---
title: '**PEACE DEAL!!! [IRAN!]**'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=m4sYK7wttkc'
video_id: 'm4sYK7wttkc'
date: 2026-06-28
duration_sec: 720
---

# **PEACE DEAL!!! [IRAN!]**

> Source: [**PEACE DEAL!!! (IRAN!)**](https://youtube.com/watch?v=m4sYK7wttkc)

## Summary

A potential peace deal between the US and Iran is reactively boosting the stock market, particularly the software sector. The deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower oil prices, but concerns remain about its final approval and the unresolved issue of Iran's nuclear program.

### Key Points

- **Market Enthusiasm on Potential Deal** [[0:01]] — The market is reacting with big enthusiasm to leaked news of a potential US-Iran deal. The NASDAQ 100 is up, and software stocks like Snowflake, Cloudflare, and Palantir are rallying.
- **Market Movers and Indicators** [[0:58]] — Software stocks are forming a bottom. Meta bounced off a key level of 607. Axon is up 9%. Oil (Brent) dropped $2 intraday, WTI dropped $1.50, and 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.6 basis points.
- **Details of the Leaked Deal** [[1:12]] — Leakers inside the White House report that a final deal with Iran has been reached. It includes an understanding to extend the ceasefire and separately negotiate Iran's nuclear program. Donald Trump has not signed off yet and wants a couple of days to think.
- **Strait of Hormuz and Oil** [[3:14]] — A key component of the deal is reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump will remove the blockade in pieces based on Iran's compliance. Officials claim Iran has necessary approvals to sign. Oil prices could fall further, which would help inflation.
- **Nuclear Program Deferred** [[5:16]] — The deal does not include the Iranian nuclear program, which will be negotiated separately. This means the situation is still worse than before the deal, where inspectors were present. Iran circulated a 14-point plan without nuclear topics.
- **Pricing and Course Promotion** [[8:03]] — The creator is extending a coupon code 'deal' for 12 hours on course memberships, with a price increase planned afterward. New features are scheduled for release on June 8th.
- **MOU Details and Mine Clearance** [[8:28]] — The 60-day memorandum of understanding will state that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is unrestricted, with no tolls or harassment. Iran has 30 days to remove all mines, but a safe passage may already exist around Larak Island.
- **US Treasury and Oman Warning** [[9:46]] — US Treasury will target any actors involved in facilitating tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, including Oman. This is to ensure the strait remains open.

### Conclusion

The leaked deal is a positive step toward reducing geopolitical tensions and lowering oil prices, but final approval from Trump is pending. The market is reacting optimistically, focusing on software stocks and lower bond yields.

## Transcript

Well, well, well, well, well, well. Here
we go, folks. It looks like and we still
have to make sure everything gets tea
crossed and eyes dotted, but it looks
like the market is reacting to really
big enthusiasm about a deal. I got to
run out of the door in a few minutes
here. I actually shouldn't even be
streaming right now. But this is great
news because what's happening now and
we're going to go through the news is we
are getting a broadening finally in the
market on news of this deal. We could
see that the cues the NASDAQ 100 is up.
But what even happened before this deal
was announced is thanks to Snowflake
holding on to its 35% gains. We did a
full fundamental analysis on Snowflake
in a course member live stream. We've
been paying attention to the software
bottom forming. Look at what's happening
in software. Cloudflare is up 6 1/2%.
You've got Palunteer up nearly 4%.
Meta's actually green. It's bounced off
actually pretty nicely off of this 607
level. Pretty important line that we
have recently continued to hit. Uh Axon
up another 9%
which is remarkable on the day here. Uh
and finally solidifying a little bit of
a bottom. Why? Why is some of this
happening now? Well, some of it's
happening because of this Iran uh likely
deal that has been reached according to
leakers inside the White House. We do
not yet have Donald Trump's truth social
post on this. But we're going to go
through the details of uh what what is
rumored to be announced very shortly.
And this is what the market is starting
to move on. We could actually see uh oil
and yields move on this deal as well.
So, we have to be careful not to get
super excited yet because there's always
a chance one side's going to come out
and go, "This is fake news." But,
frankly, we keep moving closer and
closer uh to um uh to a deal, you know,
almost on a daily basis. It seems like
on a daily basis, we're moving inch inch
inch closer. And even though yesterday
we had some nervousness in the market
over, oh no, we got drones flying and
we're striking each other with defensive
strikes again, which is just kooky
dookie. It does seem like it's fair to
get excited over the fact that we are
approaching finalizing getting Hormuz
reopened, which is great. This morning
we were sitting at 76 on Brent. That is
despite the fact that we had uh in the
uh PCE inflation read this morning and
the GDP read although in fairness the
GDP read indicated Q1 our economy grew
slightly slower than expected at 1.6%
rather than 2%. Most people aren't going
to pay attention to that. We did get uh
Brent though come down now about $2
intraday. You've got WTI coming down
also about a buck and a half intraday.
Uh 10-year Treasury yield down about 1.6
bips. So you can see a lot of this deal
almost already feels like it's you know
we're not seeing much reaction in the
bond market yet. I think markets now are
like all right can can we actually let
this be a final deal now but according
to the leakers inside of the White House
the deal has been reached. So there is
an understanding to extend the ceasefire
and separately negotiate Iran's nuclear
program. So the Iran nuclear program
will be negotiated separately. There
have been discussions already about
potentially China or Russia taking
Iran's nuclear highlyenriched material.
Uh it is unlikely that is uh going to be
acceptable to Donald Trump. We also see
that the Israelis are still expanding
their incursion into um Lebanon. You've
got two more large city evacuations were
just issued yesterday. Donald Trump says
ultimately nobody will control Hormuz
and it will be open for all. As part of
this deal that is currently being
leaked, we're expecting Hormuz to open.
And Donald Trump is saying he's going to
remove the blockade
in pieces based on how much Iran loosens
their blockade and how much untold
traffic Iran lets through. So, we'll
see. This is good progress so far. It
would be the signing of that memorandum
of understanding. We've heard about
since Saturday. Both of them did after
Saturday's excitement was announced.
Both of them said, "Hey, this is still
going to take days. We're not in a major
rush to get this done." It seems like
now we are getting even closer to this.
US negotiators briefed Trump on the
details of the final deal, but did not
immediately sign off yet. The president
relayed to the mediators that he wants a
couple days to think about it. So, in
fairness, we're now waiting for Donald
Trump to craft his truth social post to
show how he can declare victory on this.
Overall, this is obviously extremely
exciting. Uh it is worth noting uh that
uh the US officials claim the Iranians
did come back and say that they had
necessary approvals and were prepared to
sign. Now, to be determined if that is
definitely true, some of the stuff comes
from leakers, so we don't know. Uh, the
Iranians did circulate a 14-point plan
that did not include the Iranian nuclear
program 2 days ago, which Donald Trump
called fake news. But if you think about
it, this current framework and
memorandum of understanding is also not
expected to include the nuclear program
because we expect to just kick the can
down the road on the nuclear program and
the highlyenriched uranium, which does
mean we're still in a worse off position
than where we were before, where we had
weapons inspectors and an understanding
of where the uranium was. But it is a
sign that after the damage that was
caused on February 28th by attacking
Iran and uh Iran essentially taking
control via strangle hold of the
straight of Hormuz we can now see that
we are getting alleviated tensions and
we're trying to at least get back to par
which remember in January oil prices
were 60 bucks. So if we could get back
there we could also see that PCE
inflation which came out this morning.
We could see that number come down. By
the way, PC inflation numbers this
morning, while the GDP numbers weren't
great on the revision, the PC numbers
were a lot less scary than feared. We
had 2% on core versus the feared.3%.
And exer or core services excluding
housing which were rising in CPI came in
only at.1% on PP or PCE. Here we did
also see households
uh see their household incomes basically
go stagnant. essentially no growth in
household income. Uh in despite the fact
that you're seeing household expenses up
0.5% more than expected. So households
getting squeezed a little bit of relief
on some of that core services inflation
we saw from CPI which is good for yields
and I would call it another step closer
to a deal. It's not 100% official. It's
not all going to be over until as I say
the fat lady sings or whatever we want
to call it. uh but uh but this is really
taking shape because we are seeing
probably the biggest sort of issue left
is dealing with Israel and Lebanon. But
I think one of the reasons and I
mentioned this on Saturday, I think one
of the reasons Israel is ramping up
their attacks into Lebanon uh is because
they know this deal is imminent. Uh, in
fact, because this deal is so imminent,
uh, we're doing a little special thing
for people watching this live stream.
Uh, we're we're we're doing we we were
just changing getting ready to change
the prices, changing all the prices on
all the courses. Uh, we're going to do a
really quick like 12-hour extension.
That's it. 12 hours. Then the prices
going up. Coupon code deal is going to
expire tonight. Uh, and we have already
set June 8th as our tentative target for
releasing a lot of new features that
course members are absolutely going to
love. So, we've got a really big release
coming out on June 8th. The pricing for
the courses will be a lot higher then.
But, if you want to join the membership,
use coupon code deal on the announcement
of this deal. That'll uh we'll we'll
raise the pricing tonight on it. Very
brief extension here. Just about 12ish
hours, 13 14-ish hours, something like
that. Uh, but let's keep looking at this
here. Trump and his adviserss thought
they were close to a deal several times
earlier the stage of war but nothing has
materialized. The uh US officials said
the 60-day memorandum of understanding
will state um uh that shipping through
the straight of Hormuz will be
unrestricted, no tolls and no harassment
and will have Iran will have 30 days to
remove all the mines from the straight
if any. I wouldn't actually be surprised
if the United States helps or Iran just
provides the corridor. Remember the way
the straight of hormuz works is I'll
show you where we think the minds are
just sort of consolidating uh the the
research and knowledge that we have of
the area. We believe that the mind areas
of the straight of Hormuz which is right
here right you've got the Persian Gulf
right here the Gulf of Oman on the right
side. Uh you know that Saudi Arabia is
using their east west pipeline to get
oil over to the Red Sea. We know that
the Houthis over in Yemen have not shut
down uh the straight over here which is
great. We don't need another choke
point. But we believe that the mining
has mostly occurred on this bottom half
of the straight of Hormuz. And that's
why Iran forces ships close to their
coastline around Lorac Island right
here. That this is the safe passage
around Lorac and then out, suggesting
that this is the mind area. Which means
even if Iran doesn't clean all up all of
the mines, you could still move through
this section right here, which would be
fantastic. I'm almost done. I'll be
right there. I got to run. I'm getting
in trouble. Uh Oman should know that the
US Treasury will target any actors
involved in facilitating tolls of the
Straight of Hormuz. Oh, this is Besson.
Besson's talking right now. Any willing
partners in tolling in the Straight of
Hormuz will be penalized, including
Oman. And Oman is a friend and a peace
negotiator for the US. So Bessant is now
sticking it to Oman saying you better
not participate in tolling them. This
needs to be open. You guys need to clean
up your crappy mines over here. Iran
again I think we'll just send people
through Lak over here and then you can
avoid the mines. Uh but that's also
where you're within drone range, right?
That's why most of the ships that are
stuck over here don't want to go through
there because they know they're just
going to get droned by the Iranians.
You're really close to land that way. So
anyway, the blockade will be lifted in
proportion to the restoration of
commercial shipping. The MOU will
include an Iranian commitment not to
pursue a nuclear weapon and we'll figure
out how to dispose the highlyenly
enriched uranium within 60 days. Very
impressive, I have to say. Um this is
another step in the right direction. I'm
very excited that we can actually
potentially broaden this market rally.
Uh I think that's very likely especially
as oil continues to drop and bonds
continue to uh bond yields continue to
drop. I do think we are moving to about
739 pretty soon on the NASDAQ 100 but it
needs to be driven by that 21% portion
of the NASDAQ 100. That's software Axon
which is one of our uh you know one of
our our targets for a really big bounce
off the software bottom mostly because
police departments aren't going to vibe
code their software away for this. Uh
this right here is going to be in my
opinion huge uh a huge opportunity in
the longer term. And if you want to see
more of those huge opportunities and
stocks like we've been calling out in
the course member live streams, make
sure you join us. You could use that
coupon code deal. Again, we just very
briefly extended it solely on this deal
right here. Big price increase tonight.
You get every trade alert, all nine
courses, every private live stream,
every alpha report, uh every single
course that we've got allin-one
membership and new features coming out
on June 8th. I think everybody's going
to love. Thanks so much for being here.
Go to meet Kevin.com. We'll see you all
soon. Goodbye.