--- title: 'How to Win at Parlays (Psychology Explained) | Sports Betting Strategy' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=qL9s2qu1KMg' video_id: 'qL9s2qu1KMg' date: 2026-08-19 duration_sec: 538 channel: 'OddsJam: Sports Betting, Free Picks & Best Bets' --- # How to Win at Parlays (Psychology Explained) | Sports Betting Strategy > Source: [How to Win at Parlays (Psychology Explained) | Sports Betting Strategy](https://youtube.com/watch?v=qL9s2qu1KMg) ## Summary The video presents a systematic approach to profitable parlay betting, emphasizing the importance of mathematical edges over traditional trend analysis. The creator demonstrates a practical example using OddsJam's Plus EV tool, explains the psychological pitfalls that lead bettors to lose, and outlines a consistent strategy based on Kelly Criterion wagering and multi-leg parlays. ### Key Points - **Introduction to Plus EV Parlay Betting** [00:01] — The creator introduces the concept of using OddsJam's Plus EV tool to find bets with a mathematical edge, showing two WNBA plays with an 8.5% and over 10% edge respectively. - **Calculating Fair Win Probability** [00:31] — The fair win probability for each leg is calculated (45.3% and 47.6%), then multiplied to get a combined parlay probability of 21.56%. - **Using Kelly Criterion for Bet Sizing** [01:10] — With odds of +459 and a fair win probability of 21.56%, the Kelly Criterion calculator suggests wagering $90 (quarter Kelly), rounded to $100. - **Optimal Odds and Edge Criteria** [01:39] — The creator prefers plays with odds between -175 and +125, a minimum EV edge of 2%, and ideally 3% or higher, using Pinnacle as the sharp sportsbook reference. - **Common Mistake: Focusing on Picks vs. Price** [02:24] — Most bettors focus on player trends (e.g., last 10 games) rather than the price. Hit rates are backward-looking and irrelevant; probabilities are forward-looking and account for current conditions. - **Sportsbooks Already Price in Information** [03:22] — Sportsbooks have millions of dollars in algorithms that already incorporate matchup history, weather, and umpire tendencies into the odds, making trend-based research redundant. - **The Spiral of Losing Parlays** [04:05] — A losing parlay leads to frustration, overthinking, and erratic strategy changes, resulting in inconsistency and no clear profitability assessment. - **Accepting Parlay Failure** [04:43] — The creator shares his own stats: 459 parlays in 90 days, losing 352 (77%), yet still achieving over 6% ROI. Key mindset: parlay failure is unavoidable and acceptable. - **Why Two and Three-Leg Parlays Are Best** [05:22] — A three-leg parlay at -110 each gives +596 odds (14.5% win probability), while a two-leg parlay gives +264.5 (27.5% win probability), reducing variance and increasing consistency. - **Stick to Traditional Parlays** [06:34] — Traditional parlays (across different games) are fairly priced, unlike same-game parlays (SGPs) which often have worse odds. The creator recommends sticking to traditional parlays. - **Complete Profitable Parlay System** [07:27] — Step 1: Use OddsJam's Plus EV tool to find edges. Step 2: Build traditional parlays with 2-3 legs. Step 3: Ignore trends and hot streaks. Step 4: If a parlay loses, reset and repeat without spiraling. - **OddsJam Settings for Parlay Calculation** [08:13] — Users should enable the probability column in OddsJam settings, multiply the probabilities of each leg, and use a Kelly Criterion calculator with their bankroll to determine bet size. ### Conclusion Profitable parlay betting is not about picking winners but about finding mathematical edges and managing bankroll with discipline. Accepting that most parlays will lose, while focusing on positive expected value, leads to long-term profitability. ## Transcript completely backwards and it's destroying their bankrolls. Let me show you the right way. Over here on OddsJam's Plus EV tool, I have already found two plays for tonight's WNBA game locked up, loaded, ready to go that have an edge. Mercury minus one and the over 170 and a half between the Storm and the Wings. Now, de-vigging to Pinnacle, a very sharp sportsbook, you can see that we're looking at an 8 and a half and over 10% edge on both [music] of these parlays. I can place this over at BetRivers or where I'm at out here in Arizona, a sportsbook called Desert Diamond. Now, because this is a two-leg parlay, I need each leg to hit. I need to know what the fair win probability is so I can find out how much money I should bet on this parlay. So, the fair win probability for the Mercury minus one is 45.3. I just move my decimal point over two spots, so 0.453. Multiply this by the over 70 and a half, Multiply this by the over 70 and a half, which is 47.6 or 0.476. [music] My fair win probability is 21.56%. decimal point, move it back over two spots to the right. Over here at Desert Diamond, you can see that I have this slip loaded up and I'm receiving odds of plus 459. I come over to a Kelly Criterion calculator. I like to wager with quarter Kelly. I'm receiving odds of 459. My fair win probability on this of 459. My fair win probability on this parlay is 21.56%. and a half percent edge on this parlay." I should wager off of my bankroll $90. I'm simply going to round this up to an even $100 and place this two-leg parlay over here at Desert Diamond. And bam, we lock this value in, placing the my bankroll, and [music] taking advantage of this edge. When I'm placing my parlays, I like to go after plays that have a minus 175 to plus 125 odds that have a minus 175 to plus 125 odds range. My minimum EV edge is 2%. I would prefer anything that has a 3% edge or higher. Naturally, I'm just using Pinnacle as my sharp sports book and on my power default method, feel free to use worst case as well. And then I like to go after main markets and player props. And this is my setup using Odds Jam's plus EV tool when I'm cooking up my parlay slips. Over the last 3 months, I've made over $1,200 betting on parlays using this exact recipe that I just showed you in that example. Here's where most bettors go wrong. They focus more on the pick rather than the price. You've seen this before. A better looking into a player's last five or 10 games trying to figure out if they've spotted a trend. This pitcher's got last 10 starts, so I'll definitely bet his over because 80% of the time in the last 10 games, this over has hit. But your hit rate is not a probability. Your past results don't predict future success. Hit rates are backwards looking under completely different conditions. Probabilities are forward looking accounting for today's matchup, weather, history, etc. So just because that pitcher hit seven plus strikeouts in eight of his last 10 games, doesn't mean that tonight's matchup is an automatic lock because the past results are absolutely irrelevant. You're spending hours researching useless stats that the sports books already have baked into their odds. Kyle Freeland, over four and a half strikeouts. All of these sports books and the algorithms and models that they have which they pour millions of dollars into already have this information baked [music] into the price. The matchup history, the weather, the umpire tendencies, these are already baked in. If you found value in the >> [music] >> Click that thumbs up button and tap that bell notification so you don't miss the next video that we release. And so here's what happens when your trend base parlay bets start to lose. Most better start spiraling mentally. One bad parlay turns into frustration. Frustration turns into overthinking. Overthinking turns into trying to fix everything. Bigger bets, more legs, better research. You go from competing to start performing surgery on yourself. You try one strategy, cook up a couple slips, they lose, then you just scrap that and throw it away. Then you go find somebody of money betting on parlays. You try their strategy, place one or two slips, that loses, you throw it away. And pretty soon you start just trying a bunch of different strategies where you have no consistency. Your consistency is is that you're inconsistent. So you really don't have any idea over the parlay strategies if you're profitable or not. Take a look at the screenshot that I talked about earlier. I placed 459 parlays over the last 90 days. I lost 352 of those parlays, which means that I of those parlays, which means that I only won over 23% of all the parlay slips that I put together and I still brought back an over 6% ROI. So the mindset that starts to shift everything is that parlay failure is unavoidable. I is that parlay failure is unavoidable. I know that I am going to lose roughly 75% of all my parlays that I put together. And if that's the case, I'm still very profitable. So instead of spending all your time researching information, just to show you plays that have an edge. Stack those edges together. That's how you build profitable parlays. Now, for myself, I like to stick to two and three-leg parlays, and here's why. If we go over to a parlay calculator, a three-leg parlay with each leg at minus 110 odds, we should receive roughly plus 596 odds. Well, an odds converter calculator, win probability and odds are in a marriage together. So plus 596 odds gives me just under a 14 and a half percent chance of winning that parlay. Now, if I just take out the minus 110 and let's say we want a two-leg parlay, I should get paid out at plus 264.5. So, again, coming over here, 264.5, that's a 27 and a half percent chance, which is almost double from what the three-leg parlay was. This reduces my variance. I see more consistency. And as I showed that screenshot from before, I I showed that screenshot from before, I placed 459 parlays over the last 90 days or 3 months. [music] That's 153 parlays a month or divided by, let's say, 30 days, we're looking at roughly four to five parlays a day that I'm placing. Consistency is the key. Sticking to two and three-leg parlays is going to provide you more consistent results. It's not going to make you want to change your strategy up all the time. Stick to traditional parlays. I made a video link below showing you when you you play SGPs or same-game parlays, how pricing. So, when I'm looking at the board here, I'd say, let's add the Jaylen Brunson play with the Veronica games. The sportsbooks will never rip you off when it comes to traditional parlay pricing. So, that's all I'm looking to do here. Anything that has a two, preferably three percent edge or higher. If I'm going over to Fanatics, >> this Aces play here with the Portland fire play. Maybe I'll take this other Aces play, pair it with the Sky play. These are two different games. While they're in the same league, they're different games, so you receive a fair price. Why this matters is because this allows us to take full advantage of the sportsbook. If you want to try Odds Jam one week for free and save 35% off your ends, use my code Billy35. It'll be linked in the description below. Here's my complete profitable parlay betting system. Step one, use Odds Jam's plus EV tool to find a mathematical edge. Step two, build traditional parlays with two to three legs maximum. Step three, ignore the trends, the last five games, the hot streaks, ignore all of it. And then step four, if the parlay loses, which it will at some point, reset and repeat and don't spiral. Stick to this strategy. Last but not least, you saw at the beginning of the video how I was together. For my Odds Jam users, come over here to the filter section. Come down here to settings and make sure this probability button here is over on the right-hand side so that you can see the blue. This will pop open then this specific column where you're going to be able to multiply that percentage compared to two or three legs or however many legs that you have, multiply those together, you'll find out your fair win probability, put that into a Kelly Criterion calculator with your bankroll updated, and it'll tell you exactly how When it comes to profitable sports betting, there's a lot of different strategies and tools available, but which one makes you the most money? here that's going to break down the four different tools on Odds Jam and based off of your work schedule and your ROI and what you're looking to achieve with sports betting, you can find out which tool best works for you.