---
title: 'My Top 10 Predictions for Crypto in 2026'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=Idu2szkghmU'
video_id: 'Idu2szkghmU'
date: 2026-07-31
duration_sec: 1003
---

# My Top 10 Predictions for Crypto in 2026

> Source: [My Top 10 Predictions for Crypto in 2026](https://youtube.com/watch?v=Idu2szkghmU)

## Summary

A crypto analyst reviews his 2025 predictions — calling his third annual batch a 'huge failure' — before laying out 10 bold predictions for 2026, including the death of the four-year cycle, a long-awaited alt season, explosive stablecoin growth, AI tokens crossing $100B, altcoin ETFs, and a Bitcoin cycle peak of $170K–$250K.

### Key Points

- **2025 Dip Prediction Half Right** [00:40] — Predicted a major dip in early January 2025 and it occurred, but the underlying thesis was wrong: alt season did not ignite in February; alts massively sold off through spring amid 'tariff liberation day' chaos.
- **Cycle Thesis Shifted to Five Years** [02:55] — After the disappointing start, the analyst concluded that 2025's market was driven by institutional bids and narratives, not macro liquidity, so the traditional four-year cycle bull run was off the table and the cycle extended into 2026.
- **Strategic Reserve Call Was Spot On** [03:37] — As predicted, the U.S. government did not buy new Bitcoin; it simply reclassified the Bitcoin already on its balance sheet as a strategic reserve, with no commitment to buy more.
- **Alt-Season Targets Missed, Still Expected** [04:17] — BTC ~$170K, ETH $13K–$20K, an AI crypto project above $100B, NFT comeback, crypto gaming and memecoin mania were all tied to alt season and therefore failed in 2025.
- **ETF Flows: ETH Tripled, Bitcoin Flat** [05:25] — ETH ETF flows more than tripled in 2025, while Bitcoin ETF flows stayed roughly in line with 2024 due to a macro risk-off year.
- **BlackRock's Top Revenue Source: Bitcoin ETFs** [05:41] — Despite flat flows, Bitcoin ETFs became BlackRock's biggest revenue source, with allocations nearing $100B against $13.4T in AUM.
- **Third Prediction Batch Called a Failure** [07:18] — The creator rates his third annual predictions as a massive failure, mainly because he missed the alt-season call early in 2025, though he redeemed part of his thesis mid-year.
- **Four-Year Cycle Declared Dead by Summer 2026** [08:01] — Once market participants accept the old cycle is over, ignored good news should trigger an epic reversal, potentially as early as January.
- **2026 Predicted as the Bull Run Year** [08:58] — He bets that 2026 finally delivers the bull run and alt season that 2025 was supposed to have, and says he is 'betting everything' on it.
- **Stablecoins to Outgrow 2025** [09:55] — Stablecoins had a breakout 2025, but 2026 will dwarf it; as a crypto-native on-ramp, they provide on-chain liquidity and a strong bull case.
- **AI Projects to Hit $100B During Alt Season** [11:14] — AI crypto projects should vastly outperform during the alt season, with at least one project crossing a $100B market cap.
- **Altcoin ETF to Kickstart Alt Season** [12:43] — A Solana, XRP, or similar altcoin ETF will attract serious flows and spark speculation about future ETFs, kicking alt season into overdrive.
- **Three Rate Cuts Predicted for 2026** [13:40] — He predicts the Fed cuts rates at least three times in 2026, following the late-2025 pattern of cuts in September, October, and December.
- **Bitcoin Peak Target Raised to $170K–$250K** [14:49] — Raises his BTC cycle-peak target to $170K–$250K due to the extended timeline; ETH remains at $10K–$20K.

### Conclusion

The analyst admits he cannot reliably predict the future, but his 2026 outlook is decisively bullish: a dead four-year cycle, a long-delayed alt season, booming stablecoins and ETFs, plus a potential Bitcoin peak of $170K–$250K.

## Transcript

predictions for what I think is going to happen in crypto over 2026. And this is prediction video. I've done three of these videos before. Uh my first two
were absurdly on point. I don't know how, but somehow I ended up getting those first two uh prediction sets really, really on point. My third batch actually going to be recapping during this video. And this one was a little
bit more of a mixed bag. It was definitely my worst prediction batch to those predictions and talking about what I got wrong and right, as well as going through my top 10 predictions for 2026. First off, last year I predicted we'd
see a major dip in early January 2025. And this prediction was kind of true, kind of not true. We did we definitely had a huge dip going into January and then February, March, April, etc. So, we did have like a crazy dip at the start
of the year. There's no doubt about that. But the reason that I was saying we were going to see a huge dip was because that's typically what we see right before alt season, right before a bull run. And if you guys remember back
then during that prediction video, I was predicting that we would see an alt season early 2025. So I was saying, hey, in around February 2025, we're going to see alt season ignite. That's what I was saying back then in that prediction
video. And so although we did see a dip in January and I was correct I I guess technically on that prediction, I was also completely wrong because the the reason and the framing for why I said that we would have that dip was not true
because we definitely did not have an alt season in February of 2025. And of which was we'd see an alt season in early February of 2025. Obviously basically the exact opposite happened. alts massively sold off in February and
and into March and into April as we had like the tariff liberation day madness and all of that. And this was actually my personal catalyst for what caused me expectation was that if the four-year cycle was intact, we'd start to see
momentum early 2025. I mean, everyone thought that 2025 was going to be the year we're going to really see alts take off uh going into the end of the year. runup and it it'd be, you know, this awesome year. But when we saw a
disappointing start to the year, that really caused me to have to dig deep and say, "Okay, why are we seeing this disappointing start to the year and what year?" And as I dug into the macro picture for 2025, what I uncovered was
that the current setup had been entirely driven by different fundamentals than past cycles. It wasn't driven by this huge macro wave in liquidity. It was in institutional bid. It was it was a narrative uh plus institutional flows
into crypto bid that was pushing up the price of Bitcoin. And so it was entirely cycles. And there was very little chance that in 2025 we're going to see the liquidity that we needed to have that typical bull market bull run that that
the four-year cycle. And so although I did have this huge miss with my February, that is what caused me to re-evaluate my thesis really early on in 2025. And I've stuck with that ever since that 2025 was not going to be this
four-year cycle bull run uh that that went into this parabolic rally, but that actually it would be the first 5-year cycle that ran into 2026. My next prediction was that we were going to see a Bitcoin strategic reserve in 2025, but
that it wasn't going to be what most people expected it would be. Most people actually go out and buy Bitcoin. But what I was saying was most likely to happen was that they would just take the Bitcoin on their balance sheet and move
just call it a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Basically saying that they there were they weren't going to buy any more Bitcoin. And this one was absolutely spot on. That is exactly what happened. Uh the government came out,
reserve, but it was just them not selling the Bitcoin they currently hold on their balance sheet. with no means at least yet uh of buying more Bitcoin. And then I have a category of predictions that were really aimed at alt season. So
come in 2025, I had a category of predictions that were aimed at alt that we'd see an all-time high of Bitcoin uh ranging around 170K. We'd see
an all-time high for ETH around 13K to 20K. We would see an AI crypto project that would surpass a h 100red billion in market cap during alt season. We would see NFTts make a comeback late alt season and we'd see crypto gaming take
off late alt season and that at the very very far tail end of alt season we'd see this like Ponzi memecoin mania blowoff top. And although I still believe all these things, I believe that they're a part of all season. They're not tied to
made those predictions, I thought all season was going to happen that year. going to come alongside alt season. And so, I was wrong about that. Uh, but I magically they're specifically tied to 2025. I was saying magically they're
I still believe these things are coming. And when I revised my thesis to be more macro oriented in early 2025, I revised "Hey, these aren't going to happen until all season comes." So, you could
definitely call that a miss for that prediction if you want, but the intent they're tied directly to all season. My last prediction was that we'd see Bitcoin and ETH ETF flows double or triple going into 2025. And this one was
half right, half wrong. ETH ETF flows did more than triple in 2025. So, in that way, I was right about ETH ETF flows. Bitcoin ETF flows, however, did not double in flows over 2025. They were basically in line with the flows from
2024. But in the spirit of the prediction, it is worth pointing out that Bitcoin ETFs uh in 2025 became Black Rockck's top revenue source. Uh which is actually pretty crazy. So Black Rockck, the biggest asset manager on the
planet, um its top revenue source is Bitcoin ETFs. And I think one way you could probably explain why Bitcoin ETFs didn't double or triple in 2025 was 2025 as a whole was a macro riskoff year. We had tariff madness. We had all the
craziness of fall and the TGA rebuild and the government shutdown etc. So it was a really heavy macro riskoff year. The flows in 2024 for ETH were pretty abysmal. So it was a lot easier to double or triple those flows. The flows
for 2024 for Bitcoin were really really strong. So to double or triple those, you needed some like real, you know, momentum going. And what we saw in 2025 was just overall it was abysmally a a a pretty poor macro year. And and despite
you know, I would directly tie it to those flows. Um, you know, we we still had really positive flows in 2025, but I move on to my top 10 predictions for 2026, I did want to read this quote. It
says, "Black Rock's Bitcoin ETFs have become the firm's top revenue source with allocations nearing 100 billion. a surprise given the firm's 1,400 plus surprise given the firm's 1,400 plus ETFs and 13.4 trillion in assets under
really cool and kind of crazy. I I still think that's is crazy that bit, you know, one year later, Bitcoin ETFs have become the firm's top revenue source. think about it. Anyways, to tally up the score my first two years, pretty on
point. Did a good job. My third year of predictions was actually I would I would call it actually a huge failure. I my only redeeming grace on my third year of revise my thesis pretty early on in 2025, but it's kind of inexcusable to
have missed the alt season call early on in 2025. That's a big enough miss in my opinion to call that third batch of predictions a pretty massive failure. All right, on to the 2026 predictions. Hopefully hopefully these ones age a lot
better than last year's predictions. My first prediction for 2026 is I think by summer of 2026 it'll be conclusive that the four-year cycle is dead. I think everyone will accept this. Possibly earlier, possibly spring or whatever,
but for sure by summer of 2026, everyone will accept that the four-year cycle is dead. Or they'll, you know, say things like, "Ah, it was a different four maybe weird wrapping around it or whatever. But, you know, whatever you
saying that the way that the four-year cycle worked in the past is dead and that there's a new paradigm shift happening. And I think when people perceive the four-year cycle to be dead, we're going to see an epic reversal as
has been ignored because people believe that it's just like clockwork. Crypto has to sell off going into 2026. I believe that good news will be accounted for in one epic reversal. So, we'll see just like this huge move up and it could
happen in January of 2026. I'm not saying it won't. I'm just really hedging because I screwed up so bad on last year's predictions uh that I'm that I'm really hedging and saying by summer of 2026. My second prediction is [laughter]
not going to surprise anyone and that's that 2026 is going to be the bull run and all season all of that that everyone expected 2025 to be. And you know what? year I'm making a predicting video and I'm like, "Oh, guess what? Again, guys,
I was wrong about all season." I I might be done. I might actually just call it quits because I you can miss once. That's okay. Um you can have a couple mistakes, but I I feel like massive calls like that two years in a row, it
almost becomes inexcusable by that point. So, if I'm wrong about this, uh, going into next year when I do this recap of predictions, I am going to have to really re-evaluate what I'm doing with my life. So, I'm saying 2026 is
going to be the bull run everyone expected 2025 to be, alt season, all of betting everything. I'm betting everything I have. I sold my house. Everything is invested on this bet. And if I'm wrong, you know what? I I accept
I'm trying to say. My third prediction is that stable coins in 2026 are going to grow faster than anyone ever imagined. I think like stable coins definitely had their breakout year in 2025 for sure, but I think 2026 is going
to top that. I think stable coins will be widely accepted as a massive massive success for crypto well beyond even what they are accepted as today. I think the adoption story for stable coins in 2026 is going to be something that's just
people in Wall Street and stuff, you know, pointing to stable coins and being like, "Wow, this was crypto's really massive success story." Uh even though it kind of already feels like they're already doing that in 2025, I think 2026
is going to dwarf uh anything we've seen with stable coins in 2025. And this is really bullish because stable coins are basically like a a cryptonative on-ramp. Okay? So like they're cryp they're more cryptonative liquidity. it's onchain
liquidity that can easily push its way into, you know, these other assets. And so I think actually that's a really strong bullcase for why crypto is going to continue to scale and grow. And maybe an easy way to think about this is like
it's a lot harder to get money from your bank account into crypto than it is to get money from stable coins into crypto. My fourth prediction is that AI projects will vastly outperform during alt season and that we'll see one project cross 100
billion. So, this is just me carrying forward a prediction from last year. The see the crypto, and this is not really me going out too much on a limb. We're bill passed. That's pretty much consensus that that's going to happen.
We're going to see an abundance of regulatory clarity and just acceptance the gates open. You're going to see a lot more experimentation around ICOs, token launches, etc. And this is going to really push the space forward and put
a lot of focus on alts. uh because this is inherently very bullish for alts. Uh really that much like regulatory like uncertainty when it comes to Bitcoin. This is directly aimed at altcoins, which which is insanely bullish. My
sixth prediction is that Bitcoin and ETH ETFs will see more flows than they saw in 2025. And I'm going to go out on a limb and say by at least double. Okay, so we had a macro uh headwind year for 2025. ETH still was able to outperform
starting point, but I think Bitcoin's performance was kind of a fluke. I want a doover and I'm going to say at least double to to possibly triple uh the flows for Bitcoin going into 2026. It should be a macro liquidity positive
flows. And if you look at the trajectory of these ETFs, they grow year over year one little fluke here because of macro dynamics or whatever, but I say at least double or triple going into 2026. That is my prediction and I stand by it. My
seventh prediction is that at least one altcoin ETF. Uh so you know, Salana, XRP, like I don't know, Doge, whatever, at least one is going to gain serious traction. Like people are going to be like, what the heck is happening with
this altcoin ETF? And because of it, you're going to see this huge unlock of speculation about uh you know, future altcoin ETFs, a lot of hype around the that's actually going to be one of the core catalysts that really kicks all
season into overdrive is the speculation around altcoin ETFs. Like these altcoins take that many flows to like really push up the price. And I think that's going to be eyeopening uh for the altcoin market especially kind of in line with
clarity and all that kind of stuff. I think all of this is really compounds together to push a pretty major all season in 2026. My eighth prediction is that we're going to see at least three rate cuts in 2026. Um it wasn't a part
of my predictions video last year, but I talked about a lot early on in the year that I thought we'd see three to four rate cuts in 2025. And I actually thought I was going to get this one wrong. Uh because we did we did not see
any rate cuts for a long time and I was like what the heck is going on? Uh but later in the year, like late in the year, uh we had October, Sep September, October, and December rate cuts that did take us to three. And so that one, it
but I talked about it a lot early in 2025, and that did end up coming true. that those three rate cuts, but we're going to see at least, and this is me kind of being conservative and hedging, at least three rate cuts in 2026. My
last one was my eighth. I might have said seventh, but this is my ninth. My Bessant, this this is not going to be surprised to anyone. Trump and Bessant are going to run it hot in the midterms, and they're going to stimulate any way
physically possible. Uh that includes if they can get it through Congress, stimulus checks, um any trick that they could possibly find up their sleeves, they're going to use to stimulate the economy going into 2026. My final
prediction video that I thought Bitcoin would hit a 170K at cycle peak. Uh but during that prediction video, I thought that the cycle peak would be in 2025. However, given the extended time frame going into 2026, I now believe that the
cycle peak could range anywhere from 170K to 250K. So, um I'm actually raising that up a little bit and saying 170K is kind of like the the base bar of where I think it hit cycle peak, but I think it could go as high as 250K. Now,
with my price target and staying actually not raising my ETH price target. And I and I might be wrong not I'm I'm just going with my gut here and saying 10 to 20K, which I already think
is pretty explosive and just massive gains for ETH. That that would still be from here from this point. Bitcoin went all the way to 250K. ETH went to 20K. outperform. So, I'm not I'm not saying that it wouldn't, but given current
don't have a reason to to believe it go above 20K. I think that like the strong. And that's it. Hopefully my fourth year is not another disappointment. I I need to redeem myself from my horrible performance last
I felt like I maybe I was becoming a wizard. I I was getting so many of these things right. Uh but I I guess last year had to come in and and humble me a bit and teach me that, you know, I I really can't predict the future. But anyways,
2026. As always, obviously I'm not a financial adviser. None of this is investment advice. I am no wizard. I definitely can't predict the future. And And if you're curious about seeing my entire portfolio or you want to see
every time I buy and sell various tokens as well as different weekly video market Council is closed to new members, but you can sign up for the wait list in the is helpful, make sure to hit that like button. If you want to see more videos
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