---
title: 'Under/Over Football Betting Strategy to Win Repeatedly – Football Betting'
source: 'https://youtube.com/watch?v=Q4D8RRHbWkw'
video_id: 'Q4D8RRHbWkw'
date: 2026-07-06
duration_sec: 0
---

# Under/Over Football Betting Strategy to Win Repeatedly – Football Betting

> Source: [Under/Over Football Betting Strategy to Win Repeatedly – Football Betting](https://youtube.com/watch?v=Q4D8RRHbWkw)

## Summary

This video reveals a football betting strategy focused on the over/under 2.5 goals market, targeting low-quality matches where sportsbook pricing is less sharp. By comparing Betfair exchange odds to sportsbook odds, the strategy identifies value bets that yield long-term profit despite a losing record on individual bets.

### Key Points

- **Strategy Overview** [00:01] — A simple betting strategy that wins repeatedly over 30 days, relying on basic indicators anyone can find daily.
- **First 10 Days Results** [01:00] — 16 bets at £50 stakes: 7 wins, 9 losses (43.75% strike rate). Average odds 2.66, profit £112.50.
- **Identifying Value** [02:27] — Compare Betfair exchange odds (true price) to sportsbook odds. If sportsbook odds are higher than exchange midpoint, it's a value bet.
- **Day 20 Results** [03:38] — 33 bets: 18 losses, 15 wins (45.45% strike rate). Average odds 2.63, profit £300.50.
- **Target Low Quality Matches** [04:32] — Strategy works best on low-quality football (not Premier League) because sportsbooks monitor popular matches closely, making odds sharper.
- **Timing and Alerts** [05:24] — Best time to find value is 6-12 hours before match start when liquidity is forming. Automated alerts can help.
- **Account Restrictions** [05:50] — Bookies may restrict accounts for consistent winners. Example: Betfair restricted stakes to £0.10-£2.42. Use multiple sportsbooks.
- **Full 30 Days Results** [06:29] — 50 bets: 27 losses, 23 wins (46% strike rate). Average odds 2.637, break-even odds 2.17, value margin 0.467. Profit £534.50.

### Conclusion

The strategy consistently finds value by betting on over/under 2.5 goals in low-quality matches, yielding a reliable profit over time despite individual losses. However, account restrictions from bookies are a downside, requiring multiple accounts.

## Transcript

want to see a football betting strategy that wins repeatedly check this out simple betting strategy over the space of 30 days in excel i'm gonna reveal all strategy works why it's a repeat winner and how it secures a substantial profit
it relies on a couple of basic indicators that anyone can find each day as you'll see in just a second but first i need to explain why it worked indicators without understanding and it's way more useful than giving out
football betting tips as you'll be able to identify these opportunities for yourself sometimes the situation evolves and prices change whilst looking for them so doing it this way gives you maximum value if you agree smash the
because if you like betting on the unders and overs market this is the best strategy that you'll ever see here are the results for the first 10 strategy look you can see it doesn't
guarantee a winner on every bet although i repeatedly win more than i lose whilst using it there were 16 bets to level 50 pound stakes with only 7 of them winning pound stakes with only 7 of them winning 9 loss producing a strike rate of 43.75
9 loss producing a strike rate of 43.75 getting average odds of 2.29 on each bet we didn't get odds representing the strike rate we got average odds of 2.66 over those 16 bets leaving a profit of 112 pounds and 50 pence at day 10. now
don't panic if that went over your head it's super simple and i'm going to explain further but the point i'm making here is the selections were a higher mathematically if i keep doing this it
means that i win more than i lose in the long run and that's a fact nobody can trying this strategy works because it focuses on repeatedly getting value odds which means i'm guaranteed to win it's the same reason that betting companies
make millions every week because they can't predict the future either it's value proposition is the other way around on my side to illustrate if i reduce the average odds of my 10 days results to a price below the 2.29
average the final result would have been a loss and that's how a sports book makes a profit so let me explain exactly how the strategy works and how i'm the best places where the opportunities arise and why
so take a look at my screen here showing argentinian match odds on the left we have the odds of betfair's exchange exchanges are the best guide to true price in real time there's not a huge amount of money in the market but you
can see that over 2.5 goals odds are between 2.36 and 2.6 now there's a gap in the price spread but the market is telling us that it believes the true prices for reference the midpoint between those two prices is 2.48 now if
on the right hand side of the screen bearing in mind it doesn't include commission on bets you'll see that the sportsbook is providing some value here the corresponding over 2.5 goals bet is currently priced at 2.55 on the
sportsbook higher than the midpoint of 2.48 on the exchange the reason i'm highlighting this is because it's a clear indicator that the sportsbooks bet is overpriced in this instance betting on it means we get a bigger price than
the marketplace deems the bet is worth it's a value pick by repeatedly betting it will win eventually even if we encounter a string of losing bets it's and believe in the maths because the
strategy doesn't work if we start chasing losses taking a smaller price or getting emotional about short-term variance in results distribution in results can be erratic at the best of times but long-term probability brings
them into the line looking at the results by day 20 you can see that this is true there'd been 33 bets in total with 18 losers yielding a strike rate of 45.45 equivalent to odds of 2.2 on average
meaning if the bet had been priced at 2.2 i would have broken even but here's the really important bit i want you to understand here by using this strategy the average odds were actually 2.63 significantly higher than they should
have been which is why the results stand a profit of 300 pounds and 50 pence and situations to find value like this on a daily basis and also what did the results look like by day 30 now you've
premier league matches amongst the results here and there's a very good reason for this i've specifically targeted low quality football here because this is where the strategy is most effective sportsbooks take millions
of bets on football every day of the week and most of them are on the popular matches such as those in the premier league which means they spend a lot more time and money monitoring and changing their odds to make sure they have a good
margin built into the prices that they offer it's opposite of what we're looking to do here with this strategy in effect they're making sure that odds are bad value and extremely hard to beat in the majority of cases this strategy
works repeatedly on unders better markets on the low quality stuff because pricing isn't so sharp it's less likely that we'll find value in the market odds or on the premier league although it does happen from time to time now the
time i look for these bets is important too typically it's 6 to 12 hours before the match starts that the value is available finding them as the market liquidity is forming is best setting up automated alerts can help although i'm
not going to go through that in this video but before we go through the final results for the full 30 days there's something very important you need to strategy because there's a downside you can see it on my account here now it's a
shock for some recreational bettors that bookies don't allow repeat winning for long despite advertising the opportunity to win they're sore losers when the don't play fair bet fair of stake restricted my account for winning now
they'll only let me state between 10 pence and 2 pound 42 on this bet they do it to anyone that consistently beaten them on their sports but it's proof that the strategy works and they know it although it is frustrating as it limits
you want to win repeatedly with this football betting strategy into the future you'll need to use multiple sports books or require extra accounts so let's see how i did over the 30 days and calculate the value margin for this
strategy if you're getting value please subscribe down below so over the course of 50 bets in 30 days 27 of my over under bets lost 23 over one leaving a total strike rate of 46 there were one to three bets per day the
price and time of the bet is logged in line with the betfair sportsbook you can see the corresponding over and under bet and its final result to the right of the spreadsheet given the ratio of winners to losers it means the average betting
odds would have had need to be 2.17 to break even however the average odds we got were actually 2.637 meaning there was a margin of 0.467 on our side on average nearly half a
price point of value is big when it's a polarizer market where there are only two outcomes like this to level 50 pound stakes this football betting strategy stakes this football betting strategy yielded a profit of 534 pounds 50 over
30 days which isn't a huge result but it's extremely reliable unlike football accumulators as i explained here in this video if you've ever placed an accumulated bet you just have to see it thanks for watching i'll see you next
thanks for watching i'll see you next time