---
title: 'Arbitrage Betting Just Got WORSE (But Here''s Why That''s Good)'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=XKJn4QA8y1U'
video_id: 'XKJn4QA8y1U'
date: 2026-08-24
duration_sec: 465
channel: 'Billy Collins'
---

# Arbitrage Betting Just Got WORSE (But Here's Why That's Good)

> Source: [Arbitrage Betting Just Got WORSE (But Here's Why That's Good)](https://youtube.com/watch?v=XKJn4QA8y1U)

## Summary

The video discusses how arbitrage betting is becoming less viable as sportsbooks get smarter, but this shift opens doors to more profitable positive EV betting strategies. The creator shares personal experience and practical steps to transition, emphasizing that getting limited is an opportunity, not a setback.

### Key Points

- **Arbitrage window shrinking** [01:14] — Sportsbooks like Fanatics, ESPN Bet, BetMGM, and Hard Rock are now identifying arbitrage patterns and limiting accounts faster than before.
- **Faster account limitations** [01:57] — Account limits used to take months to hit; now they can occur in weeks or even days, as shown with BetMGM and Bally Bet examples.
- **Limited accounts as testing grounds** [02:12] — Limited accounts are perfect for testing positive EV betting with small stakes, minimizing risk while learning.
- **Positive EV vs. arbitrage returns** [02:56] — Positive EV betting offers 10-20% returns on wins with a 55% win rate, compared to 2-5% returns with arbitrage.
- **Using OddsJam for positive EV** [03:26] — Use OddsJam's positive EV tool to find bets with over 5% edge, like Francisco Lindor at +460 vs. Pinnacle's +346.
- **Testing parlays and round-robins** [04:21] — Start with single straight wagers, then test parlays and round-robin bets to expand skills and profit potential.
- **Transition steps** [05:44] — Steps: identify lowest-limit accounts, start small, keep detailed records, and gradually move to parlays.

## Transcript

worse. And if you're making money pregame arbitrage betting, what I'm about to tell you might sound like bad news at first, but stick with me because this could actually be the best thing that ever happened to you in your sports
betting career. I've been arbitrage betting for 4 years. I've made thousands using the strategy. But like every successful arbitrage better, I eventually hit the wall that everyone faces but nobody talks about. Here's
channels and software companies won't tell you. The arbitrage betting landscape has fundamentally changed. The old strategies that worked in 2022 and old strategies that worked in 2022 and 2023 are becoming less and less viable.
But here's the twist. This problem actually opens the doors to other strategies that can be more profitable than arbitrage betting ever was, and most bettors never discover them because they're too comfortable with risk-free
you exactly what's going on with arbitrage betting, why this is good news, and then show you the specific strategies that you should be testing right now. Let me be brutally honest about what's going on right now with
pre-match arbitrage betting. The window of opportunity is shrinking fast. Sports of opportunity is shrinking fast. Sports books like Fanatics, ESPN Bet, BM MGM, and Hard Rock are getting smarter about identifying arbitrage patterns. when
they see a bunch of money flow in on a small niche player prop market like NBA turnovers, it's pretty simple to look at the bets that were placed within a certain time frame and figure out if this is an actual stale line that
arbitrage betters are taking advantage of. I've experienced this firsthand across multiple accounts. Looking at BenMGM over four and a half strikeouts on Udarish for a $100 wager size. Oh, I can only place this for $13.29.
Hey, over at Ballet Bet, let's place a wager for 25 bucks on Matt Olsen to hit a home run. Guess what? I can only place this wager for $6.56. It used to take months getting limited by a sports book. Now it takes weeks,
and in some cases, it can be a few days. But here's what most arbitrage betters don't realize. When your accounts get limited, you're not out of the game. you're in the perfect position to test something out that could be even more
profitable. When your accounts get limited to five or $50, like I just showed you on Bet MGM and Ballet Bet, you've just been handed the perfect testing grounds for positive expected
value betting. And this is where most arbitrage betterers make a huge mistake. You see, arbitrage bers get addicted to the risk-free money, and the thought of placing a bet that could actually lose feels wrong. With pre-match arbitrage
betting, you're making between a 2 to 5% return on large amounts of money. With positive EV betting, you might have a 55% win rate, but when you win, you're 55% win rate, but when you win, you're making 10 to 20% returns. The variance
is higher, but the profit potential is massive. And those limited accounts, they're perfect for testing because you can't lose much money while learning the strategy. Here's how to use your limited accounts as a positive EV testing
ground. Start with single straight wagers using odds jam's positive EV tool. Looking at Francisco Lindor to go deep tonight against the Guardians over at Ballet Bet. We're receiving incredible odds of plus 460. A sharp
sports book like Pinnacle thinks that this should be at plus 346. So, a $10 wager over at Caesars is going to pay you out $34. That same $10 wager is going to pay you out $46 on Ballet Bet. Literally, there's an extra $12 in your
pocket placing this bet over at Ballet Bet. So, I'm going to go ahead and try to just place a $25 wager on Lindor. But, as you're going to see, I am going to be limited to $7.84. And that's okay. This is a very small
wager size for my bankroll. And this is a long shot underdog, but this gives me an opportunity to test out positive EV betting. And as you noticed, we're looking for plays that are above a 5% edge. So when you have limited accounts
edge. So when you have limited accounts for $5 to $50, you can test out 20 to 30 bets and get a real feel for how positive EV betting works without risking significant money. Guys, if you want to try Odds Jam one week for free
and then save 35% off your first month after the oneweek trial ends, use code Billy C. It'll be linked in the description below. Once you're comfortable with single bets, you can test out positive EV parlays and
roundroin betting. These strategies can turn small bets into significant wins, and your limited accounts are the perfect place to learn. So over here for Monterey and this Minnesota United play, I'm going to place a two-leg parlay.
Both of these plays have over a 5% edge. $10 on this parlay. What you're going to find out is I'm going to get limited to $4.80. But that's okay. This is the perfect
grounds for me to test out two leg parlays where both of these plays have positive expected value. Then I can come over here to OddsJam and simply just type in $4.80. 80s. And as you can see over at Ballet Bet, we're getting paid
out a lot more compared to DraftKings on this parlay. And while it's a small amount of money, again, we're just testing out new strategies. I've used my limited accounts to test out different parlays and strategies, taking my $5
bonus bets, turning them into thousands of dollars of profit. The key is finding multiple positive expected value bets, and combining them intelligently. If you're currently successful with arbitrage betting, don't stop. But be
prepared for the inevitable and start placing some of your limited accounts off to the side for positive EV testing. The first step is to identify which of your accounts has the lowest limits. That's what you're going to use for
testing. The next step is to start small with your positive EV bets to learn the ropes. So, if some of you have accounts that maybe you could bet up to $50, let's just knock that down to a smaller bet size that you're comfortable with
because this is a brand new arena. The third step is keeping detailed records of all of the bets that you're placing in this testing phase. And that's where either you can use OddsJam's bet tracker in their notes section or simply save
one account for picket. And then when you track your picket, you can see that you know with this sports book, we're only placing bets utilizing one specific strategy. Once you gain confidence with positive EV, this is where you want to
dip your toes into parlays and roundroin betting. Use this as an opportunity to expand your sports betting skill set beyond arbitrage betting. Remember, getting limited isn't the end of your sports betting journey. It's an
opportunity for a new profitable chapter. So, yes, the arbitrage situation in 2025 has gotten worse. These sports books have caught up to speed looking at different patterns and behaviors when it comes to this type of
strategy. But that's opened the door for new profitable opportunities. And if you want the breadandbut recipe on how I've cooked up various different parlays, turning small amounts of money into thousands of dollars, then click this
video right here. I break down my biggest wins and explain you specifically what I look for so that you can copy and paste this strategy for can copy and paste this strategy for yourself and start earning right