--- title: 'The real reason gas prices are plummeting' source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=wgGipj3AotI' video_id: 'wgGipj3AotI' date: 2026-08-01 duration_sec: 338 --- # The real reason gas prices are plummeting > Source: [The real reason gas prices are plummeting](https://youtube.com/watch?v=wgGipj3AotI) ## Summary In this interview, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan explains the recent drop in U.S. gas prices, which fell from a May peak of $4.57 to below $3.80 just in time for July 4th. The discussion covers the factors behind the decline, the outlook for further drops, and why a return to $2.50 gasoline is unlikely. ### Key Points - **National average down 80 cents from May peak** [00:14] — Gas prices peaked at $4.57 a gallon in May and have since dropped 80 cents to below $3.80, according to GasBuddy. The decline is about 5% faster than the drop seen in 2022 after prices hit $5. - **38 states below $4 for July 4th** [00:44] — Just ahead of July 4th, 38 states now have gas prices below $4 a gallon. However, the national average is still about 65 cents higher than it was a year ago. - **Holiday travel impact** [01:10] — High gas prices generally don't stop July 4th travel, but falling prices may encourage longer trips and more boating. Because the holiday falls on a Saturday, demand destruction is expected to be minimal. - **Outlook for $3 gasoline** [01:52] — Getting back to $3 is possible, but it depends on the Strait of Hormuz staying open. Wild cards include a heat dome that could impact refineries and ongoing tensions with Iran. - **Why Trump's $2.50 target is unrealistic** [02:45] — President Trump's call for $2.50 gas ignores gasoline taxes that have risen, refinery capacity constraints, expensive summer blends, and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, all of which keep prices elevated. - **Hawaii overtakes California as most expensive** [04:07] — Hawaii now has the highest gas prices, closely followed by California. The West Coast and Northeast have the nation's highest taxes and capacity issues. - **Cheapest gas in Indiana and Gulf Coast** [05:00] — Indiana has temporarily suspended its excise and use tax, leading to several stations below $3. Texas, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast also offer sub-$3 gasoline. ### Conclusion Gas prices are falling just in time for July 4th, but structural factors like refinery constraints, taxes, and geopolitical risks mean a return to $2.50 gasoline is unlikely in the near term. ## Transcript national average, listen, it's been lower heading into July 4th here. How How meaningful is this relief for consumers broadly, Patrick, after months of of pressure at the pump? What do you >> Yeah, you know, it's pretty sizable. The national average peaked in May at $4.57 a gallon. It's down now 80 cents a gallon. We've heard a lot from the president on the pace of decline. And actually, looking at the decline, it's actually a faster decline than what we saw in 2022 after the national average hit $5. Only a 5% faster decline, but still a gas prices continuing to fall. GasBuddy data now showing the national average below the $3.80 mark nationally. Some states 38 states now with gas prices below $4 a gallon just in time for July 4th. Now, to put it in a context, the national average still about 65 cents above last year. So, Americans still shelling out more this anticipation with gas prices reaching $4.57, you know, to see 38 states back below the $4 gallon mark just in time for July 4th is certainly terrific news. >> Do you think gas prices are lower enough, Patrick, that they'll actually Is it lower enough to impact travel weekend? Like, do you think more people will will hit the road because of it? holiday traditions, myself included, which was why I'm here in Michigan myself. You know, high gas prices generally don't hold people back on July 4th. Now, whether they'll travel further distances or put the boat in the water, those types of small demand really can be impacted by high prices, but July 4th, we get three good summer holidays a year, Memorial Day, July 4th, and Labor Day. And this falling on a Saturday this year, probably not much demand destruction even with gas prices going up. With them coming down, you might see people using more gasoline, running the boat longer over the holiday weekend. Patrick? Where do you think they head from here? Like, put a number on it. You know, are we going to get back to $3 in the in the near to intermediate term? absolutely a possibility, but if it's a reality, well, the Strait of Hormuz will have to continue to be open. And one wild card here has been refineries. With the heat dome amongst much of the country in the Midwest and the Northeast, refineries could actually be impacted by this ultra-high temperatures that are happening. And that could impact gas prices down the road. Whether or not we go lower or continue to see falling prices really contingent on Iran. We've seen a lot of back and forth. You know, I'm going to be hopeful that we'll continue to sort this out. And maybe if everything goes well, gas range by the time Labor Day rolls around. >> Patrick, what what did you make of President Trump's comments, by the way? You saw this, of course, saying gasoline retailers must get prices down immediately. Uh warned there would be big problems if they don't start targeting around the $2.50 a gallon number, the president says. What did you >> Yeah, you know, I love it because this is something a lot of Americans grapple with. They look at the price of oil and they say, "Well, the last time oil was that, look at 15 years ago, the price of oil was 70, and we had a much, much doesn't take into consideration uh gasoline taxes, which have gone up in of decades. It doesn't take into consideration refineries, which, you know, I mentioned the heat wave right now. Refinery production, um you know, but if you don't have enough refineries, that's going to keep prices higher. And now. The Strait of Hormuz, you can't get refined products through there. One wild card that not many are mentioning, the Ukraine attacks on Russian refineries is keeping refined product prices elevated. So, the president would love to see this magic ratio return, but that's It's not going to happen anytime soon. Keep in expensive summer blends of gasoline, and demand is higher as well. So, you know, I'd love to put to bed that this magical ratio of oil should be X and gasoline doesn't take into consideration what's happening at the nation's refineries. >> Let's talk regional differences, Patrick. Which state has the highest prices at the pump right now? Is it still my my native state of California? >> Well, briefly, Hawaii has actually taken that over from the California. It's still not getting that, but looking at the latest GasBuddy data, it's very close between Hawaii and California. You see that map there, the West Coast, the of the nation's highest taxes, and then the Northeast. These are areas where capacity. The West Coast and the Northeast. Illinois, well, they have a high gasoline taxes. And Michigan, of course, fed by those refineries in knock on wood that this huge heat wave doesn't have a negative impact on mentioned is really holding up gas prices from seeing a bigger decline. I think after this interview, I'm going to go hide in this gas station's beer cave >> That sounds like a good afternoon plan, my friend. Hey, listen, we got the highest. I'm just curious, where where would I find the cheapest gas right now? >> Well, right now, surprisingly and for the next week, Indiana. The nation's they're they've suspended their excise and use tax. So, Indiana, finding several stations below $3. You can find sub $3 gasoline on and off in areas like Texas and Oklahoma as well. So, use the GasBuddy app, you can find those sub $3 prices, but generally, the Gulf Coast, the nation's Mecca for refining and oil production, is where you'll find the cheapest July 4th prices. >> Patrick, love the live shot. Always love having you on the show. Thank you. >> Thank you. Appreciate it.