---
title: 'So the Fed thinks we might go extinct… 🤔'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=QhOCqU3FSQg'
video_id: 'QhOCqU3FSQg'
date: 2026-08-06
duration_sec: 110
---

# So the Fed thinks we might go extinct… 🤔

> Source: [So the Fed thinks we might go extinct… 🤔](https://youtube.com/watch?v=QhOCqU3FSQg)

## Summary

The video discusses a chart published by the Federal Reserve of Dallas that models GDP per capita under three AI scenarios: an upside where AI boosts the economy exponentially, a middle scenario where AI is overhyped, and a downside where GDP per capita falls to zero because humanity goes extinct. The creator expresses shock and concern, highlighting the unprecedented nature of a central bank publishing an extinction scenario and the implied risk assessment.

### Key Points

- **The Fed's AI chart** [00:02] — The Federal Reserve of Dallas published a chart modeling GDP per capita under different AI scenarios, including one where GDP goes to zero because humanity goes extinct.
- **Three scenarios** [00:17] — Scenario 1: AI does everything great, GDP per capita goes exponential. Scenario 2: AI is overhyped, things stay the same. Scenario 3: humanity goes extinct, GDP per capita goes to zero.
- **Unprecedented chart** [00:44] — The creator notes they have never seen a chart from the Federal Reserve that includes an extinction scenario, calling it both stupid and terrifying.
- **Risk assessment** [01:12] — Assuming equal probability for each scenario, there is a one in three chance of extinction, which the creator finds unacceptable.
- **Questioning AI's worth** [01:38] — The creator asks whether AI is worth the risk and whether we should turn it off while we still can, expressing uncertainty about the ability to do so.

### Conclusion

The video highlights the Federal Reserve's acknowledgment of AI's potential existential risks, urging viewers to consider whether the benefits outweigh the dangers.

## Transcript

the stupidest, or maybe the most exciting chart that I have ever seen. This is an actual chart that the Federal Reserve of Dallas just published. And it models out how the economy, measured by GDP per capita,
might perform in different AI scenarios. Scenario one, basically the upside, AI does everything great that people say it has the potential to do, GDP per capita goes exponential, and we all live happily ever after. Scenario two, which
is the yellow line, is basically like everything about AI is overhyped. And scenario three is we all die. The reason GDP per capita goes to zero on this chart is cuz we're all dead. I look at a lot of charts,
a lot of them, and this this is new. Never seen a chart before that says we're going extinct, and especially coming from the Federal Reserve. On one Like, why do they even need to make this, right? They're saying, "Okay, in
one case, things go amazing. In another case, things go terrible. In a third case, things kind of stay the same." Basically saying, "We have no clue that's how we all feel. Probably didn't need a chart to show us that. But on the
other hand, maybe this is the most terrifying chart I've ever seen in my life. Let's just for a second assume that each of these scenarios have equal probability. So, basically there's just a one in three chance that we're all
going extinct. I don't like those odds, not at all. Like, if there's a one in three chance that we're all going to die because of AI, but there's only a one in worthwhile, turn it off, right? I truly don't know
what to make of this. What do you think? Is this worth the risk? Is AI worth the risk? Or should we just turn it off while we still can? I I think. I don't know. Can we turn it off? I have no idea.