---
title: 'The Kalshi Bet That''s Basically Free Money'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=lWB1VmwMbl4'
video_id: 'lWB1VmwMbl4'
date: 2026-07-31
duration_sec: 698
---

# The Kalshi Bet That's Basically Free Money

> Source: [The Kalshi Bet That's Basically Free Money](https://youtube.com/watch?v=lWB1VmwMbl4)

## Summary

In this video, sports handicapper Frank of Alpha M Athlete Sports argues that most bettors are approaching sports betting the wrong way. Instead of predicting who will win, he advocates betting on who won't win, using prediction markets like Kalshi where 'not' outcomes are available. He backs the strategy with real examples, including Chris Gotterup and a claimed free-money edge of +6%.

### Key Points

- **The wrong way everyone bets** [00:01] — Bettors usually wager on outcomes that will happen — a player hitting a home run or a team winning the Super Bowl. These are hard to predict and low-probability events.
- **Flip the script** [00:16] — Instead, bet on the opposite: a player NOT hitting a home run or NOT winning a tournament. These outcomes are far easier to predict and offer a more reliable edge.
- **The ignored strategy** [02:21] — Frank says this approach has been 'hiding in plain sight' and most bettors ignore it. He introduces LineMaker AI, a sports betting chatbot that can verify whether a 'not' bet is worth placing.
- **Why people ignore it: excitement** [03:15] — The first reason is entertainment. Watching someone not win is boring, but winning consistently is more profitable than being entertained.
- **Why people ignore it: odds** [04:44] — The second reason is odds. Odds on an event not occurring are higher because they are more likely, creating what Frank calls 'free money' on prediction markets.
- **Real example: Gotterup not winning** [06:31] — Chris Gotterup's odds to not win the Rocket Mortgage Classic were -1800 (94% implied probability). Since he had never won the tournament, Frank calls the true probability 100%, yielding a +6% edge.
- **Kalshi examples and volume** [08:29] — On Kalshi, you can bet on 'not win' options for each golfer. The volume pool is ~$53 million, so large wagers are possible. A $20,000 bet on Gotterup not winning returns roughly $900.
- **Other markets: NFL and college football** [09:35] — Example bets include the Chargers not winning the Super Bowl ($20k returns ~$800) and a team not winning the national championship ($20k returns ~$1,600).
- **No-sweat betting and bankroll caveat** [10:16] — Predicting what won't happen removes the stress of sweating out bets. However, Frank warns this works best with bankroll — turning $100 into $10,000 would take five years.

### Conclusion

Frank's core message is that by shifting from predicting positive outcomes to negative ones, sports bettors can consistently find positive-edge wagers on prediction markets like Kalshi — provided they have the capital to make the modest returns worthwhile.

## Transcript

has been completely wrong? The bets that we look to make every single day are the wrong ones. And there's a specific market that you could be playing that's advantage. And I'm going to show you guys exactly what that is in this video.
Every day that we look to bet on sports, what do we normally look for? We look for what is going to happen. We're trying to predict what is going to happen, whether it be in a game or a player prop or any sort. We're trying to
predict exactly what's going to happen and what outcome we're going to get. So, for example, how many times do we look for this? Look. For, let's say in baseball, okay? Who's going to hit a home run, okay? Let's say in golf, who's
going to win the tournament? Or tennis, who's going to win the tournament, We're looking for those type of bets, right? That's what the normal public bet is is like, who's going to get this done, okay? Whether it be in baseball,
golf, tennis, the NFL, who's going to win the Super Bowl? Who's going to win Championship, right? That's what we're always looking for. We're looking for who's going to do something, whether it be a player or a team. But, what if the
whole time we've been completely wrong? We should be actually looking at the opposite of all of this. Because, let's just think about common sense here, okay? How hard is it for an MLB player to hit a home run? It's
incredibly hard. It's hard for them just to get a hit, right? But, that's run. In golf, how hard is it for a player to win an actual tournament? It's incredibly hard. And it's very hard to be able to choose which player is going
is it to, you know, pick who's going to golf, but it's still pretty hard to be able to pick who's going to win a specific tournament. Now, let's go ahead and flip this. Watch how easy this
becomes when we flip the script. Let's go with the MLB, okay? How about go with the MLB, okay? How about choosing a player to not hit a home run, okay? How about in golf, choosing a player to not win a tournament? Tennis,
a player to not win the tournament. How about in the NFL? A team to not win the AFC Championship. A team to not win the Super Bowl. A team to not win the NFC Championship. How much easier is it for that? We've completely flipped the
script here now. It's pretty easy any day pick a player that's not going to hit a home run in the MLB. In golf, it's pretty easy to pick a player that's not going to win the tournament for that weekend. In tennis, same thing. It's
going to win the tournament. Now, this has been hiding in plain sight for every single sports better that's out there. But you've all completely ignored it. reasons why you guys have all ignored. You guys want to make sure what outcome
the correct bet or not. All you have to do is type it into the LineMaker AI, which is a sports betting chatbot that will tell you exactly if it is a good bet or not. So, you could literally ask it, is Chris Gotterup a good bet to not
win the Rocket Mortgage Classic this weekend? And it'll tell you exactly if having to do any manual research or going to look for other things that take you hours among hours of time. You guys want a free trial for that so that way
the power of the LineMaker sports betting chatbot, make sure you guys click the link in the description. Number one is going to be excitement. It's not exciting, right, to watch a guy not to hit a home run or not win a golf
tournament or a team to not win the Super Bowl. It's not exciting, right? That's not fun to watch, okay? But here's the difference between fun and winning. Fun, you're looking to be entertained, right? Making money is not
always exciting. And quite frankly, the boring way of doing things is actually about when you go to a 9-to-5 job. It's boring, right? It's repetitive. boring, but what does it do? It makes you money, right? It's not exciting to
do. What is something exciting to do? It's to go to the bar with your friends what do you do? You end up spending money and you lose money for the excitement. So, you're trading money for excitement. There's no difference when
it comes to sports betting here. And the sports books know this. That's why they know that sports bettors are going to look for a outcome to happen rather than they want to be entertained and they want the excitement. That's the mental
aspect behind what I'm teaching you today, okay? You have to be able to flip the script. If you flip the script, now everything's completely changed. The not get the dopamine rush that you're looking for, but guess what? The winning
will be there and follows winning is money. And that's the only thing you get into the second reason people ignore this. The odds on an event to not occur are usually higher and they're going to be
sense, right? For something to not happen, it's more likely that it's not happen. Let's say for a home run for an example. You take somebody batting 180 on the entire season and they've had one home run and we're already at more
are the odds they're going to get a home run in that game? Yeah, the odds are probably pretty high, right? Cuz they're not going to get a home run in that game. But, here's the thing. There's free money literally sitting on the
always available at every single sports book, okay? But, I have found that it is available at prediction markets like Calshi. It is 100% available for every single type of bet. There's two ways you can go, which is yes or no. So, you
or you could predict for it to not happen. And I'm going to show you guys little little and I'm going to show you the examples of what it looks like in there's free money literally just sitting on the table for some of these
things that you need to look at, okay? The odds might be high, but I'm telling money. There's free money literally sitting on the table, whether it be a couple hundred bucks or, you know, depending on how much money you're
thousand dollars. It's just free money that's just sitting there, okay? Because think of it this way. Again, how easy is it for somebody to not catch a touchdown pass? It's way easier for it to not happen than for it to happen. And all
implied probability and the true probability jive and will give us a plus edge. That's all you have to do, okay? As long as that makes sense, then you got free money literally. You could print free money. And again, when you're
for example, you are not going to get limited because it's peer-to-peer. money. You're taking the public's money who likes picking the long shots of who's going to hit a home run or who's going to win a tournament. Now, let me
here of what I'm talking about, okay? Let's take a look at a golf tournament, okay? We're going to look at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. For somebody to win the tournament, we're going to look at Chris Gotterup. His odds to not win the
Chris Gotterup. His odds to not win the tournament right now are minus 1,800. That's an implied probability of 94%. But, guess what? He's never, in his history of playing golf on the PGA tour, ever won this tournament. So, what do we
got there? We have a 100% true probability, giving us a plus 6% edge. So, what does that mean? That means for you to pick him to not win the tournament. It's literally that simple
there. There's no reason to overthink it. It's the easiest way to be able to bet on sports and be able to find free money consistently. All you have to do is worry about an outcome to not happen, okay? To not happen, remember that. I'm
not. Stop worrying about something that's going to happen. Stop trying to predict the future of what is going to happen. Because guess what? When it know exactly what's going to happen.
Just that's just the way that it is. The easiest way to do this is to predict for it to not happen. Now, like I said, the biggest problem here is not a lot of reason why they don't offer that is because what I just told you, it's free
something that's free money? All right, most of your sports books, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics, all that stuff, they're not going to offer you a an option to not have an outcome happen, okay? That's just that's not going to
free money. They're not going to do that. So, where you have to go for this stuff is prediction markets like Kalshi, like Polymarket. That's where you have to go. Now, let's dive into Kalshi so I can show you guys example of what this
go ahead and take a look. For example, what I was just using for example, which is the Rocket Classic, Rocket Mortgage Classic. Look at the options here for players to not win the tournament. Literally just free money sitting there,
won this tournament and they're not going to win this tournament this week. So, what you have to do is literally go through and just print money. Like I said, look, you can go through and just whoever has never won this tournament,
You can put as much money as you want cuz look at the volume pool here as well cuz look at the volume pool here as well on Kalshi. 52, almost 53 million dollars in the volume pool. So, what does that mean? Means you can wager however much
money you want on these certain things, okay? Because like I said, 100% is 100%. That's just plain and simple. So, let's go here. If we're going to put 20,000 on this, yeah, you're only making what? $900, but that's a free $900. Who
guy's not going to win the tournament. Let's think about something else here. let's see the Super Bowl here. Who's not going to win the Super Bowl, all right? Let's just throw it out there. Chargers. Chargers ain't going to win the Super
They're not. They're not going to win the Super Bowl. 20,000 get you another 800 bucks. It's free money, okay? It's free money that's out there for events college football here. We got college football coming up. Let's see exactly
national championship winner here. All right. Let's go through exa- example win back-to-back, right? They're not going to win back-to-back. It's just not going to happen. Another one here. 20,000 on that gets you $1,600. $1,600
guaranteed that it's not going to happen. This is what I'm saying. It's way easier to predict who what is not going to happen rather than what is easy. We've been looking at things wrong the whole entire time cuz we're sitting
here trying to predict the future even though it could still work out, okay? I've created that work for you to be able to pre- predict outcomes to actually happen in certain sports. But the stress is off the table when you're
picking for things to not happen. Okay? Why pick for Why Why try to sit there and sweat something out when you don't need to? And it's as easy as well, this going to make money on it. It's that simple. And just like that you've
transitioned from sweating out bets and worrying about you hitting your seven-leg parlay and everything like that to no sweat and literally just consistently seem to win every single time you make and place a bet?
because I flipped the script. Instead of trying to predict outcomes to happen, I'm predicting them to not occur. Which is just common sense. It really is. When sense and it's the easier route to take. Now, if you have no money and you're
$10,000, obviously you can't go that route, right? Because that's not going to happen unless it's going to take you five years to be able to take $100 to $10,000 in predicting outcomes to not happen. But if you have money and you're
looking for an actual investment on how to do this the right way and how you without sweating it out, what I just taught you is going to be the exact As always guys, I'm Frank from Alpha M Athlete Sports. I'll see you guys in the
Athlete Sports. I'll see you guys in the next video. Till then, I'm out.