[00:02] We're going to talk a little bit general sports betting on today's show. that maybe a lot of people don't tell you, and that's sports betting is hard. It is. Don't believe any of those commercials you see where the guys are
[00:16] playing a 10-team, 15-team parlay. I don't know anybody who bets for a if that's what you want to do, you want to have fun, go for it. people think. So, hopefully I could give you some pointers here and we can make
[00:30] you a better better. First of all, uh what I want to do is talk about sports betting overall. Um we all know there's a hold involved you're doing anything else in the casino. A lot of people just think if
[00:45] make money. Unfortunately, it's not that easy. You may know your certain team, and that's great. And it's hats off to you, you know all about your team. But in honestly, how often do you win when
[00:57] any sports book, you talk to anybody in the bar, everybody thinks they're a winner. I've done many many shows over the over the course of my 45 years in the industry. We're talking TV shows, we're talking movies.
[01:12] public, they all say, "Oh, I'm a big winner. I win 70% of the time. I do No, you don't. You may have a week a week or something that you do that well, but no, that's not how it works out. It's a grind. I'll
[01:25] getting into it, and if you don't have time to uh to do all the work for it, with playing for fun. If you want to play that 12-team parlay, you do that.
[01:37] to me, if you're going to put in the time, you want to make you know, you want to make money. You want to do the best you can cruise through life and
[01:49] uh and get away with things and just cruise on by, but if you really want to better yourself, you want to do the best that you can. And that's why I'm here work for a company that sells picks in WagerTalk, but we just want you to win.
[02:02] learn something from us, that's what we want to do. But I do want to say uh if you're betting sports, I'm assuming at this point you know what a what a money line is, all those things like that. You know what a favorite,
[02:17] So, if you don't, there's plenty of other videos out there that we have that can teach you that kind of thing, but if you want to treat it like a business got to do it just like you would anything else. If you're driving down
[02:30] the street and you see a coffee shop on the left-hand side, coffee shop on the right-hand side, same company, one is charging a dollar more for the coffee, other one. And that's the whole point about sports betting. You're trying to
[02:44] get the best deal possible. They call it uh EV. so uh that's what we're looking for. We're looking for EV, which is expected value. And if you have expected value in the long run, you can make some money
[02:58] long time. Like I said, I'm originally from Cleveland. We're doing this for 45 years and uh I learn something new each and every day. you don't want to be a follower. You want to be
[03:11] ahead of the crowd. If there's a game you want to bet and you wait around on it, chances are everybody else that knows what they're doing is going to be on that same side. So, if you're going to play any bet any
[03:25] betting, do it early. Like for football season, those lines come out Sunday night, Monday morning. You've got plenty of time to get on those teams, do your research, get them now because by the end of the week you may be laying 17 on
[03:37] a game you could have had at 14. That's a no-no. You want to get the best line possible. Also, while you're doing this, you want uh you know, especially for football, what key numbers are, that kind of
[03:50] thing. Certain teams and there are certain games end up 3 2. It's a little two-point conversions, but you want to know what the value of each point is. So, what we're going to do is try to look for your best value
[04:04] out there, and it's not just playing this playing the line. Is the Is the money line the better value? So, you want to know what like a minus six is against a minus six and minus 110 is against the money line in that regard.
[04:19] lines. There's a lot of places out there on the internet. We've got a great spot on our WagerTalk Odds Logic, our line service. It's a terrific line service. You can pay for it or you can get it for free, but you need to have that. And
[04:34] a look at what the smart books are. The places that take a big bet or the ones that are going to move the lines. Unfortunately, in this country right now uh a lot of the a lot of the sports
[04:47] books in the smaller uh smaller states, they don't have all the sports books in Las Vegas. Uh they they're really they're really they're going to cut you off, which means they're either going to cut you
[05:00] off you're not going to be able to bet or you'll be able to bet a lot less. So, and go to the legitimate places that could give you as much to bet as you want to bet. Also, when you're looking at
[05:13] at totals. You need to know what the key numbers are in totals. Football, three and seven. Anything that comes with the uh you're going to have those will be more of the key numbers.
[05:27] line, uh the lower the total on the game, the more value that total has. Uh so, the more value that line in the game has. So, if you've got a line in the NFL, it's seven
[05:41] the NFL, it's seven and the total is 54, that number seven does not mean as nearly as much for the underdog as it does if the line is 34. that the favorite in the game isn't going to score nearly as many points.
[05:55] And if you've got the underdog catching those seven points, that means much more those seven points, that means much more than it does in other instances. So, that you're going to learn as you go on, but main things are treated as a
[06:07] business and numbers are more important than better out there that makes a living betting on sports than just betting on teams. I hear it in the sports book all the time. I love the Eagles today. Okay,
[06:21] and they give all the reasons why. Legitimate reasons why, is. I may love the Eagles at minus five and seven and a half, I don't want any part of them cuz six and seven are two of the
[06:35] key numbers in the NFL. And the reason why I'm talking about the NFL is lot of people who'll be betting football for the first time or they'll be trying to increase their percentages while betting football. Those are things you
[06:49] need to talk about. Also, don't be afraid to bet underdogs. Everybody I know that makes money bets unders and underdogs. Uh not necessarily all the time, but if you look at your portfolio at the end of the week and at the end of
[07:03] the year, if you've got a lot more favorites bet and a lot more overs bet, it's really hard to do it. And the reason why is because everybody likes to see action. They want to bet on the best team. They want to get a game with a lot
[07:17] of scoring. It's exciting. It's fun. But if you're betting, you don't want fun. You want to win the game. I don't I don't watch a game for the enjoyment of watching the game. I watch the game because I want to make money. And most
[07:30] of the guys in this industry that have done it 20 years or more, that's the way something to keep in mind that you're probably getting the worst of the number especially when you're playing overs, and especially on nationally televised
[07:45] games or games involving maybe top 20 teams in in college or college football or college basketball, everybody knows the Clemsons that used
[07:57] to be the Clemsons in college football. Not so much lately, but everybody knows the Alabamas, they know the Ohio States, they know all those teams. You're always teams. Which brings me back to the betting
[08:10] early. If you like one of those teams, you like the USCs, you like Michigan, bet it Sunday night, Monday morning, cuz chances are that line's going to go up. number. And at the end of the week, hey, you don't like it, you can lay 11 at
[08:25] Michigan, take back 14 on who they're playing, such a set up for a nice It's a great way to make money, and that's another way to make money in sports betting is looking to to scalp. So, those are all other things that we
[08:37] can use here, but basically what we want to do is when you're betting on sports, You want to get the best of it. When you're playing slot machines, you want better payback, just like sports betting. Uh if you were to flip a coin
[08:52] you're going to go 50/50. If it's a if it's a non-weighted coin, 50/50. Uh pay attention to streaks. If you do that and it's a 50/50 thing, you've done it 100 times, and at the end it should come out closer to 50%, but
[09:07] you may start off with five, six, seven heads in a row. Does that mean the next head is going to have a better chance of being a head than a tail? No, it's sort the roulette table. Just cuz you got five reds in a row does not mean the
[09:21] blue or the excuse me, the black is is due anything like that. So, something to keep in keep in mind. This is all about numbers, and enjoy yourself when you're for a living, you've got to know what these numbers are and how important that
[09:35] Like I said, I've been doing it for 45 years. We've got a lot of older guys on on WagerTalk that that have done it just as long as I have or or pretty close. You want to be betting numbers instead of teams. If you want to bet your teams,
[09:50] that's fine. But if you're doing it for a living, you want to bet for money, big money, you're going to have to decide, am I doing this for fun or if I'm doing this to make an income? And hey, it takes a lot of time. This is my job. I
[10:03] spend pretty much all day long either reading or watching videos or watching games. So it's a lot of work goes into it. And I'm against my Cleveland teams more often than I than I bet on them. So you can't
[10:17] you're doing it for a living. If you want to be a fan, fine. Nothing wrong That way you won't get into hurt too much. Just don't bet too much in that regard. But our site on WagerTalk, we try to help. Even though like I said, we
[10:30] sell picks, we'd like you to to to purchase our plays. But if that's not fine. Um if if you don't want to do that, just try to learn how to make yourself a better better. That's what we do here.
[10:43] And we'll be doing more videos like this overall. So we'll continue to look at um if you're looking at baseball, for I I'm number one at WagerTalk over the last decade in baseball and hockey. The
[10:57] reason being, they're money line sports. I love betting money lines because I make my projection on how often this team is going to win the game. If I'm getting more than that from the sports book, I'm able to play that. If there's
[11:13] that's the favorite in the game with the star pitcher is a 250 favorite, a $3 favorite, they've got to win three out of four games in order to break even.
[11:25] That doesn't happen very often. We see it all the time. Especially with a team like the Dodgers. The Dodgers are a team that doesn't care about the regular playoffs. So, if you're going to lose you're laying 350 or whatever with
[11:38] something it's it may be fun to do cuz you think learn there's value on playing underdogs. Same with hockey, look for team look for teams the second of a back-to-back game that's an underdog or
[11:53] that's fully rested that may be off of a loss. players. Take a look at me. I'm not a professional professional sports guy, but I have played sports in my life. I
[12:05] know how it is. Certain teams you get up for, certain times you get upset that that in mind. Put yourself in the position of the players. Which games get up for? As the next week goes on, which team
[12:20] maybe will overlook? We see a lot of that. We call it look-aheads and and flat spots and you know, Marco D'Angelo calls them sandwich games. Uh that's the other things you can add on to the way you handicap, but as long as you know
[12:34] the value of every point and how that goes, you'll set yourself up really well because a lot of people just don't care. They don't want to bet on their team and Um so, what you want to look for is the best value out there. Like I said,
[12:49] gas and and over here it's 3 cents cheaper than it is over here, may not mean a lot to you, but you got a 20-gallon tank at 60 cents, you do that every week, you know, at the end of the year it's 300 bucks.
[13:01] wouldn't go into the store and buy a loaf of bread that's $5 if you can get dollars. So, it's common sense. We've all been through it. Uh especially when allowance, you only have so much money. That was the that's the smartest thing
[13:16] little bit of an allowance and see what he does with his money. That's what we are. We're just grown kids. We're sports fans. So, that's what what looking for We're going to go over through a lot more videos if you if you join us.
[13:30] There's a lot of them up there already, but we've got more coming this year and we'll do it for each individual sport and we'll continue on with that. So, best luck to everyone and uh we'll be back and we'll do a little bit more for
[13:43] right now, but just keep in mind you're either doing it for fun or you're doing everybody wants to make money. Good luck to everyone.