---
title: 'oh **** warsh is MAAAAADDDD'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=aV0yYYGZ5LE'
video_id: 'aV0yYYGZ5LE'
date: 2026-10-28
duration_sec: 1108
channel: 'Meet Kevin'
---

# oh **** warsh is MAAAAADDDD

> Source: [oh **** warsh is MAAAAADDDD](https://youtube.com/watch?v=aV0yYYGZ5LE)

## Summary

The video analyzes the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, focusing on the possibility of hawkish commentary from Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair. It reviews recent economic data, including a 'true inflation' CPI read, housing market declines, and market expectations for a rate hold. The host outlines two potential scenarios—bearish if Warsh signals no deal on Iran or continued hawkishness, and bullish if he hints at a deal or disinflation.

### Key Points

- **True Inflation Data Disappoints** [00:03] — The host expresses dissatisfaction with the latest 'true inflation' CPI read, noting oil prices hit $117 per barrel, and the data contradicts previous claims of inflation falling below 1%.
- **Economic Indicators Show Weakness** [01:56] — MUFG flags 'amber lights' for Kevin Warsh. Housing starts are down 5.2%, pending home sales down 7.3%, and mortgage applications have dropped for the longest run since November 2022. The NASDAQ is 6% off its record.
- **Market Expects a Hold** [03:34] — Goldman Sachs and other major banks expect the Fed to hold rates tomorrow, with a 93.4% probability per the bond market. A hike would be a 'rug pull.' The commentary is the main risk.
- **Inflation Expectations Rising** [04:31] — The 5-year inflation breakeven is back to levels seen before the September 16th hike, indicating elevated inflation expectations. This is a concern for the Fed.
- **Banks Predict Future Hikes** [05:12] — Morgan Stanley expects a hold on Wednesday but a hike in December and March. Other banks like Goldman, MUFG, and UBS also expect a hold tomorrow, with mixed views on subsequent hikes.
- **Quantitative Tightening Task Force** [05:38] — NORA research suggests Warsh may emphasize the need for quantitative tightening, which would be hawkish. The Fed's QT task force is expected to release a report by year-end.
- **Bearish vs. Bullish Scenarios** [07:28] — Bearish commentary would imply the war (Iran) is not ending or that Trump hasn't gotten a phone call. Bullish signals would include hints of a deal or disinflation.
- **SK Hynix Earnings Bullish** [08:09] — SK Hynix's earnings were strong, with 50% of manufacturing capacity for 2027-2028 under long-term agreements, and expectations that memory supply shortage will persist through 2030.
- **Historical Pattern of Post-Meeting Rally** [10:26] — After the September 16th hike, the market dropped initially but then rallied to all-time highs once the 'worst catalyst' passed. The host expects a similar pattern.
- **Key Phrases to Watch** [11:49] — Bearish phrases include 'underlying trends have not improved,' 'core CPI worse than expected,' and '50% of categories rising over 3%.' Bullish phrases include 'AI disinflation,' 'oil prices to come down,' and 'stable labor market.'
- **Inflation Expectations Trend Higher** [16:08] — Long-run inflation expectations are above the 2024 range, similar to the 1970s pattern of higher lows, which is concerning and may force Warsh to act hawkishly.

### Conclusion

The Fed meeting is a pivotal event with high uncertainty. The market expects a hold, but the commentary will determine the direction. A hawkish tone could trigger a sell-off, while hints of a deal or disinflation could spark a rally. Investors should watch for specific phrases from Warsh to gauge the market's next move.

## Transcript

at all. Take a look at this. You're not going to like this, but we'll show it to Nobody's going to leave you hanging today. This is not good. Some might say this IS SLEEPY JOE BAD. WE HAVEN'T SEEN NUMBERS quite like this since I like to
NUMBERS quite like this since I like to call him sleepy Joe. Well, boys and girls, um I don't like the direction of true inflation. Uh, honestly, I mean, we we know oil prices have hit $117 per barrel. They've
fortunately come down a little bit here, but uh I have to say this true flation CPI read sucks. Uh, you know, obviously they lock up all these others uh behind fine. The true flation one is the one
that historically people have shown all the time when they show screenshots on or whatever. Everybody's talking about how true's going down, right? I mean, it everybody's like, "Look, it's going straight down." And then we were even
seeing these posts about how true inflation was in like the 1% or even under 1% range. Those were all real numbers per true flation. They were here. But dude, what the f like look at where we are now, man. These posts
aren't getting that many likes anymore by true flation. I hate to say it, people ain't very happy about that. And there's only one man, one opportunity. Look, there's only one person who could deal with this. Well,
and Iran, which we're not going to keep talking about that, we'll see. We still have a little bit of time, right? Anyway, it's Kevin Walsh. It like it's basically Kevin Walsh is the backs stop for Donnie T. And this is
not good. So, we're going to go through a plan in this for what I think is going on tomorrow. But before I start with me, because you kind of hear from me all the freaking time, I appreciate you coming to listen, but let's also give you some
other perspective. So, a few things to note. Uh, MUFG indicated that there are quote amber lights for Kevin Worsh. I immediately saw pictures of Amber Heard in my head, but okay. Housing starts are down 5.2%. Pending home sales down 7.3%.
applications. the longest run of mortgage application drops since mortgage application drops since November of 2022. The NASDAQ is 6% off of its record. Okay, let's put a little reality on
Okay, let's put a little reality on that. MU motherfers. It's actually MUFG, but I don't know why. Like I think it stands for FU. Um, none of that matters. Like first of all there's a difference between
there's a difference between construction starting pending home sales and sales volume and sales prices. Okay, prices in desirable low build areas are still going up in spite of these ridiculous rates. Build more prices come
down. Simple. Okay. Econ 10 probably too. They don't teach it at all and too. They don't teach it at all and nobody makes it to Econ 102. Anyway, NASDAQ being 6% off its highs, bro. That's not really off its highs. That's
like a fluctuation. That's like a little a little bounce over the 700 number, you know? It's like it's really like our heartbeat. Like, here's 700. We're dead. know? We went into cardiac arrest with
Leopold, went down to 655, and then it was thanks Kenny of Citadel. So, I don't I don't think that any of those Kevin Dors really cares about as
hear Tuesday's update. Goldman economists expect to hold uh expect a else. Everybody in their mom expects a hold tomorrow for the Federal Reserve.
Uh we are looking at a 93.4% chance per the bond market of a hold tomorrow. So tomorrow. It would be a rug pull to get a hike tomorrow. The commentary is going to be the problem. He without an Iran deal, we have the greatest chance of
getting hawkish commentary from Kevin Worsh. That's bad. Unless Kevin Worsh got a phone call from Donnie T that it's all okay. Just give me a few more days. Is this thing looking good? Okay. Goldman economists expect a hold. Uh
they think uh ultimately though the Fed will deliver fewer rate hikes than know about that. Not with this true inflation read. And it's it's also not the true inflation read. I mean, we talked about this yesterday already, but
it's in addition to the true inflation read. We have the 5-year inflation break even, which is actually uh arising. It's back at the same level that we saw before the September 16th hike. So, we spiked up, came down, and spiked right
sit. We I just looked again a few minutes ago, and we haven't gotten any better. Uh, so it's not good. It's still elevated. I think uh some people at least were expecting some kind of deal
before the Fed meeting, but the next opportunity is before the election. My hope goes down on these sort of steps. Anyway, Morgan Stanley, economists expect the Fed to hold on Wednesday as well, but also expect a hike in December
and then again in March. So basically, Goldman, uh, MUFG, Morgan Stanley, and UBS, all these guys and pretty much the market are all expecting hold tomorrow,
hike in December, and then you get sort of the mixed bag of do they expect more hikes in like March or otherwise. Now, NORA research says that Kevin Worsh is actually now at the perfect time to start emphasizing the need for
quantitative tightening, which is literally the last thing that we want to hear right now. But Kevin Wart did indicate that the Federal Reserve has a quantitative tightening task force that is expected to release their report by
year is around the corner. Okay, you got the holidays coming up in the second half of December. And so really, you have about five, six weeks before spirit again. You know, Thanksgiving is in like four weeks and then the two
to be gone for Christmas and then it's like New Year's. You know, it's kind of exciting because it means ski season's coming up again real soon. Uh, that kind of reminds me, you know, we should check uh what date does the Park City Mountain
uh what date does the Park City Mountain Resort open. Oh, what? Why does it say Resort open. Oh, what? Why does it say October 30th? No, that's when the coupon expires for Reinvest One. That's That's not when Park City Mountain Resort opens
up. Oh, no. PCMR opens up. Oh, November 20th. Look at that. right before uh uh closing date, April 9th. We better get freaking snow this season. I'm going to season. But it is true. We do have Look at Look at that. Isn't this a beautiful
at Look at that. Isn't this a beautiful box here? Life lifetime access that goes away uh next year, unless of course you bought and then you do keep lifetime bought and then you do keep lifetime access. Uh okay, so these are what some
of the suits are saying. talking about, I hate to say it, but talking about QT coming could end up being very hawkish along with this true flation data. All of this could lead and and then this idea that there are amber lights not to
hike. Uh-uh, man. All of this is screaming, "Yo, Kevin Worsh, you're probably going to have to talk to us." Now, there are going to be two paths for determining, you know, what's bullish and what's bearish. So, the bearish
commentary is going to sound a lot like anything that implies this war is not coming to an end and anything that implies Donald Trump has not gotten a phone call. Like, I hold out a little bit of hope that if we don't have a deal
you know, see does seem unlikely right now. Say I'll call it like it is. Uh well, unless he's gotten a phone call, unfortunately, he's going to have to
talk to us. And there's a good shot that's going to be bad for the market. Now, today was obviously very good. SK Heinix's earnings came out great. They have like 50% uh of their uh manufacturing production capacity for
2027 and 2028 set up with long-term agreements, which is great. That beat some of the cyclicality. They also beat some of their expectations, which was great. I mean overall the uh earnings were fantastic. I'm going to go through
the earnings call later, but uh we had a quote expectation that the memory supply shortage is going to persist through 2030. Like that's all bullish for the for Worsh because he looks at that and says, hm, yeah, sounds like we're going
through the end of the decade. And so I looked at some of the things in his commentary from last time. And uh well you know first of all let's let's look at just kind of where the market sits. So uh the last two days the market's
done really well on the cues. Uh we know this fortunately the last two days before the market opened up we had really good alpha reports. I knock on nailed it today with the AMD and balloon call out and the last two days on
bullish on the cues and buy the dip. It's done very well. So, but anyway, if we go all the way back to September 16th, join us, by the way, go to the reinvest one.com right here. September 16th. Interestingly, have you or a loved
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was right here and the NASDAQ the day before the meeting closed at 703. So, we're actually going into this a little we're actually going into this a little high. We did drop after the hike because
Kevin Worsh has a tendency of coming across as hawkish because he has to come wouldn't be surprised to see this sort of repeat, but look what happened. Right after the worst catalyst was over, we literally went to all-time freaking
highs. Like the worst catalyst had to pass and you had to get the volatility at the end of the day to literally pick up 60 points on the NASDAQ. Okay, so
like there is a good shot that we are going to get punched in the damn face tomorrow. We are going to get shown the bat. And more than just the bat, we're gonna get riamemed by words. We're gonna get hawkked too tomorrow.
But he kind of has to. Like in fairness, you should go in tomorrow and feel you should go in tomorrow and feel blessed if we don't get hawkked too. If they come out and they give us some Dinoco oil and they just grease our
wheels, that'd be great. So what are some of the things that we would expect to hear from? So I call it no deal, no hope.
so you can watch me sip coffee. No, it's actually because I can make more content if I just don't edit it. I So, I apologize. It kind of works both ways that way. We're like a team. Anyway, last time he said underlying trends have
not improved and he's hardressed to see that they've improved. That was bad. If he says anything like that again, that's hawkish. Market go down by end of day. Okay, last CPI that we got between the last meeting and now was also bad. 6 on
the headline, that was a match, but it was bad. And then we got a, you know, worse than expected.3 versus 2 on core CPI. Not good. 50% of categories rising over 3% annually. We literally did the spreadsheet math on it. It was down from
54%, but it's still 50%. If he brings that up, it's bearish. Trends not passing the test. Bearish. Wixilian rate aka R star not being
because it basically means hey we just comes down and it's not the particular data point that matters it's trends that matter all those words are bearish especially when you look at true
especially when you look at true inflation okay US economy strengthened underlying growth higher I mean that's bullish GDP bearish on rates man rate sensitives are It's going to suck another one. It's going to like the only
reason there's only one reason to hold anything rate sensitive if we don't get an Iran deal. And it is because for some reason you think the layoff recession is faster than you could go buy those rate sensitives.
probably be a teeny tiny if not non-existent portion of your portfolio actually good value opportunities in hardware. But, you know, we'll see. Now,
bullish things. This is this is my expectation that something like this expectation that something like this could happen.
I know you got to convince them all that you're fighting inflation. You're going to bring it down. Nobody does it better than you. You bring it down. You bring the party down. I'm losing the voice. Um,
ends up saying, "We're going to do a deal. Just take it easy tomorrow." Like, we are half signed on the paperwork. Just buy time, baby. Basically. Okay.
some hints. Now, maybe we won't get a call, but I kind of think they're buddy buddy, and I kind of think they're on the phone, and I think Donald Trump is a the point where he's going to know. Kevin Worsh is going to have to put the
act on, especially if there's no deal coming. If a deal is coming, Kevin Worsh is going to hint it to us if he knows about it, which I suspect he will. And here are the key words for that. We've really got to focus on AI
disinflation. We expect oil prices to come down soon. They're not sustainable at these high levels. We have a stable labor market, but we need to pay attention to the strength of
the labor market fading because that could change fast via layoffs. We have departure offers from companies. Microsoft 60,000 or consistent with full employment now, but that could change. And so we have to wait for our prior
rate hike to take effect and wait for task force data and the 10 two has flattened. All of those things are in the bullish camp. Okay. If he reads that
the bullish camp. Okay. If he reads that out, oh boy, that's going to be juicy. I will be optimistic about that. And just like last time where we went skyhigh after the Worsh meeting, we could go skyh high, especially if he reads some
of that stuff out. So then imagine you get past the Fed meeting and you get an Iran deal. Oh my gosh, tickle me big. Okay, now we do have another problem. It has to do with the trends again. So first of all,
there's a comparison to the 1970s. Uh and then we have this right here, which is the long run inflation expectations. So one thing that you can notice here is that in 2019 the trend of inflation expectations was in this lower region
over here. Okay, this is the Federal Reserve published some of these charts. Uh and then I kind of simplified them a little bit. Uh that trend of inflation is now way higher like the the trend box of inflation is meaningfully higher. We
are above this 2024 range right here. Right? That's not good. This means washy worsh has to kick us in the butt. This right here going back to the little
green line going up where in the 1970s we had a trend of higher inflation basically higher lows you know like a technical analyst in stocks higher lows baby higher lows. Well that's what we're getting in the stock market right now
based on inflation and it's not good. It's not good at all. Uh, it's so the terminal that you could get lifetime access to is coming out at the end of
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to love it. >> Why not advertise these things that you knows about this. >> We'll we'll try a little advertising and >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to
>> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.