[00:01] close. In this video, I'm going to show you the three steps so you can day-to-day sports betting. Let's go ahead and start with step one. Step one is finding the true probability and getting your edge. It's the first most
[00:15] and you need to find when you're looking for a play. True probability is the percent of the event actually occurring. How do we find what the true probability is on any given play that we're looking at? First thing you need to look at is a
[00:30] people get this wrong. They think they should be looking at the last 10 or last 15. That's not what you're looking at. You're looking at a season hit rate here, okay? This is primarily for finding an edge when you are using
[00:43] player props. You're looking for a season hit rate, okay? That season hit season hit rate, okay? That season hit rate needs to be written down along with the matchup rate as well. So, let's use a baseball player for example. We're
[00:55] going to look at hits here, okay? Let's say Ohtani cuz everybody loves Ohtani, right? We're going to say Ohtani for an example for him just to get a hit. How for him to get a hit. Let's say his season average is pretty much for
[01:10] percent-wise of him getting a hit is 75%, okay? On any given night, doesn't matter who's pitching, regardless, he has a 75% probability just to get a hit. But now let's say the pitcher that Ohtani is facing on any given night,
[01:23] let's just say he's facing a pitcher matchup that favors him. Let's say he's faced this pitcher 10 times and he was able to get a hit seven out of those 10 times off of this pitcher. Now, because he's getting seven out of 10 times he's
[01:36] faced that pitcher, let's say he got a hit, that doesn't mean it's 70% of the time. That doesn't mean we add 70% here. That's not how it works, especially with do that. So, realistically, he's guaranteed to get at least two at bats
[01:48] we're going to use two as an example. And if after every 10 times that he faces this, he gets a hit seven out of those 10 times, we have to do that equation and add this to the 75%. That essentially translates to a match-up
[02:00] percentage there of 85% because of his match-up. Now, if we get the quick median here between these two, that would give us an 80% chance, okay? That would be his true probability for him to get a hit because of his season hit rate
[02:12] along with his match-up rate. So, now we have a true probability of 80% here, which translates into odds being minus 400. Now, if we find anything below minus 400, that's where we create our edge at, which is the next step here,
[02:24] which we're going to do. We're going to find our edge. So, let's say a sports book has him listed at minus 200 to be able to get a hit. That's an implied probability of 66%. But, we have a true probability now of what? 80%.
[02:37] This number should be minus 400. We're able to get it at minus 200, creating a able to get it at minus 200, creating a 14% edge there, okay? That gave us a 14% edge gap. Now, once you find these type of plays, this is where you're going to
[02:50] be able to compound this over time and actually be profitable. That's why I try to explain to people, this is your first step that you have to look at, okay? This is the main strategy that goes behind everything. You have to find
[03:04] yourself a true edge and you have to have true probability. Once you put gap right here, this is where you become profitable over time. That's where your ROI starts to build and your percentage
[03:19] don't understand that. They even just look at the odds and they just like, "Oh, well, I'm not going to bet that because the odds are too high." If it has an edge, it doesn't matter. If it has an edge, you can compound that edge.
[03:32] going to show you something a little bit later that's going to make you that all comes together. But, let's go ahead and get into step two. Step two is once you have that true probability
[03:44] strategy down with your edge, you have to incorporate your bankroll discipline in the mix, okay? Along with your emotional control, hand in hand that you have to incorporate. You can have the best
[03:59] but if you don't have the right bankroll discipline or emotional control, that is never going to jail and you're going to lose money regardless. So, your bankroll should be I'm just throwing it out there, okay? Your bankroll should be at
[04:13] least $1,000 if you're trying to be anywhere in the sports betting realm. Should be at least $1,000, okay? Now, percentage-wise of what you should be betting per bet needs to range from 1 to 5%, okay? And it doesn't change from
[04:27] to 5%, okay? And it doesn't change from that. It has to stay between 1 and 5%. $1,000. Sounds like $10, $50 bets. But guess what? That is where you're at if you're at $1,000. Deal with it. That's
[04:40] where you're at. If you have $100,000, then obviously your unit size is bigger. You have to understand that what you have is what you have to make money with. You can't think you're going to take $1,000 and make a million dollars.
[04:53] It's not going to happen. That's a lottery mindset, and there's a reason why everybody stands in line and thousands and thousands people stand in line to put in their $2 tickets to win the lottery and never win, because they
[05:05] going to I'm going to win a billion dollars off of two bucks. It's never going to happen, all right? That's why I'm here to tell you the truth. And just to spit it to you plain and simple. If you have $1,000, if you have 5,000, if
[05:18] you have 10,000, 100,000, whatever it is, you stick to the same rule. Doesn't matter, okay? There's levels to this, and if you're at this level, that's that you're not going to make a crazy amount of money, okay? Your unit size is
[05:32] it's going to be. You know how many people right now are betting $200 per play and they have $1,000? Guess what? They lose three or four plays, they basically have nothing left. You cannot do that. You can't bet like that. If you
[05:44] bet like that, it doesn't matter with the right recipe or not, when you hit a downswing, you will clean yourself out and then you'll be there with your thumb what do I do? I don't know what to do." So, that's part of it. Emotion is the
[05:58] second part. Okay? Because how sports betting goes is it's just like this, okay? It's a wave. Goes up and down. That's exactly how sports betting goes. Okay? Now, you feel like you're on top of the world when you're here. You feel
[06:11] like a loser when you're here. Then you're back up here, and back down here again. Back up, back down, right? That's the way sports betting goes. minute you're happy, 1 minute you're not. 1 minute you feel like you can't
[06:25] lose a bet, the next minute you feel like you can't win a bet. But this what is your average sports, okay? This is your average sports. Do you want to know what happens when you incorporate having a true probability and having an edge
[06:37] and only playing those type of plays? This is what happens, okay? See this line right here? Starts to just do this and goes just like that. Okay? the time, okay? Not not incorporating the strategy that I'm teaching you
[06:50] today. There's none of that, okay? It's just strictly one way, and that way is go. And I've been able to prove this to you guys on YouTube for years. I've literally showed you guys exactly how to do this years on years end and showed
[07:04] you exactly proof behind it where I have posted multiple multiple plays where Okay? Just realize this, when you start this journey, you are going to be down here, okay? But if you stay with this strategy
[07:19] throughout your sports betting career, and you stay with the right bank roll discipline, the right emotional control, don't get caught up in this right here. going to end on top. So, there's only one way to go. There's only one way to
[07:33] I'm teaching you here today. Now, before we get to step three here, what I do want to discuss is yes, it's time consuming to find true probability plays that have an edge. It will take you manually all day long find those plays.
[07:47] Luckily, I came out with the Line Maker AI. The Line Maker AI does all the work for you and literally spits out the answers cuz it has my ideology baked free trial so you can see for yourself and just see how everybody else on this
[08:00] channel is constantly winning and putting comments down below of them winning and using the AI. It's free to try. So, guess what? It doesn't cost you anything to give it a shot just to see what it's about. Click the link in the
[08:12] description today so that way you guys can see exactly the power behind that. you got to do is get the answers, put in the bets, and go about your day. It's that simple, okay? I've made it that simple for everybody. Now, let's go
[08:25] ahead and get to step number three here because this is the problem. When you do I just taught you, okay? And you're sports betting, what's going to happen here is you're going to run into this,
[08:38] getting banned, getting limited. Guess what? You can't stop it. There's no way to stop any of this. It's not, okay? They're getting worse and worse as the years go on. You used to be able to fly under the radar. Now, you can barely fly
[08:52] under the radar. Now, you can barely fly under the radar with $250 unit size bets until, guess what? They eventually start to clinch up and then they start limiting you. And then, just like me, regular sports books, like I'm getting
[09:06] right? That's why I'm not even using them. So, what you want to do is you living in a time right now where there's prediction markets, okay? Prediction markets like Aussie, No Vig, Poly Market, okay? What these are No Vig.
[09:21] There you go. What these are is prediction markets are like poker tables, okay? Let's say we have table here, okay? We have 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 nine
[09:33] Everybody's putting their money in the pot. Everybody puts a little bit in, okay? There's a bunch of money here. Whoever wins this pot gets all that market is. This is why you can never get limited here, okay? You just need volume
[09:49] there's volume within a game that you're looking at, a game that you're betting on, then you can bet as much money as you want, of course correlating to your bankroll discipline. You can bet as much you want because if you have a hundred
[10:01] thousand dollar bankroll, half a million dollar bankroll, and you're betting you Regular like regular sports book, you're going to get you're going to be done stop you, okay? Prediction markets doesn't happen. You can literally put
[10:13] these in daily, okay? This is sports betting transitioned into day trading now. Where you could literally take fifty thousand dollars if you wanted to and put it on a game here at Kalshi, okay? If you had the bankroll to sustain
[10:27] consistently. You could bet fifty thousand dollars on games because the volume is there for mostly every single game that you'd be looking at. That is where the future is at, okay? This is where you're going to be able to make
[10:39] unlimited money. You're going to be able to make so much money that you're not going to have to work a regular job if you know what you're doing. Day traders use the stock market. We use the prediction markets now. That is how it's
[10:51] transitioned, okay? The sports books pretty soon they should evaporate cuz there's no there's no need for them. No, I have no use for them, okay? The only chasing the lottery tickets. Those are the only ones that are going to be
[11:04] consecutively using those sports books and still trying to hit those lottery tickets that they're never going to get, okay? Once everybody transitions into sports betting should be and it should
[11:17] like day trading, okay? I'm going to write that here so everybody sees that. Should be treated like day trading. Once everybody realizes that, then it's over, okay? It's over. All we have to do is weed out the fish in the circle, okay?
[11:31] there's always a fish. There's always somebody at the table that don't belong money. Same thing is going to happen here with sports betting. We just got to to be the fish that are out there that have favorite teams, favorite players,
[11:46] on that stuff regardless, no matter what. And we're going to take all of strategy that I just showed you here today of true probability with your edge in finding your edge, you are able to have an advantage over the entire field.
[12:01] Okay? And only the people that are watching what I'm teaching are going to win. While we're going to be taking everybody else's money. Okay? It's going everybody else's money while they're sitting there being the fish. Okay?
[12:14] going to come in, and we're going to take everything. That's how it's going watching if you watch my channel, if you took notes on all my videos, this is that's going to be the future of sports betting. Okay? And we are going to lead
[12:28] the charge in that. As always, guys, I'm Frank La Magna Sports. I'll see you guys Frank La Magna Sports. I'll see you guys in the next video.