---
title: 'NFL Picks Week 1 2026 | NFL Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=JdWZbAQback'
video_id: 'JdWZbAQback'
date: 2026-09-14
duration_sec: 2737
channel: 'Guy Boston Sports'
---

# NFL Picks Week 1 2026 | NFL Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props

> Source: [NFL Picks Week 1 2026 | NFL Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props](https://youtube.com/watch?v=JdWZbAQback)

## Summary

The video provides a comprehensive breakdown of the NFL Week 1 Sunday slate, offering predictions on game outcomes, totals, and player props. The creator emphasizes a game-by-game analysis, with a particular focus on the Cowboys vs. Giants matchup, where he leans toward the Cowboys covering the spread but prefers the under due to the Giants' likely game script.

### Key Points

- **Introduction and Promise of Full Breakdown** [00:01] — The creator introduces the video and promises a full breakdown of every NFL Week 1 game, including predictions on sides, totals, and player props.
- **Call to Action and Pinned Comment** [00:58] — The creator asks viewers to hit the like button and mentions that final plays will be in the pinned comment.
- **Cowboys vs. Giants Analysis** [41:35] — The creator discusses the Cowboys vs. Giants matchup, noting that the Giants are being 'slept on' but that the Cowboys have more offensive firepower.
- **Prediction and Total Recommendation** [43:11] — The creator predicts the Cowboys will win, but recommends betting the under because the Giants will likely try to control the clock and keep the game low-scoring.
- **Social Media Shoutout for Player Props** [44:21] — The creator mentions that player props for this game will be posted on his Instagram and Twitter.
- **Conclusion and Sign-Off** [44:46] — The creator wraps up the video, encouraging comments and disagreement, and signs off.

## Transcript

Alright YouTube, how you doing? Welcome back to the channel and welcome into week number one here in the NFL. We have the Sunday slate to dive into in today's video and like we always do, I'm going to dive into each and every one of these games.
I'll break them down. I'll give you my prediction on the side. I'll give you my prediction on the total. We'll talk about any other plays like player props that we like with any game as well. But as always guys, make sure to keep an eye down on the pinned comment of this video.
That's where you'll find all of my final plays, so that I'm actually rolling with myself. If that does interest you, if you do want to fade me, all of that, absolutely free, down in the pinned comment.
And remember, more chins, more wins. All right, guys. Now, before we do dive into these games, I want to ask you guys to go ahead and hit that like button. Actually, smash that like button if you are as excited as me.
The NFL is officially back. Hit the subscribe button if you are new. And then last but not least, drop all of your favorite plays for this Sunday slate down in the comments. Not only for my selfish needs and wanting to see where the community is, engaging where you guys are seeing some value and stuff like that,
But also, you're going to be helping out a ton of other people that are looking for some additional plays down in the comments section. Looking under rocks they might not have looked under. Looking at some angles they wouldn't have considered. So drop your favorite plays down in the comments.
Looking forward to reading all of those for these week number one games. All right, what do you say we go ahead and dive into game number one here? Starting off with the Bengals taking on the Bucs. Now, these two teams historically start seasons very different, right? The Bucs kind of get off to a hot start, and the Bengals not so much.
They drag their feet. Joe Burrow does have all of his weapons healthy, whether you're looking at Jamar Chase, Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, even Iosifis. Like, there's a plethora of options for him to go to. The offensive line I still do have my concerns about,
but they beef up the defense a little bit there, right? And on the Tampa Bay side of things, a new look offense, and just mainly because no more Mike Evans. Now, Ibuka's good to go another year older. Chris Godwin's good to go back fully healthy, right?
You have Jalen McMillan. He is questionable, but I imagine he plays here. Kate Otten, a decent offensive line. So who do we like in this one? Well, before we do get to that, I do want to start with what my kind of gut reaction and main look at is in this game,
right? And it's going to be that under 50 and a half. Now, I'm not trying to sit here and act like these offenses stink or anything like that. No, there's tons of weapons. Joe Burrow's filthy. Baker Mayfield at any given moment can be filthy, right? But what I do like is the potential for
some serious pressure on the quarterback here. Now, we know that this Cincinnati offense has allowed pressure and allowed sacks year over year over year, right? But Tampa Bay is a team that loves to blitz.
They will go out there and do that even when you know it's coming fourth in terms of pressure rate last year. They blitz at the third highest rate. So I do think there will be some pressure that will throw a wrench into some of the offensive plans when it comes to Cincinnati.
But I kind of have the exact same thought there when it comes to Cincinnati against this Tampa Bay team. Now, Dexter Lawrence there in the defensive front. Obviously, you have Allen, right? This is a very good defensive front.
A little bit different than last year. I think that we can all admit that. But who's to say this Tampa Bay offensive line is going to be just amazing? Baker Mayfield at times was running for his life last year. So I don't mind that under 50.5. When it comes to a side, I do think no matter how you look at this one,
whether you want to go Chase Brown versus Bucky Irving, whether you want to look at wide receiver one versus wide receiver one, wide receiver two versus wide receiver two, you know, quarterback versus quarterback, I do think the Bengals have the upper hand here.
What I don't love is that 3.5. Now, there are some slack threes out there. There are some two and a halves out there that you can get in the minus 130s. I almost think that those half points may be worth it. Give me the Bengals minus the three here, minus the two and a half if you can snag it.
But again, keep in mind, that's 50 and a half, and this thing's dropping. It started at 51 and a half, right? I think that 50 and a half, there could be potential playing four and under. And you have a couple player buffs that I like in this one as well. Now, I talked about this on the show that I do with Tassos, H2H, right?
Jamar Chase, I don't mind his under 25 and a half for his longest reception. Now, is this a play that could get busted at any moment? Yes, it's Jamar Chase. He's filthy, right? But I did mention the pressure. I do think that he could struggle here.
In terms of teams that do blitz, and you can see right here, right, they blitzed at a 37% rate last year, pressure 34% of the time. Against teams that do apply, you know, 30-plus percent pressure, we see plenty of unders from him last year.
This is one of the best wide receivers in the entire league. But my whole thought process here is Jamar Chase may have 10 catches for 150 yards for all I care. Do the Bengals have time to develop a play downfield for him? And that's why I say I'm not all that certain.
Could it happen? Yes. Again, he's really talented. He could catch a screen pass and run for 26 yards. But for the value we're getting at minus 114, I really don't mind it here. Now, this one may have people scratching their head.
Iosovius Iosivas. Whoa. I can barely pronounce my own last name. Never mind. Him. I like his over one and a half catches, which for plus money right now, really jumps out to me, but 15 and a half, or excuse me, 14 and a half yards could also
be the case. Now, the realistic thing that kind of makes me like this is two different things, right? One, low lines, one pass could do just something like that, right? Secondarily, this is a Tampa Bay team that allowed plenty of passing yards per game out
of shotgun last year. He played most of the snaps when he is in, when the team is in shotgun, but here we go, the middle of the field and the right side of the field in terms of the field split, where he gets targeted and where he catches the ball, all checks out, and they're allowing
a 73, this is a year ago, with 73% completion percentage, two quarterbacks over the middle of the field, and that is where he had his most targets last year, two targets per game. Give me two targets here, and he catches both of them, and boom, we're cooking with gas.
All right, moving right along, we got the Lions taking on the Saints. Now, I do think a lot of people, and rightfully so to some degree, are high on the Saints this year. Tyler Schuch obviously looked good last year, only to grow on that this year.
Travis Etienne, Chris Olave, somehow, someway, still, like, underrated. People don't put him in that category of all-class, yet he really is. But that all being said, I do think they fall short here. Just because the Lions, as much as you can say, hey, the Saints are going to look good,
they're going to be better and better, how can the Lions not be better than they were just a year ago? Kind of a disappointing season for them, right? Now, they don't have David Montgomery anymore. Maybe the running game looks a little bit different now that Pacheco starts the season on the IR.
If you guys watch the future video, it's pretty high on him as an RB2 there. But Jameer Gibbs with another year under his belt. James Williams with another year under his belt. A healthy Sam Laporta. And, oh, Amon Ross St. Brown, right? With a good offensive line there as well.
And obviously a good defense. Aidan Hutchinson, good to go. Like, this is just a team that I do think is going to open a lot of eyes. When I say open a lot of eyes, I mean the people that forgot about them being one of those true, true contenders.
The Saints probably have a better year than people think, but the Lions in week number one is a tough draw. It's at seven right now. I've seen some seven and a halfs out there. Very, very important number, right? If you can snag this at seven or six and a half,
I do think that's what I look at. I think this Lions team is going to be able to win through the air and on the ground, which is obviously very, very important. In fact, the Saints, obviously a different team last year, but still some carryover.
Ranked bottom five in the league in terms of yards per play last year. If we look at this Detroit team a couple years ago when they were firing on all cylinders, that was one of their best categories. Also, the Saints, not exactly the best team in terms of getting pressure.
Well, guess what? This Lions offensive line, I already mentioned it, very good. If Jared Goff is able to sit there and decide, hey, do I want to go to Laporta? Do I want to go to Amon Ross St. Brown, Jameson Williams down the field? If he has his options, it could get ugly.
So, I do think the Lions at minus 6.5 could be a decent enough look here. In terms of the total, I want to stay under because I don't think the Saints offense is going to be all that impressive, at least in my opinion. But let the Lions do kind of do what I'm saying,
and they kind of step up and score some points. Maybe we'll look at a Saints team total under. I hate to be low on them because I do think they're one of the more underrated teams here heading into the year. But week number one, this is just a tough draw for me.
Another player prop that I would look at, or a player prop that I would look at in this one, pretty simple. I mentioned how Jared Goff, I think he's going to have space and everything of the sorts. I don't mind him to go out there and throw for two touchdowns. A year ago, just 59%.
And we did look at him, you know, at home 75% of the time. He was able to go out there and do that. When it comes to quarterbacks that at least do so, and by the way, Jared Goff passing attempts number, right, is at 33.5.
If we do have quarterbacks that threw the ball at least 30 times, you see plenty of, let's go ahead and toss this back over to passing touchdowns, 30 attempts, you see plenty of passing touchdowns from multiple guys. Okay, Brady Cook, Baker Mayfield in the back game, and Kirk Cousins didn't.
But anyone with a head, Cam Ward, hey, guess what, Matthew Stafford, Jackson Dark, even Mac Jones was able to go out there and do that. And one big thing to note here, too, is this is a Lions team that likes to throw the ball to the left side of the field.
11 attempts per game, right? New Orleans allows nearly 12 attempts per game over there, and guess what? 76.6 yards per game. Not exactly yards per attempt, but the completion percentage is allowed there as well. You may have some success.
Now, we're talking about touchdowns. It's a little bit different, but nonetheless, I still do think that Jared Goff is able to do this. We have what's undoubtedly an ugly one here. Titans taking on the Jets. Right now, Titans slight favorites.
I'm assuming it's just because they are at home. That total is way down there at 38 and a half. When it comes to these two teams, I mean, yeah, you do have a Jets squad that has some of their guys healthy that, you know, you may be overlooking at first glance.
I mean, a healthy Brees Hall is nothing to tip your nose at. A healthy Garrett Wilson is nothing to tip your nose at, right? And if you do give Geno Smith weapons around him, he's been good in the past. But I also do think that this Titans squad is much improved.
Cam Ward, Tony Pollard, Carnell Tate, Wandel Robinson. Oh, a guy named Calvin Ridley that people just forget about, maybe rightfully so, but maybe wrongfully so, right? I do think they're like, wait a second, that offense could be a little bit better than you think.
Now, do we love the offensive line? Maybe not. I mean, Skowronski or whatever is good on the Titans side of things, but that may be where you stop it, right? I think that there is potential that either one of these defenses could disrupt,
and that's why we do have a low total. But to me, as much as I think the Jets do have sort of the veteran status, Geno Smith against Cam Ward, you know, and even Garrett Wilson versus Carnell Tate in terms of wide receiver ones,
I can't help but look at the Titans having higher upside here. Cam Ward more of a playmaker than Geno Smith. Tony Pollard maybe more reliable than Breece Hall simply because of the scheme and everything like that. Carnell Tate I do think is going to be very, very good.
Wanda Robinson, Calvin Ridley, your wide receiver two and three. But don't sleep on these guys. Nick Hambor does have Offensive line barring does have some weapons around him and again a high ceiling. So I'm gonna lean towards the Titans
I'm gonna sound the cycle alert alarm here. I also don't mind the Titans team total over this Jets team I do not love defense even though they were a good defense a year ago I don think that they necessarily carry that one into this one and if this Titans team can go out there and just score 20 points their line right now is 19 Who says no to that right So go out there and get 20 points I mean to close
out the year last year, six of the last 10 games, they were able to do that, and like I mentioned, this is a Jets team that as good as they were defensively at times, let's be real, they were just talented. They still were one of the worst defenses overall. Efficiency
wise, points per game, all that jazz, right? And guess what? They were also one of the worst red zone teams in the entire league defensively last year. When this team went up against red zone teams last year, they averaged just about, was it
19 points per game in terms of going up against red zone teams that ranked in the bottom five of the league. Maybe we do see Cam Ward with his weapons actually have some productive offense. I sounded the cycle alarm. I get it. I'm a little bit crazy in this one.
All right, guys. Last chance to join our NFL Survivor Contest if there are any spots left. Check it out. That link will be down below in the description as well as the pinned comment. It is a $15 entry. You can enter up to three times if you want, but the winner is taking home over $4,000.
Guys, all you have to do, all you have to do, it sounds simple, right? Pick one winner each and every week, and you survive. The only catch is you can't pick the same team twice. So once you use a team, they are off the board for you. But the goal is to survive and outlast your opponents, right?
$15 potentially turned into $4,000. Check it out. That link will be down below in the description as well as the pinned comment. The Smack Talk board is already going crazy over there on Slash. So check it out, guys. Join the Guy Boston Sports official NFL Survivor Contest for 2026.
15 to 4 grand. Imagine that. Colts taking on the Ravens here. Colts getting 3.5 points at home. First off, can we address how many 3.5 lines there are? Like, there's no worse number in football here than 3.5.
And there are a ton of 3.5 lines out there in week number one. Guys, comment 3.5 has made it this far into the video, but it just is such a headache. But nonetheless, we deal with it as it comes, right?
Colts taking on the Ravens here. I do think that this is potentially a sneaky spot for the Colts, but I'm not fully sold. What we saw a year ago was a Colts team that was obviously very, very good, right?
But I do, until they got injured, Daniel Jones and stuff like that. But I do still think that they kind of played above their normal level, in a sense. have they definitely succeeded expectations or exceeded expectations?
I don't know. I don't think I want to sit here and say, hey, taking on a Ravens team that is very, very well built, I mean, Lamar Henry, Zane Flowers is probably the most favorite spot for a guy to take a massive step up this year.
Not that jaw-dropping of a take. He's already a star, but I think he's going to be a superstar by year's end. I just think it's a really tough draw for them. Kind of like what we talked about with the Saints taking on the Lions. It's like, sure, I don't hate the idea of the Saints being better this year and wowing some people,
But as a week one matchup, I think that this Ravens team comes in here and honestly smashes. Would I be glad to be wrong? Sure, I'm not the biggest Ravens fan out there. If you can snag this at a flat three or minus two and a half,
I think that that is a green light to go and look at the Ravens. Where I would probably go here is maybe taking a peek at Zay Flowers. I'm a little biased. I guess I'm really high on him this year. But I do think that him from a reception standpoint at four and a half
Seems like it could be a first half line. Now, I kid when I say that, but really, I don't necessarily hate the idea of him doing really, really well here. He's going to be targeted plenty on the right side. That's where 42% of his targeted routes came last year.
The Colts allowed 107.7 receiving yards per game to the right side last year. That is a crazy, crazy amount. 62% completion percentage as well.
16.4 targets per game. Zay Flowers, obviously a guy that can be a downfield threat and stuff like that. He can be a slot guy. It's not just the right side of the field. He can do a lot more. But the fact that most of his targets came in a place where you saw the Colts definitely struggle
really does hit me as a, hey, this could be something to look at, right? And by the way, if you don't believe me, which I don't know why you wouldn't, I'm trustworthy, it is right here. Boom. 42%. 107. 16.4.
Those numbers I just referenced, they are right there smack dab in your face. Now, when it comes to a total in this game, that's where things get a little interesting. It is not, I think that's an incorrect graphic that we have here, of course, because it's, what, five minutes to have an incorrect graphic?
It's 47.5. I would say Ravens' team total over, if anything, because I'm not, again, sold on what this Colts team is doing, but I kind of just started ranting about this Baltimore team being able to come in there and kind of throw their first punch.
If you can look at a Ravens' team total over, that may be how I play the total. But I do like Ravens and Jay Flower probably, you know, They're probably higher up on the totem pole than that total looks. Now, this isn't a 3.5 line, but 4.5 just as weird.
I mean, it's not as annoying, but it is still such a weird one, right? Steelers taking on the Falcons here. Now, Aaron Rodgers, to a tongue of Iloa. Nailed that pronunciation. Looks like he's going to be getting started. They need him to start it right.
This does seem like a little bit more of a, I don't know, a high-powered offense on the Falcon side of things with B. John Drake, London, Kyle Pitts. I don't necessarily hate him this year, right? But at the same time, whenever you have a quarterback competition heading into the year
and you're not sure who's going to start, that's never, like, a great sign, right? Sure, competition's great, but any fan or team or anyone will probably tell you, yeah, I'd like to just know who my guy is, right? Now, the good thing here is, like, maybe that's something,
and maybe Aaron Rodgers is fully washed. Who knows? But Michael Pittman being added to this team, DK Metcalf now another year under his belt as a stealer. I'm not sure what they're doing too, too much in the running back room,
I've seen plenty of different reports saying different things about Cher. It's Jalen Warren, and obviously Rico Dowdle, who's shown that he can be good. I think that there is a flyer's chance that the Falcons can win this game outright. But if you are looking at it from a spread perspective,
I think the Steelers at home, much as we talked about with the Ravens, they just kind of throw their first punch. And I'll put it this way, and this may just be kind of off the data and stuff like that, just kind of more of a mindset thing, which I'm pretty dumb, so sometimes that can be a bad thing to go down.
But in a game in which you're kind of figuring things out and maybe there's a struggle zone vibe to it, right? I like the more Smash Mouth team than the non-Smash Mouth team. This is a really sort of high-end team in terms of talent
when it comes to Bijan or Drake London. Like I said, I keep mentioning Pitts, but I do think he has a good year, right? But everything has to fall into line, whereas the Steelers just historically, even with the guys they have here, can kind of grind out a win a little bit better.
So I do lean Steelers. That 4.5 seems irrelevant to me, So I'd almost say, screw it, look at like minus 5.5 for an alternate line, get some nice plus money behind it. And when it comes to a total, again, if the Steelers win this game, I think they keep this one low scoring.
If the Falcons win, I think it turns a little bit more shootout-esque. So your take on the total probably changes based on the direction you think the game is going. If I like the Steelers, I think I'm going to lean towards that under 42.5 as well.
Now I may be relying on this metric or this scheme type of idea a little bit too much, But DK Metcalf ran a lot of his routes on the left side of the field last year. That is where we saw his Atlanta defense certainly struggle.
7.2 yards per attempt, 89.4 yards per game allowed over there, 63% completion percentage, and almost 13 attempts per game allowed there as well. By the way, guys, this is BucketsToBucks.com if you do want to check it out.
BucketsToBucks.com, our own research tool that we have built here at Guy Boss in Sports. Less than 50 cents per day. This is just one screen. It is a player-approved screen. You have a ton of advanced data. clickable box scores where you get everything that you need as well.
Very, very, very clean. It can be very simple, but you can also get as nitty-gritty, nitty-gritty as you want. Look at all these filters that we have, right? Hey, you want to look out, he does against a team that runs a lot of men, all of a sudden you can start to filter. What about not too, too much zone, right?
You can start to filter that down. Zone success rates. I mean, there's so much you could do here. Buckets to Bucks.com. But I do think DK and Matt Gaff, anytime touchdown, 50-plus receiving yards. Whether it's his receptions at 3.5, I do think that this could be a spot in which Michael Pittman being added to the squad is only a help for him
and maybe frees him up a little bit more on that left side. Before we keep the train moving here, I do want to talk to you guys about Chalkboard. They're absolutely hooking up the users this season. Yes, you get a free pick for Sunday Night Football here.
Jackson Dart, .5 passing yards. One passing yard passes this square for your entry. You also get your first deposit fully matched, which is just free money, right? but then are going out of their way to give boosts, promos, discounted lines, free squares
each and every day to existing users. And isn't that kind of what it's all about? I think we've all seen these DFS apps long enough being like, oh, free square, nice. I sign up and then what? Chuckport says, here's the answer to then what?
Every single day they are getting their boosts, discounts, multiple. I've seen during the baseball season, eight, nine, ten boosts at a time, ten discounted lines at a time. It is really damn cool, guys. take my word for it or just go try it for yourself link down below in the description as well as the
pinned comment make sure to use code guy boston when signing up today you won't regret it guys chalkboard again link down below in the description as well as the pinned comment my panthers taking on the bears bryce young caleb williams i did to be completely honest did kind
of go back and forth on this one and the one thing that swayed me to the bear side of things and it's not, oh, I think Caleb Williams is going to be that much better or Dunzey takes another step up or anything like that, which could all be very, very true, right?
I do believe in Ben Johnson in another year under him, with Caleb Williams under him, him coaching his Bears squad. We saw how much time can matter last year, his Bears squad, albeit kind of not fluky but lucky in the sense of the playoffs, right?
And it ended just as unlucky. But they were a legit squad. Caleb Williams, definitely a legit quarterback. DeAndre Swift, Roma Dunes, a Luther Bird, and Colston Loveland is an awesome core to put around him.
I think the offensive line can be decent enough as well, but this does seem, and it smells, like a trappy line, right? You're looking at this Panther squad being like, the Panthers? Bryce Young, I mean, oh, maybe he showed a little bit of something last year, but Chuba Hubbard,
Tech McMillan, only a second-year player, Jalen Coker, Xavier Leguette, Like, it's not as flashy. It doesn't have the core that this Bears squad has. Coaching, I do think, is still, you know, the Bears side of things.
But I almost want to sit here and, like, I just don't want to overthink it, right? I don't want to overthink this one. You're getting a number that we just complained about, the three and a half. You're getting a number that makes sense. You can go minus three, minus two and a half, if you really so desire, and just snag the Bears.
That is where I went. But, like I said, I did kind of bounce back and forth in ping pong on this game simply because of that. I think there's a part of me that I feel like I am missing something here. Maybe it's on the defensive side for the Panthers or something like that,
but I don't see them getting to Caleb Williams. He's obviously a guy that can make some plays, and if they can't get to him, by the way, they were the 30th-ranked team in terms of sacks per game last year, 30th-ranked team in terms of third-down conversion,
whereas the Bears were the number one team offensively against sacks and the number five team in terms of third-down. Two very important games here, two very important parts of the game here. yeah I just don't think that I could sit here and lean in the direction of the Panthers give me the
Bears minus the two and a half I don mind the Bears team total over mainly because of what I just mentioned Ben Johnson third downs and sacks I think that if we have time here Caleb Williams may be able to do whatever he wants
I'm also slightly high on DeAndre Swift this year, which is kind of interesting, not for many other reasons other than I do like him in Ben Johnson's offense. We liked him last year, decent enough where he would catch the future with his touchdowns.
Now just another year with his old coach that he had in Detroit, just seems like kind of a match made in heaven, as corny as that may be. Jaguars taking on the Brownies here. Jaguars obviously kind of turned some heads towards the end of the season last year,
I'd say to say the least. And this Browns squad, I mean, yeah, they do lose, obviously, Miles Garrett, Deshaun Watson at the helm here. I do think Casey Concepcion can be pretty good.
Either one, right? I see we're three now, maybe. Quinn Sean Judkins probably in a decent enough spot to take a leap up, but to me, I just don't necessarily, Harold Fanon too, right? I think there's a lot of individuals here that we may be impressed with on any given Sunday.
You know, unintentionally, I guess. But I don't necessarily think that they are the consistent power that it is over on the Jacksonville side of things. Lawrence, Tootin, Thomas, Washington, Myers, even being able to have Chris Rodriguez Jr. as the backup running back,
one of my hot takes before the year was that he may actually win 50% of the share, maybe even the kind of Lions workload there. Same thing with their defense. Like, to me, I look at this and I say, this is a spot in which the Jaguars rule.
I know every year it seems the Browns have these shiny pieces, and you think, hey, they might do some damages here. They could be better, but they do the damn Browns things. And I know there's been a couple games here where today I talk about them like, I don't
want to overthink it and all that. This one, I really did avoid it. and it hasn't crossed my mind that I like the Browns, which tells you that maybe I am missing something, but this Jaguars team should be head and shoulders, and the only reason I do think it will look at 8.5 points in terms of the line
is because it's week number one. If this was midseason or something like that with both teams in midseason form, which is a good thing for the Jags, I would say a bad thing for the Browns. I think this is like a 14.5 type of spread, you know what I mean? Now, maybe I'm speaking hyperbolically, but still, that is kind of where my mind is at.
Give me the Jaguars in this spot. Now, the Browns' defense is always historically good and stuff, but I'm curious to see what they do with no Miles Garrett. Now, you might be thinking, okay, there's plenty of guys, right? Ward can still do that, Schlesinger.
Like, they still have a really good defense, but there is part of me that I'm like, Miles Garrett is a defensive wrecking ball himself, right? He really is. How different will this look without their anchor, him being their anchor?
So we'll see. I like Schlesinger, whatever his name is, right? Carson, Carson might just say his first name. I do really like him. I think that he's a very, very good player. Jared Burst, I was huge on. That's who they get from Alex Garrett. The defense will probably still be good.
But let's see how good. I'm going to lean towards the Jags team total over. If that one blows up in my face, in fact, I don't even know if I have to call it a slow within myself. But in terms of a lean if it blows up in my face, we shall see. I just think that no Garrett is like such a void that it doesn't matter if you have
10 Jared Bursts. You may not be able to feel that. As crazy as that is to say out loud, I mean it. I do need it. Hey, guys, you can find two seconds of your time. I wanted to remind you to hit that like button if you are enjoying the video.
Hit the subscribe button if you are brand new. Tons of NFL content. We have like 25-plus videos coming out weekly during the season here, including all the other sports on the channel. So hit that subscribe button if you are new. And I want to say, and I've been saying this in the MLB videos and stuff like that,
but, guys, it's not lost on me how lucky I am, how lucky we are here on the channel. One ounce of this I don't take for granted. I really do appreciate it. And I just want to let you guys know that that is something that I think about constantly, the appreciation. I always say it takes two to tangle, right?
You're my dancing partner, and we're tangling. I'm not just talking to a camera with lights and a microphone, all that, right? No, I'm talking to humans on the other side of things. So as sappy as this is, week number one, maybe have me in my field or something like that.
But I did just want to say thank you. I appreciate you. And this is not lost on me. I do not take it for granted. That is not me just saying words that sound good. I'm telling you how I feel. So before I start tearing up, let's get back to the damn NFL games.
All right, next up, we have certainly one of my most looked forward to. Does that make sense? One of the games I'm looking forward to most, Texans taking on the Bills. This Texan defense is obviously phenomenal. I think we all know that and saw that a year ago.
The offense was what you really had to worry about, right? I think the offense is going to be better this year. A healthy Nico Collins, CJ Stroud. I mean, the offensive line still has some concerns, but CJ Stroud, hopefully, when they bounce back here, Now, Tank Bell is still on IR, right?
So obviously that's something to note. They do get Keishon Booty, which I think is a good add to their wide receiver core here. We'll see if he makes much of a difference. But obviously a guy that is decent enough. Dalton Schultz back.
I just think there are some... David Montgomery and Woody Marks, by the way. I think Woody Marks is super underrated. Montgomery obviously still has a lot of gas in the tank. I just think this offense will be better. But this Bill's defense may be better, too.
And this Bills team, with DJ Moore being added, Josh Allen and James Cook still there, still may be better as well. You know what I mean? I'm going to lean towards the Bills in this one. I do think that there's a strong chance the Texans win the game, though.
I'm not going to lie. So if you're on the Texans, do not take this as talking me off of it. No, I really would not want it to come across that way. I think that the Bills are the slightly better team.
When I say slightly, I mean that for all that it's worth. Kalu Shakir, Coleman, and DJ Moore is just a slight bit stronger than Nico, Keishon Booty, and then Hutchinson and Schultz.
Josh Allen wins the C.J. Shroud battle, right? And James Cook, I'm certainly taking over the David Montgomery, Woody, Mark sort of split. Now, the defense is where things do get a little interesting, right?
The Texans and C.J. Gardner-Johnson now, Bradley Chubb, I mean, I'm not going to go through their entire defense. They have a ridiculous defense, right? In terms of Phil's defense, but in terms of the Texans' defense,
Will Anderson, right? 20202. I'll show you. You can go through pretty much every position. Yeah, they got a top guy there, right? Excuse me. I said the Texans for the Buffalo defense.
But overall, I think that the defense shines here. Both offenses probably have a decent look. I think they figure some things out. I'm actually getting a little crazy here. cycle a little. I'm just going to get too nitty-gritty for week one, but I like it. First half
under, second half over is what I like here. I think that that first half can be so low scoring. I still do lean towards the under 44 and a half though, but give me the Bills in this spot on the money line. Full game under, and again,
second half over. I think that we see Josh Allen, CJ Trout, the offenses here start to at least find some soft spots and stuff like that, but I think defense dominates the first part of this game. Raiders taking on the
Dolphins here. We're not going to see Mendoza. It's going to be Kirk Cousins. We do get another year of Ashton Jentky here. This is a very weird... By the way, Brock Bauer is going to probably miss one to two weeks. He still looks at us doubtful, but
we already saw that he had the meniscus trim. Doesn't sound too great. I imagine he's not playing as much as reports have even said, right? Now, minus three is seemingly an interesting number here, because I almost want to take
this in the opposite direction and get real crazy. Now, we're not going to sound the psycho alert alarm. Yeah, we are. plus three and a half on the Dolphins side of things would be what I look at here. I think this should be a straight-up pick-em. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that the Raiders are that much better
or they deserve to be, you know, huge favorites in this thing because I don't believe that. As much as the Dolphins aren't very good, and it doesn't even seem like the Dolphins are, like, trying to be good, as sad as that is,
I don't think the Raiders should be, like, minus 170 in some cases, right? So, yeah, Dolphins, if you can get that hook number at plus 3.5, it might be what I look at here. Malik Willis, okay, nothing special, but he's shown some life.
Devon Achan is still, for all intents and purposes, better than Ashton Jentke. Jalen Naylor, Trey Tucker, going up against, you know, Malik Watson, Caleb Douglas. Yes, you probably do give the nod to the Raiders,
but still, and with no Brock Bowers too, right? Like, the receiving core is still somewhat of a wash, So this is very much like when we talk about the MLB games and things are somewhat of a 50-50. Maybe the plus-money team.
I also don't mind the under. I really don't see, and I'm not trying to back either one of these defenses like all that much, but I don't see where the flow of offense comes from from either side. It could be Ashton Gentry just absolutely dominates,
and here's who he thought he was going to be, because obviously he had some flashes last year. Maybe Devon Aitken's back, and he's like, God, did you forget how good I was? Like, the fact that Aitken's falling in fantasy drafts and stuff like that based on his skill level, is crazy.
It's based on his team, obviously. But if one of those guys goes off the shore, maybe there is a fast pass, no pun intended, to the over. But 40.5 like this to me is like a 17, 13, 20 to 17 most, right,
type of a ball game. Is it my favorite spot on the board? No. Like, obviously me backing the Dolphins would not be my favorite spot on the board. Keep an eye on the final place to see if we can get crazy enough to roll with it ourselves. I highly doubt it, but it is what I would look at.
I need to see it before I believe it with the Raiders. And the fact that they're going Kirk Cousins, who we saw last year, not exactly have the most gas left in the tank, kind of telling. All right, we've got the Vikings taking on the Packers.
I'm going to start off with a player prop here. Tucker Kraft, anytime touchdown. I think that there's some value at that plus 225. I mean, when you look at it from a perspective of where they're going to go in the red zone, I just don't see where else you're going.
I mean, you don't have Dobbs anymore, right? I actually lost him. But, like, Tucker Craft in, by the way, 1, 2, 3, 4, 8 games last year, led the team by far in red zone targets. Why would that change here in this one, right?
Am I thinking, right, just get a touchdown. Send it his way, right? This guy had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 touchdowns in 8 games. Come on, man. Plus 220, even first touchdown score, plus 1,300. That is what I start with in this one.
I am big on Tucker Craft getting touchdowns. If you watch the Futures video, we have him for plus money to get six plus touchdowns. So, obviously, I like him in this week already. In terms of a side here, I do think Minnesota is going to be better than people think.
Now, do I agree with the Kyler Murray start over McCarthy? Honestly, 100%. We are just, like, what, two years, maybe even less, removed from Kyler Murray being like this, oh, my God, one of the best young guys, one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Now we have Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, a guy that I think could be good in this game, in Jawan Jennings as well, which his lines are just super low. I don't have any player prep prepared in this gap, but I think that with the attention from JJ and Jordan Addison,
I think that Jawan Jennings could be very, very good, a good add here. But I think that he could, Kyler Murray could have a good game with those guys. Now, Kyler Murray's passing yard line, what is it at right now? 220.5, did I see?
219.5 right now for minus 122. I don't mind that. I mean, this is a Packer team that as good as they are defensively, I think that they're going to allow plenty in the middle, and I think that he could do pretty damn well when
it comes to the middle of the field, especially with someone like Joran Jennings or something like that. Does this mean that I'm on the Viking side of things? To some degree I pretty split That why I almost avoiding the question I asking myself I pretty split I mean I guess I could say yes Vikings I want a better number right now getting them just slightly outside of the pick right
at like the minus 130 range. A little expensive for me, but at the same time, Green Bay, I'd want like plus 115, and that's not out there. I think Tucker Craft has a good game. I don't really love the Packers this year. I don't think they did much to get better.
More so than anything, I kind of like the over in this game. I just don't necessarily see the Vikings defense being all that much of a threat as good as they were a year ago. I think that we could see Tucker Kraft have a touchdown, Jordan Love look good. And if I do think Kyle Omari plays well,
I mean, he do still have an offense that I like on the Minnesota side of things. Through the air, though, I'm not going to tell you that Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones are going to be superstars, right? That's why I like Kyle Omari through the air. I don't actually mind his completions at 19 and a half.
I think that's something that I could kind of maybe get behind as well. Even looking at last year, he barely played last year, but he did hit it in four of five games last 10, so dating back to 2024, I mean, 24 completions per game.
Keep in mind, obviously, with a different team. All right, we've got the Eggles taking on the Commanders. Now, obviously, a healthy season, hopefully, I guess you could say, especially Commander Sam saying that, ahead for Jaden Daniels,
Bill Kotsky-Merritt, Terry McLaurin, now they have Stephon Diggs. I do think that there were some adds to this team offensively that I like. On the other side of things, you do have Makai Lemon as a new add here, Dontavian Wicks.
coming to the team. I mean, you don't have any more A.J. Brown, but Tank one had a rough year last year. I think that he bounces back. Tank thinks he's being in the backfield with him. It is a... Oh, there's a Brown there, too, I believe. It is a weird one simply because of the line.
If you're telling me that the Eagles win this game, I'd probably say, yeah, I'm with you, right? But I do think I have a little bit of hesitation looking at them winning by two field goals, six points. That's down without the extra point, right? Like, I think that this commander team's going to be
much better than we thought, or that we think they're going to be. Like, last year they had a down year, but are we just forgetting how good Jaden Daniels was two years ago, like, making the playoffs?
Like, it really is kind of mind-blowing how soon people forget. And I get it. This industry is what he's done for me lately and all that. It makes sense. I don't think I can walk in the Eagles at five and a half here. That's too many points.
I'm going to lean towards the Commanders, even though I think the Eagles are the better team, like they have any better defense, but I do think that, you know, the offenses may be somewhat comparable, and that may be crazy to say, and maybe I look like an idiot come
week, too, but for week number one, these two teams battling it out here like they tend to do, it wouldn't shock me if the Commanders keep this one close, right? I mean, even just looking at their most recent games, you had the Eagles win, how was it, 24-7, then you
had Commanders win 20, or no, excuse me, the Commanders won last time, the play 24-17, not 24-7, 29-18, 55-23, then the Commanders win, then the Eagles win, then the Eagles win, the Commanders win, like, they obviously battled it out. Yeah, I'm going to lean in
that direction. Obviously, I'm not, like, fully sold on it, but I just think the 5.5 is too much, sue me. In terms of where we go total-wise, now, this is a spot in which I think we could have, like, a 24-20 game. Because of Jaden Daniels, I do think that
is a high ceiling, he could be back, I think Diggs could be doing his team. I'm going to lean towards the over, because I don't think the Commanders win this one if it is a defensive grinded out type of a game. I think if you like the Commanders, much like when we talked about the Steelers game, I think if you like the Commanders, you probably do like points.
Even though there's a lot of flashing names on that Eagle side of things, I think the defense is a little bit more sound, and if you like them, they may take their thumb and say, hey, hey little buddy, and kind of smush them, but to me, I think the Commanders can put up some points, and by doing so, I think the Eagles probably move the ball as well.
You get over 44.5. I think that this is a floor of a 24-20 game. If it ends on that number, that'll stink. But at least we would have looked good, like in the Commanders, at plus 5.5. Now, wouldn't we?
Chargers taking on the Cardinals. Chargers are probably the most chalky survivor pick this week, right? Maybe I'm going chalk, maybe not. I get it, right? This Cardinals team is probably bound to stink.
I think their win total is super low as well. the issue with that and the problem I have with even that take is you look at their roster and it's kind of like what the Jets did for years okay they had some flashy names that nitty-gritty isn't great okay but Jacoby Bursette I believe in I do think he's good and we how many times
we take his over in completions and over an attempt last year it was crazy right but Jeremiah Love it seems that people are saying he's a foolproof stud right we'll see Marvin Harrison Michael Wilson Kendrick Bourne Trey Nick Bribert these are names man and they're names that are
only getting better. I think that they could have a better season than people think. The week one against the Chargers squad, I just don't see it.
But 9.5 is too much. I know the Chargers probably win this one, but 9.5, what, about 10 points against a team that I do think if they're firing on all cylinders, they do have some offensive, you know, potential.
You need it, Cardinals. I'll tell you right now, I don't think this thing makes its way into our final play, okay? but I will tell you more so than that the Chargers minus nine and a half don't there's no question in my mind that the Chargers probably win this game
but I see it as like a 27 to 21 27 to 20 31 to 24 type of a game where it's like yeah I was never out of it was never you know out of like they were always going to win the game
from the first kickoff to the last snap but it wasn't a blowout I feel like I'm the only one that's thinking that because again everybody I think a ton of people are going to go Chargers for the survival, which makes sense. That does not spread the latest and stuff like that.
But overall, I sit here and I'm like, week one, it just seems a little bit too high. Is that based on data? Is it based on analytics? No, I just said it seems a bit too high. I think the Cardinals at least have a full ration of offensive potential here.
I think people forget that Marvin Harrison innately is very good. Jacoby Brissett is more than serviceable. I think that's a huge thing that people sit there and are like, ah, Jacoby Brissett. No, Jacoby Brissett I do think can constantly play good football,
but I don't know if he can go better than good, right? In terms of player props, I don't mind his past attempts yet again. I don't mind his completions if it is 20-plus or over 19.5. In terms of the total here, I'm going to lean towards the over.
I think this is much like what we've done for a lot of the games, and this may not be the case when you come week two, week three, week four, and we have some more data under our belt. But, like, to me, if I'm thinking game script, that the Cardinals at least have a higher potential than people think,
of their offense, not necessarily their defense, and that looks like an over to me, right? Like, I wouldn't be surprised if we could see a 27-24 game, and people are like, whoa, 24 points against this defense? I forgot to mention the Chargers defense is very good,
but you do have just somewhat of a serviceable offense on the Cardinals side of things? I don't know. Probably, a lot of people probably sitting here being like, you're an absolute idiot, but that's my story, and I'm sticking to it. Yeah, here we go.
Giants taking on the Cowboys. I'll get right out of this thing. I do think the Cowboys are what I look at in this one. Now, last year we didn't even cover Sunday Night Football, right? Because Katsos does the video with Sunday Night Football, the full game breakdown, and gets nitty-gritty in it.
I've heard enough of the comments, right? I saw the comments, and you know what? I'm a man of the people, all right? We're going to be covering the Sunday Night Football game briefly in these videos here at the end, because it is technically still part of the Sunday slate, right? And I did miss having some action on Sunday Night Football.
But in this one, I do think the Giants are being slept on a little bit. I think a lot of people, and maybe rightfully so, right? I'm not trying to talk you out of a Giants look if you do like the Giants, but a lot of people are over, the expectations are very high.
There's a lot of steam coming in behind this Giants team. And I think there's just a lot of question marks. Jackson Dark, I think he's good. Is he the guy? Pam Scadaboo, is he what we saw last year? Malik Nabors coming back, right? You have Fields, Mooney as the wide receiver, two and three.
He likely is there. I get it. There are some good things. and I do think the defense is good, too. I just don't know if it is as good as Prescott, Devontae Williams, C.D. Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, the best kicker in football, Bryce Fitz Aubrey,
Florida Way has their three receiver. I just think it's pretty good, and I do think that the Cowboys defense, especially matched up against a team like this Giants squad, can be okay as well. I'm going to lean towards the Cowboys here at that minus three.
If this thing was like four and a half, five, then sure, I start to see where you're getting the Giants. You have two teams that obviously play each other tough, opening night weird things can happen Giants are at home I get all of that okay again I just think that Dak Prescott can outplay Jackson Dart Javante Williams can outplay Scam Scataboo
C.D. Pickens can outplay Malik Neighbors in Malachi Field Ferguson likely probably likely if we want to go to the kickers I'm not trying to make that point but Brandon Aubrey uh takes the cake there against any kicker defense wise and coaching wise now I do still think that
the Giants honestly have a little bit of an upper hand there potentially but to me the Cowboys a little bit more offensive. Now, you might be thinking, okay, you like the Cowboys, do you like the over? No, if you were to tell me that this is a definite over
game, then yeah, I like the Cowboys more, because I think shootout-wise, the Cowboys have more firepower. But, and it's a big ol' butt-walking around, right? All guys are turning their heads. I think the mantra in that Giants locker room on the sideline is going to be, let's keep this one tight. We have a better chance of winning this game if it is a grinded-out
type game, we're dominating the time of the possession, and that type of thing. And I'm not just saying because a closer, you know, lower scoring game, that three matters more in terms of percentage of the total score. I'm not saying that. I'm saying that literally from a game script perspective, if they're just going spread and flying and throwing
the ball all over the place, I think the Cowboys have a massive edge. So the Giants at home, I think they have the ability to say, hey, we can try to dictate this as much as we can in terms of how the game is going to go. And I think that yields an under, okay? Especially
in prime time and stuff like that. So I like the under. I like the idea of the Cowboys. But this is very much like if I was at a bar and I overhear you talking to a buddy, oh, I love the Giants tonight. I'm sipping my drink, getting drunk. I'm not worried. I'm not going to be like, oh, I like the Cowboys.
I can see the angle to the Giants. Do not worry if you are on the Giants side. You're like, oh, Ev says this. Guys, I'm a dummy. You can always fade me like I always say, right? Just give me the Cowboys here. We'll see if it's a final play. Keep an eye down on the pincom.
And I will say, we didn't cover any player props in this game. If you guys are interested in that, follow me over on Instagram at EvPix. E-V-P-I-C-K-Z spelling bee champ. We might post some DFS content or a same game poll later
or something like that for this game over there because Tossles will be doing the full breakdown for this one, but I still want some Sunday night juice, right? Some action on this one. So go ahead and follow me over on Instagram at EvPix. Also on
Twitter, which is EvGuyBoston E-V-GuyBoston. So go ahead and follow me there. But guys, that is going to wrap for today's show. I hope you guys did enjoy. If you did, hit that like button, like I said. Subscribe and let me know your favorite place.
And honestly, let's see. If anyone made it this far in the video, just saying I disagree with your pick here. Let's see if you guys disagree with anything that I said. It's a long video. We go through every game. I'm sure there's a lot of disagreement. Let's see if you can counter any of the points.
Not too much to go on being a lot of 2025 data that we're looking at and projections for 2026. But obviously, I'm here for the criticism or the counterpoint. Absolutely love that, guys. Drop them down in the comments. Excited for this NFL season.
I'm rambling at this point. We'll catch you guys in the next one, all right? Peace out. Thank you.