---
title: 'My Tesla Price Target Just Went Up. Here''s Why.'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=RKmVf88IXgE'
video_id: 'RKmVf88IXgE'
date: 2026-08-21
duration_sec: 1764
channel: 'Meet Kevin'
---

# My Tesla Price Target Just Went Up. Here's Why.

> Source: [My Tesla Price Target Just Went Up. Here's Why.](https://youtube.com/watch?v=RKmVf88IXgE)

## Summary

The video discusses Tesla's Semi truck and its potential impact on Tesla's stock price. The host, Kevin Paffrath, analyzes the cost savings of electric semi-trucks, the role of California incentives, and provides a revised price target for Tesla stock based on various scenarios including FSD and Optimus robots.

### Key Points

- **Tesla Semi FSD Testing** [00:02] — Images of Tesla Semi trucks being tested with LIDAR racks indicate early validation of Full Self-Driving (FSD) for this vehicle type. Elon Musk stated FSD is not the highest priority for Semi right now, with Cybercab launch expected soon.
- **California Incentives** [02:39] — Tesla Semi is expected to sell for $260,000 to $300,000, roughly twice the cost of traditional semi trucks. California is estimated to provide about $120,000 per vehicle in incentives, covering the entire extra cost of an electric vehicle.
- **Cost Per Mile Savings** [04:36] — The cost per mile for a Tesla Semi is expected to be 31 cents versus 67 cents for diesel. Over 100,000 miles, this saves $36,000. Assuming 110,000 miles per year, the annual savings are significant, potentially paying for the truck in about 5 years.
- **Bloomberg Sales Forecast** [07:32] — Bloomberg's consensus forecast is that Tesla could sell $24 billion worth of Semi trucks by 2030, with a quantity of 36,400 vehicles. The California voucher program has only given out five vehicles so far, indicating early stage adoption.
- **Revenue and Margin Projections** [10:22] — If Tesla can ramp to 50,000 Semis per year at an average of $280,000, that's $14 billion in revenue. With a 25% margin, this could generate $3.5 billion in operating income by 2030, higher than the host's previous estimate of $1 billion.
- **Updated Price Target** [13:14] — With the higher Semi operating income of $3.5 billion, the price target for Tesla stock increases to $589 by the end of the decade. This represents a $34 premium over the previous forecast of $555.
- **Optimus Robot Impact** [18:39] — Including Optimus robot revenue of $25 billion (selling 1 million robots) could increase the price target to $672, an additional 14% on top of the Semi truck impact.
- **Margin Risk Factor** [21:40] — The biggest risk factor is Tesla's low net margin of 5.3%, which justifies a PEG ratio of about 1.1, not the 2.25 used in the forecast. The real test for the stock will be margin recovery across all product lines.
- **Optimus in Healthcare** [23:31] — Elon Musk has suggested that Optimus and Grok could transform universal medical care by addressing the shortage of skilled surgeons, potentially lowering healthcare costs. This is a long-term vision, likely 20-30 years out.
- **Chinese Competition** [25:21] — Unitree, a Chinese robotics company, recently IPO'd on the Shanghai stock market at a $50 billion valuation. Chinese competition is a real risk factor to Tesla's Optimus outlook, as China continues to outmanufacture.

### Conclusion

Tesla's Semi truck, combined with California incentives and potential FSD and Optimus revenue, could significantly boost Tesla's stock price by 2030. However, the stock's valuation is heavily dependent on margin recovery and the realization of these optimistic projections.

## Transcript

with volume production expected soon. Uh, in this segment, we're going to does to the price target for Tesla stock. Tesla stock up 4% today on the news. And I have to say there's there's some exciting stuff going on. There are
some exciting stuff going on. There are currently images circ circulating of a Tesla semi-truckss getting tested with uh LAR racks which is one of the early uh LAR racks which is one of the early uh stages of really validating FSD
uh stages of really validating FSD for this type of body size. One thing to know is that Elon has told us that full self-driving isn't the highest priority for the semi-truckss right now and that there are many other priorities at Tesla
including the cyber cab launch which you know is expected uh you know within the next few weeks here but uh we know that in the long term probably once these actually hit volume production and volume sales FSD is going
massive fan of full self-driving. I think every single car should have full self-driving the way Tesla does. I hate when I get into a car that does not have full self-driving. I don't even really care anymore if a car is fast or has the
acceleration. Like I got the Cyber Beast outside. I got the Model S Plaid, you know, and then I got the Model X as well, although that's the 75 uh version, pretty good, you know. The Model X I think was 2.9 seconds 0 to 60. The Model
think was 2.9 seconds 0 to 60. The Model S is 1.9 rolloff subtracted uh 0 to 60 and the Cyber Beast, I want to say it's 2.5 to 60. So, I've got three Teslas with like massive speed and torque. We almost never step on it because we're
using FSD all the time. You turn on FSD, who freaking cares, you know? It's like I put it on chill mode, honestly, which is so weird. It's like the opposite I feel like of my personality, you know? I like I want the jet pilot, you know,
full throttle, baby. Uh but uh but I don't with FSD. I love these cyber cabs pretty cool. Whoever got his video, they did a great job. Uh it's actually very exciting. But seeing those racks on there does indicate that there is at
there does indicate that there is at least a team working on getting FSD for the Cyber Truck or um semi-truckss. Now, what's really remarkable here is that what's really remarkable here is that this can have a meaningful upside uh
impact on Tesla stock. We're going to do some math and value this out. But the most important thing that we have to talk about first is how California could
actually enable a lot of sales of these vehicles the same way that we saw uh basically solar and batteries get incentivized. So, the Tesla semi-truckss
incentivized. So, the Tesla semi-truckss are expected to sell for between 240 to uh two $300,000 per vehicle. Actually, it's two 260 to 300,000. And two variants are the expectations. So, a base model that has 300 mi of range and
base model that has 300 mi of range and a long range uh model at $300,000. Those are they they come in at roughly twice the cost of what a lot of companies pay for semi-truckss. But California is estimated to have
about $120,000 per vehicle of incentives, which is per vehicle of incentives, which is basically the entire extra cost for a basically the entire extra cost for a fully electric section
borne by the state of California. So, it would entirely make sense to litter the state of California like up and down the I5 or the 101 or whatever with Tesla semi-truck charging stations, probably more likely the i5 and milk sales in
California at, you know, probably 20 to 25% to see how how this could actually impact the stock. But what's remarkable is these cars, you put them on FSD, they'll be the safest possible out there
they'll be the safest possible out there and their cost per mile is expected to be substantially less than diesel vehicles because of the servicing aspect. Anybody who owns a Tesla knows these puppies basically never go into
service, which is really exciting. But let me give you some of the estimates right now. So, the estimates on uh I wrote down some of these notes from the institutional uh research that I've been reading. So, the current costs per mile
reading. So, the current costs per mile are expected to be 31 cents per mile for a Tesla electric vehicle semi-truck versus 67 cents for diesel, which if you think about it, over a hundred every 100,000 miles that this vehicle drives,
100,000 miles that this vehicle drives, you're saving $36,000. many miles are we going to drive a day? Well, let's assume they drive eight
hours a day, five days a week, right? At 60 miles an hour times five, that's about 2400 miles a week. At average working weeks with breaks and stuff like that, all somebody else could get in the truck is about 46.
else could get in the truck is about 46. It's about 110,000 miles per year. Let's just do a quick like fact check on that and see how many miles a semi-truck How many miles does a semir tend to drive per year? Right? So my
guess is 110,000 just based on that quick math. Damn, people are going to think I looked that up beforehand. I didn't. I just applied really quick basic logic. Okay. Uh a long range hall semi-truck typically
drives between 110 to 140,000 miles a year. Okay, obviously a fully autonomous vehicle in the future could do a lot more, right? I literally calculated an 8 hour day, 5 days a week, weekends off. Uh, and I I didn't include 6 weeks. So,
you could like triple the usage of these semi-truckss if they are truly fully autonomous, which is the, you know, long range goal. Now, you really have a robot on wheels. But every single year that puppy saves you $36,000 in maintenance
and fuel costs. That's really good because over 5 years that's $180,000. You got a free truck after 5 years. Especially after those Tesla credits, right? 5 years at $30,000 of savings, $150 grand, you know, 260
minus the incentives at 120 is 140. There you go. You paid for the truck. Long range model, maybe it take you a sixth year, whatever. That's fascinating. That's really interesting. Now, we'll have to see obviously how the
out. You know, this is still there there's still a road map to go through there's still a road map to go through here, but for long-term investors, this will come. I'm not concerned about that. Every time they have a new chassis, it
mean, look at what with the Cybertruck. When the Cybertruck first came out, there was no full self-driving. And a lot of people are like, "Oh my god, I just paid $120,000 FOR A CAR AND I DON'T HAVE FULL SELF DRIVING." It like it
comes now. It's got FSD and it's great. Like it's really good. Uh I feel like I don't even drive anymore. And I've been using autopilot, you know, since 2017. Uh one of the early, you know, Tesla YouTube fanboys, if you will. But
YouTube fanboys, if you will. But anyway, uh Bloomberg says the consensus forecast is that Tesla could sell $36 billion worth of these vehicles by 2030. Uh or sorry, I'm sorry, $24 billion worth of them and a quantity of 36,400
by 2030. So far, the California voucher program So far, the California voucher program has only given five vehicles out of,50 the vouchers. So, you know, this is like really early game on the SE uh
semi-truck revenue and how the California tax credits are going to work out. The California tax credits are also very complicated. There are, I want to say, like three or four different components that actually
go into them. There's the hybrid and zero emission truck and bus voucher incentive program. Freaking mouthful. Then there's the carb mandate which requires 5% of all of these trucks be zero emission starting in 2024 and
zero emission starting in 2024 and rising to 40% by 20 32. So there's a lot of regulatory push to get to these zero emission semi-truckss. That's why they're literally throwing state capital at these vehicles and Tesla and Tesla
shareholders would stand to be the beneficiary of those basically liberal handouts. It's like corporate socialism for the green vehicle mandate. You know, Donald Trump did the opposite, which hurt Tesla stock by taking away those
we'll give you more." Which fine, mean, corporate socialism, hey, you know, whatever. That's California for you. So, let's do a little bit of math on this. If let's say my my projections
for the semi-truck revenue, the last time I did this, I only calculated a semi-truck operating income of a billion dollars. That's operating income. So that's that's after, you know, cost of goods
that's after, you know, cost of goods sold. And uh my total forecast for the company doesn't even include uh robo taxi. I I consider this as just selling
vehicles, right? Like the cyber cab, let's say it's 99.9% good and they just sell it as that model 2, you know, like I'm doing that to be conservative. Some said there are not going to be robo cabs. Okay, I'm done listening. What a
loser." It's like the point is to build in some conserviveness. So obviously if the robo cabs work as fully autonomous, that's fantastic. What a big W, right? Uh, we need a you we need the Halo. If only the Halo guy could come in and say
big W, >> big W. >> big W. >> Anyway, um the semi-truck uh I had as bringing in operating income per year in 2030 of a billion dollars.
That might be low. Uh if they could do 24 billion in sales between now and 2030, they will have ramped to the point where they could potentially do 50,000 of these a year. you know, if you do 50,000 of these a
year at uh you know, call it an average of $280,000 and then of course they'll make more money on FSD subscriptions for this as well. $280,000 times $50,000 per
this as well. $280,000 times $50,000 per That's 14 billion in revenues. Okay, 14 billion in revenues. I'll put a 25% margin on it because the tax credit benefit is going to go to Tesla to the Tesla shareholder. A lot of it
to get a higher margin on these with the tax credit almost certainly. I mean, the benefit is not clearly only one person's economic benefit. The benefit is usually split, but I think the majority goes to Tesla. That's $3.5 billion of operating
income by 2030. That means I was really low at a billion if they could potentially pull off 3.5 billion here. Okay, so let's go to where's that
billion dollar semi-truck? Well, let me not change it yet. So my forecast at only trading uh trading for 2.25, which is still expensive and that's you know there's there's definitely a hope value built into that
valuation. puts me in a price target of about $555 with a billion dollars and no about $555 with a billion dollars and no robo cap, right? No robo taxing if I which you know obviously is um ignore the talk about combined. This is the
Tesla only sheet. Uh there oh I guess number anyway so it doesn't matter. Okay. A future value of 555 with a compounded annual rate of return of about 12%. with uh $1 billion of
operating income on the semi. If I now go in and I say, "No, no, no, no. We're actually going to go." So 555 is the number. Let's keep that in my our mind. We're actually going to have operating income of $3.5 billion. Okay, keep in
income of $3.5 billion. Okay, keep in mind FSD revenue is already at annual recurring here of 2.5 billion. So, I'm not going to add more in for semi-truck FSD revenue because even if you charge a lot more for the semi-truck FSD, which
business and businesses rip off other businesses, uh you you know 2 and a half billion is still, you know, we got to get up from like $700 million of annual recurring revenue on FSD. So, we still have a a
revenue on FSD. So, we still have a a little bit of work to do, right? So, uh let's go call that three and a half billion here. Let's update that sheet. billion here. Let's update that sheet. So the forecast then takes us to a price
$589. So based on three and a half billion, that works out to about a $34 premium that you get for this stock uh in in or
I should say in potential value for semi-truckss, you know, really cranking more than expected. Now, did I run that $ three half billion dollars at 20% or 25%? Let me just verify. That was yeah I ran it
at I ran it at 25%. So that's at 25% margins we get to three and a half billion and now of course that should grow as well especially as the grow as well especially as the infrastructure grows. So right now that
can increase our forecast for Tesla stock to about $589 by the end of the decade. Now, there's still, you know, these are these are really bullish these are these are really bullish numbers and these numbers do not reflect
the current analyst expectations because that is EPS growth uh or that would represent EP earnings per share of $8.72. Let's go see what Wall Street is currently forecasting because I I don't
currently forecasting because I I don't think it's anywhere near that high. So, think it's anywhere near that high. So, okay, analyst forecasts bring me to uh okay, analyst forecasts bring me to uh the end of 2030. I've got forecasts of
the end of 2030. I've got forecasts of 1 point Oops, let me get I'm still at percentage. Okay, let me just set this to number really quick to number really quick and then uh we will get to see what the
and then uh we will get to see what the analysts are thinking. So, a buck 70 for 2026, 227 for 2027, 328, 523, 760. That's currently where Wall
Street gets to. And keep in mind that's at a 2.25 peg. If you underwrite this lower at like, you know, a more of a manufacturer peg, it's going to be more
like times 1.4. And that's going to be a risk factor as well. If I put in 1.4 4 and I don't underwrite the optimist and the tech and stuff like that. I get to a a 2030 fair value, not even a today fair value of of basically where the price is
value of of basically where the price is now. So you are required to expect some form of increased PEG ratio there. But anyway, you can see my numbers here are
anyway, you can see my numbers here are let's see 8.72 divided by 7.6 six about 14 15% higher than what analysts expect right now for earnings per share and then you put the multiple on it. You put a low multiple on it, you know, a low
PEG ratio forecast, uh you're going to be a a lot worse off. The forecast be a a lot worse off. The forecast growth rate for Tesla right now sits at about 42% I want to say if I divide it by four,
it's actually gone down a little bit. 3363 44.3 59.57 45.15 divided by 4. Oh, no. Okay. Yeah, there. Oh, yeah, that's about right. 45% is the current forecast for growth. So, if I take their current PE, it looks expensive. 359 divided by a
PE, it looks expensive. 359 divided by a buck 70 is 211 PE divided by 45. Yeah, right now they're trading for like a 4.7 peg. So from a valuation today based on
where the the analysts are, it's it's overpriced. But if we build in some some of this enthusiasm on not just the semi-truckss, enthusiasm on not just the semi-truckss, but also on FSD revenue coming up and
getting to 4 million vehicles by the end of the decade, there's reason to see the the share price move higher. Now, I've been of the belief that post SpaceX Tesla would come down and and it has come down quite a
bit. Uh but some of that it's possible it could be getting closer to bottoming. Let's just look at the technicals for it. So, if we go to Tesla, we've just broken through 347 again today on the semi-truck news. But look at this
bottoming uh formation. We got an oversold here during the LEO drama. That's reasonable. uh now we've really built this sort of mid30s recovery which is exactly where the floor was during the peak of the
the floor was during the peak of the Iran crisis and also uh where we've seen a ceiling before the runup that we had in 2025. in 2025. So, you know, hey, if if it can really
get the FSD licensing cooking and we really get a lot more of these semi-truckss on and we get vehicle growth and we get, you know, the Optimus robotic future, which I do have built into here, I've
got for Optimus, which is still a while out, we saw the Unit IPO. It's down about, you know, 39ish% from its IPO. Of course, it it was underpriced and it skyrocketed. But what do we have from bots? So bots here, I actually have very
low income right now written in for bots on this estimate. So I don't even really have income from bots. Let me take this to 25 billion of uh that's bot revenue. to 25 billion of uh that's bot revenue. And that would give us Tesla bot income
And that would give us Tesla bot income of 6.2. If I pull in the bot, look at what the bot can do for you. the bot can take you even higher by 2030. And that's where the excitement is. So, I just went to 672 from 589, I think it was. Let me
to 672 from 589, I think it was. Let me see here. 589. Yeah. So, if I go 672 divided by 589, that's another potential 14% on top of that just from the bot. So, I didn't even have that in my 2030 estimates, which is also kind of useful.
It's more conservativism. So that's not bad. Uh if it could pull off again growing vehicle deliveries and that's probably where I defer from a lot of the analysts. Uh I've got a lot of people projecting, you know, 2 and a
half to 3 million vehicles by the end of the decade that the growth rate is vehicles. I don't think semi-truckss are units, right? So, you really have to assume a big push in vehicle growth to
get to the some of these numbers and that the Optimus actually sells in volume. I mean, 25 billion at 25,000 would be selling a million of these Optimus robots by the end of 2030. That's, you know, that's a lot. So,
let's let's write down some some bottom lines here. Okay. So, if I write down lines here. Okay. So, if I write down the bottom line and we say uh 1 million Optimus robots uh and 15 billion in semi- sales, that
uh and 15 billion in semi- sales, that could get us to about well and 4 million could get us to about well and 4 million total vehicles at 34K average gets us to total vehicles at 34K average gets us to a 672 target on the stock. If we uh
a 672 target on the stock. If we uh reducing out robots gets us to about 589 or something like that. I think it was 589 somewhere around there. Uh now
we can kind of start seeing okay all right that's that's where where our forecasts are assuming two and a half in high margin 2.5 billion in high margin high margin 2.5 billion in high margin FSD. If I go a little bit more barecase
here and I take out the FSD and I drop that and I take out the FSD and I drop that down a billy. So we only it's still impressive. We only double FSD by then. And Optimus is still an edge case tool.
Uh let's go take that down to I don't know. Let's go take it down to five billion. You know five billion edge. uh you know then we get back to that 592 range. So Optimus and FSD are are doing some of
some of the lift there and then of course the multiple for the company. You know it it I don't know that it justifies a 2.25 because its net margin is so low. Uh so the biggest risk factor
factor is uh what multiple uh does Tesla get? is uh what multiple uh does Tesla get? Net margins are low uh right now. Uh Net margins are low uh right now. Uh today's net margins are
today's net margins are uh 5%. 5.3%. uh 5%. 5.3%. That's terrible. Uh that justifies That's terrible. Uh that justifies like a you know 1.1 peg honestly like it
it justifies basically a one peg. Uh we're valuing we're valuing uh this at you know 2.25 25 uh for for a PEG multiple. So, you know, margins should expand again, margins are
should expand again, margins are forecast to have bottomed. Uh but even if margins triple by 2030, you're still at, you know, 14% on the lower side. So, at, you know, 14% on the lower side. So, so expecting that 2.25 multiple rerating
so expecting that 2.25 multiple rerating on just 14% net margins, not that great. We really this the the real test of the stock is going to be a margin story. The stock is going to be a margin story. The real test uh will be margin recovery.
You know what is the margin like on Optimus robots? What is the margin like on robo taxis? What's the margin like on the semirros? Uh and that's always been the story for Tesla. It's how much can we apply full
I remember when, you know, when Elon first sort of hinted, oh yeah, we're companies. We're in talks with a major OEM. The stock would skyrocket on that because people see that as, wow, that's high margin. People are willing to pay
for really high margin. The semi-truck has pro is probably going to have substantially better margins than the regular vehicles simply because California is doing this uh to uh to get those
green energy semi-truckss. You know, that's the whole sort of on Optimus. Another thing that's really interesting is there's now talk from Elon that Optimus and Grock could transform universal medical care in major
healthcare breakthrough. And the reason he's arguing this is because he argues that there is a shortage of skilled surgeons and doctors and that that is surgeons and doctors and that that is going to enable the Optimus robot to
basically take over medicine and provide skilled doctors which could theoretically lower the cost of healthcare. That's probably
a long shot in the near term. you know, that's probably a 20 to 30 year out, you know, like a couple generations out in my opinion. But the premise is really
exciting because I mean, think about it, you know, to be a doctor, you're going probably going to butcher this, but I'm four years bachelor, then you got to go to med school. That's probably four
years. Then you got to do your residency when you're basically new and you, you know, just actually really getting more hands-on experience following your your schooling. So, you know, what is that? That's four, you're 22 plus med school,
you're 26, your residency is done when you're 30, and you're, you know, 300 grand in debt. And that's probably just an appetizer. I'm probably missing some stuff that goes in there as well. So, I mean that's that's a long time to
or whatever, which makes sense. You know, it's a skilled industry. Uh, but that does show you, you know, there's there's a lot of real hope that could go course, there'll be a lot of competition. I mean, the Unitary robots,
we're looking at the IPO for Unitry uh this morning and Unitry went public uh in the Shanghai stock market. They already these robots. Uh, now you know how functional they are. I don't know. I
mean, here's like a tabletop one. Here's one that looks like it has like a weighted plate at the bottom on wheels. Here are a bunch of different versions you could buy. So, there will be Chinese competition. And I think that's probably
a real risk factor to the Optimus outlook for Tesla. I do believe that the Chinese will outman continue to outmanufacture us. And and even if that
means they're stealing our technology and and that's evil and darn you China, I think it's still going to happen. Like I'm already seeing BYD cars all over Europe and it kind of makes sense because they're just cheaper.
So, uh, and you know, with the tariff situation, it's almost more desirable for the EU to lean on China for the vehicles than on America. I mean, they already lean, I mean, you got BMW taxis and cop cars in in, you know, Germany,
know, it's locally produced. It's ironically cheaper for them than buying they don't even make those anymore. But anyway, Unitry is interesting because, you know, it IPOed at this, I think, $50 billion valuation. the ticker for them
like, "Oh, it's like there it is. I got it." It's six8, which is lucky 36. You actually see when it IPOed, it skyrocketed up to $1,100 and that's
where it's down like, you know, 40-ish% or whatever. Market cap's somewhere in the $30 billion range now. So, it's really come down mostly because, you know, you're really looking for margin, right? That's where it all comes from is
margin. Of course, if the Optimus could be a surgeon for you in the future, that product. I want it to be a high margin product. I don't want some, you know, cheap Barbie doll kind of robot that's taped together doing this. You know,
it's got to be a good surgeon. But the point is everything that we've talked about in the Tesla segment has been built on 2030 numbers and optimism for
Optimus and trucks. All of that margin still remains trucks. All of that margin still remains unclear. So when you compare Tesla stock to other companies, in my opinion, it's really important. you remember there's
there are 2026 fair valuation estimates for companies and then there are 2030 estimates. So, if you're comparing 10 different companies that you're thinking about investing in, generally what I like to
do is I like to look at what's the fair value today or maybe even at the end of forward that far. Tesla only has an earnings per share estimate of a buck 70
for the end of this year. you know, a buck 70 even at 45% growth at, you know, even if I give him, you know, well, at 5% margins, you should only give him a one peg. That puts them at like $70 for the stock, right? If you give them
generously, I think a 2.25 peg, it's $172 stock. So, that's not great. That's that's how in 2026 the fair value estimates tell you, you know, Tesla's whole price. It's because the difference between that
2026 estimate and 2030 is that there's a lot of hope excite, you know, expected for 2030. The problem is every time we have hope expectations for 2030, things expected. So, I think that's a fair way to to hedge when we look at um companies
>> Cool. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like see how it goes. >> Congratulations, man. You have done so you. Kevin Papraath there, financial analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. Always
analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.