--- title: 'How to Predict Gap Up or Gap Down in Bank Nifty' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=Q_6vWYmIidU' video_id: 'Q_6vWYmIidU' date: 2026-07-31 duration_sec: 1670 --- # How to Predict Gap Up or Gap Down in Bank Nifty > Source: [How to Predict Gap Up or Gap Down in Bank Nifty](https://youtube.com/watch?v=Q_6vWYmIidU) ## Summary This video teaches retail traders how to forecast whether the Indian stock market (Nifty/Bank Nifty) will open gap up or gap down the next day. It introduces a three-part 'Holy Trinity' framework — overnight global sentiment, FII/DII cash flows, and OI/PCR — plus a last-45-minutes closing rule and a practical checklist. The speaker emphasizes everything is probability-based, not guaranteed. ### Key Points - **Holy Trinity Framework** [04:47] — Gap prediction is built on three components: Overnight Global Sentiment, FII/DII cash flows, and OI + PCR with Max Pain. Combining these gives a 70-80% probability of predicting the next day's gap. - **Overnight Global Sentiments** [05:28] — Check US indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ) during Indian night hours; the US is a developed market that directly influences India. Also monitor Asian markets (China, Japan, Hong Kong) and Gift Nifty futures. - **FII/DII Cash Flows Are Commitments** [11:24] — Cash market buying/selling by FIIs is a commitment signal, unlike derivative hedges. Large cash flows indicate institutional conviction about the market's next direction. - **FII Threshold for Gap Prediction** [12:11] — FII cash buying above Rs 1,000 crore suggests a high chance of a gap up; FII cash selling above Rs 1,000 crore suggests a high chance of a gap down. - **OI + PCR: Option Chain Insight** [13:08] — Strong OI addition at out-of-the-money call strikes signals resistance and a possible gap down. Strong OI addition at OTM put strikes signals support and a possible gap up. - **PCR Extreme Values** [15:55] — PCR above 1.6 signals extreme bullishness and an overheated market, often leading to a gap down. PCR around 0.7 signals extreme bearishness, with a higher chance of a gap up to shake out sellers. - **Watch the Last 45 Minutes** [17:53] — From 2:45 to 3:30, sudden sharp selling indicates a likely gap down next day; sudden sharp buying indicates a likely gap up. The close is controlled by big players. - **V-Shape Recovery Signal** [18:55] — A sharp V-shape recovery in the last 45 minutes, even in a downtrend, often leads to a gap up. A reverse V-shape (selling) in an uptrend indicates a possible gap down. - **80% Gap Fill Logic** [22:53] — If US markets rally over 1% without a solid reason, the resulting gap up in Nifty is filled immediately next day about 90% of the time. Genuine event gaps (RBI policy, budget, elections, Fed, geopolitical shocks) tend not to fill. - **Gap Up Checklist** [25:23] — Conditions for a high-probability gap up: US markets up 0.5%+, Gift Nifty up 0.4–1%, FII cash buying above Rs 1,000 crore, and PCR between 0.9 and 1.2. If these align, there's a 70–80% chance of gap up. - **Gap Down Checklist** [26:17] — Conditions for a high-probability gap down: US markets down 0.5%+, Gift Nifty down 0.5–1%, FII cash selling above Rs 1,000 crore, and PCR between 1.3 and 1.8. ### Conclusion No method can guarantee a gap direction, but combining global sentiment, institutional flows, option chain data, and the closing auction's last 45 minutes can shift the odds to 70–80%. Treat all signals as probabilities and manage risk accordingly. ## Transcript can predict in advance whether the market will open gap up or gap down the next day. The rule I am telling you is based on my personal experience and observation. Market closing leaves some such signs in half an hour to 45 minutes which are very high chances that the market may tell us. I am going to give you one such indicator. I am going to give you that will tell you the chances of the market opening gap up. If these checklists are fulfilled then there is a very high chance of gap up in the market. And if these chances of gap up or gap down in the market are almost nil. And And if you understand these three, then 70 to 80% of your work will become easier. 70 to 80% of the time you will be able to trade whether the market is going to open gap up the next day or the market is going to open gap down the next day. So if anything positive or negative is happening in the US markets, it is directly or indirectly connected to our market somewhere or the other. So brother, all you have to do is see how our US markets are performing at night. Gift Nifty Futures, it will show you whether the market can open gap up FIIs are buying in cash somewhere above Rs 1000 crore here, then there is a very high chance that the market, if suppose I want to know whether the market will open gap up or gap down the next day and the market is running right now, then this is a very good way by which you can find out that the possibility of the market opening gap up is very high. likely to be filled somewhere the next day. only. I am not a Savvy Registered Advisor and this is not financial advice. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk. So hello friends, welcome to the channel. Welcome all of you to this new video. Today's video we are making on another great topic. Many people do intraday trading and option trading here. And their biggest question is that if I know in advance whether the market will gap up or gap down the next day, then I can capture very good moves and make a lot of money. So in today's video we will understand how you can predict in advance whether the market will open gap up or gap down the next day and I am not going to tell you to look at Gift Nifty because apart from Gift Nifty there are many such factors which you will know in advance when the market is running on the previous day only then you will come to know whether the market is going to open gap up the next day or gap down. What is the possibility so that you can take BTST trades or STBBTT trades. So if you like the video then definitely like the video. If you are new to the channel, subscribe to the channel without wasting any time, let us start the Why are they created? How many types of gaps are there? And how to trade them how to trade gap down? I have made two videos on a scalping strategy. in the description box comment section you will also get the link to what gaps are and how to trade them. And I have explained a premium scalping strategy of 9:15 916 which is on gaps trading. You can also check out that video. In today's video we are going to talk about So let's talk about what we're going to cover in today's video. The first one Treaty for Gap Prediction. What does Holy Trinity mean? There are three parts to it. If you understand these three parts then you can predict the gap very easily. you can predict the gap very easily. day closing rule for gap prediction. Market closing leaves some such signs in half an hour to 45 minutes which are very high chances that the market tells us whether the market will open gap up the next day or the market will open gap down the next day. So if you see that sign in the price during intraday, then you can create your positions in advance. After that 80% gap fill logic. Look at the last video I made on gap trading where we talked about what gaps are? How many types of not. But in this I am going to tell you which are those gaps which get those gaps which do not get filled the next day. I am going to share with you 80% gap fill logic on YouTube. So just what do you have to do? lovely positive comment is very important for us to motivate and motivate us. After that we will talk about the Gap Up Gap Down Probability Indicator. I am going to give you one such indicator. I am going to give you a tell you whether there are chances of the market opening gap up or gap down. So there are a lot of things we have to cover. Without wasting any time let us start the video and in between the video there is a great little bonus for you guys. But it will be available only to those people who are our loyal subscribers, loyal I am going to give you such a bonus that you will get a benefit of almost ₹52,000. How can that be ? For that you have to watch the video till the end without skipping. First of all let us talk about what is this Holy Trinity? Holy Trinity for Gap Prediction. It consists of three parts. It comes in three parts. Firstly Overnight Global Sentiment, FII, DI Cash Flows and OIPCR plus Max Pay. If we combine these three then it is called Holy Treaty. And called Holy Treaty. And if you understand these three, then 70 to 80% of your work will become easier. 70 to 80% of the times you will be able to predict whether the market is going to open gap up the next day or the market is going to open gap down the next day. And when you know in advance that the market may open gap up or gap down, then you can take advantage of it by creating positions. Right? Let's move ahead. Sentiments. Now what comes in overnight global sentiments? First come the US indices. The main two are Dow Jones. And one more thing is your NSDDC. Ok? So basically, you have to understand one thing that our Indian markets are not a developed market. Our economy is not developed and our market is also not developed. If there is any proper market in the world which is a developed market, a strong economy, a developed economy, a developed market, then it is the US. Ok? Now see, India is still dependent on the US. If I talk about markets, because there is a saying that if the US sneezes, all the other markets get fever. Ok? So if anything positive or negative is happening in the US markets, it is directly or indirectly connected to our market somewhere or the other. So whatever is seen in the US has a direct impact on the Indian markets as well. If there is a Fed meeting, then brother, the Fed is not holding the meeting for us. Brother, the Fed is holding a meeting for the US. He is cutting rates, he is increasing rates , he is doing it for the US. But you all must be aware that somewhere around 70% to 60% of the liquidity in the markets across the world is due to US investors, US people and the US government. So any decision taken there and our market is also included in it. Right? So brother, you just have to see how your US markets, Dow Jones, NSDCC are performing at night. Is it positive or negative at night, is there any news stone there? There is no event there. No data is being announced there seen somewhere or the other in our markets. Look, the US still has a good influence on the Indian market. if I talk about the crypto market, anything that happens in the US market is positive. The crypto market is running like crazy. Anything that happens in the US market is negative. The crypto market is running down like crazy. Whereas crypto is not from the US market. But somewhere the US has adopted crypto. He is working on crypto. crypto markets are somehow You have to understand this. After that comes our Asian market. Now see, the US market opens at night. It runs at night. It starts at 6:30-7:00 pm and runs till 1:30 am. Ok ? So it is very important to see what is happening there at that time our market remains closed at that time. Now our market opens at 9:15 am but We are also a part of the Asian markets, but brother, China's market will open before us. Japan's market will open before us. Hong Kong market will open before us. Now look, these markets do not have a very big impact. These markets do not have a huge impact. Many times it has happened that the Chinese market and Hong Kong Many times we are very negative. This is positive. But when do they take effect? Their impact is felt when, for example, there is no significant news in the US markets. There is no specific data. And US market is positive. And we are indicating a gap up. But without any reason, some big news is not a data point. how to see the gap up? I will also talk about how to see the gap down and from where to see it. if there is selling in China, Japan or Asian markets, then the gap up that we were seeing gets negated somewhere. Now many people will ask me, our brothers, that brother, from where should we see whether the market will open gap up or gap down, we will talk about that. I'm going to tell you right now. But before that like the video because the information that I am going to give you in this video, I can say with great confidence that you will not get this kind of information on the entire internet. See if you want to know how many points the market can open gap up or gap down the next day. Look, this is will search on the internet, you will search on Google, Gift Nifty Gift Nifty Futures. Futures, it will show you whether the market can open gap up or gap down. Earlier it was SGX. Now this thing is traded in our Gift City, Gift Nifty. If you want to know because here only those people trade who have a lot of money and power and there is no place for the common man here. Common man does trading that takes place in Gift Nifty and Gift City does not come out, so many here. If you want me to make a detailed video on this, then please brother will bring that video. But yes, if you want to know that brother, at our Gift Nifty keeps running, so you get an idea from that, but in a running market or you want to know exactly that brother, the market will open gap up or gap down already when the markets are running, suppose today it is the time for the market to close, market will open gap up or gap down the next day, then this video is for that, so you have to watch the video completely here, okay, after that you can see Gift Nifty futures here, these three methods are yours and my simple rule is that if the If the US market is closing positive. Also, at that time, Gift Nifty is also positive here, so there is a very high possibility brother that the market will open gap up. Because many times it happens that Gift Nifty shows you +00 or -00, so when it shows +100, it means that people think that brother, the market will open gap up or the market will open gap down here. But what happens many times is that the market opens flat. The market is showing gap up many times. The market opens gap down. This also happens. This is not that reliable. That's why I'm telling you you should use so that you get some clarity and you can come closer to reality. Right? So there are three things you need to look at in overnight sentiment. opening of Asian markets the next day and Gift Nifty futures. And if the US and the price in Nifty is negative, then there is a very high chance that the market may open gap down. Now you don't have to use only this concept. What did I say? Holy Trinity. There are many other logics besides that. But this was your first part in the Holy Trinity. Your second part of the Holy Trinity is FII DI cash flow. See, there is a saying in the market that cash flows are commitments, not intraday hedges. If big players are buying here in cash. See, in options trading, futures trading, derivatives, they fluctuate daily and sometimes they take a view of 1 month, 2 months, 3 months. But if they are buying in cash, it means brother, there is a very high chance that they are committing to something. And if it is in good quantity, now If cash buying is happening for how many crores, then we can say that there is a gap up opening and if cash selling is happening for how many crores, then we can say that there is a gap down somewhere in the market, but if buying and selling is happening market will open gap up or gap down. Now the question is how many crores, so if FIIs are question is how many crores, so if FIIs are very high chance that there are other factors also in the market, but the market can open gap up somewhere. but the market can open gap up somewhere. And if FIIs are selling more than Rs 1000 crore, then there is a very high chance that the market may open gap down. is a very high chance that the market may open gap down. parts in the video. By combining everything, I am going to give you a complete filter. So that you can immediately understand whether the market will open gap up or gap down. saying don't panic. Only if you watch the entire video will we be immediately start judging that he is then you will not be able to reach that conclusion. so I am telling you that you have to watch the video till the end. Ok? The third part of the Holi train is the most important part. This is the most important, logical, technical and methodical subpart. What is his name? OI plus PCR method. Now you will know the meaning of OI. I assume. OI stands for Open Interest n't know about OI. If you do n't know about PCR. If you want us to talk about OI on this channel, talk about how to use PCR, then please and if this video gets 5000 likes, then I will bring that video too very soon. Ok? Now how can we determine from OI plus PCR whether the market may open gap up or gap down? Let's say there is say there is In which strikes? In Out the Money Strikes. There is a very strong addition happening, let's say you looked at the option chain. Looked at the option chain, wherever the market is. For example, suppose the market is at 25,000. Ok? So if the market is at 25,000 then your call of 25,500 is out of the money. Ok? If here the OI Ok? If here the OI is continuously increasing and on that day, that is, the day you are watching strong addition in OI on that day. What does this mean brother? This means that the market is finding resistance somewhere. And if the market is looking for its resistance somewhere, then what is the possibility? There is a possibility of a gap down. So whenever you want to know from OI whether the market can open gap up or gap down, be it call or put, you have to look at their OTM size. If OI addition is happening in calls, much more than normal, then so there is a possibility of gap down. And if there is an OI addition to the puts in out of the money strikes, there is an means people are continuously selling puts and that too out of the money. This means that the market is expecting support somewhere and there is a possibility of a gap up in the market. I hope this gives you some clarity. Rest I will slowly reach the conclusion and go till the end. So, if there is even the slightest doubt in your mind about how the gap is up, how the gap is down, I am going to clear all those doubts here, I am going to end them. Ok? Now let's talk about PCR extreme values. We have already talked about OI, very extreme addition in the OI of put, then brother how can the market gap up, gap down open, now if I talk about PCR value, then pay attention, how do we check PCR, it is a very basic question, just Google it, you will get PCR of Nifty, PCR of Bank Nifty, just Google it, a video on how to use it, then tell me in the comment section, your brother will bring it, okay, now pay attention, here if the PCR is more than 1.6. If PCR is greater than 1.6, it means brother, it is very bullish. What does PCR greater > 1.6 mean? That is, the open interest of put is almost 1.6 times more than the open interest of call. That means put writing is increasing. Puts are being oversold. This means something bullish somewhere. Right? And bullish extreme bullish and somewhere or the other the market goes into extreme bullish zone, booking is seen in the market and many times the profit booking is seen through a very big gap down that the market is continuously going up, everything is fine, suddenly there is a very big gap down, so in this case suddenly you see that gap down when the PCR is 1.6 or more, it means the market is very overheated, so there the market can open gap down somewhere or if the PCR is 0.7, that means the open interest of call is more than the open interest of put. This means that the So there are very high chances that the market may open a gap up because the market is continuously falling. The market is continuously falling. So the market may open up a gap to supply and shock sellers. And when might the gap up open? When this activity is seen in PCR. It is based on PCR or values. When OI, whether it is for call or put, there is extreme addition on out of the money strikes. So somewhere the possibility of gap up or gap down in the market increases here. So we talked about Holi trending. and talked about PCR and OI method. Now this is very important. These rules that I am telling you are based on my personal experience and observation. You guys tell me whether this is right or not. Look at the previous day closing rule, suppose I want to know whether the market will open gap up or gap down the next day this is a very good method by which you can find out or by which you can make a prediction that yes brother, the probability of the market opening gap up is very high. See, the last 45 minutes are very important. last 45 minutes are very important. Last 45 minutes means Last 45 minutes means from 2:45 to 3:30, you should notice two things in these last 45 minutes. If there is sudden sharp selling or sudden sharp buying in the last 45 minutes, it means that there is a very high chance that if there is sudden sharp selling in the last 45 minutes, then the market may open gap down the next day. There is a very high chance. You notice. If the market is running normally in the last 45 minutes of the day. It is trading normally and if suddenly buying starts in the last 45 minutes, it close the market because there is a saying that markets are opened by amateurs and closed by professionals, so the big players want to close the market in their direction. If there is sudden buying in the last 45 minutes, it means there is a very high chance that the market may open gap up the next day. Look, none of the methods I am telling you are going to work 100%. These are all probabilities. 70 is 80% probability. Sometimes you will be wrong. If you get it right seven out of 10 times, you will get it wrong two to three times. I am telling you this in advance. This is a condition when there is sudden selling in the last 45 minutes, then there is a possibility of gap down. If buying comes suddenly then there is a possibility of gap up. Apart from that, suppose the market is moving in a downtrend and in the last 45 minutes there is a sharp V shape recovery or the market is moving in an upward trend and in the last 45 minutes there is continuous reverse V shape selling in the market. This also means that brother, if the last one is basically a concept, I am extending it a bit that if there is a V shape recovery in the last 45 minutes, then the If the V-shaped recovery is on the upside, the market will open gap up the next day. There is a very high chance. If we are seeing V shape recovery and V shape in the market there is a very high chance that the market will open gap down. And the simple logic behind this is that big players do not have control over where to open the market. Where do the big places have control over where they should close the market? So, when suddenly in the last half hour, 40 minutes, 45 minutes, you must have noticed that many times you get to see big moves in the last half hour, 45 minutes, then there is And many times the logic is that big players look at the that big players look at the importantly to decide where they want the market to move the next day. Now we have discussed many things and many more things have to be discussed so that your clarity on the concept whether the market will open gap up or gap down the next day becomes absolutely clear for intraday. But before that I am going to share a bonus with you. And this bonus is going to give ₹52,000. Why am I saying this? Because in this video, the first 300 comments, what are the first 300 people who comment on this video going to get ? They are going to get our complete our complete Mac Crypto VIP Club membership. Mac Crypto VIP Club membership. What is the membership of Mac Crypto VIP Club, brother? In this membership, you are trades I'm making, my personal trades, the opportunities I share, the of cost. Which I run Algo system which normally we sell at some cost if you are a member of our Crypto VIP Cup then you get it absolutely free of cost. And normally the charge for VIP membership is almost ₹52,000. But the first 300 people who comment on this video will get it for free. Now I hope you guys have commented by now and you will be the first one to have 300 comments. Now if you have done this then how do you make a claim? The simple way to claim is to first take a screenshot of your comment and in the description box comment section you will find the link of our Telegram team. If that link is working then go there and send your screenshot to our Telegram team. Our team will can you get access to it for free? Follow that process and you will And if that link is not working in the description box comment section of Telegram then you can message our team on Telegram. Our team has the can message our team on Telegram. Our team has the same username @MacTeam22. Please send a message here with your screenshot. Our team will share a simple process. Please follow that process. You will get all the benefits. We are currently If you guys comment, I will also bring a video of the algo to show how you can deploy the algo in your system. Now there is an interesting criterion which I call 80% gap fill criterion. Meaning, which are the gaps that will be filled the next day and which are the gaps that will such gaps which are not filled the next day. Fills are made after 2 days, 4 days, 5 days, 7 days, 10 days. So how to identify them? See, the simple way is that what happens many times is that the markets like Nifty do not have that much volume. Sometimes there is a thin volume. There is very little prices often move erratically. So sometimes due to thin overnight reason due to low volume, the market may sometimes open gap up or gap down. So if the US markets are up by, let's say, randomly more than 1%. Suppose you look at the US market, you look at Dubai Joss, you look at NSDDC and you see that it is above 1%. But there is no solid reason why it is above 1%. There is no news, no event. And still if it is above 1% it means there is no true reason. The day this happens, there is a very high chance that Bhaiya will also react to his gift which is Nifty. So that will also indicate a gap up. So when we open a gap up in such a condition, then 90% of the times the gap gets filled immediately the next day. The filled immediately the next day. The way to trade if let's say the US market is up 1%. There is no major data. There you know that our market will open gap up, so if you see any setup being formed here for gap filling, I have created a scalping setup for you guys, 9:15 916 Premium Scalping Setup, which you will see, you will also see it on the screen here, and the you can definitely check out that setup, it will help you a lot. Now, which are those gaps which are not filled at all the next day? There are many such gaps whose chances of getting filled somewhere the next day are very less. See, when there is an RBI policy, the budget is announced , the election results are announced , the Fed meeting is held or there is any war or geopolitical ah, there is a shock somewhere. Due to these, suppose the market opens gap up the next day or due to these the market opens gap down, then there are very less chances that this gap in the market will be filled on the same day. Somewhere or the other, a Somewhere or the other, a continuation move is seen after a gap up or gap down. This means that you can market does not fill the gap up. The If the market opens gap down due to these events, then somewhere the market keeps moving in its direction downwards here. You have to understand this thing here. Now I am telling you a method by which you do Certain condition is a certain checklist. If these checklists are fulfilled then there is a very high chance of gap up in the market and if these checklists are not fulfilled then the gap down in the market are negligible. Ok ? What is this checklist? First of all, we are talking about the checklist of gap up. If you follow this checklist, there is a very high chance that the market will open gap up 70% of the time. Whenever you print, the market gap up will definitely open. What is the first one? US markets are up somewhere around 1/2% or more. US markets are up 1/2% or more. Gift Nifty is up between 0.4 to 1%. Gift Nifty has to be checked. If on the same day the FIIs have made purchases of more than Rs 1000 crore in cash. Buying of Rs 1000 crore or more has been done in cash. And the PCR for that day is between 0.9 to 1.2. If all these four conditions are fulfilled then there is 70 to 80% chance that the market is going to open gap up the next day. And if you want to market will open gap up or gap down, then 45 minutes before the market market suddenly moves in any direction, But if you have to go after the market is closed, if you follow all these checklists then you will understand that brother, yes the market is going to I talk about gap down, you have to find out whether the market will open gap down the next day or not. So, simple for him. If the US market is down by 1/2% or more If the US market is down by 1/2% or more , Gift Nifty is down between 0.5, 0.6% to 1%. Along with that, on the same day, FIIs sold goods worth Rs 1000 crore or more in cash. And also the PCR is overheated. It is between 1.3 to 1.8. If all these conditions are met then there is a very high chance that the met then there is a very high chance that the market is going to open gap down. Right? So I hope this video has given you a very detailed clarity on how we can predict whether the market will open gap up or gap down before the next day. But no matter how much we talk, no matter how much we use our brains, we are just predicting here. And whatever concepts I told you, these all are probabilities somewhere or the other. Even if all these things happen, there is no guarantee. And there are no guarantees in the market. If you had know with 100% clarity whether the market will open gap up or gap down, then no one can tell. No such person has been born in this world yet who can tell you this. somehow help you understand the probability and possibility that yes brother, the next day the market may open gap up or gap down. I hope you enjoyed the video. You must have learned a lot from the video. If you please like the video. Please leave a sweet comment. Avail the bonus and subscribe to the channel. I will meet you in the next video. Till then stay safe. Have a nice day. Love you ol.