---
title: 'Data Scientist Warns Bitcoin Holders: History Is Repeating!'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=FjmHBEzHUZw'
video_id: 'FjmHBEzHUZw'
date: 2026-08-06
duration_sec: 1633
---

# Data Scientist Warns Bitcoin Holders: History Is Repeating!

> Source: [Data Scientist Warns Bitcoin Holders: History Is Repeating!](https://youtube.com/watch?v=FjmHBEzHUZw)

## Summary

In this interview, data scientist Benjamin Cowen discusses the striking similarities between the 2026 Bitcoin bear market and the 2018 cycle, predicting a potential final capitulation before a market cycle bottom. He provides price targets, on-chain indicators to watch, and advice for navigating the current market conditions.

### Key Points

- **Eerie Similarities to 2018** [00:02] — Cowen notes that the 2026 bear market is tracking almost identically to 2018, with similar lows, higher lows, and rallies to the 200-day moving average.
- **Final Capitulation Expected** [04:47] — He expects one final capitulation, similar to 2018, which occurred in November/December, but suggests it might come earlier this time, possibly late September or October.
- **Price Targets** [11:08] — Base case: high 40s to low 50s (below realized price ~53K). Worst-case: below 40K (balance price), which would reset all on-chain indicators.
- **Realized Price as Key Level** [12:51] — Historically, Bitcoin goes below realized price in midterm years; in 2018 it was November. Current realized price is ~53K, so a drop below that would check a box.
- **Balance Price as Ultimate Support** [14:11] — All prior market cycle bottoms occurred below the balance price (~40K). If Bitcoin goes below that, it would fully reset every on-chain indicator.
- **Probability Bottom Is In** [19:39] — Cowen gives a 40-60% chance the bottom is already in, but leans towards a final drop later in the year, possibly on the back of a stock market correction.
- **Stock Market Correlation** [21:46] — Historically, Bitcoin's final low in midterm years coincides with a 10-20% correction in stocks starting in August/September.
- **New Conference: Investing Through Cycles** [23:25] — Cowen announces a new conference in Miami on November 21st, focused on data-driven investing through cycles, with less hype.

### Conclusion

Cowen advises having a plan, sticking to it, and ignoring noise. He emphasizes that being right and making money are different, and suggests DCA as a strategy rather than trying to time the exact bottom.

## Transcript

compared to the 2026 bear market, they're actually really similar. Look at the similarities. Really eerily similar. And I'll actually talk about where I think they're going to deviate. >> "History [music] is repeating", says
data scientist Ben Cowen, who is noticing some eerie [music] similarities noticing some eerie [music] similarities between 2026 and 2018. "A final crash is >> So you're saying that this year playing out very similar to
2018. And obviously, after a big dip in the beginning of 2018 and you know, ranging near the lows, we saw that one final capitulation. If true, if there's price target? >> Ben Cowen gives his best prediction for
where he thinks Bitcoin goes next based on data. >> You have 3-month 3-month warning, Altcoin Daily audience. It is now that you show me all this, it is amazing how closely it has like followed 2018.
>> Smash the like button. Share this video with one friend who also follows Bitcoin and let's [music] jump into this. >> Macroeconomic analyst and data scientist, also sometimes known as a dubious speculator, Benjamin Cowen of
Into the Cryptoverse, he has just started a new crypto and cycles investing conference. It's in Miami, November 21st, 10% off tickets
Miami, November 21st, 10% off tickets with my link below. More on that later. on today. Before we talk about price, man, how are you? How are you getting through these hard times in crypto?
getting through it. Um I mean, the World Cup is fine. That's right? Is every mid-term year we have the World Cup. So that's what I'm mostly watching. And you know, with crypto, a lot of times we get
a sort of a big drop going into the summer like late June early July and and then there the the markets kind of go up slightly for usually part of July reprieve from that from that bear market. But yeah, I think just trying to
distract myself with other things real life, right? Real life. We have five kids too. We got a yeah, our fifth kid this year and that's certainly So, I guess life is the way I'm getting is
>> That's awesome. That's awesome. The bear market didn't stop you from meeting a nice lovely woman and starting a family. >> But real quick, uh, World Cup prediction.
>> So, like like crypto, there's what I want to happen and what I think will happen, right? And what I want to happen is I want the US to win the whole thing, right? Like without a doubt, that's who I that's who I want to see.
Um, now is that likely? Probably not, but I'm going to be a uh, I'm going to be a blind perma bull rooting for the USA even though it might not seem like the most likely outcome. Who do I think will win it?
Um, I mean, Argentina's got to be up there. I think France has has pretty I mean, just the the main juggernauts, right? You have France, Spain, Argentina, and England. Um, Germany getting going out was a big
surprise. And that was a pretty big surprise early. Brazil's out. You know, I'd like to see Norway do well. I I think Holland is a is really do well. And also, by the way, the best
chess player in the world is also from Norway, Magnus Carlsen. So, uh, that'd I I don't really, you know, I it's hard to know because even Argentina only beat to know because even Argentina only beat Cabo Verde three to two, you know? So,
really knows. I'm I'm cheering for the USA and and if it's not them, it'll probably be one of those big four. probably be one of those big four. Ben, let's jump in to Bitcoin and you
know, your thoughts on you know, what comes next. I guess to start things off, what surprised you the most in 2026 so far? >> I think I'm I I think I'm actually really surprised by just how closely
it's matched 2018. Like I keep thinking all right, like it'll deviate at some point and throw us a curveball that that is is tough to you know, sort of that's tough to foresee, but then so far it keeps
playing out in the same way. And uh I could I could share my screen quickly talking about. Like if you look at at the 2018 bear market compared to the 2026 bear market, they're actually really similar. And I'll actually talk
about where I think they're going to deviate. Um reason >> you're saying that this year playing out very similar to 2018 and obviously, you know, after a
big dip in the beginning of 2018 and you know, ranging near the lows, we saw that one final capitulation, you know, something a lot of people weren't weren't calling for. And is that kind of >> Right. Yeah, so the one the people the
reason why people don't think it's like 2018 is because in 2018, Bitcoin had a U fork rally and we had a rotation into high-risk assets, altcoins, right? And we had the famous alt season in late 2017, early 2018. That was around the
channel and that was when I remember watching you for the very first time, half before I started mine. But if you look at the chart here, like you you see like if I were to draw a line at like 126 or 12,600,
a line at like 126 or 12,600, this this little move right here by Bitcoin is the reason why it feels so much different than than 2018. Because if Bitcoin had just topped out at a a 12,600 back then, look at the
similarities. Look at So, you had you had a major low in February. And then you had a higher low. Sorry, let me fix that line. So, you had your first low in February.
And I'll draw that line out. So, first low here, February 2018. March and early April. And in 2026, it's the same thing, right? We had a low in February. And then we printed a higher low in late
From there, Bitcoin rallied up to its 200-day moving the daily so I can pull up the daily moving average. Bitcoin rallied up to that 200-day moving average in May of 2018. And
that's exactly where it rallied up to in May of 2026, right? In the that 200-day moving average. And then where it gets really eerily similar is that the low that was formed in June. You see how we swept the February low in 2018, we swept
>> Mhm. >> The low that formed was at 5,700 when we swept it. And we swept it in late June, early July time frame. And the low that we just formed in late June, early July of 2026
June, early July of 2026 was 57,000. So, like I keep thinking tracking. And I keep It's one of those things where I'll like I'll make these videos and be like, all right, if it's going to play out like this,
it's going to put a low in February, higher low in March or April, lower high in May, and then a lower low in June. But it's like I don't necessarily Like I say that this is what's going to happen, but then it keeps playing out
that way. So, I would say that's been the biggest surprise is just how similar it is. And one quick way to visualize just how similar it is is if you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 and
compare it to 2018, you can see how the lows line up, right? And even the high the high in May how it lines up and even the low that we just had, the daily close literally lines up with the low we had in um you know, in 2018. And you can
see that after that low we had a rally for a while for like a week and a half and then we had a pullback and then we had a larger rally that then took Bitcoin back up to the 200-day moving average. Now, what's interesting is when
Bitcoin went up to the 200-day moving average in July, it gave all those gains back in August, right? And and also in 2022 August and then all those gains were given back in August and and and
September. So, that's where I think we are right now. We're we're like right after this massive capitulation into June-July. Usually there's some type of counter move in in July, but it's it's
relatively short-lived and then it it then leads to the final low that of the year. That doesn't mean you have to wait until Q4 to start buying Bitcoin. Normally, if you just DCA Bitcoin, that's what I do in the second
half of midterm years, it works out pretty well as long as you can stomach short-term downside. But I think from an academic perspective like I I look at this and I'm like, you know what? It's played out like the exact same way it
did back then just with less volatility. Perhaps it it might just continue and where I think it will deviate and I could be wrong about this. You're this year. You're already answering all the follow-up questions.
mind, right? I hear it twin. I'm a twin. You know, we read each other's mind. what normally happens is or what happened in 2018 is that the final capitulation didn't happen until like November, right?
I think this time this pattern will deviate because I think the final low will probably occur sooner than it did in 2018. And the reason I say that is because in 2018 the low was December, but the high was
also December. This time the high was October. And also last cycle the high was November and the low was November. So, as as silly and as stupid as it is, like what if what if these simple time-based indicators that's like the
best we have, you know, and and so I could see it deviating and putting in a low, you know, earlier, maybe like late September, early October is about when about like if you look at weekly candles, like how long the bear
Um what the last one this one over here from the last cycle took was that like 54 weeks? And the one in 2017 took
So, give or take, like I'm not going to measure it exactly, but I mean around a year. And we're currently at 38 or so. So, I mean like 52 weeks would 38 or so. So, I mean like 52 weeks would put you in in October. Um you know, if
it's 51, it could be like late September. If it's 54 or 55, it could be late October, early November, but I I think it's around that time. >> Three-month warning, Altcoin Daily audience. It is now that you show me all
this, it is amazing how closely it has like followed 2018. And, you know, I guess you know, I guess what I'm wondering next is if true, if there's one more capitulation left, what is your price target? And what percent
already in? >> It's a good question. So, what I like to look at I like to look at a lot of the on-chain indicators to sort of suggest like like if the low was actually in. And there's a few like that are I think
are really good and um and I know a lot of people kind of criticize some of the stuff, but I'm just going with like what the market has done previously, right? for instance. >> And by the way, guys, you can get access
to any of these indicators linked below. >> Right. So, if you look at like the the NVRVZ score, it's the market cap minus the real realized cap divided by the standard deviation of the market cap. If you If you plot that out,
historically, the lows occur after the NVRVZ score resets below zero, right? Again, I'm not suggesting people need to wait for it to go below zero to buy, but
that's historically what has kind of reset the market is the NVRVZ score going back below zero. Um another one that actually already triggered, which market cycle bottom being in, um then I like in the first half of the
year, I think it made sense to ignore it, the supply of Bitcoin in profit and normally, you wait for them to cross before you start calling market cycle bottoms. The only the one of the ones that you
could look at to I guess try to look at at where a low of like the um Or sorry, this is more of a time base, the low, and and you can kind of see like where we are with respect to the
last two cycles. But if you look at the um the realized price. So, if you look at the realized price, this green line, the realized price, this green line, historically, Bitcoin goes below that in
sometime in the midterm year. So, in 2014, we first went below it in October. In 2018, we didn't go below it until November. So, and in June last cycle, we went below it in June. So, others have people
yet, therefore this time is different." But in two of the past three midterm years, we didn't even go below it until October or November. So, I think you have to look at that as a potential outcome here. And the realized
potential outcome here. And the realized price is at around 53K. So, if you go below 53K, let's say you go into like the high 40s or low 50s, then you've at least checked that box. The worst-case scenario,
The worst-case scenario, >> Two the base case is high 40s, low 50s. >> I think that's like a I think that's a like a reasonable hey, I don't want to get too doomerish, you know? And I would say worst-case
scenario for me, like so I would say the floor for the year. because any anytime you say the ceiling or the floor, the market loves to just like prove those people wrong. But the level at which I could no longer with a
level at which I could no longer with a clear conscience like have a bearish you know, strand of hair would be if you were to go below the balance price. And the reason I say that is because all prior market cycle bottoms for Bitcoin
occurred below the balance price. So, if you look at like the the bear market we had in 2011, uh we went below the balance price. If you look at the one we had in 2013, 2014, going into early 2015, we went below the balance price.
Same thing in 2018, and even in 2020, you can see how we wick just below the balance price before the market cycle bottom was in. And even in 2022, we went below the balance price on on one of those intraday wicks. Like you can see
It doesn't look like we went below it here, but we did because the balance here, but we did because the balance price was 15.65k, and the wick, as I'm sure you remember, it took us down to like 15.4k, 15.4, 15.5. So, we did take
it out. Now, this time, we might not take it out because if you were to take the price of Bitcoin divided by that metric, you can see that each cycle, we've kind of recently we've gone not as far below it. So, maybe this is the
just to give people an idea of where it is, it's around 40k, right? And it's like a little bit less than 40k. That would be kind of the the spot where bearish. That would be the point of like if if it happens tomorrow, I'm not going
to sit here and and hammer down that it has to be October, November, September, about all that stuff. It's time to pivot and and and just put on your, you know, your bull your bullish bias and forget about everything else. And what's really
interesting is if you compare, you know, 2018 to 2026, and let's say 2018 6K was the Um Ultimately, the actual low occurred
between 3 and 4,000 dollars, right? That's where it actually occurred. I've also made a lot of comparisons to 2019 as I've come on your channel many times. We've talked about the comparison between this bull market to 2019. And
some of the comparisons include the fact that in 2019, we had three rate cuts. In 2025, we had three rate cuts. In 2019, the Fed ended quantitative tightening in August. Bitcoin topped 2 months before that in in June. In 2025, the Fed ended
QT in December. Bitcoin topped 2 months before in October. In 2019, there was no rotation into altcoins and Bitcoin dominance went up for that entire bull right? No rotation into altcoins and Bitcoin dominance was going up.
So, if you want to make the 2019 comparison, well, we were also holding coincidentally, the low ended up being between 3 and 4. So, I would say that between 3 and 4. So, I would say that like that would be worst-case scenario
had me back on the channel and we're at those prices, I couldn't I couldn't sit this indicator or that indicator." And be like, "No, like everything's fully reset. If we're going to go lower than that, then we're basically breaking
every indicator we have at that point." >> And you said less than 40K. >> That would be what would fully reset every on-chain indicator. It like every take a lot of the on-chain indicators and I
have this like on-chain risk metric for them. And it includes a lot of the main sure have have heard of like I mean it it includes the NVRVZ score, uh the Puell Multiple, transaction fees, terminal price, minor cap to thermal cap
ratio, market cap to thermal cap ratio. You can even add in here uh the R huddle that we talked about as well. And you can see that normally the lows um near
the end of midterm years occur after this metric goes below about 0.1 risk. And we're getting there. Like we're you can see that if we were to have one more countertrend rally into say like late July, early August, and if we were to
get one final drop, you could argue that that would basically fully reset everything. Um So again, I I don't know exactly. I I do think that you know, anything below 60K long-term is probably going to be looked
at as a as a good deal, but in the short-term, it's hard to know, right? Like I mean, if you bought Bitcoin at 20K in 2022, you probably felt really dumb it later that year when it was trading for 15K. I
feel like a big deal, but back then it was for a lot of people. Same thing in 2018. I mean, I'm sure you were probably buying Bitcoin in 2018 at 6K, and I was. I was also buying altcoins back then, believe it or not. Um and then when the
market went down here, I felt like a you know? can see that it didn't really matter. So, this is one of those things where like being right and making money are two very different things. You okay?
people that choose not to buy Bitcoin at all until they think the bottom is in, that everyone's made in the past, and that's they they're right about the bear market, but then they never actually flip bullish, you know? So, okay,
you actually make any money? And I think that's the biggest lesson that a lot of that's the biggest lesson that a lot of people um and I including myself have cycles. And so, that's the only thing I would say is,
you know what? You You have to time the bottom exactly. You can just DCA on some cadence that you think makes sense for you and then go live your life, go watch the World Cup, go do something else and then come back later and hopefully the
think the biggest critics of the four-year cycle will likely turn into the biggest cheerleaders of it in in just a few months. >> And did did we get uh your number on percent chance the bottom might be in?
>> It's a good question. I I think it's it's probably higher than I give it credit for. Um I I would say that the the percent I cuz I think some of the there are some more on-chain indicators and we normally
get that final drop at the end of the year. So, I'd probably say like 40 to uh that it's in. And and if I had to make the case for it, like if you if you forced me to say Ben, well, be the play devil's advocate
know, I'd basically say, well, if this truly is like 2019, we did find support at around 6K before getting this big rally up. So, is there a chance that what we're seeing right
now like is there a chance that like this little box here is the same thing as this one? Where we get a big rally out of it, but instead of having a massive recession right away that's induced by a pandemic,
say like 2028 or you know, or just if it's it's if it's far off in the future. So, I guess that that would be the way in which this view could be wrong. But, the reason why I don't put too much weight on that view is
I like to believe that that narrative follows price, not the other way around. And in both cases, whether you look at 2018 or 2019, we still ended up getting the final drop below that $6,000 level, which is why I
I eventually we likely will have that final drop below the 60k level and I think what's happening is we're essentially getting squeezed between, band, which is the 21-week EMA, the 20-week SMA, and that 200-week moving
average. So, you could see it do something like this where it comes back sort of the second week of July, that's what happened in 2018. Perhaps you go back up to the bear market resistance band by like late July, early August.
You come back down, they get squeezed together, you get your final drop. Everyone freaks out, you know, and and then we set the market cycle bottom and then we go back up. And by the way, if you need a narrative, one of the
reasons historically why Bitcoin goes back down near the end of midterm years is it it usually corresponds with a correction in the stock market at the end of midterm year. So, just uh I know this is not the topic of the video, but
it is it's all related. If you look at 2018, there is a correction in stocks at correction in stocks at the end of the year. 2022, the same thing. You had your another correction at the end of the year and even in 2014, you had a small
and then a larger drop near the end of the year in terms of in terms of percent. So, usually it's a 10 to 20% drop in stocks that starts in either August or September of midterm years and then that within that within that drop,
that's where Bitcoin puts in the market cycle bottom. I don't think, you know, Saylor selling or anything like that. I mean, that stuff just simply it's a narrative that's going to scare people. I think if you just look at at what the
charts say that, look, there's a chance we get one more drop on the back of a drop in stocks and then that will allow Bitcoin to form the market cycle bottom. about rate rate hikes right now. Like people are are are pricing in rate hikes
If you do get a rate hike or just a scare of one, the stock market dropping 10% to 20% would probably be enough to completely pivot what the market's expectations are of monetary policy, and that would probably be a bullish thing
could argue that crypto has been so weak is because you know, we there just because the stock market keeps going to new all-time highs. >> Mhm. Yeah, definitely. I could see that. Big market drop, then rate cuts, then
Then, you're starting a crypto conference. It's in Miami, November conference. It's in Miami, November 21st, investing through the cycles. Um tell us about that. Um 10% off tickets below prices increase closer to
tell us the impetus for why you want to start a crypto conference and what >> Well, I would say it's more than just a crypto conference. It's basically like, somewhere, and and you know, midterm you're stuck for crypto. Like, you've
them, we both know they they just they've never been good, and no amount of mental gymnastics has changed that. Um despite us despite everyone wanting it to be different. And so, the argument is like, look,
experience bear markets, right? And money's made anyways is in the bear market, the people that stick around. And so, the argument is let's just try to get a conference together where we
different cycles. What are the you know, what are the things to be looking at any given time? And and kind of just respecting the cycles for what they are something they're not. Not pretending that it has to play out a different way
because of some prevailing narrative at the time, but to just respect it and to focus on it from a more data-driven perspective. So, the goal of the conference is to be a lot less hype, which maybe is somewhat antithetical to
like a lot of conferences are really about hype and getting people excited, but the point is to just meet, you know, people that really value that stuff. Not people that are always right, because no one's always right, right? But to just
something. a lot of different views, not just my probably would disagree with some of my views, and then form their own thesis on
how they want to, you know, invest through the different cycles. So, that's one, so we'll we'll we'll see how it goes. I'm I'm pretty optimistic about it, but it's a it's a pretty big undertaking. I've I've come to find out
so hopefully it goes well. >> I I know it's going to go well, and I they're going and getting tickets and and new speakers added every day. But that, you know, you wanted to take on the responsibility of starting a
conference, but, you know, really cool. I'm bullish on it. Um Ben, let's say a quick goodbye, and then I want to still take a few minutes of your time because Altcoin Daily channel members. One final question, biggest piece of advice for
going into 2027. But before that, Ben, final thoughts for the Altcoin Daily >> Yeah, I would just say have a plan and stick to it, and ignore all the noise to that every time I come on your channel, but um it's true, right? And
narratives earlier this year, what were they? Like Jane Street and and what Yeah, I mean all this other stuff and the the ISM, the money supply, like none >> Just >> Yeah, and I I I try to tell people that.
I'm like, "That doesn't matter." Um and and what I would argue is that there's a good chance that a lot of the bearish narratives next year aren't going to matter because the market will then be bullish again. So,
data, ignore everything else, and you're probably going to outperform most people. >> Love it. And for our members, we're switching over to members right now. The final question, Ben. This is for, you
multiple cycles. So feel free to really give people the inside baseball or you know just specifically understanding that we're transitioning out of the bear market of 2027. Biggest piece of advice for investing
and trading in crypto going in to this next year. And then what's a good next year. And then what's a good strategy how to sell?