[00:01] Germany will soon crash into the consequences of a fertility crisis made much worse by the mismanagement of the boomer generation. The demographic collapse tearing up the generational contract may soon destroy one of Germany's greatest achievements, its welfare state.
[00:17] Millennials Gen Z and younger are left with a huge mess they somehow need to sort while they're outvoted by the grey bloc making the decisions for them. What happened?
[00:30] Population collapse Germany was among the first countries to industrialize, and so its fertility rates dropped early in the 20th century.
[00:42] But for 55 years, they've been below replacement, at 1.4 children per woman in 2025. Compared to South Korea, this sounds almost amazing, but it still means population collapse.
[00:54] If fertility stays at 1.4, then 100 Germans will have 70 kids. When those grow up, they'll have 49 kids, who'll then have 34 kids, who'll have 24. A 76 drop within four generations Many people think there are too many humans anyway so what the big deal Well at the same time people started living much much longer So we have a fatal mix of way more grannies and way fewer babies
[01:21] The real crisis German millennials, Gen Z and younger will have to live through is the massive shift in population composition and the transition period. In 2026, Germany is already one of the oldest countries in the world,
[01:33] with a median age of over 45. Almost two in five Germans are over 50, almost one in four is older than 65. Only one in eight is a child under 14.
[01:45] Despite its industrial production declining, suffocating bureaucracy and little economic growth, Germany's system is still chugging along and it remains one of the richest countries. The country still has a big population and a big workforce, along with generous social benefits and pension payouts.
[02:01] payouts. But soon, the reality of demographics and boomer mismanagement will hit Germany like a freight train. Population crash means that a society and culture loses more than
[02:13] just people The systems and countries we built can just be downscaled Things stop working Young Germans are screwed Old ones too By 2036 13 million German baby boomers will retire This big bulge here But because they didn have nearly enough kids
[02:32] way fewer younger people will replace them. In 2030 alone, there might be millions of jobs that will be impossible to fill. Fewer people working means fewer taxes and resources for the state.
[02:44] Also, services will decline, waiting times will increase for everything from your bags at the airport to doctor's appointments. But the much more urgent issue is retirees. Germany has a pay-as-you-go pension system, which means that about 20% of today's salaries is directly paid out to pensioners.
[03:01] This sort of worked in the 1960s, when there were five working Germans for every retiree. But in 2024, this ratio is down to about 2.5. In the 2030s, it will get closer to two workers for one pensioner.
[03:14] And about ten years after retirement, people tend to get really sick and cause the vast majority of healthcare costs. The math ain't mathing, and it actually never really did. Already in the 1970s governments began to subsidize the pension funds with tax revenue pushing the problem into the future as has more or less every single government since then Well the future is today
[03:39] In 2025, the German federal government spent roughly a quarter of its annual tax revenues to fix holes in the pension system, on top of the working population's payments. Let's say that again. One in four German tax euros is used to pay out pensions today.
[03:55] More than on education, research, infrastructure and defence combined. The wealth of the nation is redistributed from the young and the working to the old and retired.
[04:07] And as the boomers retire, this will only get worse. It's money that could be spent on things that help the young and the working part of the population. Like incentives to start a family, lower taxes, free child care,