kevin.com. We'll see you all
[11:58] soon. Goodbye.