[00:02] And to clarify, we do not think it's priced in at these levels. uh Monday of next week, and then we'll be able to get it done. >> Big news for cryptocurrency holders, a
[00:15] >> Big news for cryptocurrency holders, a major step forward for the Clarity Act today. My name is Aaron. This is Altcoin Daily. We've been keeping you up-to-date on everything crypto, most specifically the last couple of weeks, the Clarity
[00:29] Act. So much has been happening. Well, it's official, a new crypto Clarity Act draft has just been published. So, what happened? Well, the Senate Banking
[00:42] version and the House Agriculture Committee version have been merged, and an ethics provision has been added for the first time. This is significant because what they're trying for, what comes next, is a motion to proceed,
[00:56] expected today or Tuesday, for a possible floor vote the week of August possible floor vote the week of August 3rd. One week warning, crypto believers. The Senate passing the Crypto Clarity Act this week should be a matter of
[01:11] national emergency. The US still has a huge opportunity to lead in technology and finance. Let's not get left behind. This is crypto's final chance. And to be
[01:24] clear, Clarity Act could pass or not pass. Bitcoin isn't going away. Crypto isn't going away. However, if Clarity Act passes, Bitcoin's price will go up.
[01:36] This isn't according to me. This is according to Charles Schwab's head of crypto research, Jim Ferryoli. He explains Charles Schwab's Bitcoin clarity bull thesis, saying, "To clarify, we do not think it's priced in
[01:50] at these levels. We think the passage of the Clarity Act could reignite some upward momentum. I don't want to say 25%, but >> Talk me through a little bit of your view on the Clarity Act. If it passes,
[02:02] what happens to crypto markets? >> Yeah, so Clarity has been the major fundamental catalyst we've been tracking all year and to clarify we do not think it's priced in at these levels. We've been tracking the daily Clarity
[02:15] Act odds of passage in 2026 and we look at that with a consortium of different factors and see what's been driving Bitcoin's prices on a day-by-day basis and in general year-to-date on average Clarity Act odds whether they're
[02:30] increasing or falling that day can only really explain about 4% of Bitcoin's daily price movement. So we think that Clarity Act passage is not being priced into Bitcoin here and I think that's important for two reasons. So first,
[02:45] if it gets delayed beyond summer recess, first we think the odds low. Once you get back from summer recess,
[02:58] it's campaign time ahead of midterms. And so in that case we don't think that would be a negative for Bitcoin's price. Doesn't appear to be priced in at these The flip side, if it were to pass in the next couple of weeks, we think that is
[03:12] really serving as a legislative call option. Earlier this year, option. Earlier this year, first we launched trading and another large financial institution had a high profile ETP launch and that both of
[03:26] those were earlier on in the spring. What you saw around that time is Bitcoin price rallied about 25% because you had a return to this institutional adoption narrative. And so we think the passage of the Clarity could reignite some
[03:40] upward momentum. I don't want to say 25% but we think it could bring about a return to the narrative of institutional adoption which is kind of months. >> And Coinbase now putting their
[03:54] reputation on the line saying we expect the Clarity Act to get voted on. As explained by Coinbase's Chief Policy Officer, I think we'll have a crypto Clarity Act vote as early as Monday of next week, then we'll be able to get it
[04:09] >> This bill is a extraordinarily bipartisan piece of work. It's ready for final action. We're very excited that it's going to get done. I do want to say one thing. Leader Thune did say express some skepticism about getting done a
[04:22] number of the issues that he's got teed up for floor action before August. Uh his commitment to getting the Clarity Act I think done before August remains. Uh I've talked to his office and uh we're hopeful that will happen. I think
[04:35] we'll have a vote as early as uh Monday of next week and then we'll be able to get it done and hopefully uh let the Senate go back uh for the bipartisan win under their belt. >> BlackRock making a huge announcement
[04:49] today endorsing the Clarity Act officially for the first time. I mean, we've known for quite some time Larry Fink is a Bitcoin Ethereum bull. Well, today BlackRock's Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Market
[05:03] Development Samara Cohen provided a statement to the press saying we think clarity is an important step towards establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets that put investors first. She added that the bill would quote help
[05:19] the United States shape the next era of market structure supporting innovation while preserving the transparency, resilience, and investor protections that keep the US the global leader in capital markets.
[05:32] And at this point, it looks like every executive member of the $15 trillion executive member of the $15 trillion financial firm BlackRock, they're all financial firm BlackRock, they're all Bitcoin bulls. BlackRock CIO Rick Ryder
[05:46] about a month and a half ago, asked point-blank about Bitcoin when it was near its lows, "Are you really still into Bitcoin?" And he admits, "I think Bitcoin is going considerably higher." >> One of your mutual funds, I believe,
[05:59] still owns a little bit of IBIT Bitcoin. And you were one of the early people inside BlackRock to get into it. It's now sold off 50%. wait more? >> Well, these are very specific questions.
[06:12] listen, I think it's ultimately going considerably higher. I think the technicals, there are some technical condition around it that causes it to going higher. >> BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Fidelity,
[06:26] Goldman Sachs, Grayscale, the biggest names in finance are backing the Clarity names in finance are backing the Clarity Act. Over 30 trillion in combined assets have all backed the bill. So, with 1 week remaining and still confusion over
[06:43] the exact text of the Clarity Act, is this bill good? Is it bad? What does it this bill good? Is it bad? What does it actually do? Let's clear up a few myths about what the Clarity Act actually says. Information brought to us by the
[06:56] Crypto Council for Innovation, a global alliance of industry leaders dedicated to unlocking the promise of crypto. Fact versus fiction, what's actually in the bill? Myth. And these are all myths. Myth, Clarity is weak on illicit finance
[07:12] and national security. That's false. Clarity is the most comprehensive digital assets law enforcement bill to date. It expands AML, CFT requirements, boosts public-private intelligence sharing, funds FinCEN with additional
[07:26] $150 million, gives Treasury more authority to combat money laundering risks, and much more. Myth, Clarity doesn't protect consumers. That's false. doesn't protect consumers. That's false. We've seen law enforcement organization
[07:40] all the way to the NBCI Black Church Coalition, so many coalitions and organizations whose mission is to protect consumers have endorsed this bill. Myth, Clarity was written by crypto industry insiders for crypto
[07:56] industry insiders. That's false. Clarity has been shaped by years of bipartisan work with the crypto industry, with the traditional finance industry, with Wall Street, with regulators, with everybody. Myth, Clarity will lead to a deposit
[08:10] flight. This is false. Even though there is no evidence to support this claim, Clarity still includes language that explicitly addresses this concern. just the other day. >> We put out language with the
[08:24] comprehensive bill yesterday so people could see what it looks like to have the agriculture's work, the banking committee's work, the ethics committee's work, the judiciary's committee's work all combined into one piece of
[08:40] legislation. We're still challenged by the bankers allegations that this will reduce deposits and make less money available for lending. There's actually no proof of that. As you just pointed
[08:57] no proof of that. As you just pointed out, deposits in banks are up since the Genius Act passed a year ago. They're trying to use the Clarity Act to amend the Genius Act that passed a year ago even though there's no indication
[09:12] that it's going to hurt their deposits. There's no pleasing Democrats at this So, we're facing some headwinds. >> And does the bill have everything I could ever want? No, but it has so many good things for crypto in the United
[09:28] States. Many have missed this great section added to Clarity, writes Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy. And what this is is language for protection for self-custody coins from being deemed lost under abandoned property laws due
[09:44] to on-chain inactivity or dormancy with federal preemption over state laws as well. So, this bill is leagues better than what we have now. The US needs to do this. By establishing clear rules,
[09:59] clarity will bring digital asset activity onshore subjected to US regulatory standards and preserve America's leadership in technology, finance, and innovation. The time is now. And as Charles Schwab's head of
[10:14] research explained, if the Clarity Act passes, we could see a 25% pop. 25% pop passes, we could see a 25% pop. 25% pop from here would put Bitcoin at about 81, 82,000. And that would be a pop just based on
[10:29] the Clarity Act news. If we put everything together, interesting, Charles Schwab's head of crypto research think they think Bitcoin's fair value is actually closer to 95,000 today and Bitcoin continues to be undervalued
[10:45] >> If you were to say what's the fair value for Bitcoin at these levels, I think it's probably about 95,000. So, summer is seasonally weak. We're in Bitcoin winter. So, what I would point
[10:58] to is typically towards the end of the year, that is a positive for risk What I've been looking at and what really anchors how we think about Bitcoin's short-term valuation is what are the costs of producing it. There are
[11:12] a couple different ways that these can be calculated, but for the miners with be calculated, but for the miners with the most efficient ASIC fleets, they produce at about $60,000 today, right? Inefficient miners at the peak
[11:25] were producing about $95,000. If you think about any other commodity producer on Earth, they generally have low profit margins. And so, it's not saying it's a what's the fair value for Bitcoin at these levels, I think it's probably
[11:39] about $95,000. Will we get there in the next 6 months? Who knows. So, you could get a year-end rally. It doesn't take a lot of flows to move the the needle on Bitcoin. This is a supply-constrained asset. Um we traded
[11:52] a supply-constrained asset. Um we traded quickly from about $60,000 up to $83,000 earlier in this year. And so, again, I think a lot of that hinges on clarity passing, a return to this institutional adoption narrative, and maybe some
[12:05] sustained momentum there. >> Now, Federal Reserve and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's second FOMC meeting is this week. Expect volatility, but zooming out, there is so much reason to be bullish. You don't need to see more
[12:20] charts apart from this one on Bitcoin capitulation. We've hit Bitcoin capitulation as it's been just as worse as in 2022. The inverse of that statement, 2022 was the best period to buy Bitcoin, just like it is right now.
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[13:06] below. So much is happening in crypto, my friends. Stay informed. Stay subscribed. Subscribe to the largest crypto community in the world, and I crypto community in the world, and I will see you tomorrow.