---
title: 'Trump Just Ended The War - Here''s What Most People Are Missing'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=IJ-jGlnAOgA'
video_id: 'IJ-jGlnAOgA'
date: 2026-07-01
duration_sec: 948
---

# Trump Just Ended The War - Here's What Most People Are Missing

> Source: [Trump Just Ended The War - Here's What Most People Are Missing](https://youtube.com/watch?v=IJ-jGlnAOgA)

## Summary

The transcript analyzes the market rally immediately following President Trump's announcement of the end of the conflict with Iran. It warns that the true economic impact of the prior oil price spike is historically delayed, and ties the conflict into the broader U.S.-China economic rivalry and its effect on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

### Key Points

- **Immediate Market Rally** [00:00] — President Trump announced the war with Iran is over. Investors responded positively, with stock markets rallying and oil prices falling.
- **Historical Oil-Recession Link** [03:48] — 10 out of the last 11 U.S. recessions since WWII were preceded by an oil price spike.
- **Pain is Delayed** [04:24] — The real economic downturn typically starts months or a year after the oil crisis ends, not while prices are high.
- **U.S.-China Economic War** [01:16] — The conflict with Iran was part of a broader economic war with China, involving tariffs, control of oil supplies, and rare earth supply chains.
- **Inflation and Interest Rate Shift** [07:40] — Oil price spikes led to a new 3-year high in inflation, shifting consensus from expecting interest rate cuts in 2026 to preparing for possible rate hikes by the new Fed chair Kevin Worsh.
- **Housing Market Strain** [12:48] — The war caused mortgage rates to rise instead of fall, straining the housing market. There is now hope that lower oil prices will lead to lower rates and stimulate the market.

## Transcript

President Trump just announced that the
war with Iran is over and investors are
loving it. The stock market is rallying.
Oil prices are falling and investors are
hoping that the economy will be able to
boom again. But there's more to the
story that you want to pay attention to.
In the past, when we've seen oil price
shocks, the real pain to the economy
doesn't happen while oil prices are
high. They generally happen after the
oil crisis ends. Not to mention the fact
that this conflict in the Middle East
also had an impact on China, the Federal
Reserve Bank, and interest rates. So, in
this video, I'm going to break down what
might be coming now that we have the
announcement that the war is officially
over. So, let me break this all down. By
the way, this is why again, today on
June 16th, I have a live free and
virtual investor workshop at 12:00 p.m.
Eastern time, noon, where I'm going to
be going over how you can find
investment opportunities today, where
the investment opportunities are. It's a
free workshop. It's live. I'm going to
be going over a lot of opportunities and
research that a firm has been doing. So,
if you haven't signed up yet, there's a
limited number of people that can
actually join me live. It's free at
12:00 p.m. Eastern time on June 16th.
So, if you haven't registered, I look
forward to seeing you there. The link is
down in the description below.
[clears throat] So, let me break down a
few things that you want to understand.
Starting with China. The reason why the
conflict in the Middle East also
impacted China is because the United
States and China have been battling not
militarily but economically. China's
economy has been growing faster than the
United States's economy. And there's
been a lot of talk about the United
States dollar losing its value, losing
its trust while China has been working
to buy more gold and strengthen their
currency. Now, a lot of people will tell
you that it's impossible to think that
the Chinese yuan could ever replace the
United States dollar. But just
understand that China has made it very
clear that they want to replace the
United States as the world's superpower.
Well, the reason why the United States
and China are butdding heads
economically, is because reports will
show you that if China's economy keeps
growing at the rate that it is, which is
faster than the United States, we're
approximately 10 years away from China
surpassing the United States economy.
Well, in response to that, the United
States economy is trying to fight China.
But they're not fighting them with tanks
and missiles directly with China.
Instead, the United States put tariffs
on China as a way to not only bring
business back to the United States, but
also hurt China. The United States then
attacked Venezuela and took out the
president of Venezuela while also then
getting in control of Venezuelan oil,
which was previously going to China.
Then the United States attacked Iran
which again was selling oil to China at
a discount and that also made it more
difficult for China to continue
operating their economy because China
was relying on this cheap oil to
continue producing the products for
cheap. And then we have all these other
economic things happening like the
United States trying to build their own
rare earth supply chain meaning trying
to mine and produce our own metals
without relying on China as a way to
become more independent away from China.
So part of this conflict had a lot to do
with China and now the question is
what's going to come next and is this
enough with China? But let's go a little
bit deeper as to what this means for the
United States economy. Because a lot of
people are now hoping that if this
conflict ends, oil prices will fall
drastically. We've already seen a huge
drop in oil prices since President Trump
made the announcement that the war with
Iran is over. If oil prices fall,
doesn't that mean that the economy is
going to boom and inflation is going to
get better? And there's a couple things
that you want to understand about this.
Let me start by taking a look at history
because while history doesn't exactly
repeat itself, it does rhyme. If we take
a look at the last 11 recessions in the
United States since World War II, 10 of
them were preceded by an oil price
spike. Meaning most of the recessions
that we have seen in the United States
over the last 100 or so years
started with oil prices spiking. Now,
the oil prices going up might not have
been the cause of the recession, but
it's something that we've seen happen
before a lot of recessions. And the
other part to that is that when oil
prices spiked, that's not when the
market crash or recession happened. The
downturn started months or a year after
the fact. Let me give you an example.
Let's go back to 1973.
In 1973, we had just faced an inflation
problem because the dollar was taken off
of the gold standard in 1971, just a
couple years prior. That led to a lot of
money printing and inflation. And then
1973, the United States got involved
with a war in the United
and then in 1973, the United States got
involved with a war in the Middle East
called the Yam Kapoor war, which caused
oil prices to spike. Well, in response,
OPEC in the United States had an oil
embargo which hit in October of 1973.
And everybody said the oil crisis is
over in October 1973. But then the
recession and the stock market hit in
1974. It didn't start for another 6
months, that downturn. Let's fast
forward to 1979.
That was when the Iran revolution was
happening. There was an oil shock which
then led to a recession in the United
States about one year later which lasted
a couple of years. Let's go now to the
year 1990 with the Gulf War. Oil prices
spiked which then later months later led
to a downturn in the economy. And then
if we take a look at the 2008 crash, an
oil shock happened before we saw the
real downturn with the economy. Again,
there was a lot of things that led to
the 2008 great financial crisis, but an
oil shock also happened leading up to
the 2008 crash. Why does this all
matter? Because the pain that we've seen
with oil prices over the last number of
months is going to be felt in our
economy for some time into the future.
And there is a chance that our economy
can absorb it and no pain will come.
There's also a chance that we will see
some more economic pain as a result of
the higher oil prices that we have seen
over the last few months. What will
happen? Only hindsight is 2020. But I
want you to understand what we've seen
happen in the past. The other reason why
this is important for you to understand
has to do with the Federal Reserve Bank
and the housing market because the
Federal Reserve Bank is the entity in
charge of deciding interest rates.
And President Trump just appointed a new
chairman at the Federal Reserve Bank, a
guy by the name of Kevin Worsh. Why does
this matter? Because since President
Trump entered the White House in 2025,
he has been demanding lower interest
rates. Well, for the Fed to cut interest
rates generally
they want to see some sort of pain in
the economy. Well, inflation is not a
problem. The reason why is lower
interest rates help to stimulate the
economy. So if you have pain in the
economy, the lower interest rates can
stimulate the economy. And the reason
why the Fed doesn't want to see
inflation when they want to cut interest
rates is because the cutting of interest
rates can make the inflation problem
worse. So leading up to the year 2026,
everybody had pretty much expected that
we were going to see drastic interest
rate cuts in 2026 because we were going
to see a new chairman of the Federal
Reserve Bank appointed by President
Trump. And President Trump has been
demanding lower interest rates. But then
things changed after the United States
attacked Iran because oil prices shot
up. These higher oil prices led to
higher gas prices, higher diesel prices,
higher grocery costs, and higher prices
of a lot of things. Inflation hit a new
high that we haven't seen in about 3
years.
So now the talks were I don't think
we're going to see lower interest rates
in 2026. In fact, the Fed will probably
have to raise interest rates in 2026
because of how bad inflation is getting
and how quickly it is getting bad. That
had been pretty much the consensus with
investors and Wall Street up until now
because we don't know how long the
conflict in the Middle East is going to
last. We don't know how long oil prices
are going to stay high. And as a result,
well, we don't think that we're going to
see lower interest rates anytime soon.
In fact, we should be preparing for
higher interest rates. Well, now we have
this conflict in the Middle East ending.
At least that's what we hear. We have
oil prices falling and now the talk is
what is this going to mean for inflation
and inflation rates. And this is a
concept that you want to understand the
difference of because inflation is the
price growth of things. Inflation rate
is how fast the price growth is rising.
Over the last few months, we have seen
the prices of things rise relatively
quickly. Now, the question is, what's
going to come next? Is the inflation
rate going to fall? President Trump says
that it's going to fall like a rock, but
it's not going to go negative. At least
that's not what the government wants.
That's not what the Federal Reserve Bank
wants. That's not what Wall Street
wants. They don't want negative
inflation. They want lower inflation
rates, which means the prices of things
are still rising, just not as fast as
they were before.
So, if that's the case, if the prices of
things continue to rise, just not as
fast as they were before, that means
that the prices of things shot up over
the last few months, and then they're
going to continue rising, just not as
fast as they were before. That's one
option. Option number two is there's a
delayed impact of the lower oil prices
into our economy, which means inflation
rate stays higher for longer. What's
ultimately going to happen? Well,
hopefully oil prices will bring down the
inflation rate causing the inflation
rate to cool down. But generally, the
government doesn't want to see a
negative inflation rate because if the
inflation rate is negative, that means
we're seeing deflation. And the reason
why that matters so much for the
government is because remember the
government has about $39 trillion of
national debt.
Deflation means that each dollar is more
valuable, which means that $39 trillion
of national debt is more valuable. It's
more expensive to pay off. Inflation
means that the value of each dollar is
losing value, which means that the value
of the 39 trillions of dollars of debt
is becoming smaller and smaller because
we're paying that money back with
cheaper dollars. Think of it this way.
Imagine 30 years ago you bought a house
for $100,000.
Today the house is worth a million, but
30 years ago you bought the house with a
30-year fixed rate mortgage at 20% down.
That means you only financed $80,000.
Well, the $80,000 that you financed 30
years ago is a lot more valuable than
$80,000 today because well, you're not
going to buy a $100,000 house today in
2026.
So because of inflation, your debt
became a lot less expensive. And this is
why the government does not want to see
deflation. They want to see inflation.
And so you want to understand what those
two things mean. Inflation versus
inflation rate because we're not going
to or likely not going to see any
negative inflation, but the government
wants to see a lower inflation rate.
Because when you have a high inflation
rate, well then people get upset because
the cost of living is growing faster
than people's incomes. And when things
are growing faster than people's
incomes, they become poorer. And when
it's a very noticeable effect, meaning
it's happening quickly, people get more
upset. Now, it's not a surprise that the
cost of living is growing faster than
incomes because that's been happening
for decades. But generally, it happens
at a slower rate and people don't notice
it. And that's what the Federal Reserve
Bank wants because when the inflation
rate is not significantly higher than
your incomes, people don't really ask a
lot of questions. Hate it or love it,
that's how the system works, which is
why you want to be an investor so you
can capitalize in the things that are
happening in our economy. Again, that's
why I have my workshop. The link is free
down in the description to go over how
you can find investment opportunities
right now. But this also brings me to
the housing market. And I'm going to do
a deeper dive video on this housing
market soon because I think it's
important to understand. [snorts]
But the housing market has gone through
a lot of transitions, not just since the
pandemic, but also in 2026 because a lot
of people were hoping for and begging
for lower mortgage rates in 2026. That's
kind of what people have been promised
that 2026 is the year mortgage rates are
going to fall drastically.
Well, ever since the conflict in the
Middle East started, mortgage rates did
not fall. They went up. And the reason
why they went up is because of the
higher concerns in the economy that led
to higher mortgage rates. And the reason
why I don't want to get into the
technicals right now, it just has to do
with the 10-year Treasury that as there
was more concerns economically in the
United States, United States Treasury
yields went up, which then led to higher
mortgage rates. So just in simple terms,
more economic concern because of the war
led to mortgage rates going up. So
everybody here in 2026 said, "Okay, I'm
going to be able to finally refinance.
I'm going to finally buy a house as
mortgage rates fall." But the opposite
happened. Mortgage rates have been going
up significantly, which has been putting
a lot of strain on the housing market
again. Well, now that oil prices are
falling, people are hoping that this is
going to lead to lower treasury rates,
which is going to lead to lower mortgage
rates, which will help stimulate the
housing market again. And you want to
understand how that ties into what the
Federal Reserve Bank is doing. Because
if the Federal Reserve Bank also has the
ability to cut interest rates, that can
also help drive lower mortgage rates in
the housing market. Again, we don't know
what's going to happen just yet, but
this is what people in the real estate
industry are hoping for. that because
this conflict is over that we're going
to finally see some relief in the
mortgage market, which means mortgage
bankers will be able to make more money,
realtors will be able to make more
money, title companies will be able to
make more money, sellers will start
selling their houses again, people that
are owning their houses will start
refinancing again, and buyers will want
to start buying houses again. That's the
hope that a lot of people have because
real estate is really the backbone
industry for the United States. And when
the real estate industry slows down, the
United States economy takes a hit. So
hopefully we will not get dragged back
into the war because that's going to
create more volatility in the market
again. We've seen this happen again and
again. But that's what people are hoping
does not happen. But the things you want
to pay attention to is what is this
going to mean for the long-term health
of our economy at least over the next
couple of years. What does this mean for
the stock market over the next couple of
years? What is this going to mean for
China? What is it going to mean for the
Federal Reserve Bank and interest rates?
And what is it going to mean for the
housing market? Hopefully, this video
helped clarify a lot of things that are
happening in the economy right now,
especially due to the conflict in the
Middle East. If you got value out of
this video, the best thank you was a
referral. So, if you could please share
this video with a friend, family member,
colleague, or fellow investor. That way,
we can continue to spread this type of
financial education. Thank you.
President Trump is now unleashing the
biggest AI push the world has ever seen.
>> America is the country that started the
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