[00:01] right into it. >> Man, let's do it. Let's go inside the Schultz here for Inside the Trade and let me know where you guys are at there are looking at there in the chat. You know, we kind of made it through
[00:13] earnings. You know, somehow we survived and we made it through the most important earning season of our lifetime. So, now you know, we got up down the shoots this week and so it's kind of a bit of a lull now having
[00:26] gotten through, you know, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon etc. So, what I want to do today as we all get ready for SpaceX tomorrow to kind of hear how much money they're losing. Let's go ahead I wanted to I want to do a similar
[00:39] strategy to what we did last week. So, if you take a look at If you take a look at Let me grab my See if I can grab my drawing tools really quick. last week. I think we did this guy on Friday, if I'm not mistaken.
[00:53] Like if I go ahead and grab Yeah, this little Meta deal that we did. earnings kind of rubble trade, right? Like after the earnings have been released, the binary event is over. And so now we can
[01:06] go ahead and we can step in when volatility is still relatively high and premium standpoint. That's exactly what we did with Meta and it's working out. I you know, being a short-term contrarian, like I love opportunities when a stock
[01:20] is way up or a stock is way down. I really really like to take the other punishment. Like it just doesn't feel right if I'm not permanently seated in the pain cave. And so it's working out so far in Meta, but sometimes when you
[01:33] do do that, you got to be ready for the old damp underoos. And so for Meta here though, the short put spread is working out okay. So, 535 530. We did this trade last time. It's getting really close to 50% of max profit. I'm not going to
[01:47] guys a reason to watch from Theory to Practice later today at 2:30 Eastern, Practice later today at 2:30 Eastern, 1:30 Central. I I to do the same trade in Apple. But was Meta So, hold on. Meta I think was Friday,
[02:01] right? Let me look at uh Let me take a look at my chains here really quick. So, Meta was 731. Yeah, that was Friday. We did this guy earnings on Thursday. So, again, I really like an opportunity where, you
[02:14] binary event. I mean, I like getting in wrong. Like again, I rarely see see a stack of cash that I want to at least try to set ablaze. Well, sometimes we're not able to, but our hit rate is pretty
[02:27] high if you've been following the show for any length of time. But still, you through the earnings. It's like, man, you might still have some elevated actually in Meta up here with an IV rank of just about 50. And so, I want to do
[02:40] the exact same thing with Apple here today because again, Apple has been beaten down. Like Apple has just been taken out behind the woodshed, and it's buying iPhones. Like yes, sure, the iPhone 17 and the
[02:56] course not. Are they exactly the same? Of course. But we're buying it. We are 100% buying it. And so, I think there could be an opportunity to play Apple to the upside as well. And then of course, you know, tomorrow we've got SpaceX. I
[03:09] tomorrow. SpaceX Earnings are tomorrow. So, you're not going to want to miss Inside the Trade to miss the show tomorrow morning because I will give you a fadeable
[03:24] opportunity at 10:00 Eastern, 9:00 Central on the dot. Well, I mean, the show begins at 10:00, right? I begin my analysis at 10:02, and we typically get to the trade around 10:11 to 10:13. So, somewhere kind of in that range. And so,
[03:38] for the show tomorrow. But we'll do SpaceX tomorrow. There Wait, wait, wait. You guys I see you guys in the chat already putting in some work, man. Look at you guys. Oh, Daniel is here. Sam L is here. Ranch is here. Man, look at
[03:50] Sergio and Wolf Wolf and Gapper, Kristoffer Springer in the house, Andreas is here. Man, Jared Kramer is here. Man, I appreciate you guys. Guys, This is crazy. I don't think I've ever seen this before.
[04:04] SpaceX already pays a dividend. That's not even Wait a minute. Wait a isn't even right. Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Something dividend. Hold on. I'm going to grab So, let's grab a third color just because we
[04:17] dividend 12 24 25. possible they paid a dividend as a private company like to their private certainly happens. But, I'm looking at this and I'm like, "Okay."
[04:33] It's an IPO stock. Typically, IPO stocks, especially the ones that are hemorrhaging cash like SpaceX, they don't usually pay dividends because their dividends because they're hemorrhaging said cash. And so, general
[04:46] generally speaking, you don't typically see, you know, the money printer on at the company to ship out those dividends when the company still needs to kind of get its feet underneath it. And so, SpaceX apparently is already paying
[04:58] want to hear more about that on the other earnings tomorrow on on 8/4. But, are you guys seeing this? Like, pull up SpaceX in your platform and let me know. Let me know in the chat if you guys are seeing the same thing that I'm seeing
[05:11] because I want to know. The algo wants to know. And yeah, let us know. So, Frank is is already front-running our our comment canvassing. And so, no, people tell us cuz I think SpaceX might pay a dividend. And so, that's crazy
[05:26] stuff. But, again, we'll learn more tomorrow from the great one himself, Mr. Elon Musk. And so, okay, let's go ahead and let's do Okay, let's go to Apple. So, we go to Apple. If we do
[05:40] go to the trade page. I am thinking >> [clears throat] >> excuse me, August 10th. like an actual dividend. Again, let's look at that really quick. So, Apple,
[05:54] cents. All right, don't spend it all in one place, but here's your 27 cents. Thanks Thanks for being part of the team. And I mean, again, there's a BEU. We got to make this stuff real. We got to make it
[06:06] tangible. And the bonefish equivalent unit is the best way to do that. But that comes on down the chutes on August 10th uh, for Apple. What I want to do here, so take a look at the IV rank for Apple. It is 60.
[06:20] So, we still have a pretty elevated IV rank. All right, we still have a pretty elevated level of volatility that we can sell even after the binary move. And again, you know, Apple has gotten absolutely rinsed from the earnings
[06:33] call. And I think the earnings call was uh, was actually really positive. In thing. So, a good friend of mine, this was like a few days ago. It was maybe Wednesday or Thursday last week. We're out having
[06:46] going to love this. So, I'm talking to a buddy of mine who he's not really He doesn't really I mean, he might invest for a long term like indexes, whatever, but he's not really too well versed in the market,
[06:59] these things and he We start talking about SpaceX earnings. And he was like, earnings because I really feel like, you know, they're undervalued. I really feel earnings and I want to get in before the earnings call because when they report
[07:14] earnings and it's positive, the stock is going to go up. And I said, honestly, Mike, it's actually not how it works. And he was like, how is that not how it works? I'm like, well, in the short term, you'll be shocked to find that the
[07:26] market reaction on any given day or any given Sunday for my Willie Beamen fans that might be watching this morning, anything could happen. Literally it is typically higher because of the upward trajectory, positive risk
[07:39] premiums, whatever, but day-to-day, week-to-week, man, you have no idea. I actually told him, I said, "If I gave you the SpaceX numbers beforehand, I don't think you can make any money." Like I don't think you would know which
[07:51] cling on to. You don't know what the market's going to grab on to. He didn't the craziest thing I've ever heard. There's no way that's true." So like either that night or the next night, I think it was that night, Apple reported
[08:03] they were amazing. They were incredible. They're like, "Yep, people still buying the iPhone 11. We We made it a little bit smaller. We made it a little bit keep buying it." And what does What did the stock do? It went down by 10%. It
[08:18] article to Mike and he was like, "That's crazy. That doesn't make any sense. I'm And I said, "Well, that's absolutely true." I said, "But I said, "But when it "Yeah, you really you really don't know." So anyway, I thought you guys
[08:33] would get a kick out of that. But if we go to Apple, let's get back to soapbox and get off some tangents. Let's get back on the reservation. So if we go to September, 46 days to go. You know, I'm kind of thinking we just
[08:45] don't think we need to reinvent the wheel. Like I think this is a fairly straightforward situation. Again, as a short-term contrarian, you know, I see the gap and I see the crap and I'm like, "Yep, that's a buy opportunity." Right?
[08:58] Fairly very very fairly fairly straightforward in my humble professional personal and possibly quite wrong opinion. And so I'm going to go in here and I think we just do a put spread. I mean, I'd love
[09:11] to sell a put, but my account's not quite big enough to handle that. I mean, I could sell, you know, like if I sold like a 285 put, uh you know, that's $4,000, right? That's a little over 10% of my account.
[09:23] It's not crazy crazy crazy like out of the question stuff, but it still is a am talking about Apple. I mean, this is arguably one of the quote-unquote safest stocks in the uh in the market. I mean, I hate to label any stock as
[09:37] nothing is safe. Not even Not even Snapchat. when it comes to thinking about I mean, this isn't like Nvidia, this isn't like AMD, this isn't Micron, this isn't SanDisk. And so, I wouldn't feel as
[09:50] nervous about doing something naked in here as I might in one of those stocks. position sizing, and you want to bump it up to, you know, 8%, 9%. That's okay. But, over 10% in my opinion, especially with an individual name, not really
[10:04] something I'm super uh interested in uh doing. So, let's go ahead and uh let's sell this put spread, and then I see you guys in the chat. that chat. Man, let's take a look at where you guys are at. They're in the
[10:19] wait, I got to set up the put spread. Let's do uh Yeah. 390 300 295. 390 300 295. So, this is uh this isn't okay short put
[10:34] spread. Uh I mean, the probability of profit I mean, 59 60%. That's great. P50 of 70 72%. It's moving around, obviously, as the market moves around. sense. A little bit of positive theta makes sense. Maximum profit is going to
[10:48] obviously, makes sense. And then your maximum loss is going to be the the difference between the width of the spread and your maximum profit. And so, that is going to also line up with your buying power effect on a defined risk
[11:00] strategy. So, all of that looks good, it all checks out. Like that's all good to trade, though, is I'm only collecting right around 1/3 bit over 1/3 the width of the strikes. But, when it comes to defined risk
[11:13] strategies, just the way that I like to do it, I like to be more like 40% the that later on down the road, I'm not going to have as many adjustment challenging to adjust the strategy later on. This is kind of a set it and forget
[11:27] forget it, I mean, I'm going to be be about it, you know, about every 90 minutes or so. But I'm not going to be able to adjust the strategy as easily or as, you know, seamlessly as I might like a strangle or even like a short put or
[11:40] ratio or basically anything undefined risk. And so to me, risk control on entry and also kind of balancing the risk reward ratio on entry is a little bit more important when it comes to defined risk strategies. Now, for every
[11:53] gimme, there's a gotcha. And so the gimme of the greater returns and, you know, kind of better control over the risk reward ratio does come with a corresponding gotcha. And in this case, it's going to come with a lower
[12:05] probability. So if I move my put spread up from 300 to 95 to 305 300,
[12:17] actually over 40% the width of the strikes and my probability is just slightly above 50%, slightly above 50/50. And the P50 is looking good at about 65%.
[12:31] minutes before the show when the market was open and based on where Apple was at lower credit and a little bit higher probability. Right now I'm getting higher credit and lower probability. And it's kind of making me maybe move back
[12:45] to the 300 to 95. Uh and this is what's great about dynamic. Like you can change your mind on a dime. Right? And whether you do a 305 300 spread or 300 to 95 spread, I'm not sure that's going to move the needle
[12:57] too much at the end of the quarter or month or year or day for that matter too much. But generally speaking, I don't want to be around 1/3 the width of the but it's a little bit too low for my liking. Yeah, I think I am going to go
[13:12] back to the 300 to 95. So we just lost 3 minutes of our lives that we'll never doing it. And so the 390 or I'm sorry, the 300 to 95, we can get it for about a dollar 80. Yeah, I mean, let's see if we can get
[13:26] filled at $1.80. See if we can push this guy out. much on this guy. because we are currently inside the trade.
[13:39] And when you are inside Okay, we got filled at $1.78. Okay, I mean, at 1/3 the width of the strikes is 37. So, we were kind of between the 1/3 marker and the 40% marker, you know, a little closer to the 1/3 marker than I
[13:51] okay. If it's good enough for government work, it's uh it's good enough for us. And so, all right, let's go ahead though. I see you guys in the chat. Man, let's go. Man, look at you guys, man. I'm going to go ahead and I don't
[14:05] beginning, but I do see you guys in the house. I see Or Daniel. I think today. It's extremely high today. It is very, very high today. close that EEM and head to Bonefish." Well, you need to watch. I do Oh, man,
[14:20] look at that. Wow, not going to do it now because that content is not going to practice. And so, you guys are going to have to come back later to uh have a didn't think we were going to Bonefish tonight, but apparently again, markets
[14:34] move and things change. But I'm going to go to Donald Chrisler near the end here. what's going on there, my friend? Donald says, "Any ideas on Target? It has been let's take a look at it really quick. Um I only have a couple of minutes to
[14:49] go, and so, yeah, Target up four bucks. Let's take a look at uh you know, the history. Yeah, I mean, there you go. And so again, I know this is crazy. I know this is like bonkers, ballistic, banana stuff. But when I look at this,
[15:02] rarely see something that is so obviously obviously bearish. Obviously bearish because I don't want to buy high and sell higher. I want to Now again, I mean, the momentum bros and the breakout bros, they look at that.
[15:17] base. You just made a new higher high. differently. And the beautiful thing is, that's what makes a market. Like that's what make a That's what makes a market, as they say. And so, when I look at
[15:29] this, I would absolutely, unequivocally, want to get bearish on this trade. Now, course, Donald, but when I look at this, I would be wanting to do something bearish. Now, the great thing about Target
[15:42] earnings on August 19th. So, I'm not going to do anything now, anyway, because you're right in that weird spot where I do something today and then, you going into earnings. I don't really want to mess with all that. But, if I was
[15:55] know, you could go into September, you could probably do something naked in here. I mean, because it's only a $148 stock. I mean, you could sell like you could sell a 160 call. Yeah, it's only 1,800 bucks. I mean,
[16:09] I mean, they're just giving them away. 1,800 bucks on a naked call in Target? Man, that's phenomenal. Uh the pop is 50 77%. The P50 is 91%.
[16:22] for my mental records. Uh you've got a credit of $3.85. I mean, I really like that strategy a lot. Now, maybe you don't want to just sell the call. Maybe being, you know, naked uh short a naked call. That's fine. You could sell both
[16:35] and you could skew it a little bit to the downside if you want to play it to to the upside if you want to play it to the upside. It's going to be your I wanted to do like a strangle, let's say, in the final seconds of the show,
[16:48] you know, maybe I did like a 165 uh 130. you know, the buying power's even less because I moved that call further out. My pop is actually quite similar to what it was, a little bit lower, but now I
[17:01] have a lot more credit to work with and I'm still a little bit bearish. And some strategic than just selling one side of the market. It all depends on how hopefully that helps give you a couple of things to think about. And uh yeah, I
[17:14] appreciate you guys. I appreciate you guys very very much.