[0:00] President Trump just announced that the
[0:02] war with Iran is over and investors are
[0:05] loving it. The stock market is rallying.
[0:07] Oil prices are falling and investors are
[0:10] hoping that the economy will be able to
[0:11] boom again. But there's more to the
[0:14] story that you want to pay attention to.
[0:16] In the past, when we've seen oil price
[0:18] shocks, the real pain to the economy
[0:20] doesn't happen while oil prices are
[0:22] high. They generally happen after the
[0:24] oil crisis ends. Not to mention the fact
[0:27] that this conflict in the Middle East
[0:29] also had an impact on China, the Federal
[0:32] Reserve Bank, and interest rates. So, in
[0:34] this video, I'm going to break down what
[0:35] might be coming now that we have the
[0:37] announcement that the war is officially
[0:40] over. So, let me break this all down. By
[0:41] the way, this is why again, today on
[0:44] June 16th, I have a live free and
[0:46] virtual investor workshop at 12:00 p.m.
[0:48] Eastern time, noon, where I'm going to
[0:50] be going over how you can find
[0:52] investment opportunities today, where
[0:54] the investment opportunities are. It's a
[0:56] free workshop. It's live. I'm going to
[0:57] be going over a lot of opportunities and
[0:59] research that a firm has been doing. So,
[1:01] if you haven't signed up yet, there's a
[1:02] limited number of people that can
[1:03] actually join me live. It's free at
[1:06] 12:00 p.m. Eastern time on June 16th.
[1:08] So, if you haven't registered, I look
[1:10] forward to seeing you there. The link is
[1:11] down in the description below.
[1:13] [clears throat] So, let me break down a
[1:14] few things that you want to understand.
[1:16] Starting with China. The reason why the
[1:19] conflict in the Middle East also
[1:20] impacted China is because the United
[1:22] States and China have been battling not
[1:25] militarily but economically. China's
[1:28] economy has been growing faster than the
[1:30] United States's economy. And there's
[1:32] been a lot of talk about the United
[1:33] States dollar losing its value, losing
[1:35] its trust while China has been working
[1:37] to buy more gold and strengthen their
[1:39] currency. Now, a lot of people will tell
[1:41] you that it's impossible to think that
[1:42] the Chinese yuan could ever replace the
[1:44] United States dollar. But just
[1:46] understand that China has made it very
[1:48] clear that they want to replace the
[1:50] United States as the world's superpower.
[1:53] Well, the reason why the United States
[1:55] and China are butdding heads
[1:57] economically, is because reports will
[2:00] show you that if China's economy keeps
[2:02] growing at the rate that it is, which is
[2:04] faster than the United States, we're
[2:06] approximately 10 years away from China
[2:08] surpassing the United States economy.
[2:11] Well, in response to that, the United
[2:14] States economy is trying to fight China.
[2:16] But they're not fighting them with tanks
[2:18] and missiles directly with China.
[2:19] Instead, the United States put tariffs
[2:21] on China as a way to not only bring
[2:24] business back to the United States, but
[2:25] also hurt China. The United States then
[2:27] attacked Venezuela and took out the
[2:30] president of Venezuela while also then
[2:33] getting in control of Venezuelan oil,
[2:35] which was previously going to China.
[2:37] Then the United States attacked Iran
[2:38] which again was selling oil to China at
[2:41] a discount and that also made it more
[2:44] difficult for China to continue
[2:45] operating their economy because China
[2:47] was relying on this cheap oil to
[2:48] continue producing the products for
[2:50] cheap. And then we have all these other
[2:53] economic things happening like the
[2:54] United States trying to build their own
[2:56] rare earth supply chain meaning trying
[2:58] to mine and produce our own metals
[3:01] without relying on China as a way to
[3:04] become more independent away from China.
[3:07] So part of this conflict had a lot to do
[3:10] with China and now the question is
[3:12] what's going to come next and is this
[3:14] enough with China? But let's go a little
[3:16] bit deeper as to what this means for the
[3:19] United States economy. Because a lot of
[3:21] people are now hoping that if this
[3:24] conflict ends, oil prices will fall
[3:26] drastically. We've already seen a huge
[3:28] drop in oil prices since President Trump
[3:30] made the announcement that the war with
[3:32] Iran is over. If oil prices fall,
[3:36] doesn't that mean that the economy is
[3:37] going to boom and inflation is going to
[3:39] get better? And there's a couple things
[3:41] that you want to understand about this.
[3:42] Let me start by taking a look at history
[3:44] because while history doesn't exactly
[3:45] repeat itself, it does rhyme. If we take
[3:48] a look at the last 11 recessions in the
[3:51] United States since World War II, 10 of
[3:55] them were preceded by an oil price
[3:59] spike. Meaning most of the recessions
[4:01] that we have seen in the United States
[4:03] over the last 100 or so years
[4:06] started with oil prices spiking. Now,
[4:09] the oil prices going up might not have
[4:11] been the cause of the recession, but
[4:13] it's something that we've seen happen
[4:14] before a lot of recessions. And the
[4:16] other part to that is that when oil
[4:19] prices spiked, that's not when the
[4:21] market crash or recession happened. The
[4:24] downturn started months or a year after
[4:27] the fact. Let me give you an example.
[4:29] Let's go back to 1973.
[4:32] In 1973, we had just faced an inflation
[4:35] problem because the dollar was taken off
[4:37] of the gold standard in 1971, just a
[4:40] couple years prior. That led to a lot of
[4:42] money printing and inflation. And then
[4:44] 1973, the United States got involved
[4:46] with a war in the United
[4:49] and then in 1973, the United States got
[4:51] involved with a war in the Middle East
[4:52] called the Yam Kapoor war, which caused
[4:55] oil prices to spike. Well, in response,
[4:57] OPEC in the United States had an oil
[4:59] embargo which hit in October of 1973.
[5:02] And everybody said the oil crisis is
[5:05] over in October 1973. But then the
[5:09] recession and the stock market hit in
[5:12] 1974. It didn't start for another 6
[5:15] months, that downturn. Let's fast
[5:17] forward to 1979.
[5:20] That was when the Iran revolution was
[5:22] happening. There was an oil shock which
[5:24] then led to a recession in the United
[5:26] States about one year later which lasted
[5:29] a couple of years. Let's go now to the
[5:32] year 1990 with the Gulf War. Oil prices
[5:35] spiked which then later months later led
[5:38] to a downturn in the economy. And then
[5:41] if we take a look at the 2008 crash, an
[5:45] oil shock happened before we saw the
[5:48] real downturn with the economy. Again,
[5:51] there was a lot of things that led to
[5:52] the 2008 great financial crisis, but an
[5:55] oil shock also happened leading up to
[5:57] the 2008 crash. Why does this all
[6:00] matter? Because the pain that we've seen
[6:04] with oil prices over the last number of
[6:05] months is going to be felt in our
[6:07] economy for some time into the future.
[6:10] And there is a chance that our economy
[6:12] can absorb it and no pain will come.
[6:14] There's also a chance that we will see
[6:16] some more economic pain as a result of
[6:18] the higher oil prices that we have seen
[6:20] over the last few months. What will
[6:22] happen? Only hindsight is 2020. But I
[6:25] want you to understand what we've seen
[6:27] happen in the past. The other reason why
[6:29] this is important for you to understand
[6:31] has to do with the Federal Reserve Bank
[6:33] and the housing market because the
[6:35] Federal Reserve Bank is the entity in
[6:37] charge of deciding interest rates.
[6:40] And President Trump just appointed a new
[6:42] chairman at the Federal Reserve Bank, a
[6:44] guy by the name of Kevin Worsh. Why does
[6:46] this matter? Because since President
[6:48] Trump entered the White House in 2025,
[6:50] he has been demanding lower interest
[6:53] rates. Well, for the Fed to cut interest
[6:56] rates generally
[6:58] they want to see some sort of pain in
[7:01] the economy. Well, inflation is not a
[7:03] problem. The reason why is lower
[7:05] interest rates help to stimulate the
[7:07] economy. So if you have pain in the
[7:08] economy, the lower interest rates can
[7:10] stimulate the economy. And the reason
[7:13] why the Fed doesn't want to see
[7:14] inflation when they want to cut interest
[7:16] rates is because the cutting of interest
[7:19] rates can make the inflation problem
[7:20] worse. So leading up to the year 2026,
[7:24] everybody had pretty much expected that
[7:27] we were going to see drastic interest
[7:29] rate cuts in 2026 because we were going
[7:31] to see a new chairman of the Federal
[7:33] Reserve Bank appointed by President
[7:34] Trump. And President Trump has been
[7:36] demanding lower interest rates. But then
[7:38] things changed after the United States
[7:40] attacked Iran because oil prices shot
[7:42] up. These higher oil prices led to
[7:44] higher gas prices, higher diesel prices,
[7:46] higher grocery costs, and higher prices
[7:48] of a lot of things. Inflation hit a new
[7:51] high that we haven't seen in about 3
[7:53] years.
[7:54] So now the talks were I don't think
[7:58] we're going to see lower interest rates
[8:00] in 2026. In fact, the Fed will probably
[8:03] have to raise interest rates in 2026
[8:06] because of how bad inflation is getting
[8:08] and how quickly it is getting bad. That
[8:10] had been pretty much the consensus with
[8:13] investors and Wall Street up until now
[8:17] because we don't know how long the
[8:18] conflict in the Middle East is going to
[8:20] last. We don't know how long oil prices
[8:22] are going to stay high. And as a result,
[8:24] well, we don't think that we're going to
[8:26] see lower interest rates anytime soon.
[8:28] In fact, we should be preparing for
[8:29] higher interest rates. Well, now we have
[8:33] this conflict in the Middle East ending.
[8:35] At least that's what we hear. We have
[8:37] oil prices falling and now the talk is
[8:41] what is this going to mean for inflation
[8:42] and inflation rates. And this is a
[8:45] concept that you want to understand the
[8:46] difference of because inflation is the
[8:48] price growth of things. Inflation rate
[8:51] is how fast the price growth is rising.
[8:54] Over the last few months, we have seen
[8:56] the prices of things rise relatively
[8:58] quickly. Now, the question is, what's
[9:00] going to come next? Is the inflation
[9:02] rate going to fall? President Trump says
[9:05] that it's going to fall like a rock, but
[9:07] it's not going to go negative. At least
[9:09] that's not what the government wants.
[9:11] That's not what the Federal Reserve Bank
[9:12] wants. That's not what Wall Street
[9:14] wants. They don't want negative
[9:15] inflation. They want lower inflation
[9:18] rates, which means the prices of things
[9:20] are still rising, just not as fast as
[9:22] they were before.
[9:24] So, if that's the case, if the prices of
[9:26] things continue to rise, just not as
[9:28] fast as they were before, that means
[9:29] that the prices of things shot up over
[9:30] the last few months, and then they're
[9:32] going to continue rising, just not as
[9:33] fast as they were before. That's one
[9:36] option. Option number two is there's a
[9:40] delayed impact of the lower oil prices
[9:44] into our economy, which means inflation
[9:46] rate stays higher for longer. What's
[9:49] ultimately going to happen? Well,
[9:50] hopefully oil prices will bring down the
[9:53] inflation rate causing the inflation
[9:55] rate to cool down. But generally, the
[9:58] government doesn't want to see a
[9:59] negative inflation rate because if the
[10:01] inflation rate is negative, that means
[10:04] we're seeing deflation. And the reason
[10:06] why that matters so much for the
[10:07] government is because remember the
[10:09] government has about $39 trillion of
[10:12] national debt.
[10:14] Deflation means that each dollar is more
[10:18] valuable, which means that $39 trillion
[10:21] of national debt is more valuable. It's
[10:23] more expensive to pay off. Inflation
[10:26] means that the value of each dollar is
[10:28] losing value, which means that the value
[10:31] of the 39 trillions of dollars of debt
[10:34] is becoming smaller and smaller because
[10:36] we're paying that money back with
[10:38] cheaper dollars. Think of it this way.
[10:41] Imagine 30 years ago you bought a house
[10:44] for $100,000.
[10:46] Today the house is worth a million, but
[10:49] 30 years ago you bought the house with a
[10:51] 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 20% down.
[10:55] That means you only financed $80,000.
[10:58] Well, the $80,000 that you financed 30
[11:00] years ago is a lot more valuable than
[11:02] $80,000 today because well, you're not
[11:05] going to buy a $100,000 house today in
[11:07] 2026.
[11:09] So because of inflation, your debt
[11:12] became a lot less expensive. And this is
[11:16] why the government does not want to see
[11:17] deflation. They want to see inflation.
[11:20] And so you want to understand what those
[11:22] two things mean. Inflation versus
[11:23] inflation rate because we're not going
[11:26] to or likely not going to see any
[11:28] negative inflation, but the government
[11:30] wants to see a lower inflation rate.
[11:32] Because when you have a high inflation
[11:34] rate, well then people get upset because
[11:37] the cost of living is growing faster
[11:39] than people's incomes. And when things
[11:41] are growing faster than people's
[11:42] incomes, they become poorer. And when
[11:44] it's a very noticeable effect, meaning
[11:47] it's happening quickly, people get more
[11:49] upset. Now, it's not a surprise that the
[11:53] cost of living is growing faster than
[11:55] incomes because that's been happening
[11:56] for decades. But generally, it happens
[11:59] at a slower rate and people don't notice
[12:01] it. And that's what the Federal Reserve
[12:03] Bank wants because when the inflation
[12:06] rate is not significantly higher than
[12:08] your incomes, people don't really ask a
[12:10] lot of questions. Hate it or love it,
[12:12] that's how the system works, which is
[12:14] why you want to be an investor so you
[12:15] can capitalize in the things that are
[12:17] happening in our economy. Again, that's
[12:18] why I have my workshop. The link is free
[12:20] down in the description to go over how
[12:22] you can find investment opportunities
[12:23] right now. But this also brings me to
[12:25] the housing market. And I'm going to do
[12:26] a deeper dive video on this housing
[12:28] market soon because I think it's
[12:29] important to understand. [snorts]
[12:31] But the housing market has gone through
[12:33] a lot of transitions, not just since the
[12:35] pandemic, but also in 2026 because a lot
[12:38] of people were hoping for and begging
[12:39] for lower mortgage rates in 2026. That's
[12:42] kind of what people have been promised
[12:44] that 2026 is the year mortgage rates are
[12:46] going to fall drastically.
[12:48] Well, ever since the conflict in the
[12:50] Middle East started, mortgage rates did
[12:51] not fall. They went up. And the reason
[12:53] why they went up is because of the
[12:55] higher concerns in the economy that led
[12:57] to higher mortgage rates. And the reason
[13:00] why I don't want to get into the
[13:01] technicals right now, it just has to do
[13:03] with the 10-year Treasury that as there
[13:06] was more concerns economically in the
[13:09] United States, United States Treasury
[13:11] yields went up, which then led to higher
[13:13] mortgage rates. So just in simple terms,
[13:17] more economic concern because of the war
[13:19] led to mortgage rates going up. So
[13:21] everybody here in 2026 said, "Okay, I'm
[13:23] going to be able to finally refinance.
[13:25] I'm going to finally buy a house as
[13:26] mortgage rates fall." But the opposite
[13:28] happened. Mortgage rates have been going
[13:30] up significantly, which has been putting
[13:32] a lot of strain on the housing market
[13:34] again. Well, now that oil prices are
[13:38] falling, people are hoping that this is
[13:41] going to lead to lower treasury rates,
[13:42] which is going to lead to lower mortgage
[13:45] rates, which will help stimulate the
[13:47] housing market again. And you want to
[13:50] understand how that ties into what the
[13:52] Federal Reserve Bank is doing. Because
[13:53] if the Federal Reserve Bank also has the
[13:56] ability to cut interest rates, that can
[13:58] also help drive lower mortgage rates in
[14:01] the housing market. Again, we don't know
[14:04] what's going to happen just yet, but
[14:06] this is what people in the real estate
[14:07] industry are hoping for. that because
[14:10] this conflict is over that we're going
[14:12] to finally see some relief in the
[14:13] mortgage market, which means mortgage
[14:15] bankers will be able to make more money,
[14:16] realtors will be able to make more
[14:17] money, title companies will be able to
[14:19] make more money, sellers will start
[14:21] selling their houses again, people that
[14:22] are owning their houses will start
[14:24] refinancing again, and buyers will want
[14:26] to start buying houses again. That's the
[14:29] hope that a lot of people have because
[14:30] real estate is really the backbone
[14:33] industry for the United States. And when
[14:35] the real estate industry slows down, the
[14:38] United States economy takes a hit. So
[14:41] hopefully we will not get dragged back
[14:42] into the war because that's going to
[14:44] create more volatility in the market
[14:45] again. We've seen this happen again and
[14:47] again. But that's what people are hoping
[14:49] does not happen. But the things you want
[14:52] to pay attention to is what is this
[14:54] going to mean for the long-term health
[14:56] of our economy at least over the next
[14:58] couple of years. What does this mean for
[15:00] the stock market over the next couple of
[15:01] years? What is this going to mean for
[15:04] China? What is it going to mean for the
[15:06] Federal Reserve Bank and interest rates?
[15:07] And what is it going to mean for the
[15:09] housing market? Hopefully, this video
[15:11] helped clarify a lot of things that are
[15:13] happening in the economy right now,
[15:14] especially due to the conflict in the
[15:16] Middle East. If you got value out of
[15:18] this video, the best thank you was a
[15:20] referral. So, if you could please share
[15:21] this video with a friend, family member,
[15:23] colleague, or fellow investor. That way,
[15:24] we can continue to spread this type of
[15:26] financial education. Thank you.
[15:27] President Trump is now unleashing the
[15:29] biggest AI push the world has ever seen.
[15:32] >> America is the country that started the
[15:35] AI race. And as president of the United
[15:38] States, I'm here today to declare that
[15:41] America [music] is going to win it. In
[15:44] plain English, that means hundreds of
[15:46] billions of your tax dollars are