---
title: 'How I Profit Trading the World Cup Knockouts on Polymarket [Full Strategy]'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=1F2ZCbHNX0Q'
video_id: '1F2ZCbHNX0Q'
date: 2026-08-01
duration_sec: 948
---

# How I Profit Trading the World Cup Knockouts on Polymarket [Full Strategy]

> Source: [How I Profit Trading the World Cup Knockouts on Polymarket (Full Strategy)](https://youtube.com/watch?v=1F2ZCbHNX0Q)

## Summary

The video presents a comprehensive strategy for profiting from World Cup knockout stage matches on Polymarket. Johnny, host of In The Money, shares three core betting angles—'no' on underdogs, unders on goal totals, and both teams to score—based on observed defensive trends in the tournament.

### Key Points

- **Intro and Previous Video** [00:01] — Johnny recaps his earlier video on profiting from the World Cup group stage using Polymarket, noting it was well-received.
- **Group Stage Strategy Worked** [01:18] — There were no major upsets, only draws, so betting 'no' on underdogs was the best play and generated profit.
- **Knockout Bracket Structure** [02:50] — With 32 teams, the knockout round has 16 games, followed by 8, 4, 2, and 1, leaving about 25–30 matches.
- **Defensive Trend in Knockouts** [03:16] — Matches are tightly contested and defensive, with underdogs 'parking the bus' to force extra time and penalties.
- **Strategy 1: Unders on Goal Totals** [03:45] — He places $1,000 on under 3.5 goals for Norway vs Ivory Coast at 74 cents, expecting low-scoring games.
- **Targeting Unders Throughout** [05:29] — Unlike the group stages, he mostly takes unders in knockout matchups like Portugal-Croatia and Mexico-Ecuador.
- **Betting 'No' on Underdogs** [06:30] — He profits by betting 'no' on weaker teams (e.g., Ivory Coast not to win), which hedges against draws or losses.
- **Using Spreads for Better Prices** [07:30] — He also uses spreads like 'Norway not to win by more than 1.5 goals' to get more favorable odds.
- **Strategy 2: Both Teams to Score** [09:37] — In competitive matches, he expects both teams to score, and sees value in markets like Portugal vs Croatia.
- **Recap of Three Angles** [10:48] — The three strategies are: 'nos' against lesser sides, unders, and both teams to score.
- **Capital and Copy Trading Tools** [13:28] — He mentions Funding Predicts for funded accounts and the Share app for copying top traders.

### Conclusion

The presenter advocates a cautious, value-driven approach to knockout matches, focusing on defensive play, hedging with 'no' bets, and under totals, while leveraging funded accounts and copy trading to scale profits.

## Transcript

The whole world is focused on the World Cup  at this point in time, and there are millions   and millions of dollars going into these markets  on Poly Market every single day. In this video,   I'm going to go over how I plan to profit  and my strategy on the knockout stages. So,  
we are heading into the knockout matches.  We have the bracket set for the entirety   of the rest of the World Cup. So, how are  we planning to profit on this? There are   people making tons of capital by trading the  World Cup. I'll show you in this video. So,  
Guys, if you're new to the channel, drop down  below, hit the like button, subscribe to the   channel. My name is Johnny. This is In the  Money, and we go over everything you need to   win in crypto prediction markets and more Monday  through Friday on this channel. And of course,  
a big shout out to our sponsors down below in the  description. Let's just go ahead and jump right   into it. I had posted this video here two and a  half weeks ago: How to Profit on the World Cup  
using Poly Market. Now, you all really enjoyed  this video. The feedback, the views, the likes,   and the comments. It feels like you guys really  took advantage of the information that was shared   there, which is awesome to see because the  strategy actually worked out quite well.
Looking at goal totals against big teams versus  some of the weaker teams, we saw some of these   teams put up crazy amounts of goals from France to  Norway, which had some high-scoring games. Spain,  
Germany, etc. Some of these teams ended up going  over those team totals and those goal totals. And   then also, most importantly, we really profited  on the "no." So there were no major upsets during  
the World Cup rounds, the group stages, should I  say. There were ties. There were not big upsets,   not wins by the lesser side. We had some shocking  draws from Cape Verde. We had a couple of draws  
for some of these big clubs, but otherwise,  they didn't win. So, if you traded the "no"   on those positions against the weaker team, you  were hedging. And so many people lost money by   just putting money on the popular squad. England  when they drew, I believe it was against Ghana,  
I think it was. And then also, especially Spain  versus Cape Verde. So going "no" on the underdogs   was the best play possible for those group stages  because there weren't big upsets, but there  
were big draws. So you were able to hedge that  position. So we were able to come out in profit   during the group stages, and that was really  thanks to the info shared in this first video. Today is more so focused on the knockout stages.  Let's look at the knockout bracket here. We can  
see we got a lot of action. I believe the World  Cup now with 32 teams. So there's 16 games this   round, eight games next round. There's going to  be four games, two games, and then one game. So  
we have about 25 to 30 matches left, more or less,  just quick math off the top of my head. We can see   here some of these results coming in. And you can  see a lot of these have been tightly contested,  
highly defensive matches. So that's going to  factor into our strategy. A lot of these teams   now are going to try to park the bus if they  are underdogs. Teams like Paraguay yesterday,   teams like Morocco. The Netherlands really  didn't do the majority of the attacking,  
and we'll take you to penalties." And  Morocco was able to win that game. So, how are we planning to trade the knockouts?  Let's just jump right into it. First and foremost,  
some of these matchups you see right now: Norway  versus the Ivory Coast, or France versus Sweden,   or later tonight, we have Mexico versus Ecuador.  And I'll actually show you some of my positions   right now. So for today, I have under three and  a half goals on Norway versus Ivory Coast. Now,  
this is going to definitely play a factor for my  first initial strategy, which is goal totals. And   opposed to the group stages where a lot of these  high-class squads were scoring a ton of goals,  
you can actually come through here, and let's  go over to Norway versus the Ivory Coast. This   is actually going on right now. And you can see  here I have $1,000 on $1,088. Really, it was about  
$900 in risk on under three and a half goals. So  to me, after watching all those games yesterday,   the highest scoring being Brazil and Japan at 2 to  1, these teams are really trying to park the bus,  
trying not to expose their backline, trying not  to get beat. A lot of these teams are willing to   play for that overtime, extra time period, and  then also penalty shootouts because if you get   to penalties, truly anything can happen. So for  me, in a lot of these tighter contested matchups,  
even though I think Norway is better than the  Ivory Coast, they've been playing quite nicely   throughout the tournament. So for me, I have  under three and a half goals. And of course,   the standard line is two and a half, but I  was able to get this at 74 cents. So a nice,  
33% or so return on investment if this was to  come through. Right now, this game is in the   second half. Let's just check in. 63 minutes in  the books, and this one is one to nothing, and  
we would have to have sacrificed four goals for us  to lose that position. So that's a big one for me. I'm going to be looking at the knockout  bracket throughout the tournament, and   just kind of looking through these, I think France  and Sweden might not be applicable for this one,  
but Portugal and Croatia certainly. I don't  see a ton of goals there. When you look at   stuff like Belgium and Senegal, I think that's  going to be a pretty tightly contested defensive   matchup. Mexico versus Ecuador, I would be very  surprised to see that one become a goal fest at  
the end of the day. Argentina, Cape Verde, Cape  Verde has played very solid defense over the   course of this tournament. So, there are a lot of  games that I'm going to be targeting goal totals,   but the opposite way. I'm going to be going  a lot of unders, whereas in the group stages,  
I was going over most of the time. And then also,  I'm taking advantage of "nos" again against these   underdogs. So like today, you could have gotten  Ivory Coast at 70% just not to win the match.  
That is a very, very good proposition. And also, I  got Norway not to win by more than one and a half,   which means if Norway just wins by one, I win that  selection. It was a little bit better price. It  
was in the 60s as opposed to going against Ivory  Coast directly. But this is definitely a type of   a round where yesterday you could have gone "no"  against Paraguay. You could have gone "no" against   either Netherlands or Morocco. Really, most people  would have gone against Morocco. Even though  
Morocco did advance, and that was not a surprise  to me, but I think to a lot of people today you   could go Ivory Coast "no." I think that Sweden's  a little too expensive today, for example. But   just looking at some of these matches, you could  probably go Cape Verde "no." You could look at  
something like Croatia "no," Austria "no," Bosnia  "no," just depending on the percentages. So,   that protects you if there's a draw or if the  other team wins, you win that selection. So,  
it is a perfect hedge. And also, I'm taking  advantage of spreads. So that is what we are   on right now. Just Norway not to win by more than  one goal. Also, later today I have France to win,  
and then I have Mexico versus Ecuador under two  and a half goals. So this goes back to that first   strategy. I just think a lot of these teams are  going to be more physical. They're going to be   really putting out their best defense while also  trying to put an attack out there. You don't want  
to get compromised on that back end, especially  with some of these tighter matched teams. So that   is strategy number one. I am certainly looking  to play spreads because I think that these games   will be very close, and you can alternate these  spreads. You can manipulate these spreads on  
Poly Market. And then number two, I'm absolutely  looking to exploit the goal market because to me,   I would be very surprised to see a lot of three to  three games throughout this knockout stage. A lot  
of these teams, and especially the lesser teams,  are just going to be really parking the bus,   trying not to sacrifice a goal as  opposed to going full out attack,   and then the counterattack is going to beat  these lesser teams. These teams are going to  
definitely play defense. So that's strategy  number one, is definitely exploiting totals. Before we move on, also I do want to give a  shout. If you want to follow all of the action,   so get all of my trades, get all of my  team's trades across prediction markets. We  
are opening up the In The Money Discord just  for $49 a month. Literally, probably one of   the highest value per dollar ROI that you can  get out there if you're joining a server, and  
especially for prediction markets. We're one of  the first catered Poly Market and Kalshi servers   out there. You'll get all of my selections,  strategies, etc. So check out inthemoney.live   down below in the description. It's just $49  a month. We haven't even opened this yet. So,  
you will be literally first in line. And we've  been absolutely crushing this World Cup alongside   some of the traders that will be joining me.  So, check out inthemoney.live down below. Number two, another market that I'm certainly  going to be taking a look at throughout this  
tournament is both teams to score. So, now that  we are in the knockouts, a lot of these teams,   yesterday we saw three different games. All three  of them were both teams to score, and they were  
all one to one at certain points in time. So, that  caters to the unders like we were talking about.   But number two, it caters to both teams scoring.  And if I was to look across the board here, I   could totally see Portugal, Croatia one to one at  some point in time. I could even see Austria break  
the line and score against Spain. Bosnia and USA  maybe not. Bosnia's attack is not the best, but   then again, they could absolutely break through.  A match like Australia and Egypt, both teams to  
score. I absolutely could see that. Something  like Switzerland and Algeria, maybe not. There   will definitely be times like yesterday both teams  to score was money in the bank for the Morocco  
game and especially for the Japan game. And  I tweeted out yesterday, this was one of my   picks. My favorite play yesterday was Brazil and  Japan. Both teams to score, and this one cashed   by the beginning of the second half. So that's  another market I'm definitely looking to exploit.
So so far, we are going "nos" still against  the lesser sides because even if they tie after   regulation, it doesn't count for penalty kicks. So  it's just regulation time plus stoppage, the extra  
added time. The 30-minute overtime period does not  count for these regulation plays. So yesterday,   "no" Paraguay, "no" either Morocco or Netherlands,  paid out quite nicely. And today, people who are  
on "nos" against the Ivory Coast are already  looking like that's going to be a pretty secure   profit, as long as this game holds, which there  is 20 minutes left in this match. So "nos" against  
lesser sides. That still stands from the initial  Poly Market profit video for the World Cup. Number   two is goals, but more so I'm targeting unders  in this tournament. I am not targeting overs.  
I think that a lot of these teams are going to  be physical. They're going to be chippy. They're   going to be playing defense. Number three is both  teams to score. We've seen it every single match   so far, other than this one, which I did not  play both teams to score in this one as I am  
on the under three and a half goals. But I do  think both teams to score will be quite a nice   selection throughout. And especially, like I said,  looking at this bracket, I can see a ton of games   lining up where it might be two to one, one to one  after regulation. Some of these games like France,  
Sweden could be three or four to one. That's not  one I'm going to take the under on personally.   But this is where I'm finding value, especially  after day one of the knockouts. But just seeing   the way that these smaller teams are playing. I  say smaller because Germany, Netherlands, Brazil,  
even the way that Japan was playing, and then  watching right now how Ivory Coast is playing.   They're playing very conservatively.  They know they need to break through,   but they also know they can't let Haaland beat  them on the backside. And you're going to see  
a lot of that from these smaller teams  throughout the rest of the tournament. So those are the three angles I'm really looking  to exploit: "nos" against the weaker side,   also unders and manipulating that line to two  and a half, three and a half depending on the  
game and depending on the values. If I can  get under three and a halfs in some of these   tightly contested matchups at the 70% range,  that is an absolute play for me. Obviously,   this is matchup dependent. You need to do  research, look at these teams, the matchup itself,  
etc. And then number three also is both  teams to score in some of these very,   very competitive matchups. We've seen  every single side so far other than this   one go both teams to score. So, we'll see  what happens here after today's matches.
I do want to give a shout out as well. I know a  lot of people are looking to trade Poly Market   and maybe don't have access to a ton of capital.  But that changes now. You can actually get funded  
on Poly Market through Funding Predicts. I think  it's one of the best values out there actually for   a 10K challenge. So, you pass this challenge,  they'll give you $10,000 to trade with for   $72. You can use the link down below and get 20%  off as well. If you trade and hit the target,  
they will fund your account with $10,000,  and then you keep 90% of the profits. So,   you don't even have to risk your own capital.  That was the platform I was showing you guys today  
on these markets, and I'm actively looking right  now to get a 25K account funded. I'm in progress   on that challenge as we speak. So, that's the way  I plan to profit in the group stages. And then of  
course, last but not least, I would check out the  Share app because you can see the most profitable   traders. There are guys making millions of dollars  on the World Cup right now, and you can literally   get notified on their action. You can follow  them, get push notifications to your phone,  
and then literally instantly copy trade them.  So, if you don't feel like you have an edge,   there are smart traders on there, and you can  follow my picks on there as well. I also put   some of my action through the Share app. So,  I'll link down below Funding Predicts if you're  
looking to potentially get capital to trade with  on Poly Market, and then also the Share app. But   above all else, it's been a very profitable World  Cup so far despite some of the shocking upsets in  
this last round and the draws in the group stage.  But because we are more so exploiting the "nos"   over the "yeses," that's really balanced itself  out, and we haven't been burnt too hard on those   selections. So, that's my strategy moving forward  in the knockout stages. We're going to have some  
live streams for some games coming up as well.  So, guys, subscribe to the channel down below if   you're new. We talk about Poly Market, investing,  crypto every single week here on this channel. And   like the video down below. It helps us get in  front of more people who are prediction market,  
Poly Market enthusiasts just like yourself. I'll  see you guys on tomorrow's video. As always,   trade responsibly, my friends, and  of course, stay bullish, my friends.