---
title: 'Scratch Off Odds: How to Increase Your Probability of a Win'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=Rjd6DODQ2XY'
video_id: 'Rjd6DODQ2XY'
date: 2026-07-15
duration_sec: 618
---

# Scratch Off Odds: How to Increase Your Probability of a Win

> Source: [Scratch Off Odds: How to Increase Your Probability of a Win](https://youtube.com/watch?v=Rjd6DODQ2XY)

## Summary

This video explores the mathematics behind winning scratch-off lottery tickets, examining strategies used by a Stanford PhD who won millions four times and a statistician who discovered numerical patterns. It tests common tips and tricks, concluding that while some methods like buying in bulk and calculating expected value can slightly improve odds, the house always wins in the long run.

### Key Points

- **Joan Ginther's Unlikely Luck** [00:19] — Joan Ginther won multi-million dollar payouts four times on scratch-off tickets, a feat with odds of once per quadrillion years. She has a PhD in math from Stanford, suggesting her wins were not pure luck.
- **Mohan Srivastava's Pattern Discovery** [00:50] — In 2003, statistician Mohan Srivastava discovered that winning Tic Tac Toe scratch-off cards had a numerical pattern: single numbers were more likely to win than repeated patterns. He estimated he could make $600/day using this trick.
- **Basics of Scratch-Off Tickets** [02:07] — Tickets range from $1 to $30. More expensive cards generally have better odds. About 10% of games have no prizes left, yet they are still sold legally. Players should check state lottery websites for remaining prizes.
- **Do Winning Cards Look Different?** [03:41] — The video's experiment tested whether winning cards have visual markers like white lines or numerical patterns. Statistical analysis showed any differences were due to random production imperfections, not a reliable indicator.
- **Buying in Bulk Increases Odds** [05:04] — Buying groups of cards (e.g., 10 in a row) slightly increases odds because prizes are evenly spaced throughout rolls. Manufacturers must limit winners to a set amount per run, so buying multiple cards from the same game improves probability.
- **Joan Ginther's Bulk Buying Strategy** [06:52] — Ginther purchased an estimated $2 million worth of tickets (80,000 tickets) and won $15 million. Buying in bulk increases the chance of hitting a prize, but requires significant investment.
- **Expected Value Calculation** [07:04] — Expected value is the total remaining prizes divided by the cost to buy all remaining tickets. For example, a $30 ticket with 8 million tickets left has an expected value of 82%, meaning you'd lose 18% of your money. Some tickets have expected values as low as 40%.
- **The House Always Wins** [08:31] — Overall, players lose about 70% of their money on scratch-offs. States keep about 30% of the $60 billion spent annually on lotteries. The statistician advised that no one can make a living from scratch-offs.

### Conclusion

While mathematical strategies like buying in bulk and focusing on high expected value tickets can slightly improve odds, scratch-off tickets are designed to favor the state. The best advice is to treat them as entertainment, not an investment.

## Transcript

$400 400 $400 the biggest one was for probability in real life but in this video I'm going to show you how to use math to increase your probability of winning scratch off tickets Joan Ginther
is famous for winning multi-million dollar payouts four times on scratch off tickets that kind of luck happens once every quadrillion years to give you an idea of how big a quadrillion is one quadrillion seconds was
31,700 th700 years ago but Jan's WIS weren't th700 years ago but Jan's WIS weren't luck she has a PHD in math from Stanford that gave her an advantage and later in the video I'll show you how she did it a
the video I'll show you how she did it a guy called Mohan Shava discovered in 2003 the winning tickets had a numerical pattern part of it was in stats so much as sleuthing about looking for patterns in the cards the secret he uncovered was
that winning scratch offs had a certain numerical pattern to them by using math he figured out what cards were more likely to win he estimated he could make $600 a day from his trick but that was a lot less than he could make as a
statistician these aren't the only people to gain the system there are many other hacks as well as numerical patterns on the cards there are a slew of tips and tricks on the internet like white lines on cards calculating odds
and expective value buying in bulk playing the more expensive cards but which ones work and which ones don't I listed the help with some friends to analyze the winning tickets we figured out which tips and tricks worked and
which did not to make this experiment scientifically sound I used a statistical test but don't worry I'm not going to show you the steps for the test but I will share the results I'll also show you the only technique that
guarantees you'll win [Music] something let's start with some Basics scratch off tickets range from a doar to
$30 they're deliberately made attractive and shiny to sell more you can play crosswords games like Monopoly or scratch off gold coins or dollar signs but not all scratch cards are created equal Don't Play Shiny or fun because
the more expensive cards have better odds some cards have zero prizes left in odds some cards have zero prizes left in fact at any time around 10% of cards
have no prizes left at all you don't want to play those games this money multiplier costs $5 if it states on it the top prize is $500,000 but you have a zero chance of winning the top prize because they've
already been won it's perfectly legal to keep on selling the tickets after all the prizes have been won so do a little research before you buy a ticket go to any state lottery website and see which tickets have zero prizes left so
assuming you've looked at your state lottery website and found the cards that you shouldn't be playing let's delve into the techniques that you can use to improve your [Music]
odds let's answer the question do winning cards look different Mohan Sher starver trick was to note how many times numbers appeared on Tic Tac Toe cards
Tic Tac Toe cards with single numbers were more likely to win cards with repeated pattern said fewer winners unfortunately that numbering pattern is no more there also used to be codes printed on the tickets to let you know
printed on the tickets to let you know what you'd want for example o n for one what you'd want for example o n for one or fty for 50 however these cards have been discontinued in our search for truth we sorted through this pile of
winners we looked for markers like white lines or numerical patterns we collected our data and ran a hypothesis test were the differences random or were those
differences statistically significant the result of our test was that any imperfections were likely due to random imperfections during production let's say your card does look different say it has a white line on it it's just a
random event but let's say we're wrong and you crack the secret code and figure out the winners do look different you can't see the card you're buying because they're on a roll the conclusion winning cards don't look different and even if
they do it won't up your odds of winning the next tip increases your odds a little bit buy groups of cards say 10 in a row of the same game you can even buy an entire roll of cards they're not actually on rolls they're kind of flat
this might cost you several hundred or more but there's actually some very good science behind this tip scratch off ticket prizes on are not random winners tend to be evenly spaced throughout the roles the manufacturer has a certain
dollar amount say a million dollars that they have to dispense throughout the game if they printed the prizes in a truly random fashion they could award tens of millions of dollars just by random chance they have to limit the
number of winning cards to a set amount they might have to award 250 winners in every th000 card run there will be some Randomness but not every fourth or fifth card is going to be a winner you can increase your odds of winning by buying
10 at a time but it's not a guarantee of a win I bought 10 in a row and they were all losers there's another good reason for buying cards from the same game the probability of winning increases every time you buy cards from the same game
imagine there's a million tickets in a game with one big prize if you bought 10 tickets your odds of winning are one in 100,000 if you bought 100 tickets your
100,000 if you bought 100 tickets your odds increase to 1 in 10,000 buy 1,000 odds increase to 1 in 10,000 buy 1,000 tickets and you have 1 in 1,000 chance of winning this is the logic that Joan Gunther used to win her Millions however
Gunther used to win her Millions however she didn't buy 10 in a row or even a thousand experts estimate she purchased $80,000 tickets worth $2 million or more
but she did win $15 million so it's not a bad investment I'm assuming you don't have $2 million to plump down on cards so you can use another of Miss Gunther's checks she also played cards with higher expected value expected value is kind of
like an average the calculation is the total amount of remaining prizes divided by the total amount of money in it will cost to buy all the remaining tickets to
explain how it works let's look at a specific card fastest road to a million has about 8 million tickets remaining at has about 8 million tickets remaining at $30 per ticket it would cost just over
$241 million to buy all the cards that are left divide the remaining prizes by the cost of buy and you get about 82% if you were to spend
$241 million on buying all the remaining tickets you'd only get back 82% of your money you'd lose 18% of it that's actually pretty good odds for scratch offs some tickets have an expected value
offs some tickets have an expected value as low as 40% you'll have a much bigger chance of a win if you play tickets with a higher expected value overall the vast majority of people that play scratch off tickets will lose 70% % of their money
the odds are heavily stacked against you and heavily stacked in favor of the state's gaining a lot of money they keep about 30% of the $60 billion spent on
about 30% of the $60 billion spent on lotteries every year so back to that statistician who had a pretty good trick for finding winning tickets he had some wise words for scratch off ticket players in an NPR interview he said he
didn't think anyone could make a living of of scratch off tickets so if scratch of of scratch off tickets so if scratch off tickets are your hobby then enjoy but if you're in it to win big then you might want to play a game with better
odds all right all right so what what did we win I won about 85 oh my God yes uh I've got $54 and would not have broke even they would have cost me 63 to buy
even they would have cost me 63 to buy them wow are you the big winner oh my gosh $13 worth out of
$63 worth of tickets but I scratched a whole lot more oh gosh we whole lot more oh gosh we scratch oh so oh my gosh I mean I'm in the hole like $400 400
$400 was for $50 one big one and we didn't get any I was kind of split my wins but get that was like okay this is like really sad I'm like
going to split split the winnings and I'm getting the cards I'm getting the cards back