[0:00] Believe it or not,
[0:00] the next economic shock
has already started
[0:03] and the news isn't telling
you the full story.
[0:05] I'm talking about the Iran war
[0:07] and the economic chain reaction
it's already triggering,
[0:10] because even if the situation
appears to be calming down,
[0:13] the real financial consequences
[0:15] haven't hit the average person yet.
[0:17] This is gonna hit your finances hard
[0:19] and most people won't see it
coming until it's too late.
[0:22] That's why today I thought
it was important to explain
[0:24] what's actually going on,
[0:26] break down the direct impacts on you,
[0:28] and give you my thoughts on
how you can protect yourself
[0:31] from the storm.
[0:32] I'm prioritizing getting
this video out fast,
[0:34] so don't expect the editing
to be as slick as usual.
[0:37] It's far more important
[0:38] for you to hear all
this information sooner
[0:40] rather than later
[0:41] so you can take action quickly.
[0:43] Trust me, if you watch one video today,
[0:46] make it this one.
[0:47] Right, so I've identified six main impacts
[0:50] the Iran war will have on your finances,
[0:52] but for those to make sense,
we need to talk about...
[0:57] Have you ever noticed that
every headline right now
[0:59] seems to contradict the last one?
[1:01] It's almost like the mainstream media
[1:03] is purposely trying to
keep everyone confused
[1:06] so that we don't connect
all the information
[1:08] that actually matters.
[1:09] That's why I'm gonna give you a rundown
[1:11] of everything you need to
know about the Iran war
[1:13] in the shortest time possible
[1:15] before we get into the direct impacts
[1:17] on you and your finances.
[1:18] So on February 28th,
[1:19] the US and Israel launched
a coordinated strike on Iran
[1:23] code-named operation Epic Fury,
[1:26] firing nearly 900
strikes in just 12 hours,
[1:29] targeting military sites,
nuclear facilities,
[1:32] and senior leadership.
[1:33] And as you can probably imagine,
[1:34] Iran didn't just sit there and take it,
[1:37] they fired back immediately,
[1:38] sending missiles and
drones to Israel, US bases,
[1:41] and allies across the Middle East.
[1:43] But the move that really
shook the global economy
[1:46] came on March 2nd
[1:47] when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
[1:49] Now, if you don't know what
the Strait of Hormuz is,
[1:52] picture it like this.
[1:53] Imagine there's a single
stretch of motorway
[1:56] that 20% of the world's
oil has to travel through
[1:59] every single day with no alternative
[2:02] and someone just parked a
lorry sideways across it.
[2:04] Well, in this analogy, Iran is the lorry
[2:07] and the effects on everyday
people have been much bigger
[2:10] than most people realize.
[2:11] Within weeks, oil went
from around $61 a barrel
[2:14] at the start of the year to
over 118 by the end of March,
[2:18] that's nearly doubling just three months
[2:20] and the biggest rise in nearly 40 years.
[2:23] And then just as everyone
started to panic,
[2:25] Trump announced a two-week ceasefire.
[2:28] Oil prices dropped, markets rallied,
[2:30] and people breathed a huge sigh of relief.
[2:33] It felt like the reset button
had finally been pressed,
[2:36] except nobody can agree if it actually was
[2:38] because even now the
situation stays murky.
[2:42] Both sides have declared the strait open,
[2:44] but they can't even
agree on what open means,
[2:46] who is really in control,
[2:48] or how long it lasts.
[2:50] And even the US Navy is
still warning vessels
[2:52] to avoid the waterway entirely
[2:54] because the sea mine threat
is not fully understood.
[2:57] So, is it open?
[2:59] Technically maybe
[3:02] but practically, the world isn't sure.
[3:04] And that uncertainty alone
[3:06] is enough to keep the damage going,
[3:08] because no matter what happens next,
[3:10] the shockwave is already on its way.
[3:12] The damage has been done,
[3:14] and that's what I wanna
talk to you about today,
[3:17] not the politics or the military tactics,
[3:19] I'm really not interested in that,
[3:21] what I'm interested in is
what this actually means
[3:24] for your money, your job,
[3:26] and your day-to-day life
over the next 6 to 12 months.
[3:29] Because there are six
impacts unfolding right now
[3:32] that I think every single
person needs to understand.
[3:36] Let's get into them.
[3:37] (lively music)
[3:39] The biggest lie people
are being told right now
[3:41] is that the situation is cooling off
[3:43] when financially it's
just getting started.
[3:46] Yes, the fighting might be calming down,
[3:48] but that doesn't mean your
energy bill, food prices,
[3:51] and transport costs will also go down,
[3:53] that's not how this kind of shock works.
[3:55] Think of it like food poisoning.
[3:57] The moment you stop eating a dodgy prawn,
[3:59] it doesn't mean you suddenly feel fine,
[4:01] the poison is already in your system
[4:03] and it takes time to work its way through
[4:05] before you feel the full effects.
[4:07] That's exactly what's
happening to prices right now.
[4:09] But Mark, aren't you
being a bit over the top?
[4:12] This is just about oil prices, right?
[4:14] Well, yes, it's about oil prices,
[4:17] but no, I'm not being over the top
[4:19] because oil affects so much
more than you first think,
[4:22] it's the invisible ingredient
in almost everything you buy.
[4:26] Think about your last grocery shop.
[4:28] Every single item on
those shelves was grown,
[4:31] processed, packaged, and
driven to that supermarket,
[4:34] and every step of that
process costs money.
[4:37] And the moment oil gets more expensive,
[4:39] the steps get more expensive too
[4:41] until it finally lands on your receipt.
[4:43] Energy prices have already
risen double digits this year,
[4:46] and I'm genuinely concerned
it could go a lot higher
[4:49] over the next three to six months
[4:51] as a shock works its
way through the system.
[4:54] That means higher energy
bills, more expensive food,
[4:57] and pricier transport
costs for everyday people.
[5:00] So what can you actually do about it?
[5:02] Well, the most important
thing to do right now
[5:04] is be very careful about making
big financial commitments
[5:07] based on the assumption
[5:08] that things are about to get cheaper,
[5:10] because realistically,
[5:12] your monthly expenses are
probably gonna keep going up
[5:15] before they come down.
[5:16] If you are thinking about
signing a new lease,
[5:19] taking on debt, or making a big purchase,
[5:22] just pause for a moment and
save a bit of extra money
[5:25] to give yourself some breathing room.
[5:27] That's also why it's
essential to stay informed
[5:30] because a lot of what's
happening right now is complex,
[5:33] fast moving, and easy to misunderstand,
[5:36] which means most people
will go through it blindly.
[5:38] The ones who take the
time to understand it
[5:41] will definitely make better
decisions with their money.
[5:43] And that's exactly why I started
[5:45] a new YouTube channel recently
[5:46] called Mark Tilbury Economics
[5:48] where I break down the biggest things
[5:50] happening in the economy
[5:51] and explain what they actually
mean for you and your money.
[5:54] So definitely consider subscribing
if you wanna stay up date
[5:57] with the stuff that actually matters.
[5:59] I'll leave a link in the description
[6:00] for those that are serious
about growing their wealth.
[6:03] I actually think this is
more important than ever,
[6:05] which is exactly why the second
impact worries me so much
[6:09] because it hits your paycheck.
[6:11] (lively music)
[6:13] If you are not where you
wanna be financially,
[6:15] this next part is gonna be hard to hear
[6:18] because your income might not
be as secure as you think.
[6:21] You see, when your bills go up
[6:23] and spending goes down,
[6:24] naturally, something in
the economy has to give,
[6:27] which could result in you losing your job
[6:30] right at the worst possible moment.
[6:31] And if you think your job is secure,
[6:33] let me tell you why it might
not be as safe as you think.
[6:36] You see, when energy prices
spike like they have,
[6:39] businesses get hit from
two directions at once.
[6:42] On one side, their costs go up,
[6:43] like transport,
manufacturing, electricity,
[6:46] things like that,
[6:47] and on the other side,
people start spending less
[6:49] because their bills are going up too.
[6:51] It's like a sandwich being squeezed
[6:53] from both sides at the same time,
[6:55] and when this happens,
[6:56] businesses have to make decisions fast.
[6:58] It usually starts small
like cutting overtime
[7:00] and freezing hiring,
[7:02] but as the crisis continues,
[7:04] it'll almost certainly lead to layoffs.
[7:06] And look, I'm not saying
this to scare you,
[7:08] I'm saying this because the
warning signs were already there
[7:10] before the oil shock even hit.
[7:12] Job growth has been slowing down,
[7:14] companies have been quietly pulling back,
[7:16] and the last time the hiring rate
[7:18] was sustained at this level
[7:19] was during the financial
crisis of 2008 and 2009.
[7:23] If you have a job right now,
[7:25] you're probably safe,
[7:26] at least for the meantime,
[7:28] but my concern is that when you layer
[7:30] an energy shock like this
[7:31] on top of an already struggling market,
[7:33] everything accelerates.
[7:35] Historically, when
something like this happens,
[7:37] energy spikes, businesses get squeezed,
[7:40] hiring slows, and people get fired,
[7:42] it's like a chain reaction.
[7:44] It's pretty worrying stuff,
[7:46] but luckily there are
a few things you can do
[7:48] to protect yourself.
[7:49] First, don't assume your
income is guaranteed.
[7:52] Even if your job feels solid right now,
[7:55] this is the kind of environment
[7:56] where things can change quickly.
[7:58] Second, if you're employed,
[8:00] focus on becoming harder to replace.
[8:02] That can mean picking
up extra responsibility,
[8:05] improving your skill set,
[8:06] or just making sure you are
someone your company needs,
[8:09] not just someone they have.
[8:11] Third, start an online side
hustle that has the potential
[8:14] to make you at least $10,000 per month.
[8:16] I know this might sound
like quite a hard task,
[8:19] especially if you're
working a full-time job.
[8:21] However, you can learn an online skill
[8:23] in 20 hours of focused work
[8:26] and be better than 90% of
people at that specific thing.
[8:29] I'm running a free online
live event very soon
[8:32] where I talk you through
what skills to master,
[8:34] how to package it as a service
[8:36] and send it to businesses so
you can make $10,000 a month.
[8:40] If you wanna join me,
[8:41] I'll leave a link in the
description so you can sign up.
[8:43] And fourth, don't sit around
[8:45] waiting for the government to step in,
[8:47] which leads me to the third impact.
[8:49] (dramatic music)
[8:51] If you don't wanna be like everyone else,
[8:54] then you've gotta assuming someone
[8:56] or something is gonna fix this for you.
[8:58] You see, if you've been through
a financial crisis before,
[9:01] whether it was 2008 or the pandemic,
[9:04] you probably remember
thinking at some point,
[9:06] okay, this is bad,
[9:08] but surely the government
are gonna do something,
[9:10] and they did.
[9:11] Interest rates got cut, money was printed,
[9:14] stimulus checks got sent,
[9:15] and things stabilized fairly quickly.
[9:18] It wasn't pretty, but
there was a safety net,
[9:20] and most importantly, it held strong.
[9:23] But this time around,
[9:24] I'm worried that that safety
net has a massive hole in it.
[9:27] You see, in a normal crisis,
[9:29] the first thing central banks usually do
[9:31] is cut interest rates.
[9:32] If you don't know what that means,
[9:34] a simple way to think about it
[9:35] is the price of borrowing money.
[9:37] When rates are low,
borrowing becomes cheaper,
[9:40] so businesses take out
loans to invest and grow,
[9:43] people apply for mortgages,
money flows from left to right,
[9:47] and the economy keeps going.
[9:48] So when something goes wrong,
[9:50] central banks cut rates to
make money cheaper to borrow,
[9:53] which gets the economy moving again.
[9:55] It's actually the most
common tool they use
[9:57] and it normally works a treat.
[9:59] But the problem right now is
you can't exactly cut rates
[10:02] when inflation is rising
[10:04] because cutting rates pumps
more money into the economy
[10:07] and more money chasing
the same amount of goods
[10:10] pushes prices up even further.
[10:12] And because oil just had its biggest spike
[10:14] in nearly 40 years,
[10:15] inflation is rising.
[10:17] So if you can't cut rates,
[10:18] why not just print more money
like we did in the pandemic?
[10:21] Well, the US is currently
sitting on $39 trillion
[10:25] in national debt,
[10:27] and the interest payments alone
[10:28] come to about $88 billion a month.
[10:31] That's roughly a trillion
dollars a year just in interest,
[10:35] not funding hospitals,
schools, or infrastructure,
[10:38] just interest.
[10:39] To put that into context
[10:40] because I know throwing
around trillions and billions
[10:43] can feel a bit alien,
[10:44] for every dollar the
government collects in taxes,
[10:47] 19 cents of it now goes straight
to paying interest on debt.
[10:50] Think of it like someone who's maxed out
[10:52] every credit card they own
and is already struggling
[10:55] to make the minimum payments every month.
[10:57] Would you tell that person
to just borrow more?
[11:00] Of course you wouldn't,
[11:01] and that's the position
the US is in right now.
[11:04] Every option they have to fix the crisis
[11:06] could cause a domino
effect somewhere else.
[11:08] So what does this mean for you?
[11:10] Well, I suggest not waiting around
[11:12] for the government to make things easier.
[11:14] This isn't 2008 or the pandemic
[11:16] and the playbook has completely changed.
[11:19] To clarify, I'm not saying it's impossible
[11:21] for the government to step in and help,
[11:23] but the usual interventions
[11:24] just don't make as much
sense as they used to.
[11:26] Now, when you put all three
of these impacts together,
[11:29] rising prices, a weakening job market,
[11:32] and a government with limited tools,
[11:34] you start to get a scenario
[11:36] that economists actually have a name for,
[11:38] and that leads me to impact four.
[11:40] (lively music)
[11:43] Imagine it's a random Tuesday morning
[11:46] and you've just found out
that your job is at risk.
[11:48] Then on the same day,
[11:50] an energy bill comes through your door
[11:51] and it's gone up by 30%.
[11:53] That's not just bad
luck, that's stagflation,
[11:56] and it's one of the
nastiest economic situations
[11:59] a country can find itself in,
[12:01] when prices are high,
but the economy is weak,
[12:04] because the tools that fix one problem
[12:06] directly make the other one worse.
[12:08] Most people have heard
the word stagflation
[12:10] being thrown around,
[12:11] but I don't think many fully
understand what it means,
[12:14] so let's break it down.
[12:16] This might get a bit complicated,
[12:17] but I promise it'll all make sense soon,
[12:20] so just stick with me.
[12:21] In a normal recession,
[12:23] which has happened loads
of times in the past,
[12:25] the economy shrinks, people lose jobs,
[12:27] and spending jobs,
[12:29] but at the same time,
[12:30] prices tend to come down too
[12:32] as a result of the decrease in spending.
[12:35] Stagflation, on the other
hand, is like the evil twin,
[12:38] the economy slows down
[12:40] and prices keep rising at the same time.
[12:42] So your income is under threat,
[12:44] but the cost of living
just keeps climbing.
[12:46] Now, the tools that fix inflation,
[12:48] which is typically raising interest rates,
[12:51] make the recession worse.
[12:53] And the tools that fix a recession,
[12:55] typically cutting rates
and printing money,
[12:57] make inflation worse.
[12:59] It's kind of like being
stuck in quicksand,
[13:01] the more you struggle,
the deeper you sink.
[13:03] It's pretty crazy, right?
[13:05] But let me bring it back to
you watching this right now.
[13:08] US inflation just jumped to 3.3% up
[13:11] from 2.4% the month before.
[13:13] And Goldman Sachs has cut
their GDP growth forecast
[13:16] down to 2.1.
[13:18] So put simply,
[13:19] prices are rising while
the economy is slowing,
[13:22] which is a textbook setup
for stagflation territory.
[13:25] Don't get me wrong,
[13:26] I'm not saying this
will definitely happen,
[13:28] but there's some interesting
data I keep coming back to
[13:30] that I'd like to share with you.
[13:32] There's a company called Moody's
[13:34] and they've built an AI model
[13:35] that's been tested against
80 years of economic data
[13:39] to predict recessions.
[13:40] Every single time this model has crossed
[13:42] the 50% probability threshold,
[13:45] a recession has followed within 12 months,
[13:47] not just a few times,
[13:49] every single time.
[13:51] And right now that
model is sitting at 49%,
[13:54] one percentage point away from a threshold
[13:57] that's never been wrong.
[13:59] And the worst part,
[14:00] that 49% reading was calculated
[14:02] before the Iran war even started.
[14:04] The last time the world
dealt with proper stagflation
[14:07] was the 1970s
[14:09] and it lasted an entire decade.
[14:12] That's 10 years of high
prices, weak growth,
[14:15] and shrinking standards of
living for everyday people.
[14:18] So how do you position yourself here?
[14:20] Well, the key thing to understand
[14:22] is that during stagflation,
[14:23] cash loses value
[14:25] because inflation is eaten away at it,
[14:28] but risky growth investments can also fall
[14:30] because the economy is shrinking.
[14:32] The people who survived the
1970s best were the ones
[14:35] who own things that held
their value when prices rose,
[14:38] basically, real assets that people need
[14:40] regardless of what the economy is doing.
[14:42] I'm not saying to go out and
buy a farm or a barrel of oil,
[14:46] but if your entire financial
life is sitting in cash savings
[14:49] or growth stocks,
[14:51] this might be the moment to
think about diversification
[14:54] rather than just riding it out.
[14:55] Now, one of the ways governments
[14:57] typically try to escape stagflation
[14:59] is by weakening their own currency,
[15:01] and that brings us to an impact
[15:03] that could affect every single
one of us in a very real way.
[15:08] Right now, every dollar
in your bank account,
[15:11] every pension payment you are expecting,
[15:13] and every investment you
own is only as strong
[15:16] as a system holding it up,
[15:17] and as things stand,
some very large players
[15:20] are starting to question that system.
[15:22] The US dollar is what's known
[15:24] as the world's reserve currency,
[15:26] which sounds complicated,
[15:27] but all it basically means
[15:29] is when countries around the
world trade with each other,
[15:32] they mostly use dollars,
[15:33] and when governments want
to safely store wealth,
[15:36] they do it in dollars.
[15:37] Think of USD like the
language of global finance.
[15:41] Every country speaks their
own language at home,
[15:44] but when they need to do
business with each other,
[15:46] they all speak the same language,
[15:48] and that language is the dollar,
[15:50] which is incredibly powerful for America,
[15:53] but also very important
for the rest of the world.
[15:56] And due to the war in Iran
plus the state of the economy,
[15:59] the US is trapped between three options
[16:02] and none of them are good for the dollar.
[16:04] Option one is to keep
raising interest rates
[16:06] to control inflation,
[16:07] which would eventually bring prices down,
[16:10] but in the process, likely
crash the stock market,
[16:13] make borrowing more expensive,
[16:15] and push the economy
into a deep recession.
[16:18] Option two is to print
money to keep things afloat,
[16:21] but printing money into an
already inflating economy
[16:24] could send inflation into double digits,
[16:26] which would eat away at
working-class people's savings.
[16:29] Option three is to declare
the ceasefire a win
[16:32] and step back from the Iran situation.
[16:34] But if the US can't reopen a
critical global shipping lane
[16:38] that the world's oil depends on,
[16:39] other countries will start asking
[16:41] a very uncomfortable question.
[16:43] Is the US as strong as it used to be?
[16:45] And do we even need the dollar anymore?
[16:48] And that question is already being asked.
[16:50] You see, countries don't
just hold piles of cash
[16:53] and instead they store
a lot of their money
[16:55] in something called US Treasuries.
[16:57] If you've never heard that word before,
[16:59] think of it like this.
[17:00] It's basically a country
putting its savings
[17:03] into a special American bank account,
[17:05] and the US government then uses that money
[17:07] and pays them interest on it.
[17:09] For decades, it's been seen
[17:10] as one of the safest places
in the world to store money,
[17:13] but that seems like it might be changing
[17:16] because some countries
have started pulling
[17:18] their savings out.
[17:19] Foreign central bank
holdings of US Treasuries
[17:21] just hit their lowest level since 2012.
[17:24] And instead of putting the money back in,
[17:26] they're moving it somewhere else, gold.
[17:29] And this is where it
gets quite interesting
[17:31] because gold now makes up 24%
[17:33] of central bank reserves worldwide,
[17:36] while US Treasuries only make up 21%.
[17:39] That's a complete reversal of
what we were seeing in 2015
[17:43] when treasuries were 33%
and gold was just 9%.
[17:47] Now, I'm not saying the
dollar is collapse tomorrow,
[17:50] but it is worth asking,
[17:52] if the smartest
[17:53] and most powerful money
managers in the world
[17:55] are reducing their dollar exposure,
[17:57] should you at least be
thinking about doing the same?
[17:59] I'm not talking about panic selling
[18:01] or making any dramatic moves,
[18:03] but just asking whether your savings
[18:05] and investments are too
concentrated in one currency
[18:08] or one type of asset,
[18:09] because every single one
of those three options
[18:12] available to the US weakens the dollar
[18:14] in one way or another.
[18:16] And a weaker dollar means
your money buys less
[18:18] wherever you are in the world,
[18:20] which is why people often use the term,
[18:22] when America sneezes,
the world catches a cold.
[18:25] And that brings me on to the final impact.
[18:28] (dramatic music)
[18:30] Let me ask you something,
[18:32] when your grocery bill went up recently,
[18:34] how did it feel?
[18:35] For some people watching this,
[18:37] it was annoying,
[18:38] maybe a bit jarring,
[18:39] but overall, just something
you noticed and absorbed.
[18:42] And for others, it raised questions like,
[18:45] can we still take the
kids out this weekend?
[18:47] That gap between annoying
and life-changing
[18:50] is exactly what I wanna talk about,
[18:53] because an economic crisis
doesn't land the same way
[18:56] for everyone,
[18:57] in fact, it's not even close.
[18:59] I wanna be upfront here,
[19:00] this isn't a political point,
[19:02] and I'm not approaching this
[19:03] from any particular ideological angle,
[19:05] I just wanna walk you through the numbers
[19:07] because the story they
tell is quite damning.
[19:09] If you are on a lower income,
[19:11] energy and food don't just take up
[19:13] a bigger chunk of your budget,
[19:14] they completely dominate it.
[19:16] Research shows that low-income households
[19:19] spend almost 33% of their
income on food alone
[19:22] compared to about 13% for
middle-income households.
[19:26] So when oil doubles and food prices jump,
[19:28] someone earning a high
salary notices it, sure,
[19:31] but someone on a lower
income fills it in a way
[19:33] that changes their daily life.
[19:36] It's the difference
[19:36] between checking the price
of petrol out of interest
[19:39] and wondering if you can
afford to drive to work.
[19:41] Now, the obvious response is
that governments should step in
[19:44] with subsidies and price
caps to protect people,
[19:47] but here's what actually
happens when they do that.
[19:49] During the Ukraine energy crisis,
[19:51] 95 of the world's biggest
food and energy corporations
[19:54] made $306 billion in unexpected
profits in a single year,
[20:00] and 84% of that went
straight to shareholders.
[20:03] Think about what's
actually happening there.
[20:05] The government takes money from taxes
[20:07] and uses it to cap what
people pay for energy.
[20:11] Meanwhile, the energy companies
keep charging full price
[20:13] to the government and
pocketing the difference.
[20:16] The money meant to protect ordinary people
[20:18] ends up flowing to the people
who already own the energy.
[20:21] It's like filling a bucket
[20:22] with a massive hole in the bottom.
[20:24] You're pouring as much in as you can,
[20:26] but the water's going somewhere
you never intended it to.
[20:29] It's the same pattern over and over.
[20:31] During the recovery of the
2008 financial meltdown,
[20:34] the top 1% of US earners
captured 95% of all income gains
[20:40] during that period.
[20:41] The reality is the middle class
[20:43] are being squeezed out of existence
[20:45] and nobody is coming to save you,
[20:47] that's why you need to take responsibility
[20:49] for your own income,
especially in times like this.
[20:52] So please take advantage
[20:53] of all the videos I've got on my channel
[20:55] because those that level
up their skill sets
[20:57] and financial knowledge
will come out of this storm
[21:00] stronger and richer than ever before.
[21:02] If you wanna know why I'm changing
[21:03] how I invest my money because of AI,
[21:05] then I'm gonna leave that
video right up there.
[21:07] But don't click on it just yet,
[21:09] make sure to subscribe if you
wanna grow your wealth, okay?
[21:12] I'll see you over there.